Week 2: 11-5
Year-to-Date: 20-12
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) (PHI -3.5)
Are the Eagles just going to have inflated lines all week. I can't wait to beg against their inflated line next week in Denver. Anyway, earlier this week I made the comparison between the 2013 Chiefs and the last surprise Alex Smith team, the 2011 49ers. Those 49ers also played a close game against Dallas in Week 2 (they lost, the Chiefs won) and had an early season road trip to an overhyped Eagles team (they won). I think this Chiefs team at least covers this line. The Chiefs talent on defense is ridiculous, built much like the 49ers with a bunch of high draft picks coming together at the same time. They are the perfect ball control tough defense type of team to beat Philadelphia, and I think they do. I believe in Andy Reid and Alex Smith. But more than them, I believe in Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Dontari Poe, Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry.
Chiefs 23 Eagles 20 (KC +3.5)
Cleveland Browns (0-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2) (MIN -7)
This line seems a little high when considering how good the Browns defense has played at times through two games. They have a lot of talent on defense, enough so that had they gotten Andy Reid and Alex Smith, maybe they become the 2013 Chiefs instead. Of course, they have Brandon Weeden, but now they don't even have him, they have Brian Hoyer. The Browns GM is Mike Lombardi, who came off as a babbling idiot in his many appearances on The BS Report. How he possibly got another job as a GM is beyond me, and he's so far traded away their best offensive player and is now strarting Tom Brady's backup who has been terrible in limited action. I was all ready to bet on the Vikings here, but how can I with Brian Hoyer. This is a really tough game to bet, and if I was risking real dollars, I probably would stay away.
Browns 10 Vikings 20 (MIN -7)
San Diego Chargers (1-1) @ Tennessee Titans (1-1) (TEN -3)
The line is essentially saying the Charger and Titans are even teams, and I think that is giving too much credit to Tennessee. I guess there could be some 10AM West Coast bias here, but the Chargers just won on the East Coast LAST WEEK! The Chargers have a QB who has looked exactly like he used to when he was arguably the league's best QB from 2008-2010. Their defense looked bad against Philly, but was quite good against Houston the week before. Tennessee probably won't be able to win with a QB who throws for less than 200 yards in this one like they did in Week 1 and almost did once again in Week 2. The Chargers rush defense hasn't been great, but with Chris Johnson, it all has to do with the blocking he gets. They have the players in the secondary to contain whatever few targets Locker has to throw to. In the end, I just think San Diego is a better team getting great value here.
Chargers 27 Titans 17 (SD +3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) @ New England Patriots (2-0) (NE -7)
I hate this line. In two short weeks, Vegas went from overrating the Patriots to essentially treating them like a normal team for the first time in seven years. The Buccaneers are 0-2, but they could easily be 2-0, just like the Patriots could easily be 0-2 (or at least 1-1). The Patriots defense has played well, but this is the best pass offense they have faced so far (which says more about the Bills and Jets, really), and I could see Vincent Jackson having a nice game. The key is if they can give Josh Freeman time, which I just can't see happening too often. I don't foresee a great game from this Patriots offense because the problems they have aren't getting solved anytime soon, but so far they haven't faced an offense good enough to make the Pats score like they used to. That all changes next Sunday Night in Atlanta, but that comes later.
Buccaneers 16 Patriots 24 (NE -7)
Arizona Cardinals (1-1) @ New Orleans Saints (2-0) (NO -7.5)
Arizona just likes playing close games, I guess. The Cardinals actually won the last matchup between these two teams in 2010, picking off Brees three times in a shocking win in Arizona with Max Hall at QB. Yeah, that happened (the Saints also lost to a Colt McCoy led Browns team at home that year, too). The good thing for the Cardinals is that they don't need two defensive scores this time to stay with the Saints. I am still seeing all of the bad things that crept into Brees's game last year, like throwing wildly under pressure and inability to throw close to the goal line, and that offense is scoring less now than it did last year. Brees can put up the 300 yard games all he wants but they aren't translating into a lot of points. The Cardinals have a defense that can capitalize on any mistake, and if Larry Fitzerald is good and healthy, that offense can capitalize as well. I can see Rob Ryan's defense going horribly wrong here, but I want to see them fail once before I pick them to do so at home (maybe in New England in two weeks).
Cardinals 20 Saints 30 (NO -7.5)
Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Washington Redskins (0-2) (WAS -1)
Why are the Redskins favored here? Until ultra-garbage time, Griffin has looked totally hampered. Their defense has been historically putrid through two games. They've been down a combined 50-7 at halftime of their first two games. On the other side, the Lions have looked quite good, even in their loss in Arizona, a place that many teams look bad in each of the past few years. The Lions have exactly the type of defense to really bother Wilson, with relentless pressure up the gut, making whatever little foundation he has in those legs even more impaired. On the other side, the Lions offense should chew up the Redskins defense, and I can see Calvin doing some bad, bad things. Again, why exactly is Washington favored here? I'm so scared to be so confident.
Lions 34 Redskins 17 (DET +1)
St. Louis Rams (1-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1) (DAL -3.5)
Underdogs have generally been good the past few years and the same has been true this year. I've already picked four underdogs out of the first six games, and I'm leaning towards picking the Rams here as well. Tony Romo has struggled against teams that can rush him with just four throughout his career (Giants, Vikings in that ill-fated playoff game), and the Rams defense, while giving up some big plays in the first few games, has generally toughened up as the game went on. They gave up just 24 offensive points in Atlanta last week, for instance, and that Falcons offense I do like more than Dallas. My worry is whether Sam Bradford and the Rams offense can really do work against the Cowboys defense. Dallas has looked good in Monte Kiffin's defense so far, and it has had no impact in Demarcus Ware's effectiveness. In the end, I have no idea what to do. I would definitely stay away if I was betting real money, but I'll go with my gut for now.
Rams 20 Cowboys 21 (STL +3.5)
New York Giants (0-2) @ Carolina Panthers (0-2) (NYG -2)
I had a long explanation of the matchups and the Panthers offense against a bad (so far) Giants defense, and the Giants offense against a depleted secondary that has only become more depleted as time has gone on. But then I read the tragic story of Tom Coughlin's brother dying after a freak accident when attending the Giants/Broncos game last Sunday. It is a terrible, terribly story. My thoughts and prayers are with Tom's Brother's family, Tom's family and everyone involved. Anyway, what I mean to say is after reading that, if the Giants can't turn their season around with that motivation, then I'm giving up on them forever.
Giants 27 Panthers 20 (NYG -2)
Houston Texans (2-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-1) (HOU -2.5)
Interesting game here. It is the second of the 6 games between the Big-4 (Texans, Patriots, Broncos, Ravens - the winners of the four AFC Divisions two years running), and with most coming late in the season (Broncos @ Texans and Patriots @ Ravens on the same day in Week 16). The first was the opener, so this is the first game when we know something about the teams performance in the current season (though not much more). What we do know is the Ravens through loss of personnel and injury have an offense that doesn't even resemble what it was in last year's regular season. Now, news is slowly coming in that Ray Rice may miss the game as well. Houston has not played good football but is still 2-0, but unlike in New England, where the bad football is due to not having as good personnel, in Houston it is more just good players not playing really well. Andre Johnson will play, as will Ed Reed, and I can see the Texans defense playing really well just with the emotional return of Reed to Baltimore. Honestly, I think even Ravens' fans would love to see a Pick-6 by Ed Reed. I don't know if they will see that, but I think they see their team lose.
Texans 24 Ravens 16 (HOU -2.5)
Green Bay Packers (1-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) (GB -3)
Really tough game to pick here. The Bengals defense may not have as many sacks as people would have thought, but have given up just 31 points and the 6th fewest yards in the league. The one thing I know is that they will most likely shut down that run game completely, which will put a lot on Aaron Rodgers. Of course, Rodgers is good enough to handle that, but he will be under durress all game long. This is the type of team that can give Rodgers a lot of trouble: shut down the run game, tee off on Rodgers behind that bad O-Line. Seattle did this in the Fail Mary game. The 49ers have done this three times running. Cincinnati themselves did this in 2009, sacking Rodgers' 8 times. Of course, the other side of this is if the Bengals offense can score enough on the Packers defense. The Packers defense looked good in the 1st half against the Redskins, but that might say as much about the Redskins offense right now. Dalton is behind a good O-Line, and the Bengals have enough targets now to take advantage of that injured secondary. Personally, I think the Bengals are, in totality, about as good of a team, and they are at home. Either way, I think the winner of this game goes on a really nice run to start the season.
Packers 24 Bengals 27 (CIN +3)
Buffalo Bills (1-1) @ New York Jets (1-1) (NYJ -2.5)
Terrible game. Worst part is, since I live in the NYC TV Market, this game gets the 4:25 PM slot on CBS. Thankfully, I also live in the Philly TV Market, so I can avoid this like the plague. What you have here is really two even teams. Both run offenses based off a running QB. The Jets will throw more, which they shouldn't given those WRs, and the Bills will run more. The Bills offense seems more directed and focused right now. On the other side, the Jets defense is better. The Jets defense has actually played really well so far in 2013. They did great work against Tampa Bay and then dominated the Patriots offense in a way no one has really done since maybe the Jets themselves in the 2010 season. They made Brady look lost. They should do at least the same to EJ Manuel. I hate trusting the Jets offense, especially when they have to win for the bet to come in, but they usually do well against marginal teams.
Bills 17 Jets 21 (NYJ -2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-0) (SEA -20)
There's no analysis to this game at all. Teams that are favored by 20 are 4-11 ATS. That's not good. That's about as good of a trend as you get. Sure, there is a small sample, but that is because usually there isn't a good reason for any team to be favored by 20 points against another. It is hard to make any case for the Jaguars, but all they have to do is not lose by three TDs.
Jaguars 10 Seahawks 27 (JAX +20)
Indianapolis Colts (1-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-1) (SF -10)
This game looked a lot nicer eight days ago, before Luck lost the 'money at home' and 'money in a close 4th Quarter game' mystique and before the 49ers were depantsed in Seattle. I have seen a lot of people play the '49ers will be angry and take it out on the Colts' card, but is there proof of that actually happening. It seems like the rationale people used to use when betting the line on New England after losses, and while New England usually won the next game, they didn't always cover. Of course, the 49ers are just better than Indianapolis, and the line honestly could be higher and still get good action on both sides. The Colts offense did a decent job against a good pass rush last week, but the 49ers, on the road, is a different animal. The Colts defense will get their first test against one of the Pistol-QBs, which seen how bad they did against Terrelly Pryor in Week 1 could get ugly. By the way, I hated the Trent Richardson trade, but that is neither here nor there. I hate betting teams to cover double digit lines, and I can't get myself to do it here.
Colts 21 49ers 28 (IND +10)
Atlanta Falcons (1-1) @ Miami Dolphins (2-0) (MIA -2)
Nice game here on FOX. Of course, FOX is choosing to show Giants @ Panthers at 1PM instead of this game in the Philly area, but I digress. This is a nice early season test for Miami. So far, the Dolphins have played two road games and won both. The teams they beat are at best middle-of-the-road AFC teams and now they get what seems to be at worst a solid NFC team, which is a steady jump up. The Dolphins are a solid team, but I am not ready to trust them to cover against a good team like this. Even if they lose here, they can still do well this season.
Falcons 27 Dolphins 20 (ATL +2)
Chicago Bears (2-0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2) (CHI -2.5)
This game also looked a lot nicer before the season, didn't it. I can't believe that out of the four teams I picked to make the Conference Title Games, three are 0-2 (of course, Denver is a beautiful 2-0). Overall, out of my 12 predicted playoff teams, there are those three at 0-2 and the Broncos, Patriots and Texans are 2-0, with the Packers, Lions, Chargers, Bengals, 49ers and Falcons are at 1-1. That means nothing for this game, but just a nice little update of how I am doing. As for this game, I can't see the Steelers at 0-3, and I don't think the Bears are a good 2-0 (of course, few teams are in 2013). The Bears could struggle in this game, but the Steelers haven't showed any consistent ability to rush the passer. The Steelers are just so out of sync offensively right now. So many times Roethlisberger lofted up deep balls that were well thrown, but his outside guys just aren't fast enough. Of course, with some better luck (like not having the Paulsen fumble or the really shady 'tripping' penalty wipe out a 40-yard play) they might beat Cincinnati anyway. In this AFC, the Steelers are still alive, but they need this game. Chicago doesn't. To me, that is what it comes to.
Bears 17 Steelers 20 (PIT +2.5)
Oakland Raiders (1-1) @ Denver Broncos (2-0) (DEN -16.5)
Teams favored by 20 or more do terribly. Teams favored by 16-17 do about as bad. I don't have any good number for that one, but it happens far more frequently. I think the Broncos win and probably win by 10, but that last TD spread is what matters here. The Raiders have shown ability to at least run the ball, which could shorten this game (it is harder to win by more when the game is shorter in terms of possessions), but the Broncos are the best rush defense in the NFL right now. The Broncos in the Manning era haven't faced any of the running QBs (and Pryor is a good warmup for the Eagles next week and RGIII in a month or so), but I don't think they'll have any problems with their speed at LB and the good tackling of their secondary. If the Broncos can get an early lead, they should cover this easily since their corners should shut down the marginal Raiders receivers, but with the Broncos propensity to start slowly, that early lead is far from a given. In the end, I don't know where to go with this game. But then I think this: Manning is great in primetime, especially at home. They've won by 22 and 18 so far against better teams. Why not take the Broncos.
Raiders 14 Broncos 38 (DEN -16.5)
Enjoy the Games!!!
Year-to-Date: 20-12
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) (PHI -3.5)
Are the Eagles just going to have inflated lines all week. I can't wait to beg against their inflated line next week in Denver. Anyway, earlier this week I made the comparison between the 2013 Chiefs and the last surprise Alex Smith team, the 2011 49ers. Those 49ers also played a close game against Dallas in Week 2 (they lost, the Chiefs won) and had an early season road trip to an overhyped Eagles team (they won). I think this Chiefs team at least covers this line. The Chiefs talent on defense is ridiculous, built much like the 49ers with a bunch of high draft picks coming together at the same time. They are the perfect ball control tough defense type of team to beat Philadelphia, and I think they do. I believe in Andy Reid and Alex Smith. But more than them, I believe in Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Dontari Poe, Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry.
Chiefs 23 Eagles 20 (KC +3.5)
Cleveland Browns (0-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2) (MIN -7)
This line seems a little high when considering how good the Browns defense has played at times through two games. They have a lot of talent on defense, enough so that had they gotten Andy Reid and Alex Smith, maybe they become the 2013 Chiefs instead. Of course, they have Brandon Weeden, but now they don't even have him, they have Brian Hoyer. The Browns GM is Mike Lombardi, who came off as a babbling idiot in his many appearances on The BS Report. How he possibly got another job as a GM is beyond me, and he's so far traded away their best offensive player and is now strarting Tom Brady's backup who has been terrible in limited action. I was all ready to bet on the Vikings here, but how can I with Brian Hoyer. This is a really tough game to bet, and if I was risking real dollars, I probably would stay away.
Browns 10 Vikings 20 (MIN -7)
San Diego Chargers (1-1) @ Tennessee Titans (1-1) (TEN -3)
The line is essentially saying the Charger and Titans are even teams, and I think that is giving too much credit to Tennessee. I guess there could be some 10AM West Coast bias here, but the Chargers just won on the East Coast LAST WEEK! The Chargers have a QB who has looked exactly like he used to when he was arguably the league's best QB from 2008-2010. Their defense looked bad against Philly, but was quite good against Houston the week before. Tennessee probably won't be able to win with a QB who throws for less than 200 yards in this one like they did in Week 1 and almost did once again in Week 2. The Chargers rush defense hasn't been great, but with Chris Johnson, it all has to do with the blocking he gets. They have the players in the secondary to contain whatever few targets Locker has to throw to. In the end, I just think San Diego is a better team getting great value here.
Chargers 27 Titans 17 (SD +3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) @ New England Patriots (2-0) (NE -7)
I hate this line. In two short weeks, Vegas went from overrating the Patriots to essentially treating them like a normal team for the first time in seven years. The Buccaneers are 0-2, but they could easily be 2-0, just like the Patriots could easily be 0-2 (or at least 1-1). The Patriots defense has played well, but this is the best pass offense they have faced so far (which says more about the Bills and Jets, really), and I could see Vincent Jackson having a nice game. The key is if they can give Josh Freeman time, which I just can't see happening too often. I don't foresee a great game from this Patriots offense because the problems they have aren't getting solved anytime soon, but so far they haven't faced an offense good enough to make the Pats score like they used to. That all changes next Sunday Night in Atlanta, but that comes later.
Buccaneers 16 Patriots 24 (NE -7)
Arizona Cardinals (1-1) @ New Orleans Saints (2-0) (NO -7.5)
Arizona just likes playing close games, I guess. The Cardinals actually won the last matchup between these two teams in 2010, picking off Brees three times in a shocking win in Arizona with Max Hall at QB. Yeah, that happened (the Saints also lost to a Colt McCoy led Browns team at home that year, too). The good thing for the Cardinals is that they don't need two defensive scores this time to stay with the Saints. I am still seeing all of the bad things that crept into Brees's game last year, like throwing wildly under pressure and inability to throw close to the goal line, and that offense is scoring less now than it did last year. Brees can put up the 300 yard games all he wants but they aren't translating into a lot of points. The Cardinals have a defense that can capitalize on any mistake, and if Larry Fitzerald is good and healthy, that offense can capitalize as well. I can see Rob Ryan's defense going horribly wrong here, but I want to see them fail once before I pick them to do so at home (maybe in New England in two weeks).
Cardinals 20 Saints 30 (NO -7.5)
Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Washington Redskins (0-2) (WAS -1)
Why are the Redskins favored here? Until ultra-garbage time, Griffin has looked totally hampered. Their defense has been historically putrid through two games. They've been down a combined 50-7 at halftime of their first two games. On the other side, the Lions have looked quite good, even in their loss in Arizona, a place that many teams look bad in each of the past few years. The Lions have exactly the type of defense to really bother Wilson, with relentless pressure up the gut, making whatever little foundation he has in those legs even more impaired. On the other side, the Lions offense should chew up the Redskins defense, and I can see Calvin doing some bad, bad things. Again, why exactly is Washington favored here? I'm so scared to be so confident.
Lions 34 Redskins 17 (DET +1)
St. Louis Rams (1-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1) (DAL -3.5)
Underdogs have generally been good the past few years and the same has been true this year. I've already picked four underdogs out of the first six games, and I'm leaning towards picking the Rams here as well. Tony Romo has struggled against teams that can rush him with just four throughout his career (Giants, Vikings in that ill-fated playoff game), and the Rams defense, while giving up some big plays in the first few games, has generally toughened up as the game went on. They gave up just 24 offensive points in Atlanta last week, for instance, and that Falcons offense I do like more than Dallas. My worry is whether Sam Bradford and the Rams offense can really do work against the Cowboys defense. Dallas has looked good in Monte Kiffin's defense so far, and it has had no impact in Demarcus Ware's effectiveness. In the end, I have no idea what to do. I would definitely stay away if I was betting real money, but I'll go with my gut for now.
Rams 20 Cowboys 21 (STL +3.5)
New York Giants (0-2) @ Carolina Panthers (0-2) (NYG -2)
I had a long explanation of the matchups and the Panthers offense against a bad (so far) Giants defense, and the Giants offense against a depleted secondary that has only become more depleted as time has gone on. But then I read the tragic story of Tom Coughlin's brother dying after a freak accident when attending the Giants/Broncos game last Sunday. It is a terrible, terribly story. My thoughts and prayers are with Tom's Brother's family, Tom's family and everyone involved. Anyway, what I mean to say is after reading that, if the Giants can't turn their season around with that motivation, then I'm giving up on them forever.
Giants 27 Panthers 20 (NYG -2)
Houston Texans (2-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-1) (HOU -2.5)
Interesting game here. It is the second of the 6 games between the Big-4 (Texans, Patriots, Broncos, Ravens - the winners of the four AFC Divisions two years running), and with most coming late in the season (Broncos @ Texans and Patriots @ Ravens on the same day in Week 16). The first was the opener, so this is the first game when we know something about the teams performance in the current season (though not much more). What we do know is the Ravens through loss of personnel and injury have an offense that doesn't even resemble what it was in last year's regular season. Now, news is slowly coming in that Ray Rice may miss the game as well. Houston has not played good football but is still 2-0, but unlike in New England, where the bad football is due to not having as good personnel, in Houston it is more just good players not playing really well. Andre Johnson will play, as will Ed Reed, and I can see the Texans defense playing really well just with the emotional return of Reed to Baltimore. Honestly, I think even Ravens' fans would love to see a Pick-6 by Ed Reed. I don't know if they will see that, but I think they see their team lose.
Texans 24 Ravens 16 (HOU -2.5)
Green Bay Packers (1-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) (GB -3)
Really tough game to pick here. The Bengals defense may not have as many sacks as people would have thought, but have given up just 31 points and the 6th fewest yards in the league. The one thing I know is that they will most likely shut down that run game completely, which will put a lot on Aaron Rodgers. Of course, Rodgers is good enough to handle that, but he will be under durress all game long. This is the type of team that can give Rodgers a lot of trouble: shut down the run game, tee off on Rodgers behind that bad O-Line. Seattle did this in the Fail Mary game. The 49ers have done this three times running. Cincinnati themselves did this in 2009, sacking Rodgers' 8 times. Of course, the other side of this is if the Bengals offense can score enough on the Packers defense. The Packers defense looked good in the 1st half against the Redskins, but that might say as much about the Redskins offense right now. Dalton is behind a good O-Line, and the Bengals have enough targets now to take advantage of that injured secondary. Personally, I think the Bengals are, in totality, about as good of a team, and they are at home. Either way, I think the winner of this game goes on a really nice run to start the season.
Packers 24 Bengals 27 (CIN +3)
Buffalo Bills (1-1) @ New York Jets (1-1) (NYJ -2.5)
Terrible game. Worst part is, since I live in the NYC TV Market, this game gets the 4:25 PM slot on CBS. Thankfully, I also live in the Philly TV Market, so I can avoid this like the plague. What you have here is really two even teams. Both run offenses based off a running QB. The Jets will throw more, which they shouldn't given those WRs, and the Bills will run more. The Bills offense seems more directed and focused right now. On the other side, the Jets defense is better. The Jets defense has actually played really well so far in 2013. They did great work against Tampa Bay and then dominated the Patriots offense in a way no one has really done since maybe the Jets themselves in the 2010 season. They made Brady look lost. They should do at least the same to EJ Manuel. I hate trusting the Jets offense, especially when they have to win for the bet to come in, but they usually do well against marginal teams.
Bills 17 Jets 21 (NYJ -2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-0) (SEA -20)
There's no analysis to this game at all. Teams that are favored by 20 are 4-11 ATS. That's not good. That's about as good of a trend as you get. Sure, there is a small sample, but that is because usually there isn't a good reason for any team to be favored by 20 points against another. It is hard to make any case for the Jaguars, but all they have to do is not lose by three TDs.
Jaguars 10 Seahawks 27 (JAX +20)
Indianapolis Colts (1-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-1) (SF -10)
This game looked a lot nicer eight days ago, before Luck lost the 'money at home' and 'money in a close 4th Quarter game' mystique and before the 49ers were depantsed in Seattle. I have seen a lot of people play the '49ers will be angry and take it out on the Colts' card, but is there proof of that actually happening. It seems like the rationale people used to use when betting the line on New England after losses, and while New England usually won the next game, they didn't always cover. Of course, the 49ers are just better than Indianapolis, and the line honestly could be higher and still get good action on both sides. The Colts offense did a decent job against a good pass rush last week, but the 49ers, on the road, is a different animal. The Colts defense will get their first test against one of the Pistol-QBs, which seen how bad they did against Terrelly Pryor in Week 1 could get ugly. By the way, I hated the Trent Richardson trade, but that is neither here nor there. I hate betting teams to cover double digit lines, and I can't get myself to do it here.
Colts 21 49ers 28 (IND +10)
Atlanta Falcons (1-1) @ Miami Dolphins (2-0) (MIA -2)
Nice game here on FOX. Of course, FOX is choosing to show Giants @ Panthers at 1PM instead of this game in the Philly area, but I digress. This is a nice early season test for Miami. So far, the Dolphins have played two road games and won both. The teams they beat are at best middle-of-the-road AFC teams and now they get what seems to be at worst a solid NFC team, which is a steady jump up. The Dolphins are a solid team, but I am not ready to trust them to cover against a good team like this. Even if they lose here, they can still do well this season.
Falcons 27 Dolphins 20 (ATL +2)
Chicago Bears (2-0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2) (CHI -2.5)
This game also looked a lot nicer before the season, didn't it. I can't believe that out of the four teams I picked to make the Conference Title Games, three are 0-2 (of course, Denver is a beautiful 2-0). Overall, out of my 12 predicted playoff teams, there are those three at 0-2 and the Broncos, Patriots and Texans are 2-0, with the Packers, Lions, Chargers, Bengals, 49ers and Falcons are at 1-1. That means nothing for this game, but just a nice little update of how I am doing. As for this game, I can't see the Steelers at 0-3, and I don't think the Bears are a good 2-0 (of course, few teams are in 2013). The Bears could struggle in this game, but the Steelers haven't showed any consistent ability to rush the passer. The Steelers are just so out of sync offensively right now. So many times Roethlisberger lofted up deep balls that were well thrown, but his outside guys just aren't fast enough. Of course, with some better luck (like not having the Paulsen fumble or the really shady 'tripping' penalty wipe out a 40-yard play) they might beat Cincinnati anyway. In this AFC, the Steelers are still alive, but they need this game. Chicago doesn't. To me, that is what it comes to.
Bears 17 Steelers 20 (PIT +2.5)
Oakland Raiders (1-1) @ Denver Broncos (2-0) (DEN -16.5)
Teams favored by 20 or more do terribly. Teams favored by 16-17 do about as bad. I don't have any good number for that one, but it happens far more frequently. I think the Broncos win and probably win by 10, but that last TD spread is what matters here. The Raiders have shown ability to at least run the ball, which could shorten this game (it is harder to win by more when the game is shorter in terms of possessions), but the Broncos are the best rush defense in the NFL right now. The Broncos in the Manning era haven't faced any of the running QBs (and Pryor is a good warmup for the Eagles next week and RGIII in a month or so), but I don't think they'll have any problems with their speed at LB and the good tackling of their secondary. If the Broncos can get an early lead, they should cover this easily since their corners should shut down the marginal Raiders receivers, but with the Broncos propensity to start slowly, that early lead is far from a given. In the end, I don't know where to go with this game. But then I think this: Manning is great in primetime, especially at home. They've won by 22 and 18 so far against better teams. Why not take the Broncos.
Raiders 14 Broncos 38 (DEN -16.5)
Enjoy the Games!!!
