First a quick note about my NFL coverage on the blog. I'm starting work (actual work) tomorrow. I'll almost definitely have less time than ever to write about the NFL, because I'll have less time to even think about the NFL. I'll still make picks, but my hilariously long 'Power Rankings & The Rest' pieces will probably be massively trimmed or gone alltogether. Anyway, here are the picks for week 1.
(all lines from Sportsbook)
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7)
Since 2004, Peyton Manning is 10-2 in home night games. I don't know if this is true, but the '2' is. Anyway, until last year's divisional round, Peyton Manning hadn't lost to the Ravens since 2001. Well, that is over now. This used to be one of the greatest locks in football, the defending champion opening at home. Well, the Giants lost last year and now the Ravens have to open in Denver (New England really lucked out, as NE @ BAL would have probably been the opener). I'm happy the line isn't higher. Vegas really doesn't like the Ravens this year (their over/under is 8.5), but they're giving them some credit. The Broncos don't have Von Miller, but the Ravens don't have Boldin and Pitta, two people who really did well against the Broncos in the playoffs. Both teams have something to prove, but I feel like Manning angry is definitely better than Joe Flacco angry. Also, I don't know how to trust an Ed Reed-less and Ray Lewis-less defense just yet.
Ravens 20 @ Broncos 31 (DEN -7)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars (KC -4.5)
I'm starting with the worst 1PM games first. This one is quite terrible. The Jaguars are along with Oakland everyones pick for the worst team in the NFL. The Chiefs, I would imagine, will start the season well under Andy Reid. Trouble may not come until later in Kansas City. With Justin Blackmon out, the Jaguars just don't have any firepower at all. The Chiefs are fully healthy coming into this game. The line is high for a middling team on the road being the favorite, but I think the Chiefs cover it quite easily.
Chiefs 24 @ Jaguars 13 (KC -4.5)
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -1)
I definitely like the Dolphins more than Cleveland for the year, but with the even line, I'm unsure about how it will play out in this one game. The Browns have some optimism right now under new leadership. As with most things about the Browns these days, the key comes down to whether they can score enough to hang with Miami. The Browns o-line is average, and Cameron Wake could go wild against Cleveland. Brandon Weeden looked awful in their dress rehearsal third preseason game against the Colts, and I hate to use preseason performances to justify my opinions, but I am doing just that. I'm shocked the Dolphins are underdogs here, and it screams out to me as great value.
Dolphins 23 @ Browns 14 (MIA +1)
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (NE -10.5)
I wonder what this line would have been if Jeff Tuell was the starting QB for the Bills. Probably in vintage 2007 Pats range (the year of the famous -21 line against Baltimore). Anyway, it is EJ Manuel, which I guess decreases the near certainty of the Pats blowout. I don't really trust New England to cover double digit spreads anymore, but there are a lot of plays for the New England side here. First, they were in a really similar situation last year when they went to Tennessee, had a double digit spread and covered it easily. Secondly, I could really see BB trying to prove to the NFL that his offense works. And what if the EJ Manuel led offense does nothing? Still, I don't trust high lines like these, and I don't think Buffalo is a terrible team.
Patriots 31 @ Bills 23 (BUF +10.5)
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -7)
The Steelers have covered each of their last seven home openers. That's a nice stat I like to bring out every now and then (namely, right now and never again). The Steelers, even if they are just a 9-7 type team with a slightly above average offense and defense, should definitely win this game. The Titans don't really have the type of offensive players to challenge the Steelers. They can't really spread out the field. They can't really get a ton of pressure on Ben since they don't have those players. The Steelers have to win this type of game if they want to really go anywhere this year. I think they will go to a lot of places and win this game quite easily.
Titans 13 @ Steelers 27 (PIT -7)
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (DET -6)
Interesting game and an interesting line. I'm surprised that the Lions are favored by so much. This line essentially means that Vegas thinks they are three points better than Minnesota on a neutral site. The Vikings were six games better last year. But I can see what Vegas is telling us here, the Lions are far better than the 4-12 from 2012, and the Vikings aren't nearly as good as the 10-6 from 2012. The Lions are quite good a run defense, and while Peterson did quite well against them last year, it was still good enough to win all two meetings last year. Obviously, I'm leaning towards the Lions winning the game, but that line is just really high. I hate picking a team to win and not cover when the line is less than a TD, but it does happen a lot. I can see the Lions finally winning a close game, extolling a lot of their demons from late last year when they blew lead after lead. In that way, the 2013 Lions are quite similar to the 2012 Vikings, a team that is more talented than their previous year record where they blew a ton of leads.
Vikings 24 @ Lions 31 (DET -6)
Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -10)
I'll sum this one up easily: if the Colts don't win this game, then their season is essentially over. If they don't cover this game, they aren't a playoff-caliber team. I think they are both (though I don't think they get there), but they should beat a terrible Raider team quite easily. Covering a double digit line is hard, even at home against a potentially awful team. If I pick them, then I'm revealing my Pats-hater skin for not picking them to do the same thing (albeit on the road) against a similarly talent disparate team. Anyway, this long winded reasoning leads me to giving the Colts some benefit of the doubt.
Raiders 17 @ Colts 30 (IND -10)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets (TB -4.5)
The Return of Revis! Somehow, it means nothing to me. I don't expect to watch a second of this game on Sunday. I guess the Jets are starting Geno Smith, but he's terrible. He was so awful on that game, so completely lost on the field. It was staggering to watch, really. Now, the Buccaneers don't have a great defense, but it is good enough to cause major problems. The bigger issue is the other side, the Jets defense against Tampa's offense. The Jets, even in last year, absolutely dominate any offense less than average. The Bucs are better than average on paper, but I don't trust Josh Freeman at all at this point. I can see the Jets defense playing really, really well in this game. Rex is coaching for his life, and he can't trust that QB. This line seems too high for an average team on the road as well.
Buccaneers 16 @ Jets 20 (NYJ +4.5)
Seattle Seahakws @ Carolina Panthers (SEA -4.5)
These two teams played last year in Carolina midseason. The Seahawks led 16-12 in the 4th quarter, with the Panthers driving. The Panthers faced a 4th and Goal and didn't convert, eventually losing by that score. What I'm trying to say is the Panthers came close to beating them last year. The Seahawks struggled last year in 1PM games on teh East, losing at Miami and Detroit, and I can see a similarly bad performance here. Bruce Irvin is missing, and the Seahawks are being pumped up a little too much right now for my liking. I can see them dropping week one and then the nation collectively reevaluating their Seahawk-love. Also, the Panthers defense is really well built to play the Seahawks offense. They can shut down taht run game. They have coverage linebackers that can contain the short passing. I really like the Panthers getting so many points at home against a good matchup for them.
Seahawks 20 @ Panthers 24 (CAR +4.5) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3.5)
Andy Dalton gets a nice little test for the season that can change the way we all view him. The Bears almost assuredly won't be the dominant defense they were last year, but they are still a fantastic defense on paper. What this game comes down to is how much can the short passing game orchestrated by Trestman-Cutler can get on that defense. The thing that disrupts Trestman's passing game (assuming it resembles what it was back in 2002 when he was the OC for Gannon's gnat attack) is quick pressure, and the combination of the Bengals dominant front and the Bears relatively weak line could spell doom for Cutler. The Bengals just match up really well against any team with anything less than a good O-Line. Geno Atkins, along with Dunlap, Johnson and all the rest, could dominate that matchup in the trenches. Add that to the fact that the Bears are the favorite(?), and this seems like an easy pick for me.
Bengals 24 @ Bears 17 (CIN +3.5)
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3)
Really tough game to pick here. Really tough. On one hand, the Falcons are still a more complete team than the Saints. Their offensive firepower is about as good adn their defense is still better despite their personnel losses in the offseason. On the other hand, the Saints are probably foaming at the mouth to play a game with Sean Payton as their head coach again. If we look to last year, the last time these two teams played, the Falcons picked off Brees 5 times and ended his TD streak. I don't think they do nearly as good against the Saints in this game, but I still like the Falcons to win this game. More than any pick, this is heart over head to some degree, but I just don't see the Saints returning to being a 13-3 team now that Sean Payton is back. For all of the bad things about Gregg Williams, his track record on defense is a whole lot better than Rob Ryan's.
Falcons 31 @ Saints 27 (ATL +3)
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (STL -4.5)
Big line for a team playing against a good, solid defensive team in Arizona. The Rams seem like the better team, but the wild card here is how Palmer does in Arians offense. If he can revive that offense, the Cardinals could be a real frisky team all year long. What scares me is that their first test is against one of the better D-Lines in the NFL. Quinn, Brockers and (especially) Chris Long could dominate the inferior Cardinals O-Lineman. On the other side, the Cardinals can do the same in a lot of ways to the Rams, but I have a little more trust in St. Louis to adjust and not be as bull-headed as Bruce Arians is with his system. This is a long way in saying that in the old-school game of the week, I think the team with lesser questionmarks win.
Cardinals 13 @ Rams 20 (STL -4.5)
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -5)
Is this going to be a Week 1 tradition from now on? The Packers bookended their season to slightly humiliating losses to the 49ers. Obviously, the divisional loss to the 49ers was embarrassing enough, but even their Week 1 loss at home to the Alex Smith was quite bad. The 49ers front dominated the Packers lineman in both matchups. I can't see that really changing here. What I am worried about is if the Packers have figured out the 49ers offense. They weren't able to really stop it when it was Alex Smith leading a more conventional offense, and they had even less ability to stop the Kaepernick led offense. I can't see them giving up 45 points and 579 yard again, but I can see them holding it down enough. In the end, the line is low enough that I can pick the 49ers and be comfonrtable with them not having to have them blow out the Packers to still hit the bet, and that is what I am depending on.
Packers 21 @ 49ers 30 (SF -5)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -3.5)
The Giants haven't lost in Cowboys Stadium yet. I love that stat. Now, three of the wins were in awesome games that came down to the wire. The first was the first ever game in Cowboys Stadium back in 2009 (remember the 'Other Steve Smith', he played a big part), and the second was the catalyst for the Giants 2011 Super Bowl run. Then was last year's win by a pinkie. Now, I have the Giants going 12-4, and the Cowboys not going near that, so I kind have to pick the Giants for now. My preseason projections won't impact my picks forever, but they do to a point in teh first few weeks. The Giants are extremely comfortable in that stadium. Maybe it is the fact that they get to wear their home blue. I love to see Jerry Jones steaming mad after losing another game to the Giants at home and I think we see it once again.
Giants 31 @ Cowboys 24 (NYG -3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (WAS -4.5)
I'm picking the Redskins to win and cover, but first a little reasoning on why I'm so down on the Eagles this year. I think Chip Kelly's offense is nice in theory, but is totally ill-fitting for the NFL. I have no doubt NFL teams can run a play each 15-20 seconds; hell, the Pats did it for a while last year. The problem is getting first downs. If they go three-and-out, they're giving the ball back to their opponent in a minute or two. That defense, which is awful, could get taxed quickly, forcing the Eagles to play catch up, which is hard to do in a run-first offense. I also don't think Michael Vick is the best QB to run this offense. These were the problems that Oregon ran into in their eventual losses, like the 2010 BCS National Championship loss to Auburn. I just don't think it works nearly as well as people are saying.
Eagles 17 @ Redskins 28 (WAS -4.5)
Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers (HOU -5.5)
For the first time in many, many years, this late game isn't just one bad AFC West team at another. Instead, we get an AFC Power going to a middling AFC team. Still, that makes it far more watchable than previous versions of this 2nd MNF game. I definitely think the Texans are a far better team, but this is a tough game. I can see some good feelings going around the Chargers right now in Week 1. They should have a nice crowd, and I would love to see the Texans lose and then the world going crazy about their 0-1 start after their 1-4 finish to last season. Anyway, this is running really long, and while I may not have another chance to right somethign this long for a while (just to make a quick point, I will defintiely be making a single-pick piece for the TNF game) I'll just end it by saying that I will live or die with Philip Rivers this year.
Texans 23 @ Chargers 24 (SD +5.5)
(all lines from Sportsbook)
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos (DEN -7)
Since 2004, Peyton Manning is 10-2 in home night games. I don't know if this is true, but the '2' is. Anyway, until last year's divisional round, Peyton Manning hadn't lost to the Ravens since 2001. Well, that is over now. This used to be one of the greatest locks in football, the defending champion opening at home. Well, the Giants lost last year and now the Ravens have to open in Denver (New England really lucked out, as NE @ BAL would have probably been the opener). I'm happy the line isn't higher. Vegas really doesn't like the Ravens this year (their over/under is 8.5), but they're giving them some credit. The Broncos don't have Von Miller, but the Ravens don't have Boldin and Pitta, two people who really did well against the Broncos in the playoffs. Both teams have something to prove, but I feel like Manning angry is definitely better than Joe Flacco angry. Also, I don't know how to trust an Ed Reed-less and Ray Lewis-less defense just yet.
Ravens 20 @ Broncos 31 (DEN -7)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars (KC -4.5)
I'm starting with the worst 1PM games first. This one is quite terrible. The Jaguars are along with Oakland everyones pick for the worst team in the NFL. The Chiefs, I would imagine, will start the season well under Andy Reid. Trouble may not come until later in Kansas City. With Justin Blackmon out, the Jaguars just don't have any firepower at all. The Chiefs are fully healthy coming into this game. The line is high for a middling team on the road being the favorite, but I think the Chiefs cover it quite easily.
Chiefs 24 @ Jaguars 13 (KC -4.5)
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -1)
I definitely like the Dolphins more than Cleveland for the year, but with the even line, I'm unsure about how it will play out in this one game. The Browns have some optimism right now under new leadership. As with most things about the Browns these days, the key comes down to whether they can score enough to hang with Miami. The Browns o-line is average, and Cameron Wake could go wild against Cleveland. Brandon Weeden looked awful in their dress rehearsal third preseason game against the Colts, and I hate to use preseason performances to justify my opinions, but I am doing just that. I'm shocked the Dolphins are underdogs here, and it screams out to me as great value.
Dolphins 23 @ Browns 14 (MIA +1)
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (NE -10.5)
I wonder what this line would have been if Jeff Tuell was the starting QB for the Bills. Probably in vintage 2007 Pats range (the year of the famous -21 line against Baltimore). Anyway, it is EJ Manuel, which I guess decreases the near certainty of the Pats blowout. I don't really trust New England to cover double digit spreads anymore, but there are a lot of plays for the New England side here. First, they were in a really similar situation last year when they went to Tennessee, had a double digit spread and covered it easily. Secondly, I could really see BB trying to prove to the NFL that his offense works. And what if the EJ Manuel led offense does nothing? Still, I don't trust high lines like these, and I don't think Buffalo is a terrible team.
Patriots 31 @ Bills 23 (BUF +10.5)
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -7)
The Steelers have covered each of their last seven home openers. That's a nice stat I like to bring out every now and then (namely, right now and never again). The Steelers, even if they are just a 9-7 type team with a slightly above average offense and defense, should definitely win this game. The Titans don't really have the type of offensive players to challenge the Steelers. They can't really spread out the field. They can't really get a ton of pressure on Ben since they don't have those players. The Steelers have to win this type of game if they want to really go anywhere this year. I think they will go to a lot of places and win this game quite easily.
Titans 13 @ Steelers 27 (PIT -7)
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (DET -6)
Interesting game and an interesting line. I'm surprised that the Lions are favored by so much. This line essentially means that Vegas thinks they are three points better than Minnesota on a neutral site. The Vikings were six games better last year. But I can see what Vegas is telling us here, the Lions are far better than the 4-12 from 2012, and the Vikings aren't nearly as good as the 10-6 from 2012. The Lions are quite good a run defense, and while Peterson did quite well against them last year, it was still good enough to win all two meetings last year. Obviously, I'm leaning towards the Lions winning the game, but that line is just really high. I hate picking a team to win and not cover when the line is less than a TD, but it does happen a lot. I can see the Lions finally winning a close game, extolling a lot of their demons from late last year when they blew lead after lead. In that way, the 2013 Lions are quite similar to the 2012 Vikings, a team that is more talented than their previous year record where they blew a ton of leads.
Vikings 24 @ Lions 31 (DET -6)
Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -10)
I'll sum this one up easily: if the Colts don't win this game, then their season is essentially over. If they don't cover this game, they aren't a playoff-caliber team. I think they are both (though I don't think they get there), but they should beat a terrible Raider team quite easily. Covering a double digit line is hard, even at home against a potentially awful team. If I pick them, then I'm revealing my Pats-hater skin for not picking them to do the same thing (albeit on the road) against a similarly talent disparate team. Anyway, this long winded reasoning leads me to giving the Colts some benefit of the doubt.
Raiders 17 @ Colts 30 (IND -10)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets (TB -4.5)
The Return of Revis! Somehow, it means nothing to me. I don't expect to watch a second of this game on Sunday. I guess the Jets are starting Geno Smith, but he's terrible. He was so awful on that game, so completely lost on the field. It was staggering to watch, really. Now, the Buccaneers don't have a great defense, but it is good enough to cause major problems. The bigger issue is the other side, the Jets defense against Tampa's offense. The Jets, even in last year, absolutely dominate any offense less than average. The Bucs are better than average on paper, but I don't trust Josh Freeman at all at this point. I can see the Jets defense playing really, really well in this game. Rex is coaching for his life, and he can't trust that QB. This line seems too high for an average team on the road as well.
Buccaneers 16 @ Jets 20 (NYJ +4.5)
Seattle Seahakws @ Carolina Panthers (SEA -4.5)
These two teams played last year in Carolina midseason. The Seahawks led 16-12 in the 4th quarter, with the Panthers driving. The Panthers faced a 4th and Goal and didn't convert, eventually losing by that score. What I'm trying to say is the Panthers came close to beating them last year. The Seahawks struggled last year in 1PM games on teh East, losing at Miami and Detroit, and I can see a similarly bad performance here. Bruce Irvin is missing, and the Seahawks are being pumped up a little too much right now for my liking. I can see them dropping week one and then the nation collectively reevaluating their Seahawk-love. Also, the Panthers defense is really well built to play the Seahawks offense. They can shut down taht run game. They have coverage linebackers that can contain the short passing. I really like the Panthers getting so many points at home against a good matchup for them.
Seahawks 20 @ Panthers 24 (CAR +4.5) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears (CHI -3.5)
Andy Dalton gets a nice little test for the season that can change the way we all view him. The Bears almost assuredly won't be the dominant defense they were last year, but they are still a fantastic defense on paper. What this game comes down to is how much can the short passing game orchestrated by Trestman-Cutler can get on that defense. The thing that disrupts Trestman's passing game (assuming it resembles what it was back in 2002 when he was the OC for Gannon's gnat attack) is quick pressure, and the combination of the Bengals dominant front and the Bears relatively weak line could spell doom for Cutler. The Bengals just match up really well against any team with anything less than a good O-Line. Geno Atkins, along with Dunlap, Johnson and all the rest, could dominate that matchup in the trenches. Add that to the fact that the Bears are the favorite(?), and this seems like an easy pick for me.
Bengals 24 @ Bears 17 (CIN +3.5)
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3)
Really tough game to pick here. Really tough. On one hand, the Falcons are still a more complete team than the Saints. Their offensive firepower is about as good adn their defense is still better despite their personnel losses in the offseason. On the other hand, the Saints are probably foaming at the mouth to play a game with Sean Payton as their head coach again. If we look to last year, the last time these two teams played, the Falcons picked off Brees 5 times and ended his TD streak. I don't think they do nearly as good against the Saints in this game, but I still like the Falcons to win this game. More than any pick, this is heart over head to some degree, but I just don't see the Saints returning to being a 13-3 team now that Sean Payton is back. For all of the bad things about Gregg Williams, his track record on defense is a whole lot better than Rob Ryan's.
Falcons 31 @ Saints 27 (ATL +3)
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (STL -4.5)
Big line for a team playing against a good, solid defensive team in Arizona. The Rams seem like the better team, but the wild card here is how Palmer does in Arians offense. If he can revive that offense, the Cardinals could be a real frisky team all year long. What scares me is that their first test is against one of the better D-Lines in the NFL. Quinn, Brockers and (especially) Chris Long could dominate the inferior Cardinals O-Lineman. On the other side, the Cardinals can do the same in a lot of ways to the Rams, but I have a little more trust in St. Louis to adjust and not be as bull-headed as Bruce Arians is with his system. This is a long way in saying that in the old-school game of the week, I think the team with lesser questionmarks win.
Cardinals 13 @ Rams 20 (STL -4.5)
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -5)
Is this going to be a Week 1 tradition from now on? The Packers bookended their season to slightly humiliating losses to the 49ers. Obviously, the divisional loss to the 49ers was embarrassing enough, but even their Week 1 loss at home to the Alex Smith was quite bad. The 49ers front dominated the Packers lineman in both matchups. I can't see that really changing here. What I am worried about is if the Packers have figured out the 49ers offense. They weren't able to really stop it when it was Alex Smith leading a more conventional offense, and they had even less ability to stop the Kaepernick led offense. I can't see them giving up 45 points and 579 yard again, but I can see them holding it down enough. In the end, the line is low enough that I can pick the 49ers and be comfonrtable with them not having to have them blow out the Packers to still hit the bet, and that is what I am depending on.
Packers 21 @ 49ers 30 (SF -5)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -3.5)
The Giants haven't lost in Cowboys Stadium yet. I love that stat. Now, three of the wins were in awesome games that came down to the wire. The first was the first ever game in Cowboys Stadium back in 2009 (remember the 'Other Steve Smith', he played a big part), and the second was the catalyst for the Giants 2011 Super Bowl run. Then was last year's win by a pinkie. Now, I have the Giants going 12-4, and the Cowboys not going near that, so I kind have to pick the Giants for now. My preseason projections won't impact my picks forever, but they do to a point in teh first few weeks. The Giants are extremely comfortable in that stadium. Maybe it is the fact that they get to wear their home blue. I love to see Jerry Jones steaming mad after losing another game to the Giants at home and I think we see it once again.
Giants 31 @ Cowboys 24 (NYG -3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (WAS -4.5)
I'm picking the Redskins to win and cover, but first a little reasoning on why I'm so down on the Eagles this year. I think Chip Kelly's offense is nice in theory, but is totally ill-fitting for the NFL. I have no doubt NFL teams can run a play each 15-20 seconds; hell, the Pats did it for a while last year. The problem is getting first downs. If they go three-and-out, they're giving the ball back to their opponent in a minute or two. That defense, which is awful, could get taxed quickly, forcing the Eagles to play catch up, which is hard to do in a run-first offense. I also don't think Michael Vick is the best QB to run this offense. These were the problems that Oregon ran into in their eventual losses, like the 2010 BCS National Championship loss to Auburn. I just don't think it works nearly as well as people are saying.
Eagles 17 @ Redskins 28 (WAS -4.5)
Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers (HOU -5.5)
For the first time in many, many years, this late game isn't just one bad AFC West team at another. Instead, we get an AFC Power going to a middling AFC team. Still, that makes it far more watchable than previous versions of this 2nd MNF game. I definitely think the Texans are a far better team, but this is a tough game. I can see some good feelings going around the Chargers right now in Week 1. They should have a nice crowd, and I would love to see the Texans lose and then the world going crazy about their 0-1 start after their 1-4 finish to last season. Anyway, this is running really long, and while I may not have another chance to right somethign this long for a while (just to make a quick point, I will defintiely be making a single-pick piece for the TNF game) I'll just end it by saying that I will live or die with Philip Rivers this year.
Texans 23 @ Chargers 24 (SD +5.5)
