Year-to-Date: 27-21
San Francisco 49ers (1-2) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2) (SF -3.5)
This is an interesting line, because right now the public hates the 49ers, and for good reason. Hard to get much love when you lose to what was a publicly perceived average team by 20 at home. Now they don't have Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis might miss the game as well. Of course, I think the Rams just aren't good enough to win these types of games. The line gives the chance of a field goal loss by the Rams and still cover the number, but I just can't see the 49ers dropping to 1-3. Even shorthanded, they are a more talented team than St. Louis. They've heard all week how horrible they are and how the Rams know how to play them. I just can't see such a talented team losing again.
49ers 24 Rams 16 (SF -3.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) @* Minnesota Vikings (0-3) (PIT -3)
In the history of the London series, the NFL has sent one good game, with the Saints narrowly beating the Chargers 36-33 in 2008. That was it. The rest have been crap, and this is more of the same (as will 49ers/Jaguars later this year). How is the NFL planning to grow its product by sending lousy games over. At least this one looked better preseason. Anyway, as for the game, I can't see the Steelers dropping to 0-4, but of course I couldn't see them at 0-3 either. Their offense finally showed some life against the Bears, but counter that with their defense playing worse than ever. Of course, all this analysis became moot when Ponder was ruled out in favor of Matt Cassel. At that point, who can blame you if the Steelers can't even beat him?
Steelers 24 Vikings 13 (PIT -3)
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Buffalo Bills (1-2) (BAL -3)
I really don't know what to think of the Ravens. They gave up 510 yards and 7 TDs in Week 1 in Denver. They've given up 523 yards and 0 TDs in the two games since. Of course, you can chalk it up to Manning being Manning, but what you can't chalk up to that is the Ravens offense still not playing well at all. Flacco has completed barely over 60% of his passes for a career low 6.4 y/a. The run game has done little and Ray Rice has been hampered. They still have no dependable #2 receiver. Still, they are 2-1 having just beaten the Texans by 21. I actually like this Bills team overall, but I don't know if I like them to beat Baltimore. Honestly, after last weeks' mediocre results, I'm really unsure about most of these picks. I'll take a stab at it, though, and go with the team that has shown some ability to move the ball and play good defense at home.
Ravens 20 Bills 23 (BUF +3)
Indianapolis Colts (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) (IND -9.5)
This line terrifies me, because I know that the Colts are absolutely good enough to win this game by that much. Or rather, the Jaguars are definitely bad enough to lose this home game by this much. But there's history here, with the Jaguars often pulling games out of their ass against the Manning era Colts. These aren't the Manning era Colts, but even then Cecil Shorts somehow got an 80-yd TD to win their first meeting last year. I know the Jaguars are terrible, but they can't lose ATS every week. Sooner or later they might have a decent performance, and I have a bad feeling it will be this week. I hate taking a line this high, especially with a team that until last week showed no ability to build on a lead, but at the end of the day, personal bias does come in to this. I know one of the tenets of sports betting is to bet a number and not a team (basically, with your head, not your heart), but sometimes we have to just forget about all that and go for it.
Colts 27 Jaguars 13 (IND -9.5)
Arizona Cardinals (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) (TB -2.5)
At first I thought I had to refresh the website I was using. I mean, they must not have factored in Mike Glennon playing? Evidently they have, so I either have to believe that Josh Freeman meant nothing to this line (certainly possible) or Vegas hates the Cardinals (also possible, though they are 2-1 ATS). Personally, I love this spot for Arizona. The easy reason is that they are better, even had Josh Freeman started the game. Secondly, Mike Glennon was quite bad if memory serves me right this preseason, and the Bucs seem to have basically quite on Schiano. Finally, that home crowd probably outright hates this team right now. Finally, I still think the Cardinals are better than people believe. I would have liked the line to be a bit higher towards Tampa, but I consider this a really lively underdog.
Cardinals 23 Buccaneers 13 (ARZ +2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-2) (CIN -4)
I talked about it a lot on Tuesday's Power Rankings and the Rest piece that I think Brian Hoyer will find life a tad tougher in this game, against a great defense. I'm stunned the Bengals are only favored by four here, so much so that I'm worried if there is some injury I'm not seeing. The Bengals are more talented, and even if the Browns hold them to just 20, they probably cover this without too much stress. I'm definitely not backing away from this one now after dreaming of laying this all week.
Bengals 24 Browns 14 (CIN -4)
New York Giants (0-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) (KC -4.5)
I started the week leaning towards the Giants... I need help. I try so hard to cut the ties with that team, and to give them their due so are they. The Giants did exactly nothing in that game that could convince anyone to take another chance betting on them. They basically had one of the worst performances that we have seen this season. The Chiefs, on the other side, won't make mistakes, will have a good chance to hammer Manning nearly as bad as Carolina did. I still like the comparison to the 49ers of 2011, and those 49ers lost an early season home game to an average at best Dallas team. This could be that game. I just now that the one week I decide to divorce the Giants they'll win by 20+ and rope me (and so many others) back in. Also, isn't this the perfect place for the Dr. Jekyll half of the Giants to come out of the closet, going to an undefeated team and winning to keep whatever hope they have alive? Yes, yes it is, and I hate what I am about to do:
Giants 21 Chiefs 17 (NYG +4.5)
Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Houston Texans (2-1) (SEA -2)
The Texans haven't lost as a home underdog since... I have no idea when. They haven't been a home underdog too much in recent years. There is a good reason why they are home underdogs, since Houston has looked really spotty, barely winning their first two games and putting up a completely lifeless performance in Baltimore. The Seahawks, on the other side, have taken care of business after the Week 1 scare, including covering a 20 point spread with ease. The problem with just taking the two points (allowing a field goal win) and running is that this is a 10AM PT game. The Seahawks struggled in such games mightily last year, losing to Miami and Detroit, among a few others, in such games. Even this year they struggled in Week 1 against Carolina. The Seahawks are also missing two O-Lineman, including their center, which is a bad spot against JJ Watt (who quietly has been dominant, again) and the rest of teh Texans still good defense. This should be a low scoring game, and one where the Texans could steal, but I hate betting on this Texans team to show up (although Andre Johnson should play). There isn't a lot of value at +2 for Houston, but the Seahawks can't go undefeated and this is as good a spot to lose in as any other.
Seahawks 17 Texans 20 (HOU +2)
Chicago Bears (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1) (DET -2.5)
I ranked this my #1 game of the week, and while #'s 2-3 (the SNF and MNF games) are just as good, the division rivalry aspect of this game does it for me. With Green Bay on a bye, the winner gets a chance to get some distance between them and the Packers (of course the Bears, who started 7-1 last year, had quite a bit of space between them and the Packers and little good that did). The Bears pass rush has been rather quiet, but it is hard to really get to Stafford anyway. What the Bears need to do is shut down Calvin like they did in both games last year. The other side has the Bears new O-Line getting its best test so far with a great Detroit front. They only have 6 sacks but have gotten worlds of pressure. The line gives decent value for the Lions, who just need to win by a field goal, and to me that is the deciding factor. I think a lot of 3-0 teams are going down this week, and the Bears are one of them.
Bears 19 Lions 24 (DET -2.5)
New York Jets (2-1) @ Tennessee Titans (2-1) (TEN -3.5)
Lot of potentially low scoring games this week. Through three weeks, scoring is a little down from last years' record setting pace. Overall offense is slightly up, but QBs are a little less accurate this year and Y/A has dropped. Anyway, I don't know what this all means (if anything), but scoring is still down. Defenses adjusted well to the zone-read, and while the top QBs are still great, points aren't coming as easily. Anyway, as for this game, it is shocking that the winner of this game will be 301. The AFC so far has been the dominant conference, and that is because of teams like the Jets, Titans (and Dolphins and Chiefs) rising up so far in 2013. The Jets are a strange team that has a potentially good offense. The Titans actually remind me a lot of the Jeff Fisher Titans in 1999, winning close games with good, consistent defense and a QB making just as many plays as necessary. I don't know if it lasts long term, as that strategy was far more successful league-wide in 1999 than it is 14 years later. The Jets have, in the Ryan era, dominated middling offenses like this and with them getting good value I think they continue it, but I like the Titans to do what they do and pull out the win.
Jets 20 Titans 21 (NYJ +3.5)
Dallas Cowboys (2-1) @ San Diego Chargers (1-2) (DAL -2)
The Cowboys beat a terrible Rams team, and 0-3 Giants team and lost to the Chiefs. The Chargers lost to two teams that are 2-1 and beat the Eagles. I don't know which equation of results gives a better team, but I like the Chargers here. They've been blocking really well in pass protection which is key against that Dallas rush, and if they can continue to do so, they can give Rivers a lot of options against a still average secondary. The Chargers defense is also just good enough to keep the scoring low enough. Some of it is also narrative, as both the AFC Wild Card Race adn the NFC East Race is enhanced with both of these teams 2-2 after this week.
Cowboys 24 Chargers 27 (SD +2)
Washington Redskins (0-3) @ Oakland Raiders (1-2) (WAS -3.5)
So Matt Flynn is starting. That is all the reason I need to pick the Redskins. The Raiders aren't a good team, and the only reason they've been quasi-competitive is Terrelly Pryor playing really well. Matt Flynn could get killed behind that terrible O-Line. Give me the Redskins.
Redskins 27 Raiders 14 (WAS -3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (3-0) (DEN -11.5)
Effing garbage time points. Not only does it make the Broncos defense and scoring differential a little less impressive (they easily could have won 42-17, 38-16 and 37-14 - giving them a point differential of 117-47, nicer than 127-71), but they failed to cover by a half point because of it. The Broncos have scored fewer points each game, going from 49 to 41 to 37, but they've also given up fewer points each game (27-23-21), and fewer yards each game (~390 to ~370 to ~340). The Raiders were the #1 rush offense coming into last weeks' game, and they had 49 yards on 17 runs. The Eagles are the #1 rush offense now, and while I think they get more than that, they aren't winning this game (or staying close) by running the ball. This is the worst position for Chip Kelly's offense to be in, as giving Manning more possessions is the exact way to be routed by the Broncos, and I think it happens.
Eagles 17 Broncos 34 (DEN -11.5)
New England Patriots (3-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2) (ATL -2.5)
I hate being semi-confident in the Patriots losing. Then again, the last time I was was back in Super Bowl XLVI, when I was pretty sure they would lose to the Giants. The Falcons need this game really badly, and despite their 1-2 record and the Patriots 3-0 record, the Falcons are basically about as good by 2013 performance. Both of the Falcons losses were close losses to 3-0 teams that the Falcons could have easily won. The Patriots were supremely lucky to escape 2-0 after two weeks, and while they dominated the Buccaneers, the Falcons offense is a different animal. The Falcons are also money in night games in the Ryan era, going 7-2 at home at night. They were 2-0 at home in primetime games last year, beating the Broncos and Saints, picking off Manning and Brees 8 times. One little nugget about the Brees game, that ended Brees' TD streak at 51 games, and Brady currently has a 49 game streak going. Anyway, the Falcons are as good as New England, and far more desperate, and I think they win.
Patriots 23 Falcons 28 (ATL -2.5)
Miami Dolphins (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0) (NO -7)
If Cameron Wake was playing, I would lean towards taking Miami and the points (of course, the line probably would be -6 or -6.5 in that case). The Dolphins are a real good team, beating two quality teams in their three wins. The Saints aren't clicking on offense as well as people believe, but they should still score quite a few points. The question here is how far does Rob Ryan's defense stay good, because history shows it will fall off at some point. Is it this week? Is it next week? Is it the week after (when they get New England)? Who knows. I like this Miami team, and I think seven is a high number, but it is also a perfect number. It is so hard to go for Miami here, but I'll do something I rarely do, which is pick them to cover but lose.
Dolphins 23 Saints 27 (MIA +7)
San Francisco 49ers (1-2) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2) (SF -3.5)
This is an interesting line, because right now the public hates the 49ers, and for good reason. Hard to get much love when you lose to what was a publicly perceived average team by 20 at home. Now they don't have Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis might miss the game as well. Of course, I think the Rams just aren't good enough to win these types of games. The line gives the chance of a field goal loss by the Rams and still cover the number, but I just can't see the 49ers dropping to 1-3. Even shorthanded, they are a more talented team than St. Louis. They've heard all week how horrible they are and how the Rams know how to play them. I just can't see such a talented team losing again.
49ers 24 Rams 16 (SF -3.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) @* Minnesota Vikings (0-3) (PIT -3)
In the history of the London series, the NFL has sent one good game, with the Saints narrowly beating the Chargers 36-33 in 2008. That was it. The rest have been crap, and this is more of the same (as will 49ers/Jaguars later this year). How is the NFL planning to grow its product by sending lousy games over. At least this one looked better preseason. Anyway, as for the game, I can't see the Steelers dropping to 0-4, but of course I couldn't see them at 0-3 either. Their offense finally showed some life against the Bears, but counter that with their defense playing worse than ever. Of course, all this analysis became moot when Ponder was ruled out in favor of Matt Cassel. At that point, who can blame you if the Steelers can't even beat him?
Steelers 24 Vikings 13 (PIT -3)
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Buffalo Bills (1-2) (BAL -3)
I really don't know what to think of the Ravens. They gave up 510 yards and 7 TDs in Week 1 in Denver. They've given up 523 yards and 0 TDs in the two games since. Of course, you can chalk it up to Manning being Manning, but what you can't chalk up to that is the Ravens offense still not playing well at all. Flacco has completed barely over 60% of his passes for a career low 6.4 y/a. The run game has done little and Ray Rice has been hampered. They still have no dependable #2 receiver. Still, they are 2-1 having just beaten the Texans by 21. I actually like this Bills team overall, but I don't know if I like them to beat Baltimore. Honestly, after last weeks' mediocre results, I'm really unsure about most of these picks. I'll take a stab at it, though, and go with the team that has shown some ability to move the ball and play good defense at home.
Ravens 20 Bills 23 (BUF +3)
Indianapolis Colts (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) (IND -9.5)
This line terrifies me, because I know that the Colts are absolutely good enough to win this game by that much. Or rather, the Jaguars are definitely bad enough to lose this home game by this much. But there's history here, with the Jaguars often pulling games out of their ass against the Manning era Colts. These aren't the Manning era Colts, but even then Cecil Shorts somehow got an 80-yd TD to win their first meeting last year. I know the Jaguars are terrible, but they can't lose ATS every week. Sooner or later they might have a decent performance, and I have a bad feeling it will be this week. I hate taking a line this high, especially with a team that until last week showed no ability to build on a lead, but at the end of the day, personal bias does come in to this. I know one of the tenets of sports betting is to bet a number and not a team (basically, with your head, not your heart), but sometimes we have to just forget about all that and go for it.
Colts 27 Jaguars 13 (IND -9.5)
Arizona Cardinals (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) (TB -2.5)
At first I thought I had to refresh the website I was using. I mean, they must not have factored in Mike Glennon playing? Evidently they have, so I either have to believe that Josh Freeman meant nothing to this line (certainly possible) or Vegas hates the Cardinals (also possible, though they are 2-1 ATS). Personally, I love this spot for Arizona. The easy reason is that they are better, even had Josh Freeman started the game. Secondly, Mike Glennon was quite bad if memory serves me right this preseason, and the Bucs seem to have basically quite on Schiano. Finally, that home crowd probably outright hates this team right now. Finally, I still think the Cardinals are better than people believe. I would have liked the line to be a bit higher towards Tampa, but I consider this a really lively underdog.
Cardinals 23 Buccaneers 13 (ARZ +2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-2) (CIN -4)
I talked about it a lot on Tuesday's Power Rankings and the Rest piece that I think Brian Hoyer will find life a tad tougher in this game, against a great defense. I'm stunned the Bengals are only favored by four here, so much so that I'm worried if there is some injury I'm not seeing. The Bengals are more talented, and even if the Browns hold them to just 20, they probably cover this without too much stress. I'm definitely not backing away from this one now after dreaming of laying this all week.
Bengals 24 Browns 14 (CIN -4)
New York Giants (0-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) (KC -4.5)
I started the week leaning towards the Giants... I need help. I try so hard to cut the ties with that team, and to give them their due so are they. The Giants did exactly nothing in that game that could convince anyone to take another chance betting on them. They basically had one of the worst performances that we have seen this season. The Chiefs, on the other side, won't make mistakes, will have a good chance to hammer Manning nearly as bad as Carolina did. I still like the comparison to the 49ers of 2011, and those 49ers lost an early season home game to an average at best Dallas team. This could be that game. I just now that the one week I decide to divorce the Giants they'll win by 20+ and rope me (and so many others) back in. Also, isn't this the perfect place for the Dr. Jekyll half of the Giants to come out of the closet, going to an undefeated team and winning to keep whatever hope they have alive? Yes, yes it is, and I hate what I am about to do:
Giants 21 Chiefs 17 (NYG +4.5)
Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Houston Texans (2-1) (SEA -2)
The Texans haven't lost as a home underdog since... I have no idea when. They haven't been a home underdog too much in recent years. There is a good reason why they are home underdogs, since Houston has looked really spotty, barely winning their first two games and putting up a completely lifeless performance in Baltimore. The Seahawks, on the other side, have taken care of business after the Week 1 scare, including covering a 20 point spread with ease. The problem with just taking the two points (allowing a field goal win) and running is that this is a 10AM PT game. The Seahawks struggled in such games mightily last year, losing to Miami and Detroit, among a few others, in such games. Even this year they struggled in Week 1 against Carolina. The Seahawks are also missing two O-Lineman, including their center, which is a bad spot against JJ Watt (who quietly has been dominant, again) and the rest of teh Texans still good defense. This should be a low scoring game, and one where the Texans could steal, but I hate betting on this Texans team to show up (although Andre Johnson should play). There isn't a lot of value at +2 for Houston, but the Seahawks can't go undefeated and this is as good a spot to lose in as any other.
Seahawks 17 Texans 20 (HOU +2)
Chicago Bears (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1) (DET -2.5)
I ranked this my #1 game of the week, and while #'s 2-3 (the SNF and MNF games) are just as good, the division rivalry aspect of this game does it for me. With Green Bay on a bye, the winner gets a chance to get some distance between them and the Packers (of course the Bears, who started 7-1 last year, had quite a bit of space between them and the Packers and little good that did). The Bears pass rush has been rather quiet, but it is hard to really get to Stafford anyway. What the Bears need to do is shut down Calvin like they did in both games last year. The other side has the Bears new O-Line getting its best test so far with a great Detroit front. They only have 6 sacks but have gotten worlds of pressure. The line gives decent value for the Lions, who just need to win by a field goal, and to me that is the deciding factor. I think a lot of 3-0 teams are going down this week, and the Bears are one of them.
Bears 19 Lions 24 (DET -2.5)
New York Jets (2-1) @ Tennessee Titans (2-1) (TEN -3.5)
Lot of potentially low scoring games this week. Through three weeks, scoring is a little down from last years' record setting pace. Overall offense is slightly up, but QBs are a little less accurate this year and Y/A has dropped. Anyway, I don't know what this all means (if anything), but scoring is still down. Defenses adjusted well to the zone-read, and while the top QBs are still great, points aren't coming as easily. Anyway, as for this game, it is shocking that the winner of this game will be 301. The AFC so far has been the dominant conference, and that is because of teams like the Jets, Titans (and Dolphins and Chiefs) rising up so far in 2013. The Jets are a strange team that has a potentially good offense. The Titans actually remind me a lot of the Jeff Fisher Titans in 1999, winning close games with good, consistent defense and a QB making just as many plays as necessary. I don't know if it lasts long term, as that strategy was far more successful league-wide in 1999 than it is 14 years later. The Jets have, in the Ryan era, dominated middling offenses like this and with them getting good value I think they continue it, but I like the Titans to do what they do and pull out the win.
Jets 20 Titans 21 (NYJ +3.5)
Dallas Cowboys (2-1) @ San Diego Chargers (1-2) (DAL -2)
The Cowboys beat a terrible Rams team, and 0-3 Giants team and lost to the Chiefs. The Chargers lost to two teams that are 2-1 and beat the Eagles. I don't know which equation of results gives a better team, but I like the Chargers here. They've been blocking really well in pass protection which is key against that Dallas rush, and if they can continue to do so, they can give Rivers a lot of options against a still average secondary. The Chargers defense is also just good enough to keep the scoring low enough. Some of it is also narrative, as both the AFC Wild Card Race adn the NFC East Race is enhanced with both of these teams 2-2 after this week.
Cowboys 24 Chargers 27 (SD +2)
Washington Redskins (0-3) @ Oakland Raiders (1-2) (WAS -3.5)
So Matt Flynn is starting. That is all the reason I need to pick the Redskins. The Raiders aren't a good team, and the only reason they've been quasi-competitive is Terrelly Pryor playing really well. Matt Flynn could get killed behind that terrible O-Line. Give me the Redskins.
Redskins 27 Raiders 14 (WAS -3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (3-0) (DEN -11.5)
Effing garbage time points. Not only does it make the Broncos defense and scoring differential a little less impressive (they easily could have won 42-17, 38-16 and 37-14 - giving them a point differential of 117-47, nicer than 127-71), but they failed to cover by a half point because of it. The Broncos have scored fewer points each game, going from 49 to 41 to 37, but they've also given up fewer points each game (27-23-21), and fewer yards each game (~390 to ~370 to ~340). The Raiders were the #1 rush offense coming into last weeks' game, and they had 49 yards on 17 runs. The Eagles are the #1 rush offense now, and while I think they get more than that, they aren't winning this game (or staying close) by running the ball. This is the worst position for Chip Kelly's offense to be in, as giving Manning more possessions is the exact way to be routed by the Broncos, and I think it happens.
Eagles 17 Broncos 34 (DEN -11.5)
New England Patriots (3-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2) (ATL -2.5)
I hate being semi-confident in the Patriots losing. Then again, the last time I was was back in Super Bowl XLVI, when I was pretty sure they would lose to the Giants. The Falcons need this game really badly, and despite their 1-2 record and the Patriots 3-0 record, the Falcons are basically about as good by 2013 performance. Both of the Falcons losses were close losses to 3-0 teams that the Falcons could have easily won. The Patriots were supremely lucky to escape 2-0 after two weeks, and while they dominated the Buccaneers, the Falcons offense is a different animal. The Falcons are also money in night games in the Ryan era, going 7-2 at home at night. They were 2-0 at home in primetime games last year, beating the Broncos and Saints, picking off Manning and Brees 8 times. One little nugget about the Brees game, that ended Brees' TD streak at 51 games, and Brady currently has a 49 game streak going. Anyway, the Falcons are as good as New England, and far more desperate, and I think they win.
Patriots 23 Falcons 28 (ATL -2.5)
Miami Dolphins (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0) (NO -7)
If Cameron Wake was playing, I would lean towards taking Miami and the points (of course, the line probably would be -6 or -6.5 in that case). The Dolphins are a real good team, beating two quality teams in their three wins. The Saints aren't clicking on offense as well as people believe, but they should still score quite a few points. The question here is how far does Rob Ryan's defense stay good, because history shows it will fall off at some point. Is it this week? Is it next week? Is it the week after (when they get New England)? Who knows. I like this Miami team, and I think seven is a high number, but it is also a perfect number. It is so hard to go for Miami here, but I'll do something I rarely do, which is pick them to cover but lose.
Dolphins 23 Saints 27 (MIA +7)
