NFC East
4.) Philadelphia Eagles = 4-12
Lost: (LB) Akeem Jordan, (DT) Mike Patterson, (CB) Nnamdi Asomugha, (DT) Derek Landri, (DT) Cullen Jenkins
Gained: (CB) Cary Williams, (S) Kenny Phillips, (OLB) Connor Barwin, (NT) Isaac Sopoaga, (RB) Felix Jones
There is a lot of hype around the Eagles, mainly centering around the fact that Chip Kelly has come on board. Personally, I don't really understand the ridiculous amount of hype and optimism surrounding this move. Chip Kelly is famous for his up-tempo offense, but that offense has struggled against good defenses over the years, like in the 2010 National Title Game against Auburn, or their loss last year to Stanford. We've never seen any of the 'offensive genius' college head coaches succeed in the NFL yet. I'm going with the safer bet that he won't. The team lost a lot of defensive talent, and while Connor Barwin is a nice picup, I don't trust the decision to switch to the 3-4. A lot of their players will be misplaced in that defense. Finally, their offense is really lacking talent in many areas. Who are their dependable receivers? Who are their top lineman? Most importantly, what is the QB plan if (and more realistically, when) Vick goes down? Too many questions in a tough division.
3.) Dallas Cowboys = 6-10
Lost: (DT) Victor Butler, (CB) Mike Jenkins, (RB) Felix Jones, (DE) Marcus Spears, (ILB) Dan Conner, (S) Gerald Sesabaugh
Gained: (S) Will Allen, (OLB) Justin Durant
Tony Romo quietly had a very good season in 2012, with some good clutch 4th quarter performances. Of course, his last pass was a bad pick against the Redskins which cost the Cowboys the chance of tying that play-in Week 17 game. While their offense should still be good with a close to dominant Dez Bryant and a better o-line than it has been in years, the reason I don't like the Cowboys is simply what they are doing to that defense. They had one trump card on defense, which was Demarcus Ware. Well, with a switch to a Tampa-2 type defense, coordinated by an ancient Monte Kiffin, might limit Ware. It might limit a lot of people on that defense. Sean Lee could thrive if he stays healthy, but going to a Tampa-2 from whatever Rob Ryan was attempting to do is quite a change, and I don't think it works.
2.) Washington Redskins = 7-9
Lost: No One of Note
Gained: (WR) Devery Henderson, (DE) Daryl Tapp, (CB) E.J. Biggers
So, the Redskins are bringing back essentially everyone from their dream 10-6 season which ended with seven straight wins before their Wild Card loss to Seattle. Of course, the biggest impact to the Redskins season could be what happened during that game, when Robert Griffin III completely tore his ACL. RGIII's rehab is going well, but with a player like him, who's running ability makes that offense work, a reconstructed knee is a big problem. So is the fact that defenses just have to play the pistol/read-option better this year than they did last (a common theme for a few of my preseason predictions). They have the pieces around RGIII, but they probably overachieved to 10-6 a year ago, taking advantage of a injury plagued Giants team and some fortunate wins to steal the division. The defense is decent, but there's age. If Brian Orakpo comes back healthy, that pass rush should get better, but their secondary is still problematic. Overall, I'm down on the Redskins. Of course, I picked them to lose six of their seven games during that season ending win streak.
1.) New York Giants = 12-4 (1-Seed)
Lost: (DT) Chris Canty, (DE) Osi Umenyiora, (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (S) Kenny Phillips, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (OLB) Michael Boley, (ILB) Chase Blackburn
Gained: (DT) Cullen Jenkins, (ILB) Dan Conner, (WR) Louis Murphy, (DT) Mike Patterson, (OLB) Aaron Curry, (S) Ryan Mundy
Yeah, I'm buying into them again. I don't know why I keep doing this. I picked them to go 13-3 in 2010, 11-5 in 2011 (with losing the NFC Title Game, so at least I saw a nice playoff run) and 12-4 last year. All three were wrong. Only the 2011 pick came close. Still, I like this team once again. Nicks and Cruz can't possibly be as injured again. I love the addition of Brandon Myers at TE. I love the addition of Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson to that D-Line, which should get bounce back seasons from Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants always look good on paper, and end up disappointing with a 2nd half swoon. With their late season schedule (vs.GB, @WAS, @SD, vs.SEA) in a five week span late, it could happen, but once again I'll say it won't.
NFC North
4.) Minnesota Vikings = 5-11
Lost: (CB) Antoine Winfield, (WR) Michael Jenkins, (WR) Percy Harvin, (ILB) Jasper Brinkley
Gained: (ILB) Desmond Bishop, (QB) Matt Cassel, (G) Seth Olsen
The Vikings had a great draft at least right now. The Vikings also have Adrian Peterson, who is a man amongst little children at the running back position. But they really had a tough offseason, losing their only good outside weapon in Harvin, a corner who had a great year in Winfield, and they didn't really get better in free agency. Another problem is they still have Christian Ponder. Of course, he could get better, but the pieces around him aren't really helping that cause. Once again, they still have Adrian Peterson, but people who rush for 2,000 years generally don't approach that number the following season, and remember that during his historically good 8 game stretch late in the season, the Vikings went just 4-4. Combine a tough division and you get a fall-back season, especially with a defense that depends on aging stars like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams.
3.) Chicago Bears = 7-9
Lost: (ILB) Brian Urlacher, (OT) Gabe Carimi, (DE) Israel Idonije, (OLB) Nick Roach, (TE) Matt Spaeth, (G) Chilo Rachal, (TE) Kellen Davis
Gained: (DT) Sedrick Ellis, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (OT) Jermon Bushrod, (OLB) James Anderson, (S) Tom Zbikowski, (G) Eben Britton, (G) Matt Slauson, (DT) Andre Fluellen
They lost a lot of people, but they replaced a lot of them adequately. However, what they didn't replace was losing Lovie Smith, a firing that I thought was totally reactionary and hasty. That defense was special for most of the 2012 season, and I fear a massive step back. It is already hard for them to repeat the defensive scoring production they got last season, and a lot of their players are older. As for the offense, they should have the best o-line they've had since getting Cutler, and I was a fan of Marc Trestman's offense with Rich Gannon in Oakland, but Gannon's dink-and-dunk West Coast offense isn't an ideal fit for Cutler. The division doesn't help any, and without their old coach and old leader (Urlacher) I think the Bears, instead of starting strong and disappointing late, will just disappoint.
2.) Detroit Lions = 10-6 (5)
Lost: (DE) Cliff Avril, (DE) Kyle Vanden Bosch, (OT) Gosder Cherilus, (OLB) Justin Durant, (CB) Drayton Florence, (OT) Jeff Backus, (K) Jason Hanson
Gained: (RB) Reggie Bush, (G) Jake Scott, (DE) Israel Idonije, (DT) Jason Jones, (S) Glover Quin
This is probably my first "Huh?" pick, predicting a Lions team that went 4-12 in 2012 to make the playoffs. There are a lot of signs that the Lions should do better. First, they were far better than a 4-12 team, as they started 4-4, then lost their last eight. Five of those eight losses came after the Lions had fourth quarter leads, which probably won't happen again. The Lions lost some key veteran players, but I like the additions of Idonije and Jones in a Jim Schwartz defense. I love the move to get Reggie Bush, giving Stafford a reliable checkdown weapon, and Glover Quin should help that back end be anything but awful. Calvin Johnson is still Calvin Johnson and at the end of the day, that team was and still is more talented than 4-12. 2012 was a year when everything went wrong, this year I think some of it goes right.
1.) Green Bay Packers = 12-4 (2)
Lost: (WR) Greg Jennings, (S) Charles Woodson, (OLB) Frank Zombo, (ILB) Desmond Bishop, (OLB) Erik Walden, (WR) Donald Driver
Gained: No one, like always.
The Packers got another stellar season from Aaron Rodgers, a breakout season from Randall Cobb, a bounceback season from Clay Matthews, and somehow lost four more games in 2012 than they did the year before. At some point, Aaron Rodgers will be simply great instead of inhuman, and losing Greg Jennings could hurt that team, but I liked the draft picks of Eddie Lacy and Anthony Franklin. Of course, what makes a run game work even more is good lineman, which they don't really have. Their defense has good young players, and I think will improve even more. Combine a better defense (I really like Cam Heyward at CB) and an offense that shouldn't get too much worse, and you get a team that will do what the Packers should do every year: go around 12-4, and compete for a one-seed and the Super Bowl.
NFC South
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 5-11
Lost: (OT) Jeremy Trueblood, (WR) Arrelious Benn, (DE) Michael Bennett, (CB) E.J. Biggers, (CB) Ronde Barber
Gained: (S) Dashon Goldson, (DT) Derek Landri, (OT) Gabe Carimi, (CB) Darrelle Revis, (WR) Kevin Ogletree
The Buccaneers had a nice offseason. They nabbed the NFL's best corner (who has to be healthy, but that is a questionmark), a good, solid safety in Goldson, and another nice weapon for Josh Freeman in Ogletree. Of course, that last name is the issue. Josh Freeman. After a great 2010 season, we've seen two straight subpar years. Freeman and Vincent Jackson had a nice connection, but Freeman was mostly garbage throwing to anyone else late last season. Freeman hasn't improved at all over the last few years, and at some point you reach a time when it is clear he just won't at all. That defense still has major holes that weren't really filled at linebacker (outside of Lavonte David) and lineman (outside of Gerald McCoy), and if Revis isn't what Revis was pre-ACL injury, that secondary is once again a mess. It will be interesting if they do fail to compete in 2013 if Schiano is given the quick pass he was given after a disappointing season in 2012.
3.) New Orleans Saints = 8-8
Lost: (OT) Jermon Bushrod, (DT) Sedrick Ellis, (RB) Chris Ivory
Gained: (DE) Victor Butler, (CB) Keenan Lewis, (OT) Jason Smith, (S) Jim Leohnard
There are two schools of thought around the Saints. The first is that we should write off 2012 due to Payton's bounty-gate absence and the Saints will be in 2013 what they were in 2011. The other is that 2012 Saints showed flaws that haven't gone away and flaws that the return of Sean Payton can't absorb away. I'm in the latter camp. We have seen a Sean Payton led Saints team miss the playoffs. In fact, we've seen it twice. The Saints arguably had more talent in those seasons than they have now. Drew Brees ended up with another monstrous season statistically, but he threw a lot of bad picks, something that he does when he gets pressured and doesn't have a reliable run game. Well, with Carl Nicks still not replaced and his previous starting center and left tackle missing, and without any new solution to the ills of the run game, that could easily repeat itself in 2013. Then there is getting Rob Ryan, who's resume is built almost solely off his last name and the 2006 Raiders defense, which had the good fortune of playing with the 2006 Raiders offense. That offense was so bad teams didn't have to try on offense against the Raiders, making their defense statistically good. All other Rob Ryan defense: statistically average to terrible.
2.) Atlanta Falcons = 10-6 (6)
Lost: (OT) Tyson Clabo, (CB) Chris Owens, (DE) John Abraham, (CB) Dunta Robinson, (C) Todd McClure, (CB) Brent Grimes
Gained: (DE) Osi Umenyiora, (RB) Steven Jackson
That is a pretty lopsided 'Lost vs. Gained' section. The Falcons lost six contributors, including their best (and basically only consistent) source of pass rush, two of their three best corners, two of their lineman (and two guys that had been there for Matt Ryan's entire career), and offset those losses with a pass rusher who looked one step slower in 2012 in Osi and Steven Jackson, who is still quite good but is getting up there in mileage. The Falcons had a dream season in 2012, and if not for a Matt Ryan bobbled snap or Harry Douglas' ability to stay on his feet with an open field ahead of him, they make the Super Bowl. The Falcons have had some great seasons recently, but never back to back, and I think that continues. That offense is still fearsome, but their defense was usually good enough to pull out some games when Matt Ryan was having average days. I don't think they are that good anymore.
1.) Carolina Panthers = 10-6 (4)
Lost: (OLB) James Anderson, (CB) Chris Gamble
Gained: (CB) Drayton Florence, (WR) Tedd Ginn, (WR) Dominek Hixon, (S) Mike Mitchell, (ILB) Chase Blackburn
No team has ever repeated as NFC South champs since the creation of the division in 2012. I don't think many realize, but the Panthers ended up 2nd in the NFC last year, quietly sweeping the Saints. The Panthers ended strongly partly because the schedule got easier, but also because of improvements on either side of hte ball. Luke Kuechly's move inside unleashed a monster and that front seven dominated. Then, Cam stopped throwing picks and that offense started resembling what was a fascinating offense in 2011. Their running backs alternate disappointing and awesome games, and I think they'll have more of the latter in 2013. I like the additions on defense for a team that just needs average production from their secondary. Why not the Panthers?
NFC West
4.) Arizona Cardinals = 5-11
Lost: (S) Adrian Wilson, (ILB) Stewart Bradley, (CB) Greg Toler, (QB) Kevin Kolb, (G) Adam Snyder, (DE) Quentin Groves, (CB) William Gay, (RB) Beanie Wells
Gained: (QB) Carson Palmer, (RB) Rashard Mendenhall, (CB) Antoine Cason, (DE) Matt Shaughnessy, (ILB) Jasper Brinkley, (S) Yeremiah Bell
The Cardinals actually got better in my opinion at many areas. But the division as a whole did, and I thin that adds up to a static change in terms of wins. Carson Palmer, despite his regression from his peak, is staggeringly better than Ryan Lindley/John Skelton. Larry Fitzgerald might go back to being a great receiver with a competent QB. That defense has some special pieces, and while Darnell Docket finally seemed his age, Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson got better. That defense could really utilize their new additions (Bell, Shaughnessy, Brinkley) to make it an even better unit. In any other division, this team approaches .500, but the NFC West is just so tough right now.
3.) St. Louis Rams = 8-8
Lost: (WR) Danny Amendola, (RB) Steven Jackson, (S) Craig Dahl, (S) Quintin Mikell, (WR) Brandon Gibson
Gained: (OT) Jake Long, (TE) Jared Cook
The Rams ended up 7-8-1 last season, going 4-1-1 in the division, which is staggering. They finally gave Sam Bradford some weapons in Jared Cook and drafting two of the top receivers in the draft. Adding Jake Long is nice as well, because Bradford has often had to endure some awful blocking. That defense was very good in all the things Jeff Fisher defenses are always good in, namely getting to the QB and playing press coverage. They still have the corners and rushers to do that, and if Chris Long and more so Robert Quinn take another step up, they can have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Again, in any other division, this team could make the playoffs, while in the NFC West, if they can improve slightly on that 7-8-1 record and strike. 500 for the first time since 2006, that will be a good year.
2.) Seattle Seahawks = 10-6
Lost: (CB) Marcus Trufant, (DT) Jason Jones
Gained: (WR) Percy Harvin, (CB) Antoine Winfield, (DE) Cliff Avril, (DE) Michael Bennett
Them's the advantages of having a 3rd round rookie as your QB and the contract that comes with such a draft selection. The Seahawks have built an awesome team. So, why then am I picking them to not make the playoffs and lose more games? Because I still don't truly trust Russell Wilson. I still think if he's forced to run a pass-first offense that team could struggle. I also don't trust Percy Harvin to stay healthy all year long. That pass rush also slowed late last season, and while they got some interesting pass rushers, none of them are individually great players. The other reason is they have a really tough schedule, with drawing the good NFC South and the Giants, added onto their own division.
1.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-5 (3)
Lost: (S) Dashon Goldson, (NT) Isaac Sopoaga, (TE) Delanie Walker, (QB) Alex Smith, (WR) Tedd Ginn
Gained: (WR) Anquan Boldin, (CB) Nnamdi Asomugha, (NT) Glenn Dorsey, (K) Phil Dawson
I have no idea why I like the 49ers to retain their position and not the Seahawks. In fact, I'm already reconsidering it, but I'm not going to back off my stance. There are a lot of holes to pick with the 49ers, like the rehab of Michael Crabtree, or the loss of veteran defenders like Goldson and Sopoaga, to the lack of any real backup plan if Kaepernick gets hurt, but I don't think any of it will matter too much. Their defense is still great, their offense is still able to play any type of style (they didn't even become a primarily read-option type team until the playoffs), and I trust Jim Harbaugh to get the most out of that team. The NFC West is extremely competitive, and while 11-5 would technically be a worse record, in a way, maintaining their 11 wins would be really impressive.
NFC Wild Card Round
(6) Falcons defeat (3) 49ers 23-20
(4) Panthers defeat (5) Lions 34-17
NFC Divisional Round
(1) Giants defeat (6) Falcons 24-17
(4) Panthers defeat (2) Packers 30-24
NFC Championship Game
(1) Giants defeat (4) Panthers 27-24
4.) Philadelphia Eagles = 4-12
Lost: (LB) Akeem Jordan, (DT) Mike Patterson, (CB) Nnamdi Asomugha, (DT) Derek Landri, (DT) Cullen Jenkins
Gained: (CB) Cary Williams, (S) Kenny Phillips, (OLB) Connor Barwin, (NT) Isaac Sopoaga, (RB) Felix Jones
There is a lot of hype around the Eagles, mainly centering around the fact that Chip Kelly has come on board. Personally, I don't really understand the ridiculous amount of hype and optimism surrounding this move. Chip Kelly is famous for his up-tempo offense, but that offense has struggled against good defenses over the years, like in the 2010 National Title Game against Auburn, or their loss last year to Stanford. We've never seen any of the 'offensive genius' college head coaches succeed in the NFL yet. I'm going with the safer bet that he won't. The team lost a lot of defensive talent, and while Connor Barwin is a nice picup, I don't trust the decision to switch to the 3-4. A lot of their players will be misplaced in that defense. Finally, their offense is really lacking talent in many areas. Who are their dependable receivers? Who are their top lineman? Most importantly, what is the QB plan if (and more realistically, when) Vick goes down? Too many questions in a tough division.
3.) Dallas Cowboys = 6-10
Lost: (DT) Victor Butler, (CB) Mike Jenkins, (RB) Felix Jones, (DE) Marcus Spears, (ILB) Dan Conner, (S) Gerald Sesabaugh
Gained: (S) Will Allen, (OLB) Justin Durant
Tony Romo quietly had a very good season in 2012, with some good clutch 4th quarter performances. Of course, his last pass was a bad pick against the Redskins which cost the Cowboys the chance of tying that play-in Week 17 game. While their offense should still be good with a close to dominant Dez Bryant and a better o-line than it has been in years, the reason I don't like the Cowboys is simply what they are doing to that defense. They had one trump card on defense, which was Demarcus Ware. Well, with a switch to a Tampa-2 type defense, coordinated by an ancient Monte Kiffin, might limit Ware. It might limit a lot of people on that defense. Sean Lee could thrive if he stays healthy, but going to a Tampa-2 from whatever Rob Ryan was attempting to do is quite a change, and I don't think it works.
2.) Washington Redskins = 7-9
Lost: No One of Note
Gained: (WR) Devery Henderson, (DE) Daryl Tapp, (CB) E.J. Biggers
So, the Redskins are bringing back essentially everyone from their dream 10-6 season which ended with seven straight wins before their Wild Card loss to Seattle. Of course, the biggest impact to the Redskins season could be what happened during that game, when Robert Griffin III completely tore his ACL. RGIII's rehab is going well, but with a player like him, who's running ability makes that offense work, a reconstructed knee is a big problem. So is the fact that defenses just have to play the pistol/read-option better this year than they did last (a common theme for a few of my preseason predictions). They have the pieces around RGIII, but they probably overachieved to 10-6 a year ago, taking advantage of a injury plagued Giants team and some fortunate wins to steal the division. The defense is decent, but there's age. If Brian Orakpo comes back healthy, that pass rush should get better, but their secondary is still problematic. Overall, I'm down on the Redskins. Of course, I picked them to lose six of their seven games during that season ending win streak.
1.) New York Giants = 12-4 (1-Seed)
Lost: (DT) Chris Canty, (DE) Osi Umenyiora, (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (S) Kenny Phillips, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (OLB) Michael Boley, (ILB) Chase Blackburn
Gained: (DT) Cullen Jenkins, (ILB) Dan Conner, (WR) Louis Murphy, (DT) Mike Patterson, (OLB) Aaron Curry, (S) Ryan Mundy
Yeah, I'm buying into them again. I don't know why I keep doing this. I picked them to go 13-3 in 2010, 11-5 in 2011 (with losing the NFC Title Game, so at least I saw a nice playoff run) and 12-4 last year. All three were wrong. Only the 2011 pick came close. Still, I like this team once again. Nicks and Cruz can't possibly be as injured again. I love the addition of Brandon Myers at TE. I love the addition of Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson to that D-Line, which should get bounce back seasons from Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants always look good on paper, and end up disappointing with a 2nd half swoon. With their late season schedule (vs.GB, @WAS, @SD, vs.SEA) in a five week span late, it could happen, but once again I'll say it won't.
NFC North
4.) Minnesota Vikings = 5-11
Lost: (CB) Antoine Winfield, (WR) Michael Jenkins, (WR) Percy Harvin, (ILB) Jasper Brinkley
Gained: (ILB) Desmond Bishop, (QB) Matt Cassel, (G) Seth Olsen
The Vikings had a great draft at least right now. The Vikings also have Adrian Peterson, who is a man amongst little children at the running back position. But they really had a tough offseason, losing their only good outside weapon in Harvin, a corner who had a great year in Winfield, and they didn't really get better in free agency. Another problem is they still have Christian Ponder. Of course, he could get better, but the pieces around him aren't really helping that cause. Once again, they still have Adrian Peterson, but people who rush for 2,000 years generally don't approach that number the following season, and remember that during his historically good 8 game stretch late in the season, the Vikings went just 4-4. Combine a tough division and you get a fall-back season, especially with a defense that depends on aging stars like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams.
3.) Chicago Bears = 7-9
Lost: (ILB) Brian Urlacher, (OT) Gabe Carimi, (DE) Israel Idonije, (OLB) Nick Roach, (TE) Matt Spaeth, (G) Chilo Rachal, (TE) Kellen Davis
Gained: (DT) Sedrick Ellis, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (OT) Jermon Bushrod, (OLB) James Anderson, (S) Tom Zbikowski, (G) Eben Britton, (G) Matt Slauson, (DT) Andre Fluellen
They lost a lot of people, but they replaced a lot of them adequately. However, what they didn't replace was losing Lovie Smith, a firing that I thought was totally reactionary and hasty. That defense was special for most of the 2012 season, and I fear a massive step back. It is already hard for them to repeat the defensive scoring production they got last season, and a lot of their players are older. As for the offense, they should have the best o-line they've had since getting Cutler, and I was a fan of Marc Trestman's offense with Rich Gannon in Oakland, but Gannon's dink-and-dunk West Coast offense isn't an ideal fit for Cutler. The division doesn't help any, and without their old coach and old leader (Urlacher) I think the Bears, instead of starting strong and disappointing late, will just disappoint.
2.) Detroit Lions = 10-6 (5)
Lost: (DE) Cliff Avril, (DE) Kyle Vanden Bosch, (OT) Gosder Cherilus, (OLB) Justin Durant, (CB) Drayton Florence, (OT) Jeff Backus, (K) Jason Hanson
Gained: (RB) Reggie Bush, (G) Jake Scott, (DE) Israel Idonije, (DT) Jason Jones, (S) Glover Quin
This is probably my first "Huh?" pick, predicting a Lions team that went 4-12 in 2012 to make the playoffs. There are a lot of signs that the Lions should do better. First, they were far better than a 4-12 team, as they started 4-4, then lost their last eight. Five of those eight losses came after the Lions had fourth quarter leads, which probably won't happen again. The Lions lost some key veteran players, but I like the additions of Idonije and Jones in a Jim Schwartz defense. I love the move to get Reggie Bush, giving Stafford a reliable checkdown weapon, and Glover Quin should help that back end be anything but awful. Calvin Johnson is still Calvin Johnson and at the end of the day, that team was and still is more talented than 4-12. 2012 was a year when everything went wrong, this year I think some of it goes right.
1.) Green Bay Packers = 12-4 (2)
Lost: (WR) Greg Jennings, (S) Charles Woodson, (OLB) Frank Zombo, (ILB) Desmond Bishop, (OLB) Erik Walden, (WR) Donald Driver
Gained: No one, like always.
The Packers got another stellar season from Aaron Rodgers, a breakout season from Randall Cobb, a bounceback season from Clay Matthews, and somehow lost four more games in 2012 than they did the year before. At some point, Aaron Rodgers will be simply great instead of inhuman, and losing Greg Jennings could hurt that team, but I liked the draft picks of Eddie Lacy and Anthony Franklin. Of course, what makes a run game work even more is good lineman, which they don't really have. Their defense has good young players, and I think will improve even more. Combine a better defense (I really like Cam Heyward at CB) and an offense that shouldn't get too much worse, and you get a team that will do what the Packers should do every year: go around 12-4, and compete for a one-seed and the Super Bowl.
NFC South
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 5-11
Lost: (OT) Jeremy Trueblood, (WR) Arrelious Benn, (DE) Michael Bennett, (CB) E.J. Biggers, (CB) Ronde Barber
Gained: (S) Dashon Goldson, (DT) Derek Landri, (OT) Gabe Carimi, (CB) Darrelle Revis, (WR) Kevin Ogletree
The Buccaneers had a nice offseason. They nabbed the NFL's best corner (who has to be healthy, but that is a questionmark), a good, solid safety in Goldson, and another nice weapon for Josh Freeman in Ogletree. Of course, that last name is the issue. Josh Freeman. After a great 2010 season, we've seen two straight subpar years. Freeman and Vincent Jackson had a nice connection, but Freeman was mostly garbage throwing to anyone else late last season. Freeman hasn't improved at all over the last few years, and at some point you reach a time when it is clear he just won't at all. That defense still has major holes that weren't really filled at linebacker (outside of Lavonte David) and lineman (outside of Gerald McCoy), and if Revis isn't what Revis was pre-ACL injury, that secondary is once again a mess. It will be interesting if they do fail to compete in 2013 if Schiano is given the quick pass he was given after a disappointing season in 2012.
3.) New Orleans Saints = 8-8
Lost: (OT) Jermon Bushrod, (DT) Sedrick Ellis, (RB) Chris Ivory
Gained: (DE) Victor Butler, (CB) Keenan Lewis, (OT) Jason Smith, (S) Jim Leohnard
There are two schools of thought around the Saints. The first is that we should write off 2012 due to Payton's bounty-gate absence and the Saints will be in 2013 what they were in 2011. The other is that 2012 Saints showed flaws that haven't gone away and flaws that the return of Sean Payton can't absorb away. I'm in the latter camp. We have seen a Sean Payton led Saints team miss the playoffs. In fact, we've seen it twice. The Saints arguably had more talent in those seasons than they have now. Drew Brees ended up with another monstrous season statistically, but he threw a lot of bad picks, something that he does when he gets pressured and doesn't have a reliable run game. Well, with Carl Nicks still not replaced and his previous starting center and left tackle missing, and without any new solution to the ills of the run game, that could easily repeat itself in 2013. Then there is getting Rob Ryan, who's resume is built almost solely off his last name and the 2006 Raiders defense, which had the good fortune of playing with the 2006 Raiders offense. That offense was so bad teams didn't have to try on offense against the Raiders, making their defense statistically good. All other Rob Ryan defense: statistically average to terrible.
2.) Atlanta Falcons = 10-6 (6)
Lost: (OT) Tyson Clabo, (CB) Chris Owens, (DE) John Abraham, (CB) Dunta Robinson, (C) Todd McClure, (CB) Brent Grimes
Gained: (DE) Osi Umenyiora, (RB) Steven Jackson
That is a pretty lopsided 'Lost vs. Gained' section. The Falcons lost six contributors, including their best (and basically only consistent) source of pass rush, two of their three best corners, two of their lineman (and two guys that had been there for Matt Ryan's entire career), and offset those losses with a pass rusher who looked one step slower in 2012 in Osi and Steven Jackson, who is still quite good but is getting up there in mileage. The Falcons had a dream season in 2012, and if not for a Matt Ryan bobbled snap or Harry Douglas' ability to stay on his feet with an open field ahead of him, they make the Super Bowl. The Falcons have had some great seasons recently, but never back to back, and I think that continues. That offense is still fearsome, but their defense was usually good enough to pull out some games when Matt Ryan was having average days. I don't think they are that good anymore.
1.) Carolina Panthers = 10-6 (4)
Lost: (OLB) James Anderson, (CB) Chris Gamble
Gained: (CB) Drayton Florence, (WR) Tedd Ginn, (WR) Dominek Hixon, (S) Mike Mitchell, (ILB) Chase Blackburn
No team has ever repeated as NFC South champs since the creation of the division in 2012. I don't think many realize, but the Panthers ended up 2nd in the NFC last year, quietly sweeping the Saints. The Panthers ended strongly partly because the schedule got easier, but also because of improvements on either side of hte ball. Luke Kuechly's move inside unleashed a monster and that front seven dominated. Then, Cam stopped throwing picks and that offense started resembling what was a fascinating offense in 2011. Their running backs alternate disappointing and awesome games, and I think they'll have more of the latter in 2013. I like the additions on defense for a team that just needs average production from their secondary. Why not the Panthers?
NFC West
4.) Arizona Cardinals = 5-11
Lost: (S) Adrian Wilson, (ILB) Stewart Bradley, (CB) Greg Toler, (QB) Kevin Kolb, (G) Adam Snyder, (DE) Quentin Groves, (CB) William Gay, (RB) Beanie Wells
Gained: (QB) Carson Palmer, (RB) Rashard Mendenhall, (CB) Antoine Cason, (DE) Matt Shaughnessy, (ILB) Jasper Brinkley, (S) Yeremiah Bell
The Cardinals actually got better in my opinion at many areas. But the division as a whole did, and I thin that adds up to a static change in terms of wins. Carson Palmer, despite his regression from his peak, is staggeringly better than Ryan Lindley/John Skelton. Larry Fitzgerald might go back to being a great receiver with a competent QB. That defense has some special pieces, and while Darnell Docket finally seemed his age, Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson got better. That defense could really utilize their new additions (Bell, Shaughnessy, Brinkley) to make it an even better unit. In any other division, this team approaches .500, but the NFC West is just so tough right now.
3.) St. Louis Rams = 8-8
Lost: (WR) Danny Amendola, (RB) Steven Jackson, (S) Craig Dahl, (S) Quintin Mikell, (WR) Brandon Gibson
Gained: (OT) Jake Long, (TE) Jared Cook
The Rams ended up 7-8-1 last season, going 4-1-1 in the division, which is staggering. They finally gave Sam Bradford some weapons in Jared Cook and drafting two of the top receivers in the draft. Adding Jake Long is nice as well, because Bradford has often had to endure some awful blocking. That defense was very good in all the things Jeff Fisher defenses are always good in, namely getting to the QB and playing press coverage. They still have the corners and rushers to do that, and if Chris Long and more so Robert Quinn take another step up, they can have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Again, in any other division, this team could make the playoffs, while in the NFC West, if they can improve slightly on that 7-8-1 record and strike. 500 for the first time since 2006, that will be a good year.
2.) Seattle Seahawks = 10-6
Lost: (CB) Marcus Trufant, (DT) Jason Jones
Gained: (WR) Percy Harvin, (CB) Antoine Winfield, (DE) Cliff Avril, (DE) Michael Bennett
Them's the advantages of having a 3rd round rookie as your QB and the contract that comes with such a draft selection. The Seahawks have built an awesome team. So, why then am I picking them to not make the playoffs and lose more games? Because I still don't truly trust Russell Wilson. I still think if he's forced to run a pass-first offense that team could struggle. I also don't trust Percy Harvin to stay healthy all year long. That pass rush also slowed late last season, and while they got some interesting pass rushers, none of them are individually great players. The other reason is they have a really tough schedule, with drawing the good NFC South and the Giants, added onto their own division.
1.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-5 (3)
Lost: (S) Dashon Goldson, (NT) Isaac Sopoaga, (TE) Delanie Walker, (QB) Alex Smith, (WR) Tedd Ginn
Gained: (WR) Anquan Boldin, (CB) Nnamdi Asomugha, (NT) Glenn Dorsey, (K) Phil Dawson
I have no idea why I like the 49ers to retain their position and not the Seahawks. In fact, I'm already reconsidering it, but I'm not going to back off my stance. There are a lot of holes to pick with the 49ers, like the rehab of Michael Crabtree, or the loss of veteran defenders like Goldson and Sopoaga, to the lack of any real backup plan if Kaepernick gets hurt, but I don't think any of it will matter too much. Their defense is still great, their offense is still able to play any type of style (they didn't even become a primarily read-option type team until the playoffs), and I trust Jim Harbaugh to get the most out of that team. The NFC West is extremely competitive, and while 11-5 would technically be a worse record, in a way, maintaining their 11 wins would be really impressive.
NFC Wild Card Round
(6) Falcons defeat (3) 49ers 23-20
(4) Panthers defeat (5) Lions 34-17
NFC Divisional Round
(1) Giants defeat (6) Falcons 24-17
(4) Panthers defeat (2) Packers 30-24
NFC Championship Game
(1) Giants defeat (4) Panthers 27-24
