Week 1 Picks: 9-7
New York Jets (1-0) @ New England Patriots (1-0) (NE -11)
This is a high line for a team missing their best receiver (and only receiver who played worth a damn in the first game against Buffalo), with one half of their running game combo gone and Gronkowski not back. As they showed again last week, Rex Ryan can gameplan the hell out of an offense with no weapons. Tom Brady is great, but yeah, they have no one to throw to. To me, it comes down to whether I think the Jets can even score 10 points. Geno Smith played better than I he would be, but this is a really tough spot for them. I'll take the Jets just because that line is a little ridiculous, but I've been burned by New England before.
Jets 14 Patriots 20 (NYJ +11)
San Diego Chargers (0-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) (PHI -7)
Overreaction line of the week part 1. The Chargers probably should have closed out a good Houston team Monday Night, and the Eagles had to hang on to beat an average Redskin team. Yes, the Chargers did their mess at home while the Eagles did theirs on the road, but I think these teams are close than that line would make it seem. What scares me is the Chargers having to go to Philadelphia to play an early game, but I love going against the overreaction lines from Week 1. No one is as good as they looked in Week 1 (Denver, probably) and no one looks as bad (Jags probably won't get shutout on offense again). The Eagles probably won't look as good. I don't know why I keep doing this, but I'll still trust Philip Rivers. Again, I don't know why. I just don't know. I need to stop. This blog started in 2009, and when I think of Philip Rivers, I mentally just go back to then, I guess.
Chargers 23 Eagles 20 (SD +7)
Cleveland Browns (0-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-0) (BAL -7)
What's weird is this line was probably dropped a bit because of just how bad Baltimore looked in Week 1 in Denver. Of course, the Browns looked about as bad at home against a worse team. The Browns were just so unable to do anything against the Dolphins defense (which is admittedly quite good), while the Ravens actually scored 14 legitimate points. So far, I went against the high lines for the Jets and Chargers, but I hate the Browns here. The Ravens were embarrassed after that Week 1 performance and will come out strong in their home opener (not sure if there will be some Super Bowl festivities before the game), and the Ravens love to cream the Browns. Once again, this reasoning worked better when Reed and Lewis were there, but that Ravens defense, as weird as this sounds, wasn't all that bad in Week 1. They can dominate Weeden, and I think they will.
Browns 13 Ravens 27 (BAL -7)
Tennessee Titans (1-0) @ Houston Texans (1-0) (HOU -9)
I hate this game. I hate a line this high when it seems so easy to push the points. The Texans are still a lot better, and the Titans offense looked quite bad in Week 1. I'm not really sure how the Titans managed to score at all in Week 1, and the Texans defense is probably better than the Steelers defense at this point. The Texans offense started clicking late in the game, and they're going up against a defense that played pretty close to perfect. Anyway, I don't want to overthink this at all, I'll just go with the better team at home.
Titans 13 Texans 28 (HOU -9)
Carolina Panthers (0-1) @ Buffalo Bills (0-1) (CAR -3)
Two of the teams that had the most heartbreaking losses in Week 1. The Panthers, I think, win that game if DeAngelo Williams doesn't fumble. The Bills win that game if they just make one more play on those Patriots 3rd downs on the final drive, or if Doug Marrone realized that you shouldn't run a hurry-up fast paced offense when up late in the 4th quarter, and if he realized that on a 3rd and 1 at midfield, with the running game starting to really work, maybe a run is a better call than a pass. Anyway, no, I'm not bitter that they couldn't close out the Pats. Anyway, I'm surprised the Panthers are favored here by this much, but I do think they are a more talented team. Their defense is great, and as long as you can shut down that Bills run game, they are a pretty easy team to figure out.
Panthers 23 Bills 17 (CAR -3)
St. Louis Rams (1-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (0-1) (ATL -5.5)
High line, but I can't imagine the Falcons going to 0-2. The question is can I see them winning this game by at least 5.5. The Rams offense looked alive last week, playing about as well as I have seen them play since maybe Week 2 last year (a wild win over the Redskins). They have a dependable target for the first time in Jared Cook. What scares me for Atlanta is that they looked so bad trying to block the Saints last week, and the Saints aren't a particularly good defensive front. The Rams are a pretty good defensive front, and they might wreak havoc on that Falcons offense. I really think this is a perfect line for this game. I have no idea what to do, but I do think the Falcons just can't start 0-2.
Rams 17 Falcons 24 (ATL -5.5)
Minnesota Vikings (0-1) @ Chicago Bears (1-0) (CHI -6.5)
Is this an overreaction line? The Bears somehow pull out a win over the Bengals, while the Vikings do everything wrong after Peterson's first run. Either way, this line seems a little high. I'm not ready to truly trust that Chicago offense, and while it's nice to be at home, I don't like this line this high. My problem is can the Vikings score enough to keep it close? The Vikings offense ended up scoring a decent amount of points, but all of the problems that Ponder showed in 2012 was quite apparent in Week 1 this year. Either way, what I would love to do is do a three-team tease with the Vikings as one of them (pushing them into double digit underdog territory), but since I'm not advocating being a gambling addict, I'm avoiding that temptation and taking the Vikings normally.
Vikings 17 Bears 20 (MIN +6)
Miami Dolphins (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-0) (IND -3)
The Dolphins definitely looked to be a better team in their Week 1 win than the Colts looked like in Week 1. Both had what seems to be bad opponents (Cleveland, Oakland), but the Colts had to escape with a four-point win at home and the Dolphins owned Cleveland on the road. They played an entertaining game last year after both started 3-2, with the Colts winning behind Andrew Luck's rookie-record 426 yards. I can't see Luck doing that, but I have major problems with the Colts right now. Their defense has no real identity, no real mission. I'm not quite sure what they're building over there. The Dolphins know what they have and it works really well. The Colts offense is still good and in the Luck era, the Colts are now 8-1 at home, but I just don't like how that team played in Week 1. Combine this with Ballard on IR and Allen likely out, and I don't think the Colts can score enough.
Dolphins 24 Colts 20 (MIA +3)
Dallas Cowboys (1-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) (KC -3)
I'm surprised the Chiefs are favored by so much. I realize that the Chiefs were really, really impressive beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville and the Cowboys needed a sixth turnover to close out a team after getting five already. That's not good. What's worse is that Cowboys offense was really ineffective. I've never seen a guy have 36 completions for barely over 250 yards. That was dink and dunk to a level I haven't seen before. The Chiefs are a decent team, but I can see some regression after a picture perfect Week 1, but Andy Reid loved to beat up on the Cowboys. I'm sure he would love to once again, especially in his first home game of his tenure there. The line is also low enough to be safe with picking the winner and the line correct together.
Cowboys 20 Chiefs 24 (KC -3)
Washington Redskins (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (0-1) (GB -7.5)
I actually was really impressed with the Packers performance in Week 1. Their offense blocked the 49ers better than it did in either game a year ago, and the Rodgers-to-Nelson combination looked like it did back in 2010-11. Their defense was aggressive, shutting down the run, and while Kaepernick and Boldin diced him all over the place, they were missing some of their guys. I can't see the Redskins establishing much of a run game in this game either. I didn't see much of the MNF game against the Eagles, but by all accounts RGIII just isn't close to 100% yet, and a game in Lambeau against a rejuvanated defense probably isn't the best way to get ready.
Redskins 21 Packers 31 (GB -7.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) @ Oakland Raiders (0-1) (OAK -6)
The Raiders could end up as the worst team ever to be favored in a game by six points. And yes, that is how bad the Jaguars were last week. The Raiders actually seemed somewhat competent in that game, with Terrelle Pryor playing really well. I think he might struggle a bit at home, but they don't need to score too many points to beat the Jaguars, a team that scored all of zero points last week. By the way, I've already written five lines on this game. That is four lines more than necessary.
Jaguars 14 Raiders 21 (OAK -6)
New Orleans Saints (1-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) (NO -4)
So, are the Saints back, or are they just lucky that the Falcons screwed up an inside the 10 scenario down by less than a score for the third time dating back to last October. Rob Ryan's defense seemed OK in the first game, but history shows that Ryan's defenses have a tendency to play up or down to their competition (not in a good way, by the way). I can see their defense trying to be too cute and give up ~160 yards to Vincent Jackson. I say this as a long way of saying that I still think the Saints win and cover this line, because I can't think less of what the Buccaneers are right now.
Saints 27 Buccaneers 20 (NO -4)
Detroit Lions (1-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (0-1) (DET -2.5)
Oddly intriguing game here. If the Broncos and Giants weren't playing Manning Bowl III, I might sit down and watch a whole bunch of this game. Fun teams, fun stadium, fun everywhere. Can Stafford throw for a bunch of yards against a good defense at home. Can Palmer survive the Lions front with his O-Line? Can the Cardinals become one of the best 0-2 teams of all time? So many possibilities. Honestly, I can see a lot of potential things happening here. However, what I think will happen is the Cardinals, like they are prone to do a handful of times each year, play inspired at home.
Lions 20 Cardinals 23 (ARZ +2.5)
Denver Broncos (1-0) @ New York Giants (0-1) (DEN -4)
Manning Bowl III. Yes, this was also my preseason Super Bowl pick, and a Giants loss here makes them 0-2, which is not exactly good for their Super Bowl hopes. Of course, in 2007, they started 0-2 and won the Super Bowl, but that is notable because it is rare. Anyway, I can't really see the Giants stopping the Broncos from scoring in the high 20's at the very best. The Broncos defense was really impressive, even for a team that gave up 27 points, and they have enough players in the secondary to slow down those Giants receivers. The Giants run game is also in dissarray. The Broncos are just a better team right now, and I may have truly overestimated the Giants (and Steelers) this year.
Broncos 30 Giants 21 (DEN -4)
San Francisco 49ers (1-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-0) (SEA -2.5)
Great game. Great rivalry. These teams met in two night games last year, with the 49ers winning a bloodbath 13-6 against the Seahawks early, and the Seahawks blowing them out 42-14 in the return leg in Qwest (I refuse to call it whatever they do these days). I can't see 42-14 happening this time (that was the week after the 49ers played an emotional, tiring, bruising game in New England), but I can definitely see the Seahawks winning by enough to make everyone think they are the to Super Bowl candidate. The Seahawks defense needs to get more pressure though. They did nothing against Cam Newton last week, and they need to get bodies after Kaepernick to have a shot. I think they do, just enough, and take the points with a low line.
49ers 20 Seahawks 23 (SEA -2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) (CIN -6.5)
This is the most the Steelers have been underdogs in since their game against the Patriots in 2007 (with Roethlisberger starting). The Bengals themselves let a win slip away last week, the type of game they have to close out if they want people to take them seriously as Super Bowl contenders. The Steelers offense looked as bad as it ever has considering the perceived mediocrity of their opponent. The Titans aren't a great team, they were abhorrent in scoring defense last year, and the Steelers only offensive points came in garbage time. The Steelers defense is still good, and they absolutely dominated the Bengals offense in Cincinnati in a night game last year. I still like the Steelers defense, but that offense is just so bad. In the end, the line seems high enough that there is some value in the Steelers in this game to cover, but still lose.
Steelers 17 Bengals 21 (PIT +6.5)
New York Jets (1-0) @ New England Patriots (1-0) (NE -11)
This is a high line for a team missing their best receiver (and only receiver who played worth a damn in the first game against Buffalo), with one half of their running game combo gone and Gronkowski not back. As they showed again last week, Rex Ryan can gameplan the hell out of an offense with no weapons. Tom Brady is great, but yeah, they have no one to throw to. To me, it comes down to whether I think the Jets can even score 10 points. Geno Smith played better than I he would be, but this is a really tough spot for them. I'll take the Jets just because that line is a little ridiculous, but I've been burned by New England before.
Jets 14 Patriots 20 (NYJ +11)
San Diego Chargers (0-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) (PHI -7)
Overreaction line of the week part 1. The Chargers probably should have closed out a good Houston team Monday Night, and the Eagles had to hang on to beat an average Redskin team. Yes, the Chargers did their mess at home while the Eagles did theirs on the road, but I think these teams are close than that line would make it seem. What scares me is the Chargers having to go to Philadelphia to play an early game, but I love going against the overreaction lines from Week 1. No one is as good as they looked in Week 1 (Denver, probably) and no one looks as bad (Jags probably won't get shutout on offense again). The Eagles probably won't look as good. I don't know why I keep doing this, but I'll still trust Philip Rivers. Again, I don't know why. I just don't know. I need to stop. This blog started in 2009, and when I think of Philip Rivers, I mentally just go back to then, I guess.
Chargers 23 Eagles 20 (SD +7)
Cleveland Browns (0-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-0) (BAL -7)
What's weird is this line was probably dropped a bit because of just how bad Baltimore looked in Week 1 in Denver. Of course, the Browns looked about as bad at home against a worse team. The Browns were just so unable to do anything against the Dolphins defense (which is admittedly quite good), while the Ravens actually scored 14 legitimate points. So far, I went against the high lines for the Jets and Chargers, but I hate the Browns here. The Ravens were embarrassed after that Week 1 performance and will come out strong in their home opener (not sure if there will be some Super Bowl festivities before the game), and the Ravens love to cream the Browns. Once again, this reasoning worked better when Reed and Lewis were there, but that Ravens defense, as weird as this sounds, wasn't all that bad in Week 1. They can dominate Weeden, and I think they will.
Browns 13 Ravens 27 (BAL -7)
Tennessee Titans (1-0) @ Houston Texans (1-0) (HOU -9)
I hate this game. I hate a line this high when it seems so easy to push the points. The Texans are still a lot better, and the Titans offense looked quite bad in Week 1. I'm not really sure how the Titans managed to score at all in Week 1, and the Texans defense is probably better than the Steelers defense at this point. The Texans offense started clicking late in the game, and they're going up against a defense that played pretty close to perfect. Anyway, I don't want to overthink this at all, I'll just go with the better team at home.
Titans 13 Texans 28 (HOU -9)
Carolina Panthers (0-1) @ Buffalo Bills (0-1) (CAR -3)
Two of the teams that had the most heartbreaking losses in Week 1. The Panthers, I think, win that game if DeAngelo Williams doesn't fumble. The Bills win that game if they just make one more play on those Patriots 3rd downs on the final drive, or if Doug Marrone realized that you shouldn't run a hurry-up fast paced offense when up late in the 4th quarter, and if he realized that on a 3rd and 1 at midfield, with the running game starting to really work, maybe a run is a better call than a pass. Anyway, no, I'm not bitter that they couldn't close out the Pats. Anyway, I'm surprised the Panthers are favored here by this much, but I do think they are a more talented team. Their defense is great, and as long as you can shut down that Bills run game, they are a pretty easy team to figure out.
Panthers 23 Bills 17 (CAR -3)
St. Louis Rams (1-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (0-1) (ATL -5.5)
High line, but I can't imagine the Falcons going to 0-2. The question is can I see them winning this game by at least 5.5. The Rams offense looked alive last week, playing about as well as I have seen them play since maybe Week 2 last year (a wild win over the Redskins). They have a dependable target for the first time in Jared Cook. What scares me for Atlanta is that they looked so bad trying to block the Saints last week, and the Saints aren't a particularly good defensive front. The Rams are a pretty good defensive front, and they might wreak havoc on that Falcons offense. I really think this is a perfect line for this game. I have no idea what to do, but I do think the Falcons just can't start 0-2.
Rams 17 Falcons 24 (ATL -5.5)
Minnesota Vikings (0-1) @ Chicago Bears (1-0) (CHI -6.5)
Is this an overreaction line? The Bears somehow pull out a win over the Bengals, while the Vikings do everything wrong after Peterson's first run. Either way, this line seems a little high. I'm not ready to truly trust that Chicago offense, and while it's nice to be at home, I don't like this line this high. My problem is can the Vikings score enough to keep it close? The Vikings offense ended up scoring a decent amount of points, but all of the problems that Ponder showed in 2012 was quite apparent in Week 1 this year. Either way, what I would love to do is do a three-team tease with the Vikings as one of them (pushing them into double digit underdog territory), but since I'm not advocating being a gambling addict, I'm avoiding that temptation and taking the Vikings normally.
Vikings 17 Bears 20 (MIN +6)
Miami Dolphins (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-0) (IND -3)
The Dolphins definitely looked to be a better team in their Week 1 win than the Colts looked like in Week 1. Both had what seems to be bad opponents (Cleveland, Oakland), but the Colts had to escape with a four-point win at home and the Dolphins owned Cleveland on the road. They played an entertaining game last year after both started 3-2, with the Colts winning behind Andrew Luck's rookie-record 426 yards. I can't see Luck doing that, but I have major problems with the Colts right now. Their defense has no real identity, no real mission. I'm not quite sure what they're building over there. The Dolphins know what they have and it works really well. The Colts offense is still good and in the Luck era, the Colts are now 8-1 at home, but I just don't like how that team played in Week 1. Combine this with Ballard on IR and Allen likely out, and I don't think the Colts can score enough.
Dolphins 24 Colts 20 (MIA +3)
Dallas Cowboys (1-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) (KC -3)
I'm surprised the Chiefs are favored by so much. I realize that the Chiefs were really, really impressive beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville and the Cowboys needed a sixth turnover to close out a team after getting five already. That's not good. What's worse is that Cowboys offense was really ineffective. I've never seen a guy have 36 completions for barely over 250 yards. That was dink and dunk to a level I haven't seen before. The Chiefs are a decent team, but I can see some regression after a picture perfect Week 1, but Andy Reid loved to beat up on the Cowboys. I'm sure he would love to once again, especially in his first home game of his tenure there. The line is also low enough to be safe with picking the winner and the line correct together.
Cowboys 20 Chiefs 24 (KC -3)
Washington Redskins (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (0-1) (GB -7.5)
I actually was really impressed with the Packers performance in Week 1. Their offense blocked the 49ers better than it did in either game a year ago, and the Rodgers-to-Nelson combination looked like it did back in 2010-11. Their defense was aggressive, shutting down the run, and while Kaepernick and Boldin diced him all over the place, they were missing some of their guys. I can't see the Redskins establishing much of a run game in this game either. I didn't see much of the MNF game against the Eagles, but by all accounts RGIII just isn't close to 100% yet, and a game in Lambeau against a rejuvanated defense probably isn't the best way to get ready.
Redskins 21 Packers 31 (GB -7.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) @ Oakland Raiders (0-1) (OAK -6)
The Raiders could end up as the worst team ever to be favored in a game by six points. And yes, that is how bad the Jaguars were last week. The Raiders actually seemed somewhat competent in that game, with Terrelle Pryor playing really well. I think he might struggle a bit at home, but they don't need to score too many points to beat the Jaguars, a team that scored all of zero points last week. By the way, I've already written five lines on this game. That is four lines more than necessary.
Jaguars 14 Raiders 21 (OAK -6)
New Orleans Saints (1-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) (NO -4)
So, are the Saints back, or are they just lucky that the Falcons screwed up an inside the 10 scenario down by less than a score for the third time dating back to last October. Rob Ryan's defense seemed OK in the first game, but history shows that Ryan's defenses have a tendency to play up or down to their competition (not in a good way, by the way). I can see their defense trying to be too cute and give up ~160 yards to Vincent Jackson. I say this as a long way of saying that I still think the Saints win and cover this line, because I can't think less of what the Buccaneers are right now.
Saints 27 Buccaneers 20 (NO -4)
Detroit Lions (1-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (0-1) (DET -2.5)
Oddly intriguing game here. If the Broncos and Giants weren't playing Manning Bowl III, I might sit down and watch a whole bunch of this game. Fun teams, fun stadium, fun everywhere. Can Stafford throw for a bunch of yards against a good defense at home. Can Palmer survive the Lions front with his O-Line? Can the Cardinals become one of the best 0-2 teams of all time? So many possibilities. Honestly, I can see a lot of potential things happening here. However, what I think will happen is the Cardinals, like they are prone to do a handful of times each year, play inspired at home.
Lions 20 Cardinals 23 (ARZ +2.5)
Denver Broncos (1-0) @ New York Giants (0-1) (DEN -4)
Manning Bowl III. Yes, this was also my preseason Super Bowl pick, and a Giants loss here makes them 0-2, which is not exactly good for their Super Bowl hopes. Of course, in 2007, they started 0-2 and won the Super Bowl, but that is notable because it is rare. Anyway, I can't really see the Giants stopping the Broncos from scoring in the high 20's at the very best. The Broncos defense was really impressive, even for a team that gave up 27 points, and they have enough players in the secondary to slow down those Giants receivers. The Giants run game is also in dissarray. The Broncos are just a better team right now, and I may have truly overestimated the Giants (and Steelers) this year.
Broncos 30 Giants 21 (DEN -4)
San Francisco 49ers (1-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-0) (SEA -2.5)
Great game. Great rivalry. These teams met in two night games last year, with the 49ers winning a bloodbath 13-6 against the Seahawks early, and the Seahawks blowing them out 42-14 in the return leg in Qwest (I refuse to call it whatever they do these days). I can't see 42-14 happening this time (that was the week after the 49ers played an emotional, tiring, bruising game in New England), but I can definitely see the Seahawks winning by enough to make everyone think they are the to Super Bowl candidate. The Seahawks defense needs to get more pressure though. They did nothing against Cam Newton last week, and they need to get bodies after Kaepernick to have a shot. I think they do, just enough, and take the points with a low line.
49ers 20 Seahawks 23 (SEA -2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) (CIN -6.5)
This is the most the Steelers have been underdogs in since their game against the Patriots in 2007 (with Roethlisberger starting). The Bengals themselves let a win slip away last week, the type of game they have to close out if they want people to take them seriously as Super Bowl contenders. The Steelers offense looked as bad as it ever has considering the perceived mediocrity of their opponent. The Titans aren't a great team, they were abhorrent in scoring defense last year, and the Steelers only offensive points came in garbage time. The Steelers defense is still good, and they absolutely dominated the Bengals offense in Cincinnati in a night game last year. I still like the Steelers defense, but that offense is just so bad. In the end, the line seems high enough that there is some value in the Steelers in this game to cover, but still lose.
Steelers 17 Bengals 21 (PIT +6.5)
