Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-4)
This will be short. The NFL started this routine of giving the defending champ the home opener to kick-off the season in 2004. Since then, eight defending champs have won eight games. Only two (the 2008 Giants and 2009 Steelers) didn't cover. I've already gone on record saying the Giants will be really good this season, and I am less high on Dallas. I could be wrong, but even then, that is a trend I will go by until a road team wins this game.
Cowboys 16 Giants 24 (NYG)
Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears (-10)
The Andrew Luck era begins in earnest against my NFC Super Bowl pick, which doesn't bode well for Andrew Luck. Luck looked good in the preseason, but this isn't the preseason and the Bears defense is good. They won't outfox him, but they will play Cover-2 better than anything Luck has ever seen. Peppers against Costanzo should be an interesting test for the young guy, but the Bears should kill the rest of the line. The real issue is can the Colts defense hold the Bears down enough, and I don't think they can. The Colts have not shown their ability to rush the passer, which is critical against the Bears, or stop the run. They haven't defended RBs well all preseason. They have no one to cover Marshall. I like the Bears. This is a high line, but the Bears are a good, good team.
Colts 13 Bears 27 (CHI)
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cleveland Browns
This is a high line for a road team, especially for one coming off of an 8-8 season, but I do expect big things from the Eagles this season. The question is are they this much better than the Browns in Cleveland. What the Eagles have going for them is that Weeden is making his first career start against a really great d-line. The Browns do have some nice pieces on their o-line, but I doubt they can contain the full rush. With Trent Richardson gimpy, I like the Browns chances even less. The Browns do have a good defense and should be able to contain the Eagles from dropping 35+, but I don't think they can score enough points for the Eagles not to cover.
Eagles 27 Browns 14 (PHI)
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-3)
Odd line, as the -3 essentially means that these teams are even, which I think is about right, but the Jets have been able to confound the Bills offense during the Gailey era. Last year, Fitzpatrick had no idea what to do against the Jets in the 1st half. The Jets are still about as good as the Bills, and being at home, I like their chances. The Bills defensive line can give the Jets problems, but other than maybe switching Mario Williams over the RT, the Jets have the horses up front. The game is probably around this 3-4 points margin either way, but I'm not ready to trust the Bills to win a game in New York on opening day.
Bills 20 Jets 24 (NYJ)
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
The Saints are lucky they get their first post-Bounty game at home against a rookie QB. Luckily for Griffin, the Saints aren't a great defense, so I don't think they can confound RGIII that much. The Redskins should have success running the ball no matter who the back is (Evan Royster, I believe), and Griffin should have some time against a pass rush that isn't all that great unless they blitz. The other side of the ball is the bigger issue. The Saints scored 40+ in their last five home games they have played. I think that streak ends, but the Saints still have advantageous matchups all over. The Redskins should be able to get decent pressure against Brees, but decent is not enough really.
Redskins 20 Saints 31 (NO)
New England Patriots (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans
The Patriots are the better team. They are probably the much better team. But there is a reason that this line is only 5.5, especially considering the Patriots are a huge public team. Vegas seems to know something. The Patriots are good, but I don't love this matchup for them. Their o-line is replacing three players (Light, Waters, Kaczur) and their line looked mediocre in the preseason, and Brady isn't all that good with a mediocre line. The tackles looked young and overmatched, and Vollmer's balky back is a little scary. The Titans offense is not great, but I like their matchup with a defense that I still feel is bad. I think the Patriots win. I mean, I'm not that stupid. But I like the Titans to make this a game and make it close.
Patriots 24 Titans 20 (TEN)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Perfect matchup here. Two teams that I think are 5 win teams at best, but one of them will start 1-0. Here we have the two QBs that looked the worst out of the 1st round picks last season in Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert. I think the Jags are better, but Gabbert can be abused by Jared Allen and the Vikings d-line. With Mo-Jo Drew limited, the Jags don't have the passing offense to test the Vikings awful secondary. The other side of the ball places a good Jags defense against an average offense. I really hope Ponder struggles so we can all at least see what the Vikings are with Joe Webb as the full-time starter. I really have no idea what will happen in this game other than the fact that it will be most likely low scoring. I think the Jaguars win. I have no idea why other than their defense is better than the Vikings matchup-adjusted defense.
Jaguars 17 Vikings 13 (JAX)
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (-12)
If there is going to be a blowout this week it is this game. The Dolphins are breaking in a rookie QB with an o-line that is not all that good with no true receivers against the one of the best defenses in the NFL. I can see Tannehill just getting rocked by the Texans multi-faceted pass rush (Barwin, Reed, Watt, Smith, Cushing, Mercilus). Wade Phillips must thank the lord every day that he left that zoo in Dallas and got to coordinate this group of banshees. On the other end, the Dolphins have no one to stop a healthy Andre Johnson or Arian Foster. Their pass rush, apart from Cameron Wake who should be mostly neutralized against Duane Brown, isn't good enough to get to Schaub consistently. I just don't see any way the Dolphins really make this competitive.
Dolphins 10 Texans 31 (HOU - MY LOCK OF THE WEEK)
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-7.5)
I'm surprised this line is not higher. The Rams would probably fare better against a pass-first team like Detroit than a run-first team, but even then, I'm stunned this line is not higher. The Rams pass rush might actually stop the Lions from scoring a ridiculous amount of points, and Cortland Finnegan is good enough that Calvin might not have a great day, but the Lions defense is built to beat the Rams. The Rams o-line is garbage. Especially the interior. Ndamukong Suh should abuse the Rams interior line. The Lions have great matchups on that side of the ball, and even if it isn't as explosive as many of their wins in 2011, it probably will be a comfortable win nonetheless.
Rams 13 Lions 27 (DET)
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs
I feel like a broken record, but I'm leaning towards the favorite again. So far I've only picked two underdogs, and only one to win outright (the Jaguars), and that trend continues here. I just don't think the Chiefs are nearly as good as the rest of society, apparently. Mainly because Matt Cassel just is not that good, and neither is his o-line. The Falcons front should be able to get to Cassel, who struggles badly when pressured. The Falcons o-line doesn't even have to face Tamba Hali. Their offense should be fine, as the Chiefs don't have enough corners to cover everybody the Falcons can throw at them. I doubt Michael Turner goes off, but I doubt he needs to.
Falcons 30 Chiefs 13 (ATL)
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Man, this is a great, great game for Week 1. It is really wasted this early in the season not in primetime. I would love to watch this in Week 15 in 20 degree weather under the lights. But alas, we get it in Week 1. I can see so many things happening in this game, but the one thing I can't see is a blowout either way. The Packers are the better team, but I don't like their matchup against that 49ers defense. The Packers o-line has looked a little shaky, and the 49ers have the best front-7 in the NFL rght now. I can Justin Smith just abuse the Pack, as well as Ray McDonald against an aged Jeff Saturday. Forget about Aldon Smith against Marshall Newhouse. On the other side, the Packers need their 2010 pass rush to return, because the 2011 vintage shouldn't trouble Smith. I actually really like the 49ers in this game, but I can't pick against Rodgers at Lambeau. I can't see him having another off day. This is one of the hardest picks to make this week. I'm going to start going with my head more this season, so I'll do that and take the team with the matchup advantages.
49ers 24 Packers 23 (SF - MY UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK)*
* - I was about to go with the Jaguars over the Vikings as my upset. I am picking very few upsets this week. Hopefully this changes as we go forward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Another bizarre line here, as Vegas is essentially saying the teams are equal on a neutral field, as the 2.5 is mainly from Carolina being at home. I don't get that at all. The offseason champion is rarely able to carry that forward into the regular season (see: Eagles, Philadelphia v. 2011, Redskins, Washington v. Snyder era). Freeman and that flaccid offense should be able to move the ball against the Panthers defense, but the reverse is just as true. This is far from a tough test of Cam Newton and that Panthers offense either. The Buccaneers defense is just full of holes all over. I can see DeAngelo having a massive game. Same with Steve Smith. This seems to be a case where a narrative (Bucs hated Raheem Morris and love Greg Schiano) is painting over the fact that the Buccaneers just aren't that talented, even with Jackson and Nicks.
Buccaneers 17 Panthers 31 (CAR)
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Hey, I get to pick another underdog. The Cardinals, at home where they are notoriously tough, are about as good as the Seahawks in Russell Wilson's first start. This might be different come December, but for now, the Cardinals are a good team that can win this game. Both defenses are better than perceived (Seattle's is actually close to a top-5 unit, Arizona's is about in that 15-10 range), and Arizona's pass rush should be able to rattle Russell Wilson. The Cardinals main weapon is Larry Fitzgerald, and while Richard Sherman is a good corner, I don't think his size and physicality will bother Fitz. The Cardinals in Week 1 are the better team at home. When they meet again, that probably won't be true anymore.
Seahawks 16 Cardinals 20 (ARZ)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Oh how I will sit back and sip a nice, crisp scotch watching Peyton Manning play actual meaningful football again. It is ironic that his first game back is against the Steelers because had Blair White just caught that 3rd and 5 back in 2010, the Colts would have wen to Pittsburgh. Anyway, this is a great test for Manning early. Sure, he could've started with the Chiefs or Buccaneers, some shoddy team, but he gets the league's best defense. That said, I think he can neutralize that pass rush by doing what Manning always does: get the ball out quickly. I don't think he has a great game, but a good enough one. On the other side, with a healthy Von Miller, the Broncos pass rush should give Ben more problems than it did in the playoff game, and apparently Mike Wallace is on a play count after just recently ending his holdout. All that adds up to what should be a nice beginning to the Manning era.
Steelers 17 Broncos 23 (DEN)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Interesting game. Andy Dalton could have a nice game because his personal terror, Terrell Suggs, is out. AJ Green against Lardarius Webb is a close matchup, but one that Green could easily win. BenJarvus is the perfect type of back to do well against the Ravens defense (like Ced Benson in 2009). The other side of the ball is more precarious. The Bengals need good play from their secondary, but they should be fine against the Ravens running game. I think this line is a little high. The Ravens without Suggs are not that much better than the Bengals. I can see the Ravens winning, but to win by seven points against a good team is not all that easy. Then again, they are playing for the memory of ex-owner Art Modell. I remember what the Ravens did to the Pats after Sean Taylor died.
Bengals 16 Ravens 27 (BAL)
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (-1)
I just realized that I only picked four road teams to win outright (PHI, NE, JAX, ATL), which is almost certainly too few, but I'm not going back and changing picks just because of that. Anyway, chances are there are 1-2 weekends each season where the home teams go 11-5 or 12-4. It just seems odd when it is Week 1, especially if I am right and we all get some "is the old NFL back with home-field dominance" columns. Anyway, this is an interesting game. The teams are pretty even overall, and I can see Philip Rivers doing what he did in Week 17 last year and shred the Raiders, but he doesn't have his whole stable of weapons with Ryan Mathews and Vincent Brown out. On the other side, the only guy possibly missing for the Raiders is Jacoby Ford, and the Raiders can move the ball just as easily against a mediocre Chargers secondary. This could be the weeks big shootout, and hopefully the game is entertaining enough to make me forget that Chris Berman is calling it. Anyway, why change directions now. Let's continue the home-team trend (I will say, I picked two home teams to win but not cover), and take the Raiders to start out 1-0 again.
Chargers 27 Raiders 31 (OAK)
Enjoy the Games!!
This will be short. The NFL started this routine of giving the defending champ the home opener to kick-off the season in 2004. Since then, eight defending champs have won eight games. Only two (the 2008 Giants and 2009 Steelers) didn't cover. I've already gone on record saying the Giants will be really good this season, and I am less high on Dallas. I could be wrong, but even then, that is a trend I will go by until a road team wins this game.
Cowboys 16 Giants 24 (NYG)
Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears (-10)
The Andrew Luck era begins in earnest against my NFC Super Bowl pick, which doesn't bode well for Andrew Luck. Luck looked good in the preseason, but this isn't the preseason and the Bears defense is good. They won't outfox him, but they will play Cover-2 better than anything Luck has ever seen. Peppers against Costanzo should be an interesting test for the young guy, but the Bears should kill the rest of the line. The real issue is can the Colts defense hold the Bears down enough, and I don't think they can. The Colts have not shown their ability to rush the passer, which is critical against the Bears, or stop the run. They haven't defended RBs well all preseason. They have no one to cover Marshall. I like the Bears. This is a high line, but the Bears are a good, good team.
Colts 13 Bears 27 (CHI)
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cleveland Browns
This is a high line for a road team, especially for one coming off of an 8-8 season, but I do expect big things from the Eagles this season. The question is are they this much better than the Browns in Cleveland. What the Eagles have going for them is that Weeden is making his first career start against a really great d-line. The Browns do have some nice pieces on their o-line, but I doubt they can contain the full rush. With Trent Richardson gimpy, I like the Browns chances even less. The Browns do have a good defense and should be able to contain the Eagles from dropping 35+, but I don't think they can score enough points for the Eagles not to cover.
Eagles 27 Browns 14 (PHI)
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-3)
Odd line, as the -3 essentially means that these teams are even, which I think is about right, but the Jets have been able to confound the Bills offense during the Gailey era. Last year, Fitzpatrick had no idea what to do against the Jets in the 1st half. The Jets are still about as good as the Bills, and being at home, I like their chances. The Bills defensive line can give the Jets problems, but other than maybe switching Mario Williams over the RT, the Jets have the horses up front. The game is probably around this 3-4 points margin either way, but I'm not ready to trust the Bills to win a game in New York on opening day.
Bills 20 Jets 24 (NYJ)
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
The Saints are lucky they get their first post-Bounty game at home against a rookie QB. Luckily for Griffin, the Saints aren't a great defense, so I don't think they can confound RGIII that much. The Redskins should have success running the ball no matter who the back is (Evan Royster, I believe), and Griffin should have some time against a pass rush that isn't all that great unless they blitz. The other side of the ball is the bigger issue. The Saints scored 40+ in their last five home games they have played. I think that streak ends, but the Saints still have advantageous matchups all over. The Redskins should be able to get decent pressure against Brees, but decent is not enough really.
Redskins 20 Saints 31 (NO)
New England Patriots (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans
The Patriots are the better team. They are probably the much better team. But there is a reason that this line is only 5.5, especially considering the Patriots are a huge public team. Vegas seems to know something. The Patriots are good, but I don't love this matchup for them. Their o-line is replacing three players (Light, Waters, Kaczur) and their line looked mediocre in the preseason, and Brady isn't all that good with a mediocre line. The tackles looked young and overmatched, and Vollmer's balky back is a little scary. The Titans offense is not great, but I like their matchup with a defense that I still feel is bad. I think the Patriots win. I mean, I'm not that stupid. But I like the Titans to make this a game and make it close.
Patriots 24 Titans 20 (TEN)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Perfect matchup here. Two teams that I think are 5 win teams at best, but one of them will start 1-0. Here we have the two QBs that looked the worst out of the 1st round picks last season in Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert. I think the Jags are better, but Gabbert can be abused by Jared Allen and the Vikings d-line. With Mo-Jo Drew limited, the Jags don't have the passing offense to test the Vikings awful secondary. The other side of the ball places a good Jags defense against an average offense. I really hope Ponder struggles so we can all at least see what the Vikings are with Joe Webb as the full-time starter. I really have no idea what will happen in this game other than the fact that it will be most likely low scoring. I think the Jaguars win. I have no idea why other than their defense is better than the Vikings matchup-adjusted defense.
Jaguars 17 Vikings 13 (JAX)
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (-12)
If there is going to be a blowout this week it is this game. The Dolphins are breaking in a rookie QB with an o-line that is not all that good with no true receivers against the one of the best defenses in the NFL. I can see Tannehill just getting rocked by the Texans multi-faceted pass rush (Barwin, Reed, Watt, Smith, Cushing, Mercilus). Wade Phillips must thank the lord every day that he left that zoo in Dallas and got to coordinate this group of banshees. On the other end, the Dolphins have no one to stop a healthy Andre Johnson or Arian Foster. Their pass rush, apart from Cameron Wake who should be mostly neutralized against Duane Brown, isn't good enough to get to Schaub consistently. I just don't see any way the Dolphins really make this competitive.
Dolphins 10 Texans 31 (HOU - MY LOCK OF THE WEEK)
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-7.5)
I'm surprised this line is not higher. The Rams would probably fare better against a pass-first team like Detroit than a run-first team, but even then, I'm stunned this line is not higher. The Rams pass rush might actually stop the Lions from scoring a ridiculous amount of points, and Cortland Finnegan is good enough that Calvin might not have a great day, but the Lions defense is built to beat the Rams. The Rams o-line is garbage. Especially the interior. Ndamukong Suh should abuse the Rams interior line. The Lions have great matchups on that side of the ball, and even if it isn't as explosive as many of their wins in 2011, it probably will be a comfortable win nonetheless.
Rams 13 Lions 27 (DET)
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs
I feel like a broken record, but I'm leaning towards the favorite again. So far I've only picked two underdogs, and only one to win outright (the Jaguars), and that trend continues here. I just don't think the Chiefs are nearly as good as the rest of society, apparently. Mainly because Matt Cassel just is not that good, and neither is his o-line. The Falcons front should be able to get to Cassel, who struggles badly when pressured. The Falcons o-line doesn't even have to face Tamba Hali. Their offense should be fine, as the Chiefs don't have enough corners to cover everybody the Falcons can throw at them. I doubt Michael Turner goes off, but I doubt he needs to.
Falcons 30 Chiefs 13 (ATL)
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Man, this is a great, great game for Week 1. It is really wasted this early in the season not in primetime. I would love to watch this in Week 15 in 20 degree weather under the lights. But alas, we get it in Week 1. I can see so many things happening in this game, but the one thing I can't see is a blowout either way. The Packers are the better team, but I don't like their matchup against that 49ers defense. The Packers o-line has looked a little shaky, and the 49ers have the best front-7 in the NFL rght now. I can Justin Smith just abuse the Pack, as well as Ray McDonald against an aged Jeff Saturday. Forget about Aldon Smith against Marshall Newhouse. On the other side, the Packers need their 2010 pass rush to return, because the 2011 vintage shouldn't trouble Smith. I actually really like the 49ers in this game, but I can't pick against Rodgers at Lambeau. I can't see him having another off day. This is one of the hardest picks to make this week. I'm going to start going with my head more this season, so I'll do that and take the team with the matchup advantages.
49ers 24 Packers 23 (SF - MY UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK)*
* - I was about to go with the Jaguars over the Vikings as my upset. I am picking very few upsets this week. Hopefully this changes as we go forward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Another bizarre line here, as Vegas is essentially saying the teams are equal on a neutral field, as the 2.5 is mainly from Carolina being at home. I don't get that at all. The offseason champion is rarely able to carry that forward into the regular season (see: Eagles, Philadelphia v. 2011, Redskins, Washington v. Snyder era). Freeman and that flaccid offense should be able to move the ball against the Panthers defense, but the reverse is just as true. This is far from a tough test of Cam Newton and that Panthers offense either. The Buccaneers defense is just full of holes all over. I can see DeAngelo having a massive game. Same with Steve Smith. This seems to be a case where a narrative (Bucs hated Raheem Morris and love Greg Schiano) is painting over the fact that the Buccaneers just aren't that talented, even with Jackson and Nicks.
Buccaneers 17 Panthers 31 (CAR)
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Hey, I get to pick another underdog. The Cardinals, at home where they are notoriously tough, are about as good as the Seahawks in Russell Wilson's first start. This might be different come December, but for now, the Cardinals are a good team that can win this game. Both defenses are better than perceived (Seattle's is actually close to a top-5 unit, Arizona's is about in that 15-10 range), and Arizona's pass rush should be able to rattle Russell Wilson. The Cardinals main weapon is Larry Fitzgerald, and while Richard Sherman is a good corner, I don't think his size and physicality will bother Fitz. The Cardinals in Week 1 are the better team at home. When they meet again, that probably won't be true anymore.
Seahawks 16 Cardinals 20 (ARZ)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Oh how I will sit back and sip a nice, crisp scotch watching Peyton Manning play actual meaningful football again. It is ironic that his first game back is against the Steelers because had Blair White just caught that 3rd and 5 back in 2010, the Colts would have wen to Pittsburgh. Anyway, this is a great test for Manning early. Sure, he could've started with the Chiefs or Buccaneers, some shoddy team, but he gets the league's best defense. That said, I think he can neutralize that pass rush by doing what Manning always does: get the ball out quickly. I don't think he has a great game, but a good enough one. On the other side, with a healthy Von Miller, the Broncos pass rush should give Ben more problems than it did in the playoff game, and apparently Mike Wallace is on a play count after just recently ending his holdout. All that adds up to what should be a nice beginning to the Manning era.
Steelers 17 Broncos 23 (DEN)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Interesting game. Andy Dalton could have a nice game because his personal terror, Terrell Suggs, is out. AJ Green against Lardarius Webb is a close matchup, but one that Green could easily win. BenJarvus is the perfect type of back to do well against the Ravens defense (like Ced Benson in 2009). The other side of the ball is more precarious. The Bengals need good play from their secondary, but they should be fine against the Ravens running game. I think this line is a little high. The Ravens without Suggs are not that much better than the Bengals. I can see the Ravens winning, but to win by seven points against a good team is not all that easy. Then again, they are playing for the memory of ex-owner Art Modell. I remember what the Ravens did to the Pats after Sean Taylor died.
Bengals 16 Ravens 27 (BAL)
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (-1)
I just realized that I only picked four road teams to win outright (PHI, NE, JAX, ATL), which is almost certainly too few, but I'm not going back and changing picks just because of that. Anyway, chances are there are 1-2 weekends each season where the home teams go 11-5 or 12-4. It just seems odd when it is Week 1, especially if I am right and we all get some "is the old NFL back with home-field dominance" columns. Anyway, this is an interesting game. The teams are pretty even overall, and I can see Philip Rivers doing what he did in Week 17 last year and shred the Raiders, but he doesn't have his whole stable of weapons with Ryan Mathews and Vincent Brown out. On the other side, the only guy possibly missing for the Raiders is Jacoby Ford, and the Raiders can move the ball just as easily against a mediocre Chargers secondary. This could be the weeks big shootout, and hopefully the game is entertaining enough to make me forget that Chris Berman is calling it. Anyway, why change directions now. Let's continue the home-team trend (I will say, I picked two home teams to win but not cover), and take the Raiders to start out 1-0 again.
Chargers 27 Raiders 31 (OAK)
Enjoy the Games!!
