Because of the new Thursday Night Football schedule throughout the year, I'll make my quick TNF prediction before that game is played before making the rest on Friday.
Bears (1-0) @ Packers (0-1) (Packers -5)
That line seems high, but probably is due to desperation the Packers should be showing. As I mentioned in my power rankings/week in review post, the Packers have so much to lose here, as an 0-2 start with two home losses against two teams that figure to be in the playoff mix all season long is about as bad a start as a team can have. I don't expect the Packers defense to play all that well. Their coverage seemed even worse than it did last year. The Bears protect Cutler better now, and he should have time to score near 27. The key is the Packers offense, and if it is without Greg Jennings, they might really struggle. Jennings missed their only regular season loss in 2011 against the Chiefs, and without him the offense wasn't explosive enough to beat a good defense in KC. The Bears are a better defense, and usually play the Packers tough anyway, excluding that horror show last Christmas Night (Cutler and Forte both hurt by then). Just like last week with the 49ers, this is a statement game for the Bears, but I'll take desperation over statements between two teams that are pretty evenly matched.
Bears 20 Packers 27 (GB - 5)
AND NOW UPDATED:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) @ New York Giants (0-1) (NYG -7.5)
The Giants better win this game, because if they don't they face the prospect or being 0-2 before heading the Carolina for a Thursday Night tilt. That's generally not a good position to be in. I think the Bucs dominant rush defense was a fluke, but either way, the Giants don't need a good running game to win this one. Josh Freeman wasn't great on Sunday, and the Giants defense should give him and that suspect line a lot of problems. Add in the desperation the Giants now face, and this one is pretty easy.
Buccaneers 13 Giants 30 (NYG -7.5 = MY LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) @ New England Patriots (1-0) (NE -13.5)
This is a large line against a team that rarely gets blown out (Arizona) but I can see the point. I find it weird, though, that Vegas has immediately jumped on the Patriots after making them just 5.5 point favorites in Tennessee last week. Anyway, the Cardinals will provide a much larger test for the Patriots revamped o-line than the Titans proved. The Cards bring in a lot better beef up front with Dockett, Campbell, Branch and Washington behind them. I trust them more with Kolb than Skelton, but I just can't go against the Patriots, despite me thinking this line is about a field goal too high.
Cardinals 17 Patriots 31 (NE -13.5)
Minnesota Vikings (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1) (MIN -1.5)
The Vikings really showed enough in their weird win over the Jaguars that they should be favored on the road? Well, since the Colts showed nothing either, I guess so. The Vikings did make Blaine Gabbert look competent, so I'm expecting a pretty good game from Luck. Other than Jared Allen, that Vikings defense is pretty bare in the pass-rush department, so I'm expecting Luck to get more time as well. The only matchup on the other side I don't like is Peterson. Still, I can't see the Vikings at 2-0, and I think Luck plays well in the first home game of his career.
Vikings 20 Colts 23 (IND +1.5)
New Orleans Saints (0-1) @ Carolina Panthers (0-1) (NO -2.5)
The Saints, who went 13-3 last year, have a realistic chance of going 0-2. The Packers and Saints, who went a combined 28-4 last regular season have a realistic chance of starting 2012 at 0-4. Payton's loss was felt. That offense looked totally off. The Panthers aren't as good defensively, but I can see them draining the clock with a running game that is way better than that performance against Tampa. Overall, I do think the Panthers pull this out. That Saints loss to me was more a sign of a team in disarray than a team just playing bad in Week 1.
Saints 27 Panthers 31 (CAR +2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) @ Buffalo Bills (0-1) (BUF -3)
I'm surprised the Chiefs, who were a trendy preseason pick to win the AFC West, to be underdogs by three against a team that similarly lost badly in Week 1. One of these two 'sleepers' entering 2012 is starting 0-2. I think it will be the Chiefs. Cassel is one of the worst QBs against pressure, and the Chiefs don't have the o-line that the Jets had to combat the Bills pass rush. Tamba Hali is back, but the Bills have enough on offense to get by anyway. I don't think Fitzpatrick will be that bad again, and CJ Spiller will be unleashed in full this season with Fred Jackson out. It may just be that I never bought into teh Chiefs hype, but I think the Bills send them to 0-2, again.
Chiefs 17 Bills 27 (BUF -3)
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) (PHI -2.5)
The last time these two teams met, Donovan McNabb was benched and Ed Reed ran back a pick for 108 yards. I can envision a scenario where history repeats itself with Vick getting benched. After looking bad against Cleveland, it doesn't get any easier. The Eagles o-line needs to play better. If Vick throws even close to 50 times there is no way the Eagles win this game. They need a run game. In fact, I think that is also mostly true for the Ravens. The Eagles pass defense was phenomenal in Week 1. The Ravens can counter with running, and moving Boldin into the slot, where Nnamdi and DRC struggle. Anyway, I think the Ravens have less work to do to change up to win this battle of defense.
Ravens 24 Eagles 17 (BAL +2.5)
Oakland Raiders (0-1) @ Miami Dolphins (0-1) (OAK -2.5)
I'm kind of stunned the Raiders are favored here on the road in a 1 pm game on the East Coast, but it makes sense. Apart from that epic performance by Travis Goethal, the Raiders didn't play all that badly. Denarius Moore should be back, which will help Palmer, who did OK with limited weapons against a decent defense last week. The Raiders defense should do pretty well against a suspect line and a rookie QB, and it isn't like the Dolphins have much of a home-field crowd. The Raiders lost a crucial game in Miami last year big, but since then the Dolphins have become much, much worse, and that is more than enough to push it the other way.
Raiders 24 Dolphins 13 (OAK -2.5)
Cleveland Browns (0-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) (CIN -7)
Honestly, who cares. It is bad against mediocre. The Bengals are better and at home. Brandon Weeden looked awful in Cleveland, and while the Eagles defense is better than Cincinnati's, he has to go on the road for the first time. I think the Browns defense is mostly for real, and keeps it kind of close, but turnovers by the Browns let the Bengals cover anyway.
Browns 13 Bengals 24 (CIN -7)
Houston Texans (1-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) (HOU -7)
I'm riding this Houston thing. That defense was great against Miami, and should punish Blaine Gabbert and swallow up MJD. The Texans are the most complete team in the NFL, and I can't see them dropping games to inferior teams like this, even a divisional game on the road. I don't think we'll see the best from Houston's offense once again because the Jags defense is decent, but they could give a 'C' effort and still win comfortably. I was about to choose this as my lock, but that seems like a cop-out, picking one of the best teams in the league to beat one of the worst by 7 or more.
Texans 24 Jaguars 10 (HOU -7)
Dallas Cowboys (1-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (0-1) (DAL -3)
The last time Tony Romo went to Seattle to play a game... well... it became pretty memorable. You might have heard. He couldn't handle a snap. It was basically a whole NFL Generation ago when this happened. Bill Parcells was a coach, as was Mike Holmgren. The Seahawks were defending NFC Champs. Anyway, six years later and the Cowboys are still very much like what they were then, with Romo capable of playing great or poor, and I think we get one of the poor Romo outings. Seattle is not an easy place to play, and the Seahawks defense is good enough to hold down the Cowboys offense a bit. I don't know if they can get pressure, but they'll cover Kevin Ogletree. The Seahawks offense should do a little better at home. Overall, I don't know why, but I like this game for Seattle.
Cowboys 23 Seahawks 24 (SEA +3 = MY UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Washington Redskins (1-0) @ St. Louis Rams (0-1) (WAS -3)
Let's just skip the long justification. There is a big chance this is wrong, but the Rams can cover the Redskins wideouts, pressure Griffin far more effectively than teh Saints did, and I think, score on that defense at home. Rams get a close win.
Redskins 20 Rams 23 (STL +3)
New York Jets (1-0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) (PIT -5.5)
That line is too high. I was impressed by the Jets in Week 1 on offense. I don't think it is a total fluke. I do think the Steelers are better, but to have that much confidence in them is odd. The Steelers can't afford to lose another game to a potential Wild Card competitor like the Jets. They'll be angry after that loss, and with James Harrison and Ryan Clark back should be better, but I still don't think they are that much better than the Jets. For the Jets, the key will be to keep that pass protection excellence going another week. Mark Sanchez can be good with time against that secondary. I think the Jets keep it close, but the Steelers do pull it out. I hate to pick favorites under 7 to win and not cover, but I feel that is the smart play.
Jets 16 Steelers 20 (NYJ +5.5)
Tennessee Titans (0-1) @ San Diego Chargers (1-0) (SD -6)
I feel like I am stealing. What is it with the Titans being overvalued? First, they were only 5.5 underdogs against the Pats, and now just six on the road in San Diego? This seems really strange. The Titans looked awful on Sunday, and I know New England was a good opponent, but still. The Chargers are the better team, with a QB that could cut them up. The Titans are maybe starting Locker, maybe starting Hasselbeck, and both probably won't have much time. That Chargers pass rush, especially the awoken Shaun Phillips, looked great on Monday Night. Again, I'm a little too confident, if anything, about the Chargers chances here.
Titans 14 Chargers 31 (SD -6)
Detroit Lions (1-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-0) (SF -6.5)
I'm surprised this line is so low as well. The 49ers are playing a night game (historically a benefit for the home team, especially if the two teams are somewhat equal) after beating the preseason Super Bowl favorite on the road against a team that struggled at home to beat the Rams. Add that up and this line should be higher. The 49ers have to block the Lions, but if they do, the should find just as many holes in the secondary as they did against the Packers. The Lions looked sloppy on offense against the Rams, but now face one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. I can't see them putting up enough points. The last time hte 49ers played a prime-time game, they destroyed Pittsburgh 23-3. I doubt the Lions score just three, but I wouldn't want to ever play the 49ers in prime-time.
Lions 17 49ers 27 (SF -6.5)
Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-0) (ATL -3)
If Brent Grimes was still around, I might have picked the Falcons here. Mike Nolan loves to play base nickel, and without Grimes that becomes harder. I see Manning just avoiding Asante (who's always played him well - just like Ty Law), and focus on the slot receiver. I could see the TEs or Stokley having a big day. I don't think the Falcons have enough of a pass rush to really affect Manning. On the other side, the Falcons line is good, and their team is overall, but I can't pick them. Manning has been money ever since 2005 in primetime. He is 25-4 as a starting QB in primetime since then. Two of those losses were to SD (in 2007 - the 6 pick game - and in 2010) and the other two were early in 2008 when he was noticeably off after knee surgery. He's also great as an underdog (happens really rarely). Combine those two and I see another statement made by the Broncos.
Broncos 30 Falcons 24 (DEN +3)
Enjoy the Games!!
Bears (1-0) @ Packers (0-1) (Packers -5)
That line seems high, but probably is due to desperation the Packers should be showing. As I mentioned in my power rankings/week in review post, the Packers have so much to lose here, as an 0-2 start with two home losses against two teams that figure to be in the playoff mix all season long is about as bad a start as a team can have. I don't expect the Packers defense to play all that well. Their coverage seemed even worse than it did last year. The Bears protect Cutler better now, and he should have time to score near 27. The key is the Packers offense, and if it is without Greg Jennings, they might really struggle. Jennings missed their only regular season loss in 2011 against the Chiefs, and without him the offense wasn't explosive enough to beat a good defense in KC. The Bears are a better defense, and usually play the Packers tough anyway, excluding that horror show last Christmas Night (Cutler and Forte both hurt by then). Just like last week with the 49ers, this is a statement game for the Bears, but I'll take desperation over statements between two teams that are pretty evenly matched.
Bears 20 Packers 27 (GB - 5)
AND NOW UPDATED:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) @ New York Giants (0-1) (NYG -7.5)
The Giants better win this game, because if they don't they face the prospect or being 0-2 before heading the Carolina for a Thursday Night tilt. That's generally not a good position to be in. I think the Bucs dominant rush defense was a fluke, but either way, the Giants don't need a good running game to win this one. Josh Freeman wasn't great on Sunday, and the Giants defense should give him and that suspect line a lot of problems. Add in the desperation the Giants now face, and this one is pretty easy.
Buccaneers 13 Giants 30 (NYG -7.5 = MY LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) @ New England Patriots (1-0) (NE -13.5)
This is a large line against a team that rarely gets blown out (Arizona) but I can see the point. I find it weird, though, that Vegas has immediately jumped on the Patriots after making them just 5.5 point favorites in Tennessee last week. Anyway, the Cardinals will provide a much larger test for the Patriots revamped o-line than the Titans proved. The Cards bring in a lot better beef up front with Dockett, Campbell, Branch and Washington behind them. I trust them more with Kolb than Skelton, but I just can't go against the Patriots, despite me thinking this line is about a field goal too high.
Cardinals 17 Patriots 31 (NE -13.5)
Minnesota Vikings (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1) (MIN -1.5)
The Vikings really showed enough in their weird win over the Jaguars that they should be favored on the road? Well, since the Colts showed nothing either, I guess so. The Vikings did make Blaine Gabbert look competent, so I'm expecting a pretty good game from Luck. Other than Jared Allen, that Vikings defense is pretty bare in the pass-rush department, so I'm expecting Luck to get more time as well. The only matchup on the other side I don't like is Peterson. Still, I can't see the Vikings at 2-0, and I think Luck plays well in the first home game of his career.
Vikings 20 Colts 23 (IND +1.5)
New Orleans Saints (0-1) @ Carolina Panthers (0-1) (NO -2.5)
The Saints, who went 13-3 last year, have a realistic chance of going 0-2. The Packers and Saints, who went a combined 28-4 last regular season have a realistic chance of starting 2012 at 0-4. Payton's loss was felt. That offense looked totally off. The Panthers aren't as good defensively, but I can see them draining the clock with a running game that is way better than that performance against Tampa. Overall, I do think the Panthers pull this out. That Saints loss to me was more a sign of a team in disarray than a team just playing bad in Week 1.
Saints 27 Panthers 31 (CAR +2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) @ Buffalo Bills (0-1) (BUF -3)
I'm surprised the Chiefs, who were a trendy preseason pick to win the AFC West, to be underdogs by three against a team that similarly lost badly in Week 1. One of these two 'sleepers' entering 2012 is starting 0-2. I think it will be the Chiefs. Cassel is one of the worst QBs against pressure, and the Chiefs don't have the o-line that the Jets had to combat the Bills pass rush. Tamba Hali is back, but the Bills have enough on offense to get by anyway. I don't think Fitzpatrick will be that bad again, and CJ Spiller will be unleashed in full this season with Fred Jackson out. It may just be that I never bought into teh Chiefs hype, but I think the Bills send them to 0-2, again.
Chiefs 17 Bills 27 (BUF -3)
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) (PHI -2.5)
The last time these two teams met, Donovan McNabb was benched and Ed Reed ran back a pick for 108 yards. I can envision a scenario where history repeats itself with Vick getting benched. After looking bad against Cleveland, it doesn't get any easier. The Eagles o-line needs to play better. If Vick throws even close to 50 times there is no way the Eagles win this game. They need a run game. In fact, I think that is also mostly true for the Ravens. The Eagles pass defense was phenomenal in Week 1. The Ravens can counter with running, and moving Boldin into the slot, where Nnamdi and DRC struggle. Anyway, I think the Ravens have less work to do to change up to win this battle of defense.
Ravens 24 Eagles 17 (BAL +2.5)
Oakland Raiders (0-1) @ Miami Dolphins (0-1) (OAK -2.5)
I'm kind of stunned the Raiders are favored here on the road in a 1 pm game on the East Coast, but it makes sense. Apart from that epic performance by Travis Goethal, the Raiders didn't play all that badly. Denarius Moore should be back, which will help Palmer, who did OK with limited weapons against a decent defense last week. The Raiders defense should do pretty well against a suspect line and a rookie QB, and it isn't like the Dolphins have much of a home-field crowd. The Raiders lost a crucial game in Miami last year big, but since then the Dolphins have become much, much worse, and that is more than enough to push it the other way.
Raiders 24 Dolphins 13 (OAK -2.5)
Cleveland Browns (0-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) (CIN -7)
Honestly, who cares. It is bad against mediocre. The Bengals are better and at home. Brandon Weeden looked awful in Cleveland, and while the Eagles defense is better than Cincinnati's, he has to go on the road for the first time. I think the Browns defense is mostly for real, and keeps it kind of close, but turnovers by the Browns let the Bengals cover anyway.
Browns 13 Bengals 24 (CIN -7)
Houston Texans (1-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) (HOU -7)
I'm riding this Houston thing. That defense was great against Miami, and should punish Blaine Gabbert and swallow up MJD. The Texans are the most complete team in the NFL, and I can't see them dropping games to inferior teams like this, even a divisional game on the road. I don't think we'll see the best from Houston's offense once again because the Jags defense is decent, but they could give a 'C' effort and still win comfortably. I was about to choose this as my lock, but that seems like a cop-out, picking one of the best teams in the league to beat one of the worst by 7 or more.
Texans 24 Jaguars 10 (HOU -7)
Dallas Cowboys (1-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (0-1) (DAL -3)
The last time Tony Romo went to Seattle to play a game... well... it became pretty memorable. You might have heard. He couldn't handle a snap. It was basically a whole NFL Generation ago when this happened. Bill Parcells was a coach, as was Mike Holmgren. The Seahawks were defending NFC Champs. Anyway, six years later and the Cowboys are still very much like what they were then, with Romo capable of playing great or poor, and I think we get one of the poor Romo outings. Seattle is not an easy place to play, and the Seahawks defense is good enough to hold down the Cowboys offense a bit. I don't know if they can get pressure, but they'll cover Kevin Ogletree. The Seahawks offense should do a little better at home. Overall, I don't know why, but I like this game for Seattle.
Cowboys 23 Seahawks 24 (SEA +3 = MY UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Washington Redskins (1-0) @ St. Louis Rams (0-1) (WAS -3)
Let's just skip the long justification. There is a big chance this is wrong, but the Rams can cover the Redskins wideouts, pressure Griffin far more effectively than teh Saints did, and I think, score on that defense at home. Rams get a close win.
Redskins 20 Rams 23 (STL +3)
New York Jets (1-0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) (PIT -5.5)
That line is too high. I was impressed by the Jets in Week 1 on offense. I don't think it is a total fluke. I do think the Steelers are better, but to have that much confidence in them is odd. The Steelers can't afford to lose another game to a potential Wild Card competitor like the Jets. They'll be angry after that loss, and with James Harrison and Ryan Clark back should be better, but I still don't think they are that much better than the Jets. For the Jets, the key will be to keep that pass protection excellence going another week. Mark Sanchez can be good with time against that secondary. I think the Jets keep it close, but the Steelers do pull it out. I hate to pick favorites under 7 to win and not cover, but I feel that is the smart play.
Jets 16 Steelers 20 (NYJ +5.5)
Tennessee Titans (0-1) @ San Diego Chargers (1-0) (SD -6)
I feel like I am stealing. What is it with the Titans being overvalued? First, they were only 5.5 underdogs against the Pats, and now just six on the road in San Diego? This seems really strange. The Titans looked awful on Sunday, and I know New England was a good opponent, but still. The Chargers are the better team, with a QB that could cut them up. The Titans are maybe starting Locker, maybe starting Hasselbeck, and both probably won't have much time. That Chargers pass rush, especially the awoken Shaun Phillips, looked great on Monday Night. Again, I'm a little too confident, if anything, about the Chargers chances here.
Titans 14 Chargers 31 (SD -6)
Detroit Lions (1-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-0) (SF -6.5)
I'm surprised this line is so low as well. The 49ers are playing a night game (historically a benefit for the home team, especially if the two teams are somewhat equal) after beating the preseason Super Bowl favorite on the road against a team that struggled at home to beat the Rams. Add that up and this line should be higher. The 49ers have to block the Lions, but if they do, the should find just as many holes in the secondary as they did against the Packers. The Lions looked sloppy on offense against the Rams, but now face one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. I can't see them putting up enough points. The last time hte 49ers played a prime-time game, they destroyed Pittsburgh 23-3. I doubt the Lions score just three, but I wouldn't want to ever play the 49ers in prime-time.
Lions 17 49ers 27 (SF -6.5)
Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-0) (ATL -3)
If Brent Grimes was still around, I might have picked the Falcons here. Mike Nolan loves to play base nickel, and without Grimes that becomes harder. I see Manning just avoiding Asante (who's always played him well - just like Ty Law), and focus on the slot receiver. I could see the TEs or Stokley having a big day. I don't think the Falcons have enough of a pass rush to really affect Manning. On the other side, the Falcons line is good, and their team is overall, but I can't pick them. Manning has been money ever since 2005 in primetime. He is 25-4 as a starting QB in primetime since then. Two of those losses were to SD (in 2007 - the 6 pick game - and in 2010) and the other two were early in 2008 when he was noticeably off after knee surgery. He's also great as an underdog (happens really rarely). Combine those two and I see another statement made by the Broncos.
Broncos 30 Falcons 24 (DEN +3)
Enjoy the Games!!
