God, I hate the Patriots. Forget the fact that I hate them because they've personally been the team that beat my teams more often than not, but I just hate picking their games ATS. I know that ever since the Patriots became an uber-Public team late in 2007 the Patriots have been really, really bad at covering spreads over 10. Yet, I fell for it, knowing and saying full well that the Cardinals front could give the Patriots problems. I also hate them because they almost pulled the win out of their be-hind anyway. I mean, come on. Arizona deserved that game. The Patriots deserved to lose. They better shore up that o-line and hope that Hernandez's injury isn't all too serious, especially with little communication right now between Brady and Lloyd and Welker being marginalized. Anyway, I also regret not picking the Steelers to cover, but it was a pretty good week, going 10-5-1. Hard to say a 19-12-1 start to the season is all that bad.
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Packers -5 (CORRECT = 1-0)
Giants -7.5 (WRONG = 1-1)
Patriots -13.5 (WRONG = 1-2)
Colts +1.5 (CORRECT = 2-2)
Panthers +2.5 (CORRECT = 3-2)
Bills -3 (CORRECT = 4-2)
Ravens +2.5 (CORRECT = 5-2)
Raiders -2.5 (WRONG = 5-3)
Bengals -7 (PUSH = 5-3-1)
Texans -7 (CORRECT = 6-3-1)
Seahawks +3 (CORRECT = 7-3-1) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Rams +3 (CORRECT = 8-3-1)
Jets +5.5 (WRONG = 8-4-1)
Chargers -6 (CORRECT = 9-4-1) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
49ers -6.5 (CORRECT = 10-4-1)
Broncos +2.5 (WRONG = 10-5-1)
Week 2: 10-5-1 (Lock: 1-0; Upset: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 19-12-1 (2-0; 2-0)
Best Picks: Obviously my wrong picks were wrong, but my correct picks were generally close to being right. I accurately predicted the Colts to beat the Vikings 23-20, and picked the 49ers to beat the Lions 27-17 (instead of 27-19) and the Panthers to beat the Saints 31-27 (instead of 34-27).
Power Rankings
32.) Tennessee Titans (0-2 = 23-72)
Man, that was a predictable beat-down in San Diego. What is wrong with their run-blocking. Sure, some of this is Chris Johnson, but that o-line is just awful at creating running lanes (or the Chargers are really, really good at run defense). The defense got a lot of pressure this week but couldn't cover Dante Rosario for their life. Just a putrid first two weeks, admittedly against two good teams.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2 = 30-53)
For years people used to claim that the AFC South was a weak division. They were wrong. They are now absolutely right. The Jaguars had -2 yards passing in the first half. Blaine Gabbert looking like a competent player didn't last all that long. Even their one TD was on a broken play that probably could have been intercepted. That defense provided some resistance, but it isn't like the Texans really needed to flex too much.
30.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2 = 41-75)
I am ecstatic that so far I am absolutely right about the Chiefs under the Romeo Crennel regime. Matt Cassel puts up nice stats, but once again showed absolutely no pocket presence or awareness of defenders, something that was evident even in his 2008 season in New England. The defense looks completely lost, and this time Tamba Hali was back.
29.) Minnesota Vikings (1-1 = 46-46)
I'll give the Vikings credit for a nice comeback in the 4th quarter (even if it was aided by the Colts going soft) and for Christian Ponder having another nice game (even if it was aided by a bunch of short, underneath throws). Adrian Peterson had a pretty bad game and looked more like a running back coming off of ACL surgery. Also, where was Jared Allen against an awful o-line.
28.) Cleveland Browns (1-1 = 43-51)
The Browns could have easily won thier first game ugly, and here they lost their second game prettily. Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden both had good road debuts. That was the offense that Mike Holmgren was envisioning when he and the Browns selected those two players. This team is still frisky but I don't think they have what it takes to make most of those wins.
27.) Oakland Raiders (0-2 = 27-57)
The first week they lose because of a long-snapper. The second week they lose as they play a 1PM game on the East Coast in 95 degree weather wearing black. I hate this.
26.) Indianapolis Colts (1-1 = 44-61)
The legend begins in Week 2, I guess. Andrew Luck played really good, but more importantly, the o-line didn't look like the worst individual unit in the NFL this time around. The Colts version of the 3-4 was a lot more effective in this game as well. Granted, the Vikings aren't a great challenge, but the Colts have winnable home games (they have one coming up this week). They have to lock those down.
25.) Miami Dolphins (1-1 = 45-43)
Forget Ryan Tannehill, the real star was Reggie Bush. He's quietly actually had a nice career overall, but ever since he came to Miami he actually has been that pure #1 complete back that he never really was in New Orleans. That was a dominant effort by the Dolphins who took advantage of every Raider mistake to win that game.
24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1 = 47-51)
I'll say this, through two weeks I was wrong about the Buccaneers. Their defense still is not that good (as the season goes on that Week 1 run-defense performance will probably look more and more like a fluke) and they were absolutely torched in the secondary. Freeman played average, but made good use of Vincent Jackson, who had a vintage Chargers day (5-124). They blew that game, and the more it happens, the less Schiano's hard-ass line will work.
23.) St. Louis Rams (1-1 = 54-55)
This is a really frisky team. Jeff Fisher teams always play hard, and when they play the upper echelon teams (Packers, 49ers, Bears) they might get beat badly, but the Rams won't get blown out against an average team. Fisher teams just don't. Sam Bradford looked really comfortable. Of course, some part of that has to do with the Redskins two best pass-rushers leaving the game due to injury. Also, Danny Amendola is a really, really good player in his role.
22.) New Orleans Saints (0-2 = 59-76)
The Saints are just not that good right now. Their defense just does not have the personnel to play Spagnuolo's scheme at all. They don't have close to the pass rush talent that his teams in St. Louis and New York did. The offense looks really out-of-synch, and the receivers are not getting open at all for Brees, who has to rely on Graham and Sproles even more. Add it all up, and this is just not a good team right now.
21.) Washington Redskins (1-1 = 68-63)
They blew that game, and it really isn't their fault (other than Josh Morgan and his 15-yard penalty), but the loss of their two best pass rushers, which resulted in Bradford having way too much time and finding Amendola open over and over again. Griffin had another good game and this time without Pierre Garcon, and he showed his running ability more in this game. It was a tough loss, but another sign that the Redskins are going to be a fun, fun team.
20.) Cincinnati Bengals (1-1 = 47-71)
Talk about a fun team. That was a really unexpected shootout in Cincinnati, and Andy Dalton and his top three targets were really up for the task. The Bengals defense, though, looks so much worse than what it was a year ago, and that is a problem going forward, but I think they will correct that side. The offense is set, and should be competitive against most teams.
19.) Buffalo Bills (1-1 = 63-65)
Well, those were the Bills that so many expected to contend for a Wild-Card spot coming into the season. That was the Bills D-Line that they have been building over the past two years. That was the Ryan Fitzpatrick that comes close to earning that ridiculous paycheck. However at the end of the day, those were the real Bills in Week 1 as well. I think the Week 2 Bills are closer to the real Bills, but that Week 1 version could show itself in any game.
18.) Detroit Lions (1-1 = 46-50)
I didn't like that last garbage-time TD drive by the Lions for one reason: I wanted Stafford to end the game with under 150 yards passing. That would've been a great lesson to all those who think that Stafford (and Brady, Brees and Rodgers) would all have seasons that are among the top 10-15 of all time for QBs. The D-Line needs to get more pressure, but the 49ers are a really good team, and they didn't look much worse than the Packers did against them.
17.) Carolina Panthers (1-1 = 44-40)
I can't overrate the Panthers after beating what could end up being a very mediocre Saints team, but it was good to see the Panthers offense in full force. The option runs by Newton. The great split of carries between DeAngelo and Stewart (but screw Tolbert for vulturing a TD). And of course to cap off the formula is a vintage Steve Smith day. All in all, a perfectly good day on offense for the Panthers.
16.) Dallas Cowboys (1-1 = 31-44)
I predicted a Cowboys loss, but even I couldn't imagine such a desolate performance. In the first half they were a little unlucky (bad interception, two major special teams mistakes) but in the 2nd half they seemed completly uninterested in attempting to come back on Seattle
15.) Seattle Seahawks (1-1 = 43-27)
I don't like the Seahawks road uniforms, but their home uniforms look great, and the team played great in them. I don't know if defense is making as much of a comeback as I expected, but the better defenses are really playing well early, and the Seahawks are one of them. Their secondary blanketed Romo's targets, and their pass rush got Romo to make bad throws. On offense, Russell Wilson wasn't great, but Marshawn Lynch was. Great defense and Marshawn is the recipe that works the best for the Seahawks.
14.) New York Jets (1-1 = 58-55)
Never overrate a team after a big win (see: 48-28 over Buffalo) and never underrate a team after a big loss (see: 10-27 against Pittsburgh). That was not an easy environment for the Jets to go to play a game, but I was surprised that the real story was the complete inability of the Jets offense to get anything going against a team missing Harrison and Polamalu. Mark Sanchez started good but finished the game dreadfully. The real test for the Jets starts in two weeks, when they welcome the 49ers and Texans to New York.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (2-0 = 40-34)
I knew that defensive front was good, but that was eye-opening. They are almost like the 49ers, but just slightly worse at most positions. Darnell Dockett was good as always, but Calais Campbell was dominant against the Patriots. Add to that Patrick Peterson playing incredibly well, and the Cardinals shut down the Patriots in a way that I have seen few teams do. Their offense did little, but they had a great drive to extend it to 20-9, the drive that locked down the game.
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0 = 41-39)
Sure, they are 2-0, but both were one point wins under slightly questionable circumstances. Against Cleveland, it was a dropped interception by the Browns right before the game-winning TD pass, and here it was a really soft OPI against Jacoby Jones on what could've been the game-clinching TD for Baltimore. The Eagles offense is humming (950 yards in the first two games) but really needs to limit turnovers going forward.
11.) Chicago Bears (1-1 = 51-44)
It was only one game on the road on a short week, but it looked like Mike Martz never even left Chicago on Thursday Night. Cutler is getting hammered for yelling at his lineman, and that is fine since Cutler played bad himself, but if there was ever a time to yell at your lineman, that was it. I still think long term the Bears are fine. That is most likely the worst their offense will play all season long, and their defense still held a desperate Packers team to 16 true offensive points.
10.) New York Giants (1-1 = 58-58)
Huge, huge win by the Giants. Eli Manning stared an 0-2 start (with both losses at home, to NFC teams) in teh face and responded from his miserable first half (that late pick-6 reminded me a lot of Matt Ryan's in the 2010 Divisional loss to Green Bay) with an incredible second half. That was the Giants offense working at its best, and it took advantage of a defense working at its worst. What a game. What a set of two receivers. But, was it just that the Buccaneers cannot play defense?
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1 = 46-41)
Ranking the top-12 was pretty tough, especially since there are so few 2-0 teams this year. The Steelers looked really impressive defensively against a hot Jets team even when missing two of their best players on that side of the ball. Roethlisbeger had a really good game against a Jets pass rush that constantly got in his face. It was about as dominant an effort the Steelers will put in this season. The scary part is, again, they did it without Troy Polamalu or James Harrison.
8.) New England Patriots (1-1 = 52-33)
I had a pretty long debate about how far to drop the Patriots, but I think this is a fair drop. They just looked bad in that game. Sure, if Stephen Gostkowski just hits a kick they win the game, but they were only in that position because of a fluke fumble by Ryan Williams. They didn't deserve that game. I think their offense has quite a few problems. Mainly their o-line is not adapting well to losing Light, Koppen and Waters. I think they will adjust, but they have some tough defenses coming up.
7.) Denver Broncos (1-1 = 52-46)
So why am I still high on Denver? Mostly blind love of Peyton Manning, but also because they spotted the Falcons four turnovers and the games first 20 points, but still forced the Falcons to convert a clutch third down just to ice the game. Manning is the best QB ever at coming back and I think that much is still true. I actually don't think those interceptions were about his, but more lack of communication and one bad throw (the 2nd pick). His arm looked fine on a laser-post late to Eric Decker that wasn't caught because it was a little too far in front of Decker. The defense played great given the circumstances, adn that is a good sign. These next two home games are huge, though.
6.) Green Bay Packers (1-1 = 45-40)
I don't think the Packers defense ever plays that well again, but for one night it was like watching the Packers from 2010. They didn't have a lot of success against the Bears defense, but that was irrelevant since they owned the Bears offense. Rodgers is really having trouble beating 2-deep man defenses, as he is not the best QB at taking underneath options, and teams are really limiting the explosiveness of the Packers offense. That said, they played two of maybe the five or six best defenses these first two weeks. When the defenses get easier, Rodgers should get better.
5.) San Diego Chargers (2-0 = 60-24)
I'll admit, they have been really impressive this season. I have had a nasty habit of picking teams to do really well the year before they actually do well. For instance, I picked the Giants to make the Super Bowl before the 2010 season, and the White Sox to win the World Series in 2011. The Giants won in 2011, and teh White Sox will likely win the division in 2012. Last year I picked the Chargers to win the Super Bowl, and despite losing Vincent Jackson, the Chargers have been great through two weeks. They will have an interesting test this weekend with Atlanta, a good way to judge their real ability.
4.) Atlanta Falcons (2-0 = 67-45)
Yeah, I really wasn't that impressed by either team Monday Night (or in a way, impressed by both). Where was the high-flying Falcons offense. The Broncos spotted them 4 field goals on their first five drives and the Falcons still had to convert a huge third down just to ice the game. Matt Ryan played mistake-free (which was a lot better than his MNF counterpart) but that didn't make his performance all that great. They have a big test against maybe the other surprising but possibly legitimate 2-0 team coming up.
3.) Baltimore Ravens (1-1 = 67-37)
It is amazing that either the Ravens or Patriots, the two teams that played in the AFC Championship Game last season, will be 1-2 after this game. The Ravens could have easily won that game, but there are problems with that defense. It might just be the Eagles offense is better than any other team at racking up yards, but the Ravens defense played the definition of bend-but-don't-break. They need to cut that out against New England. Also, can Ray Rice get the ball more? He's been on fire in his limited rushes so far.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (2-0 = 57-41)
Right now, the 49ers are a cut above the rest of the NFC. They are playing a game that worked extremely well in 1981 and 1984 for them (of course, Montana was better than Smith) and doing it in a completely different NFL. Beating their defense seems to be something of a herculean task right now. Running on them is nearly impossible, and because Willis and Bowman are so good in pass coverage they don't need to sub to face flex teams like the Patriots. As for that offense, it is the most exact small-ball offense I've seen in some time. I love watching them play, and I can't believe that they might actually be better than they were one year ago.
1.) Houston Texans (2-0 = 57-17)
The Texans were statistically the best team in the NFL when Matt Schaub got hurt in 2011. The Packers, Ravens and 49ers had better records, but the Texans were the most complete team. Nothing has changed. Their offense still isn't running in 5th gear, but they haven't had to through two games. The run game just dominated the Jaguars, but that domination paled in comparison to what they did to the Jaguars offense. JJ Watt continues to play like a monster week after week, and the rest of that defense is as young and talented as any outside of San Francisco. It is amazing how the Texans rebounded from a truly disappointing 2010 (6-10 record after a 4-2 start) by hiring Wade Phillips, drafting JJ Watt, Connor Barwin and Ben Tate, and became the most complete team in the NFL in the process.
Ranking the Week 3 Games
These first three feature five bad teams and one average team. They have bad crowds, bad QBs, bad coaches. Just bad football.
16.) Buffalo Bills (1-1) @ Cleveland Browns (0-2) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Tennessee Titans (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
These next three have decent teams against average teams, and include some exciting offenses. They at least could be higher scoring than that mess above.
13.) St. Louis Rams (1-1) @ Chicago Bears (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) @ Washington Redskins (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
These next three feature three great defenses against three bad teams, but the bad teams are on the road. I probably don't have the guts to go through with this come time for picks, but I think one of these three road favorites will go down.
10.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) @ Oakland Raiders (0-2) (4:25 - CBS)
9.) San Francisco 49ers (2-0) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) New York Jets (1-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
Loser easily becomes the winner of the "Most Surprising 0-3/Disappointing team in teh NFL." If the Saints can't beat a bad defense in their dome, then turn out the lights on the 2012 Saints.
7.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) @ New Orleans Saints (0-2) (1:00 - CBS)
These next two games are kind of similar prime-time games. Both have a preseason NFC favorite that hasn't looked exactly great through two games at home playing a primetime game on the road against a blue-clad team led by a young QB that can run. Of course the Giants/Panthers tilt will probably come close to doubling the point total of the Packers and Seahawks. In that vein, Aaron Rodgers gets his third straight game against a really good defense. I feel bad for all fantasy owners that have Aaron Rodgers (including me).
6.) New York Giants (1-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-1) (TNF)
5.) Green Bay Packers (1-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1) (MNF)
These next two are two really good simultaneous games on FOX. The Eagles and Cardinals pits the league's two most surprising 2-0 teams, both of whom one both of their games in dramatic fashion. The Cardinals defense at home probably will allow a lot fewer than 475 yards (the Eagles average through two games). As for the other, the AFC's most surprising 2-0 team gets a real good opponent in the Falcons...
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-0) (4:05 - FOX)
3.) Atlanta Falcons (2-0) @ San Diego Chargers (2-0) (4:05 - FOX)
These last two not only feature four really good (and in some cases great) teams playing two late afternoon games against each other, but are two games that could have serious playoff implications come January. They are also the four defending AFC Division champions, and other than San Diego and Pittsburgh potentially winning the West or North, there is a chance all four repeat. These two games, the two in Week 14 and Week 15 (Texans @ Pats, Broncos @ Ravens) also will go a long way in deciding what teams get byes come January. Yet the other part is how desperate three of these teams are. We know the loser of the night game will be 1-2, but the Broncos could be as well, and that is bad given their schedule coming up.
2.) Houston Texans (2-0) @ Denver Broncos (1-1) (4:25)
1.) New England Patriots (1-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-1) (SNF)
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Packers -5 (CORRECT = 1-0)
Giants -7.5 (WRONG = 1-1)
Patriots -13.5 (WRONG = 1-2)
Colts +1.5 (CORRECT = 2-2)
Panthers +2.5 (CORRECT = 3-2)
Bills -3 (CORRECT = 4-2)
Ravens +2.5 (CORRECT = 5-2)
Raiders -2.5 (WRONG = 5-3)
Bengals -7 (PUSH = 5-3-1)
Texans -7 (CORRECT = 6-3-1)
Seahawks +3 (CORRECT = 7-3-1) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Rams +3 (CORRECT = 8-3-1)
Jets +5.5 (WRONG = 8-4-1)
Chargers -6 (CORRECT = 9-4-1) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
49ers -6.5 (CORRECT = 10-4-1)
Broncos +2.5 (WRONG = 10-5-1)
Week 2: 10-5-1 (Lock: 1-0; Upset: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 19-12-1 (2-0; 2-0)
Best Picks: Obviously my wrong picks were wrong, but my correct picks were generally close to being right. I accurately predicted the Colts to beat the Vikings 23-20, and picked the 49ers to beat the Lions 27-17 (instead of 27-19) and the Panthers to beat the Saints 31-27 (instead of 34-27).
Power Rankings
32.) Tennessee Titans (0-2 = 23-72)
Man, that was a predictable beat-down in San Diego. What is wrong with their run-blocking. Sure, some of this is Chris Johnson, but that o-line is just awful at creating running lanes (or the Chargers are really, really good at run defense). The defense got a lot of pressure this week but couldn't cover Dante Rosario for their life. Just a putrid first two weeks, admittedly against two good teams.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2 = 30-53)
For years people used to claim that the AFC South was a weak division. They were wrong. They are now absolutely right. The Jaguars had -2 yards passing in the first half. Blaine Gabbert looking like a competent player didn't last all that long. Even their one TD was on a broken play that probably could have been intercepted. That defense provided some resistance, but it isn't like the Texans really needed to flex too much.
30.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2 = 41-75)
I am ecstatic that so far I am absolutely right about the Chiefs under the Romeo Crennel regime. Matt Cassel puts up nice stats, but once again showed absolutely no pocket presence or awareness of defenders, something that was evident even in his 2008 season in New England. The defense looks completely lost, and this time Tamba Hali was back.
29.) Minnesota Vikings (1-1 = 46-46)
I'll give the Vikings credit for a nice comeback in the 4th quarter (even if it was aided by the Colts going soft) and for Christian Ponder having another nice game (even if it was aided by a bunch of short, underneath throws). Adrian Peterson had a pretty bad game and looked more like a running back coming off of ACL surgery. Also, where was Jared Allen against an awful o-line.
28.) Cleveland Browns (1-1 = 43-51)
The Browns could have easily won thier first game ugly, and here they lost their second game prettily. Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden both had good road debuts. That was the offense that Mike Holmgren was envisioning when he and the Browns selected those two players. This team is still frisky but I don't think they have what it takes to make most of those wins.
27.) Oakland Raiders (0-2 = 27-57)
The first week they lose because of a long-snapper. The second week they lose as they play a 1PM game on the East Coast in 95 degree weather wearing black. I hate this.
26.) Indianapolis Colts (1-1 = 44-61)
The legend begins in Week 2, I guess. Andrew Luck played really good, but more importantly, the o-line didn't look like the worst individual unit in the NFL this time around. The Colts version of the 3-4 was a lot more effective in this game as well. Granted, the Vikings aren't a great challenge, but the Colts have winnable home games (they have one coming up this week). They have to lock those down.
25.) Miami Dolphins (1-1 = 45-43)
Forget Ryan Tannehill, the real star was Reggie Bush. He's quietly actually had a nice career overall, but ever since he came to Miami he actually has been that pure #1 complete back that he never really was in New Orleans. That was a dominant effort by the Dolphins who took advantage of every Raider mistake to win that game.
24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1 = 47-51)
I'll say this, through two weeks I was wrong about the Buccaneers. Their defense still is not that good (as the season goes on that Week 1 run-defense performance will probably look more and more like a fluke) and they were absolutely torched in the secondary. Freeman played average, but made good use of Vincent Jackson, who had a vintage Chargers day (5-124). They blew that game, and the more it happens, the less Schiano's hard-ass line will work.
23.) St. Louis Rams (1-1 = 54-55)
This is a really frisky team. Jeff Fisher teams always play hard, and when they play the upper echelon teams (Packers, 49ers, Bears) they might get beat badly, but the Rams won't get blown out against an average team. Fisher teams just don't. Sam Bradford looked really comfortable. Of course, some part of that has to do with the Redskins two best pass-rushers leaving the game due to injury. Also, Danny Amendola is a really, really good player in his role.
22.) New Orleans Saints (0-2 = 59-76)
The Saints are just not that good right now. Their defense just does not have the personnel to play Spagnuolo's scheme at all. They don't have close to the pass rush talent that his teams in St. Louis and New York did. The offense looks really out-of-synch, and the receivers are not getting open at all for Brees, who has to rely on Graham and Sproles even more. Add it all up, and this is just not a good team right now.
21.) Washington Redskins (1-1 = 68-63)
They blew that game, and it really isn't their fault (other than Josh Morgan and his 15-yard penalty), but the loss of their two best pass rushers, which resulted in Bradford having way too much time and finding Amendola open over and over again. Griffin had another good game and this time without Pierre Garcon, and he showed his running ability more in this game. It was a tough loss, but another sign that the Redskins are going to be a fun, fun team.
20.) Cincinnati Bengals (1-1 = 47-71)
Talk about a fun team. That was a really unexpected shootout in Cincinnati, and Andy Dalton and his top three targets were really up for the task. The Bengals defense, though, looks so much worse than what it was a year ago, and that is a problem going forward, but I think they will correct that side. The offense is set, and should be competitive against most teams.
19.) Buffalo Bills (1-1 = 63-65)
Well, those were the Bills that so many expected to contend for a Wild-Card spot coming into the season. That was the Bills D-Line that they have been building over the past two years. That was the Ryan Fitzpatrick that comes close to earning that ridiculous paycheck. However at the end of the day, those were the real Bills in Week 1 as well. I think the Week 2 Bills are closer to the real Bills, but that Week 1 version could show itself in any game.
18.) Detroit Lions (1-1 = 46-50)
I didn't like that last garbage-time TD drive by the Lions for one reason: I wanted Stafford to end the game with under 150 yards passing. That would've been a great lesson to all those who think that Stafford (and Brady, Brees and Rodgers) would all have seasons that are among the top 10-15 of all time for QBs. The D-Line needs to get more pressure, but the 49ers are a really good team, and they didn't look much worse than the Packers did against them.
17.) Carolina Panthers (1-1 = 44-40)
I can't overrate the Panthers after beating what could end up being a very mediocre Saints team, but it was good to see the Panthers offense in full force. The option runs by Newton. The great split of carries between DeAngelo and Stewart (but screw Tolbert for vulturing a TD). And of course to cap off the formula is a vintage Steve Smith day. All in all, a perfectly good day on offense for the Panthers.
16.) Dallas Cowboys (1-1 = 31-44)
I predicted a Cowboys loss, but even I couldn't imagine such a desolate performance. In the first half they were a little unlucky (bad interception, two major special teams mistakes) but in the 2nd half they seemed completly uninterested in attempting to come back on Seattle
15.) Seattle Seahawks (1-1 = 43-27)
I don't like the Seahawks road uniforms, but their home uniforms look great, and the team played great in them. I don't know if defense is making as much of a comeback as I expected, but the better defenses are really playing well early, and the Seahawks are one of them. Their secondary blanketed Romo's targets, and their pass rush got Romo to make bad throws. On offense, Russell Wilson wasn't great, but Marshawn Lynch was. Great defense and Marshawn is the recipe that works the best for the Seahawks.
14.) New York Jets (1-1 = 58-55)
Never overrate a team after a big win (see: 48-28 over Buffalo) and never underrate a team after a big loss (see: 10-27 against Pittsburgh). That was not an easy environment for the Jets to go to play a game, but I was surprised that the real story was the complete inability of the Jets offense to get anything going against a team missing Harrison and Polamalu. Mark Sanchez started good but finished the game dreadfully. The real test for the Jets starts in two weeks, when they welcome the 49ers and Texans to New York.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (2-0 = 40-34)
I knew that defensive front was good, but that was eye-opening. They are almost like the 49ers, but just slightly worse at most positions. Darnell Dockett was good as always, but Calais Campbell was dominant against the Patriots. Add to that Patrick Peterson playing incredibly well, and the Cardinals shut down the Patriots in a way that I have seen few teams do. Their offense did little, but they had a great drive to extend it to 20-9, the drive that locked down the game.
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0 = 41-39)
Sure, they are 2-0, but both were one point wins under slightly questionable circumstances. Against Cleveland, it was a dropped interception by the Browns right before the game-winning TD pass, and here it was a really soft OPI against Jacoby Jones on what could've been the game-clinching TD for Baltimore. The Eagles offense is humming (950 yards in the first two games) but really needs to limit turnovers going forward.
11.) Chicago Bears (1-1 = 51-44)
It was only one game on the road on a short week, but it looked like Mike Martz never even left Chicago on Thursday Night. Cutler is getting hammered for yelling at his lineman, and that is fine since Cutler played bad himself, but if there was ever a time to yell at your lineman, that was it. I still think long term the Bears are fine. That is most likely the worst their offense will play all season long, and their defense still held a desperate Packers team to 16 true offensive points.
10.) New York Giants (1-1 = 58-58)
Huge, huge win by the Giants. Eli Manning stared an 0-2 start (with both losses at home, to NFC teams) in teh face and responded from his miserable first half (that late pick-6 reminded me a lot of Matt Ryan's in the 2010 Divisional loss to Green Bay) with an incredible second half. That was the Giants offense working at its best, and it took advantage of a defense working at its worst. What a game. What a set of two receivers. But, was it just that the Buccaneers cannot play defense?
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1 = 46-41)
Ranking the top-12 was pretty tough, especially since there are so few 2-0 teams this year. The Steelers looked really impressive defensively against a hot Jets team even when missing two of their best players on that side of the ball. Roethlisbeger had a really good game against a Jets pass rush that constantly got in his face. It was about as dominant an effort the Steelers will put in this season. The scary part is, again, they did it without Troy Polamalu or James Harrison.
8.) New England Patriots (1-1 = 52-33)
I had a pretty long debate about how far to drop the Patriots, but I think this is a fair drop. They just looked bad in that game. Sure, if Stephen Gostkowski just hits a kick they win the game, but they were only in that position because of a fluke fumble by Ryan Williams. They didn't deserve that game. I think their offense has quite a few problems. Mainly their o-line is not adapting well to losing Light, Koppen and Waters. I think they will adjust, but they have some tough defenses coming up.
7.) Denver Broncos (1-1 = 52-46)
So why am I still high on Denver? Mostly blind love of Peyton Manning, but also because they spotted the Falcons four turnovers and the games first 20 points, but still forced the Falcons to convert a clutch third down just to ice the game. Manning is the best QB ever at coming back and I think that much is still true. I actually don't think those interceptions were about his, but more lack of communication and one bad throw (the 2nd pick). His arm looked fine on a laser-post late to Eric Decker that wasn't caught because it was a little too far in front of Decker. The defense played great given the circumstances, adn that is a good sign. These next two home games are huge, though.
6.) Green Bay Packers (1-1 = 45-40)
I don't think the Packers defense ever plays that well again, but for one night it was like watching the Packers from 2010. They didn't have a lot of success against the Bears defense, but that was irrelevant since they owned the Bears offense. Rodgers is really having trouble beating 2-deep man defenses, as he is not the best QB at taking underneath options, and teams are really limiting the explosiveness of the Packers offense. That said, they played two of maybe the five or six best defenses these first two weeks. When the defenses get easier, Rodgers should get better.
5.) San Diego Chargers (2-0 = 60-24)
I'll admit, they have been really impressive this season. I have had a nasty habit of picking teams to do really well the year before they actually do well. For instance, I picked the Giants to make the Super Bowl before the 2010 season, and the White Sox to win the World Series in 2011. The Giants won in 2011, and teh White Sox will likely win the division in 2012. Last year I picked the Chargers to win the Super Bowl, and despite losing Vincent Jackson, the Chargers have been great through two weeks. They will have an interesting test this weekend with Atlanta, a good way to judge their real ability.
4.) Atlanta Falcons (2-0 = 67-45)
Yeah, I really wasn't that impressed by either team Monday Night (or in a way, impressed by both). Where was the high-flying Falcons offense. The Broncos spotted them 4 field goals on their first five drives and the Falcons still had to convert a huge third down just to ice the game. Matt Ryan played mistake-free (which was a lot better than his MNF counterpart) but that didn't make his performance all that great. They have a big test against maybe the other surprising but possibly legitimate 2-0 team coming up.
3.) Baltimore Ravens (1-1 = 67-37)
It is amazing that either the Ravens or Patriots, the two teams that played in the AFC Championship Game last season, will be 1-2 after this game. The Ravens could have easily won that game, but there are problems with that defense. It might just be the Eagles offense is better than any other team at racking up yards, but the Ravens defense played the definition of bend-but-don't-break. They need to cut that out against New England. Also, can Ray Rice get the ball more? He's been on fire in his limited rushes so far.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (2-0 = 57-41)
Right now, the 49ers are a cut above the rest of the NFC. They are playing a game that worked extremely well in 1981 and 1984 for them (of course, Montana was better than Smith) and doing it in a completely different NFL. Beating their defense seems to be something of a herculean task right now. Running on them is nearly impossible, and because Willis and Bowman are so good in pass coverage they don't need to sub to face flex teams like the Patriots. As for that offense, it is the most exact small-ball offense I've seen in some time. I love watching them play, and I can't believe that they might actually be better than they were one year ago.
1.) Houston Texans (2-0 = 57-17)
The Texans were statistically the best team in the NFL when Matt Schaub got hurt in 2011. The Packers, Ravens and 49ers had better records, but the Texans were the most complete team. Nothing has changed. Their offense still isn't running in 5th gear, but they haven't had to through two games. The run game just dominated the Jaguars, but that domination paled in comparison to what they did to the Jaguars offense. JJ Watt continues to play like a monster week after week, and the rest of that defense is as young and talented as any outside of San Francisco. It is amazing how the Texans rebounded from a truly disappointing 2010 (6-10 record after a 4-2 start) by hiring Wade Phillips, drafting JJ Watt, Connor Barwin and Ben Tate, and became the most complete team in the NFL in the process.
Ranking the Week 3 Games
These first three feature five bad teams and one average team. They have bad crowds, bad QBs, bad coaches. Just bad football.
16.) Buffalo Bills (1-1) @ Cleveland Browns (0-2) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Tennessee Titans (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
These next three have decent teams against average teams, and include some exciting offenses. They at least could be higher scoring than that mess above.
13.) St. Louis Rams (1-1) @ Chicago Bears (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) @ Washington Redskins (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
These next three feature three great defenses against three bad teams, but the bad teams are on the road. I probably don't have the guts to go through with this come time for picks, but I think one of these three road favorites will go down.
10.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) @ Oakland Raiders (0-2) (4:25 - CBS)
9.) San Francisco 49ers (2-0) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) New York Jets (1-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-1) (1:00 - CBS)
Loser easily becomes the winner of the "Most Surprising 0-3/Disappointing team in teh NFL." If the Saints can't beat a bad defense in their dome, then turn out the lights on the 2012 Saints.
7.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) @ New Orleans Saints (0-2) (1:00 - CBS)
These next two games are kind of similar prime-time games. Both have a preseason NFC favorite that hasn't looked exactly great through two games at home playing a primetime game on the road against a blue-clad team led by a young QB that can run. Of course the Giants/Panthers tilt will probably come close to doubling the point total of the Packers and Seahawks. In that vein, Aaron Rodgers gets his third straight game against a really good defense. I feel bad for all fantasy owners that have Aaron Rodgers (including me).
6.) New York Giants (1-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-1) (TNF)
5.) Green Bay Packers (1-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1) (MNF)
These next two are two really good simultaneous games on FOX. The Eagles and Cardinals pits the league's two most surprising 2-0 teams, both of whom one both of their games in dramatic fashion. The Cardinals defense at home probably will allow a lot fewer than 475 yards (the Eagles average through two games). As for the other, the AFC's most surprising 2-0 team gets a real good opponent in the Falcons...
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-0) (4:05 - FOX)
3.) Atlanta Falcons (2-0) @ San Diego Chargers (2-0) (4:05 - FOX)
These last two not only feature four really good (and in some cases great) teams playing two late afternoon games against each other, but are two games that could have serious playoff implications come January. They are also the four defending AFC Division champions, and other than San Diego and Pittsburgh potentially winning the West or North, there is a chance all four repeat. These two games, the two in Week 14 and Week 15 (Texans @ Pats, Broncos @ Ravens) also will go a long way in deciding what teams get byes come January. Yet the other part is how desperate three of these teams are. We know the loser of the night game will be 1-2, but the Broncos could be as well, and that is bad given their schedule coming up.
2.) Houston Texans (2-0) @ Denver Broncos (1-1) (4:25)
1.) New England Patriots (1-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-1) (SNF)
