AFC East
1.) New England Patriots 12-4 (4) (UNDER 12.5)
The case for the Patriots being better than this is easy, but being a Patriots hater, I'll make the opposite case. The Patriots weren't really that great in 2011. They capitalized on a really easy schedule, but they'll have an easy schedule again. That said, some of their "easier" games in 2012 will be harder just because they won't get a ridiculous run of easy QBs like they did last year. Their skill position guys stayed remarkably healthy in 2011 which is not totally likely. Their o-line has to replace Matt Light with Nate Solder, who looked awful in the preseason, and Brian Waters is still possibly retired. As for the defense, they lost their two best pass rushers. They'll still to Patriots things like play good red zone defense, but overall, to me, this is a slightly worse version of the 2011 AFC Champions, despite adding Brandon Lloyd.
2.) Buffalo Bills 8-8 (OVER 7.5)
The Bills made the moves necessary to compete for the playoffs, but getting there will be tough. They are lucky that the schedule isn't too tough, but the Bills are in a tough division with a QB who we last saw play decidedly average for a majority of the 2011 season. I like Chan Gailey's offense, and I love the move of signing Mario Williams to add to what was already a good d-line, but I just don't trust Ryan Fitzpatrick, nor the injury-prone and untested pieces around him on that offense. If Fitzpatrick is for real, then the Bills are the most likely immediate threat to the Pats to steal the division come 2013, but I'm still skeptical.
3.) New York Jets 7-9 (UNDER 8.5)
I hate going by what I see in the preseason, but the Jets offense just looks terrible. They replaced Braylon Edwards, who was a steady contributor from 2009-2010, with Plaxico Burress, and now have replaced Burress with, who exactly? Their o-line is still very, very good with D'Brick and the beast that is Nick Mangold, but that right side isn't settled. Their offense is just a mess. The defense has a chance to approach the brilliance of the 2009 Jets defense, but that really isn't enough in a tough division. I don't trust Mark Sanchez. He's improved in terms of his decision making, but he really doesn't have NFL quality decision making. I don't think the pickup of Tebow will do anything. If this team is forced to start Tim, they are far too gone anyway, but I doubt Tebow's Wild-Cat package will really be all that effective. Rex Ryan had to answer a lot of questions after 2011, and I think that will seem like a breeze compared to the Jets offseason after 2012.
4.) Miami Dolphins 3-13 (AFC LOCK UNDER 7)
I'm not sure what I think of Ryan Tannehill other than the fact that his wife is incredibly attractive, but I do know what I think of the Dolphins offense in general. Their only above average skill position player seems to be Reggie Bush. They traded away Brandon Marshall for two third-round picks, and now cut two of their receiving hopefuls. Their o-line is average outside of Jake Long, who is nursing an injury. Their defense is still talented, but aging and injury prone. Guys like Karlos Dansby don't stay healthy forever. Also, trading away a viable talent like Vontae Davis is a good pick-up long term, but not a good move at all for the 2012 Dolphins. I think they'll bottom out this year. I like the fact that they have a guy who could be a franchise QB and a coach who I trust, but they have to look past the mess that the 2012 Dolphins will be. The Dolphins, with the hilariously optimistic over/under of 7 is my AFC Lock to go UNDER that total.
AFC North
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 (3) (OVER 10)
I alluded to this in the predictions post, but I really like the Steelers to not take any sort of step back. In fact, only a tough schedule (with the AFC West and NFC East) is keeping me from giving them more wins. The Steelers were the AFC's best defense in 2011 with Woodley and Harrison each missing seven games. They'll almost assuredly play more. Their secondary is still very good in Steelers terms, as is their depth of front. There is much talk of David DeCastro being placed on IR, but even without the highly touted rookie, Ben should have the best o-line he's had since 2005. Antonio Brown is still growing, and that offense is as well. The Steelers will be what the Steelers are, one of the toughest teams in the NFL.
2.) Baltimore Ravens 9-7 (UNDER 10)
I really don't like doing this, but I had to give some teams more losses than I would like. I don't really think it will be loss of Suggs, but the tough schedule that the Steelers have, with out-of-division games against the Broncos (Manning's owned Baltimore) and Patriots. I don't know how much the loss of Suggs will be felt because they have some young players like Danelle Ellerbe and Paul Kruger there to pick up some of the slack, but their pass rush was already tailing off late last season. I like Torrey Smith as a developmental player, but Anquan Boldin really seemed to lose something at times last season. I just think some team has to lose some games from last year, and sadly, I think the Ravens are a somewhat logical choice.
3.) Cincinnati Bengals 7-9 (UNDER 8)
Just like those plucky Lions, the other Large Cat will fall back a bit before what could be some good success later in the decade. Andy Dalton had a good season, but not a great one. That team has good pieces, but that tough schedule gets tougher the further down this division we go (as we replace the Bengals with the Ravens for who this team has to play). I don't really think replacing Cedric Benson with the Law Firm is a good move in any way. Overall, the Bengals are a team in the right direction, but it is tough to really improve on what was a maxed out 9-7 record as the current Bengals stand.
4.) Cleveland Browns 5-11 (PUSH 5)
With the sale of the team, I think Holmgren is probably out the door come next January, and his lasting image will be a 28-year old QB that could be the next Kurt Warner (first real season at 27) or Chris Weinke (first real season at 29). Chances are somewhere in between, and that isn't all too bad. Holmgren at least realized that Colt McCoy was not working. I like Trent Richardson, and I like the pick of Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft, but I doubt it all comes together in any substantial form in Year 1. Long term, though, I like quite a few of the Browns players, but my God, is this division tough for them.
AFC South
1.) Houston Texans 13-3 (1) (OVER 9.5)
I've already explained a lot of why I love the Texans, but here is a quick recap. The Texans, despite losing Mario Williams and Eric Winston, still have some of the best collection of pass rushers in Connor Barwin, Brooks Reed, JJ Watt and Antonio Smith with first round pick Whitney Mercilus, and still have one of best o-lines. Andre Johnson will most likely play more than 7 games this season, and Matt Schaub will probably not get hurt again (although considering it is Matt Schaub, is not a definite bet). The only thing the Texans are really lacking is secondary depth (with their pass rush, this is not that big of a concern) and a proven #2 receiver behind Kevin Walter, but with their strength at nearly every other position and their soft division, the Texans are the most talented team in the AFC, and probably will be healthy enough to make it all work.
2.) Indianapolis Colts 6-10 (OVER 5.5)
The Colts get the distinction of being the worst 2nd place team in the NFL, which should be fun. Andrew Luck has looked really good in the preseason, but it is still just preseason. That said, any real sense of optimism Andrew Luck has given Colts fans, their offensive line and defense have quickly taken away. It will definitely take time to turn into a true 3-4 team under Chuck Pagano, but the worst part of what the Colts have shown is that they are really having a tough time rushing the passer. Their gap control has been awful, but not getting much pressure is really disconcerting. The saddest part is Dwight Freeney doesn't seem to be adjusting well to the 3-4, but on the opposite end of the ledger is that Jerry Hughes seems to be doing something other than, you know, sucking. Thankfully, Andrew Luck has shown enough pocket presence to do something with a piss-awful o-line and turn that schedule into a 2nd place finish.
3.) Tennessee Titans 5-11 (UNDER 7.5)
If Matt Hasselbeck was starting again for the team I would probably pick them closer to 8-8, but I don't trust Jake Locker to turn this team into something better. Their defense might continue to decline with another year away from Fisher/Washburn, and other than Karl Klug, their pass rush isn't close to what it once was. Their offense is more pass-oriented now, but I don't see how that perfectly fits with an inaccurate Jake Locker. The Titans should have capitalized on last year's surprise 9-7 season, because until Locker radically improves, that might be a high point in the Munchak era.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 (OVER 5)
You can basically copy/paste that last paragraph and replace 'Locker' with 'Gabbert' and devalue even Locker's ability about 20 percent. Blaine Gabbert looked lost last season. Sure, he was a rookie and there is room for improvement, but with their o-line problems not fixed, and being dependent on a over-priced Laurent Robinson for support, is probably not the best way to go about business. The Jaguars still have a good talented, defense, but with Mo-Jo Drew just ending his holdout, their only true above average offensive part will probably start out a little rusty. I still like the selection of Mike Mularkey as a head coach, but it will take time to rebuild that offense.
AFC West
1.) Denver Broncos 12-4 (2) (OVER 8.5)
Once again, I am in on the Broncos this year, and mainly because of the o-line. This offensive line is substantially better than anything Manning's had protecting him since at least 2007, and this is the best running game Manning should have since then as well. The defense is an issue, but at times they were very good last year. The defense has two premier, young pass rushers (Manning and two pass rushers, sounds familiar?) and a deep secondary that is quite good at ball skills (Bailey, Tracy Porter, Mike Adams). The team overall is not deep, but it would be a sad form of irony if Manning leaves Indy for another team that has issues staying healthy. The Broncos have a tough schedule, but it isn't like Manning's never faced it before. I could be really wrong here, but I know one thing, if Manning stays healthy, there is almost no chance they don't kill that OVER.
2.) Oakland Raiders 10-6 (5) (OVER 7.5)
The biggest thing for the Raiders entering 2012 is health. Their starters are definitely talented enough to make the playoffs, but the backups are not. The thing is, I have a hard time thinking the Raiders will be more injured than what they were in 2011. The Raiders could have made the playoffs despite losing three of their four best weapons for much of the 2nd half of the season (McFadden, Moore and Ford out, with only Heyward-Bey staying healthy). Carson Palmer also had a pretty good season outside of his disastrous first two games where he clearly wasn't ready to really play. I like him after a whole season with the team with a talented group of weapons. Their defense needs to be more consistent, but I feel like Dennis Allen will be a lot more demanding in that way than Hue Jackson was. They have the talent to win 10 games, but do they have the health?
3.) San Diego Chargers 9-7 (6) (PUSH 9)
The Chargers had a lot of things go wrong for them in both 2010 and 2011 but still nearly made the playoff each year. This time, a lot is going wrong for them before the season with Ryan Mathews mysterious quick-healing injury and Malcolm Floyd's injury concerns, but the team still has Phillip Rivers, who is bound to rebound from his 20 pick semi-disaster of a season. Drew Brees threw 22 picks in 2010, and then had one of the most productive seasons by a QB ever. I don't think Rivers throws for 5,400 yards and 46 TDs, obviously, but he can have the type of year he had in 2009-2010, where he was arguably the best QB in the NFL over those two years. The defense is a little more problematic, as they have hemorrhaged talent from their heyday and replaced it with high draft picks that haven't worked out, but a team doesn't need a great defense to win 9 games.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs 4-12 (UNDER 8)
Yes, I am picking the offseason champions of the world to win just 4 games. Part of it is the tough schedule made tougher by the fact that I think the other three teams in the divsion will do well, but most of it is the fact that I don't understand what all the fuss is about. First of all, we've seen Romeo Crennel as a coach before, and it wasn't exactly all that good. Next, we've seen Matt Cassel, and other than a year with a ridiculously low interception total, that hasn't been that good in KC either. Eric Winston can only do so much. Their defense has major holes in the secondary with the loss of Brandon Carr, and on the d-line with unproven, underperforming talent. Most of all, though, they employ one of the worst coaches in the NFL as well as the worst QB in their division. That is a recipe for a disaster.
Projected Playoff Seeds
1.) Houston Texans 13-3
2.) Denver Broncos 12-4 (beat NE and PIT)
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 (better con. record than NE)
4.) New England Patriots 12-4
5.) Oakland Raiders 10-6
6.) San Diego Chargers 9-7
Wild Card Playoffs
(3) Steelers over (6) Chargers 28-17
The Steelers seem to match up really well with the Chargers over the years, and I see no reason why this would be any different. They can eliminate the Chargers run game, and their zone schemes don't really allow for the deep throws that Rivers loves. On the other side, the Chargers don't have the speed in the secondary to contain the fleet receivers at Ben's disposal.
(5) Raiders over (4) Patriots 27-24
One is allowed to dream, right? The Raiders played New England decently well last season, holding Brady to 16-30 passing, and being the team that actually played the best against Gronk (one catch). The Raiders even piled up 500 yards of offense, but two crucial turnovers doomed them in a 31-19 loss. Well, that Raiders team still had Denarius Moore in a subsidiary role and had Jason Campbell as the QB. Overall, though, I am allowed to dream, right?
Divisional Playoffs
(1) Texans over (5) Raiders 31-17
I'm not going to dream that far. The Raiders have always had problems stopping the run, and the Texans have the best run game in the NFL. No one on the Raiders can really stop Andre Johnson. On the other side of the ball, I doubt the Raiders o-line could handle the Texans front. All in all, a classic #1 seed blowout.
(2) Broncos over (3) Steelers 24-20
Manning finally gets another crack at the Steelers in the playoffs. Despite these two teams being the two most successful AFC teams outside of the Pats since 2000, they have had oddly few meetings. This could be a great game, and I expect Manning to just pull it off. The Steelers pass rush shouldn't come close to having the success against him that it had in the 2005 Divisional, and on the other side, I can see the Broncos giving Pittsburgh a tough time in pass rush.
AFC Title Game
(1) Texans over (2) Broncos 30-24
Just like Favre's dream season in 2009, Manning's ends one game away from teh Super Bowl. I just think this is the Texans time. Their defense is loaded. Their offense has great players at the skill positions and a they deserve to be healthy and good in teh same season for once. I can't see them dropping this game, although Manning is a lifetime 8-1 in that stadium. Definitely note that if this game does come to pass, I will almost definitely talk myself into picking the Broncos.
Super Bowl XLVII
(A1) Texans over (N2) Bears 27-20
The Texans win because they are the most complete team in the NFL right now. They can run and pass at high efficiency. They can defend the run and the pass with a cadre of talented, young defenders in that front-seven and a back-end that is much, much better than it used to be. The Bears have talent, but it doesn't match up well. The Texans have the front to limit Forte, and the o-line to keep Peppers at bay. The Texans win their first Super Bowl in a close game.
1.) New England Patriots 12-4 (4) (UNDER 12.5)
The case for the Patriots being better than this is easy, but being a Patriots hater, I'll make the opposite case. The Patriots weren't really that great in 2011. They capitalized on a really easy schedule, but they'll have an easy schedule again. That said, some of their "easier" games in 2012 will be harder just because they won't get a ridiculous run of easy QBs like they did last year. Their skill position guys stayed remarkably healthy in 2011 which is not totally likely. Their o-line has to replace Matt Light with Nate Solder, who looked awful in the preseason, and Brian Waters is still possibly retired. As for the defense, they lost their two best pass rushers. They'll still to Patriots things like play good red zone defense, but overall, to me, this is a slightly worse version of the 2011 AFC Champions, despite adding Brandon Lloyd.
2.) Buffalo Bills 8-8 (OVER 7.5)
The Bills made the moves necessary to compete for the playoffs, but getting there will be tough. They are lucky that the schedule isn't too tough, but the Bills are in a tough division with a QB who we last saw play decidedly average for a majority of the 2011 season. I like Chan Gailey's offense, and I love the move of signing Mario Williams to add to what was already a good d-line, but I just don't trust Ryan Fitzpatrick, nor the injury-prone and untested pieces around him on that offense. If Fitzpatrick is for real, then the Bills are the most likely immediate threat to the Pats to steal the division come 2013, but I'm still skeptical.
3.) New York Jets 7-9 (UNDER 8.5)
I hate going by what I see in the preseason, but the Jets offense just looks terrible. They replaced Braylon Edwards, who was a steady contributor from 2009-2010, with Plaxico Burress, and now have replaced Burress with, who exactly? Their o-line is still very, very good with D'Brick and the beast that is Nick Mangold, but that right side isn't settled. Their offense is just a mess. The defense has a chance to approach the brilliance of the 2009 Jets defense, but that really isn't enough in a tough division. I don't trust Mark Sanchez. He's improved in terms of his decision making, but he really doesn't have NFL quality decision making. I don't think the pickup of Tebow will do anything. If this team is forced to start Tim, they are far too gone anyway, but I doubt Tebow's Wild-Cat package will really be all that effective. Rex Ryan had to answer a lot of questions after 2011, and I think that will seem like a breeze compared to the Jets offseason after 2012.
4.) Miami Dolphins 3-13 (AFC LOCK UNDER 7)
I'm not sure what I think of Ryan Tannehill other than the fact that his wife is incredibly attractive, but I do know what I think of the Dolphins offense in general. Their only above average skill position player seems to be Reggie Bush. They traded away Brandon Marshall for two third-round picks, and now cut two of their receiving hopefuls. Their o-line is average outside of Jake Long, who is nursing an injury. Their defense is still talented, but aging and injury prone. Guys like Karlos Dansby don't stay healthy forever. Also, trading away a viable talent like Vontae Davis is a good pick-up long term, but not a good move at all for the 2012 Dolphins. I think they'll bottom out this year. I like the fact that they have a guy who could be a franchise QB and a coach who I trust, but they have to look past the mess that the 2012 Dolphins will be. The Dolphins, with the hilariously optimistic over/under of 7 is my AFC Lock to go UNDER that total.
AFC North
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 (3) (OVER 10)
I alluded to this in the predictions post, but I really like the Steelers to not take any sort of step back. In fact, only a tough schedule (with the AFC West and NFC East) is keeping me from giving them more wins. The Steelers were the AFC's best defense in 2011 with Woodley and Harrison each missing seven games. They'll almost assuredly play more. Their secondary is still very good in Steelers terms, as is their depth of front. There is much talk of David DeCastro being placed on IR, but even without the highly touted rookie, Ben should have the best o-line he's had since 2005. Antonio Brown is still growing, and that offense is as well. The Steelers will be what the Steelers are, one of the toughest teams in the NFL.
2.) Baltimore Ravens 9-7 (UNDER 10)
I really don't like doing this, but I had to give some teams more losses than I would like. I don't really think it will be loss of Suggs, but the tough schedule that the Steelers have, with out-of-division games against the Broncos (Manning's owned Baltimore) and Patriots. I don't know how much the loss of Suggs will be felt because they have some young players like Danelle Ellerbe and Paul Kruger there to pick up some of the slack, but their pass rush was already tailing off late last season. I like Torrey Smith as a developmental player, but Anquan Boldin really seemed to lose something at times last season. I just think some team has to lose some games from last year, and sadly, I think the Ravens are a somewhat logical choice.
3.) Cincinnati Bengals 7-9 (UNDER 8)
Just like those plucky Lions, the other Large Cat will fall back a bit before what could be some good success later in the decade. Andy Dalton had a good season, but not a great one. That team has good pieces, but that tough schedule gets tougher the further down this division we go (as we replace the Bengals with the Ravens for who this team has to play). I don't really think replacing Cedric Benson with the Law Firm is a good move in any way. Overall, the Bengals are a team in the right direction, but it is tough to really improve on what was a maxed out 9-7 record as the current Bengals stand.
4.) Cleveland Browns 5-11 (PUSH 5)
With the sale of the team, I think Holmgren is probably out the door come next January, and his lasting image will be a 28-year old QB that could be the next Kurt Warner (first real season at 27) or Chris Weinke (first real season at 29). Chances are somewhere in between, and that isn't all too bad. Holmgren at least realized that Colt McCoy was not working. I like Trent Richardson, and I like the pick of Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft, but I doubt it all comes together in any substantial form in Year 1. Long term, though, I like quite a few of the Browns players, but my God, is this division tough for them.
AFC South
1.) Houston Texans 13-3 (1) (OVER 9.5)
I've already explained a lot of why I love the Texans, but here is a quick recap. The Texans, despite losing Mario Williams and Eric Winston, still have some of the best collection of pass rushers in Connor Barwin, Brooks Reed, JJ Watt and Antonio Smith with first round pick Whitney Mercilus, and still have one of best o-lines. Andre Johnson will most likely play more than 7 games this season, and Matt Schaub will probably not get hurt again (although considering it is Matt Schaub, is not a definite bet). The only thing the Texans are really lacking is secondary depth (with their pass rush, this is not that big of a concern) and a proven #2 receiver behind Kevin Walter, but with their strength at nearly every other position and their soft division, the Texans are the most talented team in the AFC, and probably will be healthy enough to make it all work.
2.) Indianapolis Colts 6-10 (OVER 5.5)
The Colts get the distinction of being the worst 2nd place team in the NFL, which should be fun. Andrew Luck has looked really good in the preseason, but it is still just preseason. That said, any real sense of optimism Andrew Luck has given Colts fans, their offensive line and defense have quickly taken away. It will definitely take time to turn into a true 3-4 team under Chuck Pagano, but the worst part of what the Colts have shown is that they are really having a tough time rushing the passer. Their gap control has been awful, but not getting much pressure is really disconcerting. The saddest part is Dwight Freeney doesn't seem to be adjusting well to the 3-4, but on the opposite end of the ledger is that Jerry Hughes seems to be doing something other than, you know, sucking. Thankfully, Andrew Luck has shown enough pocket presence to do something with a piss-awful o-line and turn that schedule into a 2nd place finish.
3.) Tennessee Titans 5-11 (UNDER 7.5)
If Matt Hasselbeck was starting again for the team I would probably pick them closer to 8-8, but I don't trust Jake Locker to turn this team into something better. Their defense might continue to decline with another year away from Fisher/Washburn, and other than Karl Klug, their pass rush isn't close to what it once was. Their offense is more pass-oriented now, but I don't see how that perfectly fits with an inaccurate Jake Locker. The Titans should have capitalized on last year's surprise 9-7 season, because until Locker radically improves, that might be a high point in the Munchak era.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 (OVER 5)
You can basically copy/paste that last paragraph and replace 'Locker' with 'Gabbert' and devalue even Locker's ability about 20 percent. Blaine Gabbert looked lost last season. Sure, he was a rookie and there is room for improvement, but with their o-line problems not fixed, and being dependent on a over-priced Laurent Robinson for support, is probably not the best way to go about business. The Jaguars still have a good talented, defense, but with Mo-Jo Drew just ending his holdout, their only true above average offensive part will probably start out a little rusty. I still like the selection of Mike Mularkey as a head coach, but it will take time to rebuild that offense.
AFC West
1.) Denver Broncos 12-4 (2) (OVER 8.5)
Once again, I am in on the Broncos this year, and mainly because of the o-line. This offensive line is substantially better than anything Manning's had protecting him since at least 2007, and this is the best running game Manning should have since then as well. The defense is an issue, but at times they were very good last year. The defense has two premier, young pass rushers (Manning and two pass rushers, sounds familiar?) and a deep secondary that is quite good at ball skills (Bailey, Tracy Porter, Mike Adams). The team overall is not deep, but it would be a sad form of irony if Manning leaves Indy for another team that has issues staying healthy. The Broncos have a tough schedule, but it isn't like Manning's never faced it before. I could be really wrong here, but I know one thing, if Manning stays healthy, there is almost no chance they don't kill that OVER.
2.) Oakland Raiders 10-6 (5) (OVER 7.5)
The biggest thing for the Raiders entering 2012 is health. Their starters are definitely talented enough to make the playoffs, but the backups are not. The thing is, I have a hard time thinking the Raiders will be more injured than what they were in 2011. The Raiders could have made the playoffs despite losing three of their four best weapons for much of the 2nd half of the season (McFadden, Moore and Ford out, with only Heyward-Bey staying healthy). Carson Palmer also had a pretty good season outside of his disastrous first two games where he clearly wasn't ready to really play. I like him after a whole season with the team with a talented group of weapons. Their defense needs to be more consistent, but I feel like Dennis Allen will be a lot more demanding in that way than Hue Jackson was. They have the talent to win 10 games, but do they have the health?
3.) San Diego Chargers 9-7 (6) (PUSH 9)
The Chargers had a lot of things go wrong for them in both 2010 and 2011 but still nearly made the playoff each year. This time, a lot is going wrong for them before the season with Ryan Mathews mysterious quick-healing injury and Malcolm Floyd's injury concerns, but the team still has Phillip Rivers, who is bound to rebound from his 20 pick semi-disaster of a season. Drew Brees threw 22 picks in 2010, and then had one of the most productive seasons by a QB ever. I don't think Rivers throws for 5,400 yards and 46 TDs, obviously, but he can have the type of year he had in 2009-2010, where he was arguably the best QB in the NFL over those two years. The defense is a little more problematic, as they have hemorrhaged talent from their heyday and replaced it with high draft picks that haven't worked out, but a team doesn't need a great defense to win 9 games.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs 4-12 (UNDER 8)
Yes, I am picking the offseason champions of the world to win just 4 games. Part of it is the tough schedule made tougher by the fact that I think the other three teams in the divsion will do well, but most of it is the fact that I don't understand what all the fuss is about. First of all, we've seen Romeo Crennel as a coach before, and it wasn't exactly all that good. Next, we've seen Matt Cassel, and other than a year with a ridiculously low interception total, that hasn't been that good in KC either. Eric Winston can only do so much. Their defense has major holes in the secondary with the loss of Brandon Carr, and on the d-line with unproven, underperforming talent. Most of all, though, they employ one of the worst coaches in the NFL as well as the worst QB in their division. That is a recipe for a disaster.
Projected Playoff Seeds
1.) Houston Texans 13-3
2.) Denver Broncos 12-4 (beat NE and PIT)
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 (better con. record than NE)
4.) New England Patriots 12-4
5.) Oakland Raiders 10-6
6.) San Diego Chargers 9-7
Wild Card Playoffs
(3) Steelers over (6) Chargers 28-17
The Steelers seem to match up really well with the Chargers over the years, and I see no reason why this would be any different. They can eliminate the Chargers run game, and their zone schemes don't really allow for the deep throws that Rivers loves. On the other side, the Chargers don't have the speed in the secondary to contain the fleet receivers at Ben's disposal.
(5) Raiders over (4) Patriots 27-24
One is allowed to dream, right? The Raiders played New England decently well last season, holding Brady to 16-30 passing, and being the team that actually played the best against Gronk (one catch). The Raiders even piled up 500 yards of offense, but two crucial turnovers doomed them in a 31-19 loss. Well, that Raiders team still had Denarius Moore in a subsidiary role and had Jason Campbell as the QB. Overall, though, I am allowed to dream, right?
Divisional Playoffs
(1) Texans over (5) Raiders 31-17
I'm not going to dream that far. The Raiders have always had problems stopping the run, and the Texans have the best run game in the NFL. No one on the Raiders can really stop Andre Johnson. On the other side of the ball, I doubt the Raiders o-line could handle the Texans front. All in all, a classic #1 seed blowout.
(2) Broncos over (3) Steelers 24-20
Manning finally gets another crack at the Steelers in the playoffs. Despite these two teams being the two most successful AFC teams outside of the Pats since 2000, they have had oddly few meetings. This could be a great game, and I expect Manning to just pull it off. The Steelers pass rush shouldn't come close to having the success against him that it had in the 2005 Divisional, and on the other side, I can see the Broncos giving Pittsburgh a tough time in pass rush.
AFC Title Game
(1) Texans over (2) Broncos 30-24
Just like Favre's dream season in 2009, Manning's ends one game away from teh Super Bowl. I just think this is the Texans time. Their defense is loaded. Their offense has great players at the skill positions and a they deserve to be healthy and good in teh same season for once. I can't see them dropping this game, although Manning is a lifetime 8-1 in that stadium. Definitely note that if this game does come to pass, I will almost definitely talk myself into picking the Broncos.
Super Bowl XLVII
(A1) Texans over (N2) Bears 27-20
The Texans win because they are the most complete team in the NFL right now. They can run and pass at high efficiency. They can defend the run and the pass with a cadre of talented, young defenders in that front-seven and a back-end that is much, much better than it used to be. The Bears have talent, but it doesn't match up well. The Texans have the front to limit Forte, and the o-line to keep Peppers at bay. The Texans win their first Super Bowl in a close game.
