Looking Back at Last Week's Bad, Bad Picks
Panthers -2.5 over Giants (WRONG = 0-1)
Bears -7 over Rams (CORRECT = 1-1)
Buccaneers +8 over Cowboys (CORRECT = 2-1)
49ers -6.5 over Vikings (WRONG = 2-2)
Lions -3.5 over Titans (WRONG = 2-3) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Bengals +3 over Redskins (CORRECT = 3-3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Jets -2.5 over Dolphins (CORRECT = 4-3)
Bills -3 over Browns (CORRECT = 5-3)
Chiefs +8.5 over Saints (CORRECT = 6-3)
Colts -3 over Jaguars (WRONG = 6-4)
Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles (CORRECT = 7-4)
Atlanta +3 over Chargers (CORRECT = 8-4)
Broncos +3 over Texans (WRONG = 8-5)
Steelers -4 over Raiders (WRONG = 8-6)
Ravens -2.5 over Patriots (WRONG = 8-7)
Packers -3 over Seahawks (WRONG = 8-8)
Week 3: 8-8 (Lock: 0-1; Upset: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 27-20-1 (2-1; 3-0)
Best Picks: Nothing too accurate this week. The closest was I picked the Bears to beat the Rams 23-13 (they won 23-6) and the Bills to beat the Browns 23-16 (they won 24-14).
Power Rankings
32.) Cleveland Browns (0-3 = 57-75)
Hey, welcome back, boys. The Browns really should have won their Week 1 game and were very competitive against the Bengals in Week 2, but they looked desolate and slow in Week 3 against the Bills. Weeden has been decent after an awful Week 1, but this team might be in position to go out and draft Matt Barkley anyway.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 = 52-70)
Hey, nice win on a fluke 80-yard TD. That was a fun way to win. The Jaguars are now 3-2 all time in the Luke. One win we can right off since it was last year, but the other two were both ridiculous. Scobee hit a 56 yard field goal at the gun to win in 2008, and then there was Cecil Shorts. Really? Cecil Shorts??
30.) St. Louis Rams (1-2 = 60-78)
That was as predictable a game as I've seen. The Bears defense is so good, and this offense so inconsistent that it was like watching a movie that you know the ending of. The Rams are too bad to beat good teams, but they'll be competitive against any bad to mediocre team they face. Sadly, though, their division no longer really contains any of those outside of maybe Seattle.
29.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 = 68-99)
Congrats for the great comeback over the Saints, but that game says more about the Saints in total disarray (yet, I still have them ranked higher than I should) than it doesa bout the Chiefs. Good to see Jamaal Charles running well again. That is nice. Matt Cassel still looks extremely skittish. The defense really played well especially Justin Houston. I don't think the Chiefs are that good, but that was one nice shining moment.
28.) Tennessee Titans (1-2 = 67-113)
Last week I called them the worst team in the league. Well, they went out and won a game in the most unrepeatable way ever. Sure, they were unlucky to have the Lions catch a hail mary, but they also returned a kick-off for a TD, pulled off the Music City Miracle again, and then got a long fumble return TD. Add that to Schwartz and Shaun Hill botching the OT. My God, that was exciting, but totally, unbelievably, unrepeatable.
27.) Indianapolis Colts (1-2 = 61-83)
Cecil Shorts........... This is not a good Colts team. They might win 5 games. They might still be the second best team in a bad, bad AFC South. But that loss really, really hurt. We basically pulled off what the Jets did to us in the Wild Card game in 2010 (win 17-16), but we left 40 seconds on the clock. Why did we not just put 10 guys in teh box and force Blaine Gabbert to complete more than 10 passes? Really, really frustrating.
26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2 = 60-67)
Josh Freeman had, what, 60 yards passing until that final backdoor-cover field goal drive (thanks for that, Bucs)? That offense is so up and down. The defensive pass rush has improved a ton, though. I'm really happy that Gerald McCoy is finally healthy and really producing. He's always going to be in the shadow of Ndamukong Suh, but he's making his own mark right now.
25.) Carolina Panthers (1-2 = 52-79)
Wow, was that just an awful performance. Ron Rivera is a good defensive coach. I've seen this. But really, how many times does Ramses Barden have to run the same deep in before you figure out a way to stop it. The Panthers offense was bad too, but I think they went away from the run a little too quickly. Cam was bad, but let's remember that he is still a 2nd year player. There was no way he was going to live up to what he was as a rookie. It is more important to see how he responds to that type of game.
24.) Miami Dolphins (1-2 = 65-66)
That was just an ugly, ugly game in every sense. Plus, I'm really angry that it went on so long that I missed the first quarter of the Broncos/Texans game (not that it would've been that fun to watch anyway). Ryan Tannehill is just not good enough right now as a rookie to beat a good defense. It will be interesting to see him next week in Arizona, and by interesting, I mean in a disaster-viewing sense.
23.) New Orleans Saints (0-3 = 83-102)
Again, I have no idea why I'm only dropping the Saints one spot after they blew a 24-6 second half lead at home to a bad team. What is wrong with Drew Brees? This really puts Brees's ridiculous numbers into perspective. The three years (including this one, so far) that he's had a mediocre to bad run game he's thrown 47 interceptions in the 35 games he played. I don't think there is another great QB who is so dependent on having a good run game. We've seen both Mannings, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers and Roethlisberger have fantastic years with bad run games (other than Brady, every QB mentioned has reached had a 12+ win season with one of the worst run games in the NFL). Brees hasn't and maybe can't.
22.) Oakland Raiders (1-2 = 61-88)
That was a wild win, but for Peyton Manning's sake, can that pass defense show up next week. The Raiders two seasons ago had one of the best d-lines in the NFL, but this idea of moving LaMarr Houston outside and getting rid of Trever Scott has really hurt that part. The corners are a mess (I have no idea why McKenzie cut Chekwa and Van Dyke, who both had decent rookie seasons last year). It was nice to see the return of McFadden.
21.) Detroit Lions (1-2 = 87-94)
I think Shaun Hill's competence in Stafford's place says two things: 1.) Calvin Johnson is really good at making QBs look good, and 2.) Shaun Hill is one of the better backups in the NFL. I don't know how much that dropoff is, but it isn't good. The OT situation was totally screwed up, but it was a sort of poetic justice as they didn't deserve to go to OT in the first place, unlike the last deflected hail mary by the Jags in 2009 that eventually cost the Texans a wild-card berth.
20.) Washington Redskins (1-2 = 99-101)
Through three games RGIII has a QB Rating over 100, and the Redskins are the highest scoring team in the NFL. That said, without Carriker and Orakpo, that defense is just not good at all. They'll lose a lot of high scoring games, but seeing RGIII fight through adversity with that awful defense will be fun to watch.
19.) Minnesota Vikings (2-1 = 70-59)
That was a really impressive performance, and I'm starting to come around on Christian Ponder, but I don't buy the Vikings long-term. Peterson is still not at full gear and probably won't be until 2013. They need more receivers outside of Harvin. Their defense has really improved from 2011 though, and a lot of that has to do with change and upgrades in the secondary.
18.) New York Jets (2-1 = 81-75)
Man, if Revis didn't go down this could have been a playoff team. I guess they still could be in a wild AFC, but replacing him is just so hard to do. Cromartie is a really good #2 corner, but as a #1 he's just average in that capacity. It is time for Kyle Wilson to really step up after a disappointing two seasons. Also, Sanchez has pretty much shown the world that his Week 1 performance was a fluke. Two straight sub-50% completion percentage days is not exactly what a franchise QB does.
17.) Buffalo Bills (2-1 = 87-79)
Another good performance in beating a worse team. The Bills have an easy enough schedule where that could get them a playoff spot in a weak AFC. Losing Spiller hurts, but if that is replaced by getting Fred Jackson back they should be fine. The Bills defensive line is still underperforming considering the hype and talent they have at that area. It would be great if they breakout next week against the Patriots, because they would need it to beat them.
16.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-1 = 47-66)
My God, did the Eagles look woefully unprepared for that game. Kevin Kolb, however, looked really prepared for that Eagles defense. Michael Vick's pocket awareness is just awful right now. What was also surprising is that the Eagles defense could not generate much of a pass rush against a medoicre o-line. That is not an easy place to play, but the Eagles really didn't even show up. Just a bad performance from a talented team that is really lucky to even be 2-1.
15.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1 = 85-102)
This Bengals offense is really interesting to watch. Andy Dalton has really improved since last season. He's got weapons outside of just AJ Green in Hawkins and that Binns guy, but Dalton just seems more imposing and calm in the pocket this year. That said, what is up with the Bengals defense right now. That defense was so consistent last season but is just falling apart right now. I have to think sooner or later they will right the ship.
14.) Dallas Cowboys (2-1 = 47-54)
Their defense is really good. I didn't buy into Rob Ryan, and I still don't know if I do, but so far he has that defense playing extremely well. Brandon Carr has been a really good addition so far. That said, the offense is almost perfecting my theory about the Cowboys inability to turn yards into points. That really shouldn't have been a game, but they couldn't put the Bucs away.
13.) San Diego Chargers (2-1 = 63-51)
Man, what happened there? I'm not surprised the Chargers couldn't really stop the Falcons offense, but what was up with Philip Rivers? His receivers couldn't get open, he didn't have any rhythm to his game at all. Just a bizarre performance all around. The Chargers should still be a competitor for the division or a Wild Card spot, but that was the Chargers many thought they were.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (2-1 = 57-39)
Lost in the madness of last night was an incredible performance by the Seahawks defense. Sure, they didn't get a sack in the second half but a lot of that was due to the Packers going to more max-protect than anything else. Their defense is just dominant in that building. The NFC West will be really, really interesting. The offense though has major problems. I just don't think Russell Wilson is all that good, but it may not matter for the Seahawks to win 8-9 games.
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2 = 77-75)
They really need Polamalu and Harrison back. The Steelers defense was a mess when Polamalu missed time in 2009 and is no different now. It's sad because Ben Roethlisberger was absolutely awesome on Sunday. Yes, the Raiders defense right now is porous, but he just scorched them. The Steelers won't go away, especially if Troy and Harrison come back soon, but they are really seemingly an offense-first team right now.
10.) Green Bay Packers (1-2 = 57-54)
What is wrong with the Packers offense. It's like the team has done a literal 180 from last season. The offense is now average while the defense is good. Anyway, back to that offense. Here are their last four games: 20 points against the Giants, including two TDs on drives that should have ended, 22 points against the 49ers with seven off a punt-TD, 23 against the Bears with seven off of a fake-field goal TD, and then 12 in Seattle. Defenses have figured something out, forcing Rodgers to throw short time and time again. They have to figure out a way to counter this new defensive plan.
9.) Denver Broncos (1-2 = 77-77)
Why am I dropping them lower? Again, it's partly because I'm an open and obvious Manning homer. But also because their two losses were six points losses to two teams that happen to be the most impressive teams in the NFL through three weeks. The only team to give the Falcons or Texans games were the Broncos. Yes, they've been down by 20 in both games, but the problems, especially against the Falcons, are fixable (like Manning throwing three picks). If they can get to the bye at 3-3, they should be fine long term.
8.) New England Patriots (1-2 = 82-64)
It is just weird to see the Patriots at a sub-.500 record. I heard something on the radio that this is the first time Vince Wilfork or Logan Mankins have ever been below .500 in their NFL career. That is just stunning. Anyway, I think it is time to stop anointing the Patriots defense as the great improved unit of the year, and maybe, just maybe, Chandler Jones is not the next Lawrence Taylor. The Patriots offense is fine, but their inability to close out four-minute drives is a problem going forward.
7.) Chicago Bears (2-1 = 74-50)
The longer the season goes, I think we will look back at that TNF game as a fluke. Cutler wasn't great against the Bears, but what wasn't is that incredible defense. Urlacher and Briggs are ageless. That pass rush is better than it has been since about 2006. Stephen Paea and Henry Melton are a really underrated duo of tackles. That is still a really fun defense to watch.
6.) New York Giants (2-1 = 94-65)
You just now the Giants will win this Sunday in Philly and then drop the game the next week. I think at this point that is just what they are. The Giants on last Thursday was the dominant unit that won a Super Bowl. Eli Manning is in that zone that Peyton was where it doesn't matter who the weapons or what the o-line is like. Good to see the pass rush getting back to prime form as well.
5.) San Francisco 49ers (2-1 = 70-65)
That was a stunning loss. Really for the first time since their Week 2 OT loss to Dallas last year were the 49ers just outplayed. They weren't in a game in the 4th quarter for the first time in the Harbaugh era. Personally, I think it is just a fluke, but we'll see going forward. They still have a pretty tough schedule, made tougher with the division being better.
4.) Arizona Cardinals (3-0 = 67-40)
You know who the Cardinals remind me of... The 2011 49ers. Underrated, forgotten QB. Great coach. Great defense with loads of talent in the front-7. Great home-field advantage. They still haven't reached 300 yards in offense in any single game, but you can see Kolb getting more comfortable last week. Their schedule can make it very easy for this team to get to 10 wins, which should be around a magic number.
3.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1 = 98-67)
Can the Ravens just be over .500 on the road? They don't lose home games, but they better do better on the road if they want only home games in the playoffs. Great performance by the offense. Sure, there were a lot of penalty yardage on the New England defense, but the Ravens offense put up 500 yards of their own. Ray Rice was used more, and the real surprise to me is how good Jacoby Jones has been in his role as the 3rd receiver. They one complaint I have is that their defense really needs Terrell Suggs back. That pass rush isn't good enough right now.
2.) Atlanta Falcons (3-0 = 94-48)
They are a really good team, and the most impressive part of the Falcons other than their offense scoring points despite a lack of a running game is the fact that they've played two road games and won by a combined score of 67-27. They've always been good at home in the Ryan/Smith era, but so far the Falcons are actually better on the road in 2011. That is a scary, scary fact for the rest of the NFC.
1.) Houston Texans (3-0 = 88-42)
The Falcons might've gotten a bit lucky in their win over the Broncos, but the Texans deserved every bit of that 20 point lead they held. They are just so complete right now. I still feel scared about the chance that Andre Johnson gets hurt, or if they lose Jonathan Joseph but they have to be the most complete team in the NFL. JJ Watt is an absolute monster, like a younger, more athletic Haloti Ngata. This is a special team right now.
Ranking Next Week's Games
This first game is just bad. I don't know why, but games in St. Louis just seem dull, even if the games are good, like their game against the Redskins.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2) (1:00 - FOX)
These next three are all games that feature bad teams (in the case of Miami and Tennessee two of the lesser '1-2' teams) against my top three teams in the stadiums of the top three teams. That is a recipe for a blowout. Of course, one of these games will probably end up being a lot closer than what I think, but I have no idea which one. They all seem pretty clear-cut.
14.) Cleveland Browns (0-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1) (TNF)
13.) Miami Dolphins (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0) (4:05 - CBS)
12.) Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Houston Texans (3-0) (1:00 - CBS)
These next three are games that are being played in the Southeast part of the country, and those games also seem quite dull. Panthers @ Falcons has a chance to be exciting, but I just don't like what I see from the Panthers right now. As for the others, the Bengals and Redskins are two of the more exciting teams, but the teams they are playing want to suck the life out of their fans.
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Washington Redskins (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) (4:25 - FOX)
These next three are division games, and in the case of the latter two, are far more interesting than what they looked to be. San Diego has lost two close, classic night games in the past two seasons in KC. The Patriots Bills game figured to be a good game coming in, but this is different. The Patriots try to avoid a three game losing streak, and the Bills could really hurt New England with a win. The Vikings could also put the Lions in deep trouble early in the season.
8.) San Diego Chargers (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) New England Patriots (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I don't know what makes me like this particular game, but the 49ers will be angry. The Jets will have to adjust to life without Darrelle. It will be an interesting game and a great opportunity to for both teams to make a statement. The 49ers can tell the world that last week was just a bad Sunday, while the Jets can tell the world that Darrelle Revis's injury isn't crippling to their chances.
5.) San Francisco 49ers (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1) (4:05 - CBS)
This is a massive early season game. Personally, I think Denver is a lot better and had the bad luck of playing the two best teams in the league right now over a six-day span, but there is definitely some concern. The Raiders are on a high after that crazy win.
4.) Oakland Raiders (1-2) @ Denver (1-2) (4:05 - CBS)
This is probably the worst SNF game so far this year, and that is saying something about the quality of the slate. The Eagles really need to bounce-back, but they might have the same problems with pass protection here. This can be a major statement if the Eagles can win it.
3.) New York Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia (2-1) (SNF)
It seems odd placing a game with two teams that have combined for a 1-5 record at the #2 spot, but it is hard not to be enticed by this game. Both these teams are desperate. The Saints are maybe one loss away from a total collapse. The Packers are fuming off that ending last night. Last year they met in the season opener and it was a classic. Because of the dire circumstances for both, that could repeat itself.
2.) New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2) (4:25 - FOX)
This could go like the Bears @ Packers game where Cutler just gets pressured into mistakes, but the Cowboys have a very spotty record at home in prime-time in Jerry World. Overall, they are 3-5, with one of the wins being their Wild-Card rout of Philly in 2009. It will be interesting to see if either of these offenses can get on track after both had miserable Week 2's and mediocre Week 3's.
1.) Chicago Bears (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1) (MNF)
Picks later in the Week.
Panthers -2.5 over Giants (WRONG = 0-1)
Bears -7 over Rams (CORRECT = 1-1)
Buccaneers +8 over Cowboys (CORRECT = 2-1)
49ers -6.5 over Vikings (WRONG = 2-2)
Lions -3.5 over Titans (WRONG = 2-3) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Bengals +3 over Redskins (CORRECT = 3-3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Jets -2.5 over Dolphins (CORRECT = 4-3)
Bills -3 over Browns (CORRECT = 5-3)
Chiefs +8.5 over Saints (CORRECT = 6-3)
Colts -3 over Jaguars (WRONG = 6-4)
Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles (CORRECT = 7-4)
Atlanta +3 over Chargers (CORRECT = 8-4)
Broncos +3 over Texans (WRONG = 8-5)
Steelers -4 over Raiders (WRONG = 8-6)
Ravens -2.5 over Patriots (WRONG = 8-7)
Packers -3 over Seahawks (WRONG = 8-8)
Week 3: 8-8 (Lock: 0-1; Upset: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 27-20-1 (2-1; 3-0)
Best Picks: Nothing too accurate this week. The closest was I picked the Bears to beat the Rams 23-13 (they won 23-6) and the Bills to beat the Browns 23-16 (they won 24-14).
Power Rankings
32.) Cleveland Browns (0-3 = 57-75)
Hey, welcome back, boys. The Browns really should have won their Week 1 game and were very competitive against the Bengals in Week 2, but they looked desolate and slow in Week 3 against the Bills. Weeden has been decent after an awful Week 1, but this team might be in position to go out and draft Matt Barkley anyway.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 = 52-70)
Hey, nice win on a fluke 80-yard TD. That was a fun way to win. The Jaguars are now 3-2 all time in the Luke. One win we can right off since it was last year, but the other two were both ridiculous. Scobee hit a 56 yard field goal at the gun to win in 2008, and then there was Cecil Shorts. Really? Cecil Shorts??
30.) St. Louis Rams (1-2 = 60-78)
That was as predictable a game as I've seen. The Bears defense is so good, and this offense so inconsistent that it was like watching a movie that you know the ending of. The Rams are too bad to beat good teams, but they'll be competitive against any bad to mediocre team they face. Sadly, though, their division no longer really contains any of those outside of maybe Seattle.
29.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 = 68-99)
Congrats for the great comeback over the Saints, but that game says more about the Saints in total disarray (yet, I still have them ranked higher than I should) than it doesa bout the Chiefs. Good to see Jamaal Charles running well again. That is nice. Matt Cassel still looks extremely skittish. The defense really played well especially Justin Houston. I don't think the Chiefs are that good, but that was one nice shining moment.
28.) Tennessee Titans (1-2 = 67-113)
Last week I called them the worst team in the league. Well, they went out and won a game in the most unrepeatable way ever. Sure, they were unlucky to have the Lions catch a hail mary, but they also returned a kick-off for a TD, pulled off the Music City Miracle again, and then got a long fumble return TD. Add that to Schwartz and Shaun Hill botching the OT. My God, that was exciting, but totally, unbelievably, unrepeatable.
27.) Indianapolis Colts (1-2 = 61-83)
Cecil Shorts........... This is not a good Colts team. They might win 5 games. They might still be the second best team in a bad, bad AFC South. But that loss really, really hurt. We basically pulled off what the Jets did to us in the Wild Card game in 2010 (win 17-16), but we left 40 seconds on the clock. Why did we not just put 10 guys in teh box and force Blaine Gabbert to complete more than 10 passes? Really, really frustrating.
26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2 = 60-67)
Josh Freeman had, what, 60 yards passing until that final backdoor-cover field goal drive (thanks for that, Bucs)? That offense is so up and down. The defensive pass rush has improved a ton, though. I'm really happy that Gerald McCoy is finally healthy and really producing. He's always going to be in the shadow of Ndamukong Suh, but he's making his own mark right now.
25.) Carolina Panthers (1-2 = 52-79)
Wow, was that just an awful performance. Ron Rivera is a good defensive coach. I've seen this. But really, how many times does Ramses Barden have to run the same deep in before you figure out a way to stop it. The Panthers offense was bad too, but I think they went away from the run a little too quickly. Cam was bad, but let's remember that he is still a 2nd year player. There was no way he was going to live up to what he was as a rookie. It is more important to see how he responds to that type of game.
24.) Miami Dolphins (1-2 = 65-66)
That was just an ugly, ugly game in every sense. Plus, I'm really angry that it went on so long that I missed the first quarter of the Broncos/Texans game (not that it would've been that fun to watch anyway). Ryan Tannehill is just not good enough right now as a rookie to beat a good defense. It will be interesting to see him next week in Arizona, and by interesting, I mean in a disaster-viewing sense.
23.) New Orleans Saints (0-3 = 83-102)
Again, I have no idea why I'm only dropping the Saints one spot after they blew a 24-6 second half lead at home to a bad team. What is wrong with Drew Brees? This really puts Brees's ridiculous numbers into perspective. The three years (including this one, so far) that he's had a mediocre to bad run game he's thrown 47 interceptions in the 35 games he played. I don't think there is another great QB who is so dependent on having a good run game. We've seen both Mannings, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers and Roethlisberger have fantastic years with bad run games (other than Brady, every QB mentioned has reached had a 12+ win season with one of the worst run games in the NFL). Brees hasn't and maybe can't.
22.) Oakland Raiders (1-2 = 61-88)
That was a wild win, but for Peyton Manning's sake, can that pass defense show up next week. The Raiders two seasons ago had one of the best d-lines in the NFL, but this idea of moving LaMarr Houston outside and getting rid of Trever Scott has really hurt that part. The corners are a mess (I have no idea why McKenzie cut Chekwa and Van Dyke, who both had decent rookie seasons last year). It was nice to see the return of McFadden.
21.) Detroit Lions (1-2 = 87-94)
I think Shaun Hill's competence in Stafford's place says two things: 1.) Calvin Johnson is really good at making QBs look good, and 2.) Shaun Hill is one of the better backups in the NFL. I don't know how much that dropoff is, but it isn't good. The OT situation was totally screwed up, but it was a sort of poetic justice as they didn't deserve to go to OT in the first place, unlike the last deflected hail mary by the Jags in 2009 that eventually cost the Texans a wild-card berth.
20.) Washington Redskins (1-2 = 99-101)
Through three games RGIII has a QB Rating over 100, and the Redskins are the highest scoring team in the NFL. That said, without Carriker and Orakpo, that defense is just not good at all. They'll lose a lot of high scoring games, but seeing RGIII fight through adversity with that awful defense will be fun to watch.
19.) Minnesota Vikings (2-1 = 70-59)
That was a really impressive performance, and I'm starting to come around on Christian Ponder, but I don't buy the Vikings long-term. Peterson is still not at full gear and probably won't be until 2013. They need more receivers outside of Harvin. Their defense has really improved from 2011 though, and a lot of that has to do with change and upgrades in the secondary.
18.) New York Jets (2-1 = 81-75)
Man, if Revis didn't go down this could have been a playoff team. I guess they still could be in a wild AFC, but replacing him is just so hard to do. Cromartie is a really good #2 corner, but as a #1 he's just average in that capacity. It is time for Kyle Wilson to really step up after a disappointing two seasons. Also, Sanchez has pretty much shown the world that his Week 1 performance was a fluke. Two straight sub-50% completion percentage days is not exactly what a franchise QB does.
17.) Buffalo Bills (2-1 = 87-79)
Another good performance in beating a worse team. The Bills have an easy enough schedule where that could get them a playoff spot in a weak AFC. Losing Spiller hurts, but if that is replaced by getting Fred Jackson back they should be fine. The Bills defensive line is still underperforming considering the hype and talent they have at that area. It would be great if they breakout next week against the Patriots, because they would need it to beat them.
16.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-1 = 47-66)
My God, did the Eagles look woefully unprepared for that game. Kevin Kolb, however, looked really prepared for that Eagles defense. Michael Vick's pocket awareness is just awful right now. What was also surprising is that the Eagles defense could not generate much of a pass rush against a medoicre o-line. That is not an easy place to play, but the Eagles really didn't even show up. Just a bad performance from a talented team that is really lucky to even be 2-1.
15.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1 = 85-102)
This Bengals offense is really interesting to watch. Andy Dalton has really improved since last season. He's got weapons outside of just AJ Green in Hawkins and that Binns guy, but Dalton just seems more imposing and calm in the pocket this year. That said, what is up with the Bengals defense right now. That defense was so consistent last season but is just falling apart right now. I have to think sooner or later they will right the ship.
14.) Dallas Cowboys (2-1 = 47-54)
Their defense is really good. I didn't buy into Rob Ryan, and I still don't know if I do, but so far he has that defense playing extremely well. Brandon Carr has been a really good addition so far. That said, the offense is almost perfecting my theory about the Cowboys inability to turn yards into points. That really shouldn't have been a game, but they couldn't put the Bucs away.
13.) San Diego Chargers (2-1 = 63-51)
Man, what happened there? I'm not surprised the Chargers couldn't really stop the Falcons offense, but what was up with Philip Rivers? His receivers couldn't get open, he didn't have any rhythm to his game at all. Just a bizarre performance all around. The Chargers should still be a competitor for the division or a Wild Card spot, but that was the Chargers many thought they were.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (2-1 = 57-39)
Lost in the madness of last night was an incredible performance by the Seahawks defense. Sure, they didn't get a sack in the second half but a lot of that was due to the Packers going to more max-protect than anything else. Their defense is just dominant in that building. The NFC West will be really, really interesting. The offense though has major problems. I just don't think Russell Wilson is all that good, but it may not matter for the Seahawks to win 8-9 games.
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2 = 77-75)
They really need Polamalu and Harrison back. The Steelers defense was a mess when Polamalu missed time in 2009 and is no different now. It's sad because Ben Roethlisberger was absolutely awesome on Sunday. Yes, the Raiders defense right now is porous, but he just scorched them. The Steelers won't go away, especially if Troy and Harrison come back soon, but they are really seemingly an offense-first team right now.
10.) Green Bay Packers (1-2 = 57-54)
What is wrong with the Packers offense. It's like the team has done a literal 180 from last season. The offense is now average while the defense is good. Anyway, back to that offense. Here are their last four games: 20 points against the Giants, including two TDs on drives that should have ended, 22 points against the 49ers with seven off a punt-TD, 23 against the Bears with seven off of a fake-field goal TD, and then 12 in Seattle. Defenses have figured something out, forcing Rodgers to throw short time and time again. They have to figure out a way to counter this new defensive plan.
9.) Denver Broncos (1-2 = 77-77)
Why am I dropping them lower? Again, it's partly because I'm an open and obvious Manning homer. But also because their two losses were six points losses to two teams that happen to be the most impressive teams in the NFL through three weeks. The only team to give the Falcons or Texans games were the Broncos. Yes, they've been down by 20 in both games, but the problems, especially against the Falcons, are fixable (like Manning throwing three picks). If they can get to the bye at 3-3, they should be fine long term.
8.) New England Patriots (1-2 = 82-64)
It is just weird to see the Patriots at a sub-.500 record. I heard something on the radio that this is the first time Vince Wilfork or Logan Mankins have ever been below .500 in their NFL career. That is just stunning. Anyway, I think it is time to stop anointing the Patriots defense as the great improved unit of the year, and maybe, just maybe, Chandler Jones is not the next Lawrence Taylor. The Patriots offense is fine, but their inability to close out four-minute drives is a problem going forward.
7.) Chicago Bears (2-1 = 74-50)
The longer the season goes, I think we will look back at that TNF game as a fluke. Cutler wasn't great against the Bears, but what wasn't is that incredible defense. Urlacher and Briggs are ageless. That pass rush is better than it has been since about 2006. Stephen Paea and Henry Melton are a really underrated duo of tackles. That is still a really fun defense to watch.
6.) New York Giants (2-1 = 94-65)
You just now the Giants will win this Sunday in Philly and then drop the game the next week. I think at this point that is just what they are. The Giants on last Thursday was the dominant unit that won a Super Bowl. Eli Manning is in that zone that Peyton was where it doesn't matter who the weapons or what the o-line is like. Good to see the pass rush getting back to prime form as well.
5.) San Francisco 49ers (2-1 = 70-65)
That was a stunning loss. Really for the first time since their Week 2 OT loss to Dallas last year were the 49ers just outplayed. They weren't in a game in the 4th quarter for the first time in the Harbaugh era. Personally, I think it is just a fluke, but we'll see going forward. They still have a pretty tough schedule, made tougher with the division being better.
4.) Arizona Cardinals (3-0 = 67-40)
You know who the Cardinals remind me of... The 2011 49ers. Underrated, forgotten QB. Great coach. Great defense with loads of talent in the front-7. Great home-field advantage. They still haven't reached 300 yards in offense in any single game, but you can see Kolb getting more comfortable last week. Their schedule can make it very easy for this team to get to 10 wins, which should be around a magic number.
3.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1 = 98-67)
Can the Ravens just be over .500 on the road? They don't lose home games, but they better do better on the road if they want only home games in the playoffs. Great performance by the offense. Sure, there were a lot of penalty yardage on the New England defense, but the Ravens offense put up 500 yards of their own. Ray Rice was used more, and the real surprise to me is how good Jacoby Jones has been in his role as the 3rd receiver. They one complaint I have is that their defense really needs Terrell Suggs back. That pass rush isn't good enough right now.
2.) Atlanta Falcons (3-0 = 94-48)
They are a really good team, and the most impressive part of the Falcons other than their offense scoring points despite a lack of a running game is the fact that they've played two road games and won by a combined score of 67-27. They've always been good at home in the Ryan/Smith era, but so far the Falcons are actually better on the road in 2011. That is a scary, scary fact for the rest of the NFC.
1.) Houston Texans (3-0 = 88-42)
The Falcons might've gotten a bit lucky in their win over the Broncos, but the Texans deserved every bit of that 20 point lead they held. They are just so complete right now. I still feel scared about the chance that Andre Johnson gets hurt, or if they lose Jonathan Joseph but they have to be the most complete team in the NFL. JJ Watt is an absolute monster, like a younger, more athletic Haloti Ngata. This is a special team right now.
Ranking Next Week's Games
This first game is just bad. I don't know why, but games in St. Louis just seem dull, even if the games are good, like their game against the Redskins.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2) (1:00 - FOX)
These next three are all games that feature bad teams (in the case of Miami and Tennessee two of the lesser '1-2' teams) against my top three teams in the stadiums of the top three teams. That is a recipe for a blowout. Of course, one of these games will probably end up being a lot closer than what I think, but I have no idea which one. They all seem pretty clear-cut.
14.) Cleveland Browns (0-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1) (TNF)
13.) Miami Dolphins (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0) (4:05 - CBS)
12.) Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Houston Texans (3-0) (1:00 - CBS)
These next three are games that are being played in the Southeast part of the country, and those games also seem quite dull. Panthers @ Falcons has a chance to be exciting, but I just don't like what I see from the Panthers right now. As for the others, the Bengals and Redskins are two of the more exciting teams, but the teams they are playing want to suck the life out of their fans.
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Washington Redskins (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) (4:25 - FOX)
These next three are division games, and in the case of the latter two, are far more interesting than what they looked to be. San Diego has lost two close, classic night games in the past two seasons in KC. The Patriots Bills game figured to be a good game coming in, but this is different. The Patriots try to avoid a three game losing streak, and the Bills could really hurt New England with a win. The Vikings could also put the Lions in deep trouble early in the season.
8.) San Diego Chargers (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) New England Patriots (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I don't know what makes me like this particular game, but the 49ers will be angry. The Jets will have to adjust to life without Darrelle. It will be an interesting game and a great opportunity to for both teams to make a statement. The 49ers can tell the world that last week was just a bad Sunday, while the Jets can tell the world that Darrelle Revis's injury isn't crippling to their chances.
5.) San Francisco 49ers (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1) (4:05 - CBS)
This is a massive early season game. Personally, I think Denver is a lot better and had the bad luck of playing the two best teams in the league right now over a six-day span, but there is definitely some concern. The Raiders are on a high after that crazy win.
4.) Oakland Raiders (1-2) @ Denver (1-2) (4:05 - CBS)
This is probably the worst SNF game so far this year, and that is saying something about the quality of the slate. The Eagles really need to bounce-back, but they might have the same problems with pass protection here. This can be a major statement if the Eagles can win it.
3.) New York Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia (2-1) (SNF)
It seems odd placing a game with two teams that have combined for a 1-5 record at the #2 spot, but it is hard not to be enticed by this game. Both these teams are desperate. The Saints are maybe one loss away from a total collapse. The Packers are fuming off that ending last night. Last year they met in the season opener and it was a classic. Because of the dire circumstances for both, that could repeat itself.
2.) New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2) (4:25 - FOX)
This could go like the Bears @ Packers game where Cutler just gets pressured into mistakes, but the Cowboys have a very spotty record at home in prime-time in Jerry World. Overall, they are 3-5, with one of the wins being their Wild-Card rout of Philly in 2009. It will be interesting to see if either of these offenses can get on track after both had miserable Week 2's and mediocre Week 3's.
1.) Chicago Bears (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1) (MNF)
Picks later in the Week.
