Haven't done one of these in a while, but with this being Week 1 of my prognostication challenge (66.6% and above - there is no alternative), and this season becoming increasingly interesting, there is need for a Monday Week Review.
Pittsburgh 6 @ Cleveland 13 (I picked CLE : 1-0)
I got this right, but I am stunned Cleveland pulled this off, and shut Pittsburgh down in a way that essentially emasculated Big Ben and Mike Tomlin (who looked petrified in that ski-mask garb). Having had Rob Ryan as the Raiders defensive coordinator, I know that he can create schemes that can shut anyone down when necessary. There are weeks where the guy just emulates everything that his father was: a gruffy guy who can create Einstein-ian schemes. They did it here, pressuring Roethlisberger to no end. This whole year I was surprised with the protection that the Steelers o-line was giving Ben Roethlisberger, but on Thursday, it was back to 2007 o-line. There were free rushers everywhere. The Browns are a team full of no names on defense, but guys that are all similar, lending that defense interchangable parts that can all rush, and all cover. Also, the corners, especially Eric Wright (who is a good, good player; much like Leigh Bodden from a couple years ago) kept good coverage, bumping them. There were plays to make down the field, but there was no time for Ben to get it too them. Now, the Browns really were nothing special on offense, but they won the field-position battle consistently. Josh Cribbs is a great great player. He's the new Devin Hester, a guy who could single-handidly change games just due to his ability to switch field position, which is all the Browns needed. Great performance by that Cleveland defense and Josh Cribbs. The Steelers are done. Since 2003, every Super Bowl Champion made the playoffs the following year, while the Super Bowl Runner-up missed the playoffs. Strangely, in the two Steelers defenses of Championships, they will miss the playoffs while the runner-up makes it.
Denver 16 @ Indianapolis 28 (IND : 2-0)
Another win for me, and another win for the Colts. Weird game. I've never seen Manning, and really that offense as a whole as there were numerous drops, play that miserably for two quarters. They were dynamite in those first four drives, where they seemingly scored at will. That was the real Colts. Then came the crap Colts. They couldn't run, couldn't pass. Manning was unlucky with those first two interceptions. Credit has to be given to the Denver defense, who showed why they were the top-rated pass defense. As for Denver's offense, sure people will point out that the huge game by Marshall spells doom for the Colts, but that would be so if any of their other WRs did anything. Marshall had 21 catches and Eddie Royal had 1. That is essentially the same as both having 11 catches. If that were the case, we have a problem, as the Colts couldn't stop either. They draped Royal (and Gaffney and the ex-Colts hero Stokley) all day, even with a patchwork secondary. The Colts put their 4th corner on Marshall, and gave him help over the top, which led to 21 catches but less than 10 per catch. That is the more important stat. None of those catches were for huge gains. That was perfect Tampa-2 defense. They bent and bent, but never broke. Interception at the 2 yard line as well as two straight 4th down stops by the Colts defense, and you understand why this team is 2nd in points allowed. I am more and more impressed by that Colts run defense. They tackle well, but the biggest difference is that they can now get pressure with their DTs. Antonio Johnson and Daniel Muir have been great the last couple weeks. Also, the signature of the Colts. Clinging to a 21-16 lead, they took over the ball on their 20 with 9:30 left. After doing nothing, they went on a 12 play 80 yard clinic that made the Broncos use all their timeouts. When they needed to, they put that hammer down and just sucked the life out of those Broncos. That is a Championship performance.
New York (a) 26 @ Tampa Bay 3 (NYJ : 3-0)
Great start. The Jets can just constrict these bad teams with that defense. Not sure if that defense can do the same to the Colts/Chargers of the AFC, but with the schedule the Jets have left, they can do great things with that defense in the regular season. They can make noise in the rest of the season. Josh Freeman has really regressed the last two weeks. Sure, the Jets defense is good, but he looked lost. The Jets, on the other hand, looked like a team that relies on that defense too much. Tampa cannot stop anyone on the ground, and although the aggregate number may look nice, it was not an overpowering ground attack like they have in earlier games. Also, Kellen Clemens actually makes me want to see the Sanchize again. The Jets brass should get both slapped for drafting Clemens and having the sense to realize that he is not the answer. As for the Bucs, I think that Glazer family has to realize that the Josh's and more importantly Raheem Morris is not the answer as well.
Buffalo 16 @ Kansas City 10 (BUF : 4-0)
I am on fire. The Bills and Chiefs, not so much. The Bills pounded the rock, but with the Patriots game coming up, I wish they threw it a little more, get that Fitzpatrick to Owens/Evans combo in sync. Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch both ran well. As for the Chiefs, they lost at home when they outgained their 4-8 competition by 81, having their running back (the good prospect Jamaal Charles, a guy who made Larry Johnson an absolutely useless homophobic) average 7.1 ypc. Matt Cassel wasn't even horrible. Again, they lost. They played listless, and acted as if they were all inebriated in the red zone. Not exactly a good performance in front of the Chiefs faithful. It's amazing that the Chiefs fanbase probably unanimously dreams of the Schottenheimer era. At least that man gave the fans the opportunity to lose in the playoffs every year.
Green Bay 21 @ Chicago 14 (CHI : 4-1)
My first loss. I was feeling mighty smart when it was 14-13 in the middle of the third, with the Packers looking like the listless team I thought they were. Then, Jay Cutler happened. Although he was missing his only legitimate weapon in Devin Hester, he was definitely good, for him, through most of the game. When you consider that the Packers defense was on one of the better rolls in the NFL, that performance was more impressive. Of course, the inevitable atrocious pick did indeed uncloak itself, leading to the final touchdown, but they kept it close. It was nice to see a Ryan Grant sighting, but most of those yards were gained in the two big runs. Aaron Rodgers had his second straight sub-par game, but kept the ball out of harms way, taking sacks instead of forcing balls (something Cutler should look into). That Green Bay defense is scary, except I think they are the perfect outdoor, cold-weather defense. They are not built for an indoor track, as much of their success is predicated over slower corner who speacialize in that bump-and-run coverage. This bodes well if they play the Eagles in round one, but if it is any of those other three teams, it will not end well. The Bears should at least take something positive out of this performance. Cutler looked better, fitting balls into tight coverage. Both Johnnie Knox, and even Devin Aromashadu played well. However, what happened to Matt Forte. It's not like the Bears o-line is appreciably worse this year. That has to be one of the more shocking developments of the year.
New Orleans 26 @ Atlanta 23 (NO : 4-2)
Another loss, and I can't feel too bad. I feel like that the Saints could have easily killed them. Brees had a great day, but was limited to short gains much of the time. Reggie Bush played well catching balls out of the backfield. There are rumors that the Saints will look to cut ties with Reggie, and I think that an Eagles or Seahawks type of West Coast team would love him. Credit Atlanta, and moreso Chris Redman, for showing up and keeping up with Brees pass for pass and yard for yard. Here is my impression of the Saints: defensively, they are schizophrenic. Bad days on offense will happen every now and then, so that will be corrected. I expect them to unload that attack on Dallas like they did against New England. As for their defense, when they want to play, and when they feel the need to prove themselves, attack with those Gregg Williams blitz schemes, they can be great. Now, injuries in that secondary to Jabari Greer, Roman Harper etc, have grealty limited their blitzing capabilities, as Williams likes to play straight man behind the blitz, which they cannot do as well with the likes of Pierson Prieleou roaming back there. Also, Atlanta has an underratedly good offensive-line, filled with young talent (that Tyler Clabo and Harvey Dahl are dirt-dog stars), so they blocked the attemtped straight front-four pass rush. Atlanta played well, and they have a shot to finish the year nicely, if Ryan comes back, but they are building that team well and performances like that will help to appeal to their fans.
Detroit 3 @ Baltimore 48 (BAL : 5-2)
Is there any point of this. The Ravens did whatever they wanted against an already junk roster that had injury problems. Ray Rice is a beast, and will probably make all those Rutger-ians proud (except for Parth, who thinks that all ball-sports are played with perfect spheres with yellow-green fuzz). Joe Flacco had a nice bounce-back game with a good performances, but again playing the Lions is really the magic elixir, football version. Can't really take too much out of these games, as these beatdowns are mostly flukes, not indicitave of what is to come.
Miami 14 Jacksonville 10 (MIA : 6-2)
This was probably the most boring close game between two teams in the heart of the wild-card hunt. This game seemed like two teams that were good, but inevitably irrelevant (tell that to New England, though). David Garrard was not good. Maurice Jones-Drew is that whole offense. Stack the box, and Garrard and his stable of random wideouts (Sims-Walker, who is nothing against premier teams, Troy Williamson, the earlier day Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Torry Holt, great player and probably hall-of-famer but its hard to run routes with that cane), and you can shut down that offense. As for the Dolphins, Chad Henne is continuing to grow in front of our very eyes. He is the best young QB in that division, and will likely, assuming Miami can finally draft some competent wideouts, reach that Rivers status in a couple years. It is admirable as to what they are doing without the luxury of the Wildcat and having Ronnie Brown out. Also, Ricky Williams was largely innefective, so that makes the win all the more impressive. Thankfully, the Jaguars are now out of that "If the playoffs started today, they would be in" columns and projections. They are a good-tough football team, but the Jags should not sniff the playoffs, and if they do, that 3 seed is probably going to have the easiest first round game in recent memory.
Carolina 10 @ New England 20 (CAR : 7-2)
I cannot lose. I just can't. This game is a classic 2003 New England win. One problem, they aren't that team. They played against Matt Moore for christ sake. That is one of the least impressive double digit wins. Matt Moore did nothing to show me that he is in anyway that teams future. DeAngelo played well, which is rare. The Patriots are rarely gutted by run-first teams, and give up chunks to pass-first teams. As for the Pats, they still were not able to get any pressure on the quarterback, and there were holes in that defensive back-end. They get another scrimmage type game to sort out those problems this week in Buffalo, but nothing showed me they were back. OK, I've avoided it for too long: let's get to Randy-is-not-going-all-out-gate. How is this news. He's never gone all-out. That's not Randy's thing. Now, he has been worse than usual the past couple weeks, disappearing after that long TD against the Dolphins and doing nothing yesterday. My take is that at his age and experience, he just won't run those slant/cross routes over the middle. He's done with those. He'll either run outs or go deep. Also, if Brady is inaccurate, it's done. He won't become the defender in an interception scenario. Brady is still a bit off, and mainly becuase there is no third option. He has to feed it too Welker. Welker is great, but alot of receivers can put up those numbers in his role. That is why even though Welker can get his catches, they will only score in the 20's. Take away the London game, and the all-time Halley's comet like fluke against Tennessee, these are the point-totals for the Pats: 25-9-26-27-27-34-31-17-21-20. That puts them in line with Houston. That is the real story. People overrated that offense to no end.
Seattle 7 @ Houston 34 (HOU : 8-2)
Nearly got this exactly right. Houston is doing that patented "lets start winning once we are out of it to gain fan interest for next year where we will ultimately fall again" thing again, and at least it is good for my fantasy team. Andre Johnson cannot be contained. I am sure that he can do that every week if Schaub just feeds him the ball. Their running game looks invigorated with Slaton out of there. As for Seattle, why have we not heard any rumblings about Mora's job security. He has done nothing with a team that was universally considered a 9-11 win talented team. Sure there have been injuries, but there is no way they should be this bad. Before the Hawk fans good even get their Coffees, they were down 24-0. If the Texans wanted too, they could have put up like 45. That was an impressive performance by the Texans, who I guess conceivably have a wild-card shot if they win out, and an absolutely reprehensible preformance by the Hawks and that coach.
Cincinnatti 10 @ Minnesota 30 (CIN : 8-3)
Here is where the week starts going awry. I have to admit, I was wrong. Although to me the game seemed closer than that score indicated, and Minnesota was not as good as a 30 point team, that was impressive. They absolutely shut down Carson Palmer and the passing offense. Cedric Benson got his yards, but was a boom-bust type, with a couple long runs and little else inbetween. The Vikings pass defense looked alot better with Antoine Winfield back. Although Jare Allen did not show much, the rest of the o-line was great around him. The Bengals o-line is not overly talented, but the Williams wall and Robinson owned them in every way. It was not a fair matchup. The Vikings are alot better at home, especially that defense which just feeds off those fans. I still think that they will have a struggle if Arizona (or Philly) come to them in round two, but if those front-four can get that type of pressure, than they should be fine to go past it. Cincinnatti has to find a way to air it out a little more. Lavreneaus Coles has done nothing. Nothing. I thought he would at least be 80% of the player T.J. Houshmanzadeh was, but he's been about 8% instead. That offense is not explosive, and if their defense plays like it did, they probably don't get by round two. Of course, it was a bad game against a great opponent, so before we write them off, let's at least see what happens next Sunday in Qualcomm.
St. Louis 7 @ Tennessee (TEN : 9-3)
Let's not even waste time with this garbage. I mean, Kraig Null started, and that is all I need to know. That was pitiful. Chris Johnson is amazing against the bad teams, and just great against good teams. That's really all anyone can take from this game.
Washington 34 @ Oakland 13 (OAK : 9-4)
I feel cheated here too. It was 10-10 when the Redskins got 40 yards on a 3rd and 10 pass interference. That call was the worst call I have ever seen. Santana Moss just tripped on his own, and they gave him the call. That, coupled with Gradkowski's injury in the next drive, and it was over. The Raiders are so pitiful with JaMarcus, and it's not all Russell's fault. I felt bad for him this time. Now, alot of it has to do with Russell's vapid demeanor, but the whole offense seems more commited when Gradkowski is back there. They play harder, try harder, block better, catch better, run crisper routes et al. They do not give Russell any help. That, coupled with sack after sack after sack made a game that was 17-13 in the 3rd into a pitiful blowout. So far, the Raiders have followed 3 good wins against good teams with 3 just blank performances. Now, Gradkowski is done for the year, and we are stuck with three more weeks of Russell. And, to top it all off, Jake Locker is going back one more year, so we are probably stuck with Sam Bradford, or god forbid, Jimmy Clausen. Dark days in the Black Hole.
San Diego 20 @ Dallas 17 (SD : 10-4)
I think that this is the first time I got a score absolutely right. I think it says more about Dallas. Something is just off with that team. They just can't get it done, at all. They put together back-to-back 90 yard drives, which ended in a combined 7 points. Phil Rivers threw an absolutely Russell-ian interception, and then Nick Folk missed a short field-goal. San Diego played a B performance, and easily won. I'm not convinced the Chargers are really all that good. They have given up 100 yards rushing in 12 of 13 games. Missing Jamaal Williams really hurts. Vincent Jackson finally had a good game, but LT is still invisible. Darren Sproles seems to be a thing of the past now. Rivers, like I already said, threw an absolutely awful pick. I think that when they meet a smash-mouth team they are not ready to fight it head-on, like they will have to when they host the Bengals this year. This was a game with two teams, one in a free-fall and one as hot as any team not named "New Orleans" or "Indianapolis".
Eagles 45 Giants 38 (NYG : 10-5)
What a game. DeSean Jackson is a beast. Eli Manning had a Peyton performance. There was no tackling, no covering, no defense of any kind. For two teams that I thought would be right up there in the top-5 to top-10 defenses, this was a stunner. Now, two of the Eagles TDs were non-offensive, a flukey bounce fumble-return and a punt-return that was Hester-ian. The Giants couldn't stop anything. After they finally clawed back to the lead, it took all of 1 play to lose that advantage. What happened to that offensive depth. I am starting to believe that Bill Sheridan, Steve Spagnuolo's replacement, is a dog the size of Randy Moss. That was an awful performance. Really, the Eagles defense was just as bad. They could not stop Manning, and they could not tackle as two 12 yard completions, ended in 60 yard catch and runs to Hick and Hixon. Manning was great, playing with a confidence and poise that we have only seen early last year and in those playoff games in '07. He was amazing, and aside from that fumble, was perfect. There is nothing that he could have done any differently, and the special teams and more importantly and more embarrisingly, that defense was atrocious. As for Philadelphia, they are now in sole control of that division, and with Dallas in free-fall and New York two games back and having already been swept by Philadelphia, anything short of an Eagles collapse and that division is theirs.
Enjoy the MNF game.
