Before the picks, a quick look back to see where my "10 predictions for the second half" are:
1.) Miami or Carolina makes a serious Wild-Card chase. Well, right, I guess. In my mind, I thought it would be the Panthers, since they have an easier schedule. I was wrong there, but I was right on. In any way, they are both tough outs, and Carolina is still spoiler material.
2.) Pittsburgh goes on a huge run that makes them everyones' "Team you don't want to play". I was imagining the run start in the second half. I still think it starts now, and I still think they garner the "You don't want to play this team" vote, but so far, I've gotten it wrong.
3.) Cowboys fold late and Giants take their spot. This one can't be accurately evaluated yet, but considering that the Giants just beat Dallas, and Dallas' remaining schedule is hell, I think I'm on the right track here.
4.) Both Indianapolis and New Orleans lose. Now, this could still be true, but I said that New Orleans would lose this week, and Indianapolis to Houston in Week 12. Both are (will be) wrong, so I won't take credit for something that could still potentially be right.
5.) Regardless of that weeks Bengals @ Steelers game, the Bengals would make the playoffs. Right on. They even won that game to boot. They are playoff bound.
6.) Regardless of the Pats @ Colts game, the Colts would have home-field. Can safely say I got that right. It seems like ages ago 4th and 2 happened, and home-field was an issue.
7.) Passing Numbers decrease and go to usual standards. Passing Yardage hasn't decreased yet, but touchdowns have. I still say that with players sitting and weather, it kind of lessens, but we are still looking at a record number of QBs at the 4,000 yard mark.
8.) 4 teams go 3-13 or worse. There are currently six teams with three of fewer wins, with four under three. Can't see three of those teams ending up with four wins. We are looking at a historically large amount of awful teams.
9.) Minnesota @ Arizona decides the 2 seed. I still feel good. Arizona has a much easier schedule here on out. They should run the table. Couple that with two Vikings losses, and I am Nostradamus.
10.) Colts and Saints both make Super Bowl. I still hope to God it happens. It will be one fun game, and will make up for Rex Grossman and those Bears ruining that matchup from happening in 2006.
Now on to the Picks!!!
I'm going all-out now. It is time. Now that fantasy playoffs are upon, I'm entering picking playoffs (which is strange, since I'll certainy be picking the playoffs). Anyway, I am going to look under every crevice for information to help me. Scour injury reports, and gloss over forecasts. Seriously. I have challenged myself: 66.6% of the picks right for the last 4 weeks. It's on, Me!!
Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cleveland
It says alot about a team when they are hosting a team that is on a four-game losing streak and is giving 10 points. But that is just where the Mangini's are at. The forecast is for high teens and light snow at times (I wasn't kidding. Forecasts. Yeah, it's happening). This really nuetralizes the advantage that Cleveland was due, as the team hosting the Thursday Night Game is undefeated (note: this does not include games that are inexplicably played under Canadian Domes). Also, it limits the already limited offense that is helmed by Brady "I wish the fat goon Weis still coached me, and I actually was good enough to bang the Notre Dame co-eds. Now I'm stuck with the Dawg Pound as sources of poon" Quinn. The problem in Pittsburgh has not been the offense, and even with Ward likely out, they should be able to run on, and throw on, that Browns defense at will. On the other hand, look for the Pittsburgh to retain some of its swagger against that practice-squad of a unit passing as the Browns offense. However, I can't get around this being Cleveland's only chace to do something on a national stage (with that horrendous MNF appearance that every Cleveland fan got permanently deleted from memory). They keep it close, but their inability to move the ball finally kills them.
Steelers 20 Cleveland 14 (CLE)
Denver @ Indianapolis (-7)
Surprising to not see a media groundswell behind the Broncos this week, like there was a week ago for the Titans. I guess the media might finally understand that the Colts are too good to lose these games at home against less than stellar competition. Now, this matchup is easy. Firstly, the Colts own the Broncos. When the Broncos were a good team, much resembling their current one, from 2003-2006, they played each other three times in meaningful games (twice they played late season when the Colts were resting). The scores: IND 41 DEN 10; IND 49 DEN 24; IND 34 DEN 31. The close one was in Mile High. That was at a time where the Broncos had given up six touchdowns in six games. The Colts drilled them on offense. However, the real reason why I see the Colts rolling is that this is the last truly meaningful game they will play until the playoffs. A Colts win here and they clinch home field. A win hear and the get the all-time regular season win streak that the Pats currently own, and knowing the Colts as I do, they will want that record (a want enhanced by the Pats currently holding it). Now, I do not expect the Colts to sit anyone against the Jaguars, but the same motivation won't be there. This is their last chance to impress before the Divisional round. Also, at 8-4, the Broncos don't truly need this game. Just beating Oakland and KC, both in Denver, is good enough for a Wild Card. It's really not that hard.
Broncos 13 Colts 34 (IND)
New York (a) (-3) @ Tampa Bay
If these were the 2008 Mangini/Favre Jets they lose this game, just like they did when they controlled their own destiny in the AFC East last year and laid eggs in Frisco and Seattle. However, these are the Rex Jets, and they will drum Josh Freeman, whose confidence was at the least bombed by successive batallions of fighter planes last Sunday with his 5-pick game (A Sanchize, as it were). Also, even with the forever oblivious Morris at the helm, they cannot dare fall ahead in the "Race for Ndamokong Suh". He's the next Warren Sapp, and he will look good in Pewter.
Jets 27 Buccaneers 17
Buffalo @ Kansas City (PK)
This is a diffucult game to decide. There is no weather forecasted (not like it would have effected the Bills anyway, due to their being from the second coldest, loneliest place on earth. The first being wherever the Hell Purdue is, Indiana; Ashwath, good thinking not going to Miami, where it is sunny and people drink like fish, and can eat things like fish, well done). Kansas City is not as bad as they showed the last two weeks (because other than Cleveland, and Florida in that SEC Title Game, no one is). However, there are rumblings that Haley is losing that team, and the Cassel/Croyle crapitition is effecting the locker room. Contrast that with the weird case of Terrell Owens not effecting that locker room. It's strange. Fitzpatrick is using that Harvard education well, by realizing he has two deep threats to his disposal and actually throwing to them. A theory lost on Trent Edwards due to physical limitations and JP Losman due to mental limitations. Anyway, Fewell Fury, '09! (Note to Buffalo, please don't make that your slogan for the last four games). It's sad that I am confident picking against the Chiefs in Arrowhead against a 4-8 team led by my 31st ranked head coach, however such is life.
Bills 24 Chiefs 20 (BUF)
Green Bay (-3) @ Chicago
Green Bay seems to be too bandwagony right now. They have rolled off four straight since that loss to the creamsicles. Their defense is playing inspired. A hot Green Bay against a Chicago team who managed to look like dung against the Rams - how is this line not higher. Makes me think that Vegas knows something. I won't bother checking the forecast, since it is irrelevant, since Green Bay is colder than Chicago. It seems to obvious to foresee Jay Cutler have a Sanchize game, and Rodgers cut up that injured defense. This line should be a touchdown. That's why I'm leaning towards Chicago. It puts a dent into the playoff picture, it brings up the Rodgers is not Favre creation (which should be put to rest, since their numbers are identical with Favre having a better team around him), and finally gives Cutler-mania some legs to actually begin. I will feel like a fool come Sunday afternoon when Cutler throws his nth pick-six, and Green Bay is romping 27-6 at half-time, but it just seems way too obvious.
Packers 17 Bears 24 (CHI)
New Orleans (-10) @ Atlanta
This seems obvious also, because it is. Even if Matt Ryan were playing, I would pick the Saints. The Saints are on a mission. They want 16-0, and they beat there Miami 1985 game (the game where you are undefeated and everything goes wrong, also known as the Baltimore-New England 2007 game). They are in the clear. They want blood, and the easiest way to gear up for probably their only tough game left next week against Dallas is to drum this Falcons team. Even if Turner plays, it won't be at full rest, and unless Chris Redman started an HGH cycle midweek (always a possibility in sports in 2009), it shouldn't be close. Again, the Saints want this too much to throw it away here.
Saints 38 Falcons 20 (NO)
Detroit @ Baltimore (-13.5)
Interesting line favoring a team that looked like crap by that much. Hard to fathom that the Lions are that bad, especially with a Stafford-to-Megatron sighting last week. Those are about as common as Tiger doing his wife anymore, but they are fun (I'm guessing Tiger doing his wife isn't actually fun for either party anymore, but I had to give a timely analogy). Baltimore can be beaten deep, and Ed Reed is still questionable. However, with the whole world being 6-6 in the AFC, and the biggest tease since those godaddy.com commercials in Jacksonville the only thing between them and a playoff spot, they know that a good month of football, and they are in. It's in their hands. They need a statement win, because it hasn't been pretty, what with the escape against Dennis Dixon and the drubbing they took in Lambeau. They need to lay a team to the woodshed, and Baltimore has shown the ability to do that (against Cleveland and KC early). It happens.
Lions 14 Ravens 30 (BAL)
Miami @ Jacksonville (-3)
It's our paper tigers again. They are not good in any conceivable way, apart from Maurice Jones-Drew. They have been outscored by 48 points, which is ridiculous for a team that is 7-5. That is the scoring differential of a 5-7 team, which is what they truly are. Miami, on the other hand, is a ballsy team, that doesn't beat itself. Teams that beat themselves are all that Jacksonville can handle right now. Well, teams that beat themselves and the St. Louis/Kansas City combo. Miami does not do that, unless they are playing New Orleans. Miami impressed me to no end last week, winning a game without any help from the holy wildcat. That was impressive, and I finally feel vindicated for regarding Chad Henne so highly on my QB Rankings that I did back in like Week 7. They also are among that 6-6 muck, but they also have the advantage of possibly winning that division (something these self-same Dolphins can greatly aid in two weeks up in Foxboro). They need this game, and outside of true trap games, that is usually what wins out late.
Dolphins 27 Jaguars 23 (MIA)
Carolina @ New England (-13.5)
This is just getting insane. Really, a team that has dropped two in a row is favored by 13.5 against a team that is not among that bottom tier. This is insane. To me the Patriots are essentially a slightly worse form of the 2002-2004 Colts. Great QB, great WR's, nothing else. Also, this is great support for the Manning side of the Brady/Manning argument. Brady is finally on a team resembling what Manning had in 2003-2004. Little defense when it mattered, and a good offense. I'll say Manning was a little more impressive in those years. Now, we are hearing that Brady has cracked ribs to go along with the finger (which explains his mysterious foray into the locker-room after the first touchdown to Moss). The team is in disarray, what with players being sent home midweek and Moss acting like Minnesota Moss. Plus, that defense really is awful. Of course, the media will still call Belichick the best drafter in the league when he has failed to replenish that team with his recent drafts. Forecast calls for clear skies, but winds up to 15. That's not a huge number, but when the QB is ailing physically, that is enough to weaken him by about 10%. Couple that with the Williams/Stewart combo, and I think that the Panthers cover. Not win, but cover. If the Panthers win, honestly, Belichick should be fired on the spot.
Panthers 16 Patriots 24 (CAR)
Seattle @ Houston (-6.5)
It's now time for Houston to start their yearly December run. It really is. They still have an outside shot at the playoffs if they win out (not really, but anything could happen), as the sixth spot will likely be a 9-7 team. Seattle really hasn't played well outside of Qwest, and the Texans have played better at Reliant. Schaub and Johnson should torch this secondary, and now that they have the Jaguars-sized tease that is Steve "Let me personally kill millions of fantasy teams this year, just for shits and giggles" Slaton on IR, I think they will improve. Not much to say here, except for this is a meaningless game, which is a surprise to August me, as I thought both teams were playoff bound.
Seahawks 17 Texans 34 (HOU)
Cincinnatti @ Minnesota (-6.5)
Cincinnatti were large underdogs in both Baltimore games, both Pittsburgh games and the Packers game in Week 2 in Lambeau (their forgotten big game). They won each and every single one of those games. They only lost on two flukes (the Stokley week 1 miracle, two fourth-quarter fumbles to the Raiders) and to Houston on Houston's best day all year (it happens). They are a solid team, with the best defense in the NFL this year (I am sure of that fact). They have two cover corners who can shut down Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin or Berrian. They have fast LBs and an underrated nameless D-Line (Fanene Power!!!!) that hasn't allowed a 100-yd rusher since Week 4. Also, I still have an outside shot at my "Cardinals steal the 2 seed" prediction coming through. Brett Favre showed us all something last week, that if you pressure him, which is made easier by the injury-riddled o-line of the Vikes, that he reverts to the old Favre. Cincinnatti's no-name d-line is great at generating pressure up the middle. Perfect situation for the Bengals to get another scalp, and the Favre-machine to take another hit.
Bengals 20 Vikings 14 (CIN)
St. Louis @ Tennessee (-13.5)
This column is starting to run at a Simmons-ian length. So, since there is no reason to spend any time on this game at all, let's do this one quickly. Tennessee is smarting after the Colts game. They are better in every conceivable way. They win, big. Vince Young and Johnson continue to get hyped to the Moon for beating bad teams.
Rams 14 Titans 34 (TEN)
Washington (-1) @ Oakland
How is a Washington team that just lost their "Super Bowl" (Fred Smoot's words, not mine), travelling cross country, to take on a team that is 2-1 with Gradkowski, a favorite. I am a Raider fan, and this year they have only won when we least expect it (like that Bengals game), and I expect it, which scares me. It really does. They should win this game easily. They should take Jim Zorn's sorry ass program and shoot them behind that joke of a stadium the Raiders play in. Commitment to getting better. That's all the Raider Nation is asking for, and that's all they are doing. Now, just get us Jake Locker.
Redskins 14 Raiders 24 (OAK)
San Diego @ Dallas (-3.5)
San Diego has won 15 straight December games. Dallas hasn't had a winning December since Bill Clinton actually had not had sex with that woman. So why do I think San Diego loses. Dallas is really good in that satirization of a stadium. Since their opening loss, they are undefeated there, and are playing great football (apart from the Redskins game, which was the Redskins other Championship game). Also, the Cowboys aren't going to go winless in December. That's not how they operate. They have to sucker the fans in first. Also, the Chargers are do to Rivers it up. They have built this winning streak on a bunch of lies, essentially and I think it all goes down in Dallas, where the crowd will be into it, and Romo shows why he is a top-10 QB (just to un-show it the next three games). This one is my only real gut pick, because everybody sane should pick the better Chargers team.
Chargers 20 Cowboys 24 (DAL)
Philadelphia @ New York (n) (-1)
Depending on what happens early, this is for the division lead. If the Cowboys lose, and the Giants win, all three are tied in an 8-5 quagmire. Manage a tri-NFC East teams we'll call it (please don't call it that). Philadelphia should have DeSean Jackson back, and even in victory the Giants weren't too impressive last week. However, this season is resembling 2006, in that the Saints and the Colts are your Super Bowl favorite, and the craziness in the NFC East. That year, the Giants started out 6-2. The Cowboys switched to Romo, and went on a 6-2 run. They had a game against the 2-13 Lions for the division and lost, and then the Eagles, who were 6-5 when Garcia took over for an injured McNabb, won the division. How does the division become crazy, a Giants win. These two teams at 8-5. Dallas at 9-4 (if my pick goes right, and even more fun 8-5 if it doesn't), with a schedule with an assured loss in six days in the Superdome. It is probably irrelevant, as in my opinion teams 1-4 in the NFC Ultimate Rankings (aka, most likely to go to Super Bowl XLIV) reside outside the NFC East (NO, ARZ, MIN, GB), but it will be alot of fun.
Eagles 17 Giants 20 (ot) (NYG)
Arizona (-3.5) @ San Francisco
Arizona is on a roll (taking away the near win with a Leinart-led team). They are 5-1 on the road, with the only blemish being the forementioned Leinart-game. (There was some 99-yd drive I'm told, but I'm hazy on the details since the wails of happiness that protruded from Dan White's mouth drowned out the memory of said game.) Arizona is just better. San Francisco has lost whatever mental capability they had to play good football. That was a terrible loss for a team that could still potentially have had division aspirations last week. That tells me that this team has checked out, a thing that coincided nicely with the checkin in of Crabtree. Funny how, without any fanfare, the Crabtree's could fall to the same record as the DHB's (Raiders) with a loss. It won't be as high-flying as the Niners can still play adequate defense to stop a hammering, but Arizona can play adequate defense to make Alex Smith cry into his tiny hands.
Cardinals 24 49ers 13 (ARZ)
Enjoy the Games.
