Lounging Pass: NFL 2023: Week 17 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "2024 Is Almost Here" Trio

32.) Carolina Panthers = 2-13 (236-381)

31.) Washington Commanders = 4-11 (309-453)
30.) Arizona Cardinals = 3-12 (275-403)

These three have separated themselves at such a low level, but let's go with some optimism in each area. First for the Panthers, Bryce Young has certainly looked better these last two weeks once Frank Reich left. The cupboard is still so barren but at least this offers some glimpse of a future. For the Commanders, next season is the real first one under new ownership without any Snyder stench left over. For the Cardinals, they could be in perfect position to get their QB of the future (assuming they don't mess things up and stick with Kyler....).

Tier II - The "Stupid QB Factory" Trio

29.) New York Giants = 5-10 (214-371)

28.) New England Patriots = 4-11 (212-322)

27.) Los Angeles Chargers = 5-10 (326-369)

This group are teams that are having to me the most hilarious QB situations. The Giants rode Tommy DeVito to 15:01 of his fifteen minutes of fame. Tyrod Taylor is less high variance and more effective, I guess, but hard to say this inspires any confidence. If any team should throw the boar at the Bears for that #1 pick (assuming the Bears don't keep it), I would think the Giants are tops of that list. For the Patriots, they are almost assuredly not getting a Top-2 pick now. There goes the weird moment where all of us laughing at them for their ineptitude would get our just desserts when tehy drafted Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. But no, turns out we can continue to laugh. For the Chargers, good on them for giving the Bills a tough game. Easton Stick has a better arm and threw with more anticipation than I would have expected. Nothing really to discuss here - Herbert will be back next year and Easton will be some fever dream fading memory.

Tier III - The "Eh, Meh, Eh" Trio

26.) New York Jets = 6-9 (231-315)

25.) Tennessee Titans = 5-10 (274-321)

24.) Chicago Bears = 6-9 (314-345)

The Jets are so weird in how they can look absolutely dominant on defense for stretches, but then their pass rush goes weirdly silent for long stretches at times. I get that this isn't Robert Saleh's MO, but they need to mix up more blitzing. For the Titans, another inspired performance in a loss. Oddly this season (and to similar degree, last year) makes me more impressed with Mike Vrabel than his playoff teams he coached in 2019-2020. They have a lot of work to do to overhaul the roster, but Vrabel can coach them up when happens. For the Bears, they've quietly been decent for two months now. Justin Fields still isn't great but good enough that it will be a really interesting discussion in Chicago on what to do with that Panthers draft pick.

Tier IV - The "Annoyingly Still In It" Quadro

23.) Atlanta Falcons = 7-8 (287-288)

22.) Las Vegas Raiders = 7-8 (285-294)

21.) Indianapolis Colts = 8-7 (354-372)
20.) Denver Broncos = 7-8 (327-377)

There is such a huge mess of teams at either 7-8 or 8-7 - fourteen of them. Literally close to half the league. I guess if you assume a fairly normal distribution then it isn't too unexpected, but man has it created a jumble that was so tough to rank. The Falcons are my worst ranked team mostly out of spite - spite towards Arthur Smith for dicking around for weeks and not feeding his trio of Top-10 picks. Spite towards some of the NFL media that overhyped this team to all end. For teh Raiders, I just hope they give Antonio Pierce that job full time. He has the defense playing as one of the Top-12 defenses in the league since he took over full time. I know that there is a long trial of interim's fizzling out quickly when given the full time role (remember Freddie Kitchens?), but he's done more than enough to deserve it. The Colts haven't totally blown their chance at teh playoffs but man did they come out so flat for that game. I can't blame Steichen, this team is way overperforming and even if they lose out, while it may harken back some 2021 memories, most expected a 5-6 win season for the Colts. Finally the Broncos - writing this after the announcement that Russell Wilson is being benched/put on ice. A sad, but not surprising, end to the Russ experiment. Interested to see where he lands, and similarly interested in what Payton tries to do next there.

Tier V - The "Middling, Middlers" Trio

19.) Cincinnati Bengals = 8-7 (318-345)

18.) Green Bay Packers = 7-8 (333-331)
17.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 8-7 (257-291)

Hey, three more 7/8 win teams! The Bengals finally saw Jake Browning turn back into a pumpkin. That may be harsh, but in reality he was awful in taht game. They have some inkling of a shot at the playoffs, but if the Jake Browning sheen is gone then we probably don't want them in the playoffs. The Packers are just a year early. Promising signs as the season progressed with Jordan Love and his connection with various skill players. For the umpteenth year the defense is not as good as it should be given the talent. Joe Barry needs to go, and Lafleur needs to get an older hand to bring some stability to that side. For teh Steelers, big win in their quest to avoid a losing season - but two tough games ahead. What is super interesting is the prospect of an 8-8 Steelers team going to Baltimore to play a 13-3 Ravens team. In that scenario they would've already clinced the #1 seed, but I'm sure many in Baltimore would want them to roll starters and take a shot at ending that streak.

Tier VI - The "QB Conundrums" Trio

16.) Houston Texans = 8-7 (328-331)
15.) Minnesota Vikings = 7-8 (314-299)

14.) New Orleans Saints = 7-8 (331-294)

All three teams have shots at teh playoffs, but QB issues that may short-circuit any chances. For the Texans, the Stroud injury I'm thinking is more the Texans being careful and patient with their rookie superstar - and probably for the best. The division is right there for them, but the long game should be their focus at this point. For the Vikings, Mullens is just too turnover prone. They still have a clear path to the playoffs, but so hard to trust them with Mullens. Really curious what they do in the offseason at QB - ride with Cousins off his achilles injury with a better than we thought roster around him, or try something else? The Saints have their starter (most of the time) in Carr but the performance just isn't there week to week, or even quarter to quarter. The rest of the team is actually quite good, and their point differential is fine, but the Carr offense has held them back at times.

Tier VII - The "Good 8-7 Teams" Quadro

13.) Seattle Seahawks = 8-7 (320-352)
12.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 8-7 (331-343)
11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 8-7 (326-302
10.) Los Angeles Rams = 8-7 (357-332)

Hey, it's four more 8-win teams. I really just can't get over how much of the league is in this bucket. Anyway, I do think these four are a cut above, though even that is probably overstating the Seahawks and Jaguars. The Seahawks have won their last two, but both required last minute comebacks. Geno being back is huge but the defense is nowhere near where it was earlier. For the Jags, four straight losses are rough. Lawrence hopefully is not out long term. They are still to me the most talented team in that division, but it isn't a shoo-in decision anymore. The Bucs ideally will win that division, as I do think they are the best and most likely to give us a competitive Wild Card game. Mayfield is playing really in structure at the moment. The Rams are not a shoo-in for the playoffs, but I too hope they get there. Aaron Donald has quietly had another great season. Stafford has just been unreal this year. Looking back, they really screwed things over by blowing games like to the Steelers. Anyway, do hope they get in.

Tier VIII - The "Joe Flacco's Moment" Uno

9.) Cleveland Browns = 10-5 (345-311)

Joe Flacco io the year of our lord 2023 doing this is insane. Was always a Flacco guy in the sense I loved his arm, liked his poise and found him a compelling character in taht 2008-2012 Ravens run that was so instrumental. I have no idea how much longer it lasts - if the Jake Browning experience is any indication maybe not too much longer, but they're basically a playoff lock at this point and seeing Flacco in a playoff game will be just wild. The defense remains excellent despite losing Delpit and that offense is good enough. Flacco's used to this type of team formula enough as well.

Tier IX - The "Super Bowl XLVII Feels So Long Ago" Trio

8.) Kansas City Chiefs = 9-6 (333-265)
7.) Philadelphia Eagles = 11-4 (392-366)

Oh, wasn't it just yesterday these two played in a super competitive Super Bowl with all units playing well and generally seeming a level above. The Eagles had a semi get-right, and the Chiefs are still going to win that division, but how so much has changed? For teh Chiefs, the offense is just very much a problem - all the issues that cropped up the very first week have not been solved. They're plainly average at this point. Lucky for them the defense has been legitimately very good this season. The upside is still there. Same for the Eagles - the upside is there. On their good drives they look dominant. It's just the scatter-shot nature that is not helping. hey should be able to be far more consistent.

Tier X - The "Second Level Contenders" Quadro

6.) Buffalo Bills = 9-6 (403-276)

5.) Detroit Lions = 11-4 (412-355)

4.) Dallas Cowboys = 10-5 (451-286)
3.) Miami Dolphins = 11-4 (463-314)

I wouldn't be shocked if any of these four win the Super Bowl. Granted, I wouldn't pick them necessarily, but these are the next set behind the two in the next group that have separated themselves. The Bills have gone from being 11th in the AFC two weeks ago to being alone in 6th and with a fairly reasonable chance to clinch a playoff spot this week (just need Steelers and Bengals losses). The Lions offense really has come to life once Ragnow came back. The defense can be had, but they are the one offense I think can outscore the 49ers. The Cowboys have looked a bit fallow the last two weeks, but let's give them a bit of a break losing two road games to good teams. Granted, they'll need to play various road games in the playoffs, but I still (stupidly) believe. Finally with Miami, this is more about getting a good deal of comfortability and trust with their defense at this point - especially a reborn pass rush this last few weeks. That defense can overcome an offense that has, we all have to admit, been slowed down effectively by basically any good defense it has played against.

Tier XI - The "Let's Play it Twice" Duo

2.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-4 (444-267)
1.) Baltimore Ravens = 12-3 (417-244)

Yes, the Ravens won that game rather imposingly, but the 49ers still moved the ball well at times. It was surprising to see their OL rocked as consistently as the Ravens got to them. The Ravens offense was able to commit to the run, but I do worry about their tackle situation, as it is clear this Ronnie Stanley is not, and never will be, the super All-Pro that he was prior to his injury. Not surprising I guess that this is the case. Anyway, as for these two teams, to me they are the clear best two in the NFL this season. I would very much welcome a Super Bowl between them, fully expecting it to be more competitive than this one was.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Baltimore Ravens = 14-3

2.) Buffalo Bills = 11-6

3.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-6

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 10-7

5.) Cleveland Browns = 11-6

6.) Miami Dolphins = 11-6

7.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-7

NFC

1.) San Francisco 49ers = 13-4

2.) Philadelphia Eagles = 13-4