NFL 2020: Week 4 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the 0-3 (0-2-1) Teams

8.) New York Jets  =  37-94

7.) New York Giants  =  38-79

6.) Denver Broncos  =  45-70

5.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  66-74

4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  75-102

3.) Houston Texans  =  57-95

2.) Atlanta Falcons  =  90-108

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  59-87

Ranking the 1-2 Teams

8.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  70-84

7.) Washington Football Team  =  62-81

6.) Detroit Lions  =  70-92

5.) Carolina Panthers  =  68-81

4.) Miami Dolphins  =  70-65

3.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  52-57

2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  88-97

1.) New Orleans Saints  =  88-94

Ranking the 2-1 Teams

9.) Cleveland Browns  =  75-88

8.) Arizona Cardinals  =  77-61

7.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  88-90

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  82-61

5.) San Francisco 49ers  =  87-46

4.) New England Patriots  =  87-66

3.) Indianapolis Colts  =  84-45

2.) Los Angeles Rams  =  89-71

1.) Baltimore Ravens  =  91-56

Ranking the 3-0 Teams

7.) Chicago Bears  =  74-62

6.) Tennessee Titans  =  80-74

5.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  80-58

4.) Seattle Seahawks  =  111-86

3.) Green Bay Packers  =  122-85

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  93-77

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  91-60

Looking Ahead to Next Weeks Games

16.) Denver Broncos (0-3)  @  New York Jets (0-3)  (TNF - NFLN)

15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) New York Giants (0-3)  @  Los Angeles Rams (2-1)  (4:05 - FOX)

13.) Seattle Seahawks (3-0)  @  Miami Dolphins (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1)  @  Washington Football Team (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Arizona Cardinals (2-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

10.) Philadelphia Eagles (0-3)  @  San Francisco 49ers (2-1)  (SNF - NBC)

9.) Cleveland Browns (2-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

7.) New Orleans Saints (1-2)  @  Detroit Lions (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

6.) Minnesota Vikings (0-3)  @  Houston Texans (0-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Atlanta Falcons (0-3)  @  Green Bay Packers (3-0)  (MNF - ESPN)

4.) Buffalo Bills (3-0)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (2-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)  @  Tennessee Titans (3-0)  (1:00 CBS)

2.) Indianapolis Colts (2-1)  @  Chicago Bears (3-0)  (1:00 - CBS)

1.) New England Patriots (2-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (2-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

The Lightning's Long Wait is Over

Back in 2015, a young, dynamic Tampa Bay Lightning team made the Stanley Cup Final. They weren't some happy-go-lucky team. They had 110 points, they led the NHL in scoring. They had two great superstars entering their prime in Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman - both 24. They had a truly great second line with players 21, 23 and 24 (Kucherov, Palat and Johnson). They were deep, fast, and extremely skilled. I thought they would win that final against an aging Chicago Blackhawks team. It was something of a passing of the torch. But somehow the Blackhawks stole a few games, and took the series. It was supposed to be the start of something great in Tampa. It was - it just took a while to get the silverware.

This past five years of the NHL has been defined by teams that had been contenders for a number of years finally breaking through. First it was the Penguins in 2016 (admittedly, they won in 2009). Then the Capitals, in maybe the most enthralling, cathartic breakthrough, won in 2018. The Blues won it last year. Finally it gets capped with a Tampa team that was as talented as that group - had been on the losing end of some of those runs (both the 2016 Penguins and 2018 Capitals beat the Lightning in the Conference Finals). Tampa truly deserved it, and given the ages of some of their core, they might not be done quite yet.

The Lightning seemed destined for this moment, but like the Capitals before them, the road here was a slog. The year after the Cup loss, they had a rough, uneven year, sneaking into the playoffs in a weak division, but then took fire. The player who rose up that season was a 25-year old Victor Hedman, truly coming into his own that year. Those playoffs, Steven Stamkos had a heart issue that kept him out of most of it. Hedman took on the role of the de-facto Captain, taking his team on his back to some degree, to a 3-2 lead in the Conference Final. It wasn't enough, Pittsburgh took the last two games.

In 2018, the Lightning were a truly great team, 113 points (tops in the East), 296 goals - most in eight years. They were reaching their apex - easily handling the Devils and Bruins (a 110-point team themselves) in the playoffs. Then the Capitals snuck one out - once again winning the last two games when down 3-2 in teh Conference Finals.

Of course, we all know last year. Unparalleled regular season success with 128 points, 325 goals. Three with 90 points. Hedman with another stellar year. Andrei Vasilevsky won the Vezina. Then they were swept - and not only swept, but done so with embarrassing aplomb. First, they blew a 3-0 lead in the first game. Then Kucherov got suspended. Then Hedman re-injured his ankle. It was truly terrible. It should have hurt this team long-term. It did for a bit with a slow start to the season - then they hit their stride.... and then Covid hit.

The Lightning made it look easy year after year in the regular season, but never did in the playoffs. So it is fitting when they finally win, they do so in a bubble, with no fans, in isolation, in the toughest way possible.

The Lightning are a team full of great stories - not too surprising given perennial 'we got so close' type teams generally get empathized over time (take the Capitals). It starts with the man who got the Cup first. Steven Stamkos is an electric player, but his body has failed him time and time again. Sometimes not of his doing (breaking his leg at the Olympics in 2014, a blood clot issue in 2016). Sometimes it was wear and tear. He is beloved by his time, more or less so by the NHL community. He has been a rousing Captain and it was truly great to see him lace up twice this series, first to score a goal on one of his three shifts (and my God, what a shot) and finally to lift the Cup.

The guy who took it second is right there in Victor Hedman. He was drafted #2 the year after Stamkos went #1, and immediately the two were poised to take over. It took a while for Hedman to fully develop, but he's been the best defensemen over the past five seasons, and is squarely in line for the Hall of Fame. He was dominant throughout the playoffs, and while he was so desserving of the Conn Smyth, seeing him break down carrying the Cup was awesome to see.

The Lightning still have a decently long runway left. Kucherov and Point have taken on and now exceeded the Stamkos-sized position of leading the offense. Guys like Sergachev and Cernak are ready to up their game as players like McDonagh slow down (Hedman, I assume, will be a swedish Adonis for years to come). Vasilevsky is still young and extremely dependable. Jon Cooper's steady hand survived a bunch of rough waves and should comandeer MS Lightning for years to come.

The whole bubble experience was incredible. Such a credit needs to be given for the NHL and they way they handled it. The two bubbles kept, they never had issues. Sure it was tough on players, but ultimately they created an environment for players to care, for fans to get their wish and for the cup to get awarded. They created an in-arena atmosphere that worked fairly well. They did their job - the Lightning (and other teams) did the rest.

The Lightning leave the bubble with the hardware, something they so richly deserved. Stamkos and Hedman likely locked up their place in the Hall of Fame. The Lightning play with such an open, fun, connected style. They 'grit' players they brought in like Patrick Maroon, Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman perfectly complemented then innate skill their top end has. It was a perfect fit. The Lightning were a perfect fit - finally.

NFL 2020: Week 3 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the 0-2 Teams

The "This is not going to plan" Duo

11.) New York Jets  =  30-58

10.) Carolina Panthers  =  47-65

These two are just very bad teams, made worse in Carolina's case with the injury to McCaffery. Quickly on 'Lina - how long before someone asks around regret for letting Cam go? The Panthers run defense is so porous it will hard for them to come close to keeping up without McCafferry to spell some time and give the defense relief. As for the Jets - well they make the Panthers rush defense look good. That was embarrassing. The offense is embarrassing. Them continuing to employ Adam Gase, a man who unreletingly failed upwards, is embarrassing than anything else.

The "We have something here" Uno

9.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  43-51

The defense is not good. AJ Green looks like he's finally aged (can't blame him the mess he's been through). But they have something in Joe Burrow. He was great on Thursday - throwing 60 times without ever losing focus or tiring. He wasn't perfect. No rookie is, but he looked in command of an offense, was able to come back after a slow start and keep them very much in the game. An empty Cleveland arena is not going to be the most challenging of environments, but so far he's been very competent in both games.

The "Injuries suck, Pt. 1" Duo

8.) Denver Broncos  =  35-42

7.) New York Giants  =  29-43

Injuries were the story of yesterday (aside from maybe the story of the host of great games). Both of these teams are really feeling it. The Broncos lost Drew Lock for six weeks, and star WR Cortland Sutton for the year (one of the many, many ACL tears). Somehow they still came within shouting distance of beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh - but you have to think they'll struggle in the immediate future. For the Giants, I still lik the team - no shame is losing by ten yards in Chicago. I still think Daniel Jones is a fine QB. But losing Saquon just sucks - forget what it means for Jones and the Giants, but losing such a fantastic, dynamic player is just painful.

The "This is really not going according to plan" Duo

6.) Minnesota Vikings  =  45-71

5.) Detroit Lions  =  44-69

Remember all those people riding the Lions bandwagon before the season. Ultimately, however much we think Stafford may have turned a corner, and the offensive weapons could be great, it won't overcome the fact that Matt Patricia is just a disaster at head coach. An abject disaster. I'm loathe to blame the Lions too much for firing Jim Caldwell (who had back-to-back 9-7 seasons), because no one thought he was great. But Patricia is very, very obviously not the answer. For the Vikings, they went from having a horrible offseason to becoming a last minute sleeper - apparently getting Yannick Ngokwaue doesn't fix all your problems. The OL is a disaster and the offense is totally toothless without Diggs.

The "Just play Tua already" Uno

4.) Miami Dolphins  =  39-52

Seriously, just play him. The Dolphins aren't that bad. The 10-point loss to New England looks a bit better in retrospect, adn they played the Bills tough, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is fairly aimless option when you have a rookie QB you would like to start playing. Tua should be given his chance this year.

The "Sometimes we can't let go" Trio

3.) Houston Texans  =  36-67
2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  36-64

1.) Atlanta Falcons  =  64-78

So all these three teams have been bad - granted Atlanta is a onside kick recovery away from 1-1. But those first two have been very bad. Maybe it's the Bayes in me to not immediatley disavow teams I thought would be good. The Eagles are tough to read because their defense has been surprisingly putried (and yes, I know Wentz has been very hit or miss also). The OL got a lot better with Lane Johnson back which should help. No one is running away with that division likely. For the Texans before we pour sand on them, let's remember they had to play the Chiefs and Ravens, and didn't embarrass themselves in either game. Yes, they are a class below those two, but so are most teams.

Ranking the 1-1 Teams

The "Aww, that's Cute" Trio

10.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  57-53

9.) Cleveland Browns  =  41-68

8.) Washington Redskins  =  42-47

I'll give the Jags credit, that Minshew offense might have some lasting power. His chemistry with some of the receivers is quite good. I don't buy it over the long term, especially if they have any pace of injuries. For the Browns, good win, but struggling to beat Joe Burrow on the road is not enough to make me consider them fixed. It was great to see Mayfield stick to the pocket for once however. The Redskins have a great defense - amazing how quick Ron Rivera has turned that into a potentially dominant pass rush. That offense is just not there yet - I like some of what Haskins is doing and he admittedly has zero to work with.

The "Herbert-Time" Uno

7.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  36-36

I don't really watch college football outside of the biggest games, so I had never watched Justin Herbert. All I know is he is someone who probably gets drafted higher in 2019 than he did this year. But maybe those guys that slip a bit are generally just as good as people thought, just we get more time to pick them apart. Herbert was great in this, a game he found out he was starting just a few minutes before it started. He was poised, showed little of the accuracy concerns that hounded him in the pre-draft season. The defense is still quite good, and with Herbert and a soft middle of the AFC, they might just have enough for a run.

The "Oh yeah, it's the Super Bowl Loser curse" Uno

6.) San Francisco 49ers  =  51-37

The Garoppolo injury isn't as bad as feared, so in a sense maybe there is some hope here, but losing Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas in teh same game, along with Raheem Mostert for some period of time, after already losing a winnable first game against Arizona, is not a good start. The run offense is still great, and the team is deep enough to tread water for a while. In that division though, treading water may not be enough. Suddenly, saying the 49ers will finish last is not just reasonable, it might be the most likely outcome.

The "They're lucky the NFC South is not deep" Duo

5.) New Orleans Saints  =  58-57

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  54-51

Two weeks in, it seems clear that the Saints have as many troubles as the Bucs. Brees looks shot - or at least they're playcalling like that is the case. Rarely is he even looking downfield - though when he does it looks fine. If anything, Brees's accuracy is more disturbing, missing routine throws. For Brady, lets just say I'm not surprised people have already set the bar low enough that a 23-35 day with less than 10 ypc, with 1-1 TD-INT against a bad defense is seen like a great result. Either way, what should in theory still help these two teams are their defenses. The Bucs coverage is still messy, but hte pass rush and rush defense are both continuing off of strong seasons in 2019. For the Saints, they'll need to hope that performance against Oakland says more about the quality of the Raiders offense vs. the quality of their own defense. Coverage issues may return to being a serious concern in New Orleans.

The "Turning Point or more of the same" Uno

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  57-59

I have no idea still how the Cowboys won that game. I do know their offense was great - when it wasn't fumbling - and it should remain great. But we only have to go back to Week 1 to see an offense that was less than the sum of its parts - a hallmark of the Garrett era. In Week 2 they were basically as good as the sum. The pass pro needs Collins and Smith back asap, but the receiver group is special. The defense is still average but seems to be nicely settling in to a 20-27 points allowed a week groove (this being 39 largely due to short fields). Given the state of the NFC East they're the clear favorites two weeks in, but I can't get over the feeling they're always a bit less than the sum of the parts.

The "It ain't Manning/Brady or even Luck/Brady, but...." Duo

2.) Indianapolis Colts  =  48-38

1.) New England Patriots  =  51-46

Oh the Colts and Pats, like old times. Let's start with the Colts who dominated a pass offense in a way that shouldn't be possible in 2020. Deforest Buckner was a monster. Leonard remains a monster. The secondary was OK, but losing Hooker will hurt. Rivers arm looks fine but I wonder if Reich will remain gun-shy after the interception-o-rama in Week 1 kept this team from a clean 2-0 start. For the Pats, well, we all thought the defense was going to regress - lucky for them, the offense is better. That's right, so far the 2020 Cam-led Pats offense looks outright better than teh 2019 Brady version did. Cam looks sharp, throwing with a zip that is reminiscent of 2017-18. Edelman is getting unleashed in ways he never did with Brady (not a bad thing, just a different thing). The defense probably will not have a game that bad, and while Cam may not have a game that good, I expect we'll see a willingness to just let him unleash in a way eh didn't do at all in Week 1.

Ranking the 2-0 Teams

The "Maybe start building up that bandwagon boyz" Trio

11.) Arizona Cardinals  =  54-35

10.) Chicago Bears  =  44-38

9.) Tennessee Titans  =  49-44

The Cardinals fast start is fun, but I still worry they're a bit too Kyler run and Hopkins dependent. The defense has been better than I expected but how much of that is a off 49ers team and the Washington group? The Bears are in a similar vein, coming a drop by the Lions and a missed Goal-to-Go by the Giants from being 0-2. Trubisky has been decent, but how much of that shine is the record. For the Titans, the positives are Tannehill continuing to be composed and accurate - developing a slightly better rapport with Corey Davis - but that defense is extremely high variance which could hurt them, especially if Henry continues to slip in form.

The "Honestly, they're good but there's a lot of good 2-0 teams this year" Duo

8.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  68-54

7.) Buffalo Bills  =  58-45

The Raiders and Bills are swimming in the success of their QBs that have had to answer questions. What helps the Bills more is their defense is great - not yet ready to change that view with one meh performance in Miami. For the Raiders, the defense is garbage (Clelin Ferrell is no better in Year 2, but surprising to see Maxx Crosby so quiet so far), but I trust Carr and the offense more than Allen and the Bills. It would be good for Carr to start developing a better rapport with his receivers so they're not dependent on 16 targets a game for Darren Waller. For the Bills, the offense with Diggs has been a revelation. Their ceiling is far higher if this level is remotely what he will be doing the rest of the season. Just want a few more weeks to see it.

The "Whole is less than the sum of its parts" Uno

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  52-37

The Steelers have been impressive play-to-play, but surprisingly good-not-great in an overall sense. Tons of sacks, a dominant running defense, Roethlisberger doing his things. Tons of WRs running wild. All of that great. But then again they were a goal-line pick from having a thorny game against the Giants, and one drive away from losing to the Broncos. It matters that they didn't lose (bank the wins) and it matters that they were able to on a down-by-down basis dominate, but this was not a 2-0 start devoid of potential issues.

The "Sign me the eff up for NFC West 2020" Duo

5.) Seattle Seahawks  =  73-55

4.) Los Angeles Rams  =  57-36

The Rams in the Jeff Fisher days were constant annoyances for the Seahawks, consistently able to pressure Wilson, pull off some special teams BS, and steal a game here or there. Then in 2017-18, the Rams were just a lot better than Seattle. It flipped last year. The Seahawks in the Carroll era had their run-ins with the Cardinals (2015) and 49ers (2012-2013, 2019), so it would be nice to have both of these two at their best at the same time. Wilson has been incredible - you have to figure that cools off a bit. Will be interesting to see them against teams with better pass rushes. For the Rams, seeing the Goff/McVay offense resemble 2017-18 again is so much fun. The defense under Brandon Staley has been great so far. It seems we all overreacted a bit to a 9-7 'down' season.

The "Sleeping Giant has awoken" Uno

3.) Green Bay Packers  =  85-55

43 in Week 1. 42 in Week 2. It was Aaron Rodgers with a destroyer of worlds performance in Week 1, and now Aaron Jones with a masterpiece in Week 2. The Packers defense has been surprisngly leaky, but that offense has been incredible through two weeks. They will slow down - and Rodgers still has a bit of panicky throwing into the ground in him every now and then, but the Packers are looking like a fully locked in team, and doing well adjusting even better to Matt Lafleur's offense in year 2.

2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  71-22

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  57-40

It's almost annoying that these two have to play so soon. It would have been nicer if we could get a good 10-1 v 10-1 type matchup, but man o man give me Lamar v. Mahomes. The Ravens have been incredibly dominant through two games. Even a slow offensive day for them is Lamar going for 2 TDs at nearly 9 ypa. The OL didn't look great, so that is one weakness for the Chiefs to attack. For the Chiefs, they overcame a slow start but I think Anthony Lynn and the Chargers just have a pretty good read on that offense. Mahomes was still absurd late in the game, and for now since they haven't yet lost, the Champs stay the Champs.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) San Francisco 49ers (1-1)  @  New York Giants (0-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

15.) Detroit Lions (0-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (2-0)  (4:25 - FOX)

14.) New York Jets (0-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Carolina Panthers (0-2)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)  (4:05 - CBS)

12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)  @  Denver Broncos (0-2)  (4:25 - FOX) 

11.) Tennessee Titans (2-0)  @  Minnesota Vikings (0-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

10.) Chicago Bears (2-0)  @  Atlanta Falcons (0-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 - CBS)

8.) Houston Texans (0-2)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0)  (1:00 - CBS)

7.) Miami Dolphins (0-2)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)  (TNF - NFLN)

6.) Washington Football Team (1-1)  @  Cleveland Browns (1-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
5.) Las Vegas Raiders (2-0)  @  New England Patriots (1-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

4.) Dallas Cowboys (1-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (2-0)  (4:25 - FOX)

3.) Los Angeles Rams (2-0)  @  Buffalo Bills (2-0)  (1:00 - FOX)

2.) Green Bay Packers (2-0)  @  New Orleans Saints (1-1)  (SNF -  NBC)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)  @  Baltimore Ravens (2-0)  (MNF - ESPN)

NFL 2020: Week 2 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the 0-1 Teams

The "Hey We Thought they were Bad, and they are Bad" Trio

16.) New York Jets  (17-27)

15.) Miami Dolphins  (11-21)

14.) Cleveland Browns  (6-38)

I honestly think compared to most Week 1s of recent years, the 2020 version had the least surprises. In isolation there's a few of them, but on the whole mostly what we expected to happen, happened. And with these three teams - maybe with the exception of the Browns - it came to pass in a big way. The Jets were an absolute mess, totally flattered by that score. It wasn't even Darnold to me so much as the rest of the roster just falling apart. Miami is also flattered by that score - with the dreaded fumble through the end zone costing the Pats another TD. If they switch to Tua, they become more interesting for sure. With the Browns, chances are that is the worst game they play, but after playing the Ravens fairly close last year, they seemed lost. The Stefanski type of offense needs controlled mobility from a QB; not whatever the hell it was that Mayfield was doing. I do worry he's too far gone at this point.

The "Intriguing Signs.... But Probably Not" Duo

13.) Cincinnati Bengals  (13-16)

12.) Carolina Panthers  (30-34)

Joe Burrow looked fine, and the decision not to trade away AJ Green maybe is shortsighted, but gives Burrow a dependable, great weapon - even an aged one. The Bengals defense played fine as well. They might be frisky, and already seem like a more reasonable 3rd place team than the Browns do. The Panthers rush defense is absolutely putrid, but the offense under Bridgewater is doing a decent 2017 Cam impression, with McCaffery still as a superstar. In the end, their faults (general lack of premier talent for Bengals, glaring holes for Carolina) will almost certainly undo them, but for one week there were some intriguing signs.

The "I'm going to regret taking positives out of that game" Uno

11.) New York Giants  (16-26)

Ok, this might look really bad in a few weeks, but I was to some degree impressed by the Giants yesterday. They were overwhelmed in the first half aside from the couple plays leading to and through the TD pass. But in the second half, starting with that monster 19-play drive, their offense looked good. Daniel Jones looked poised, and far more importantly, looked accurate. He and Slayton have a great chemistry. The rush offense, and more pointedly OLine was a disaster, but maybe it is the Steelers are just phenomenal up front. The defense was decent, pressuring Roethlisberger constantly, and varying between great coverage and too-soft coverage. I just think the Steelers are really good, and they hung with them decently well - it could have looked a lot of different if Jones threw it away instead of a goal-line pick.

The "Let's not overreact to Week 1" Trio

10.) Detroit Lions  (23-27)

9.) Houston Texans  (20-34)

8.) Denver Broncos  (14-16)

It's almost become cliche to say not to overreact to Week 1 results, but it is so true and remains so in 2020. I think the stat is generally 4-6 teams make the playoffs each year after losing their first game. For the Lions, they've almost given back all the mindless goodwill and praise that was thrown at them with twenty putrid minutes, but maybe let's credit them for 40 good ones prior to that. If not for a Falcons-in-Super-Bowl set of mistakes (sack leading to missed field goal, interception when trying to burn the clock) they win. For the Broncos, in some degree they got lucky Gostkowski had a night from hell, but they also were stoned at the goal line. It was a decent performance and the defense showed it still has strengths even after losing Miller. For the Texans - to me its just they played a far better team and lost, but acquitted themselves decently. The Watson offense looked better than I expected without Nuk and still with a lousy O-line. I personally don't see any of these as playoff teams (admittedly, I did with Denver until the Miller injury).

The "Seriously, please don't overreact to Week 1" Trio

7.) Minnesota Vikings  (34-43)

6.) Philadelphia Eagles  (17-27)

3.) Atlanta Falcons  (25-38)

Now these were three playoff teams that looked various levels of dreadful to me. The Vikings basically slept for a half and when they woke up it was too late. But also they got scorched by Rodgers having one of those days against a very green set of corners. You have to expect this is a low watermark for the Vikings defense, and the offense was still good without Diggs. The Eagles were a mess. That OL should get better when Lane Johnson gets back, but the loss of Brooks is huge. Wentz (or Pederson's game plan) needs to start focusing on shorter passing given the protections issues that will linger. The Falcons defense for the hundredth year in a row is a mess, but the offense is still good and much like Minnesota just ran into a buzzsaw that might be better than we all realized in Seattle.

The "But maybe you should if the QB is aged" Duo

4.) Indianapolis Colts  (20-27)

3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (23-34)

So maybe we can see these both as 'don't overreact' type results as well, but given Rivers is 39, and Brady is 43, and both had multiple mental gaffes to me they're a bit different. They're similar in a way with older QBs plugged around decent skill position players (Indy with a better OL, Tampa with better weapons), and both those QBs made huge errors. Rivers are more pointed because the game was closer, but with Brady the game wans't close beacuse of those issues. I don't think its necessarily an arm strength thing (wait till we get to Mr. Brees) but both players pocket presence and strength in the pocket has fallen way off - Rivers wasn't great to begin with. This is a problem.

The "The more things change, the more they stay the same" Uno

2.) Dallas Cowboys  (17-20)

Other than the fact Jason Garrett probably doesn't go for that ill-fated 4th down attempt, this so easily could have been so many different losses in the Garrett era: nice stats, no glaring issues, but in the end it doesn't translate. Prescott was fine, no one turned it over, Zeke was nearly 5.0 ypc. All good things. Somehow with Dallas that always results in less points than you expect. This is still not a great division seemingly, and maybe the Rams are better than we all think. But for this idea the Cowboys were a losing-Jason-Garrett away from being some Chiefs type offense certainly doesn't seem the case.

The "Super Bowl Hangover, is it a thing again?" Uno

1.) San Francisco 49ers  (20-24)

For years, the Super Bowl loser curse was a thing, starting with the 2001 Rams not making the playoffs the next year. It was five more years until the loser made the playoffs again - and it was just barely with the 2006 Seahawks going 9-7. But then things seemed to change, starting with the 2009 Cardinals (10-6) with the '10 Colts (10-6), '11 Steelers (12-4), '12 Pats (12-4), '13 49ers (12-4), '14 Broncos (12-4), '15 Seahawks (10-6) all doing well. It crested with the 2018 Pats winning the Super Bowl. But last year, the Rams faced all the year-after challenges that befixed those old 2000s Super Bowl losers, and maybe the same happens here. Garappolo is still not great and there may be tension if the offense continues to suffer. The real issue to me was their defense not really showing up - giving up 400 yards for the first time to a team aside from Brees in the Superdome last year. Maybe it's nothing but the Super Bowl hangover was a thing for a long time, and the signs are there.

Ranking the 1-0 Teams

The "Aww, that's Cute" Duo

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (27-20)

15.) Washington Football Team  (27-17)

So here we have two teams that were supposed to compete for the first overall pick - maybe not so much the Redskins, but definitely the Jaguars. And what do you know? They both won. It isn't so uncommon the teams we all think will stink win their first game - often times they end up being who we thought they were. Have to think that is true here. The Jaguars aren't going to have Minshew go 19-20 ever again - and even then they were outgained 2:1. The Redskins aren't going to have 8 sacks again - well, maybe in a Rivera defense they will... 

The "Hey, you never know?" Quadro

14.) Chicago Bears  (27-23)

13.) Arizona Cardinals  (24-20)

12.) Los Angeles Chargers  (16-13)

11.) Las Vegas Raiders  (34-30)

These teams probably won't make the playoffs, but you never know. The Bears really should have lost that game, and if that is a 'good' Trubisky performance, they are in real deep shit. The Cardinals may have the most upside in this group, but I don't trust anything aside from Kyler and Hopkins, and didn't find their game-planning too inspiring. The Chargers can squeak out 7-8 wins with their great defense (assuming it doesn't get ravaged by injuries) and Taylor putting up his 17-21 points a week. The Raiders have a very good offense, but their defense is still a mess up front. That won't change, but it could work.

The "Bank Them Wins" Duo

10.) Tennessee Titans  (16-14)
9.) Los Angeles Rams  (20-17)

I don't know how good these teams are, but they may be good. All we know is they got a win, against a decent team. The Titans impressed me quite a bit - especially if you give them the 10 points taht Gostkowski cost them (seriously, how?). Tannehill looked great against what is left of the Broncos pass rush. He won't put up the ludicrous numbers of last year, but the Tannehill we saw on Monday is plenty good enough. The Rams only scored 20 points, but it seemed a lot like the Rams of 2018 - tempo, motion, Goff throwing to wide open players. The defense looked fine without the players they lost. I think the Cowboys are really good, so that win probably will look better and better.

The "Great AFC East Race" Duo

8.) Buffalo Bills  (27-17)

7.) New England Patriots  (21-11)

Oh man this is going to be fun. It is weird - maybe I'll write a story about it one day - that my love for Cam is overtaking my hatred for New England. Or maybe it is me knowing that it was about hating Brady all along. Anyway, the Cam Patriots were a joy to watch, because Cam is a joy to watch. What they are doing, shortening games, trusting a defense, using Cam at his best. In a weird way, these are two absolutely simialr teams - given Josh Allen's proclivity to run. The Bills are 1-53 more talented, and they have a coaching a staff that can make the most out of them. The problem is the Patriots have the better QB - as long as Cam is healthy - and an even better coach. The AFC East race will be fun for the first time since Rex Ryan at his peak.

The "So we're all going to decide not to talk about it...." Uno

6.) New Orleans Saints  (34-23)

They won the game, and the defense looked great, but I feel like a lot of people are tiptoeing around how awful Brees looked. I don't know if his arm his shot - the few times he threw deep it looked OK - but I know that it seems Payton thinks that way. The amount of short, quick throws. The amount of screens. The amount of little dink passes. The abject fear to let Brees cut it loose. I am getting a lot of 2015 Manning flashbacks, or at the very least late-season 2014 Manning. Thankfully for them that defense looks excellent.

The "It's like the good ol' days" Trio

5.) Seattle Seahawks  (38-25)

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (26-16)

3.) Green Bay Packers  (43-34)

It just feels right when the teams that have been good for a long time just stay good. The Seahawks and Packers may not end up being that great, but if their QBs play anywhere close to how they played in that game. The Packers defense was a mess, but their upside is still high if Jaire Alexander, Kenny Clark and the Smith's play the way they have been. For the Steelers, as I've already said I think we're underestimating the Giants, and their performacne was great. Especially the Steelers run defense just killing Saquon and Co. Roethlisberger's arm looked great, just a little off the mark with his throwing rhythm. Figure that will improve.

The "Great AFC Race" Duo

2.) Baltimore Ravens  (38-6)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  (34-20)

Best two teams last year (and yes, I mean what I say) are still the best two seemingly. The Ravens played better in Week 1, just dominating the Browns in every way. Lamar was brilliant - as he almsot always is - without even running it this time. But the champs stay the champs, with a defense that is still good when it needs to be, in an aggressive, high-variance way, that complements a dominant offense nicely. We were spoiled a Chiefs @ Ravens title game last year (thanks Derrick Henry), and I so hope we don't have it spoiled again this time.

Looking ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) San Francisco 49ers (0-1)  @  New York Jets (0-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

15.) Buffalo Bills (1-0)  @  Miami Dolphins (0-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-0)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Carolina Panthers (0-1)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 - FOX)

12.) New York Giants (0-1)  @  Chicago Bears (1-0)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)  (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Baltimore Ravens (1-0)  @  Houston Texans (0-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

9.) Cleveland Browns (0-1)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)  (TNF - NFLN)

7.) Washington Redskins (1-0)  @  Arizona Cardinals (1-0)  (4:05 - FOX)

6.) Detroit Lions (0-1)  @  Green Bay Packers (1-0)  (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Minnesota Vikings (0-1)  @  Indianapolis Colts (0-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

4.) Atlanta Falcons (0-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (0-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

3.) New Orleans Saints (1-0)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (1-0)  (MNF - ESPN)

2.) Los Angeles Rams (1-0)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

1.) New England Patriots (1-0)  @  Seattle Seahawks (1-0)  (SNF - NBC)

Nole's Boner

 An incredible sports moment happened over the weekend. Novak Djokovic, the world's best tennis player, a man who was looking to cruise to his 18th slam, pulling one behind Nadal, two behind Federer (the closest he has ever come to either), was defaulted. He was disqualified, banished from the Big Apple Bubble, for hitting a lineswoman with an errant shot in frustration. It was cut and dry, but it was also so amazing to watch this scene play out.

As it happened, I was having friends visit my condo for the first time. It's mostly furnished and ready, aside from a glaring lack of WiFi. To compensate, my friends and I hooked up my smart tv through his work-phone hotstop, and started watching the Bucks playoff game. I luckily checked my phone to see the Djokovic score, and realized that Pablo Carreno Busta was about to serve for the set. So I switched over, and instead we saw witness to one of the most bizarre moments in sports history.

We turned on the Djokovic match right after the incident happened, and we saw Djokovic speaking to the umpire and tournament officials. Then we saw the clip. Immediately, we started thinking what the penalty would be - would it be a point penalty? Would it be a game penalty, giving Carreno Busta the first set? Very soon, we realized it is something bigger, something more impactful. The term 'default' was mentioned. We couldn't believe it. Even after being repeatedly told by the commentators that it is a black and white rule with little wiggle room, it was still hard to comprehend.

Let's get this out of the way. they were absolutely right to default Djokovic. While it was clearly an accident, it was an accident of luck (the fact the ball hit the lineswoman), but not of intent. When you ping a ball towards the back, you run that risk. I will say I am surprised no credence was given to who this man was: the number one player, by far the biggest draw in the tournament with Nadal skipping and Federer out injured. I'll give the tennis world a lot of credit for that.

When we get past that fact, I do want to talk a bit about what this means in the bigger picture. As mentioned earlier, Djokovic had a clear path to another US Open Title (his 4th) and an 18th major period. There is such a ridiculous GOAT race going on, and ultimately it seems it will just come down to who ends up at top of that list. Nadal has a great chance of picking up his 20th, tying him with Federer, in a months time at the end of the French. This was a career changing default/loss for Novak.

In that vein, I'll give Novak a whole host of credit for his reaction. Yes, he escaped without doing media. That's fine. Ding him on that. But also credit him for amazing composure on the court. He barely argued, almost immediately accepted his fate. You have to imagine there was some significant pleading for clemency. But he never got animated, never got heated. I honestly think any tennis player I can think of reacts more strongly and negatively to that moment - be it Serena, Nadal, Federer, Sampras. Anyone. Literally you are kicking a guy out of one o the biggest four tournaments, doing it for an obvious unlucky mistake. I'll give never ending credit to Djokovic for taking it in stride.

That said, it's almost too on the nose for this to happen to Djokovic after the year he's been having. He was undefeated for the season prior to this match (admittedly, in far, far, far fewer matches than that statement would make you think). But aside from the on court success, the year has been a disaster. Djokovic came out openly as an anti-vaxxer in April (saying he wouldn't want to be forced to take a Covid-19 vaccine if its required by the tour). Then he hosted a tournament/bash in Serbia without any social distancing restrictions, openly flouting it with partying in Belgrade clubs. He tested positives, dozens of others did (including Nikola Jokic of all people). Then to add to it all, he broke with teh ATP, trying to spearhead a players-only Union, which isn't on its face a bad idea, but he did it going rogue with a few players.

Forgot about all that though. The real reason this is so hilariously wicked that it happened to Djokovic is that he's always been the unloved genius. He's every bit the equal to Nadal and Federer. You can make convincing arguments he's better than them. He has a good shot of acclaiming GOAT status, something unthinkable at the start of this decade. But it is that start of the decade view of Djokovic that he's never shed. The complainer, the in-match retirer, the slightly too cocky attitude. Those early-career issues have plagued Djokovic ever since, even as he reformed himself starting with his dominant 2011 run.

Djokovic has never been able to gain the acceptance that Nadal and Federer did, be it fan support, the awe and acclimation from the tennis world. People have never embraced Djokovic as they should have, and he's spent a lot of time trying to understand why. He never has been able to figure it out, and this incident won't help.

As a Nadal fan, I'm of course pleased to Djokovic stalled for a moment at 17 slams. Even aside from that aspect, getting a chance to give a non-Big-3 player a slam win is huge. Guys like Thiem & Medvedev (the #2 and #3 seeds, in-line to meet in the semis) have gone toe-to-toe with legends. The last two slams that were played, they lost to Djokovic and Nadal respectively, each in five sets. They are right there, and the boost of confidence of a major win can set them off. We've been waiting for the next generation to get a scalp, and this is their chance.

In the end, it is a surreal moment; something that cut through college football opening weekend and playoff games to become a major sports moment. It couldn't have happened to a more interesting (infamous, even) character in Novak. It couldn't happen in any other way. The moment from beginning to end was incredible - from the one-in-a-million likelihood of the ball hitting the lineswoman (in the throat no less), to it happening to a player so close to GOAT status, but also so un-loved and mysterious. We may never get a moment like this again.

NFL 2020: Projecting the Season

AFC East

New England Patriots  =  11-5 (3)
Buffalo Bills  =  10-6 (6)
New York Jets  =  6-10
Miami Dolphins  =  6-10


AFC North

Baltimore Ravens  =  12-4 (2)
Pittsburgh Steelers  =  10-6  (5)
Cleveland Browns  =  9-7
Cincinnati Bengals  =  4-12


AFC South

Indianapolis Colts  =  10-6 (4)
Houston Texans  =  8-8
Tennessee Titans  =  6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-15


AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs  =  12-4 (1)
Las Vegas Raiders  =  9-7 (7)
Denver Broncos  =  6-10
Los Angeles Chargers  =  5-11

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles  =  12-4 (2)
Dallas Cowboys  =  11-5 (6)
Washington Redskins  =  5-11
New York Giants  =  5-11


NFC North

Minnesota Vikings  =  10-6 (4)
Green Bay Packers  =  9-7
Detroit Lions  =  5-11
Chicago Bears  =  4-12


NFC South

Atlanta Falcons  =  11-5 (3)
New Orleans Saints  =  11-5 (5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  9-7
Carolina Panthers  =  2-14


NFC West

San Francisco 49ers  =  12-4 (1)
Los Angeles Rams  =  10-6 (7)
Seattle Seahawks  =  9-7
Arizona Cardinals  =  6-10

Playoffs

Wild Card Weekend

(A7) Raiders 13  @  (A2) Ravens 34
(A6) Bills 14  @  (A3) Patriots 17
(A5) Steelers 20  @  (A4) Colts 23
(N7) Rams 16  @  (N2) Eagles 27
(N6) Cowboys  31  @  (N3) Falcons 13
(N5) Saints 23  @  (N4) Vikings 20


Divisional Weekend

(A4) Colts 23  @  (A1) Chiefs 28
(A3) Patriots 17  @  (A2) Ravens 30
(N6) Cowboys 20  @  (N1) 49ers 26
(N5) Saints 20  @  (N2) Eagles 30


Championship Sunday

(A2) Ravens 27  @  (A1) Chiefs 24
(N2) Eagles 28  @  (N1) 49ers 21


Super Bowl LV

(A2) Ravens 24  vs  (N2) Eagles 20