NFL 2023: Week 14 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Too Bad To Warrant Much Thought" Duo

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  1-11  (191-313)

31.) New England Patriots  =  2-10  (148-254)

The Panthers firing their coach didn't really help all that much. They played better I guess, but to me that is more of just how bad the NFC South is that the game was still close. Bryce Young at this point should see ending this season without injury as a major win, and just get ready to helpfully try more and be better next year. For the Patriots - it is staggering how far this has fallen on offense. The defense has given up 26 points over the last three games - and they're 0-3. The defense is still good but every week that goes by the writing on teh wall becomes clearer and clearer about the future of Belichick. The only good thing is they are so bad that they have a clear view of a Top-2 pick now.

Tier II - The "Just Plain Bad" Quadro

30.) Washington Commanders  =  4-9  (261-395)
29.) New York Giants  =  4-8  (159-292)

28.) Arizona Cardinals  =  3-10  (230-331)

27.) Chicago Bears  =  4-8  (242-296)

The Commanders may have fired Ron Rivera by the time I post this (currently writing on Sunday Night). The defense has become a true joke, which is shocking given as even at his worst in Carolina the defense was always respectable. For the Commanders, they need a full reset. The Giants bye came at a decent time - will be super interesting to see if they stick with cult hero Tommy DeVito or go back to Tyrod. I hope they keep DeVito. I mean what's the point of Tyron for them? The Cardinals have generally avoided the trap I see a lot of taems like them enter the 2nd half of a season where they lost a lot of competitive games. Usually it all collapses inward, but for them they've remained frisky. The Bears have to hope the bye week doesn't ruin what little momentum they seemed to have in the last couple games. Fields is looking slightly better, but I still think Eberflus won't make it past this season.

Tier III - The "Just Plain Not-As-Bad" Quadro

26.) New York Jets  =  4-8  (171-251)
25.) Tennessee Titans  =  4-8  (213-253)

24.) XXXXXXXXX

23.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-7  (202-256)

The Jets defense is admirable, but the offense is just hellish. I don't know if any team will have as interesting a first month of the offseason. Do they just decide to give everyone a mulligan because of the Rodgers injury. This defense is very good but can that be enough to give them another go? For the Titans, I think we reach the end of the Vrabel tenure also. Levis hasn't really shone and while they are generally well coached I do worry about his development under Vrabel's regime. XXXXXXXXXXX. For the Raiders, the sheen on the Pierce era has worn off. Aiden O'Connell is interesting enough and the energy under Pierce is still there, but the taletn deficiency on defense is just tough to overcome.

Tier IV - The "Same As Last Year, But No Brady" Trio

22.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  5-7  (233-245)
21.) New Orleans Saints  =  5-7  (257-255)
20.) Atlanta Falcons  =  6-6  (226-240)

The NFC South was a joke last year, given some undeserved credibility because of Brady's presence - despite him being fairly average himself last year. Well, take away Brady and the division is basically what it was. The Bucs may have the highest end talent but defensive injuries and the Mayfield low-ceiling really hurt them. The Saints are cycling through QBs and the defense also has shown its biggest weakness in lack of depth recently. The Falcons' defense continues to be strong, as it has throughout the last couple seasons. I don't really see a super high potential future for them as long as their offense gets kneecapped by Arthur Smith's weird defiance to feeding his stars. 

Tier VI - The "One Of These May Sneak In" Trio

19.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-5  (192-229)
18.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-5  (258-245)

17.) Indianapolis Colts  =  7-5  (300-296)

The AFC has four teams at 7-5 in wild card positioning. The best of that bunch is still to come. The other are these three. I wouldn't necessarily call them frauds, but their records are a bit generous. For the Steelers, everything went wrong and now Pickett is out for a few weeks. Trubisky just isn't good enough at this point in his career. Their schedule isn't super difficult, but as we just saw with their miserable loss to Arizona, even an easy schedule is not any sort of guarantee. For the Browns, Flacco was remarkably not awful but I don't expect him to play any better given his age. If anything, I would expect his mobility to harm him more in future games. For the Colts, tehy are just too turnover prone to trust. Their defense is miles better than I would have expected - all credit there to Gus Bradley of all people - but Minshew is just too high variance. Losing Taylor hasn't helped either.

Tier V - The "Middling, Fun Wild Card Contenders" Trio

16.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  5-7  (275-258)
15.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-6  (264-290)
14.) Los Angeles Rams  =  6-6  (268-253)

On the other side, we have these three which have worse records than the 7-5 AFC Trio, but I would pick any of these three to beat any of the prior group tomorrow if they played head to head. That might be being a bit too optimistic on the Chargers, but their defense has impressed the last few weeks. Herbert is definitely just having an off season. The Seahawks need their defense that they had the first half of the season. It is hard to imagine that we're at the point where Geno basically repeated the successes of the last season but their record is on track to be worse. For the Rams, that was a great win - the offense was excellent against a great defense. Aaron Donald has wreaked havoc the last few games as well. Their top-end is nowhere near where it was in 2020-21, but they have a great shot of squeezing into the playoffs.

Tier VII - The "Genuinely Fun Wild Card Contenders" Quadro

13.) Denver Broncos  =  6-6  (263-302)
12.) XXXXXXX
11.) Minnesota Vikings  =  6-6  (263-242)

10.) Houston Texans  =  7-5  (281-249)

The Broncos lost but again had a good defensive performance. It is stunning to think they are on pace to give up just 400 points, given than 70 came in the one game. Wilson locked in a bit too much for me, but his connection to Jeudy & Sutton is just excellent by now. XXXXXXXXXXXXXX. For the Vikings, this is a bet on upside. Dobbs has definitely come back to earth but with Justin Jefferson potentially back in the next couple games, they have serious upward mobility. For the Texans, that was a super impressive win. Not nearly their best game, but Stroud didn't make any bad mistakes, the two main WRs were strong against a good secondary, and Will Anderson was outrageous. I don't think the #3 overall pick has quiet to date, but this was an incredible performance.

Tier VIII - The "Hope the Bye Week Helped, Boys" Uno

9.) Buffalo Bills  =  6-6  (328-227)

I would love to say the bye can cure ills but with the Chiefs and Cowboys coming up, things can get worse. That said, the one shining light would be that much of their AFC Wild Card competition had rough weeks - especially with the Steelers, Browns and Broncos dropping games. They still would have to jump over two of the four 7-5 teams that are above them, but they have that upside. The margin for error is basically zero however.

Tier IX - The "Genuine Contenders" Quadro

8.) Detroit Lions  =  9-3  (327-286)

7.) XXXXXXXX
6.) Miami Dolphins  =  9-3  (384-266)
5.) XXXXXXXXXX

The Lions had a gut check win. The quick 21-0 lead was something but my favorite part of the game was them going up 33-21 after having it get as close as 24-21. Gibbs is also turning into a dynamic player the likes of which they sorely needed as anotehr short option for Goff. This game wasn't perfect by any means. The defense struggled again, but Goff had a calm game which was sorely needed. XXXXXXXXXXXX. The Dolphins finally were able to flex their muscles on offense again. They are still depending a ton on high variance big plays, and you can extend that to things like their screen-pass Pick-6, but there is a good track record of them getting enough of those plays to beat mediocre teams badly. XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Tier X - The "Great NFC East Race of 2023" Duo

4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  9-3  (388-220)

3.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  10-2  (329-288)

Oh what timing for these two to play again. They had a great game the first time, with teh Eagles just handing on in Philadelphia. After the Eagles finally see their luck end, getting hammered by San Francisco, you would think they come into Dallas fairly motivated to show the close wins weren't flukes. Dallas though is on such a roll offensively I do worry they can do much the same to the Eagles defense. For the Eagles, it would be nice if they got more than just Smith & Brown working on offense. The team is still good but a sullen loss like that was in the offing for weeks now.

Tier XI - The "2012 Super Bowl Rematch?" Duo

2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  9-3  (324-187)

1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  9-3  (352-189)

The Ravens quietly sat back on their bye - hopefully figuring out ways to get their offense unlocked in the red zone again. The Defense is fantastic and should by all reason stay that way. The only thing in my mind that stops them from at least an AFC Title Game berth is a potential Lamar injury. For the 49ers, that was some performance. These two actually play later this season. The 49ers one weakness so far has been to AFC teams so let's see if taht lasts.

Projecting the Playoffs

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NFC

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Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Bye: Arizona Cardinals (3-10), Washington Commanders (4-9)

15.) Carolina Panthers (1-11)  @  New Orleans Saints (5-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

14.) New England Patriots (2-10)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)  (TNF - Prime)

13.) Detroit Lions (9-3)  @  Chicago Bears (4-8)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Houston Texans (7-5)  @  New York Jets (4-8)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Tennessee Titans (4-8)  @  Miami Dolphins (9-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

10.) Green Bay Packers (X-X)  @  New York Giants (4-8)  (MNF - ABC)
9.) Indianapolis Colts (7-5)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)

8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)  @  Atlanta Falcons (6-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Denver Broncos (6-6)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (5-7)  (4:25 - CBS)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (6-6)  @  Las Vegas Raiders  (5-7)  (4:05 - FOX)

5.) Seattle Seahawks (6-6)  @  San Francisco 49ers (9-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars (X-X)  @  Cleveland Browns (7-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

3.) Los Angeles Rams (6-6)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

2.) Buffalo Bills (6-6)  @  Kanas City Chiefs (X-X)  (4:25 - CBS)

1.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)  @  Dallas Cowboys (9-3)  (SNF - NBC)