Tier I - The "Where Did It All Go Wrong" Uno
While they were on the bye they now become the sole winless team, and with underlying numbers more or less as bad as the Titans or Dolphins also. The clock is ticking on Harbaugh and probably well past that point for McDaniel. Most interesting thing for me to watch is if there is any reality to the idea they could explore a Herbert trade. I doubt it, but something that could definitely be on the table in the offseason.
Tier II - The "League Doormats" Quadro
31.) Tennessee Titans = 1-6 (108-156)
30.) Miami Dolphins = 1-5 (98-157)
29.) Arizona Cardinals = 2-5 (142-208)
30.) Miami Dolphins = 1-5 (98-157)
29.) Arizona Cardinals = 2-5 (142-208)
28.) Indianapolis Colts = 2-5 (154-280)
They all have wins; heck, some have two of them. I don't know how many more will come - which is sad for the Colts given they don't have their first round pick (or a GM). The Titans still look lost on offense, and while I imagine Saleh gets more than one year, the heat will be fully on. The Dolphins looked competent and may be building something, but that roster is just so threadbare. I geuss there is a certain optimism if your team is openly roster poor. The Cardinals actually may be in a similar position. The talent is just lacking, but I do like the coaching staff. Ironically, a few similar things could be said of the Colts, as I do think there is a good coach hiding within Steichen, it just seems pretty clear it will be the next team to benefit on this if I am right. I do also wonder if at some point there is a pivot to at least give Richardson a few games, if only to generate some trade value.
Tier III - The "Unlikely To Spoil, But It Will Hurt" Quinto
27.) New York Jets = 2-5 (137-150)
26.) Washington Commanders = 1-4-1 (132-172)
25.) Philadelphia Eagles = 2-5 (127-175)
24.) New Orleans Saints = 2-5 (162-194)
23.) Las Vegas Raiders = 3-4 (183-197)
25.) Philadelphia Eagles = 2-5 (127-175)
24.) New Orleans Saints = 2-5 (162-194)
23.) Las Vegas Raiders = 3-4 (183-197)
It's amazing I had some optimism on the Jets early season start - as even in their 1-2 start they were generally competent. That is long gone, with two straight sloppy, sloppy, sloppy games and division losses. The Pats game was more frustrating (turnovers, short yardage) and thsi more embarrassing, and for the first time, I agree questions should be asked about Glenn. The Commanders get back from their bye with the good momentum of not giving up against the 49ers. I guess the division is theoretically in play as it is hard to know if the Giants are for real, but more theri goal should just be getting 11 more healthy games from Daniels. The Eagles are in a lost season, the main question now is does this became the opportunity to axe Sirianni. McKee had some moments, but doesn't help that he is missing any realistics weapons outside of Saquon. Dark season ahead. The Saints are a frustrating team with some highs but way more lows at this point, and I fear Tyler Shough is just not going to cut it. I do like Kellen Moore however, and hope he finds a better QB to hitch himself to. Speaking of QBs to hitch yourself to, I would give Cousins just one more game to put things relatively back on track as if he can't show up against this version of the Jets than it deserves to be Mendoza time. The defense is also super underperforming at this point.
Tier IV - The "Down Bad in Texas" Duo
22.) Houston Texans = 2-5 (165-170)
21.) Dallas Cowboys = 3-4 (189-180)
21.) Dallas Cowboys = 3-4 (189-180)
The Texans still have that -5 point differential to pretend that things are OK, but the more that this rests on an overperforming offense, the more worrying it gets. We know that defense is more volatile year to year, but even then, this is extreme in that sense. The pass rush apart from Anderson going silent is the weirdest part. Just stunning. It's hard to know fully what to read of that Cowboys performance. The offense was excellent, the defense had a hard time really putting distance between them and a team QB'd by Tanner McKee. At their best, they still seem like a dominant offense, but they still sit 2.5 games back of the Giants at this point.
Tier V - The "NFC South, As Always" Trio
20.) Carolina Panthers = 3-3 (159-166)
19.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 2-5 (162-151)
18.) Atlanta Falcons = 3-4 (171-173)
Ironically, I still think all three are reasonably average teams - hence their ranking. The Panthers took a lot of their goodwill and shot it right out the door with that disaster, but the season has still been a net positive given Bryce's play. The Buccaneers looked energized with Mayfield back, even if Baker himself did little to nothing in teh game. The defense has really been born again, exhibiting a lot of the good Bowles' traits - the manic pass rush, the speed. For the Falcons, a solid, if a bit predictable win, but one predicated a bit too much on turnovers. On balance, the Falcons are still having success with Penix and that offense - that was my main takeaway from taht game, that they could take full advantage of 49ers defensive lapses. I still think on balance the Falcons are the best team in the division. This week will give us a nice early look at this.
Tier VI - The "Someone Has to Win the NFC East" Uno
17.) New York Giants = 4-2-1 (163-161)
The funniest part of this Giants season is that if not for the Skattebo fumble in OT against the Commanders, they would be 5-2 right now. Still, 4-2-1 is reasonable. They have a positive point differential. They went on the road and beat a reasonable team, and maybe, just maybe, McCarthy took his being run out of Minnesota as a challenge to give his career another real go. The base Giants talent level is good enough to win this godforesaken division with capable QB play. If anything, the McCarthy we've seen can get worse and still have a better chance of giving them that than Jameis did.
Tier VII - The "Weird, Weird AFC North" Trio
16.) Cleveland Browns = 5-2 (133-146)
15.) Baltimore Ravens = 4-3 (169-167)
14.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 5-2 (153-138)
Clearly, there is one more AFC North team to come, but I will group these three together. It is interesting because in this grouping you get two 5-2 teams who don't seem as good as their record, and a 4-3 one that seems better in theory. Of course, that "in theory" bit is the full unknown of how much longer Lamar will be out. Was supposed to be a light injury is far into the "lingering longer than it should" territory now, and the defense is unable to keep sticking up for Huntley. The rest of the division has a chance to run and hide. Including tehse other two that are 5-2 despite being outscored, but the Browns have been respectable down to down for a few games now, and the Steelers defense and top skill guys are playing well enough to do what all the recent Tomlin-era Steelers have done. In the case of both the Ravens and teh Steelers, their massive coaching changes haven't really seemed to have changed anything.
Tier VIII - The "Upwardly / Downwardly Mobile" Trio
13.) Los Angeles Rams = 3-4 (170-159)
12.) Denver Broncos = 5-2 (144-141)
11.) New England Patriots = 4-3 (160-143)
Another trio where the question is if the 5-2 team is worse than its record, and the other teams are better. The Rams were dominant for most of that game and should get Garrett back at some point. The losses are in the bank however, and the division is a good amount away. Their games against the Seahawks will really be critical - luckily for them Garrett may be in play for both. The Broncos defense has returned to its excellent play in recent weeks despite still missing corners. The offense finally showed some signs of life. So much of it seems to be just mental with Nix. If (and this is a giant "if") he can get over the dink and dunk prediliction, they could still be scary. For the Patriots, another solid game from Maye (even if I didn't think it was the second coming like many) but AJ Brown looks lost out there, adn the secondary played well below its standards on a day the pass rush couldn't get home. The schedule eases up, but this is a team that might be just a step below the other top ones all year.
Tier IX - The "Some Holes Exist" Quadro
10.) Green Bay Packers = 4-3 (144-145)
9.) Cincinnati Bengals = 4-2 (163-122)
8.) Detroit Lions = 4-2 (184-165)
7.) Kansas City Chiefs = 5-1 (143-103)
As always, we are hearing the old "there are no great teams" routine that we've heard absically every year since 2007, despite that there often are great team. The more interesting finding if you look at say the last 20 years of NFL, is generally the top teams by the end of the regular season are defined by great runs to end the year, rather than start it (say the 2019 Ravens, 2023 Ravens, 2010 Patriots, 2015 Panthers, and more). Anyway, weird aside, but tehse four are all solid. The Packers need to figure out why they often can't score more than 23 points, but the team is getting healthier and steadier. The Bengals defense is remaining league average, which as their offense showed in teh second half is all they need. Burrow looks calmer playing more from the shotgun again - in the end they have to stop trying to make him someone he just is not. The Lions quietly have one of the league's best offenses - they just need to stop fumbling or turning it over on downs. Goff looks amazing and in rythym and I like the more varied route tree Jameson has at this point. Finally for the Chiefs, yes that was a disaster. Hopefully Rashee Rice is back soon, and hopefully they can just chalk that up to a night game against a very motivated Seattle team. My bigger worry is their lack of pass rush, but largely, they will be fine.
Tier X - The "NFC Beasts" Trio
6.) Seattle Seahawks = 4-3 (168-125)
5.) Chicago Bears = 5-2 (180-143)
4.) Minnesota Vikings = 6-0 (125-74)
4.) Minnesota Vikings = 6-0 (125-74)
The Seahawks are maybe the best team down to down. They turn it over too much, which cost them dearly in all three losses. Those three losses are there. The big problem they have is there are seven very good to great teams in teh NFC West and NFC North and at most five of them can make the playoffs. They still have Chicago, the 49ers (in SF) and both Rams games, but maybe they found somethign in the run game. The Bears look poised (other than of course that ridiculous pre-halftime play). Caleb looks settled. That was a really nice win, including a defense that is doing just good enough manufacturing pressure. For the Vikings, they have no problems manufacturing pressure. Kyler still doesn't look too settled, and more worryingly, he has not yet found a good chemistry with Jefferson, but if they have notable holes where they could improve and are still 6-0....
Tier XI - The "Top of the AFC" Duo
3.) Buffalo Bills = 5-1 (197-171)
2.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 4-2 (154-104)
The Bills maybe had one of the great bye weeks of all time - the Chiefs lost and the Patriots lost, giving them now the clear path to the #1 seed and a 1.5 game lead in teh division. Yes, the only way the bye week could ahve gone better is if they traded for more defensive help, or Sean McDermott as DC. The defense is worrying, but the offense is playing at a near historic level in terms of drive success. The Jags loss to the Texans looks a bit worse, but at the end this is the ebst AFC team to me down-to-down. They have to cut the penalties but in a weakening division, staring other divisions where tops teams could knock each other around, they still ahve a great shot at a top seed.
Tier XII - The "Trust Shaken, Not Lost" Uno
1.) San Francisco 49ers = 6-1 (197-139)
Yeah, I still have them here. That was about as predictable a loss as possible - injured, though in a state where some of them shoudl be back after their bye, along with a short week and a 1pm Eastern Time start, and it isn't surprising at all that the 49ers would have a sloppy, turnover filled game. Granted, if they didn't have the uncharacteristic turnovers (one of which was a once-a-year type play by Bates) then they may win the game anyway. The offense still moves the ball crazily well. I do hope Evans is back after the bye, or some reinforcements. This can be a special team. That one road loss against a team with notable highs doesn't change that view for me.
Looking Ahead to Next Weeks Games
Byes: New Orleans Saints (2-5), New York Giants (4-2-1), San Francisco 49ers (6-1), Houston Texans (2-5)
14.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-5) @ Washington Commanders (1-4-1) (SNF - NBC)
13.) Arizona Cardinals (2-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-4) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) @ New York Jets (2-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Bad Against Bad" Sunday, as we get these three games with two teams each under .500. Usually, I save this more black and white approach at looking at games until later in the year, but this week does stand out in this way. As for the first one, still so ridiculous that the NFL did not flex out this Eagles @ Commies game. This truly might be the worst SNF game in memory. The other two are no better but at least shoved in the 1pm slot.
11.) Indianapolis Colts (2-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Los Angeles Chargers (0-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-4) (4:05 - FOX)
9.) Tennessee Titans (1-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) New England Patriots (4-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-6) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Bad vs. Good" Sunday, as we get four games that fit that definition. The Colts are in full firesale mode, and while it would be funny if they beat a far better team off of a bye, I just don't see any way that happens. The Chargers misery will also almost certainly continue. The Bengals defense should at least give some latitude to Cam Ward, which will be interesting to monitor. Finally, on paper the Patriots on a mini-bye should see a game in Miami as a gimme mismatch, but it will be interesting to see if the house of horrors that was Miami to Brady continues to the Maye era - especially after some signs of life from Miami last week.
7.) Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ Green Bay Packers (4-3) (TNF - Prime)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (3-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "The Tour of the NFC South" Thursday and Sunday, as we get our three most likely combatants for the NFC South across these two. The Panthers get a chance to get right after that disaster, but certainly the short week won't help against what should be a pissed off Packers team. The Falcons @ Buccaneers is a good matchup in a way, especially if the Panthers lose - technically the winner would be in first place. Someone will win this division - the only interesting watchout is if we ahvea second straight sub-.500 division winner.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (4-3) @ Buffalo Bills (5-1) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Man, I Miss Lamar" Sunday, as I am ranking this off of the going in assumption that Lamar Jackson will miss the game. There is still some juice to it to see if the Ravens can avoid falling further behind their AFC North bretheren, and if the Bills can stop Derrick Henry for once. That all said, if Lamar is playing, this would be my #2. If I knew 100% he isn't playing, this would be #8 - so call this ranking the weighted average.
4.) Cleveland Browns (5-2) @ Pittsburgh Steeler (5-2) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) @ Denver Broncos (5-2) (4:25 - CBS)
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) @ Denver Broncos (5-2) (4:25 - CBS)
2.) Minnesota Vikings (6-0) @ Detroit Lions (4-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Still Early But Great Divisional Matchups" Sunday, as we get a preview of what late season looks like. Just a trio of graet inter-division games. Browns and Steelers is super unlikely that both are 5-2. The Browns best win by far was their win over Pittsburgh earlier in teh year. The winner will be a crazy 6-2. Super fun, even if both teams are a bit fraudelent. The Chiefs and Broncos has taken on new life after teh Chiefs loss - the winner in this would lead the AFC West. The Chiefs have an opportunity to really put the hammer down - effectively take a 3-game lead. The Chiefs also get a chacne to show that last week was a bit of a mirage. The Vikings blitz against the Lions suddenly good again OL should be fun, but more than that is just this being the Vikings real first test - a good team on the road. Excellent stuff here.
1.) Chicago Bears (5-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-3) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "I Live For Monday" Monday, as man this is a great one. The Seahawks are still playing just dominant defense, and the Bears, given the command and calmnes of Caleb Williams at the moment, is a great test - for both sides really. Same with Allen's blitz-happy approach against a QB who can get rattled. There is obviously a 30% chance we get a classic Seahawks primetime game blowout (like of course we just did) but there is a better chance in my opinion we get a fun one in a game where if the Seahawks lose, they will be in really tough position with four losses.








