NFL 2023: Week 16 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Start Scouting QBs.... and the Panthers" Quadro

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  2-12  (206-348)

31.) Washington Commanders  =  4-10  (281-423) 

30.) New England Patriots  =  3-11  (186-299)

29.) Arizona Cardinals  =  3-11  (259-376)

The Panthers got a win, but not in a way that will make anyone stop asking questions about Bryce Young as a long term option. It would be interesting if for a second straight year there's some improvement defensively after firing a coach. Speaking of firing a coach, it's fairly certain Rivera is gone in Washington, and the porous play of his defense cements it. It didn't help his cause that they traded away some of their better players in Sweat and Young, but he hasn't done anything to improve things. For the Patriots and Cardinals, that was return to normal - being thoroughly outclassed at home to better teams. The Patriots had Zappe play ok - but in their good luck they are in prime position for a #2 or #3 pick, with the fact that all the teams that could possibly top them (Commanders excluded) don't necessarily need a QB. I do have to wonder though of Murray has done well enough the last few games to not at least think of Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

Tier II - The "New York, New York" Duo

28.) New York Jets  =  5-9  (201-287)

27.) New York Giants  =  5-9  (189-338)

Last year with the Giants at 10-6-1 and the Jets at 7-10 was basically the best season for the New York teams collectively since 2011 (Giants Super Bowl, Jets 8-8). Well, this is more like it. I can't believe that we are basically a full decade of both New York teams basically being irrelevabnt - from 2012-2023 the Giants and Jets have combined for two playoff appearances (Giants in 2016, 2022), and one playoff win. The future is a bit dim also - with the hopes having to be pinned to a 40-year old Rodgers coming back from injury.

Tier III - The "Languishing at the Bottom" Quadro

26.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  5-9  (303-345)

25.) Chicago Bears  =  5-9  (287-329)
24.) Tennessee Titans  =  5-9  (257-301)
23.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-8  (265-280)

These four teams may steal a win or two on their way out the door, but their seasons are all basically done. For our benefit truly - we may see some pretty meh teams in the playoffs, but these four are a cut below that. The Chargers are just helpless without Herbert. I'm glad their firings involved both Telesco along with Staley - Tom Telesco deserves to be fired after the number of fallow drafts. The Bears really blew that game, and what could have been a super oblique chance at the playoffs. That's all done though and may likely spell the end of Eberflus. For the Titans, they too blew that game. Levis's injury was scary and sad, given he had put some life in that team. Finally for the Raiders - incredible win of course, but doing that against the lifeless companion Chargers in this group probably isn't all that meaningful at this point.

Tier IV - The "Losing Steam & Quick" Trio

22.) Atlanta Falcons  =  6-8  (258-278)
21.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-7  (223-280)
20.) Green Bay Packers  =  6-8  (300-301)

The Falcons should be better than this. I feel like they'll hover close enough to .500 for Arthur Smith to keep his job, but in my view he really shouldn't. Their complete lack of direction and effectiveness despite all the draft capital they've poured into the offense is just bizarre to see. For the Steelers, the playoffs are probably a distant dream at this point with the bevy of 8-6 teams. The real goal at this point is just can they finish 2-1 to keep Tomlin's .500 streak alive. They've deserved it less in past years, but this will be tough. The Packers are a mystery. Their offense was so good for weeks on weeks but were impotent against the Giants and now their defense had maybe one of the worst games I can remember a team had all season.

Tier V - The "Good, Bad teams" Trio

19.) Denver Broncos  =  7-7  (304-351)

18.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-7  (290-269)

17.) Seattle Seahawks  =  7-7  (300-335)

16.) New Orleans Saints  =  7-7  (309-267)

All three have a shoat at the playoffs. If anything the Vikings adn Saints are tied with playoff teams right now. But I hope none of them make it. The Broncos are a nice story but that offense is just not consistent enough down to down to really put that honor of the "nice story" on Payton and Wilson. For the Vikings, Mullens was better than recent Josh Dobbs play. The revelation has been the Vikings defense under Flores. If they can get some improved talent on that unit it can be a scary one come 2024 (especially if they can pair that with a healthy Jefferson. The Seahawks are not a very good team but have enough prime skill talent in teh receivers, in the running back, in certain defenders. They can sneak in for sure, but unless Geno reverts super quick to early-2022 form, they aren;t long for January anyway. For the Saints, they are so high variance. The Giants were useless once they got DeVito out of the game (a ludicrous thing to say in 2023...) but that is the Saints at their best.

Tier VI - The "Not Bad, Good Teams" Quadro

15.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  8-6  (307-311)

14.) Indianapolis Colts  =  8-6  (344-343)
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  7-7  (296-290)
12.) Houston Texans  =  8-6  (306-295)

I don't understand this Bengals team, other than to say the coaching staff is excellent, Chase & Higgins are that good, and they've gotten some ridiculous plays in their favor. Tough schedule down the stretch, but the fact they are in prime playoff position at this point with Burrow out is crazy. The Colts have a lighter schedule, but are too high variance to really trust. The defense had one of their good days. The pass rush is what does it for this team. As we saw the previous game with the Bengals, when they can't get home that defense is very porous. For the Bucs, quietly Mayfield has been quite good at maximizing the Bucs strengths this year - namely getting Evans deep. For the Texans, hopefully Stroud gets back, but good on Case Keenum filling in without two of the top weapons. Even better, how about Demeco Ryans's defense without Will Anderson. The Texans are a scary team going forward.

Tier VII - The "How are they doing this?" Uno

11.) Cleveland Browns  =  9-5  (309-289)

The Browns should have lost that game. They should ahve lost the Colts game. They probably should ahve lost the 49ers game. Yes, they have a great defense, but they have injuries all over the offense. They're starting Joe Flacco in the year of Our Lord 2023. I don't understand any of it. People are probably overplaying their playoff odds a bit, as they have raod games against the Bengals and Texans who they are competing against, but knowing how this team has somehow got to 9-5, I wouldn't put the 11-6 (more or less all they need) to get there.

Tier VIII - The "High Upside Midllers" Trio

10.) Los Angeles Rams  =  7-7  (327-310)
9.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  8-6  (319-313)

8.) Buffalo Bills  =  8-6  (379-254)

The Rams are probably making the playoffs, especially if the schedulers break their way and their Week 18 contest in San Francisco is meaningless for the 49ers. The Rams are a good offense elevated by a special Stafford season, and Kupp reviving his career. I truly hope they make the playoffs. For the Jaguars, their defense is so high variance but been better of late with consistency in the pass rush. Lawrence has to stop making dumb mistakes but the talent is so there. For the Bills, the defense settling in to their post-Milano world took a while but they've consistently been good for six games now. Technically they don't control their own destiny, but if they win out (possible, though that Week 17 game in Miami looms large...) they almost certainly would get in.

Tier IX - The "Plain Good Teams, but Questions Remain" Quadro

7.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  10-4  (359-341)

6.) Detroit Lions  =  10-4  (382-331)

5.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  9-5  (319-245)

4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  10-4  (431-264)

The Eagles were skating by on luck and top plays for weeks but man it has caught up to them big time. The defense showed some life with teh pass rush playing its best game in weeks, but the offense is so inconsistent. They could have ran on teh Seahawks all day, but just chose not to weirdly. The Lions and Chiefs had get-right games. Specifically for the Lions it was nice to see their offense play in rhythm again, starting with a great performance by the OL after a few fallow weeks. Goff is so good when given time. For teh Chiefs, Rice is turning into the dependable option they so sorely need. The best sign for them is the defense had a super strong game again. That defense is good, and if Rice can elevate his game, and they never throw the ball anywhere near Toney again, they have still a greatly high ceiling. For the Cowboys, a concerning loss but this is still a team that hammered the Eagles just a week back. 

Tier X - The "Class of the League" Trio

3.) Miami Dolphins  =  10-4  (441-294)
2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-3  (384-225)
1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  11-3  (425-334)

I've bumped the Dolphins up here know their resume isn't as strong as the two above them, and they've beat up a bad schedule. But man have they really beat up that schedule. Their schedule is super tough to end, but their defense is playing at a level that can keep them in games even if better defenses in Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo can slow down their offense. Phillips and Chubb have been great of late. For the Ravens, the injuries are starting to pile up, but the offense has enough weapons, especially with teh sudden maturating of Isaiah Likely. The defense is also finding stars in guys like Medubike. Their matchup against the 49ers may not matter too much for the Ravens in teh sense they would get the #1 seed if they win out even with dropping that game since they play Miami, but it is a great spot to make a statement against the 49ers, who are absolutely the best team in the league right now. So curious to see how they match up with the blitz-heavy approach that Baltimore unleashes.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Baltimore Ravens  =  13-4

2.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  12-5

3.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  11-6

4.) Buffalo Bills  =  11-6

5.) Houston Texans  =  11-6

6.) Cleveland Browns  =  11-6

7.) Miami Dolphins  =  11-6

NFC

 

1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  14-3

2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  13-4

3.) Detroit Lions  =  12-5

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  9-8

5.) Dallas Cowboys  =  12-5

6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  9-8

7.) Seattle Seahawks  =  9-8

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Schedule

16.) Washington Commanders (4-10)  @  New York Jets (5-9)  (1:00 - CBS)

15.) Arizona Cardinals (3-11)  @  Chicago Bears (5-9)  (4:25 - FOX)
14.) Green Bay Packers (6-8)  @  Carolina Panthers (2-12)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) New York Giants (5-9)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)  (MON, 4:30 - FOX)

12.) New England Patriots (3-11)  @  Denver Broncos (7-7)  (SNF - NFLNet)
11.) Buffalo Bills (8-6)  @  Los Angeles Charges (5-9)  (Sat, 8:00 - Peacock)

10.) Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (MON, 1:00 - CBS)
9.) Seattle Seahawks (7-7)  @  Tennessee Titans (5-9)  (1:00 - CBS)

8.) Indianapolis Colts (8-6)  @  Atlanta Falcons (6-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

7.) New Orleans Saints (7-7)  @  Los Angeles Rams (7-7)  (TNF - Prime)

6.) Detroit Lions (10-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (7-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)  (Sat, 4:30 - NBC)

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)  (4:05 - CBS)

3.) Cleveland Browns (9-5)  @  Houston Texans (8-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
2.) Dallas Cowboys (10-4)  @  Miami Dolphins (10-4)  (4:25 - FOX)
1.) Baltimore Ravens (11-3)  @  San Francisco 49ers (11-3)  (MNF - ABC)