NFL 2023: Week 15 Power Rankings & The Rest

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  1-12  (197-341)
31.) Arizona Cardinals  =  3-10  (230-331)

30.) Washington Commanders  =  4-9  (261-395)
29.) New England Patriots  =  3-10  (169-272)

The bottom of the league has pretty much separated itself into this nice quadro. The Cardinals and Patriots won recently, both in Pittsburgh which is nice, but what that really does it make it glaringly likely that they get the #1 pick. The Panthers need a hard reset, I honestly wonder if they're better off just sitting Bryce Young. For the others, the Cardinals have easily the most upward mobility, even if they keep Kyler. I still beleive in the coaching staff. The other two coaching staffs are dead men walking at this point - as even I've come over to the side that I find it more likely than not that this is it for Belichick in New England.

28.) New York Giants  =  5-8  (183-314)

27.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-8  (202-259)

26.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  5-8  (282-282)

25.) Tennessee Titans  =  5-8  (241-282)

This foursome is so far better than the prior four it is laughable, especially with the Giants getting Tommy DeVito magic at the moment. He actually looked like a solid QB, throwing in rhythm, in that win over the Packers. So good to see them unfazed by the crazy Barkley fumble. The Raiders defense remains weirdly better than the poor offense that has seen Aiden O'Connell fall super sharply back to earth. The Chargers are here because I assume Herbert doesn't come back and this is a lost season that ends with a new coach. They need to uncover some better young players around Herbert as this trumped up roster is looking super shallow at this point. The Titans had a great win, Levis looked poised, if not suiper accurate. The defense had its best games in weeks. They're way too far out of things to challegne seriously. What they will do is likely decide the AFC South, with both Texans games and hosting the Jags left on the calendar.

24.) New York Jets  =  5-8  (201-257)
23.) Chicago Bears  =  5-8  (270-309)

The two teams with some upward mobility even if this season is lost. We saw something real from Zach Wilson in that game. He's not the future in New York anyway, but him stabilizing and the Jets ending at 7-10 or so probably keeps Saleh around which I think is for the best. Yes we can blame them for not having a better backup strategy than Wilson - but the people that are like "They could've had Josh Dobbs" and such are insane. For the Bears, they are exciting right now, mainyl because Fields finally looks competent. That offense is working. We've had these mini-runs before with guys like Trubisky in past, so I don't want to go too extreme, but very promising signs.

22.) Atlanta Falcons  =  6-7  (251-269)

21.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-6  (210-250)

20.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  6-7  (262-270)

Man there is such dreck in this 6-7/7-6 stretch. The bottom to me are three teams that are flattered by their record. Ridder is just not a capable enough QB to drive a playoff team. Mayfield is largely the same, but teh talent is enough elsewhere - and more than anything the coaching staff uses that talent well, like Mike Evans. For the Steelers, these past two games are just harrowing. They don't deserve to be a playoff team, especially now with Trubisky starting for a bit, but losing two homes games to 2-10 teams is just startlingly bad. 

19.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-7  (280-318)

18.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  7-6  (280-287)

17.) Indianapolis Colts  =  7-6  (314-330)s t
16.) Green Bay Packers  =  6-7  (280-267)

I don't know for sure if these four teams are better than the three prior, or are worse than the three to come. I'm  just annoyed at how little striation there is this year. The Seahawks would normally get a pass for being without Geno, but they were in trouble ahead of that based on recent performances. That defense has been poor for some time now. The Bengals renaissance with Jake Browning is fun, but that schedule is tough here on out (aside from a Steelers game). I just can't believe that Jake Browning will lead what clearly still is a talented team to the playoffs. Replace "Jake Browning" with "Gardner Minshew" and the same holds true for the Colts. To me the Colts main goal these last four weeks is seeing if they can get a bit more consistency from their line play. So high variance all season long. For the Packers, a very tough loss to a game Giants team, but Love still looked to have good rhythm with his players. LaFleur's offense with Love is settling in nicely, even if they have one too many losses this year to crack through.

15.) New Orleans Saints  =  6-7  (285-261)

14.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-6  (266-242)

13.) Denver Broncos  =  7-6  (287-309)

These last three are tough for me. They have quite high upsides, with the Saints defense + Olave being able to put together super strong stretches, to the Vikings skill platyers doing the same. the Broncos have cooled down the last couple weeks, but even there is a team on defense that has really coalesced so well under Vance Joseph these past few weeks. Likely 1-2 of these teams will make the playoffs. Other than me picking the Broncos to sneak in preseason, I don't particularly want any of teh three to, but they all have higher upsides than that batch above it.

12.) Houston Texans  =  7-6  (287-279)
11.) Los Angeles Rams  =  6-7  (299-290)
10.) Cleveland Browns  =  8-5  (289-272)

These top-12 do break 6/6 AFC & NFC. They would be my perfect playoff field. Now, they can't be because an NFC South team has to be in. But anyway. The Texans obviously had a very notable bump in teh road, but a light schedule going forward, and their recent track record prior to that Jets game still give me confidence. They just laid an egg. It happens. The Rams really should be a playoff team. There is a bevy of 6-7 teams in the NFC - two of which will make it as wild cards. I truly hope the Rams are one of those, as watching Stafford's renaissance with Kupp and Nacua has just been awesome all year. The Browns are probably far enough ahead of the 7-6 muk to make it - especially with a lighter schedule down the stretch. Like many of these AFC teams in wild card position, their games against other wild card foes - here being @ Houston and @ Cicninnati will be huge. That defense is too good for Flacco to play them out of games - acknowledging so far he's been far better than that low bar.

9.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  8-5  (312-290)

8.) Detroit Lions  =  9-4  (340-314)

Yeah, I wish I knew what to think of these two. Three weeks ago they were riding super high, but a 1-2 stretch for the Lions (with the one win being not super impressive), and two straight losses for the Jags, have really cooled things. Both Lawrence and Goff are too much requiring rhythm to really keenly excel at this point. That stability hasn't been there in recent weeks adn their defenses which were both playing above level to date have cooled off also at the wrong time. They've stacked enough wins to be clearly in playoff position, so we have to hope they can take this last month to revert back to form.

7.) Buffalo Bills  =  7-6  (348-244)

6.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  8-5  (292-228)

5.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  10-3  (342-321)
4.) Miami Dolphins  =  9-4  (411-294)

What an interesting trio. If you picked two of these teams to play tomorrow, the Bills may be the favorite but those completely blown losses to the Jets, Patriots, Broncos are going to harm them so much if they can't win out. They may be able to sneak in at 10-7 but they would lose a slew of tiebreakers. The team is just too talented though. The Chiefs actually made me feel slightly better about themselves in that game - moviung the ball consistently, Kelce having a big game. The margin for error is just too small right now, especially with an OL that regressed significantly. For the Eagles, two straight big losses to their two prime challengers are very concerning. Mostly concerning to me is the DL's propensity to go quiet way too often. Apart from the fumble-six - they were silent all of that Cowboys game. And for the Dolphins, in a way I'm glad they lost. They didn't deserve teh win that they were handed by the two fumbles the Titans gave them. The top-end of the league is too short right now to truly worry about them, but other teams will absolutely study the way the Titans were able to mix rushes and stunt their way to consistent pressure.

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  10-3  (421-233)

The only thing keeping me from having the Cowboys be seemingly equal to those top two is wanting to see a little bit more than just the one Eagles beatdown of a good team. Admittedly that's a super specific and unneeded line and distinction to draw. Dak is playing great. The weapons are working. The pass rush has been reborn last couples weeks. Everything is humming in Dallas, except for their scheduling being way tougher than Philadelphia's on the way out.

2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  10-3  (361-218)

1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  10-3  (380-205)

My top two are unchanged. Obvious in the case of the 49ers that dominated their way to another easy win. Purdy even threw an INT and was unfazed by it. The 49ers are playing with such a huge margin for error right now. I do wonder what happens if and when they play a team with a front good enough to get pressure on Purdy more consistently than any of their recent ones have. For the Ravens, they avoided another blown lead, but this was more about the Rams playing at their level. The offense is so in sync right now with Lamar - especially with OBJ having a good game for once. If these two were to meet in the Super Bowl, it wouild be a special game.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

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NFC

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Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)  (Thu - Prime)

15.) Atlanta Falcons (6-7)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-12)  (1:00 - FOX)

14.) San Francisco 49ers (10-3)  @  Arizona Cardinals (3-10)  (4:05 - CBS)

13.) Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)  @  New England Patriots (3-10)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Washington Commanders (4-9)  @  Los Angeles Rams (6-7)  (4:05 - CBS)

11.) Chicago Bears (5-8)  @  Cleveland Browns (8-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
10.) New York Giants (X-X)  @  New Orleans Saints (6-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Houston Texans (7-6)  @  Tennessee Titans (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)
8.) New York Jets (5-8)  @  Miami Dolphins (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)

7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)  @  Green Bay Packers (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)  @  Indianapolis Colts (7-6)  (Sat, 4:30 - NFLNet)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)  (Sat, 1:00 - NFLNet) 
4.) Denver Broncos (7-6)  @  Detroit Lions (9-4)  (Sat, 8:15 - NFLNet)
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)  @  Seattle Seahawks (6-7)  (MNF - ESPN)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (10-3)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)  (SNF - NBC)
1.) Dallas Cowboys (10-3)  @  Buffalo Bills (7-6)  (4:25 - FOX)