Lounging Pass: NFL 2023: Week 18 Power Rankings & The Rest

32.) Carolina Panthers = 2-14 (236-407)

Forgot the abhorrent play of the team, the real thing we have to talk about is the behavior of David Tepper. It pleases me to no end that this guy just assumed he would come in and blow away the NFL with his innate brilliance of his mind. This shit isn't wall street buddy. This is a real meritocracy, not a weird quasi-oligopoly that teh finance world lives in. I doubt the NFL does anything too serious but it is so great to see him so upset.

31.) Washington Commanders = 4-12 (319-480)

30.) New York Giants = 5-11 (239-397)

29.) New England Patriots = 4-12 (233-349)

So these three teams are all going to face interesting QB questions. For teh Commanders, it is a fresh start (will be interested to see if they trade up). For the Giants and Patriots it is can they get out of the guys they've put some investment into. With the Giants, they need to cut bait with Daniel Jones. Whether it was DeVito or Taylor, the Giants just looked better in every way with anyone who wasn't Daniel Jones. Guys like Slayton need better QB play, teh deserve it. For the Patriots, Zappe clearly isn't the guy either. They need a fresh start. Will be tough for them to get the #2 pick at this point, so they will be praying that the Bears pick someone at #1 and not trade that pick.

28.) Tennessee Titans = 5-11 (277-347)

27.) Arizona Cardinals = 4-12 (310-434)

Grouping these two as the talent deficient teams that have at least given it a really good go this season. The Titans need to ride with Will Levis next year. I liked some brief glimpses of him this season. They need some better weapons for him, but the line is solid. For the Cardinals, this late season push probably keeps them with Kyler for next year. Saw Robert Mays compare this late season improvement as similar to say the Lions last year. I think that's wildly generous, but the Cardinals are a reasonable team with a solid coaching staff behind them.

26.) Los Angeles Chargers = 5-11 (334-385)
25.) New York Jets = 6-10 (251-352)
24.) Cincinnati Bengals = 8-8 (335-370)

All three have been befelled by QB injuries. Backups are never really sustainable, and the rest of the teams are good enough to steal or spoil but not to truly contend. The Bengals were teh closest but we've seen regression from Browning these last two games. For teh Chargers, it's all about who they hire to replace Staley and, maybe more importantly, Telesco. The roster has been overrated/aging for a while now. The Jets are keeping Salah and Douglas; well fine. I think that is defensible. What I don't think would be defensible is that if they didn't take a QB in the first or second round. The "let's jsut wait for Rodgers" to be back solution can work but even then for at most two years. They just can't have no plan for the post-Rodgers year.

23.) Atlanta Falcons = 7-9 (304-325)

22.) Las Vegas Raiders = 7-9 (305-317)
21.) Denver Broncos = 8-8 (343-386)
20.) Minnesota Vikings = 7-9 (324-332)

These four are in the parade of 7-9 / 8-8 / 9-7 teams. Technically the Falcons can be a playoff team, but all four are almost certainly not in the playoffs, and they shouldn't be. If I had to rank my optimism for them as we look ahead to 2024, I would put them in this order, or maybe swap the Raiders and Broncos. For those two, it will really depend on what happens at their QB spot. I doubt O'Connell is the long term play in LV, and Wilson is very openly not for Denver. The Falcons just seem to have a ceiling on this team as long as Smith is the coach, and Ridder projects to get a lot of snaps. For the Vikings, I think at this point they endeavor to bring Kirk back, figuring they can get him at a lower pricepoint. He/s a cult hero in Minnesota at this point, and with the way the defense has shaped up, inject even a lesser version of Kirk into that team and they would've been in the playoffs.

19.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 9-7 (287-314)
18.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 8-8 (339-325)

17.) Seattle Seahawks = 8-8 (343-382)

I hope none of these three make the playoffs, though they all have fairly clear paths in. The Bucs get in with a win. That's it. The Steelers get it with a win and a Bills loss to Miami (eminently possible). And the Seahawks need the Packers to lose to the Bears (again, possible with this improved Chicago team helping out). For the Seahawks, their lack of rush defense is what will kill them at the end of the day. They've eked out close wins the last two weeks but it all came home to roost in this one. For the Steelers, Rudolph has done well to get George Pickens into the offense more, and its revolutionized that unit. The defense has slipped a bit in recent weeks which is what them drops me. For the Bucs, it admittedly might be an overreaction on my part to just how fallow that performance was against the Saints. Granted, they would've entered that game basically knowing that the game was meaningless, since a Week 18 win against the league's worst team is all they needed to wrap up teh division. So maybe it was just going through the motions. But still, just a disastrous performance for a team that should be better.

16.) Chicago Bears = 7-9 (351-362)

I knew the Bears were playing better, but I don't think I appreciated just how much better. Not only are they a 7-9 team, but if not for throwing away that game to Cleveland, they would be 8-8 and playing for a win-and-you're-in game against Green Bay. If anything, this is the team that is reminiscent of the 2022 Lions. Rough start of the season followed by a super strong second half. A defense that was awful to start getting quietly better. Even teh season can end the same way, as just like Detroit last year, the Bears go into Week 18 with nothing to play for, other than a chance to knock the Packers out of the playoffs.

15.) Indianapolis Colts = 9-7 (377-392)
14.) Houston Texans = 9-7 (354-334)
13.) Green Bay Packers = 8-8 (336-341)
12.) New Orleans Saints = 8-8 (354-310)

These are my four teams that I think are wild card fodder more or less. Granted, three of the four if they make the playoffs could do so as a division winner. Anyway, the Colts defense is so up and down, but does so well against middling offenses. The consistency of the pass rush is a concern, but at its best its a top-5 unit. The Texans pass rush similarly can be so great when Will Anderson is in there. I still don't know of the long term gain of that pick to combine basically Stroud and Anderson, but Anderson has been as much a stud as Stroud. For the Packers, hard to really tell if that defense is getting any better, or they had a 5th round rookie just fed to them to feast on. Love though has become super dependable. For the Saints, I get that it is hard to trust them and David Carr has alternated a good game with 2-3 middling ones throughout the season, but a +44 point differential, with a Top-10 defense is a team taht should be taken more seriously than it is. If I'm the Eagles (the likely #5 seed), I would definitely want Tampa to win its game and avoid needing to go to the Superdome.

11.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 9-7 (357-343)
10.) Los Angeles Rams = 9-7 (383-357)

Hard to know how much of that Jags defensive performance was their strong play, or the Panthers being that bad. Still, Allen and Co., are a devastating pass rush at their best. The offense was bleh, but hopefully Lawrence is back for the finale. I don't know if any team taht could conceivably win back-to-back diviions titles would ever be as uninspiring as the 2022-23 Jaguars, but who cares given what Jacksonville had precedently. For the Rams, I had them as a playoff team before the season started. They were better than their 3-6 start, so I'm happy of this run of them catching fire . This 6-1 stretch includes some fairly impressive wins (blowing out the Browns, beating the Saints convincingly), and their only loss was taking the Ravens to OT. Good team, beyond even Stafford, Kupp, Nucua and Donald.

9.) Cleveland Browns = 11-5 (382-331)

8.) Philadelphia Eagles = 11-5 (423-401)

7.) Kansas City Chiefs = 10-6 (358-282)

The Browns are fascinating. Flacco's insane performance probably has 1-2 more weeks, but their defense is good enough to make them a tough out. Not as tough outs right now? Our two Super Bowl teams. The Eagles defensive struggles are so maddening. I still have no idea what the idea was behind giving playcalling duties to Matt Patricia. Just a weird move as it wasn't like the defense was notably bad under Desai. The Chiefs defense is excellent, but their offense is jsut not good enough. The most surprising part is the strange dropoff of their OL, which was a strength last year when they had to deal with similar skill position player issues. It's not like the receivers are worse this year, it is just that the line notably is.

6.) Buffalo Bills = 10-6 (430-297)
5.) Miami Dolphins = 11-5 (482-370)

What a way to end the season next week, with winner getting the AFC East. I think the Dolphins are better but their injuries on defense have come close to matching what the Bills have had to deal with. The Bills need their OL to step up after two rough games following their domination of Dallas. For the Dolphins, same in a way but my larger concern is if Waddle can get back. The Bills are great at not giving up huge pass plays so they'll need Waddle's athleticism, with my view that the Bills can put the cap on Hill.

4.) Detroit Lions = 11-5 (431-375)

3.) Dallas Cowboys = 11-5 (471-305)

Won't talk about the ending here, more just to say I really enjoyed the rest of that game and a potential rematch in teh divisional round. Just great matchups everyhwere. The Lions defensive secondary improvement over the year has been fun to watch, and is needed against whoever they would go up against Divisional Roudn onwards. Their OL did a great job against Dallas's pass rushers most of the time. On the Dallas side, Prescott to Cooks is improving every week and getting those secondary pass catchers involved will be huge. Defense finally showed a bit more calmness and down to down strength than in recent weeks when they were getting blown off the ball.

2.) San Francisco 49ers = 12-4 (471-277)
1.) Baltimore Ravens = 13-3 (473-263)

These are teh best two teams in the NFL by some distance. I hope we get a rematch in teh Super Bowl. I just know the NFL rarely gives us such gifts.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Baltimore Ravens = 13-4

2.) Buffalo Bills = 11-6
3.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-6

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 10-7

5.) Cleveland Browns = 11-6

6.) Miami Dolphins = 11-6

7.) Houston Texans = 10-7

NFC

1.) San Francisco 49ers = 12-5
2.) Dallas Cowboys = 12-5
3.) Detroit Lions = 12-5