NFL 2020: Week 13 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Tank for Trevor" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-11  (152-322)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-10  (227-325)

Oh the fun race of 2020, forget the fight for the AFCs top seed or NFCs top seed (though admittedly with only the #1 getting a bye those are more meaningful), seeing if the Jets can manage to hold off the Jags. That said, the gap between these two teams in actual performance is giant. The Jaguars have been far better than the Jets, including a few close losses the past few weeks. Both need a QB, and by all accounts there are other good players aside from Trevor Lawrence, so that takes some of the heat off. By the way, how in the world did David Caldwell manage to last nearly eight seasons in charge with just one season with anything approaching success. A career record of 37-86 is bonkers mostly because you never get the chance to do the job for that long when the track record is so bad.

Tier II - The "Slightly less tanking for not Trevor" Trio

30.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-8-1  (230-289)
29.) Dallas Cowboys  =  3-8  (251-359)

28.) Detroit Lions  =  4-7  (252-328)

In theory none of these teams need to have challenges at QB. The Bengals just drafted Joe Burrow and while he had a terrible injury, enough players have returned from it to play well (forget Wentz, let's talk about Watson). They should be set, and they have far more problems elsewhere to fix - most notably an OL. For the Cowboys, they could just do the smart thing and re-sign Dak. They are a bad 3-8, and while they were bad by W-L with Prescott those were close games they lost at the gun, not shellacking at the hands of a wounded Washington team. For the Lion, well now that Quinn and Patricia are gone, the next big decision is Stafford. They could keep him, but he could be a valuable trade asset. The Lions may silently have a lot of talent as its hard to know just how much the mismanagement and bad coaching cost them, but enough regimes haven't figured out Stafford that I don't know if the next Detroit brain trust does so.

Tier III - The "We have to talk about that" Uno

27.) Denver Broncos  =  4-7  (209-298)

The biggest unanswered question I have about the Broncos ridiculous situation was why didn't they just postpone the game a few days to see if any of hte Broncos QBs could play. In the end, all three of the guys got cleared after a few days. If I'm the Broncos, I'm furious - but if I'm any team challenging with the Saints I would too. What I will say is the Broncos continued ability to play well defensively is a massive credit to Fangio. What really hurts is not having the ability to truly grade Lock this year.

Tier IV - The "It's still comical" Trio

26.) New York Giants  =  4-7  (214-253)

25.) Washington Football Team  =  4-7  (241-243)

24.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-7-1  (237-277)

I still don't understand how this division could possibly still be this bad. And it only gets worse. The Giants had a nice few weeks winning three out of four, and then Daniel Jones gets hurt. The Football Team has a shockingly good point differential but I have serious questions still on their offense and their upcoming schedule is just brutal. I still think the Eagles are the most talented team, but they have the worst OL I've seen in a long time, a QB that has been ruined by said OL, and a brutal schedule as well. Still have no clue who will win the division - all I know is that team is guaranteed to win its opening playoff game, just like the 2010 Seahawks. What I know more absolutely, though, is unlike the NFC West in 2010, the NFC East will not be the best division in the sport in three year's time.

Tier V - The "Lesser Tier Spoilers" Trio

23.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-8  (280-300)

22.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  3-8  (277-300)

21.) Chicago Bears  =  5-6  (216-250)

These three teams have had their moments, be it the Chargers nearly winning three or so more games than they've won, or the Bears starting 5-1 (yes, that happened). These three are all good enough to pick off another game or two even against good competition, like the Panthers with Green Bay and the Saints (doubt they win either, but if they do it could easily decide the #1 seed in the NFC). The Chargers have both the Patriots and Raiders, two teams fighting for their wild card lives. The Bears in theory are just a game back of the Bucs since they have a head-to-head win, and an easy schedule ahead. I have no idea if Trubisky is good enough to make a run, but in reality the path is there. If nothing else, their game against the Vikings could decide who has a shot of unseating the Bucs.

Tier VI - The "Upper Tier Spoilers" Trio

20.) Houston Texans  = 4-7  (268-297)
19.) Atlanta Falcons  =  4-7  (295-281)

18.) New England Patriots  =  5-6  (229-255)

The Patriots have some glimmer of hope of the playoffs but it will be really tight, sitting two losses behind the 7-4 Colts that currently hold the #7 seed (to say nothing of the 6-4 Ravens and 6-5 Raiders - granted the Pats beat both those two teams). For the Falcons and Texans, both are way out of it mainly because they entered the season with fairly dead-end coaching situations and let it fly for no reason. Both teams have become a lot better since the coaches were fired, and the Falcons right now are downright scary - as a spoiler. Specifically for Tampa, having both their games against the Falcons still to play is not an ideal position. For the Texans, everything is about DeShaun Watson. Losing Fuller will hurt - might have helped if they had a certain Nuke Hopkins still around - but he is good enough to win a couple games on his own. If anything, he's quietly having a great year and if they can get the right coach around him, the Texans can jump up very quickly next year.

Tier VII - The "Ships passing through the night?" Trio

17.) Minnesota Vikings  =  5-6  (292-305)
16.) San Francisco 49ers  =  5-6  (261-254)

15.) Arizona Cardinals  =  6-5  (304-258)

The Cardinals are flailing a bit as teams are getting slightly better at playing the Murray offense and it will be interesting if more teams do what the Patriots did and just outright double Nuke Hopkins. For them, they are holding onto that #7 spot but it will be tough heading out the season given the schedule ahead for them. For the Vikings and 49ers both are right there - the Vikings with a great chance in the next two weeks with the Jags at home and then a big wild-card game at Tampa in two weeks. For the 49ers likely they can't get there but I haven't seen a team be able to adjust so well to losing great players like this in a long, long time. It is clear they are still one of the best teams in teh NFC had they been healthy. Somehow they may sneak in anyway.

Tier VIII - The "What's going on here?" trio

14.) Cleveland Browns  =  8-3  (265-286)
13.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-5  (292-319)

12.) Miami Dolphins  =  7-4  (284-205)

A week ago, the Browns were 7-3 with a bad point differential. Now they're 8-3 with barely a better one. I have no idea how this has happened. Given they have the Giants, Jets and maybe a backup-filled Steelers team in Week 17, it is likely they win 10+ games, and might easily end the season with a negative point differential. Still don't know how this is happening. For the Raiders, I believe they are a better team than last year's vintage that was similarly 6-4 through 10 games before a 1-5 finish. That team was bad by most metrics through ten games. This team was decent before being absolutely hammered. Maybe it was a weird week, an early East-Coast game. Who knows. They have a reasonably easy schedule down the stretch but have so little margin for error. For the Dolphins - well they have a point differential befitting a 7-4 team. I still don't buy all of it as so much is strained by return TDs and turnovers and the like, but sometimes that stuff just lasts a full season. 

Tier IX - The "It's not their year, man" Trio

11.) Indianapolis Colts  =  7-4  (302-253)
10.) Baltimore Ravens  =  6-5  (282-214)

9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  7-5  (344-280)

I'm keeping the Ravens here out of respect because they got screwed over by COVID. Now, it was their own strength & conditioning coach seemingly as patient zero in their facility, but still it is amazing how many high profile Ravens had to sit out. If Lamar can come back on next Tuesday, they do have an easy enough schedule to still make a run but a lot is now against them. What does help is their head to head win over the Colts giving them a nice tiebreaker edge. The Colts as a team also got bit by the COVID last week with Buckner being out, but more worryingly was the offense after Costanzo left the game. The team is still good, with an easy schedule upcoming, but they've given themselves no margin for error. For the Bucs, they too have less margin for error than it may seem, given their losses to the Rams and Bears (potential Wild Card contenders), and a game against hte Vikings left. That said, the schedule sets up nicely for a 4-0 finish and everyone hopping back on the bandwagon ignoring Brady is nearly incapable against pressure and their defense can give up a lot of yards if they aren't getting pressure.

Tier X - The "Good, not great' Trio

8.) Tennessee Titans  =  8-3  (324-289)

7.) Los Angeles Rams  =  7-4  (263-215)

6.) Buffalo Bills  =  8-3  (299-282)

These three teams are all good, if not very good. They all have high ceilings and relatively high floors. Problem for me is they hit the floor far more often than the ceiling. I'll say this, the Titans offense and Rams defense have been two of my favorite units this year. The Titans  offense has been fantastic to watch for a full year now, especially since they've finally found a real weapon on the outside in AJ Brown and are feeding him like so. With the Rams, obviously Donald and Ramsey are brilliant but what surprises me is the consistency of their pass coverage. They are so often right there with a receiver even on contested catches. For the Bills, Allen is very good and so is Diggs. Quietly the defense has been better the last few weeks, and if they can even get close to approaching their 2019 play this could be a sleeper AFC team.

Tier XI - The "Great, not amazing" Trio

5.) Seattle Seahawks  =  8-3  (341-304)

4.) Green Bay Packers  =  8-3  (349-283)
3.) New Orleans Saints  =  9-2  (326-225)

To me these three teams all can win the Super Bowl without too much needing to go their way. For the Seahawks and Packers, they just need their QB to get hot for four games, which is definitely doable. We may think the Packers are overly susceptible given games like their disaster in Tampa, but so, it seems, is Tampa. The receivers around him are healthy now. For the Seahawks, their defense has really improved ever since Dunlap showed up. Might be a factor of opponents but the defense had to improve from 'historically bad.' For the Saints, so much is going to be if Brees can come back and be healthy. There has to be skepticism given you have to figure rib injuries will be tough to come back from at 100%. The Hill offense is not going to work against real teams (read: teams that can play a QB), but that defense, much like Seattle, has improved so drastically from the start of the season.

Tier XII - The "... And now for the Amazings" Duo

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  11-0  (317-188)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  10-1  (348-238)

The Steelers have two big games left on their schedule, the Bills on the road in two weeks (a great game, to be honest, on Sunday Night) and then the Colts at home two weeks later. 16-0 is definitely a possibility at this point, but let's remember aside from our friends the 2007 Patriots, all the teams that reached the 11-0 point ended up losing to teams you wouldn't expect, be it the 2011 Chiefs (maybe the weirdest), the 2015 Falcons, the 2009 Jets and Cowboys (admittedly, a good team), or 1997 Broncos. Anyway, that defense remains spectacular but we'll have to see the Dupree injury and the impact there. For the Chiefs, they are the best team in my eyes, but its worrying how often they've let teams back into games. A 110 point differential through eleven games isn't bad, but it isn't truly great either. Mahomes and that offense is incredible, but even in the Bucs games, a fumble, poor red zone play and a bevy of holding penalties gave them only 27 points. But we're clearly picking at nits here.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Carolina Panthers (4-8),  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)

15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10)  @  Minnesota Vikings (5-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)  @  New York Jets (0-11)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1)  @  Miami Dolphins (7-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

12.) Detroit Lions (4-7)  @  Chicago Bears (5-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Dallas Cowboys (3-8)  @  Baltimore Ravens (6-5)  (TNF - FOX)

10.) Denver Broncos (4-7)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)  (SNF - NBC)

9.) Washington Football Team (4-7)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-0)  (MNF - TBD) 
8.) New York Giants (4-7)  @  Seattle Seahawks (8-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

7.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1)  @  Green Bay Packers (8-3)  (4:25 - CBS)

6.) Indianapolis Colts (7-4)  @  Houston Texans (4-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

5.) New England Patriots (5-6)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (3-8)  (4:25 - CBS)
4.) New Orleans Saints (9-2)  @  Atlanta Falcons (4-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Buffalo Bills (8-3)  @  San Francisco 49ers (5-6)  (MNF - ESPN)

2.) Los Angeles Rams (7-4)  @  Arizona Cardinals (6-5)  (4:05 - FOX)
1.) Cleveland Browns (8-3)  @  Tennessee Titans (8-3)  (1:00 - CBS)