Lounging Pass: NFL 2020: Week 12 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Dreaming of Trevor" Duo

32.) New York Jets = 0-10 (149-302)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 1-9 (202-298)

At this point it is so clear who the bottom two teams are, but in reality the Jags are really bad, but something a bit forgotten by just how bad the Jets are. Anyone relative to the Jets seems ok. And in reality the Jags, easily the worst looking team on paper heading into the year, is playing harder and keeping most games closer than the Jets. There is a chance they can snatch the #1 pick if they end up with the same record as the Jets - which would be awful for the Jets fans but probably more deserving for the Jags.

Tier II - The "Are you kidding me?" Uno

30.) Cincinnati Bengals = 2-7-1 (213-270)

Man, that was just awful. I had such strong flashbacks to the last #1 pick QB the Bengals had, when Carson Palmer tore his knee. Granted, that was in a playoff game with a Bengals team fully on the rise. This is not that. This Bengals team is far away from that 2005 vintage. The Bengals though have some talent around them and now should be able to get a top pick around Burrow. I still believe in Joe, but it is clear he needs much better protection to avoid a David Carr-esque career.

Tier III - The "It still astounds me the NFC East is this bad, Pt.1" Duo

29.) Dallas Cowboys = 3-7 (235-318)

28.) Washington Football Team = 3-7 (200-227)

It is so staggering how bad the NFC East is as a division. Like the most likely out come is a 6-9-1 or 6-10 winner - and if anything that needs a team to go 3-3 to finish. These two are to me less likely. Getting Dalton back could bring some stability to the Cowboys. For the Football Team, the defense remains quite strong but they haven't been able to remain competitive with any team above .500 so far. In the end, it will come down to which team can steal division games and I think these two are just unlikely to do so.

Tier IV - The "Low-end Spoilers" Trio

27.) Denver Broncos = 4-6 (206-267)

26.) Detroit Lions = 4-6 (227-287)
25.) Atlanta Falcons = 3-7 (252-275)

None of these three teams is very good, with likely 6-10 or, at best 7-9, finishes ahead. The Broncos defense continuing to be decent in absence of Von Miller is still surprising, Lock is a mess, but there is enough talent around him that they could have a bright future. A lot will depend on guys like Jeudy. For the Lions, there a hyperactive team that can easily put their shutout behind them and play well... only to maybe get blasted again. The Falcons are just what they are - what's been most sad is a bit of a loss in Ryan's play of late. I'm more certain than ever that either Ryan or Stafford (or both) will be elsewhere next season. Hopefully for the love of Detroit, so will Matt Patricia.

Tier V - The "Seriously, this shit again NFC East" Uno

24.) Philadelphia Eagles = 3-6-1 (220-254)
23.) New York Giants = 3-7 (195-236)

Again, it's incredible how bad this division is. I think a lot of this NFC East reverence is not just a memories of a long-gone 1980s brilliance, but more that when NBC took over Sunday Night Football and turned that into the premier showcase, the NFC East had a nice run from 2006-2010, especially those first two years having both Wild Cards. Of course, that did not in any way last.... Alas, the Giants to me are the best team in this division, with a defense that plays at a competent level each week. If they can protect Jones and Jones can cut his turnovers at all, they should win the division. I don't know if we should credit Joe Judge too much for a rookie seaosn going 7-9, but that might be a great accomplishment.

Tier VI - The "High-end Spoilers" Quinto

22.) Carolina Panthers = 4-7 (253-272)
21.) Minnesota Vikings = 4-6 (264-278)
20.) Los Angeles Chargers = 3-7 (260-273)
19.) Houston Texans = 3-7 (227-272)

18.) San Francisco 49ers = 4-6 (238-234)

There's an outside shot for the Vikings or 49ers to make some late run, but in reality all five of these teams are too far out to reasonably expect playoffs. That's what happens when there is somehow just on 5-5 team after 10-games. The Panthers are among the more schizophrenic teams in the league. The Vikings could have theoretically been more in the race had they not blown that game, but they've done well to stabilize the defense. The Thielen covid issue is just the worst time. The Texans still have talent and Watson has remained great but they just had too big an issue to dive out of. For the 49ers, Mullens will remain key for them - it's a testament to their team building they are treading water with the spate of injuries they've faced.

Tier VII - The "Maybe it isn't too late?" Duo

17.) New England Patriots = 4-6 (209-238)

16.) Chicago Bears = 5-5 (191-209)

The Bears are the league's only 5-5 team which is hilarious. It may seem interesting, putting them one loss behind the Buccaneers for the last wild card spot (especially given they have the head-to-head win), but less so when you remember they were 5-1. The defense is still excellent however. For the Patriots the defense is a disaster, but Newton's growing rapport with Damiere Byrd and returning control of the offense gives them a chance to be a version of the Raiders - aim for significant ball control to pull games out. Both are good enough to either make a chase or ruin a lot of dreams.

Tier VIII - The "Fun but probably not great Wild Card teams" Trio

15.) Miami Dolphins = 6-4 (264-202)

14.) Cleveland Browns = 7-3 (238-261)
13.) Arizona Cardinals = 6-4 (287-238)

The Dolphins got a little sobering dose of reality there - life is harder when you aren't pulling a return or defensive TD each game. The Tua benching is weird, but it's good they're going rihgt back to Tua with no issue. He is their future, even if they may not be a playoff team this year - they never were supposed to be one. For the Browns, they keep winning despite Mayfield doing next to nothing. While they are closing in on their first playoff season in eighteen years, the fact that Mayfield is such a little part of that is a problem. For the Cardinals, Murray has been fine and the team has good talent but it might be a year early in the NFL's best divsion.

Tier IX - The "More fun and maybe great Wild Card round teams" Duo

12.) Buffalo Bills = 7-3 (272-265)
11.) Las Vegas Raiders = 6-4 (286-276)

The Bills have been on a bye ever sinee their loss in the Hail Mary game, and return still a game up on the Dolphins. The Bills are a very good team but its beyond time waiting for their defense to fix itself. For the Raiders, we never expected the defense to fix itself. Both teams are being carried by offenses with QBs playing out of their minds at the moment. It's enough of a sample size to not think that will change. For Carr, he's been playing well for two years now, but his renewed sense of throwing deep is something to behold. Both teams have fairly easy schedules to take advantage of and truly should be playoff teams at this point.

Tier X - The "Ships passing in the night" Duo

10.) Baltimore Ravens = 6-4 (268-195)
9.) Tennessee Titans = 7-3 (279-259)

That said, because of the presence of these two teams, very likely one of these four teams will not be in the playoffs (or the Colts drop out). The Ravens not making it are shocking, but that's what happens when you drop a few winnable games (this one, the Steelers game) and have a bunch of injuries and strange drops in play (more talking about guys like Hollywood Brown as much as Lamar). The Ravens are still by most metrics a top team but it's been a while since they looked like one. For the Titans, this was a good recover after a tough loss to the Colts, right ahead of another one. At this point we have to see this team as what it has been from teh second that Tannehill took over last year - a flexible play-action and smash-mouth offense that consistently puts up 24-34 points a game. That is still a very good play.

Tier XI - The "Middle tier NFC contenders" Trio

8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 7-4 (320-253)

7.) Seattle Seahawks = 7-3 (318-287)

6.) Green Bay Packers = 7-3 (308-258)

The Buccaneers have the best resume of these teams in this tier in terms of the number of blowout wins. Hell, they just had one eight days ago. Problem is they've also had more stinkers than either of these two (two poor losses, compared to one for the Seahawks and Packers). All three I think are still a little bit behind the two NFC teams I have above them. They have more weaknesses, be it the ongoing inability for Brady to look comfortable in that scheme, and of course the Seahawks and Packers overall defenses. What separates Seattle and Green Bay is they have bigger trump card - in that Wilson and Rodgers are operating at a different level than Brady is right now. It might just be that simple.

Tier XII - The "Just solid, good, teams" Trio

5.) Los Angeles Rams = 7-3 (243-192)
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 7-3 (276-208)
3.) New Orleans Saints = 8-2 (295-222)

All three of these teams - even a Saints version without Brees for a few more games - are just good in all phases. They probably have lower ceilings than the three teams before them (though I would argue that is untrue for the Saints - they of the 38-3 win over Tampa), but they have very high floors. Rivers has settled down his game and is starting to build a rapport with TY Hilton. The Rams offense is very good, if a little too in love with jet sweeps and the like. It's really the defenses of these three that give me great hope and comfort. Brandon Staley (Rams) and Matt Eberflus (Colts) have coached great, great defenses around a few blue chip players (Donald & Ramsey, Buckner & Leonard). For the Saints, it took a while for their defense to come together but it certainly has the last five or so games. This is an area of play where I think each of these teams has an outside shot of a Super Bowl if their play can reach their ceiling - what helps is I think they can avoid upsets better than the three below them.

Tier XIII - The "Could we get a 16-0 v 15-1 Title Game?" Duo

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 10-0 (298-174)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 9-1 (321-214)

There's a bit of an undercurrent right now that the Steelers are a 10-0 team flying under the radar. I get that, mainly because until the last few weeks they've not always dominated teams. But now they have a point differential, and by far the best defense in the league, befitting a 10-0 team. That said, I do think we're sleeping a bit on the Chiefs as well - a defending champ that is rolling at 9-1, also with a good point differential, and an offense that can play out of its mind at its best. These two won't play in the regular season but we could be in line for an incredible playoff matchup between these two.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Miami Dolphins (6-4) @ New York Jets (0-10) (1:00 - CBS)

15.) Cleveland Browns (7-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) (1:00 - CBS)

14.) New York Giants (3-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Houston Texans (3-7) @ Detroit Lions (4-6) (THX - CBS)

12.) Carolina Panthers (4-7) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-6) (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Washington Football Team (3-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-7) (THX - FOX)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (6-4) @ New England Patriots (4-6) (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Seattle Seahawks (7-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1) (MNF - ESPN)

8.) Las Vegas Raider (6-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-7) (1:00 - CBS)

7.) New Orleans Saints (8-2) @ Denver Broncos (4-6) (4:05 - FOX)
6.) San Francisco 49ers (4-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-3) (4:05 - FOX)

5.) Los Angeles Chargers (3-7) @ Buffalo Bills (7-3) (1:00 - CBS)

4.) Chicago Bears (5-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-3) (SNF - NBC)
3.) Tennessee Titans (7-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (7-3) (1:00 - CBS)

2.) Baltimore Ravens (6-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0) (THX - NBC)