Lounging Pass: NFL 2020: Week 14 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Tank for Trevor: Back on T(r)an(c)k" Duo

32.) New York Jets = 0-12 (180-353)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 1-11 (251-352)

Just a bizarre day from trying to understand if the fact the Jets should have won and the Jaguars nearly won were positive or negative developments for these two teams. It's clear they'll end up picking #1-2 in the draft barring some unforeseen improvements. There is more than just Trevor Lawrence in this draft from a QB perspective, be it Justin Fields or even Trey Lance who is Wentz-ing his way into the top of the draft. They'll both get a QB and long term whoever gets the better QB will be better off. No idea why that will be though.

Tier II - The "It's Just Sad" Trio

30.) Cincinnati Bengals = 2-9-1 (237-308)
29.) Dallas Cowboys = 3-9 (268-393)

28.) Philadelphia Eagles = 3-8-1 (253-307)

Surprisingly - at least to me - the Cowboys are teh team with the second worst point differential in the NFL, sitting nicely halfway between the Jags and the Jets. What's odd is I don't see their biggest issue being the QB play - at the very least in the games Dalton has played in. That sentiment is very much not the case with teh Eagles, who have had a really nice season defensively but seen their scatter-shot, shattered QB throw it away well too much. For the Bengals, they too, shall we say have QB issues. In theory they have the 'brightest' outlook with a settled QB situation going into next year. I think that more than anything shows the issue with these teams, that the one with a bad roster and a QB rehabbing a serious injury is probably the best in terms of least drama and intrigue.

Tier III - The "Very much barely alive Spoilers" Quadro

27.) Houston Texans = 4-8 (288-323)

26.) Carolina Panthers = 4-8 (280-300)

25.) Denver Broncos = 4-8 (225-320)

24.) Los Angeles Chargers = 3-9 (277-345)

The NFL has shockingly little 'middle class' teams with just three teams at 6-6 through twelve games. For these four, you can make arguments at their best they've been decent. The Texans are definitely more talented - especially at QB. The Panthers have had great games. The Broncos just played the Chiefs closely and have been ravaged by injuries. The Chargers until last week were only losing in ridiculous ways in close games. There is a chance they can all pull another upset or two. For their future outlook, I would separate out the Texans who have the best QB of the bunch, but taking them aside I would rank them in this order. The Panthers need an option at QB that is more stable than Bridgewater. The Broncos maybe do as well but their also missing a lot of talent that should return. For the Chargers, we'll see how Herbert can rebound from that performance.

Tier IV - The "Lets just start over!" Trio

23.) Chicago Bears = 5-7 (246-284)
22.) Detroit Lions = 5-7 (286-358)
21.) Atlanta Falcons = 4-8 (311-302)

Remember when the Bears were 5-1? Remember when the Lions had so much hype in preseason? Remember when some people believed in the Falcons for the umpteenth year? Ok, that last one might be a bit of a stretch. For the Lions, it is funny that their big issue this year was the same one so many people glossed over when heaping preseason expectations on them - Matt Patricia was a disaster. Bevell had a nice first game but eneeded some luck. For the Lions and Falcons, their biggest decisions will remain what they end up doing with their long-time QBs. I guess you can say that too for the Bears, but they are in a much tougher spot. There is still talent in the short term (QB aside) but Trubisky gives a ceiling to this team and they don't have the cap room nor raft capital to try to raise that ceiling higher in the short term. For the Falcons, the fact they'll likely end up 6-10 or so with a close to even point differential only means they'll get a lot of 'this team was way better than its record' love heading into next season. Often that is actually a sign of improvement potential, but one 43-6 win does skew things a bit.

Tier V - The "Better luck next year" Uno

20.) San Francisco 49ers = 5-7 (285-288)

So injured but still so reasonably good. Their defense was torn apart by Josh Allen but to me that says a lot more about Josh Allen than it does the 49ers who have lost their pass rush center when Bosa went down. The amount of injuries the 49ers have had to try to overcome this year is shocking; and it is tough for any team to do so well to be treading water point differential wise. They clearly have such good talent and coaching that you can picture it all working next year. And I do hopethat is the case, but I wonder if they missed out having so many players miss a season at their various peaks (Bosa, Kittle, etc.). Also, they have a decision at QB - maybe a landing spot for a Matt Ryan if they want to go for a splurge (admittedly have no idea if they have the cap space for it).

Tier VI - The "NFC East on the Rise?" Duo

19.) Washington Football Team = 5-7 (264-260)

18.) New York Giants = 5-7 (231-265)

A lot of people are starting to give the NFC East kudos - well these two teams at least. And for good reason. The Football Team has a positive point differential for the year and just knocked off the Steelers on the road. The Giants have an OK point differential, have won four straight, and gone 5-3 in their last eight with three close losses (by 3, 1 and 2 points). Both are defense first teams and while the Football Team is more conventional in their defensive strength, getting to watch Patrick Graham turn a bunch of randos into a decent defense has been a sight. Gun to my head, I think the Giants take the division, but either way I think the 5-4 Wild Card game is not going to be a total write-off.

Tier VII - The "Soft underbelly of the NFL" Quadro

17.) Arizona Cardinals = 6-6 (332-296)

16.) Minnesota Vikings = 6-6 (319-329)

15.) Las Vegas Raiders = 7-5 (323-347)
14.) New England Patriots = 6-6 (274-255)

As I said, there are just three 6-6 teams this year. Haven't checked but I figure that is an NFL record-low. Add to that group the Raiders - spiritually a 6-6 team - and you get these medium level of the league. The Cardinals are 1-4 in their last five, while the Vikings are 5-1 in their last six. The Patriots are 4-2 in their last six the Raiders being 3-4 in their last seven. None have particularly easy schedules left, but the Cards and Vikings - I truly believe the worst two teams in this set - have a good shot of getting the #7 seed. They are a study in opposites - the Vikings reaching a fairly high ceiling with a defense getting more experienced and Thielen being back. The Cardinals a higher ceiling with Murray and Hopkins able to dominate games. For the Raidrs and Patriots, neither team is great but I don't think there is as much of a gap between these two and the AFC teams in the next group.

Tier VIII - The "Below market Contenders" Quadro

13.) Miami Dolphins = 8-4 (303-212)
12.) Cleveland Browns = 9-3 (306-321)
11.) Seattle Seahawks = 8-4 (353-321)

10.) Tennessee Titans = 8-4 (359-326)

Speaking of - a limited set of 6-6 teams (and quietly just three 7-5 teams) leaves a whole lot of teams at the 8-4 or better mark. The Dolphins still have a ridiculous +91 point differential that hasn't fallen off even when they're not getting 1+ return TDs a game. The defense is genuinely good, though admittedly a weak schedule has helped. For the Browns, they're the reverse Dolphins - while their point differential is embarrassing for a team on a 12-win pace, in two games they were outscored by +63 points, and in the other 10 are a +78. They'll get a chance to avenge those two embarrassments as well. The Seahawks and Titans are high variance teams that are strikingly similar in point differential ad performance. They have poor defenses needing to rely on gimmicks to get pressure. They have QBs who have such a high peak. The running games are different, fine, but overall they are similar high ceiling, low floor teams in a year where that level may win out.

Tier IX - The "Correctly Rated Contenders" Quadro

9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 7-5 (344-280)
8.) Baltimore Ravens 2= 7-5 (316-231)

7.) Indianapolis Colts = 8-4 (328-273)

6.) Los Angeles Rams = 8-4 (301-243)

I truly think that any of these four teams could win the Super Bowl. I don't really beleive that about any in the group above (even the Seahawks). I hte the fact I'll admit this about teh Bucs but they have a high enough ceiling. For the other three, it's more about their lower floors. The Ravens have an easy schedule to close the season and can be going right into 'year after you lose as a #1 seed you get hot at the right time' mode, though I still feel their OL injuries will doom them. For the Colts, with their defense back healthy they are back to doing what they've done all season. The offense still hasn't hit a great game - they have for a few halves. TY Hilton is slowly regaining form which will be huge. For the Rams, they're just really good team but my only real worry is the difficulty they have translating yards into points - case in point having a ridiculous edge in yards and first downs against teh Cards early but barely leading at the half.

Tier X - The "Almost great: Duo

5.) Buffalo Bills = 9-3 (333-306)

4.) Green Bay Packers = 9-3 (379-299)

Neither team is infallible - obviously the record as much as says that. Both have had bad losses - be it the Bills undressing in Nashville or the Packers similar disaster in Tampa Bay. But at their peak both teams are potential Super Bowl contenders. Both teams ceilings are dependent on their defenses playing at their optimal level. The Bills have stabilized slightly the last month, but that is mostly due to the secondary raising its play. They need their pass rush to return close to 2019 form - as do the Packers. These are smaller nits to pick, however, as both offenses are very good. It is time to stop doubing Josh Allen has reached a new level of competency. Rodgers clearly has returned to that as well. The offenses are schemed so well, operate as such a high level. Both teams have tremendus upside, with significant downside as well. To me the likely outcome is 1-2 great playoff games and then a clunker when they meet one of the teams in the group above.

Tier XI - The "Does Brees Matter?" Uno

3.) New Orleans Saints = 10-2 (347-241)

The Saints are now 8-0 in the last two years when Drew Brees does not play. I should admit they are also 15-5 when Brees does play so it isn't like he's truly an inhibitor to their success. But I do wonder as we scan outwards for the Saints how much we should take from that knowledge. The defense is good when Brees plays, but consistently reaches higher levels when he's out - it is clear defensive performance led them to the 5-0 record last year and 3-0 this time around - slowly becoming the leagues best defense these past two months. They may be forced to keep that up over the regular season if/when Brees returns, mainly because Brees himself hasn't played at even the level of last year.

Tier XII - The "Is this the best you have?" Duo

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 11-1 (334-211)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-1 (370-254)

I'm not going to overreact to the Steelers loss, mainly because they still have a good shot at the #1 seed, and then because it was a while coming. The Steelers were never 16-0 good - so if anything it may help them to avoid 16-0 questions (felt the same way about teh 2009 Colts, granted they went about it in maybe the worst possible way). The Steelers need to shift their offense - I'm not sure what is driving this hyper-quick passing game approach but it has stopped working. For the Chiefs, it would be nice for them to go out and beat a team 45-17 for once. It's been a while since they ever just destroyed a team. It would put a lot of silent doubters to rest, at least for a while, if we can just get a doninant game again from this group.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 15-1

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 14-2

3.) Buffalo Bills = 12-4

4.) Indianapolis Colts = 11-5

5.) Baltimore Ravens = 11-5

6.) Cleveland Browns = 11-5

7.) Tennessee Titans = 10-6

NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers = 13-3

2.) New Orleans Saints = 13-3

3.) Los Angeles Rams = 12-4

4.) New York Giants = 7-9

5.) Seattle Seahawks = 11-5

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 10-6

7.) Minnesota Vikings = 8-8

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Dalas Cowboys (3-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1) (1:00 - FOX)

15.) Denver Broncos (4-8) @ Carolina Panthers (4-8) (1:00 - CBS)

14.) Houston Texans (4-8) @ Chicago Bears (5-7) (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Atlanta Falcons (5-7) @ Los Angeles Chargers (3-9) (4:25 - FOX)

12.) New Orleans Saints (10-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1) (4:25 - FOX)
11.) New York Jets (0-12) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-4) (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Tennessee Titans (8-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11) (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Green Bay Packers (9-3) @ Detroit Lions (5-7) (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Bad v Bad" Sunday,

8.) Washington Football Team (5-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-7) (4:25 - FOX)

7.) Arizona Cardinals (6-6) @ New York Giants (5-7) (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Bad v Good" Sunday

6.) New England Patriots (6-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (8-4) (TNF - FOX)

5.) Minnesota Vikings (6-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "The Brady & Belichick Pendulum Swings Again!" Thursday and Sunday,

4.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) @ Miami Dolphins (8-4) (1:00 - CBS)

3.) Baltimore Ravens (7-5) @ Cleveland Browns (9-3) (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Reality Check?" Sunday and Monday,

2.) Indianapolis Colts (8-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-5) (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Battle of the AFC Wild Card Stars" Sunday,