NFL 2020: Week 15 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "True Tankers" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-13  (183-393)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-12  (261-383)

It's fun that these two teams have been the worst two teams basically since Week 4 or so when we realized the Jaguars Week 1 win was something of a mirage. The Jets at this point probably need to go 0-16 to get that #1 seed as the Jags are going to make a great run at 1-15. For the Jets, my biggest curiosity is to see what they get for Sam Darnold in a trade. Can they get a team to give up a 2nd, or is he seen as so broken its just a 4th or so. For the Jags, my offseason wonder is who they can convince to be their head coach if they don't hve the #1 pick. For both teams, these last three weeks are completely meaningless, and given that we've seen two other 0-16 teams in the last twelve years, not even especially notable.

Tier II - The "Almost as bad" Uno

30.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-10-1  (244-338)

The Bengals are better than he Jets or Jaguars, but the Bengals without Joe Burrow might be worse (at least worse than the Jaguars). I think it says a lot about the potential for Joe Burrow that the Bengals seemed somewhat competent when he was the starter. Protection to me still is the biggest need they'll have, as defensively they are average and the weapons are still OK. If they can protect Burrow - especially as he returns from his ACL tear - they could be a darkhorse next year. The other big question will be do you cut bait on Zak Taylor, knowing that Burrow is enough of a sure thing you can probably get a lot of coaches willing to take it on - especially his old college coordinator in Joe Brady (now the Panthers OC).

Tier III - The "Probably too bad to be Spoilers" Trio

29.) Dallas Cowboys  =  4-9  (298-400)

28.) Houston Texans  =  4-9  (295-359)

27.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-9  (307-332)

Around these last three games, you get a decent amount of teams that will just fold up shop. I don't think all three are guaranteed for 4-12 - certainly Watson as a player, and the Panthers as a team, are more talented than that. Still, it's all about 2021 for these three. Primarily around what to do with Prescott for the Cowboys, what to do with everything aside from Watson for the Texans, and just finding a QB of the future type for the Panthers. All three are daunting tasks, especailly as the Cowboys likely flirt with doing the stupid thing and not re-signing Prescott.

Tier IV - The "Reasonable spoilers" Trio

26.) Denver Broncos  =  5-8  (257-347)
25.) Detroit Lions  =  5-8  (310-389)
23.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-9  (297-362)

The Broncos have three games to continue to evaluate Drew Lock who has done enough good in parts of two years to probably warrant more time. For the Lions, it is probably three games to drive up Matt Stafford's trade value as they look to hit reset (at least that's what I would focus on). For the Chargers, it is evaluating Anthony Lynn, whom the organization seems to like. All three nicely incentivize winning (arguable in the Lions case though with five wins they aren't in line for a top pick) which makes them a bit more live than the three in teh group worse than them. For the Chargers, I really hope they don't fire Lynn. Aside from that fluke 45-0 loss, they are just -20 in point differential with many close losses. This team still has a lot of pieces from the 12-4 unit of 2018 and Lynn should get another shot. They do need someone better to manage their offense however.

Tier V - The "Mess of the NFC East, Pt. 1" Duo

23.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  4-8-1  (277-328)
22.) New York Giants  =  5-8  (238-291)

The NFC East is becoming stratified now with the Cowboys largely out of it, the Redskins at 6-7 with a positive point differential, and these two in the midle of it. The Eagles are three wins away from perfectly pulling a 2014 Carolina Panthers (won the division at 7-8-1 after a 3-8-1 start), but I do wonder if the Hurts offense gets exposed in a way similar to what they just did to the Taysom Hill offense. It helps that the Eagles defense has quietly been very good all year long, keeping them in games even at the nadir of Wentz's performances. For the Giants, Daniel Jones's fumbling is really worrying at this point. It isn't irredeemable - Tom Brady had notably high fumbles early in his career - but he is ruining what could be a 7-9 division winner with the turnovers.

Tier VI - The "True spoiler" Quadro

21.) Atlanta Falcons  =  4-9  (328-322)
20.) San Francicso 49ers  =  5-8  (300-311)
19.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  7-6  (350-391)

18.) New England Patriots  =  6-7  (277-279)

I'm keeping a 4-9 team here because by any underlying way of looking at them they are more like a 6-7 team, and because they have zero incentive to lose here, with an interim coach coaching for a potential job (I do think a 6-10 finish at least makes the Falcon ask the question on Raheem Morris). For the 49ers, same - and they're way too proud to go away, and way to deep and skilled to fold. For the Raiders and Patriots at this point it is seriously unlikely either team makes the playoffs, but both are good enough for 1-2 more wins just in different ways. The Patriots run game and defense can grind out another win or two, and the Raiders offense can probably pull off another win or two. I do wonder though if either is better off just losing out and giving them the clarity to ask serious questions - particularly Oakland who has to realize how gutted they made their defense and how long a road it still has to travel back to mediocrity.

Tier VII - The "Amazing Race for the #7 spot - oh and the Football Team!" Quadro

17.) Chicago Bears  =  6-7  (282-291)

16.) Washington Football Team  =  6-7  (287-275)

15.) Minnesota Vikings  =  6-7  (333-355)

14.) Arizona Cardinals  =  7-6  (358-303)

In the first year of a 7-team playoff format, it looks like we're going to get a 9-7 or even 8-8 Wild Card team in the NFC. This isn't unprecedented, the NFC had an 8-8 Wild Card in a 6-team format in both 2004 and 2006, and 9-7 Wild Cards are commonplace. Secondly, in the AFC it is reasonably likely a 10-win team misses the playoffs. Anyway, the Bears and Vikings are both similar teams in their high-variance play. They play each other this week with the loser being basically out of it. The Cardinals defense has really picked it up as their offense has become more reliant on Murray breaking plays and Nuke doing Nuke things - it is odd how poorly designed that offense seems at times. For the Football team, we have to admit at this point that defense is really good, particularly up front. The Smith offense is not good, but so far hasn't turned it over very often which is generally enough to eke out another win - probably all they need.

Tier VIII - The "Bottom Tier Contenders" 

13.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-5  (330-245)

12.) Cleveland Browns  =  9-4  (348-368)
11.) Seattle Seahawks  =  9-4  (393-324)

The Dolphins almost did their usual turnover and smoke & mirrors BS into beating the Chiefs. I'm more curious how much of this lasts to next year, but for right now they are doing a great lesser-era Pats imitation - sadly for them this is a very different league than allowed a similar profile 2001 Pats team win a Super Bowl. For the Seahawks, it's amazing how no one is giving even two seconds to a 40-3 win over the Jets. Few teams beat the Jets so absolutely - the defense has continued to play well since getting Dunlap and now Adams back. For the Browns, that was an amazing game but a tough loss. They are not 9-4 good, but they aren't -20 point differntial bad. The offense has looked spectacular the last few weeks, and Mayfield has really improved his pocket presence. To not get sacked yesterday was a real feat given how consistent the Ravens got a rush all around him. The defense struggling that much against the run was surprising but what is good is the Browns have very obvious clear needs that are needs that can get fixed in a draft.

Tier IX - The "Middle Tier Contenders" Trio

10.) Tennessee Titans  =  9-4  (390-336)
9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  8-5  (370-294)

8.) Baltimore Ravens  =  8-5  (363-273)

The Titans rebounded nicely - the Jags really help in that regard. Henry is having another ridiculous season. I do find it a bit concerning how little they've shown they can do if Henry does not have a dominant game - not so much that they haven't performed in those situations, but that those situations haven't come up so often. For the Bucs, it was a nice, clean performance, but Dan Bailey's struggles will make it seem like a much stronger win than it was. The Vikings moved the ball all day aside from strange red zone protection issues. The problems aren't fixed there, and having Atlanta twice down the stretch will give their defense - especially up and down top corner Carlton Davis - a couple nice last tests. For the Ravens, that was a much needed win, and offensively the closest to the 2019 Ravens that we've seen. The passing offense is still way off but at least in this game they got guys open consistently - just drops and bad accuracy from Jackson did them in. The Ravens are still to me the most dangerous Wild Card team in their max potential.

Tier X - The "Just damn good Teams!" Trio

7.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-4  (372-300)

6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  9-4  (325-246)
5.) Buffalo Bills  =  10-3  (359-321)

The Colts can definitely point to the Titans loss as a covid-related fluke, having so many key players miss that game and that game only. They've returned to being a really good team on both sides of the ball thereafter. The rediscovery of TY Hilton has added so much to the offense. For the Rams, its clear their defense is a top-5 defense in the league - what has really impressed me is the level of their pass coverage this year. The offense never scores as much as they should, but if any team can bank on winning 24-20 cnsistently it's them (or the Colts, to be honest). For the Bills, that was such an impressive performance to not panic when nothing went theri way early. The OL stabilized late in the first half, they kept attacking that Diggs matchup, and Allen was able to remain in the pocket throughout. Their defense continued its strong recent play, and if they can replicate that type of performance they are definitely dangerous (and in line to potentially steal the #2 seed).

Tier XI - The "Do we panic?" Duo

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  11-2  (349-237)

3.) New Orleans Saints  =  10-3  (368-265)

Both these two teams suddenly ahve a lot of justifiable questions on their offenses. For the Saints, it is when is Brees going to be ready. Hill ended up with nice stats but that overstates a pretty messy performance. They will need a Brees-led offense to go anywhere in the playoffs. For the Steelers, they have to know at this point they can't rely on this hyper-quick passing game. They don't really need to either unless they have such little faith in Roethlisberger - and while his deep passing has fallen off, his strength and placement on intermediate throws have been fine. Both offenses have potential, and don't need to be anything too special, but more is needed than how they've currently played.

Tier XII - The "Great MVP Race of 2020" Duo

2.) Green Bay Packers  =  10-3  (410-323)
1.) Kansas City  =  12-1  (403-281)

With Mahomes shockingly spotty performance the MVP race is, at least to me, a race. Mahomes is still having a better season, and I would ultimately lean his way, but Rodgers has now passed him on many more known stats (passer rating, TDs, y/a), and has closed teh gap by most advanced numbers. Rodgers is having a special year and while his targets are better in practice than in name (particularly the non-Adams guys) Rodgers has reverted back to his 2012-2014 type brilliance. As far as these two as teams, it's still worrying how often the Chiefs play close games, but at least this time there were reasons (turnovers). Their defense is still very good, but its jarring how bad they are in some forms of situational football (most glaringly short-yardage situations). For the Packers, their pass rush has started to pick up but they'll need more from the Smiths and Clark if they want to make a real run.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  14-2

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  13-3

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  13-3

4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  12-4

5.) Tennessee Titans  =  11-5

6.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-5

7.) Cleveland Browns  =  11-5

NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  13-3

2.) New Orleans Saints  =  12-4
3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  11-5

4.) Washington Football Team  =  7-9

5.) Seattle Seahawks  =  11-5

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  10-6

7.) Arizona Cardinals  =  9-7

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) San Francisco 49ers (5-8)  @  Dallas Cowboys (4-9)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad v Bad" Sunday, 

15.) New York Jets (0-13)  @ Los Angeles Rams (9-4)  (4:05 - FOX)

14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-12)  @  Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

13.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Bad v Good, with little change for the Bad" Sunday & Monday

12.) Carolina Panthers (4-9)  @  Green Bay Packers (10-3)  (SAT - NFLN)

11.) Buffalo Bills (10-3)  @  Denver Broncos (5-8)  (SAT - NFLN)

I call it "This is the best they could do?" Saturday

10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (4-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Detroit Lions (5-8)  @  Tennessee Titans (9-4)  (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers (4-9)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)  (TNF - FOX)

4.) Houston Texans (5-8)  @  Indianapolis Colts (9-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad v. Good with a decent chance for the Bad" Thursday & Sunday,

6.) Cleveland Browns (9-4)  @  New York Giants (5-8)  (SNF - NBC)
5.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1)  @  Arizona Cardinals (7-6)  (4:05 - FOX)

4.) Seattle Seahawks (9-4)  @  Washington Football Team  (6-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Oh yeah, NFC East Fever!" Sunday, 

3.) New England Patriots (6-7)  @  Miami Dolphins (8-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Belichick's Last Stand" Sunday, 

2.) Chicago Bears (6-7)  @  Minnesota Vikings (6-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "The first Loser Leaves Town" Sunday, 

1.) Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)  @  New Orleans Saints (10-3)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Brees, come back Please" Sunday,