Tier A-I - The "Tanking for Trevor" Duo
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 1-13 (275-423)
The Jets ridiculous victory is such an awful moment for that franchise. On the one hand - it's nice for them to avoid the infamy of an 0-16 season, but not when it means you don't get the #1 picks. Especially when by absolutely every metric the Jets still are the worst team in the league. They are still being outscored by 2x - still by far the worst offense while also being a bad defense. One victory does not in any way change that. Now, for the Jags, their run to a 15-loss season has an interesting parallel with the 2001 Panthers, the last team to do such a thing. Of course, because it was an expansion season in 2002 those Panthers didn't get the #1 pick. These Jags, the Panthers 1995 expansion teammate, will be likely doing so this time. Just have to hope Lawrence turns the franchise around for them much like Julius Peppers - the Panthers pick in 2002 - did for them.
Tier A-II - The "Next year can't come fast enough!" Quadro
14.) Cincinnati Bengals = 2-11-1 (XXX-XXX)
13.) Denver Broncos = 5-9 (276-395)
12.) Houston Texans = 4-10 (315-386)
11.) Los Angeles Chargers = 5-9 (327-389)
12.) Houston Texans = 4-10 (315-386)
11.) Los Angeles Chargers = 5-9 (327-389)
All four of these teams have some element of optimism in store for 2021. For three of them, it is their QBs - be it the return of Joe Burrow (who's play looks better week by week when we realize how far they've fallen since he got hurt), and the continuation of Herbert (rebounded nicely from the Pats disaster) and Watson (still a top-5 QB this year, in reality). For the Broncos, I still have no idea if Drew Lock is a long term solution, but I definitely now getting Von Miller and a few of the other defenders back should give them a bit more defensive foundation to allow Lock to really be evaluated against.
Tier A-III - The "Thanks for Playing" Duo
10.) Las Vegas Raiders = 7-7 (377-421)
9.) New England Patriots = 6-8 (289-301)
9.) New England Patriots = 6-8 (289-301)
Two weeks ago, both of these two were deep in the playoff mix, and now they're both essentially eliminated (fully so, in the Pats sense). For the Raiders, in the end the porous defense was just too far to escape. I do hope Carr stays on as the QB - he's certainly earned it but you never know with Gruden. They need to seriously upskill that defense, but that offense should get another year at it. The Patriots on the other hand have a lot more question marks, even when you go outside the QB decision of whether they stick with Newton. The offense is thin everywhere and the defense is a mix of old and questionable talent. It is definitely time to ask the qeustion if this is truly the end of the Patriots run of relevance.
Tier A-IV - The "If only they sneak in!" Duo
8.) Miami Dolphins = 9-5 (352-257)
7.) Cleveland Browns = 10-4 (368-374)
These two are a study in opposites. The Dolphins clinging to a playoff spot but a solid +95 in point differential and a top defense by a decent amount of metrics. For the Browns, they are still a -6, but if you take out two awful games they are fine (of course, true of everyone) and their offense has really come on these last few games, adjusting to the loss of Beckham with aplomb. I don't think either of these teams are serious contenders but one, if not both, are likely making the playoffs. They both have holes to fill and draft capital to do so. Suddenly the AFC is looking very, very crowded. If anything, it is already as we are about to have at least one ten win team not make the playoffs despite adding a seventh playoff team.
Tier A-V - The "Prime Wild Card Round contenders" Trio
6.) Tennessee Titans = 10-4 (436-361)
5.) Baltimore Ravens = 9-5 (403-287)
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-4 (399-320)
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-4 (399-320)
Now, I'll preface this by saying there is a good chance one of these three teams doesn't make the playoffs - even if they all end 11-5 (that's right, we might have an 11-5 team miss the playoffs in a 7-team playoff format!). For the sake of teh top three, there's probably a lot of hope that it is the Ravens that miss out. Their seemingly rolling, but a paper-thin schedule may hide still issues in their passing game. For the Titans and Colts, they're opposites in construction but near equal overall abilities. We can't deny the Titans offense at this point, nor the Colts defense. There is a chance we see a Round 3 between those two in Wild Card Weekend which would be spectacular.
Tier A-VI - The "Ships passing in the night" Duo
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 11-3 (366-264)
2.) Buffalo Bills = 11-3 (407-340)
2.) Buffalo Bills = 11-3 (407-340)
I'll leave the Steelers in this group for one more week, but more because of the nice dichotomy between these two. For the beginning of the season they were both strong but had clear strong units (Steelers defense, Bills offense), with underachieving ones on teh other side. Sadly for the Steelers, the offense has remained underachieving (if not getting outright worse), and the defense is falling - primarily due to injuries. They've given up a track at a #2 seed, but in this year anyway it wouldn't really matter with the bye being gone. For the Bills, it's been the opposite, with their defense slowly improving and their offense remaining a great unit. At this point, Allen is to be trusted and Diggs is a monster. Sadly for the Bills, the #7 seed seems to be a real live wild card but it's amazing to think how far they've come, and more uniquely how far the Steelers have fallen.
Tier A-VII - The "Why can't they just blow teams out" Uno
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 13-1 (435-310)
The Chiefs will likely finish 15-1 or 14-2. They likely will have one of the lesser point differentials of a team which such a record. The last team at that record that had something approaching the Chiefs +125 (or even the plus +145 or so they're on pace for), was probably the 2009 Colts, who ended at +107, but even they were at +146 after fourteen games. The Chiefs have a habit of giving up a late score to make a multi-score game into a one-score game (see their last four wins), but while this can be seen as an annoying trend, it is also defintieyl worrisome that this great team, a defending champ having the best season of any team in the league, continues to skate by more than they should be.
Ranking the NFC Teams
Tier N-I - The "In any other year we wouldn't be this bad" Trio
16.) Carolina Panthers = 4-10 (323-356)
15.) Dallas Cowboys = 5-9 (339-433)
14.) Detroit Lions = 5-9 (335-435)
The AFC is very stratified, with two teams staring 1-15 in the face, and one looking at 15-1. For the NFC, there is none of that, and while there are a decent amount of teams that will end up with 10+ wins, its amazing that so few are in the path of a poor record. The Panthers are not even that bad of a team, but they alternate week to week which one of their units plays bad enough to lose the game. The firing of Marty Hurney is interesting, though I assume Matt Rhule is safe. For the Cowboys, you have to worry if these little offensive outbursts will give them the very wrong idea that they are fine without Dak. And for the Lions, its a bid sad watching what is almost inevitably the end of the Stafford era. In a way though, it gives everyone a chance for a win-win - the Lions needing a housecleaning, and Stafford being a potential skeleton key for a team.
Tier N-II - The "Man, the bottom of the NFC is a mess" Quadro
13.) Philadelphia Eagles = 4-9-1 (303-361)
12.) New York Giants = 5-9 (244-311)
12.) New York Giants = 5-9 (244-311)
11.) Atlanta Falcons = 4-10 (355-353)
10.) San Francisco 49ers = 5-9 (333-352)
Again, because we live in the world of the 2020 NFC East, two of these teams are alive for the playoffs, but one Washington win essentially ends all that. For the Eagles, nothing really matters this point aside from what happens in the offseason with Wentz and Hurts. My guess is there is a very open competition in next year's camp that ultimately Hurts wins and they try to trade Wentz. For the Giants, I still like where this team is going long term, but I will worry about Daniel Jones until he stops turning the ball over so much. For the Falcons and 49ers, they are talented teams but need a lot of direction (Falcons) and health (49ers). For the Falcons, I'll be interested where they go for head coach, and for the 49ers what they do with QB, as no matter how low a ceiling you think Garoppolo has, it is somewhat clear that he's better than Mullens.
Tier N-III - The "NFC North Cycle of Mediocrity" Duo
9.) Minnesota Vikings = 6-8 (360-388)
8.) Chicago Bears = 7-7 (315-318)
The Bears have a shot at nabbing the final playoff spot. I don't care. What's more worrying - or intriguing, if we're being optimistic - is what happens with this team around Trubisky. They are 5-2 when he starts, and while he had some poor games early on he's been more than fine these last two weeks that have helped to save the Bears' season. On the other side, the Vikings offense has been decent enough to think they'll remain with Cousins. The problem for both is fighting for a wild cards seem to be the ceiling of either of these teams even next year. That's a problem, and given how much they've invested on non-QB positions, on guys that are somewhat aging, this will be a longer term problem. The only real path forward for the Bears is if somehow Trubisky post-benching had a light turned on. For the Vikings? Well, I'm not quite sure.
Tier N-IV - The "Just happy to be there playoff teams" Duo
7.) Washington Football Team = 6-8 (302-295)
6.) Arizona Cardinals = 8-6 (391-329)
6.) Arizona Cardinals = 8-6 (391-329)
The Football Team needs just one win to basically wrap up the NFC East - probably putting Ron Rivera in line for coach of the year. The defense is real, the offense is sloppy and conservative - a truly terrible combination. They'll host a playoff game and likely lose - and then it will be off to see what they do about QB longer term. For the Cards, they in theory have their QB, but slowly I'm starting to wonder how much they have a coach. Kingsbury's offense is awfully hit or miss, and their surprisingly good pass rush has kept them above board. Neither team is likely to go anywhere in the playoffs, but for both there will be interesting questions to answer, with trajectories of each steadily moving upwards.
Tier N-V - The "More than happy to be there" Trio
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9-5 (401-321)
4.) Seattle Seahawks = 10-4 (413-339)
3.) Los Angeles Rams = 9-5 (345-269)
3.) Los Angeles Rams = 9-5 (345-269)
Tampa's stirring comeback against Atlanta to me says more about just how absurdly bad Atlanta is at holding leads than the Bucs - what's a bit worrying is how often for long stretches the Bucs can look completely lost. They have an easy two games to end the season and have a clear shot at the #5 seed and that coveted trip to the NFC East team. Why do they have that clear shot? Because the Seahawks and Rams play each other this week - the winner with the clear inside track to the #3 seed (or even #2 if the Saints continue to slip) while the loser either has a 6th loss (Rams) or would lose a tiebreaker with the Bucs (Seattle). For those two teams, its a classic high variance team (Seattle - who's been on the low end for a bit) with a team that seemingly plays a 24-20 game every week. For weeks I was worried about the Rams inability to turn yards and production into points and it came to bite them really badly in this last game. I still trust them long term - one bad game is just a bad game - bit its annoying how much the Rams tend to play up or down to the level of the team.
Tier N-VI - The "2020 version of the 2015 Broncos?" Uno
2.) New Orleans Saints = 10-4 (397-297)
Throughout that Chiefs v Saints game, I kept thinking that I'd seen this before. I'd seen a great defense (and right now I would absolutely classify the Saints as such) try to keep pace with a great offense with their own offense giving them next to nothing aside from a handful of big plays. I have seen it before - and I saw it win a Super Bowl. Now, the 2015 Broncos defense is better than this Saints unit - but the Saints offense is probably better than that Broncos team. Brees even as he played on Sunday is better in that offense than the deteriorated Manning was in 2015. If Brees can hit a couple deep shots and Kamara can make a few plays (and whatever Taysom Hill can give) they can score the 20-24 points they'll need to win games (Broncos scoring in 2015 playoffs: 23, 20, 24). Now, those Broncos had the ability to play at a raucous home crowd, and the Saints will not get such a luxury, but there are some similarities here - the big question will be do the similarities end now, or continue to Brees riding off into the sunset with a 2nd ring like Manning did.
Tier N-VII - The "Let's stop underrating them please!" Uno
1.) Green Bay Packers = 11-3 (434-339)
I think a lot of people saw last year's mirage of a 13-3 team and expected the Packers to fall off. The expectation was they wouldn't do so well in 1-score games - and they haven't going just 3-2 in them. What's changed is the Packers stopped playing many one-score games (including the disaster loss to TB). Rodgers is playing well enough I think he may steal the MVP - and you know what? Give it to him. So many people counted him out after the Packers drafted a QB and didn't give him more weapons. What people missed is the young receivers they did draft recently might just get better, the OL is still great, its year two of a new offense, and, of course, Rodgers is one of the most defensive MFers who is very likely to take the drafting of Jordan Love very, very personally. The defense still needs to get better, as past all-Rodgers led teams met their matches in the playoffs - but even that side of the ball is slowly approaching its 2019 form.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 15-1
2.) Buffalo Bills = 12-4
3.) Indianapolis Colts = 12-4
4.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 12-4
6.) Baltimore Ravens = 11-5
7.) Cleveland Browns = 11-5
5.) Tennessee Titans = 10-6
NFC
1.) Green Bay Packers = 13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
3.) Seattle Seahawks = 12-4
4.) Washington Football Team = 7-9
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 11-5
6.) Los Angeles Rams = 10-6
7.) Arizona Cardinals = 9-7
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1) @ Houston Texans (4-10) (1:00 - FOX)
15.) Denver Broncos (5-9) @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) (4:05 - CBS)
14.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-9) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Bad v Bad" Sunday, as these are the only three games with zero playoff implications (yes, in theory the Eagles @ Cowboys game has playoff implications but I'm ignoring that). It will be interesting to see if the Bengals can keep up their defensive success, and then for the other two I feel the loser is going to have to start answering tough questions immedaitely, while the winner is on path to getting 'sleeper in 2021' talk. God forbid if that 'sleeper' is the Cowboys, the least sleeper-y team ever.
13.) Chicago Bears (7-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Cleveland Browns (10-4) @ New York Jets (1-13) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) New York Giants (5-9) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "less exciting trap/upset specials" Sunday, as we get three thrown=in 1pm Sunday games that probably pose little challenge to playoff hopefuls. For the Bears and Ravens, they need to hold serve here to realistically have a chance to make the playoffs. For the Ravens, they can still make it with a loss but then need the Dolphins to lose out. For the Bears, a loss all but ends things. I can't see any of the three favorites here losing but man it will throw a lot of cold water on Week 17 if it happens in any of these - especially for the Browns who have a potential NFC North Title Game in Week 17 with Pittsburgh.
10.) Carolina Panthers (4-10) @ Washington Football Team (6-8) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Rivera's Revenge" Sunday as the Football Team can all but clinch the NFC East (and can clinch it if the Giants lose to Baltimore at 1pm) against the team that let Ron Rivera go. I do understand why the Panthers moved on from Rivera but it would be some sweet poetry for him to lead Washington to a division title against the team that fired him - a team that for better or worse has the worst record in the NFC. I have no idea if the future is bright for Washington, but one year in we know who won the Pnathers/Rivera divorce.
9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) @ Detroit Lions (5-9) (SAT - NFLN)
8.) San Francisco 49ers (5-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (8-6) (SAT - Amazon!)
7.) Miami Dolphins (9-5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-7) (SAT - NFLN)
I call it "Spoilerific Saturday" as we get a tripleheader that doesn't have any clear good games but has three live spoilers (49ers, Raiders and Lions - admittedly they're a stretch). I have to think, or rather hope, at least one of the spoilers pull the upset here. The most likely bet is probably hte 49ers who have a habit of randomly putting it together. Also it would be nice to have a close game on the first one ever to be exclusively online only (Amazon Prime). For the Raiders, they're out of it but have a chance to ruin another team's season. For the Lions, the same, but also potentially Stafford's last game in Detroit - the end of an era that will remain both susprisinly competent and underwhelming at the same time.
6.) Minnesota Vikings (6-8) @ New Orleans Saints (10-4) (FRI - FOX)
5.) Buffalo Bills (11-3) @ New England Patriots (6-8) (MNF - ESPN)
4.) Atlanta Falcons (4-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "nice tests for playoff locks" Weekend, as we get three games where the better team is locked into a playoff spot, but there are some good questions to answer. For the Saints, can Brees start playing better against a porous defense. For the Bills, can they put the hammer down on New England and also show how they can play against a decent/good team for a second time. For the Chiefs, can their defense tamp down Atlanta, and also can they just blow out a team for once.
3.) Tennessee Titans (10-4) @ Green Bay Packers (11-3) (SNF - NBC)
2.) Indianapolis Colts (10-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "the great AFC South race" Sunday, as we get the Colts and Titans jockeying for that spot. Both have to go on the road to play 11-3 teams, but suddenly the Colts game seems like an easy play while Tennesee will need the most of Tannehill/Henry to keep up with the Packers. For Green Bay, they get a chance to clince the #1 seed, while the Steelers get a shot at clinching the division and avoiding a game for the division next week against the Browns. The Colts at 11-5 aren't playoff locks so this will be a huge game for them as well.
1.) Los Angeles Rams (9-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-4) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "The Great NFC West Race" Sunday, as this game will be for the division (assuming the Rams, if they win, don't trip up in Week 17). The Rams would be in a much nicer position had they not blown that Jets game. They are still essentially playoff locks but now are staritng a more challenging Wild Card trip with a loss. Of course, with a win they're right back on track. For the Seahawks, this is a great test for their suddenly extremely-shaky offense. The Rams defense, even including last week, is one of hte stronger units and won the matchup battle easily last time around. Week 17 lines up to be fairly interesting, and that will more or less start here for a game that will likely decide the NFC West.
