NFL 2012: Week 6 Power Rankings & The Rest

Not a great week, but not a bad one either.


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Rams (+1.5)  over  Cardinals  (CORRECT  =  1-0)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Falcons (-3)  over  Redskins  (CORRECT  =  2-0)
Eagles (+3.5)  over  Steelers  (CORRECT  =  3-0)
Packers (-7)  over  Colts  (WRONG  =  3-1)
Giants (-9)  over  Browns  (CORRECT  =  4-1)
Titans (+5.5)  over  Vikings  (WRONG  =  4-2)
Bengals (-3.5)  over  Dolphins  (WRONG  =  4-3)
Ravens (-6)  over  Chiefs  (WRONG  = 4-4)
Panthers (-3)  over  Seahawks  (WRONG  =  4-5)
Bears (-6)  over  Jaguars  (CORRECT  =  5-5)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
49ers (-9.5)  over  Bills  (CORRECT  =  6-5)
Patriots (-7)  over  Broncos  (CORRECT  =  7-5)
Chargers (+3.5)  over  Saints  (WRONG  =  7-6)
Texans (-9)  over  Jets  (WRONG  =  7-7)

Week 5: 7-7 (Lock: 1-0;  Upset: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 44-32-1 (4-1;  4-0)

Best Picks: Nothing perfect this week. Closest was my pick of Patriots beating the Broncos 31-21, while they won 31-23. Nothing else was in the realm of close. Oh, and by the way, I once again missed the prime-time games, and am now 1-8 in the last three weeks, and 5-11 overall.


Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (1-4  =  65-138)

Tennessee might be a worse team, and we'll get a good look when they meet later this season, but when you lose at home by 38, you deserve this spot. I realize the Bears are good, and so far three of the Jaguars losses are to teams a combined 13-2, but they've been utterly uncompetitive in their last three losses, and have a fluke 80-yard TD to thank for in their win. The defense is regressing. The offense still can't get anything going. Mike Mularkey 2.0 is going worse than 1.0.


31.) Tennessee Titans  (1-4  =  88-181)

I can't believe I'm not ranking a team with one fluke win (three return TDs) and four losses by 20+, but this is really picking one turd over a true whopper. The Titans have the league's most schizophrenic running back. Their defense cannot rush the passer or cover receivers. Matt Hasselbeck look's old out there. Mike Munchak someone got this team to 9-7 last year, but that was as much of a mirage as it seemed at the time.


30.) Kansas City Chiefs  (1-4  =  94-145)

Credit them for having a plan (run all the damn time) and sticking to it, and for playing very good defense. They still play hard for Romeo Crennel. But it is just hard to win a lot of games in the NFL with Matt Cassel, or now Brady Quinn, at quarterback. Also, screw the Chiefs fans for cheering when Cassel got hurt. That's an awful move from what is trumpeted up as a classy, dedicated fan base.


29.) Cleveland Browns  (0-5  =  100-139)

In each of the past two years, the league's last winless team wasn't all that bad, and ended with .500+ second halfs (2010 Bills, 2011 Dolphins). I think it is the same this year, but the Browns don't have that easy schedule those two had. They have two winnable games up next (vs CIN, @ IND) then a three game stretch late with (@ OAK, vs KC, vs WAS). Target those games for their wins.


28.) Buffalo Bills  (2-3  =  118-176)

Losing 52-28 after leading 21-7 to New England? Bad. Losing 45-3 and giving up 300 yards passing as well as 300 yards rushing? Historically bad. The Bills actually played substantially worse this week than they did against the Pats. Since that 21-7 lead, they've been outscored 90-10. The 49ers made them look completely amateurish. Best part is, because of the soft middle of teh AFC, they still have a shot at a Wild Card.



26.) Carolina Panthers  (1-4  =  92-125)

Year 2 of Cam is going a lot worse than Year 1. Of course, his Year 1 stats were inflated from the juiced Week 1-6 era of 2011, but one would've thought he would have improved from last year to this. I still like Cam long term, but he's got to play better at home. I realize Carolina isn't a great field to play in, but they have been so much better in their road games so far this season.


25.) Oakland Raiders  (1-3  =  67-125)

Hopefully they can use their week off to prepare for what could be another road blowout this week in Atlanta. That are work on making the Zone-Blocking Scheme and Darren McFadden gel. Or maybe sign corners that can actually play the position. The Raiders offense is still decent, but that defense is just atrocious. Reggie McKenzie better have a plan, because he gutted an average team.


24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (1-3  =  82-91)

It's nice that they have a -9 point differential. It is true they have been in every game, that they have played hard - however, they were incredibly outplayed against teh Giants and Cowboys, regardless of the final score. That all works early, but if they can't put together more wins, those close losses will explode into bigger losses. The 2011 Buccaneers lost some close games early as well.


27.) New York Jets  (2-3  =  98-132)

That was a good performance, but that really belies the problem with the Jets. They played well. They played aggresive, going with a fake punt on their side of the field. They got a special teams TD, and their defense held up in the red zone. Yet, they still lost by 6. Either the Jets turn this into a moral victory and run through an easier schedule, or this was the last stand of the Alamo.


23.) Detroit Lions  (1-3  =  92-125)

It says something about how weak the bad teams are that the Lions are only my 10th worse team. That said, some of that has to do with them allowing 4 Special Teams TDs the last two weeks, which swung two wins into losses. They've been better than that 1-3 record, but you look at the struggles of Matthew Stafford, the running game and the secondary (which hasn't been improved at all in the Mayhew/Schwartz era) and you think that maybe they aren't.


22.) Washington Redskins  (2-3  =  140-147)

I hope RGIII isn't out long-term. Partly because he's fun to watch play, but mostly because it will just continue to propigate this bias against QBs who can run. RGIII isn't Vick as much as he is like Cam. That said, there is a risk and it has presented itself. I guess this is why Shanahan drafted another QB in a middle round in the draft. Lost in all of that was a better performance by the Redskins defense, who are slowly adjusting to the loss of Orakpo and Carriker.


21.) Miami Dolphins  (2-3  =  103-103)

The Dolphins had a really nice win on Sunday, beating a good team on the road. Coupled with their two OT losses, they could be 4-1, or at least 3-2. That said, what we saw in Week 1, when they were thoroughly outclassed by the Texans, wasn't a mistake. I like this team, and they are another team unlikely in play for a Wild Card, but I think some will overrate their recent performance a little too much.


20.) New Orleans Saints  (1-4  =  141-154)

Congrats on getting off the schneid. Now, at least admit you were fortunate with a really questionable pass interference call late in the game. I actually came away from that game more impressed with the Chargers, but that was a good comeback by the Saints. Because the NFC is more top-heavy than expected, the Saints will have a tough time getting back into the mix. That loss to the Packers will loom larger each week.


19.) Indianapolis Colts  (2-2  =  91-110)

I hope Pagano's first treatment went as well as the Colts in the 2nd half. What a performance. Reggie Wayne isn't a HOF player, but that was a HOF performance. Andrew Luck had his first great comeback, and it was similar to Manning's best, coming back from 21-3 down late in the 2nd half. The real development, however, was the Colts finally showed some life with their new 3-4.


18.) Dallas Cowboys  (2-2  =  65-88)

Honestly, after their dreadful performance on MNF, that was a good time to have a bye. The Cowboys hopefully used it to make sure Romo doesn't throw 5 (or really 4) picks against the Ravens, and hopefully they used it to figure out how to turn their high yardage numbers into more points. Scoring 260 points (what the Cowboys are on pace for) is not exactly going to cut it in a high-scoring division.


17.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-2  =  80-99)

That was an OK performance, but man, can Mike Vick hold onto the ball. That first fumble at the Steelers 2 was awful. They could have still won, but their defense was gashed late. No OPI this time around for the Eagles. They've played 4 close games and gone 3-1. If that stays, they still have a shot, but if that equalizes to about .500, that is where the Eagles will, deservedly, be.


16.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (2-2  =  93-89)

Good win for a team that sorely needed it. If they lost to Philly at home to drop to 1-3 then they would really be in a tough spot. Losing Polamalu again hurts as their defense finally did look like a defense that resembled the Steelers from 2008-2011. Harrison looks a little slow, but that could improve. Mike Wallace is really struggling early. I didn't watch much of the game, so it could be that Nnamdi was covering him most of the day.


15.) Seattle Seahawks  (3-2  =  86-70)

This is a 'show-me' game for the Seahawks. They get the NFL's second hottest rushing attack (lest anyone forget, the 49ers have put up better rush numbers the last two weeks than New England), but get them in that bandbox in Seattle. They've made every opposing offense look flaccid, and need to do that to the Patriots. On the other side, it was good to see Wilson getting easier throws to make. He's not very good, but what he did against Carolina would be passable most weeks.


14.) St. Louis Rams  (3-2  =  96-94)

Through 5 weeks, all four NFC West teams are in my Top-15. Let that sink in. The Rams pass rush was incredible against Arizona. Now, that was against Arizona, but if they can do that more or less in most of their games, they are a definite Wild-Card competitors. Sam Bradford still has no weapons, but at some point, boy's gotta get more accurate. They are really tough to beat in that dome, but I want to see them show up outside. Last time they left, they were neutered 23-6 by the Bears.


13.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-2  =  125-129)

What a missed opportunity. They can't drop games to teams like the Dolphins if they want to win a Wild Card again. The 2011 Bengals didn't do it, the 2012 version can't either. I still like this team, and their defense has really stepped up the past two weeks, but with that loss, they've just let a ton of teams get near them in the standings.


12.) San Diego Chargers  (3-2  =  124-102)

That was a tough loss. They just fell apart after that roughing the passer call negated the pick-6. They played well, but losing to the Saints in New Orleans isn't as forgiveable as it was a year ago. Philip Rivers put up nice stats, but he just doesn't look right. That was an awful pick he threw. The Chargers need to show up for this game on Monday. They've been able to beat Manning by doing two teams: pressuring him up the middle, throttling the run game. Both will be hard to do against Denver, at least harder than it was against Indianapolis.


11.) Green Bay Packers  (2-3  =  112-111)

Losing to the 49ers: OK, the 49ers are a great team. Losing to the Seahawks: OK, they are tough to beat at home and have a great defense, and the Packers should have won. Losing to the Colts: Not OK. They were up 21-3. What happened to that O-Line in the 2nd Half. The Packers offense seems to go into huge stretches where they get nothing. Greg Jennings being 100% seems to mean a lot more to that offense than people think.


10.) Minnesota Vikings  (4-1  =  120-79)

They just dominated a team in a trap game. Good teams dominate bad teams. They just did that to the Titans. That was a bigger statement to me than any of their previous games (especially that fluke win in Detroit). The Vikings have found a way to make a supposed shortcoming (lack of weapons) be erased by great play-calling and utilizing Percy Harvin the way he should be. That defense is so improved from last year. They don't need Jared Allen to be superman to hold a team down anymore. I always thought Leslie Frazier would be a good coach. I had no idea.


9.) Denver Broncos  (2-3  =  135-114)

Again, part of this is pure homerism, but the three Denver losses were by 6, 6 and 10 to three teams in my Top-6, two being on the road. They've had an extremely tough schedule, and getting a road MNF game against doesn't help, but look at their schedule after the bye. Look at the way Manning has been playing. Look at that defense against bad to above average rush offenses (they've been shredded by two of the better ones in Houston and New England). They're going on a run soon, the only question is will that start this weekend or not.


8.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-1  =  94-78)

I'm not dropping them too far by looking bad on the road on TNF against a good team. The Bears did the same thing in Week 2. Didn't seem to hurt them too much. I'm definitely worried about that O-Line, but the Dolphins and Rams are both great pass rush teams. Larry FItzgerald is being utilized more now. They have to fix that run game. Thankfully, they still have a great defense. That is good enough considering they've already won four games.


7.) New York Giants  (3-2  =  152-111)

The Giants are one missed field goal away from 4-1 (much like the team up next). They've twice fell behind two lesser teams, which is a trend they can't keep doing, but they've reacted by dropping 41 points. Eli Manning is having a great season without his top target for much of it. They've pulled these guys from nowhere, like Barden, and plugged them in. One question I have for them, though, is that when is that pass rush going to show itself?


6.) New England Patriots  (3-2  =  165-113)

Their quick-no-huddle worked really well, and that run game is scary. But, as we've seen from the Bills and Broncos, they have trouble handling good rush offenses (especially the Bills). The Patriots offense is humming but I'll like to see them run close to that effectively in Seattle. It is obvious that we've overreacted to Welker having a spotty two games, but I think no one is even talking about Gronk's slow start, which is partly due to his gimpy back. He missed his senior season of college because of a back injury. This could potentially be far more serious than Hernandez's ankle.


5.) Baltimore Ravens  (4-1  =  130-89)

Unimpressive win on the road. Who cares. They still won. They still were never really threatened. It happens. All great teams win unimpressive games every now and then. Winning ugly is better than losing close. The Ravens are still a great team and their defense has picked itself up the last two weeks. Suggs might also be back after the bye for the stretch run, which would be a huge lift for them.


4.) Atlanta Falcons  (5-0  =  148-93)

Unimpressive win on the road. Who cares. They still won. They still were never really threatened. It happens. All great teams win unimpressive games every now and then. Winning ugly is better than losing close. The Falcons are still a great team. They are now 3-0 on the road, and have been great at home in recent years. One thing to look for is their run game. They need to use Rodgers more. It is clear that Turner is about done.


3.) Chicago Bears  (4-1  =  149-71)

So, this game was 3-3 at halftime. It ended 41-3. That was just a ridiculous performance all around by the Bears in teh 2nd half. Cutler to Marshall looked great. Tillman and Briggs continued their stellar play. Corey Wootton continued his good season. The Bears defense is playing as well as it did in 2006. They are getting contributions from offense and defense. Just a complete team playing really, really well.


2.) San Francisco 49ers  (4-1  =  149-68)

All you need to know is that they were the first team ever to have 300+ yards passing and rushing. They averaged 8.1 ypc on 38 carries. That is insane. That makes what the Patriots have done the last two weeks on the ground look pedestrian. Alex Smith utilized all his WR targets, with Kyle Williams even making a cameo appearance. This team is scary right now, even moreso when they beat the Packers and Lions in great fashion. Winning two games 79-3 is about as dominant as it gets.


1.) Houston Texans  (5-0  =  149-73)

Did I expect more from there in that game, yes I did. Was I slightly disappointed in their offense playing conservative, knowing their defense could take care of business? Yes. That said, teams can't play their best each week. I still think we haven't seem the Texans best. The closest was the first three quarters against Denver. That said, the Jets got some breaks (KO Ret TD, three Red Zone Field Goals forced, fake punt) and the Texans still won. They still haven't trailed in the second half. They still have about as complete a team as any in the NFL.


Ranking the Upcoming Week's Games


14.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-4)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

First up is a game that I could be pleased not seeing one singly play of, especially if Brady Quinn is involved. Neither of these two teams are going anywhere. Let's just move on,


13.) Oakland Raiders (1-3)  @  Atlanta Falcons (5-0)  (1:00 - CBS)12.) Buffalo Bills (2-3)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-1)  (4:05 - CBS)
Now we get to the usual bad games, where one poor team is going on the road to a good to great team. The Raiders did get a week to prepare, but they aren't nearly as good as the Falcons. Their defense will be exposed. That exact same sentence can be written for the next game, but the Cardinals offense isn't great. This will be an interesting game pitting two teams with opposite strengths and weaknesses.


11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-4)  (TNF)10.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)  @  Cleveland Browns (0-5)  (1:00 - CBS) 

It's amazing that going into the week, this TNF game looks more unwatchable than last weeks Arizona @ St. Louis game. The Steelers should roll here, but if hte Titans can get their offense goign then it might be time to give up on the Steelers defense for 2012. As for the other game, they played a fun game three weeks ago, but that just sets up for a classic disappointing 20-10 type game.
 

9.) St. Louis Rams (3-2)  @  Miami Dolphins (2-3)  (1:00 - FOX)8.) Indianapolis Colts (2-2)  @  New York Jets (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it 'Bracket Buster Week' just like they have for college basketball. The Rams are 3-2, but looking up at surprising 4-1's Minnesota and Arizona (of course, STL is surprising as well). The Dolphins are in that race for the Wild Cards with about 10 other teams. Two of their competitors are in teh next game. Yes, Andrew Luck might just lead the Colts to the playoffs. Will be interesting to see if the Jets have the same trouble selling tickets for this game.


7.) Detroit Lions (1-3)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)6.) Minnesota Vikings (4-1)  @  Washington Redskins (2-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

These next two games feature two NFC North vs. NFC East matchups, featuring two teams that have overperformed (the Eagles wildly so) against one underformer (Hello, Detroit!) and one exciting team that supposedly will be with its QB. For the Lions, if they fall to 1-4, count them out of any potential wild card chase because of the amount of teams that will be in front of them. In a way, same for the Redskins, who still have to play all six divisional games.


5.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2)  @  Baltimore Ravens (4-1)  (1:00 - FOX)4.) New England Patriots (3-2)  @  Seattle Seahawks (3-2)  (4:05 - CBS)

Two interesting intra-conference matchups here. The Cowboys are the league's second lowest scoring team, which doesn't bode well for them against a Ravens team that has rediscovered its defense. The last time these two played, teh Ravens shut down old Texas Stadium with two game-icing 75+ yard TD runs. As for the Patriots, it will be an interesting test of their new-found run game against a great defense in their house. The Seahawks have made every opposing offense look bad so far, and just manhandled last year's best rush offense. The Pats ran wild on two bad rush defenses. This could be different.


3.) Green Bay Packers (2-3)  @  Houston Texans (5-0)  (SNF)
Chase for Perfection + First home primetime game as a favorite against a team playing desperate. Who to take? I know where I'm leaning, because the desperation of Green Bay didn't help them against the Colts. If the Packers do lose, they'll be 2-4. Their schedule gets a lot easier, but still includes trips to MetLife, Soldier Field and Detroit. They need this win.


2.) Denver Broncos (2-3)  @  San Diego Chargers (3-2)  (MNF)
Talk about a team that needs a win. The Broncos have had the hardship of playing three of their four best opponents in the season's first five games (the remaining one is a trip to Baltimore). If they win this game, they tie the Chargers, have a head-to-head win on the road, and get a slate of easy games. If they lose, they're still in it for the division because of said easy schedule, but they probably can count out any shot at a bye. The CHargers can make a statement that they can beat a good team.


1.) New York Giants (3-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (4-1)  (4:25 - FOX)
Even before the season this game looked good. Now, with the 49ers winning their past two games 79-3 (how crazy is that), while the Giants won by 14 after trailing by 14, this game looks even better. We all know what happened the last time these two met. It was an epic dominated by the two defensive lines. Both D-Lines have struggled relative to what was expected, while both offenses have flown high. The Giants get up for these big games (try to think of the last big game that they didn't show up for, outside of trips to New Orleans), and it should be great. As much as I like the Packers @ Texans game, this should've been the Sunday Night game.


Postseason Projections

AFC

1.) Houston Texans  (14-2)
2.) Baltimore Ravens  (12-4 - beat NE)
3.) New England Patriots  (12-4)
4.) Denver Broncos  (11-5)
5.) San Diego Chargers  (10-6)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)


NFC

1.) San Francisco 49ers  (13-3 - conference record)
2.) Atlanta Falcons  (13-3)
3.) Chicago Bears  (12-4)
4.) New York Giants  (11-5)
5.) Minnesota Vikings  (11-5)
6.) Green Bay Packers  (10-6)

ALDS & NLDS Picks

That was an interesting night. First came the meltdown of the Braves' famed defense. Then the meltdown of the umpire. Then the meltdown of the Rangers. Anyway, in the end we are left with two intra-division DSes for the first time ever. I really like this slate of playoff teams, overall. A couple Cinderella stories (Orioles, A's), two wire-to-wire juggernauts (Nationals, Reds), a quietly dominant team in teh 2nd half (Giants), the token bad-record team (Tigers), the defending Champs (Cardinals) and the team we all get to hate (Yankees). You couldn't script it any better.

NLDS

(1) Washington Nationals (98-64)  vs  (5) St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)

I think the Nationals are a little overrated. They're a good team, but not 10 games better than St. Louis. The Nationals have better pitching, even without Strasburg, with Gio, Zimmerman, Edwin Jackson and, I guess, Ross Detweiler. That's better than St. Louis's foursome of Wainwright (who had just a decent year, for him), Lynn, Lohse and the other guy. That said, I have no idea how the Nationals won this many games with that offense. They have just one player with an OBP above .350 (Jayson Werth). Bryce Harper is one of their three best hitters and he didn't even have that great of a year. On the other side, the Cardinals have the best offense in the MLB. I think this goes 5 games (as easily could all of the series), and I'll take the Nationals but if I'm Washington, I would rather have faced the Braves.

Nationals in 5.


(2) Cincinnati Reds (97-65)  vs  (3) San Francisco Giants (94-68)

For years, the Reds hit gobs of Home Runs, while the Giants had great pitching. Well, you know what? This is a complete role reversal. The Reds can still hit home runs, but they have major pieces of the lineup that don't get on base or hit with too much power (Zack Cozart, Drew Stubbs). They do have the best hitter in baseball (Joey Votto, screw Cabrera and Trout, he's the best hitter in baseball). They do have a deep, good pitching staff with a great bullpen. All their four starters pitched 200+ innings, with ERAs under 4.00. Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Arroyo is a great playoff rotation. They might have the best bullpen in baseball is well, with Chapman finishing it off with his tidy 15.3 K/9. On the other side, considering park factors, the Giants offense is quite good. Buster Posey is the presumptive MVP leader. Brandon Belt had a nice campaign. Sandoval had a bounce-back year, and Angel Pagan had a nice season. Their pitching is what could kill them. I don't know if they plan to pitch Lincecum as a starter, but Zito should get that 4th spot. Bumgarner and Vogelsong both had mediocre second halves. Without Wilson, I don't trust their bullpen. The Giants are a good team. The Reds are just better, and better in the ways that recent history would've favored the Giants.

Reds in 4.


ALDS

(1) New York Yankees (95-67)  vs  (5) Baltimore Orioles (93-69)

I like the Rangers, but I'm happy that the incredible run of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles was not wasted in one playoff game. They'll get a playoff game in Camden Yards. The atmosphere should be incredible. Anyway, as for the series. The Yankees might not be close to the offense they were from 2004-2007, but in a sport with lower offensive levels, they are just as effective. The worry is, though, that some of their more effective players in 2012, like Nick Swisher, are historically unreliable in the playoffs. Their rotation really goes two deep, but Girardi's overmanaging of a bullpen might work better with a really effective bullpen with Soriano, Robertson, Rapada, Logan and Eppley all being effective. As for the Orioles, we all know that they have a poor run differential. They are a .500 team that managed to win ten extra games. That said, they have a decent lineup with a ton of power. They'll need that power as putting together a rally with singles and doubles won't work with a bad OBP team. With their rotation, who knows. The bullpen is great, but the starters are mostly erratic and awful. I have no idea if they can hold the Yankees at bay, but I want to believe it. This isn't a great Yankee team. I'll ride momentum, and the best story in baseball.

Orioles in 5


(2) Oakland Athletics (94-68)  vs  (3) Detroit Tigers (88-74)

The A's are a strange team. They have very little hitting outside of Cespedes, Gomes, Reddick and Carter, but they are really deep in their bench, providing them great pinch options. The key is that their pitching holds up to what it was in the regular season. Griffin seemed to tire late in the season, but he still can be an option. Tommy Millone can't do anything on the road, but if they plan it well, they can use him just at home. McCarthy and Parker have both had good years, and there is the potential for staff ace Brett Anderson to return from injury. Their bullpen is great. On the other side is the most top-heavy team in the tournament. They have four regulars with OPS+'s above 130, including Mr. Triple Crown. They have four under 100. If Cabrera, Fielder and Austin Jackson have good postseasons, the sky is the limit. Their pitching has Verlander, who was about 95% as good as he was in 2011. Max Scherzer was incredible in the 2nd half, quietly being #2 in K/9 in all of baseball behind Strasburg, and Doug Fister also had a good second half. They bullpen, though, is the issue. The Tigers have the worst bullpen of any team left in the playoffs, and those always factor in a large way in October. I have no idea. Do I really want to be left with a potential Cinderella bowl with the A's and Orioles? Sadly, no. I like the idea of the Tigers and Orioles, playing in two of the AL's most beautiful retro parks. It's fate, really.

Tigers in 4

On Chuck Pagano and the Whims of Evil

The Colts had a bye week, but emotionally, they suffered a 31-0 defeat last week. They suffered a defeat that they couldn't prepare for, and that they couldn't Monday Morning QB and fix. They suffered a human defeat. It could cripple a young team trying to start a new era. It could change the way we look at Jim Irsay's decision to let Peyton Manning go. It could have a drastic effect an a frisky team with the easy part of their schedule coming up. More than anything, though, it could, although unlikely, end a life.

Chuck Pagano has Leukemia. It is a curable kind, a treatable kind. It isn't a death sentence. It may not even end his season (although, as long as he is okay, who cares when he comes back). Yet, it once again shows the horrors of this particular disease, one that continues its evil romp through society. I often say how ridiculous it is that society has put men on the moon without computers, has figured out how to create an industry built off of essentially fake money and computers and turn it into the most profitable in the world, has figured out a way to put billions of bytes of computer power into an object with the volume of a cubic centimeter, but hasn't been able to cure cancer. I know that this is a crass statement to make, that truly millions upon millions is poured yearly into cancer research, that incredible developments have been made, but every time I hear that another person has cancer, that another person has to fight this disease, it makes me feel the same way each time.

I'll get personal for a minute. I have a relative who was recently diagnosed. Originally, it was thought to be metastasized throughout the bones, and that it was as close to terminal as possible. Despite losing all my grandparents, two Uncles and an Aunt, none had been to cancer, so this was new ground. For the first time, I thought at the time, I would lose a relative to cancer, lose someone who had truly been a part of my life for so many years. Thankfully, this was a wrong diagnoses, that it was less serious than initially thought. It still needed a 16-week treatment of radiation and chemo-therapy, but with modern science, and the amazing fight and spirit of the person, there is a chance we will meet for years to come. But is it fair? Is it fair that some still have to go through this awful, painful, debilitating cycle of treatment, with that fear that its dormancy will one-day end.

Weeks later, I find out that my childhood friend's Dad had cancer. Luckily, he too had a treatable version, one that left him fighting for his life and vulnerable to many ills, but still living and breathing. To many, the trails of these three would be, and rightfully so, considered lucky. They will live. Many won't. I might sound naive, but I don't care about that part, I only care that three people, one that I've grown up with, and one who is intimately connected to the person that was my first real 'best friend', fighting an evil that never stops, never rests, and never discriminates.

Getting back to Coach Chuck Pagano and my relative, it seems more cruel and evil than ever. My relative is a doctor, has dedicated their life to the medical industry, to helping people overcome their ills, and is cruelly saddled with falling victim to the fight they're fighting. For Pagano, he finally, after years upon years toiling in football isolation, in UNLV, East Carolina, UNC, Oakland, Cleveland and more before finally, at the age of 52, got his dream job. He got a great job, with a stable owner (despite what his Twitter account may let on), with a franchise, supposedly once-in-a-decade QB prospect, with a legacy of an organization with many great players and great coaches. He inherited a Mercedes, and just got blindsided by a mack truck.

Chuck Pagano, just like my relative and my friends' Dad, will almost certainly live. They will return to some semblance of normalcy. Because of medical advances millions of cancer patients around the world will defeat this dreadful, evil opponent. But that is still millions to many that need too. It may be just ranting, mad that the coach of my time, a first year coach that just got his dream job, needs to take eight weeks in isolation getting treatment. It may be just that I have someone who I've known my whole life that is fighting (and up till now beating) that same fight. I don't know what it is, but I've never felt angrier at this disease, at this evil that chooses blindly, without discrimination and discernment. It ruines lives on a whim, it forces humans to face and call up their most human emotion: strength. It brings out the best in people by forcing them to face the worst. It will bring out the best in Chuck Pagano, a man who looks ready for a fight anyway.

NFL 2012: Week 5 Picks

Arizona Cardinals (4-0)  @  St. Louis Rams (2-2)  (ARZ -1.5)

I've picked one TNF game correctly so far and that was the only one that has really followed the formula of TNF's games past, where the home team dominates a sloppy game. I have no feel for this game. I think the Cardinals are good, but the Rams are quite good in that building. Jeff Fisher's defense could harass Kolb the way Wake and the Dolphins did. I'm almost chalking this down as a loss already for me. I'll go with the Rams to win a tight game, partly because I think they'll win in their first home prime-time game since Bush was president (that is NOT a lie), and also because I can't imagine the Cardinals actually being 5-0.

Cardinals 17  Rams 20  (STL +1.5)


Atlanta Falcons (4-0)  @  Washington Redskins (2-2)  (ATL -3)

This should be a fun game, and another good test for the Falcons. So far, a group that has not been too much of a sure thing on the road (the Smith/Ryan Falcons) have been dominant on the road. Here, they get another shot against Griffin, who's still looking for his first home win. I can really see this game going either way. That said, the Falcons giving just three seems like a good value. They're better than the Redskins, and should score a lot against that porous Redskins defense. I'm going with Atlanta to win, and because of that low line, cover.

Falcons 35  Redskins 27  (ATL -3)


Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)  (PIT -3.5)

Interesting game. The Eagles are the worst 3-1 team in the NFL statistically (empirically, it is probably Minnesota), while Pittsburgh should finally get Polamalu and Harrison back. The last time these two teams met, the Eagles sacked Roethlisberger 8 times. I doubt they get him down that many times, but they still stop suprress what has quietly been quite a good offense in Pittsburgh. The other side is the more interesting one. The Steelers defense has been bad save for one game against a Jets offense. They get their guys back, and they'll need him. In the end, I don't think the Eagles are that much better than a finally healthy Pittsburgh team to give that many points in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are great at home, and I think we see that here.

Eagles 20  Steelers 23  (PHI +3.5)


Green Bay Packers (2-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-2)  (GB -7)

Nice easy game for the Packers here. If they don't get 30 points here, then we have serious problems going forward with the Packers offense. The Colts are not that good anyway, but now will be in their first game without their coach (Thoughts & Prayers with you Coach Pagano). Some would think that this personal issue would inspire a team, but seeing from the Colts and Packers after their coach's had tragedies, or the Saints this year, that doesn't really happen. If Luck gets any time at all, he should be able to find holes in that secondary, but I doubt he gets too much time.

Packers 34  Colts 17  (GB -7)


Cleveland Browns (0-4)  @  New York Giants (2-2)  (NYG -9)

The Giants will either do one of two things: 1 - play a lazy game where they win with a late field goal, or 2 - blow the doors off the Browns. People like to point out the Giants playing lazy, slow games at home, but that isn't always true. In 2008-2010, they were notorious for smashing bad teams early in seasons. I can see that happening here. The case for the Browns is that they've been competitive, and have 10 days of rest against a team that played a SNF game, but I don't always buy that, especially if the team off the shorter rest is the better team playing at home.

Browns 13  Giants 27  (NYG -9)


Tennessee Titans (1-3)  @  Minnesota Vikings (3-1)  (MIN -5.5)

I like this spot for Tennessee. The Vikings are 3-1, but really have played just one good game. They needed two return TDs to beat Detroit, and OT to beat a bad Jags team. On the other side, Tennessee is probably better than they've shown. They've been blown out badly by three of the best teams in the NFL (Patriots, Chargers, Texans) and played the Lions about as well as Minnesota did. I think this line is too high, and I can see Chris Johnson having another big game. I think the Vikings win the game, but the Titans keep it rather close. That line is just too high for me to feel comfortable picking the Vikings.

Titans 20  Vikings 24  (TEN +5.5)


Miami Dolphins (1-3)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)  (CIN -3.5)

On the other hand, this seems like too much respect for Miami after losing two games in OT. Yeah, they could easily be 3-1, but they are not. They just lost an emotional OT game and have to play another road game against the league's best hidden team. The Bengals are doing exactly what they did a year ago, winning all the games they should win. It might have helped them in a weird way to get blasted in Baltimore in Week 1. No one is really concentrating that they've won three games, two of which on the road. This seems like a clear undervaluation of a good team. The Bengals line should hold down the Dolphins pass rush, while the Bengals defense gets another chance to improve after a rough start.

Dolphins 17  Bengals 27  (CIN -3.5)


Baltimore Ravens (3-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)  (BAL -6)

The last time these two teams squared off was the 2010 Wild Card Game, where teh Ravens drummed the Chiefs 30-7. Nothing much has really changed since then. The Chiefs are worse, as Matt Cassel is regressing to what he really is (a pick-prone QB that lacks pocket-presence). The Ravens defense is worse, but their offense is better. The Chiefs still haven't really stopped anyone, and I can't see them beating Baltimore. I also think this line is low. The Chiefs are not a good team. They had a close, lucky win against an 0-4 team, and outside of that they've lost by 16, 18 and 17. That's what I see from them here as well.

Ravens  31  Chiefs 13  (BAL -6)


Seattle Seahawks (2-2)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-3)  (CAR -3)

I wish the Seahawks were favorites by 3. I would have felt a lot more confident. I think Vegas, and the public in general, has kind of caught on that the Seahawks offense, at Russel Wilson, just isn't that good. The Panthers defense isn't either, but they should be able to hold down the Seahawks enough. The other side of teh ball pits a good defense against a volatile but good offense. It is really hard to make a good pick of how that matchup plays out. I'm leaning towards the Panthers, so I'll take them to win and cover (I would buy the half-point had I been actually betting here).

Seahawks 17  Panthers 23  (CAR -3)


Chicago Bears (3-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)  (CHI -6)

Oh, mercy. Blaine Gabbert and the Jags offense was awful against the Bengals at home. What exactly will they do against the NFL's most active defense through four weeks. They might get some run-game going (at least more so than last week), but sooner or later, the Bears will take that away. On the other side, if Forte plays, that Chicago offense is easily good enough to score 20+. This spread is low, for some reason. I have a feeling one or two of my clear blowout picks (this, Ravens over Chiefs, Giants over Browns, the one coming up) falters, but that is okay if the others work out like I think they will.

Bears 27  Jaguars 10  (CHI -6)


Buffalo Bills (2-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (3-1)  (SF -9.5)

This line seems high, but I can't relly make any sort of case for the Bills here. Their run game will probably have another innefective week. The 49ers run game is about as good as New England's (that's right, New England, despite what you have heard, did not invent running the football), and about as diverse. Their defense is much better. In the Bills losses, they've given up 100 points and turned the ball over 10 times. If their turnover number comes close to 5, then no way do they stay even close. The 49ers are too good to play a complacent game at home (especially after a complacent game two weeks ago). They get the win, and the cover, but I don't think the Bills embarrass themselves this time.

Bills 17  49ers  30  (SF -9.5)


Denver Broncos (2-2)  @  New England Patriots (2-2)  (NE -7)

It is easy to overreact to what just happened. The Patriots just scored 45 second half points. They just ran for 200 yards and gained 500 yards. They just had their QB throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Apparently, they've reinvented the way offense is played, and what transpired in Weeks 2 and 3 are irrelevant. Of course, the Broncos just had a game where they scored 31 second half points (in fewer possessions), gained over 500 yards and had their QB throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Yet, what is people's reaction about that game: It was the Raiders. Well... It Was the Bills. Anyway, getting to this game. The Patriots aren't suddenly the best team in the NFL. Their defense isn't suddenly good because FItz threw up some lobs. Their run game isn't suddenly the 2008 Panthers because they ran against dime coverage. That all said, at this stage, they are better than teh Broncos enough to beat them at home. My key for Denver is 3-3 at the bye, and winning next week's game is more important.

Broncos 23  Patriots 31  (NE -7)


San Diego Chargers (3-1)  @  New Orleans Saints (0-4)  (NO -3.5)

Has there ever been a line like this, where an team with three fewer losses is favored? It is even worse when it comes in Week 4, so a winless team is a favorite agaisnt a 3-1 team? This is just a stunning line. Yes, the Chargers were awful in their one loss, but the Saints HAVEN'T WON A GAME. They are 0-2 at home losing to two teams worse than the Chargers. If this line was normal (like a pick, or Chargers by 1 or 2), I would think about the Saints, but this is ludicrous. It is an affront. The Saints could very well win, but what is this line about? Anyway, going to the game, the Chargers offense should have an easy time against the Saints flaccid D. On the other side, I don't think the Saints offense is back to normal because of that game. Brees still threw too many incompletions, and they still didn't cross 30 points (which they did once, with a garbage-time TD). I'm taking the Chargers, and if they do win, that Broncos @ Chargers MNF game next week becomes all that much more important.

Chargers 31  Saints 27  (SD +3.5)


Houston Texans (4-0)  @  New York Jets (2-2)  (HOU -8)

I'm taking way too many high favorites to cover. 7 teams are favored by at least 6, and I've taken them all to cover. Hopefully, that goes at least 4-2. By the way, it is obvious, now, who I am picking in this game. The Jets are worse than the team that just played the 49ers in now that Santonio is gone. They won't be able to move the ball any easier against the NFL's best pass defense (and a Top-5 run defense). The Texans offense can run the ball well, and should against a suddenly porous Jets defense. 5-0 will be upon us, and two major tests are coming up (Packers & Ravens, both in Houston).

Texans 30  Jets 13  (HOU -8)


Enjoy the Games!!!

NFL 2012: Week 5 Power Rankings & the Rest

Well, after a .500 week of picks, I am back. As much so as Peyton Manning, at least.


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Ravens (-12) over Browns  (WRONG  =  0-1)
Patriots (-4.5) over Bills  (CORRECT  =  1-1)
Vikings (+5) over Lions  (CORRECT  =  2-1)
Falcons (-7) over Panthers  (WRONG  =  2-2)
49ers (-5) over Jets  (CORRECT  =  3-2)
Chargers (+1) over Chiefs  (CORRECT  =  4-2)
Texans (-12) over Titans  (CORRECT  =  5-2)
Rams (+3) over Seahawks  (CORRECT  =  6-2)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Cardinals (-6.5) over Dolphins  (WRONG  =  6-3)
Broncos (-6.5) over Raiders  (CORRECT  =  7-3)
Bengals (-2.5) over Jaguars  (CORRECT  =  8-3)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Saints (+7.5) over Packers  (CORRECT  =  9-3)
Redskins (+3) over Buccaneers  (CORRECT  =  10-3)
Giants (+1.5) over Eagles  (WRONG  =  10-4)
Cowboys (-2.5) over Bears  (WRONG  =  10-5)

Week 4: 10-5  (Lock: 1-0;  Upset: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 37-25-1 (3-1;  4-0)

Best Pick: No perfect picks once again. The closest was my predicted Packers win of 28-24 (they won 28-27). I guess my upset pick of Rams 20 Seahawks 16 was kind of close (real score 19-13).

Weird Trend: I am 4-9 picking prime-time games. This wasn't a huge issue the first two weeks (4-3), but I've been 0-6 picking night games the last two weeks. No idea why, really. Usually those are easier games to pick, but I've not even been right heads up in the last two weeks (2-4).


Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3  =  62-97)

They should be thankful for that Cecil Shorts play, because they could be staring at 0-4 right now. What a sullen performance. The Bengals defense has been bad all year long, but I guess playing the Jags offense is a good way to correct some things. I thought it was unfair the amount of criticism Gabbert got last year, but he's barely improved.


31.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-3  =  88-136)

I still laugh at all those 'experts' to pick the Chiefs for a division title. Their defense is not good enough to overcome having Matt Cassel as the QB. Cassel really has not improved at all since he came to KC. People seem to like to wax poetic about that freak 7-int year in 2010, but that guy was a one-year fluke. The real Cassel is this one, who has awful pocket presence and throws gobs of picks.


30.) Cleveland Browns (0-4  =  73-98)

I really should have them ranked higher. They've been competitive in each game except for the Buffalo one. They showed great will and determination against the Ravens, making a game out of that one. Brandon Weeden is much, much better than that flummoxed cat that played in Week 1. They'll be feisty all year, but at some point you have to turn that into actual wins.


29.) Oakland Raiders (1-3  =  67-125)

I still like the Reggie McKenzie pick as GM long term, but can anyone tell me why he's cut almost everyone from the 2011 draft class. They were young, low-salary players, and he just let them go for nothing. Not that they were great, but DeMarcus Van Dyke is better than Ron Bartell or these other random stiffs McKenzie has got in the secondary. Just a terrible job with that defense.


28.) Tennessee Titans (1-3  =  81-151)

Being on pace to allow 600 points is usually not a good thing. Now Jake Locker-less for the forseeable future, it will be interesting to see exactly how much the dropoff is to Hasselbeck. CJ2K finally did something, and that might not be enough to touch teh Texans, but against lesser teams they could still win some games going forward.


27.) Indianapolis Colts (1-2  =  61-83)

Thoughts and Prayers are with you, Coach Pagano. His is a much tougher test than anything the Colts will face, and reading and listening to him, he's definitely up for the challenge.


26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3  =  82-91)

The Buccaneers are a strange team. All of their losses have been close, but they've been outgained by at least 100 yards in all of them. They've nearly stolen two games they had absolutely no reason winning, and won a game they probably should have lost. The more and more these losses pile up, the worse off I think teh Bucs are in the Schiano era. Hard to play for a hard-ass when you are 3-9.


25.) Detroit Lions (1-3  =  100-114)

Well, that brief glimmer of hope for Lions fans that was 2011 was fun, wasn't it? In all seriousness, I think they are fine long term, but the Lions have entered a period where they aren't quite good enough to be able to think so highly of themselves. They like to play their game, but their game isn't good enough to beat a lot of teams. Sure, each of the last two weeks they've lost in games that featured 5 return TDs for their opponents, but losing to the Titans and Vikings aren't great endorsements.


24.) New York Jets (2-2  =  81-109)

I like Mark Sanchez. I genuinely think he is a good guy and wants and works to be a great player. The thing is, though, he just isn't. That said, the real problem for the Jets is Mike Tannenbaum has done an awful job or retaining and replacing talent. The 2009-2010 Jets were good, talented teams. Those guys aren't here anymore. They let Cotchery and Edwards go and not replaced them. They let Damien Woody go. They let Kerry Rhodes and countless other guys go. That roster just isn't that good.


23.) Miami Dolphins (1-3  =  86-90)

I'll admit, they are quite a bit better than I thought. Now, Brian Hartline having 250 yards receiving is a once-and-a-career achievement, but Tannehill looked calm and confident. That defense was swarming, including just a dominant performance by Cameron Wake. The Dolphins could easily be 3-1 right now (two losses in OT), but they're better off getting a low pick and building for the future. Tannehill's a guy you can build around, and I'm as surprised that that statement is true as any.


22.) New Orleans Saints (0-4  =  110-130)

That might have seemed like a tough loss to a good team, but let's be real, it was a tough loss when they were aided by multiple beneficial calls against a team that hasn't been that great this season. The Saints went 0-4 in 2007, so this isn't exactly unprecedented, and they finished that season 7-5. Brees is actually playing appreciably better this time around, but the defense is appreciably worse. With the Chargers and Broncos among their next few games, this might be getting worse.


21.) Carolina Panthers (1-3  =  80-109)

The Panthers two divisional losses this season were so similar to so many of their losses last year. Close losses where they had chances to win the game late in the 4th quarter. That decision to punt was about as conservative as it gets. Yes, they downed the ensuing punt at the 1, but it still was cowardly. Cam Newton is about as sure a thing as there is in the NFL if you need one yard. Let him get that one yard, Ron.


20.) St. Louis Rams (2-2  =  79-91)

I know Jeff Fisher is a good coach, but this has been really surprising. The Rams were outclassed in Chicago by a plain better Bears team, but that defense is really strong, and they play well at home. Honestly, they've played four teams that are more talented, and won two games and came close to winning another. Sam Bradford also looks comfortable, for once, which is doing wonders for that offense that could still use a couple weapons that could actually be considered good.


19.) Buffalo Bills (2-2  =  115-131)

That was the definition of falling off a cliff. All of a sudden, they stopped getting any sort of pressure on Brady, Fitzpatrick started wildly flinging passes all over the place and it was a wrap. That defense doesn't seem to be any better this year. In their two losses, they've given up 100 points. 52 to the Patriots is bad, but 48 to the Jets? Anyway, because of an easy schedule they can stay around .500, but that defense better improve quickly.


18.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2  =  77-75)

The bye should help them in that they'll get Harrison and possibly Polamalu back, but how bad does that Oakland loss look now. The Steelers are wasting a great year from Roethlisberger to this point. There's still time to sort this out in an AFC where many of the teams ahead of them aren't great (Jets, Bills), but maybe they aren't either.


17.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2  =  65-88)

For years, I have expounded on the Cowboys inability to have their points scored rank match up with their yardage rank. It was first obvious in 2009, when everyone was raving about their 2nd rank offense in terms of yards, but they ranked just 14th in points. In 2011, when Romo was healthy again, it was more moderate, with the points rank at 15, while the yards at 11 (oddly, the most even year was with Kitna at QB for a long stretch in 2010). This year is the worst. The Cowboys currently have scored the 2nd fewest points in the NFL, while ranking 16th in yards. That is a recipe for disaster.


16.) Washington Redskins (2-2  =  123-123)

I'll admit it, RGIII is a very good player and this is a very fun offense to watch. I bet Mike Shanahan has dreamed of having this type of QB ever since leaving the friendly confines of Camelot with Steve Young. Now, they have to stop blowing leads. For the 2nd time this season, the Redskins blew at 21-6 lead on the road. They came back to win this time, but blowing a 15 point lead to the Bucs isn't exactly the sign of a great team.


15.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2  =  70-58)

That Seahawks-Rams game made me feel smart. I like feeling smart; that feeling when you call a game close to perfectly. The Seahawks aren't good enough to go on the road to a good defense and win. Russell Wilson and that offense just isn't there yet. That said, if the Rams kicker doesn't pull a Janikowski, they might win anyway. It is so strange to see good, competitive and competent games featuring NFC West teams again.


14.) Minnesota Vikings (3-1  =  90-72)

There is a good chance the Vikings are 4-1 after next week. They've shored up that secondary and their offense is just clicking right now. Christian Ponder is using that offense perfectly, utilizing short routes with Rudolph and getting Harvin involved as much as possible. Peterson looked great and continues to amaze in his quick recovery from an ACL tear. The Vikings are really as much of a surprise as the Cardinals, and they aren't going away.


13.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1  =  112-112)

This team also has a great chance of being 4-1. Essentially, they are doing exactly what they did last year: beat all the teams they are better than. They were completely outclassed by the Ravens in Baltimore, but beat three teams worse than them. The defense finally showed up (Michael Johnson, welcome back to relevance). I like this team. Again, they'll lose to the good teams, but in a weak middle of the AFC, that might not really matter.


12.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1  =  66-83)

The Eagles have to be one of the worst 3-1 teams ever. They've been outscored by 17. Each of their three wins could have so easily been losses, had the Browns LB held onto the pick, Jacoby Jones not being called for a really suspect OPI, and Lawrence Tynes getting 4% more power into that kick. They didn't turn the ball over for once, but their worst quality from 2010-11 showed up: inability to do anything in the red zone.


11.) Green Bay Packers (2-2  =  85-81)

Just like I said in the Saints part, the Packers needed some luck to beat an 0-3 team. Against the league's worst defense, they couldn't put up 30 points (admittedly, Rodgers had a really good game). The Packers schedule starts to get easier starting with the Colts next week, but I still don't think they are quite there. Jordy Nelson doesn't seem close to what he was last year. That defense also seemed to take a step back after a nice start to the season.

10.) San Diego Chargers (3-1  =  100-71)

I'm probably underrating the Chargers after their big win in Arrowhead, but I still don't like this team. Their completely listless home game against Atlanta is still sticking in my head. They took care of business against a bad team, but the schedule is going to start getting quite a bit tougher going forward. Rivers is still not performing at his best level, but they haven't really needed him to so far. 


9.) Arizona Cardinals (4-0  =  91-61)

That was a gut-check win, where they needed their offense for the first time in 2012. They are still so good in that dome. Kevin Kolb was battered and bruised by the Dolphins pass rush, but he stepped up big at the end with two huge throws on 4th downs. Andre Roberts has really turned into a nice player that can take advantage of all the attention paid to Fitz. I'm willing to give the Cards a pass for that lousy coverage, but it should get better.


8.) Denver Broncos (2-2  =  114-83)

Other than not getting a turnover (though a blocked punt is essentially a turnover) the Broncos defense played about as well as it could against a good Raiders defense. That was more important in a way than Manning shredding that awful defense. That said, let's talk about the Broncos offense. McGahee and Hillman cruised to 150 yards. Peyton looked like, well, Peyton. He was simply masterful against that defense. The only time the Broncos were stopped was when Thomas inexplicably fumbled, and that even more inexplicable fake field goal.


7.) New England Patriots (2-2  =  134-92)
 
Before we all go Ga-Ga over the Patriots dropping 52 on the Bills, let's remember that the Jets dropped 48 on those same Bills. The Patriots have also allowed close to 900 yards the past two weeks. Against a better QB, that defense get absolutely torched yesterday. Their running game is scary, but they went against a team that played dime for most of the game in fear of the pass. I'd like them to have a great performance against a good team. They get a chance this Sunday.


6.) New York Giants (2-2  =  111-84)

That was a tough loss. That was absolutely OPI on Barden, but had that just been incomplete, Tynes probably hits the 44 yard field goal and the Giants go to 3-1 with a huge road divisional win. Either way, the Giants are still a good team that nearly beat the Eagles without Nicks and with no running game. Their defense lost another key member in Phillips and they need to play better against the run, but that was a really tough situation to play in and they could have won.


5.) Chicago Bears (3-1  =  108-68)

Well, that was something. Through four games, two against what people would call good offenses, the Packers have picked off 11 passes, and recorded 15 sacks. Both those figures, shall we say, lead the league. There is little chance they keep up that pace, but if they somehow do get close to picking off 44 passes and recording 60 sacks, just give them the divisional title. Good to see Devin Hester be used well on offense, and better to see Marshall and Cutler in sync and, for once, smiling.


4.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1  =  121-83)

They are good. Their offense is really good at times. Joe Flacco is turning in one of the better seasons of any QB this year. Ray Rice has been incredible efficient in limited use. That is the good. The bad is the defense, and specifically the pass defense without Terrell Suggs applying pressure. They haven't been able to come close to replicating the pressure that Suggs brings and going forward that is something to look out for. The Ravens are still good enough to get around it because of that improved offense, but sooner or later not having Suggs will hurt them (until they get Suggs back, of course).


3.) Atlanta Falcons (4-0  =  124-76)

The Falcons escaped. Good teams have to sooner or later, and great teams do it. The only concern I have is more of an aesthetic one. The Falcons have been incredible at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, but their two 'close' games in 2012 have been at home. Now, that belies dominant road performances, but still a bit worrying for a team that could be playing a couple home games come January.


2.) San Francisco 49ers  (3-1  =  104-65)

The Jets didn't pose much of a challenge, but that doesn't mean you can't be impressed with what the 49ers did. They rushed for 245 yards. They gave up 145... total yards. On the road, in a 1PM East-Coast game. They took that trope and beat it to death. Sure, I still want to see more from Alex Smith, but that was the return of the most phyiscally dominant team in the NFL.


1.) Houston Texans (4-0  =  126-56)

A quick disclaimer: they aren't as good as the 2007 Patriots. Okay, after getting that out of the way, they are off to the best start of any team since. They've scored the 2nd most points in the NFL despite noticeably pulling the foot of the gas in the 2nd half of each of their first two games. They've allowed the fewest points. They've played only one reasonably close game, and that was on the road and even there they led by 20 before getting burned in the 4th quarter by Peyton. JJ Watt is playing at a level rarely seen by anyone not named Reggie White. That offense still isn't running at its best, and Andre Johnson is being purposely taken out of games, yet their offense has scored more than enough. There is really no other option. The real test for the Texans will be their two games coming up after this one against the Jets, where they host the Packers on SNF and then host the Ravens. If they escape that at 7-0 with impressive wins, then I'll start debating a possible run at 16-0.


Ranking this Week's Games

With just a quick glance at the schedule, this is the least appealing week so far. Obviously, there is one large exception, but both of the main primetime games are less attractive now than they looked at the beginning of the season. Anyway, four teams on a bye this week. including three 1-3 teams, yet the slate still has a bunch of games featuring good teams against bad.

Byes: Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay


These first four games feature good teams (if not teams with great records) playing against bad teams. The Packers can continue to get back to their normal offensive levels with a trip to Indy. The Giants can get that bad taste out of their mouth with Cleveland. The other two are interesting. The Bears defense could just kill Blaine Gabbert, and the Ravens have a good shot of doing the same to Matt Cassel. These all set up to be less than competitive, and therefore, pretty boring.

14.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)  (CBS - 1:00)
13.) Chicago Bears (3-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)  (FOX - 4:05)
12.) Cleveland Browns (0-4)  @  New York Giants (2-2)  (CBS - 1:00)
11.) Green Bay Packers (2-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-2)  (FOX - 1:00)



These next two games get their own section. They share mostly the same formula as the ones above, but are a little more interesting because of the potential here. The Jets and Bills are two of the worst 2-2 teams, and both were absolutely crushed last weekend. Now they get my top-2 teams in the NFL. As for the Jets, you have to think they show some pride after what just took place, but it really may not matter. Same with the Bills.

10.) Houston Texans (4-0)  @  New York Jets (2-2)  (MNF)
9.) Buffalo Bills (2-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (3-1)  (CBS - 4:25)



The Titans are the worst team by point differential in the NFL, but I like this matchup for some reason. CJ2K finally played a game, and just watching him and All-Day go against each other should be fun. What could really be interesting is the Vikings, yes the Vikings, could be 4-1.

8.) Tennessee Titans (1-3)  @  Minnesota Vikings (3-1)  (CBS - 1:00)



These next three games are all quite similar. They feature a bunch of mediocre to good teams playing against each other. That Arizona @ St. Louis game is turning out a lot better than it originally looked on the TNF slate. The Bengals could also be 4-1, and start shutting all those people who saw regression from them (me!). Seahawks @ Panthers just seems fun.

7.) Arizona Cardinals (4-0)  @  St. Louis Rams (2-2)  (TNF)
6.) Miami Dolphins (1-3)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)  (CBS - 1:00)
5.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-3)  (FOX - 4:05)
 


Not sure why this game is that appealing. In most weeks it wouldn't be this high. The Steelers should have at least Harrison back at this point. The Eagles are the worst 3-1 team, and the Steelers are the best sub-.500 team, so I could see the Steelers flexing their muscles at home again.

4.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)  (FOX - 1:00)
 


Do you like offense? Well, then these two games are for you. The Redskins continue to be a really exciting team to watch, while the Falcons are the most explosive offense through four weeks. In that next game, I wonder what odds you would have gotten that the Chargers would enter that game three games better than the Saints. The Chargers so far are 2-0 on the road, and there is no East Coast stuff going on as it is a night game. The last time these two met was a wildly entertaining 39-36 game in London back in 2008.

3.) Atlanta Falcons (4-0)  @  Washington Redskins (2-2)  (FOX - 1:00)
2.) San Diego Chargers (3-1)  @  New Orleans Saints (0-4)  (SNF)



The Rivalries continue. Sure, we finally get Manning vs. Brady for the first time since December 2010, but the best part about Manning's new team choice is that he joins an already existing rivalry. Back in the day, the Broncos under Shanahan used to give the Patriots fits. They beat them in 2002 and then three straight times from 2005-2006 (for all the talk of rock-paper-scissors, it was everyone beat New England in those two years) including handing Brady his first playoff loss, and the Patriots needed some timely situation football (intentional safety) to steal a win in 2003 against a Danny Kannell led Broncos team. Since those days, the Patriots have won three of four, and all their wins are in blowouts, with the Broncos win in the McDaniels game in 2009. As for the Manning factor, in the modern rivalry (from 2001), he's never beaten the Patriots in a non-prime-time game (discounting the 6:35 start for the 2006 AFC Title Game) losing in 2003, 2007 and 2010, while winning the last four played in prime-time (including back to back wins in New England in 2005 and 2006). So of course, NFC gives CBS's head-honcho Les Moonves's friend Robert Kraft a solid by putting this game during the day. Yeah, I see through this obvious scheduling bullshit. Anyway, both teams enter on highs, and neither is desperate at 1-3. Should be a good game.

1.) Denver Broncos (2-2)  @  New England Patriots (2-2)  (CBS - 4:25)


*New Section*  (Yes, I understand how long this is)

Postseason Projections

AFC

1.) Houston Texans  14-2
2.) Baltimore Ravens  12-4
3.) New England Patriots  12-4
4.) Denver Broncos  11-5
5.) San Diego Chargers 10-6
6.) Buffalo Bills/New York Jets  9-7 (Yeah, easy schedules really help)


NFC

1.) Atlanta Falcons 13-3
2.) San Francisco 49ers 12-4
3.) Chicago Bears 12-4
4.) New York Giants 11-5
5.) Green Bay Packers 10-6
6.) Arizona Cardinals 10-6

NFL 2012: Week 4 Picks

Cleveland Browns (0-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (2-1)  (Ravens -12)

The only think that would make me pick the Browns to cover (picking them to win is just ludicrous) is that the spread is really high and the Ravens had a really emotional, physical game on Sunday Night and this is a quick turnaround. However, the Ravens now how to beat the Browns in their sleep. Flacco and Harbaugh have never lost to them, and they haven't lost in that stadium since December 2010 (and before that since November 2009). Not happening here.

Browns 10  Ravens 27  (BAL -12)


New England Patriots (1-2)  @  Buffalo Bills  (Patriots -4.5)

I'm surprised this line is low. The Patriots have lost two close games to good teams and while the Bills are at home and have the better record, they've beaten two bad teams (KC, CLE) and will be without their best offensive player through three weeks. Now, Fred Jackson coming back should negate some of that. In the end, I think this game will be close (I think the Bills are good) but this seems to be really good value for New England.

Patriots 31  Bills 24  (NE -4.5)


Minnesota Vikings (2-1)  @  Detroit Lions (1-2)  (Lions -5)

What exactly have the Lions done to be favored by this much. Matthew Stafford is coming off an injury and hasn't looked that good even before the injury. They barely beat a bad Rams team, then lost to the 49ers easily, then lost to a bad Titans game in an admittedly flukey game. The Vikings have an offense led by a capable player who has so far been extremely accurate. They have enough ability to keep it close, and I could see their defense swarming the pocket of Stafford. I don't know if they win, but that five points is really an insult to one of the better surprises of 2012.

Vikings 23  Lions 27  (MIN +5)


Carolina Panthers (1-2)  @  Atlanta Falcons (3-0)  (Falcons -7)

I'm torn about this game. I can see the Panthers, in a divisional game with 10 days of rest, coming out and playing well, but the Falcons are just on a roll right now. Surprisingly, their worst performance was at home against Denver, but Denver is better than Carolina. Matt Ryan should have a ton of time to throw against a flaccid pass-rush. If Ramses Barden could go off on them, imagine what the Falcons can do. This is a high line, but the Falcons are that good for the time being.

Panthers 23  Falcons 31  (ATL -7)


San Francisco 49ers (2-1)  @  New York Jets (2-1)  (49ers -5)

This is an interesting matchup, with the 49ers having to play a 1PM game on the East Coast, while the Jets have to start Week 1 of the post-Revis 2012 season. Thankfully for them, the loss of Revis won't kill them here because the 49ers don't have any receiver that needs a Revis to take him out of the game. I can see the Jets defense having a good amount of success against the 49ers offense. The real story is the other side. The Jets offense has looked very much like the Jets offense we've come to know and love (unlike that absolute fluke from Week 1). The 49ers defense should hound Mark Sanchez. I don't like that matchup at all for the Jets.

49ers 23  Jets 13  (SF -5)


San Diego Chargers (2-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)  (Chiefs -1)

Why is this line low? I realize there is a concern of the Chargers having to play a 1PM game, but I think this is a wild overreaction to one bad game by the Chargers. Yes, the Chiefs played well against the Saints in the 2nd half, but the Redskins and Panthers did as well and that hasn't translated into more wins in those cases. The Chargers offense should excel against a mediocre Chiefs secondary. On the other side, the Chargers defense has been better than expected, which should do wonders against a less than mediocre Chiefs offense.

Chargers 27  Chiefs 20  (SD +1)


Tennessee Titans (1-2)  @  Houston Texans (3-0)  (Texans -12)

I can't believe that I am about to pick two 12 point favorites to win and cover without really thinking much of it. There is a pretty good likelihood that one of these two don't cover, but I can't see the Texans needing much effort to beat a bad Tennessee team. The Texans are just a lot better right now. Their defense should swarm Locker, not allowing him to scramble the way he has. I can't see CJ0K getting off the ground here either. Their offense is good enough to do what they always do. The Texans have a formula, and until the defenses they face improve or injuries set in, it will work and work well.

Titans 13  Texans 31  (HOU -12)


Seattle Seahawks (2-1)  @  St. Louis Rams (1-2)  (Seahawks -2.5)

I like the Rams here. I don't think the Seahawks are that good, especially on offense. They basically had three plays in that game (the two TDs to Tate and the pass to Rice right before the Hail Mary) on offense. The Rams defense is quite good (at least as good as the Packers) and they are at home. I can see them shutting down the Seahawks offense. As for the Rams, their offense is not very good, but they've played better at home. They can play well enough to score enough points against a bad, overrated offense.

Seahawks 17  Rams 20  (STL +3)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)


Miami Dolphins (1-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (3-0)  (Cardinals -6.5)

Why is this line so low? The Dolphins played well last week, but the Cardinals are better than the Jets, and Arizona has been quietly one of the toughest places to play since that new building was opened in 2006, and great there since Whisenhunt took over in 2007. In '07, they went 6-2, in '08, they went 6-2, in '09, they went 4-4 but one of those was a rest-a-thon, in '10, they went 4-4 (the team went 5-11), and in '11, they went 6-2. So, in the Whiz era, they've gone 26-13 in real games, and 3-0 in the playoffs. That is a great home-field now. This seems too easy.

Dolphins 13  Cardinals 27  (ARZ -6.5)


Oakland Raiders (1-2)  @  Denver Broncos (1-2)  (Broncos -6.5)

The Broncos should win this game. Reggie McKenzie has scorched earth-ed the Raiders defense and they are now pretty awful. They cannot stop the pass at all, and Manning should have a great game. I can't see the Raiders D holding Denver to less than 27 or 30. Yet, I am terrified, mostly because a Denver loss here confirms my worst fear that the Manning era in Denver will not go too well, at least in 2012. I don't think this will happen, but I do fear it.

Raiders 17  Broncos 31  (DEN -6.5)


Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)  (Bengals -2.5)

Another line I can't understand. The Jaguars were one minute, and a fluke 80-yard TD, away from 0-3. The Bengals were outclassed in Baltimore, but since have been the best offense in the NFL in Weeks 2-3. Their defense should finally show up now that they get the Jaguars offense to play against. I guess I can see a world where MoJo goes off, but even then I don't know if it will be enough. This isn't a great matchup for the Bengals, but that just means that they'll win by less than 10.

Bengals 24  Jaguars 20  (CIN -2.5)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)


New Orleans Saints (0-3)  @  Green Bay Packers (1-2)  (Packers -7.5)

By far the most interesting game between an 0-3 and a 1-2 team ever. If the Saints can pull this off, the Packers and Saints will both be 1-3. If the Packers win, they Saints will be 0-4, and on an 0-5 streak going back to last season. As for the game, here we have two teams that combined for about 1100 points last season, and so far one team is scoring 27.5 PPG, and the other is scoring at 19.0 PPG!!! Overall, I think the Saints actually give the Packers a good game. The Packers offense has been hampered by facing very good defenses, but their defense has feasted on bad offenses. The Saints might turn it over a lot, but they still can put up yards with the best of them. I think the Packers get key turnovers, and their offense shows some signs of life (4 TDs in 3 games so far) and win a close game.

Saints 24  Packers 28  (NO +7.5)


Washington Redskins (1-2)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)  (Buccaneers -3)

I have nothing to say about this game. It bores me to death. I feel for the regions of the country that get this game and not Saints @ Packers. The Buccaneers seemed like they wanted to end their fan's lives last week in Dallas. The Redskins defense is about as bad as I thought. I have no feel for this game, and honestly, I don't care to develop any.

Redskins 23  Buccaneers 17  (WAS +3)


New York Giants (2-1)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)  (Eagles -1.5)

The Eagles are the worst 2-1 team in the league. Now, they aren't the worst going forward (that would probably be Seattle or the Jets or Minnesota), but the worst through three games. 12 turnovers. Two one-point wins that were enabled by some fortunate plays followed by a harrowing loss in Arizona. The Giants pass-rush rediscovered themselves on Thursday, and they get 10 days to prepare for Vick, who looked about as clueless in terms of pocket-awareness as he ever last against Arizona. I think this line is a weird symbol of some respect for an Eagles team playing a divisional rival at home, but I don't see the Eagles getting too much going in this game. 

Giants 27  Eagles 20  (NYG +1.5)


Chicago Bears (2-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-1)  (Cowboys -3.5)

I really, really want to pick the Bears. Their defense is playing at a level I haven't seen from them since 2006. Their front is so deep and aggresive right now. Their secondary is playing well. Urlarcher and Briggs are still doing what they do. That said, they can't block. Neither can Dallas, but Romo is better under pressure than Cutler. These are, in a way, two pretty similar teams, but I think Dallas, at home, will do enough to get by the Bears defense. However, the one thing that can easily swing this game, and for all I know will, is that little Devin Hester housing one. I'm not betting on Special Teams, but that is really what scares me.

Bears 17  Cowboys 24  (DAL -3.5)


Enjoy the Games

NFL 2012: Week 4 Power Rankings & The Rest

Looking Back at Last Week's Bad, Bad Picks

Panthers -2.5 over Giants  (WRONG  =  0-1)
Bears -7 over Rams  (CORRECT  =  1-1)
Buccaneers +8 over Cowboys  (CORRECT  =  2-1)
49ers -6.5 over Vikings  (WRONG  =  2-2)
Lions -3.5 over Titans  (WRONG  =  2-3)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Bengals +3 over Redskins  (CORRECT  =  3-3)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Jets -2.5 over Dolphins  (CORRECT  =  4-3)  
Bills -3 over Browns  (CORRECT = 5-3)
Chiefs +8.5 over Saints  (CORRECT  =  6-3)
Colts -3 over Jaguars  (WRONG  =  6-4)
Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles  (CORRECT  =  7-4)
Atlanta +3 over Chargers  (CORRECT  =  8-4)
Broncos +3 over Texans  (WRONG  =  8-5)
Steelers -4 over Raiders  (WRONG  =  8-6)
Ravens -2.5 over Patriots  (WRONG  =  8-7)
Packers -3 over Seahawks  (WRONG  =  8-8)


Week 3: 8-8 (Lock: 0-1;  Upset: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 27-20-1 (2-1;  3-0)

Best Picks: Nothing too accurate this week. The closest was I picked the Bears to beat the Rams 23-13 (they won 23-6) and the Bills to beat the Browns 23-16 (they won 24-14).


Power Rankings

32.) Cleveland Browns (0-3  =  57-75)

Hey, welcome back, boys. The Browns really should have won their Week 1 game and were very competitive against the Bengals in Week 2, but they looked desolate and slow in Week 3 against the Bills. Weeden has been decent after an awful Week 1, but this team might be in position to go out and draft Matt Barkley anyway.


31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2  =  52-70)

Hey, nice win on a fluke 80-yard TD. That was a fun way to win. The Jaguars are now 3-2 all time in the Luke. One win we can right off since it was last year, but the other two were both ridiculous. Scobee hit a 56 yard field goal at the gun to win in 2008, and then there was Cecil Shorts. Really? Cecil Shorts??


30.) St. Louis Rams (1-2  =  60-78)

That was as predictable a game as I've seen. The Bears defense is so good, and this offense so inconsistent that it was like watching a movie that you know the ending of. The Rams are too bad to beat good teams, but they'll be competitive against any bad to mediocre team they face. Sadly, though, their division no longer really contains any of those outside of maybe Seattle.


29.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-2  =  68-99)

Congrats for the great comeback over the Saints, but that game says more about the Saints in total disarray (yet, I still have them ranked higher than I should) than it doesa bout the Chiefs. Good to see Jamaal Charles running well again. That is nice. Matt Cassel still looks extremely skittish. The defense really played well especially Justin Houston. I don't think the Chiefs are that good, but that was one nice shining moment.


28.) Tennessee Titans (1-2  =  67-113)

Last week I called them the worst team in the league. Well, they went out and won a game in the most unrepeatable way ever. Sure, they were unlucky to have the Lions catch a hail mary, but they also returned a kick-off for a TD, pulled off the Music City Miracle again, and then got a long fumble return TD. Add that to Schwartz and Shaun Hill botching the OT. My God, that was exciting, but totally, unbelievably, unrepeatable.


27.) Indianapolis Colts (1-2  =  61-83)

Cecil Shorts........... This is not a good Colts team. They might win 5 games. They might still be the second best team in a bad, bad AFC South. But that loss really, really hurt. We basically pulled off what the Jets did to us in the Wild Card game in 2010 (win 17-16), but we left 40 seconds on the clock. Why did we not just put 10 guys in teh box and force Blaine Gabbert to complete more than 10 passes? Really, really frustrating.


26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2  =  60-67)

Josh Freeman had, what, 60 yards passing until that final backdoor-cover field goal drive (thanks for that, Bucs)? That offense is so up and down. The defensive pass rush has improved a ton, though. I'm really happy that Gerald McCoy is finally healthy and really producing. He's always going to be in the shadow of Ndamukong Suh, but he's making his own mark right now.


25.) Carolina Panthers (1-2  =  52-79)

Wow, was that just an awful performance. Ron Rivera is a good defensive coach. I've seen this. But really, how many times does Ramses Barden have to run the same deep in before you figure out a way to stop it. The Panthers offense was bad too, but I think they went away from the run a little too quickly. Cam was bad, but let's remember that he is still a 2nd year player. There was no way he was going to live up to what he was as a rookie. It is more important to see how he responds to that type of game.


24.) Miami Dolphins (1-2  =   65-66)

That was just an ugly, ugly game in every sense. Plus, I'm really angry that it went on so long that I missed the first quarter of the Broncos/Texans game (not that it would've been that fun to watch anyway). Ryan Tannehill is just not good enough right now as a rookie to beat a good defense. It will be interesting to see him next week in Arizona, and by interesting, I mean in a disaster-viewing sense.


23.) New Orleans Saints (0-3  =  83-102)

Again, I have no idea why I'm only dropping the Saints one spot after they blew a 24-6 second half lead at home to a bad team. What is wrong with Drew Brees? This really puts Brees's ridiculous numbers into perspective. The three years (including this one, so far) that he's had a mediocre to bad run game he's thrown 47 interceptions in the 35 games he played. I don't think there is another great QB who is so dependent on having a good run game. We've seen both Mannings, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers and Roethlisberger have fantastic years with bad run games (other than Brady, every QB mentioned has reached had a 12+ win season with one of the worst run games in the NFL). Brees hasn't and maybe can't.


22.) Oakland Raiders (1-2  =  61-88)

That was a wild win, but for Peyton Manning's sake, can that pass defense show up next week. The Raiders two seasons ago had one of the best d-lines in the NFL, but this idea of moving LaMarr Houston outside and getting rid of Trever Scott has really hurt that part. The corners are a mess (I have no idea why McKenzie cut Chekwa and Van Dyke, who both had decent rookie seasons last year). It was nice to see the return of McFadden.


21.) Detroit Lions (1-2  =  87-94) 

I think Shaun Hill's competence in Stafford's place says two things: 1.) Calvin Johnson is really good at making QBs look good, and 2.) Shaun Hill is one of the better backups in the NFL. I don't know how much that dropoff is, but it isn't good. The OT situation was totally screwed up, but it was a sort of poetic justice as they didn't deserve to go to OT in the first place, unlike the last deflected hail mary by the Jags in 2009 that eventually cost the Texans a wild-card berth.


20.) Washington Redskins (1-2  =  99-101)  

Through three games RGIII has a QB Rating over 100, and the Redskins are the highest scoring team in the NFL. That said, without Carriker and Orakpo, that defense is just not good at all. They'll lose a lot of high scoring games, but seeing RGIII fight through adversity with that awful defense will be fun to watch.


19.) Minnesota Vikings (2-1  =  70-59)

That was a really impressive performance, and I'm starting to come around on Christian Ponder, but I don't buy the Vikings long-term. Peterson is still not at full gear and probably won't be until 2013. They need more receivers outside of Harvin. Their defense has really improved from 2011 though, and a lot of that has to do with change and upgrades in the secondary.


18.) New York Jets (2-1  =  81-75)

Man, if Revis didn't go down this could have been a playoff team. I guess they still could be in a wild AFC, but replacing him is just so hard to do. Cromartie is a really good #2 corner, but as a #1 he's just average in that capacity. It is time for Kyle Wilson to really step up after a disappointing two seasons. Also, Sanchez has pretty much shown the world that his Week 1 performance was a fluke. Two straight sub-50% completion percentage days is not exactly what a franchise QB does.


17.) Buffalo Bills (2-1  =  87-79)

Another good performance in beating a worse team. The Bills have an easy enough schedule where that could get them a playoff spot in a weak AFC. Losing Spiller hurts, but if that is replaced by getting Fred Jackson back they should be fine. The Bills defensive line is still underperforming considering the hype and talent they have at that area. It would be great if they breakout next week against the Patriots, because they would need it to beat them.


16.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-1  =  47-66)

My God, did the Eagles look woefully unprepared for that game. Kevin Kolb, however, looked really prepared for that Eagles defense. Michael Vick's pocket awareness is just awful right now. What was also surprising is that the Eagles defense could not generate much of a pass rush against a medoicre o-line. That is not an easy place to play, but the Eagles really didn't even show up. Just a bad performance from a talented team that is really lucky to even be 2-1.


15.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1  =  85-102)

This Bengals offense is really interesting to watch. Andy Dalton has really improved since last season. He's got weapons outside of just AJ Green in Hawkins and that Binns guy, but Dalton just seems more imposing and calm in the pocket this year. That said, what is up with the Bengals defense right now. That defense was so consistent last season but is just falling apart right now. I have to think sooner or later they will right the ship.


14.) Dallas Cowboys (2-1  =  47-54)

Their defense is really good. I didn't buy into Rob Ryan, and I still don't know if I do, but so far he has that defense playing extremely well. Brandon Carr has been a really good addition so far. That said, the offense is almost perfecting my theory about the Cowboys inability to turn yards into points. That really shouldn't have been a game, but they couldn't put the Bucs away.


13.) San Diego Chargers (2-1  =  63-51)

Man, what happened there? I'm not surprised the Chargers couldn't really stop the Falcons offense, but what was up with Philip Rivers? His receivers couldn't get open, he didn't have any rhythm to his game at all. Just a bizarre performance all around. The Chargers should still be a competitor for the division or a Wild Card spot, but that was the Chargers many thought they were.


12.) Seattle Seahawks (2-1  =  57-39)

Lost in the madness of last night was an incredible performance by the Seahawks defense. Sure, they didn't get a sack in the second half but a lot of that was due to the Packers going to more max-protect than anything else. Their defense is just dominant in that building. The NFC West will be really, really interesting. The offense though has major problems. I just don't think Russell Wilson is all that good, but it may not matter for the Seahawks to win 8-9 games.


11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2  =  77-75)

They really need Polamalu and Harrison back. The Steelers defense was a mess when Polamalu missed time in 2009 and is no different now. It's sad because Ben Roethlisberger was absolutely awesome on Sunday. Yes, the Raiders defense right now is porous, but he just scorched them. The Steelers won't go away, especially if Troy and Harrison come back soon, but they are really seemingly an offense-first team right now.


10.) Green Bay Packers (1-2  =  57-54)

What is wrong with the Packers offense. It's like the team has done a literal 180 from last season. The offense is now average while the defense is good. Anyway, back to that offense. Here are their last four games: 20 points against the Giants, including two TDs on drives that should have ended, 22 points against the 49ers with seven off a punt-TD, 23 against the Bears with seven off of a fake-field goal TD, and then 12 in Seattle. Defenses have figured something out, forcing Rodgers to throw short time and time again. They have to figure out a way to counter this new defensive plan.


9.) Denver Broncos (1-2  =  77-77)

Why am I dropping them lower? Again, it's partly because I'm an open and obvious Manning homer. But also because their two losses were six points losses to two teams that happen to be the most impressive teams in the NFL through three weeks. The only team to give the Falcons or Texans games were the Broncos. Yes, they've been down by 20 in both games, but the problems, especially against the Falcons, are fixable (like Manning throwing three picks). If they can get to the bye at 3-3, they should be fine long term.


8.) New England Patriots (1-2  =   82-64)  

It is just weird to see the Patriots at a sub-.500 record. I heard something on the radio that this is the first time Vince Wilfork or Logan Mankins have ever been below .500 in their NFL career. That is just stunning. Anyway, I think it is time to stop anointing the Patriots defense as the great improved unit of the year, and maybe, just maybe, Chandler Jones is not the next Lawrence Taylor. The Patriots offense is fine, but their inability to close out four-minute drives is a problem going forward.


7.) Chicago Bears (2-1  =  74-50)

The longer the season goes, I think we will look back at that TNF game as a fluke. Cutler wasn't great against the Bears, but what wasn't is that incredible defense. Urlacher and Briggs are ageless. That pass rush is better than it has been since about 2006. Stephen Paea and Henry Melton are a really underrated duo of tackles. That is still a really fun defense to watch.


6.) New York Giants (2-1  =  94-65)

You just now the Giants will win this Sunday in Philly and then drop the game the next week. I think at this point that is just what they are. The Giants on last Thursday was the dominant unit that won a Super Bowl. Eli Manning is in that zone that Peyton was where it doesn't matter who the weapons or what the o-line is like. Good to see the pass rush getting back to prime form as well.


5.) San Francisco 49ers (2-1  =  70-65)

That was a stunning loss. Really for the first time since their Week 2 OT loss to Dallas last year were the 49ers just outplayed. They weren't in a game in the 4th quarter for the first time in the Harbaugh era. Personally, I think it is just a fluke, but we'll see going forward. They still have a pretty tough schedule, made tougher with the division being better.


4.) Arizona Cardinals (3-0  =  67-40)

You know who the Cardinals remind me of... The 2011 49ers. Underrated, forgotten QB. Great coach. Great defense with loads of talent in the front-7. Great home-field advantage. They still haven't reached 300 yards in offense in any single game, but you can see Kolb getting more comfortable last week. Their schedule can make it very easy for this team to get to 10 wins, which should be around a magic number.


3.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1  =  98-67)

Can the Ravens just be over .500 on the road? They don't lose home games, but they better do better on the road if they want only home games in the playoffs. Great performance by the offense. Sure, there were a lot of penalty yardage on the New England defense, but the Ravens offense put up 500 yards of their own. Ray Rice was used more, and the real surprise to me is how good Jacoby Jones has been in his role as the 3rd receiver. They one complaint I have is that their defense really needs Terrell Suggs back. That pass rush isn't good enough right now.


2.) Atlanta Falcons (3-0  =  94-48)

They are a really good team, and the most impressive part of the Falcons other than their offense scoring points despite a lack of a running game is the fact that they've played two road games and won by a combined score of 67-27. They've always been good at home in the Ryan/Smith era, but so far the Falcons are actually better on the road in 2011. That is a scary, scary fact for the rest of the NFC.


1.) Houston Texans (3-0  =  88-42)

The Falcons might've gotten a bit lucky in their win over the Broncos, but the Texans deserved every bit of that 20 point lead they held. They are just so complete right now. I still feel scared about the chance that Andre Johnson gets hurt, or if they lose Jonathan Joseph but they have to be the most complete team in the NFL. JJ Watt is an absolute monster, like a younger, more athletic Haloti Ngata. This is a special team right now.


Ranking Next Week's Games


This first game is just bad. I don't know why, but games in St. Louis just seem dull, even if the games are good, like their game against the Redskins.

15.) Seattle Seahawks (2-1)  @  St. Louis Rams (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)



These next three are all games that feature bad teams (in the case of Miami and Tennessee two of the lesser '1-2' teams) against my top three teams in the stadiums of the top three teams. That is a recipe for a blowout. Of course, one of these games will probably end up being a lot closer than what I think, but I have no idea which one. They all seem pretty clear-cut.

14.) Cleveland Browns (0-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (2-1)  (TNF)
13.) Miami Dolphins (1-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (3-0)  (4:05 - CBS)
12.) Tennessee Titans (1-2)  @  Houston Texans (3-0)  (1:00 - CBS)


These next three are games that are being played in the Southeast part of the country, and those games also seem quite dull. Panthers @ Falcons has a chance to be exciting, but I just don't like what I see from the Panthers right now. As for the others, the Bengals and Redskins are two of the more exciting teams, but the teams they are playing want to suck the life out of their fans.

11.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)  (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Carolina Panthers (1-2)  @  Atlanta Falcons (3-0)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Washington Redskins (1-2)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)  (4:25 - FOX)


These next three are division games, and in the case of the latter two, are far more interesting than what they looked to be. San Diego has lost two close, classic night games in the past two seasons in KC. The Patriots Bills game figured to be a good game coming in, but this is different. The Patriots try to avoid a three game losing streak, and the Bills could really hurt New England with a win. The Vikings could also put the Lions in deep trouble early in the season.

8.) San Diego Chargers (2-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
7.) New England Patriots (1-2)  @  Buffalo Bills (2-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (2-1)  @  Detroit Lions (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)


I don't know what makes me like this particular game, but the 49ers will be angry. The Jets will have to adjust to life without Darrelle. It will be an interesting game and a great opportunity to for both teams to make a statement. The 49ers can tell the world that last week was just a bad Sunday, while the Jets can tell the world that Darrelle Revis's injury isn't crippling to their chances.

5.) San Francisco 49ers (2-1)  @  New York Jets (2-1)  (4:05 - CBS)






This is a massive early season game. Personally, I think Denver is a lot better and had the bad luck of playing the two best teams in the league right now over a six-day span, but there is definitely some concern. The Raiders are on a high after that crazy win.

4.) Oakland Raiders (1-2)  @  Denver (1-2)  (4:05 - CBS)




This is probably the worst SNF game so far this year, and that is saying something about the quality of the slate. The Eagles really need to bounce-back, but they might have the same problems with pass protection here. This can be a major statement if the Eagles can win it.

3.) New York Giants (2-1)  @  Philadelphia (2-1)  (SNF)


It seems odd placing a game with two teams that have combined for a 1-5 record at the #2 spot, but it is hard not to be enticed by this game. Both these teams are desperate. The Saints are maybe one loss away from a total collapse. The Packers are fuming off that ending last night. Last year they met in the season opener and it was a classic. Because of the dire circumstances for both, that could repeat itself.

2.) New Orleans Saints (0-3)  @  Green Bay Packers (1-2)  (4:25 - FOX)


This could go like the Bears @ Packers game where Cutler just gets pressured into mistakes, but the Cowboys have a very spotty record at home in prime-time in Jerry World. Overall, they are 3-5, with one of the wins being their Wild-Card rout of Philly in 2009. It will be interesting to see if either of these offenses can get on track after both had miserable Week 2's and mediocre Week 3's.

1.) Chicago Bears (2-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-1)  (MNF)


Picks later in the Week.

NFL 2012: Week 3 Picks

Just the TNF game for now in three sentences.


New York Giants (1-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-1)  (CAR -2.5)

Nicks and Bradshaw are both out, and road teams rarely win the TNF game when the home team is anywhere near decent. Plus, getting just 2.5 is good value. It's almost close to picking straight up here.

Giants 20  Panthers 30  (CAR -2.5)

The rest to come

And now the rest have come...


St. Louis Rams (1-1)  @  Chicago Bears (1-1)  (Bears -7)

In a way, I'm surprised this line is lot lower, as I've heard many people refer to this as a trendy upset pick. I think people are overrating the Rams close home win against the Redskins and overrating the Bears loss on the road on a Thursday to their biggest rival. The Bears are just a much better team, and I expect them to hold down the Rams pretty easily. Their defense is playing at a really high level. On the other side, the Rams have a good pass rush, but not enough to really stop the Bears.

Rams 13  Bears 23  (CHI -7)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (1-1)  (Cowboys -8)

I don't think the Buccaneers are a very good team. I don't think Greg Schiano is a very good coach. Still, I think this is good value for a Buccaneers team that hasn't turned on their ridiculous coach (it will happen when they start 3-7). They can give the Cowboys a good game for now. The Buccaneers are healthy, have the size at receiver to bother the Cowboys secondary, and, again, are right now not a touchdown worse than the Cowboys.

Buccaneers 20  Cowboys 24  (TB +8)


San Francisco 49ers (2-0)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-1)  (49ers -6.5)

I feel like this is stealing in a way. The 49ers beat two better, and in the case of the Packers substantially, teams from the NFC North by eight. Yet, they are only a touchdown favorite against a Vikings team that needed OT to beat the Jaguars and had to come back from 20-6 down to the Colts. That doesn't make much sense. The 49ers will swallow up Peterson, and they will not really let Harvin really get going. I just don't see this as a good matchup at all for the Vikings.

49ers 30  Vikings 13  (SF -6.5)


Detroit Lions (1-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (0-2)  (Lions -3.5)

This is another odd spread. The Titans, through two games, have the worst scoring differential in the NFL. Other than a pass rush against San Diego, have not shown any ability to stop anyone on defense, and have Chris Johnson running for barely a yard a carry. Yet, this line is only 3.5. I probably shouldn't be thinking this way so much, since Vegas generally knows what they are doing, but I think the Lions are good enough to win this game. Calvin Johnson should also dominate the lesser talents in the Titans secondary.

Lions 27  Titans 17  (DET -3.5)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)


Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)  @  Washington Redskins (1-1)  (Redskins -3)

The Redskins looked human in Week 2, and worse, they were human, falling to one of the worst injury days I have seen, losing their best young talents Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo for the year. They might overcome this later, but I really don't see how they will get around it in this game. This is RGIII's home opener, but I'm not sure that means much. It is scary how bad the Bengals defense has been so far, but I think they turn it around here.

Bengals 27  Redskins 24  (CIN +3)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)


New York Jets (1-1)  @  Miami Dolphins (1-1)  (Jets -2.5)

Jets 21  Dolphins 14  (NYJ -2.5)


Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)  @  New Orleans Saints (0-2)  (Saints -8.5)

I have no confidence in this pick. I can see Tamba Hali just dominating Jermon Bushrod. I can see the Chiefs going point-for-point the way the Redskins did in Week 1, but I really can't see the Saints dropping to 0-3, and more importantly 0-2 at home. I don't but the Chiefs offense in this type of game. Cassel is awful against good pass rushes, so he probably will have a decent game, and that offense will keep it close, but not close enough.

Chiefs 24  Saints 31  (KC +8.5)


Buffalo Bills (1-1)  @  Cleveland (0-2)  (Bills -3)

I have no read in this game. I know the Bills are better, but their biggest strength on defense is their pass rush. Unfortunately, the Browns have a good offensive line. The last time these two teams met, the Bills won 13-6. The time before that, in 2009, the Browns won 6-3, and Derek Anderson went 2-17 in a winning effort. So, I think this game will be slightly better, but still involve a '3' and a '6'. I have nothing more to really say about this decrepit game.

Bills 23  Browns 16  (BUF -3)


Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-1)  (Colts -3)

This is good value for the Colts. Luck played well at home, and the Jaguars offense is so bad that they might actually make the Colts defense look good. If the Colts ever had a chance to hold a team to under 20 points this is it. The Colts probably won't get much in the running game, and might not score too many points, but I think the Jaguars are just nowhere right now.

Jaguars 17  Colts 24  (IND -3)


Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)  @  Arizona Cardinals (2-0)  (Eagles -3.5)

By far the most surprising big game in the NFL so far, the Eagles and Cardinals meet in Glendale for the first time since the 2008 NFC Championship. The teams are a little different now, but the game should still be close. The Eagles just cannot turn the ball over as much as they have the last two weeks, as the Cardinals defense is too good to allow the Eagles to put up 450 yards. On the other side, I can see the Cardinals trying to force DRC to cover Fitz, and do what they always do and somehow score enough points.

Eagles 17  Cardinals 20  (ARZ +3.5)


Atlanta Falcons (2-0)  @  San Diego Chargers (2-0)  (Chargers -3)

Hey, it is upset city in the 4:00 hour. The other game featuring two 2-0 teams is also surprising, moreso with the Chargers. Through the Chargers two games their rush defense has been incredible, which makes it pretty certain that Michael Turner won't have a big game. As for the other side, I can see the Falcons secondary posing just enough challenges to Rivers that they hold the Chargers in the 20s. The key is if Matt Ryan can get time and get his receivers open. I say he does, against a Chargers pass rush that is a little inconsistent right now.

Falcons 30  Chargers 24  (ATL +3)


Houston Texans (2-0)  @  Denver Broncos (1-1)  (Texans -2)

Man, after overrating the Broncos after their Week 1 win, people are now underrating them after a Week 2 loss. I think the Broncos at home under Manning is a pretty good bet, especially with that wicked no-huddle in the thin Denver air. By the second half, the Steelers were totally gassed on defense. Manning knows the Texans, and the Broncos rush defense has been really good so far. If they play close to that defensively against the Texans run game, they should be able to pull this one out.

Texans 24  Broncos 27  (DEN +3)


Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)  @  Oakland Raiders (0-2)  (Steelers -4)

This is an awful position for the Raiders, playing a good defense and a good passing offense without both of their opening day corners playing. I heavily doubt Darren McFadden gets it going in this game (he will soon, though). I can see the Steelers defense harassing Palmer. I think it will be closer than many, but that line seems way too low. The Steelers are a better team than a wounded Oakland group.


Steelers 27  Raiders 17  (PIT -4)


New England Patriots (1-1)  @  Baltimore Ravens (1-1)  (Ravens -2.5)

Oh man will this game be fun (a lot more fun if the Colts and Broncos do win earlier in the day). Both teams have so much to play for, the most of all is avoiding a 1-2 start. The Pats need to show the world that they can get by without Aaron Hernandez, as try to get past this Welker mess. I wouldn't be shocked if he has a massive game (or at least gets targeted a lot). The Ravens want revenge for the AFC Title Game, and to answer the questions that their defense is just merely good after a fluke loss last week. The Ravens have made Tom Brady mortal when he's had all his weapons in 2010 and last year's game, and I think they do it just enough here as well.

Patriots 20  Ravens 27  (BAL -2.5)


Green Bay Packers (1-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (1-1)  (Packers -3)

The Seahawks are a good team, but I don't think they are at this level yet. That stadium should be loud and pumping on MNF, but the Packers should be ready with 10 days to prepare. Rodgers gets Jennings back, and although the Seahawks have a secondary that can compete, I don't know if that is really enough in this case. I don't think the Seahawks offense can score enough points to really keep up.

Packers 27  Seahawks 20  (GB -3)


Enjoy the Games!!