Ranking the Non-Playoff Teams & Reason's for Hope for 2023
32.) Chicago Bears = 3-14 (326-463)
They have only good options with that #1 - assuming Justin Fields is the guy.
Look, the Bears stealing the #1 pick is great, but also fair. I do think they are the worst team this season. Fields had moments, and I doubt the Bears cut bait on him. Which makes what they'll do with the #1 pick so interesting - be a trade to someone desperate for a QB, or to go get their edge rusher or something to improve that defense. All of this crests on the idea that Justin Fields can be a good QB.
31.) Houston Texans = 3-13-1 (289-420)
There are a lot of building blocks - but can they get someone to coach them?
The Texans are more talented than you think. For about 6-8 weeks now they've played fairly well, competitive even in lossses to teams like Dallas and Kansas City. They've drafted better than anyone would give them credit for. Of course - they are now looking for a 3rd head coach in three seasons, and it seems they're committed to driving into the "we want to hire Josh McCown" skid. I do hope whoever they hire gets more than a season, and more than anything is not a token black head coach that is obviously getting fired like Culley and Smith were.
30.) Indianapolis Colts = 4-12-1 (289-427)
Hopefully this was bad enough to fire Ballard - but with Irsay you never know?
One day I'm going to write a tome about the downfall of the Colts, with everything going back to Irsay feeling he lost control of hte franchise when Bill Polian pulled the starters in Week 16 in 2009. Ever since then, he's meddled more and more, and I truly hope Irsay goes against what I'm sure is his natural inclination to keep Saturday. Both Saturday, and more than him, Chris Ballard have to go. This is the rock bottom, those last 7 games. But it goes beyond that, with a roster that has fallen apart at crucial spots. There is some talent for the next guy, there just better be a next guy.
29.) Arizona Cardinals = 4-13 (340-449)
Kyler is back I guess - I mean, I guess?
Honestly, I don't have much else. Maybe to say that Steve Kiem is gone, and Kliff likely will be too. Going from 9-2 last year, to 6-17 in the next 23 is just stunning. What I really want to see next year is was Kyler's stagnation more about him, or Kliff being overmatched as a coach. Steve Kiem was well past his expiration date as well. Resets are never easy, but it was so needed here.
28.) Denver Broncos = 5-12 (287-359)
Russell showed some flashes late in the year - but who will coach him?
The last couple games were meaningless, but we did see some improvement from the Broncos offense. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett was just so bad that he tanked Wilson's season more than we thought. That's probably too much of a pass to give Russell, but if he can get a playcaller that works better with his strengths (or hides his weaknesses a bit more) and a healthy Sutton back, next year could be a big improvement. While it was fun to dunk on him this year, it is more likely that he is something closer to the poor-man's version of the Seattle Wilson.
27.) Los Angeles Rams = 5-12 (307-384)
They can't be this injured again - but maybe losing a coach?
Famously, the Rams mortgaged their future to win a Super Bowl, and they did just that. But in reality they mortgaged their present. This is the last season that they don't have their 1st round pick. Starting in the 2024 draft they have their capital. They also can't be so injured at crucial positions. There's no way Kupp is as hurt, or Donald goes down. Stafford, unless the retirement rumors come true (personally, I doubt these) should be back. They are not bad if they are at full strength. But then again, if McVay leaves then this offense is a giant question mark.
26.) Atlanta Falcons = 7-10 (365-386)
Desmond Ridder ended on a high - but don't overreact?
Look it came against a Bucs team that went through the motions, but defense is usually hard to "fake". The Falcons did really well to move the ball there and Ridder looked calm and composed, and Drake London had a nice day. If Ridder is decent, this is a good team next year assuming health otherwise. Yes there's a lot of holes on the defense, but for a team I expected to be among the league's worst, they made it work with Mariota and have a higher ceiling if Ridder is what we saw these last couple weeks.
25.) Carolina Panthers = 7-10 (347-374)
The defense is dominant - the offense needs a reset?
In a weird way, it is a blessing that Darnold broke down these last couple games. He is not the answer at QB. The team is clearly talented elsewhere, and intentionally so by not going throuhg a firesale and holding onto DJ Moore and Brian Burns. They have very little depth (see what happened when Jaycee Horn went out) but the draft can help fix that too. Wilks has done enough to keep his job, but the track record of keeping a successful interim is disastrous.
24.) Tennessee Titans = 7-10 (298-359)
This is what we thought they were - but is it what they did?
If we were told before the season that the Titans would go 7-10, have one of the lesser offenses, but play decent defense despite missing their best pass rusher. That's what this team was after trading AJ Brown and basically admitting they know they're capped with Tannehill. It seemed the Titans were aware of their limitations. But then they started 7-3, lost a couple of games and fired their GM. So I don't really know. Obviously 2022 was a step back from the competence of 2019-2021, but it was a predictable one. Maybe the only people that lost the plot was the Titans themselves getting fooled by the 7-3 start.
23.) Cleveland Browns = 7-10 (361-381)
They get a full season of Watson - but what is Watson?
I think because they were already out of the playoffs, and no one wanted to think about Watson anyway, we all overlooked just how bad he was when he came back. By basically all metrics, Watson was as bad as Zach Wilson in his limited time as the Browns starter. Their record was OK because the defense stepped up considerably, but he was just bad. In theory a full year of Watson is a brighter outlook, but I'm sure a lot of people are rooting for the Watson that bumbled around for seven weeks is the one the Browns are stuck with.
22.) Las Vegas Raiders = 6-11 (395-418)
A lot of metrics will point to them improving - but McDaniels?
The Raiders did a lot of things that would make people think they're set to jump up. Namely, they lost a bunch of close games and end up with a good point differential for a six-win team. Teams like this usually get better. What will go against all of that is McDaniels starting to do what he does - with the Carr situation deteriorating and not having a clear Plan B. Maybe it's Rodgers or Brady or a big swing, but maybe it's McDaniels outsmarting himself and getting stuck with Kyle Orton.
21.) New York Jets = 7-10 (296-316)
Everything's set for them - but the QB
The two big questions about the Jets coming into the year were (1) is Wilson a decent QB and (2) can Saleh fix the defense. Well, 50% isn't bad I guess. The defense absolutely got fixed, both with an influx of free agent talent, and Saleh's coaching working better with players having a year under their belt. But Wilson was worse than I think anyone imagined and very likely has no future in New York. They are a team ready-made for an average-type starter (Carr, Garoppolo) or even a big swing. Will be very interesting to monitor. If you tell me one of these bottom-12 teams is going 12-5 next year, they might be the best bet.
20.) New Orleans Saints = 7-10 (330-345)
Good underlying numbers - but Dennis Allen? What the Hell
As I write this, there seems to be a sense Allen is coming back. I don't get it. Yes, he had some good years as their defensive coordinator. And at the end of the day the Saints from a performance perspective are decent with upward mobility (maybe capped by Andy Dalton seemingly locked in as the starter). But Allen cost them a game that in retrospect maybe wins them the division (the loss to the Bucs on MNF). Allen is not good enough as a head coach to give them that upward mobility.
19.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 9-8 (308-346)
The foundation is there for bigger things - but what of Pickett
With their 7-2 finish to the season to somehow give Mike Tomlin another winning record, it's clear the Steelers should be seen as a contender to rise to the playoff rank next year. They have good players everywhere and the record when TJ Watt plays is promising. However, what if Pickett doesn't get much better. He was good, but he was always the "NFL ready + low ceiling" starter, and as we look at the 2022 AFC Playoff Teams - having a top QB seems quite necessary. I'll never question what they can do, but I do wonder how much better this version of the Steelers can be.
18.) Washington Commanders = 8-8-1 (321-343)
Good roster that is getting better - but they may do something dumb at QB
If anything, that sentence describes the 2022 Commanders also, with Rivera's musical chairs at QB probably costing them a playoff spot. If anything, this is the perfect place for a Derek Carr or a Jimmy Garoppolo. Even without Chase Young for most of the season, the Commanders fielded a good pass rush - which shouild improve if Young is there for a full season. Dotson gives a good second option behind McLaurin. As with most teams the OL can use some help, but the one thing they can't do is be unsettled at QB.
17.) New England Patriots = 8-9 (364-347)
Bill Belichick can still coach a mean defense - but what about the rest
The Patriots defense is still good. Belichick can still scheme his way through games, generally overmatching anything worse than above average offenses. But of course that offense was a mess. I think the rookie Mac Jones is still in there, and I assume here that there will be a change at OC. What is more stunning though is the rapid decline of the Patriots special teams. Their ST units were always great previously, but that drop-off is as concerning in a "is Belichick losing it?" way as the offense. At the end of the day thoiugh, with Judon, Barmore and all the Jones-es, they'll have a good defense.
16.) Green Bay Packers = 8-9 (370-371)
The late season surge was real - but if Rodgers leaves...
It definitely seemed like Rodgers played his last game yesterday. But I hope not because that Lions game notwithstanding, the Packers offense did get better as the season went on. Rodgers chemistry with Dobbs, and moreso Watson really improved as the season went on. The OL started to stabilize. The Packers are not a bad team, but Rodgers may just be done with it at this point. If he only had the NFC South.
15.) Detroit Lions = 9-8 (453-427)
Building the Monster is fun - but don't assume energy will take you there
I love everything about this Lions team, mostly because behind all the Dan Campbell bluster, they're a really well coached team, including now on the defensive side as Aaron Glenn's grown into that DC role. But I do have a worry that people often assume momentum, even in an ultimately non-playoff season, will just carry over through an offseason. The Lions can't rest. They have cap space. They have a decision to make around Goff. They have two first round picks. The path is there, but always strive for improvement.
Award Predictions:
MVP
5.) Josh Allen (QB - BUF)
4.) Jalen Hurts (QB - PHI)
3.) Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)
2.) Joe Burrow (QB - CIN)
1.) Patrick Mahomes (QB - KC)
I don't think this is too surprising. Allen had a rough stretch in the middle of the season but with his added rushing value still makes a Top-5 MVP candidate for me. Hurts obviously got hurt (no pun intended) but still had an incredible campaign. I always like to have one non-QB in here, and Jefferson's insane season where he was so key in winning many of the record 11 close wins the Vikings had, is a large part of that etam somehow going 13-4. His catch to keep the Bills game alive (and his whole 10-catch, 193-yard performance) in that game was a legendary play. Burrow improved on his performance from last season, and kept the Bengals churning even when Ja'Marr Chase missed four games. His ability to throw with such insane accuracy is special.
But none of them come close to Mahomes. No Hill, no problem, as the Chiefs were so far and away the best offense in the NFL despite having to integrate a bunch of new weapons (aside from of Kelce). Mahomes had quietly one of the most efficient passing seasons in recent memory - not as good as his 2018 campaign, but far closer than one would think. The Chiefs offense was the one standout offense in a down year for offense overall, and while it was a nice debate for a while, from the second Hurts got hurt, this was Mahomes's MVP.
OPOTY
3.) Patrick Mahomes (QB - PIT)
2.) Tyreek Hill (WR - MIA)
1.) Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)
I won't rehash Mahomes. He basically can't win this because for a QB you need to have historic raw numbers and he didn't. It comes down to these two receivers to me, and I give the edge to Jefferson mainly because his volume numbers and explosive plays were just a bit more. I wouldn't be mad in the slightest if Hill got it over him, but Justin Jefferson was a demon the entire season, finishing off what is the best first three seasons for a WR since Moss (if not Rice himself).
DPOTY
3.) Quinnen Williams (DT - NYJ)
2.) Chris Jones (DT - KC)
2.) Chris Jones (DT - KC)
1.) Nick Bosa (DE - SF)
Micah Parsons slowing down late in the season leaves him outside looking in. Quinnen Williams was nigh unblockable at his peak and the best player on one of the best defenses in the NFL this year. Chris Jones had his best year of his career, matching career highs in sacks and hits and playing better against hte run than he ever has before. For Bosa, he locked this up a while back. Easily the league leader in sacks and QB hits. Dominant on a per-snap basis. Despite missing two games, this is an easy call.
COTY
3.) Mike Tomlin (PIT)
2.) Kyle Shanahan (SF)
1.) Doug Pederson (JAX)
I'll throw Tomlin in here for someway, somehow getting this team to above .500, even after a 2-6 start and needing to mix and match QBs and deal with injuries. Just a great job. Shanahan vs. Pederson is tough. On the Shanahan side, he had to deal with teh QB injuries, and led that offense under Purdy to a 5-0 record. But the best element of the 49ers is their defense - adn while yes, Shanahan did have to deal with a 2nd and 3rd string QB, the 2nd string is just plain better than the starter and I'm of the opinion of Lance just doesn't get hurt they probably aren't as good. For Pederson, to come in after the steaming pile of shit that was Urban Meyer, and take that team to the playoffs, with five straight wins to end it, was massive. Yes, Pederson was the coach for the 4-8 start as well, but they were better than that record (hence my constant comparison's to Pederson's 2016 Eagles team). Shanahan probably will win, and it will be deserved, but I would give it to Pederson by a hair.
Ranking Next Week's Games (assuming Tua and Lamar play)
6.) Seattle Seahawks (9-8) @ San Francisco 49ers (13-4) - Sat, 4:30 - FOX
There's a reason the NFL waited until the end of the SNF to announce the schedule. I'm sure Packers @ 49ers would not have been the Saturday opener. Anyway, we've seen this matchp and the Seahawks could barely move the ball. Yes there's the whole "it's tough to beat the same team three times" but there's no real evidence beyond anecdotes behind that to begin with.
5.) New York Giants (9-7-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (13-4) - Sun, 4:30 - FOX
The NFC Playoffs may get good Divisional Weekend, but not so here. Granted, these two teams played a great one a few weeks back, but that was probably the best case scenario for these two teams. I'm probably being unfair here because the Vikings generally play good games - or once a month they'll get blown the fuck out.
4.) Baltimore Ravens (10-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) - Sun, 8:15 - NBC
Again, this ranking is assuming Lamar plays, but even if he does, I figure they'll be a bit rusty and the rest of the offense just is not good enough. One aspect to watch out for is the Bengals OL if Alex Cappa is out, adding to already not having Lae'l Collins (tough). That could be a factor that swings things, with the Ravens defense having gone basically three months playing super well.
3.) Dallas Cowboys (12-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) - Mon, 8:15 - ESPN
I'm already debating whether its important enough to my mental sanity to watch this game. This was basically assured for weeks but the Cowboys have hit a rut, and while the Buccaneers have shown nothing other than an ability to torch a street cornerback from the Panthers, this is just the matchup for the Buccaneers to win in some bullshit way. If not for there being a Manning-cast broadcast, I wouldn't watch it.
2.) Miami Dolphins (9-8) @ Buffalo Bills (13-3) - Sun, 1:00 - CBS
If Tua plays, we get the third matchup of what was two great games. The first the Dolphins 21-19 escape in a heat wave, adn then the Bills 32-29 escape in a snowstorm. If Tua plays, these just play great games. I have a sneaking suspicion he isn't playing which could really put a damper in things, especially with Raheem Mostert almost assuredly out. The history of these two teams is the ranking here.
1.) Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) - Sat, 8:15 - NBC
I can't believe they chose this one for the Saturday Night game. Definitely Saturday Night is less of a prime slot than it used to be prior to the playoff expansion (which created SNF and now MNF playoff games), but I'm still surprised they're trusting Herbert vs. Lawrence. And they should. Likely the winner loses next week no matter what, but this is just a fascinating matchup with the two QBs. I'm surprised that the Chargers opened up as a favorite. But either way, Duval will be rocking.
