(N7) Seattle Seahawks (9-8) @ (N2) San Francisco 49ers (13-4) (SF -9.5)
The Seahawks haven't earned much respect, twice losing badly to the 49ers and being a bit slow to end the season. But in their last four games the defense has started to crest, and on the other side, the 49ers offense, while still scoring a bunch, has started to wobble slightly with Purdy having a few more "oh shit" (in a bad way) plays. None of this makes me actually think the Seahawks can beat the 49ers. The talent gap is too large, and the Seahawks only chance really is for Purdy to turn it over multiple times. The 49ers offense matches up too well, being able to run the ball more or less at will. In the end, this is a big number, and the only one this week where the underdog isn't starting a 3rd string QB. I think the Seahawks cover the number, but the 49ers are just too good right now.
Seahawks 14 49ers 23 (SEA +9.5)
(A5) Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) @ (A4) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) (LAC -2.0)
This is a tough game to pick, namely because my first reaction is full surprise that the Chargers are favored. Our most recent experience was seeing a Chargers team play all their starters and lose in Denver, with a defense that has regressed a bit these past two weeks. The Jags have won five straight, playing good defense as well with a more regular pass rush. If they can get home enough, Lombardi will probably return to his qucik horizontal passing game which is exactly what the Jags would want. The game comes down to me if the Jags offense can run on the Chargers. I think they can. The line surprises me, mainly because on evidence, the Jags might be just a better team.
Chargers 23 Jaguars 27 (JAX +2.0)
(A7) Miami Dolphins (9-8) @ (A2) Buffalo Bills (13--3) (BUF -13.0)
It's now confirmed that Tua is not playing and it's almost certainly going to be the Sklar Thompson show, the same show that scored 9 points against the Jets. This changes the game, in a sense my question now is can the Dolphins avoid a 13-point line, rather than can the Dolphins win. The Dolphisn can't. In terms of covering, it really comes down to can the Bills avoid the turnovers that made some of their games closer than need be. The Bills should lean on the run a bit - something they've done well against Miami in both earlier games. Miami has some other injuries which just make this tough. I'm pretty sure the stats on teams trying to cover double-digit lines in the playoffs points to them usually not making it, but with Thompson, a revved up Buffalo crowd, I just can't imagine the Bills not laying the hammer.
Dolphins 10 Bills 27 (BUF -13.0)
(N6) New York Giants (9-7-1) @ (N3) Minnesota Vikings (13-4) (MIN -3.0)
We all know the story of the Vikings being by far the msot fraudulent 4-loss team of all time, but while many will call this the Giants getting a lucky draw, it is for the Vikings as well, because as average the Vikings are - the Giants are right there. The Giants excel at not turning the ball over and running the ball (4th in the league). The Vikings turn it over a decent amount, so that's not great, but the relative strength (or lesser weakness) of their defense is the run. The Vikings also have a guy named Jefferson, and much like he did the last time, he can take over this game against a Giants team that really doesn't have a great player to stop him. The Vikings are maybe the least respected 4-loss team, but I think they'll at minmum have the chance to be that team for one more week.
Giants 20 Vikings 27 (MIN -3.0)
(A6) Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ (A3) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) (CIN -8.5)
**May update if Lamar does play**
Ravens 13 Bengals 27 (CIN -8.5)
(N5) Dallas Cowboys (12-5) @ (N4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) (DAL -2.5)
I really can't pick this game without letting emotion come into play. So annoyed they went with this one along with it being the final Manningcast of the season. I of course will watch it because of the Mannings, but man I know I'm going to have multiple moments where I just want to turn it off. Anyway, a turnover-prone Cowboys team is the perfect opponent for this below-average Bucs team to steal a playoff win.
Cowboys 20 Buccaneers 23 (TB +2.5)
