Before I dive into the games, I just want to marvel at how we really have the best four teams left standing. More than that, heading into last Sunday (so after the first two Divisional Game) we had the Top-6 left, and there really were six teams just better than the others. The Bills were a disappointment, but the Cowboys played the 49ers close and now we have the best four left. This is probably the first time since 2018 that we have the clear Top-4 left standing. There's no 2019 Titans or 2017 Jags to mess around with. We have a perfect set of games, and honestly every combination of Super Bowl should be a great one.
(N2) San Francisco 49ers (13-4) @ (N1) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Sun, 3:00 - FOX | PHI -2.5
The Matchup: Arguably the best two teams in the league, if not the two most complete teams play first. The only exception to that might be the two QBs. The Eagles are the league's best pass defense (by DVOA, as most of these stats will be based on) and rush offense, and top-10 in pass offense. Their only real "weakness" is a 21st ranked rush defense unit, but one that improved over the course of the season. The 49ers are the league's best overall defense, ranking in the Top-5 on both pass and rush defense, and a Top-5 pass offense. The only "weakness" is a 13th ranked rush offense. So basically other than the 49ers rushing against the Eagles, every other matchup is elite vs. elite. What may decide the game is if the Eagles superior red zone offense and defense convert more 3s into 7s. The other area is if their best in the league OL can keep Bosa and Armstead at bay. The one edge the 49ers may have their is their strength is the edge, vs the Eagles strength in the middle. The final area to look out for is the Eagles great deep passing game, which is the one area the 49ers struggle at covering.
The Pick: In many ways this as a game of two great teams, but I keep coming back to every edge, however slight, points towards the Eagles. They have the OL to keep the pass rushers at bay long enough to find deep shots with Brown and Smith. They have the best run game in the league. They have better red zone offense and defense. And their biggest strength on defense is a league best pass rush. The one area Purdy struggled with is getting moved off his spot against Dallas. I just see the Eagles being able to repeat that. Ultimately, Dallas's defense played well enough to win, but their offense couldn't score 20 points. I see the Eagles being able to do it. They have a lot of similarities (strong OL & run game, deep passing) that the Raiders used to great effect against the 49ers. The 49ers have paths to win, namely McCaffrey against a poor set of LBs on the Philly side, but to me its just less of them.
49ers 17 Eagles 24 (PHI -2.5)
(A3) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) @ (A1) Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
Sun, 6:30 - CBS | KC -2
The Matchup: The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL. Despite losing Tyreek Hill, they've turned Kelce and a bevy of other team's #2 weapons (MVS, JuJu, Toney) into an incredibly efficient attack. Their investments in the OL have paid off well enough to have a Top-10 rush offense by DVOA, being able to take over games on the ground. The Bengals are a good not great defense that obviously had an excellent game last week in Buffalo, but people I think are starting to overplay their ability a bit. Especially vs the Chiefs - other than the second half in last year's title game, the Chiefs have been able to consistently move the ball. To me, what really drives this game is the other matchup - can the Chiefs get enough pressure on the patchwork OL of the Bengals to not let Burrow go up and down the field. That's the side that has really driven two of the games. Burrow's short passing game has really taken off this year, but in reality its a lot about using the backs really well. Good thing for them is the Chiefs linebackers aren't great in coverage. The Chiefs secondary is a bit underrated now that it is healthy and McDuffie is back as a starter. Chris Jones has huge matchup edges against the Bengals interior, but he'll need Frank Clark and Karlaftis to show up as well. The Chiefs are the 2nd worst red zone defense, but luckily they have the 2nd best red zone offense to counter (Bengals are bottom half of Top-10 on each). Both offense have edges here, but the Chiefs have the one real standout unit.
The Pick: I'm writing this as if Mahomes will be basically healthy, as much as he looked during his midweek appearances. The final edge of this game for me comes to whether how much of the Bengals surprising OL performance last week is due to the Bills weakness upfront, vs the Bengals actually gelling with backups. The Bengals OL can still be their weak point, even if Burrow has done well to throw quickly to compensate. The Chiefs biggest strength on defense is their front, anchored by the likely runner-up DPOY in Chris Jones. He has to have a massive game here. Also I do think we're a bit underestimate Steve Spagnuolo's ability as a game planner. This is the same man who's consistently had good playoff performances, and can draw up a blitz like anyone. Not that I expect the Chiefs to really slow down the Bengals all to much, but enough so to let their offense carry them. Again, this is all written in the thinking that Mahomes will be basically normal. If he's gimpy, the Bengals are likely winning.
Bengals 24 Chiefs 28 (KC -2)
