(A4) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) @ (A1) Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
Sat, 4:30 - NBC | KC -8.5
The Matchup: The Chiefs are the best offense in the NFL. Maybe the Bills have as high a ceiling, and the 49ers have a great run at the moment, but the Chiefs are the best. They have the best offensive DVOA, the best passing DVOA. They have the most yards/drive, the most points/drive. Granted, in none of these stats are they close to all-time great, but they are the best this year. They have a healthy OL. They have healthy weapons. The Jaguars do not, though their pass rush has improved over the course of hte season. The Jags best chance to win is to do great in the red zone (where the Chiefs defense is 2nd worst) and get some pressure on Mahomes, and get a few turnovers. Not likely, to be honest. The Chiefs are a mediocre defense, but aside from red zone they have no real huge weaknesses. The Jaguars are calling plays excellently, but I just don't see them having enough answers.
The Pick: I think the Chiefs will win this game, the question is can they cover this high a number? There is a huge chance for a backdoor cover here, especially with the Chiefs tendency to let teams come back from big deficits. I think that will happen here, with enough red zone TDs allowing it to stay within reach.
Jaguars 23 Chiefs 30 (JAX +8.5)
(N6) New York Giants (9-7-1) @ (N1) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Sat, 8:15 - FOX | PHI -7.5
The Matchup: With divisional matchups we can turn to the prior games, but not sure how helpful they are to picking this game. The Eagles smacked the Giants in the first game, about as bad as a 48-22 score would indicate, running and throwing at will. The Eagles won the rematch in Philly but barely won against the Giants 'B' team. Not so easy here. The Giants do a lot of things that could help them stay close. They match the Eagles general good-ness in the red zone and on third downs. Their protection is above average to somewhat slow the pass rush of the Eagles. The Giants also for the most part just have stopped turnning the ball over. The big issue though: despite Dexter Lawrence's general brilliance, the Giants have the worst rush defense DVOA, while the Eagles, unsurprisingly, are the best rush offense by DVOA. If Hurts is healthy, I can absolutely see them just running over the Giants. Since their week 9 bye, the Giants have given up more than 100 rushing yards in every game but the two Vikings games, including 253 to the Eagles the first time aroud. That is not good.
The Pick: I just can't get over the rushing defense vs. rushing offense mismatch here. Sometimes it does come down to just that. Better teams can maybe count on their offense to put a game out of reach to force the Eagles to throw more and abandon the run. I don't think that happens here. The Giants are a better team than the one that lost 48-22, and are a better team than the one that smoke-and-mirrored their way to a 6-2 start (ironically, since their record after was worse), but this is a mismatch.
Giants 13 Eagles 31 (PHI -7.5)
(A3) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) @ (A2) Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Sun, 3:00 - CBS | BUF -5.5
The Matchup: All of these games are rematches, although technically this one isn't. The game didn't happen. In the three drives we had in Cincinnati, both teams moved the ball with ease. Both offenses are better, but the defenses have higher ceilings than you think. Their offenses are fairly even, the Bills ranked #2 in DVOA (#2 passing, #11 rushing) and the Bengals #4 (#7 / #4). It is on the other side that in theory the gap is - the Bills defense grades out better (#4 DVOA for Buffalo, #11 for Cincinnati). In a lot of other places, they're well matched. Both teams are Top-10 in red zone offense and defense. If there is a mismatch, it is the Bills league-best 3rd down offense (by conversion rate) against the Bengals 20th ranked defense. That could extend the game - leading to the big issue? Can the Bills not give the ball away. They were 31st in the league in most turnovers, though where they really struggled was fumbling. That can easily turn things around.
The Pick: The Bills are a better team. For all their iffy play at times, they led in all three of their losses, and on a per-play basis way outplayed the Dolphins last week (vs. Cincinnati, who arguably lost on a play-to-play basis). But this matchup is intriguing for a Bengals team. To me it comes down to if the Bills rotational pass rush can win against the porous OL of Cincinnati. Personally, I think they can. Despite their losses, despite something playing down to competition, the Bills have been the best team from start to finish of the season.
Bengals 17 Bills 27 (BUF -5.5)
(N5) Dallas Cowboys (12-5) @ (N2) San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
Sun, 6:45 - FOX | SF -4.0
The Matchup: With a little shine of the Eagles after their 1-2 finish, you could argue these are the best two teams in the NFC. Certainly with the 49ers bevy of weapons healthy, they seem so complete - and more than anything healthy. The Cowboys have a great roster, as they showed in their undressing of the Bucs, but numerous defenders came up gimpy at various points in that game. Both of their offenses were incredible in teh Wild Card round, but if anything these are defense first teams, ranking 1st (SF) and 2nd (DAL) in DVOA. If you want a couple edges, the Cowboys are #1 in red zone offense, and Top-10 in red zone defense. The 49ers are middle in the pack in both. That tracks with the fact despite being such a brilliant play caller, the 49ers situational football stats are generally just average. On straight personnel, the 49ers seem stronger. On specific areas, it might be the Cowboys. Namely the OL, where one of the league's best in Dallas may be able to give Prescott enough time to throw against the relative weakness of the 49ers (their secondary). That said, the strength of the 49ers DL is their edge, which is the relative weakness of Dallas.
The Pick: This is just a great game. Much like last year when we had Bills @ Chiefs to end the divisional round, this final course has so much promise attached to it. In the end, I do like Dallas here to not only cover, but win. Their defense is so locked in. Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan know each other well, which is an interesting wrinkle, but Quinn has being a lot of non-Dan Quinn stuff this year. I do think with Tyron Smith back, the Cowboys OL can give Prescott more time than we think. The Cowboys edges in the red zone and on 3rd down just tips it over the scale for me. Should be a great one either way.
Cowboys 24 49ers 20 (DAL +4.0)
