2022 NFL Playoffs: Championship Sunday Review

Player of the Week: Chris Jones (DT, KC)

Dominant game from someone who needed to be that. The Chiefs biggest advantage was overwhelming the Bengals backups, and while all of the lineman did well (more on that later) but Jones was just massive. A lot was said about his lack of a playoff sack, an unimaginable statistic, especially since he's generally still disruptive. But in this game from flushing Burrow into a sack and then getting a sack on those first two drives. Then the capper to end it with the sack that led to the Bengals needing to punt it back. Aside from maybe Mahomes, he was the best player on the field. To me, the Chiefs would win that game on defense if they could slow Burrow and Co., and because of their best player, they did just that.

Runner-Up: Hasson Reddick (EDGE, PHI)

Nothing exemplified the Eagles dominance, and the sad injury in the game, more than Reddick's play. The first sack-fumble effectively ended the game by taking away Purdy's ability to throw. The second sack against Johnson came in a flash that showed they were going to win that particular battle of OL vs. DL. I hate to credit someone for injuring another player, but it was a clean hit with a bad outcome, and it was due to Reddick's speed and brilliance.

Goat of the Week: Kyle Shanahan (I guess...)

I can't blame him for the predicament he probably found himself in at QB. But we can question if keeping Purdy in the game when he clearly could not throw, and the Eagles knew he couldn't throw, rather than going to some version of a Wildcat. If you're going to run it every play, and the other team knows that, it is far easier to attempt that wildcat style where you get the extra blocker. Anyway, as it comes in the runner-up as well, there weren't huge goats here. We had one close game that was generally well played, and one blowout where the blowout-ness was wholly explainable by one single element with the QB injury.

Runner-Up: The Refs, but not the way you think

The refs didn't cost the Bengals the game. The closest it comes to that was a missed block-in-the-back on the punt return before the game winning field goal. The hold on the Mahomes run really isn't one if you watch the play. The two iffy calls - the 3rd down do-over and the grounding - didn't really effect too much. The reason I still have the refs here is more to say that there weren't many other huge goats and anytime the refs just do a lot, even if it doesn't end up being impactful, the story becomes about the refs, in an annoying way. I just hope the refs aren't a story in the Super Bowl.

Surprise of the Week: 49ers Secondary

The 49ers had one real weakness on defense and it was defending deep passes. The Eagles biggest strength on offense is hitting deep passes. Well, in this one the 49ers absolutely won that matchup. Charvarious Ward was brilliant, but the 49ers secondary on the whole draped the Eagles deep. Of course, it didn't matter in the game itself because of the QB issues on the other side, but the good play by the secondary kept it closer than the game should have really been.

Runner-Up: Chiefs Secondary

After Sneed went down early, the Bengals should have dominated the Chiefs secondary. Part of the reason they didn't is Chris Jones and Co. up front (more on them to come) but the secondary was great given it was three rookies at corner - crystallized by the play where Cook batted the ball to Watson. The youngsters played pretty well against the best receiver group in the NFL. Yes, them letting Chase catch a bomb on 4th down while double-covering him was a bad look, but they still had the coverage and lost to a monster in Chase. We'll see on Sneed's availability, but they'll need to play great again given Brown & Smith are probably right behind Chase & Higgins.

Disappointment of the Week: 49ers predicament

I'm not disappointed in the 49ers, I'm disappointed for them. That game was over the second Purdy got hurt. Johnson was passable (actually threw it better than I expected) but it was clear he was not going to get the time, and the running game, one amazing CMC run aside, was not up to par. That should have been a great game. The NFC has done a lot of that over the years ever since 2015, with great title games on paper becoming laughers (2015, 2017 the main culprits). This wasn't supposed to be one of those, but it was because of just some terrible injury luck.

Runner-Up: Chiefs Running Game

The Chiefs invested a lot in their OL and it has worked. What was a glaring weakness the last time they were in teh Super Bowl, is now a strength. They were silently a top running team this season. Then, in a game where their QB was a bit hobbled and theri WRs were injured, they needed that running game ot show up, and the Chiefs got absolutely nothing from it. Now, granted the Bengals are a good rush defense, but Pacheco and McKinnon were mostly useless, lucky to get 3 yards on a play. The one positive I guess is they were rarely stuffed behind the line, but the Chiefs had to face so many 2nd and 9s. A poor game from what had been a good unit all year.

Team Performance of the Week: Chiefs Front-7

Chris Jones was the superstar performer, but the whole front was excellent. Frank Clark was good in moments. Karloftis was excellent, continuing just a great rookie season for him. Dana was a constant presence. The much-maligned LB core was excellent to, with both Gay and Nick Bolton were excellent against the run, and more importantly shutting down Burrow's throws to his RBs far better than most have in recent weeks. They made Burrow have to try reverting to 2021 Burrow mode where deep shots with Chase and Higgins became the primary focus of the offense again. The Chiefs front was scorched by the Bengals in the regular season game. They got their revenge in this one.

Runner-Up: Eagles OL

With just two games to talk about, it is hard to avoid positive and negative choices here not to often be the converse of each other. That's the case here, with the 49ers DL disappointing, but mainly because the Eagles OL won that matchup left and right. Kelce was great in motion in the middle. Lane Johnson somehow held his own against Bosa despite haivng a serious injury. The rest of the line is excellent and played that way, just bouncing 49ers DL players left and right. Great game by a dominant unit against a really good opponent.

Team Laydown of the Week: Bengals OL

Yes, there were three backups, but those same three backups got their plaudits last week for holding off the Bills, so they should get their flak for being so poor in this one. Obviously Chris Jones is amazing, but around him the Bengals lost consistently. Their run game, which was so good against the Bills, was completely missing here. They invested a lot in the line, and granted they were missing some of their top players, but this was a miserable performance.

Runner-Up: 49ers DL

Yes, the Eagles have the league's best OL, but the 49ers DL got manhandled on most plays. Bosa was reasonably good, but Armstead was silent. Kinlaw was pushed around all over the place. They got burned on cutbacks. If not for both LBs having great games, the numbers would ahve looked even worse. Yes, the 49ers were put in a very tough position, but their all world DL did not help things at all. In a game where they needed those guys needed to step up and be their most dominant best, they just weren't. The clips of 49ers DLineman getting tossed around is just a bad look for a team that also talked a lot.

Storyline that will be Beat Into the Ground: Andy vs the Eagles

Along with the Kelce vs. Kelce matchup, Andy Reid coaching in the Super Bowl against the Eagles will be a huge story. There is some interest, but personally it doesn't really grab me. First, it's been ten years since he last coached there. Reid got fired after 2012, and while they danced with Chip Kelly for a minute, ever since Howie Roseman took back control and Perderson (a Reid acolyte) was hired they've been fine. Secondly, if anything Red leaving Philadelphia and landing in KC has cemented his legacy as a coach far more than had he stayed in Philadelphia. It took a while to crystallize - both with Pederson replacing Kelly and Reid getting Mahomes - but the Reid exit was a true win-win. It's a nice story, but Reid is beloved in Philadelphia (and he was instantly, getting loud cheers when the Chiefs played in Philly in 2013) and seemingly its mutual.

Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground: Spags the Conqueror

Steve Spagnuolo is coaching in his 4th Super Bowl. He too was a Philly guy way back when, a disciple of Jim Johnson. But more than anything, he's a big-game coordinator that, I'm guessing due to his disastrous run as a head coach, he gets no real credit for. His Giants back-to-back-to-back performances in 2007 are arguably the greatest three-game run of playoff defense given the level of competition. He remained good in 2008 despite Strahan retiring and Osi tearing his ACL. His run in KC has been consistent in getting middling defensive rosters (admittedly with a couple standouts) into passable units. His defense was as much a key to the 2019 Super Bowl comeback as was the offense. Their worst playoff performance in the Mahomes era was either the Super Bowl loss where the Bucs had excellent field position, or the Bills going super-saiyan and converting a bunch of 4th downs lsat year. His scheme was great again on Sunday, repeatedly finding ways to get Jones and others single-blocked, and making a bunch of rookies into a well connected secondary. He is the real X factor in this game.

2022 NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships Picks

Before I dive into the games, I just want to marvel at how we really have the best four teams left standing. More than that, heading into last Sunday (so after the first two Divisional Game) we had the Top-6 left, and there really were six teams just better than the others. The Bills were a disappointment, but the Cowboys played the 49ers close and now we have the best four left. This is probably the first time since 2018 that we have the clear Top-4 left standing. There's no 2019 Titans or 2017 Jags to mess around with. We have a perfect set of games, and honestly every combination of Super Bowl should be a great one.

(N2) San Francisco 49ers (13-4)  @  (N1) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Sun, 3:00  -  FOX  |  PHI -2.5

The Matchup: Arguably the best two teams in the league, if not the two most complete teams play first. The only exception to that might be the two QBs. The Eagles are the league's best pass defense (by DVOA, as most of these stats will be based on) and rush offense, and top-10 in pass offense. Their only real "weakness" is a 21st ranked rush defense unit, but one that improved over the course of the season. The 49ers are the league's best overall defense, ranking in the Top-5 on both pass and rush defense, and a Top-5 pass offense. The only "weakness" is a 13th ranked rush offense. So basically other than the 49ers rushing against the Eagles, every other matchup is elite vs. elite. What may decide the game is if the Eagles superior red zone offense and defense convert more 3s into 7s. The other area is if their best in the league OL can keep Bosa and Armstead at bay. The one edge the 49ers may have their is their strength is the edge, vs the Eagles strength in the middle. The final area to look out for is the Eagles great deep passing game, which is the one area the 49ers struggle at covering.

The Pick: In many ways this as a game of two great teams, but I keep coming back to every edge, however slight, points towards the Eagles. They have the OL to keep the pass rushers at bay long enough to find deep shots with Brown and Smith. They have the best run game in the league. They have better red zone offense and defense. And their biggest strength on defense is a league best pass rush. The one area Purdy struggled with is getting moved off his spot against Dallas. I just see the Eagles being able to repeat that. Ultimately, Dallas's defense played well enough to win, but their offense couldn't score 20 points. I see the Eagles being able to do it. They have a lot of similarities (strong OL & run game, deep passing) that the Raiders used to great effect against the 49ers. The 49ers have paths to win, namely McCaffrey against a poor set of LBs on the Philly side, but to me its just less of them.

49ers 17  Eagles 24  (PHI -2.5)

(A3) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)  @  (A1) Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

Sun, 6:30  -  CBS  |  KC -2

The Matchup: The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL. Despite losing Tyreek Hill, they've turned Kelce and a bevy of other team's #2 weapons (MVS, JuJu, Toney) into an incredibly efficient attack. Their investments in the OL have paid off well enough to have a Top-10 rush offense by DVOA, being able to take over games on the ground. The Bengals are a good not great defense that obviously had an excellent game last week in Buffalo, but people I think are starting to overplay their ability a bit. Especially vs the Chiefs - other than the second half in last year's title game, the Chiefs have been able to consistently move the ball. To me, what really drives this game is the other matchup - can the Chiefs get enough pressure on the patchwork OL of the Bengals to not let Burrow go up and down the field. That's the side that has really driven two of the games. Burrow's short passing game has really taken off this year, but in reality its a lot about using the backs really well. Good thing for them is the Chiefs linebackers aren't great in coverage. The Chiefs secondary is a bit underrated now that it is healthy and McDuffie is back as a starter. Chris Jones has huge matchup edges against the Bengals interior, but he'll need Frank Clark and Karlaftis to show up as well. The Chiefs are the 2nd worst red zone defense, but luckily they have the 2nd best red zone offense to counter (Bengals are bottom half of Top-10 on each). Both offense have edges here, but the Chiefs have the one real standout unit.

The Pick: I'm writing this as if Mahomes will be basically healthy, as much as he looked during his midweek appearances. The final edge of this game for me comes to whether how much of the Bengals surprising OL performance last week is due to the Bills weakness upfront, vs the Bengals actually gelling with backups. The Bengals OL can still be their weak point, even if Burrow has done well to throw quickly to compensate. The Chiefs biggest strength on defense is their front, anchored by the likely runner-up DPOY in Chris Jones. He has to have a massive game here. Also I do think we're a bit underestimate Steve Spagnuolo's ability as a game planner. This is the same man who's consistently had good playoff performances, and can draw up a blitz like anyone. Not that I expect the Chiefs to really slow down the Bengals all to much, but enough so to let their offense carry them. Again, this is all written in the thinking that Mahomes will be basically normal. If he's gimpy, the Bengals are likely winning.

Bengals 24  Chiefs 28  (KC -2)

2022 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Review

Player of the Week: George Kittle (TE, SF)

The best played game of the weekend turned on one play. Yes, we can talk about Dak's turnovers in a bit, but it turned on a broken play where Purdy was chased a bit and threw an ambitious seam ball to Kittle, who batted it to himself, bobbled it, and caught it for 25 yards. That plus four other catches totalling 95 yards, got hte 49ers moving. It opened Dallas up a bit. He was great all night as a blocker as well. On a day where Deebo and CMC were held down quite well by a game Dallas defense, Kittle was the best player on the field.

Runner-Up: Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

It was a banner weekend for tight-ends. Hayden Hurst had a great game, as did Dallas Goedert. But Travis Kelce was a monster, with 14 catches for 98 yards. Yes, most were short, but nearly all were successful in moving the chains and keeping the Chiefs in rhythm. So many on third down, or to get a 2nd or 3rd & manageable. The two TDs. He was just ever present. I'll talk in a bit about what the Jags failed at, but right now this is just a TE playing about as well as possible at that position (unless Kittle is playing it better....)

Goat of the Week: Buffalo Bills Defense

We'll talk about the Bills offense later, but man was that a disaster on defense. I've never seen a DL get pushed around so much, both in the run or pass. They just seemed stuck and slow. I get that Von Miller is missing, but the rush defense had stayed fairly good even post Von (unlike hte pass rush which fell off mightily). That should have been a better performance. The Bengals just tore them up. The secondary also had a bunch of miscommunications. The Bills are generally one of the better coached defensive units, but this was just a disaster. Giving up just 27 points was extremely flattering a total.

Runner-Up: Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

One week you're the hero, the next week you're the goat. Thems the breaks. I think people should remember as they criticize Prescott today (fairly), that he was equally as magnificent last week. That too was a playoff game. In this one though, all the worst tendencies came out. The two picks are the headline, and they were both bad (even if the second was a bit unlucky with the deflection). But outside of those two throws he was a bit gun-shy. He was late on reading through his progressions. He tried fitting balls a bit too much. It was not the best day for Dak, admittedly against an excellent defense.

Surprise of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals OL

On the converse side, the Bengals OL was incredible. Especially needing to play three backups (granted, La'el Collins was bad this year, so that may be a neutral switch, if not a positive). They were just perfect in run blocking, totally exploting the light boxes they faced. They did a great job in pass coverage, especially up the middle, which without Von is usually the Bills relative strength. Burrow gets rid of the ball quickly, but in this one he didn't even need to with how well the Bengals OL just stoned the Bills.

Runner-Up: 

Disappointment of the Week: Buffalo

I'll talk more about this later, but man that was a sullen loss. The whole team seemed off from the very first drive letting the Bengals right down, followed by Allen barely missing what could've been a huge shot play. The offense just seemd a step off all day, a few missed catches, a couple missed reads. The running game wasn't bad, but got 3-4 yards when the Bengals were getting 6-8. Nothing really worked. People will hammer them and cast doubt on their longer term outlook. I'll get into that later, but for this one game, it is fully deserved. Teams have laid an egg in the divisional round at home before (hell, I've seen my favorite team/player do it often). Sometimes it means nothing, like Pats losing in 2010 to the Jets and then running off eight straight AFC Title Game appearances. But other times its a harrowing sign of things to come. For what was such a promising season, and one where at the end of the day they went 14-4 (13-3 regular season) and were one of the best teams wire to wire, this is a rough one.

Runner-Up: The Overall Round

The divisional round is the best weekend in the NFL season, if not hte best full weekend of sports in the sports calendar in the US. But this year came up short. Granted, we just came off a season with teh best divisional round maybe ever, with three last-second FG games and the Bills-Chiefs epic last year. Also, this year's Wild Card round was sneakily excellent. But when the second most competitive game was the Chiefs beating the Jags 27-20 after leading basically wire to wire, we have a bit of an issue. The NFL never lets us down multiple years, and we are left with two mouth-watering Title Games, so all is not lost.

Team Performance of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles OL

The Bengals great OL performance was a surprise. The Eagles dominating with Kelce, Johnson & Co isn't a surprise. It is the norm. But even then they were exceptional in that game. The Giants DL is strong, and had a guy playing like a madman recently with Dexter Lawrence, and the Eagles just stonewalled them. Running lanes all over the place. All the time in the world for Hurts. Lane Johnson looked perfectly healthy coming back, and how Kelce is this good at his age is beyond all of us. Bless these boys, making OL cool again in the year 2023.

Runner-Up: Kansas City Chiefs running game

How did the Chiefs not lose a beat with two drives without Mahomes, and then with a gimpy Mahomes? Well, Kelce helped, but more than that the run game came to life. Pacheco was great. McKinnon was good. This OL continued its great play in recent weeks. The Chiefs quietly have become one of teh most efficient running teams. Often that is a sign of light boxes because of the superstar QB, but this was even when the QB wasn't his normal self.

Team Laydown of the Week: Giants DL

I hate doing related performance & laydown, because always one does begat the other, but I think its needed here. My word was the Giants DL nowhere to be seen. They had great success in the Week 18 game, but in this one went so quiet. Lawrence did nothing, neither did anyone else. Looking back, the second the Eagles cut through this DL like butter on that opening drive, we knew the game was over.

Runner-Up: Jaguars LBs

Like maybe try covering Kelce? Just not a great week for any of the Josh Allens. Not only did Kelce run free, but the running game for the Chiefs was given free reign to churn out yards and the blitzes that worked fairly well at times were completely missing as well. The Jags defense was given a tall task, made easier by Mahomes's injury, but their middle level proved wholly incapable of providing any resistence.

Storyline that will be Beat Into the Ground: Bengals own the Chiefs

The Bengals may beat the Chiefs, it might be more likely than not given Mahomes's ankle. But they're not going to win this time just because they've won three in a row. Let's take a look at the three games. The Chiefs had leads in all of them. Twice had two-touchdown leads (last year's regular season game, the AFC Title Game). Sure, it says something that they've blown these games, and the Bengals definitely don't fear the Chiefs. But this is not some Patriots beat Colts in mid-2000s stuff. These are just two teams that played three coin flips that came up heads each time. That happems all the damn time.

Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground: Let's Not Bury the Bills

Yes, the Bills missed a great opportunity this season, but a Bills team missing Von Miller, Micah Hyde (plus his replacement in Hamlin), Dequan James (their best run stuffer), are not as good as the Bengals. That has no bearing on 2023. The Bills will still be a great team. We've seen teams lose badly in the playoffs one year and be fine the next. If anything, this Bills last three years mirrors well my Colts from 2003-2005. First they lose on the road in the AFCCG; then lose in the divisional round to the same opponent the next year. Finally, they don't have to play that team, but a younger upstart beats them in 2005 in a suillen loss. Look up what happened in 2006 boys - things were fine. Yes, they need more reinforcements on the OL, but you have to think another year of experience for Shakiir, for Elam, for the young pass rushers. And finally Josh Allen is still incredible. There is still a future here.

2022 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

(A4) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)  @  (A1) Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

Sat, 4:30 - NBC  |  KC -8.5

The Matchup: The Chiefs are the best offense in the NFL. Maybe the Bills have as high a ceiling, and the 49ers have a great run at the moment, but the Chiefs are the best. They have the best offensive DVOA, the best passing DVOA. They have the most yards/drive, the most points/drive. Granted, in none of these stats are they close to all-time great, but they are the best this year. They have a healthy OL. They have healthy weapons. The Jaguars do not, though their pass rush has improved over the course of hte season. The Jags best chance to win is to do great in the red zone (where the Chiefs defense is 2nd worst) and get some pressure on Mahomes, and get a few turnovers. Not likely, to be honest. The Chiefs are a mediocre defense, but aside from red zone they have no real huge weaknesses. The Jaguars are calling plays excellently, but I just don't see them having enough answers.

The Pick: I think the Chiefs will win this game, the question is can they cover this high a number? There is a huge chance for a backdoor cover here, especially with the Chiefs tendency to let teams come back from big deficits. I think that will happen here, with enough red zone TDs allowing it to stay within reach.

Jaguars 23  Chiefs 30  (JAX +8.5)

(N6) New York Giants (9-7-1)  @  (N1) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Sat, 8:15 - FOX  |  PHI -7.5

The Matchup: With divisional matchups we can turn to the prior games, but not sure how helpful they are to picking this game. The Eagles smacked the Giants in the first game, about as bad as a 48-22 score would indicate, running and throwing at will. The Eagles won the rematch in Philly but barely won against the Giants 'B' team. Not so easy here. The Giants do a lot of things that could help them stay close. They match the Eagles general good-ness in the red zone and on third downs. Their protection is above average to somewhat slow the pass rush of the Eagles. The Giants also for the most part just have stopped turnning the ball over. The big issue though: despite Dexter Lawrence's general brilliance, the Giants have the worst rush defense DVOA, while the Eagles, unsurprisingly, are the best rush offense by DVOA. If Hurts is healthy, I can absolutely see them just running over the Giants. Since their week 9 bye, the Giants have given up more than 100 rushing yards in every game but the two Vikings games, including 253 to the Eagles the first time aroud. That is not good.

The Pick: I just can't get over the rushing defense vs. rushing offense mismatch here. Sometimes it does come down to just that. Better teams can maybe count on their offense to put a game out of reach to force the Eagles to throw more and abandon the run. I don't think that happens here. The Giants are a better team than the one that lost 48-22, and are a better team than the one that smoke-and-mirrored their way to a 6-2 start (ironically, since their record after was worse), but this is a mismatch.

Giants 13  Eagles 31  (PHI -7.5)

(A3) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)  @  (A2) Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Sun, 3:00 - CBS  |  BUF -5.5

The Matchup: All of these games are rematches, although technically this one isn't. The game didn't happen. In the three drives we had in Cincinnati, both teams moved the ball with ease. Both offenses are better, but the defenses have higher ceilings than you think. Their offenses are fairly even, the Bills ranked #2 in DVOA (#2 passing, #11 rushing) and the Bengals #4 (#7 / #4). It is on the other side that in theory the gap is - the Bills defense grades out better (#4 DVOA for Buffalo, #11 for Cincinnati). In a lot of other places, they're well matched. Both teams are Top-10 in red zone offense and defense. If there is a mismatch, it is the Bills league-best 3rd down offense (by conversion rate) against the Bengals 20th ranked defense. That could extend the game - leading to the big issue? Can the Bills not give the ball away. They were 31st in the league in most turnovers, though where they really struggled was fumbling. That can easily turn things around.

The Pick: The Bills are a better team. For all their iffy play at times, they led in all three of their losses, and on a per-play basis way outplayed the Dolphins last week (vs. Cincinnati, who arguably lost on a play-to-play basis). But this matchup is intriguing for a Bengals team. To me it comes down to if the Bills rotational pass rush can win against the porous OL of Cincinnati. Personally, I think they can. Despite their losses, despite something playing down to competition, the Bills have been the best team from start to finish of the season.

Bengals 17  Bills 27  (BUF -5.5)

(N5) Dallas Cowboys (12-5)  @  (N2) San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

Sun, 6:45 - FOX  |  SF -4.0

The Matchup: With a little shine of the Eagles after their 1-2 finish, you could argue these are the best two teams in the NFC. Certainly with the 49ers bevy of weapons healthy, they seem so complete - and more than anything healthy. The Cowboys have a great roster, as they showed in their undressing of the Bucs, but numerous defenders came up gimpy at various points in that game. Both of their offenses were incredible in teh Wild Card round, but if anything these are defense first teams, ranking 1st (SF) and 2nd (DAL) in DVOA. If you want a couple edges, the Cowboys are #1 in red zone offense, and Top-10 in red zone defense. The 49ers are middle in the pack in both. That tracks with the fact despite being such a brilliant play caller, the 49ers situational football stats are generally just average. On straight personnel, the 49ers seem stronger. On specific areas, it might be the Cowboys. Namely the OL, where one of the league's best in Dallas may be able to give Prescott enough time to throw against the relative weakness of the 49ers (their secondary). That said, the strength of the 49ers DL is their edge, which is the relative weakness of Dallas.

The Pick: This is just a great game. Much like last year when we had Bills @ Chiefs to end the divisional round, this final course has so much promise attached to it. In the end, I do like Dallas here to not only cover, but win. Their defense is so locked in. Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan know each other well, which is an interesting wrinkle, but Quinn has being a lot of non-Dan Quinn stuff this year. I do think with Tyron Smith back, the Cowboys OL can give Prescott more time than we think. The Cowboys edges in the red zone and on 3rd down just tips it over the scale for me. Should be a great one either way.

Cowboys 24  49ers 20  (DAL +4.0)

2022 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Review

Player of the Week: Dak Prescott

That was a masterpiece. It didn't look super great through a couple drives, but my word were drives 3+ amazing. Prescott I would argue has never played a bad game. The Bucs defense is not bad, but he was controlling the game, reading them well, that Bowles inevitably got blitz happy and every time Dak was on point. Some of the throws were high risk, but man did they pay off with high reward. Prescott needed that performance after an iffy end to the year, even if it was a bit unlucky how turnover prone he was. This was that performance. The Cowboys can, dare we say it, win the Super Bowl if this Prescott shows up three more times.

Runner-Up: Daniel Jones

Jones has quietly been great for a while now, mainly by sharply cutting his turnovers and just in general improving his accuracy. That was all well and good but this was taking those elements up a notch. Yes, the Vikings defense is atrocious, but this was a great performance for his first playoff game, especially ahead of what should be a fun contract negotiation this summer. Jones also kept his scrambling, but more as a backup plan aside from a couple designed runs. There was a lot of pressure on him, especially with Saquon having a quiet game. Danny Dimes delivered.

Goat of the Week: The Buccaneers

It's not just about Brady, though absolutely he was not good yesterday and part of the problem, throwing balls wildly away at the slightest hint of pressure. But this is about the team, both for yesterday and all year. Given their preseason over/under was 11.5, and they struggled to 8-9 and then were drummed in the Wild Card game, I truly wonder if this is the most disappointing single season team since the "Dream Team" Eagles. This was a disaster. The OL was bad, the running game pathetic. The defense got way too trigger happy. Coaching was bad. And yes, Brady was not good in the slightest.

Runner-Up: The Chargers Offense

It's weird to criticize a team for putting up 30 points, but given the short fields, 30 points seem poor. And more to the point, from the moment they got the lucky punt fumble setting them up at the 6-yard line, their offense was plain bad. All the symptoms that they've had all year - way too many short throws. Way too little creativity. All of it so sadly familiar. As I write this, they've already fired Joe Lombardi. I do hope someone comes in and fixes what should be a great offense - not a scared one that lucked their way into 30 points but couldn't get to the 33 they needed.

Surprise of the Week: The Teams with backups (not the niners)

Aside from the Bucs, none of the losers were truly disappointing and aside from the Cowboys, none of the winners were truly surprising. So here, let's go with the Ravens and Dolphins for playing damn hard starting Skyler Thompson and Tyler Huntley. Neither offense was great, but the Dolphins made up for it with the high-risk / high-reward defensive approach that gave up a ton of yards but made enough game changing plays to take a 24-20 lead. The Ravens on the other hand just upped every other part of their game to compensate, with some great playcalling, defense, and doing everything right except the QB "sneak". In the end, while both did lose, they made for a far more compelling Wild Card Weekend than we had a right to expect.

Runner-Up: The Cowboys Secondary

Travonne Diggs gets all the press, and he was good aside from one play where he got beat by Evans but Evans couldn't catch a slight overthrow. But all the guys around Diggs were excellent. Constantly reading Brady well. Giving up very little YAC. The Cowboys DL made work of the Bucs OL, but even when they didn;'t get home quickly, Brady generally had nothing easy open downfield - even during their late game nickel and dime stat padding session. Great performance by the 'Boys on this one.

Disappointment of the Week: The Bengals Offense (yes, in a win)

Yes, it is hard to play the same team three times, but I would've thought the Bengals had a few more new ideas than whatever it is they tried to do there. They kept feeding Chase short which did work, but they fully just gave into the Ravens dominating their injured OL. The Bengals offensive performance worried me a whole lot more than Buffalo's - this was just a mediocre session by a team that while on a big win streak and having nice overall stats, is not operating at the level it did at its best last year on offense.

Runner-Up: The Bills Poise

In the end DVOA and most advanced stats think the Bills dominated the Dolphins. Even normal stats would agree given they outgained them 2:1 but this is a worrying sign that the Bills melted down a bit in the 2nd quarter through to the fumble-six. The OL is a weakness but tehy were worse than normal. Allen decided to basically only throw bombs for a game to quickly diminishing returns. There were drops. There was a lack of poise. The Bills composure is generally way better in big games (see the almost calm offense they played in KC this year) but we have to hope they can flip that switch against a much better team.

Team Performance of the Week: The Cowboys OL

They had injuries. They had Jason Peters playing snaps at an age where he absolutely shouldn't be doing so. They had every reason to have a tough time against what is generally still a good front. But instead, starting from future hall of famer Zack Martin winning battles against Vita Vea on outwards, the Dallas OL was awesome. Great edge blocking to get Pollard good runs. They churned the Bucs, ground them down to dust. They gave Prescott time more often than not. It was a masterpiece.

Runner-Up: The Ravens defense

I'll admit, I was on a boys trip this weekend out in Palm Springs/Joshua Tree, so I didn't see significant portions of many games. So that's why most of these are from the games I saw a bit more of. The Ravens defense was excellent - as it has consistently been since trading for Roquan Smith. How well Mike McDonald's team generated pressure was stunning - even if it was against a patchwork OL. Their secondary was awesome against Higgins and Boyd, and even limited Chase for the most part. They needed every bit of Ravens ingenuity to keep close, and they got it.

Team Laydown of the Week: Vikings Defense

I know the Vikings defense is not good. They've proven that all year. But man was it atrocious, so much so I considered not giving Jones a shoutout in player of the week for that reason. They played soft zones and (1) didn't stop Jones from running effectively and (2) gave up all kinds of yardage by not tackling well. Seriously just a mess all around. The Vikings need a long, hard reset on that side of the ball.

Runner-Up: The Seahwaks Defense

Speaking of which, the whole "third time playing a team" didn't really work here. You can't even blame playing a new QB since they played Purdy before, and played him a whole lot better that time. I get that Shanahan is a great play designer and play caller, but man were guys just wide open running deep crossers in this one. Maybe this is just a sign that the 49ers offense is in that good of a groove, but I expected a whole lot more from them.

Storyline that will be Beat Into the Ground: The NFC Beast

We've been hearing it all year about how great the NFC East is - and or good reason. They've done super well getting three playoff teams and the other at 8-8-1. But now we get the view that this is the first division since 1997, and the first since realignment in 2002, to send three teams to the divisional round, and the NFC East takes are going wild. Yes, we get it, they had a great year. But in the end it was just a weird year in the NFC Playoffs, where the Giants beat an equally bad playoff team, and the Cowboys beat an overmatched weakling. In the end, what is most present is while the NFC East has three teams, the best team might be the one non-NFC East one.

Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground: The Jags??

I don't want to get ahead of myself here, but the Jags are super interesting, not so much of where they are, but what they represent. Doug Pederson has turned this team around incredibly fast. All year I've made illusions to the 2016 Eagles (Pederson's first year there). Those Eagles went 6-10, but scored 36 more points than they gave up, ended up quite high in DVOA. These Jags arne't as good by DVOA, but scored 54 more points than they allowed. They have a young potential prodigy at QB. They are also a bit reminiscent of last year's Bengals, the upstart team that was the #4 seed that made good, with a young #1 overall pick in his second year, that all of sudden we woke up and saw in the Super Bowl. It is more likely the Jags lose this weekend then end up in the Super Bowl for sure, but it is still fun to think about.

2022 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Picks

Away this weekend, so these will probably be quicker than normal.

(N7) Seattle Seahawks (9-8)  @  (N2) San Francisco 49ers (13-4)  (SF -9.5)

The Seahawks haven't earned much respect, twice losing badly to the 49ers and being a bit slow to end the season. But in their last four games the defense has started to crest, and on the other side, the 49ers offense, while still scoring a bunch, has started to wobble slightly with Purdy having a few more "oh shit" (in a bad way) plays. None of this makes me actually think the Seahawks can beat the 49ers. The talent gap is too large, and the Seahawks only chance really is for Purdy to turn it over multiple times. The 49ers offense matches up too well, being able to run the ball more or less at will. In the end, this is a big number, and the only one this week where the underdog isn't starting a 3rd string QB. I think the Seahawks cover the number, but the 49ers are just too good right now.

Seahawks 14  49ers 23  (SEA +9.5)

(A5) Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)  @  (A4) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)  (LAC -2.0)

This is a tough game to pick, namely because my first reaction is full surprise that the Chargers are favored. Our most recent experience was seeing a Chargers team play all their starters and lose in Denver, with a defense that has regressed a bit these past two weeks. The Jags have won five straight, playing good defense as well with a more regular pass rush. If they can get home enough, Lombardi will probably return to his qucik horizontal passing game which is exactly what the Jags would want. The game comes down to me if the Jags offense can run on the Chargers. I think they can. The line surprises me, mainly because on evidence, the Jags might be just a better team.

Chargers 23  Jaguars 27  (JAX +2.0)

(A7) Miami Dolphins (9-8)  @  (A2) Buffalo Bills (13--3)  (BUF -13.0)

It's now confirmed that Tua is not playing and it's almost certainly going to be the Sklar Thompson show, the same show that scored 9 points against the Jets. This changes the game, in a sense my question now is can the Dolphins avoid a 13-point line, rather than can the Dolphins win. The Dolphisn can't. In terms of covering, it really comes down to can the Bills avoid the turnovers that made some of their games closer than need be. The Bills should lean on the run a bit - something they've done well against Miami in both earlier games. Miami has some other injuries which just make this tough. I'm pretty sure the stats on teams trying to cover double-digit lines in the playoffs points to them usually not making it, but with Thompson, a revved up Buffalo crowd, I just can't imagine the Bills not laying the hammer.

Dolphins 10  Bills 27  (BUF -13.0)

(N6) New York Giants (9-7-1)  @  (N3) Minnesota Vikings (13-4)  (MIN -3.0)

We all know the story of the Vikings being by far the msot fraudulent 4-loss team of all time, but while many will call this the Giants getting a lucky draw, it is for the Vikings as well, because as average the Vikings are - the Giants are right there. The Giants excel at not turning the ball over and running the ball (4th in the league). The Vikings turn it over a decent amount, so that's not great, but the relative strength (or lesser weakness) of their defense is the run. The Vikings also have a guy named Jefferson, and much like he did the last time, he can take over this game against a Giants team that really doesn't have a great player to stop him. The Vikings are maybe the least respected 4-loss team, but I think they'll at minmum have the chance to be that team for one more week. 

Giants 20  Vikings 27  (MIN -3.0)

(A6) Baltimore Ravens (11-6)  @  (A3) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)  (CIN -8.5)

**May update if Lamar does play**

Ravens 13  Bengals 27  (CIN -8.5)

(N5) Dallas Cowboys (12-5)  @  (N4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)  (DAL -2.5)

I really can't pick this game without letting emotion come into play. So annoyed they went with this one along with it being the final Manningcast of the season. I of course will watch it because of the Mannings, but man I know I'm going to have multiple moments where I just want to turn it off. Anyway, a turnover-prone Cowboys team is the perfect opponent for this below-average Bucs team to steal a playoff win.

Cowboys 20  Buccaneers 23  (TB +2.5)

NFL 2022: Post Regular Season Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the Non-Playoff Teams & Reason's for Hope for 2023

32.) Chicago Bears  =  3-14  (326-463)

They have only good options with that #1 - assuming Justin Fields is the guy. 

Look, the Bears stealing the #1 pick is great, but also fair. I do think they are the worst team this season. Fields had moments, and I doubt the Bears cut bait on him. Which makes what they'll do with the #1 pick so interesting - be a trade to someone desperate for a QB, or to go get their edge rusher or something to improve that defense. All of this crests on the idea that Justin Fields can be a good QB.

31.) Houston Texans  =  3-13-1  (289-420)

There are a lot of building blocks - but can they get someone to coach them?

The Texans are more talented than you think. For about 6-8 weeks now they've played fairly well, competitive even in lossses to teams like Dallas and Kansas City. They've drafted better than anyone would give them credit for. Of course - they are now looking for a 3rd head coach in three seasons, and it seems they're committed to driving into the "we want to hire Josh McCown" skid. I do hope whoever they hire gets more than a season, and more than anything is not a token black head coach that is obviously getting fired like Culley and Smith were.

30.) Indianapolis Colts  =  4-12-1  (289-427)

Hopefully this was bad enough to fire Ballard - but with Irsay you never know?

One day I'm going to write a tome about the downfall of the Colts, with everything going back to Irsay feeling he lost control of hte franchise when Bill Polian pulled the starters in Week 16 in 2009. Ever since then, he's meddled more and more, and I truly hope Irsay goes against what I'm sure is his natural inclination to keep Saturday. Both Saturday, and more than him, Chris Ballard have to go. This is the rock bottom, those last 7 games. But it goes beyond that, with a roster that has fallen apart at crucial spots. There is some talent for the next guy, there just better be a next guy.

29.) Arizona Cardinals  =  4-13  (340-449)

Kyler is back I guess - I mean, I guess?

Honestly, I don't have much else. Maybe to say that Steve Kiem is gone, and Kliff likely will be too. Going from 9-2 last year, to 6-17 in the next 23 is just stunning. What I really want to see next year is was Kyler's stagnation more about him, or Kliff being overmatched as a coach. Steve Kiem was well past his expiration date as well. Resets are never easy, but it was so needed here.

28.) Denver Broncos  =  5-12  (287-359)

Russell showed some flashes late in the year - but who will coach him?

The last couple games were meaningless, but we did see some improvement from the Broncos offense. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett was just so bad that he tanked Wilson's season more than we thought. That's probably too much of a pass to give Russell, but if he can get a playcaller that works better with his strengths (or hides his weaknesses a bit more) and a healthy Sutton back, next year could be a big improvement. While it was fun to dunk on him this year, it is more likely that he is something closer to the poor-man's version of the Seattle Wilson. 

27.) Los Angeles Rams  =  5-12  (307-384)

They can't be this injured again - but maybe losing a coach?

Famously, the Rams mortgaged their future to win a Super Bowl, and they did just that. But in reality they mortgaged their present. This is the last season that they don't have their 1st round pick. Starting in the 2024 draft they have their capital. They also can't be so injured at crucial positions. There's no way Kupp is as hurt, or Donald goes down. Stafford, unless the retirement rumors come true (personally, I doubt these) should be back. They are not bad if they are at full strength. But then again, if McVay leaves then this offense is a giant question mark.

26.) Atlanta Falcons  =  7-10  (365-386)

Desmond Ridder ended on a high - but don't overreact?

Look it came against a Bucs team that went through the motions, but defense is usually hard to "fake". The Falcons did really well to move the ball there and Ridder looked calm and composed, and Drake London had a nice day. If Ridder is decent, this is a good team next year assuming health otherwise. Yes there's a lot of holes on the defense, but for a team I expected to be among the league's worst, they made it work with Mariota and have a higher ceiling if Ridder is what we saw these last couple weeks.

25.) Carolina Panthers  =  7-10  (347-374)

The defense is dominant - the offense needs a reset?

In a weird way, it is a blessing that Darnold broke down these last couple games. He is not the answer at QB. The team is clearly talented elsewhere, and intentionally so by not going throuhg a firesale and holding onto DJ Moore and Brian Burns. They have very little depth (see what happened when Jaycee Horn went out) but the draft can help fix that too. Wilks has done enough to keep his job, but the track record of keeping a successful interim is disastrous.

24.) Tennessee Titans  =  7-10  (298-359)

This is what we thought they were - but is it what they did?

If we were told before the season that the Titans would go 7-10, have one of the lesser offenses, but play decent defense despite missing their best pass rusher. That's what this team was after trading AJ Brown and basically admitting they know they're capped with Tannehill. It seemed the Titans were aware of their limitations. But then they started 7-3, lost a couple of games and fired their GM. So I don't really know. Obviously 2022 was a step back from the competence of 2019-2021, but it was a predictable one. Maybe the only people that lost the plot was the Titans themselves getting fooled by the 7-3 start.

23.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-10  (361-381)

They get a full season of Watson - but what is Watson?

I think because they were already out of the playoffs, and no one wanted to think about Watson anyway, we all overlooked just how bad he was when he came back. By basically all metrics, Watson was as bad as Zach Wilson in his limited time as the Browns starter. Their record was OK because the defense stepped up considerably, but he was just bad. In theory a full year of Watson is a brighter outlook, but I'm sure a lot of people are rooting for the Watson that bumbled around for seven weeks is the one the Browns are stuck with.

22.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-11  (395-418)

A lot of metrics will point to them improving - but McDaniels?

The Raiders did a lot of things that would make people think they're set to jump up. Namely, they lost a bunch of close games and end up with a good point differential for a six-win team. Teams like this usually get better. What will go against all of that is McDaniels starting to do what he does - with the Carr situation deteriorating and not having a clear Plan B. Maybe it's Rodgers or Brady or a big swing, but maybe it's McDaniels outsmarting himself and getting stuck with Kyle Orton.

21.) New York Jets  =  7-10  (296-316)

Everything's set for them - but the QB

The two big questions about the Jets coming into the year were (1) is Wilson a decent QB and (2) can Saleh fix the defense. Well, 50% isn't bad I guess. The defense absolutely got fixed, both with an influx of free agent talent, and Saleh's coaching working better with players having a year under their belt. But Wilson was worse than I think anyone imagined and very likely has no future in New York. They are a team ready-made for an average-type starter (Carr, Garoppolo) or even a big swing. Will be very interesting to monitor. If you tell me one of these bottom-12 teams is going 12-5 next year, they might be the best bet.

20.) New Orleans Saints  =  7-10  (330-345)

Good underlying numbers - but Dennis Allen? What the Hell

As I write this, there seems to be a sense Allen is coming back. I don't get it. Yes, he had some good years as their defensive coordinator. And at the end of the day the Saints from a performance perspective are decent with upward mobility (maybe capped by Andy Dalton seemingly locked in as the starter). But Allen cost them a game that in retrospect maybe wins them the division (the loss to the Bucs on MNF). Allen is not good enough as a head coach to give them that upward mobility.

19.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  9-8  (308-346)

The foundation is there for bigger things - but what of Pickett

With their 7-2 finish to the season to somehow give Mike Tomlin another winning record, it's clear the Steelers should be seen as a contender to rise to the playoff rank next year. They have good players everywhere and the record when TJ Watt plays is promising. However, what if Pickett doesn't get much better. He was good, but he was always the "NFL ready + low ceiling" starter, and as we look at the 2022 AFC Playoff Teams - having a top QB seems quite necessary. I'll never question what they can do, but I do wonder how much better this version of the Steelers can be.

18.) Washington Commanders  =  8-8-1  (321-343)

Good roster that is getting better - but they may do something dumb at QB

If anything, that sentence describes the 2022 Commanders also, with Rivera's musical chairs at QB probably costing them a playoff spot. If anything, this is the perfect place for a Derek Carr or a Jimmy Garoppolo. Even without Chase Young for most of the season, the Commanders fielded a good pass rush - which shouild improve if Young is there for a full season. Dotson gives a good second option behind McLaurin. As with most teams the OL can use some help, but the one thing they can't do is be unsettled at QB.

17.) New England Patriots  =  8-9  (364-347)

Bill Belichick can still coach a mean defense - but what about the rest

The Patriots defense is still good. Belichick can still scheme his way through games, generally overmatching anything worse than above average offenses. But of course that offense was a mess. I think the rookie Mac Jones is still in there, and I assume here that there will be a change at OC. What is more stunning though is the rapid decline of the Patriots special teams. Their ST units were always great previously, but that drop-off is as concerning in a "is Belichick losing it?" way as the offense. At the end of the day thoiugh, with Judon, Barmore and all the Jones-es, they'll have a good defense.

16.) Green Bay Packers  =  8-9  (370-371)

The late season surge was real - but if Rodgers leaves...

It definitely seemed like Rodgers played his last game yesterday. But I hope not because that Lions game notwithstanding, the Packers offense did get better as the season went on. Rodgers chemistry with Dobbs, and moreso Watson really improved as the season went on. The OL started to stabilize. The Packers are not a bad team, but Rodgers may just be done with it at this point. If he only had the NFC South.

15.) Detroit Lions  =  9-8  (453-427)

Building the Monster is fun - but don't assume energy will take you there

I love everything about this Lions team, mostly because behind all the Dan Campbell bluster, they're a really well coached team, including now on the defensive side as Aaron Glenn's grown into that DC role. But I do have a worry that people often assume momentum, even in an ultimately non-playoff season, will just carry over through an offseason. The Lions can't rest. They have cap space. They have a decision to make around Goff. They have two first round picks. The path is there, but always strive for improvement.

Award Predictions:

MVP

5.) Josh Allen (QB - BUF)

4.) Jalen Hurts (QB - PHI)

3.) Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)

2.) Joe Burrow (QB - CIN)

1.) Patrick Mahomes (QB - KC)

I don't think this is too surprising. Allen had a rough stretch in the middle of the season but with his added rushing value still makes a Top-5 MVP candidate for me. Hurts obviously got hurt (no pun intended) but still had an incredible campaign. I always like to have one non-QB in here, and Jefferson's insane season where he was so key in winning many of the record 11 close wins the Vikings had, is a large part of that etam somehow going 13-4. His catch to keep the Bills game alive (and his whole 10-catch, 193-yard performance) in that game was a legendary play. Burrow improved on his performance from last season, and kept the Bengals churning even when Ja'Marr Chase missed four games. His ability to throw with such insane accuracy is special.

But none of them come close to Mahomes. No Hill, no problem, as the Chiefs were so far and away the best offense in the NFL despite having to integrate a bunch of new weapons (aside from of Kelce). Mahomes had quietly one of the most efficient passing seasons in recent memory - not as good as his 2018 campaign, but far closer than one would think. The Chiefs offense was the one standout offense in a down year for offense overall, and while it was a nice debate for a while, from the second Hurts got hurt, this was Mahomes's MVP.

OPOTY

3.) Patrick Mahomes (QB - PIT)

2.) Tyreek Hill (WR - MIA)

1.) Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)

I won't rehash Mahomes. He basically can't win this because for a QB you need to have historic raw numbers and he didn't. It comes down to these two receivers to me, and I give the edge to Jefferson mainly because his volume numbers and explosive plays were just a bit more. I wouldn't be mad in the slightest if Hill got it over him, but Justin Jefferson was a demon the entire season, finishing off what is the best first three seasons for a WR since Moss (if not Rice himself).

DPOTY

3.) Quinnen Williams (DT - NYJ)
2.) Chris Jones (DT - KC)

1.) Nick Bosa (DE - SF)

Micah Parsons slowing down late in the season leaves him outside looking in. Quinnen Williams was nigh unblockable at his peak and the best player on one of the best defenses in the NFL this year. Chris Jones had his best year of his career, matching career highs in sacks and hits and playing better against hte run than he ever has before. For Bosa, he locked this up a while back. Easily the league leader in sacks and QB hits. Dominant on a per-snap basis. Despite missing two games, this is an easy call.

COTY

3.) Mike Tomlin (PIT)

2.) Kyle Shanahan (SF)

1.) Doug Pederson (JAX)

I'll throw Tomlin in here for someway, somehow getting this team to above .500, even after a 2-6 start and needing to mix and match QBs and deal with injuries. Just a great job. Shanahan vs. Pederson is tough. On the Shanahan side, he had to deal with teh QB injuries, and led that offense under Purdy to a 5-0 record. But the best element of the 49ers is their defense - adn while yes, Shanahan did have to deal with a 2nd and 3rd string QB, the 2nd string is just plain better than the starter and I'm of the opinion of Lance just doesn't get hurt they probably aren't as good. For Pederson, to come in after the steaming pile of shit that was Urban Meyer, and take that team to the playoffs, with five straight wins to end it, was massive. Yes, Pederson was the coach for the 4-8 start as well, but they were better than that record (hence my constant comparison's to Pederson's 2016 Eagles team). Shanahan probably will win, and it will be deserved, but I would give it to Pederson by a hair.

Ranking Next Week's Games (assuming Tua and Lamar play)

6.) Seattle Seahawks (9-8)  @  San Francisco 49ers (13-4)  -  Sat, 4:30 - FOX

There's a reason the NFL waited until the end of the SNF to announce the schedule. I'm sure Packers @ 49ers would not have been the Saturday opener. Anyway, we've seen this matchp and the Seahawks could barely move the ball. Yes there's the whole "it's tough to beat the same team three times" but there's no real evidence beyond anecdotes behind that to begin with.

5.) New York Giants (9-7-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (13-4)  -  Sun, 4:30 - FOX

The NFC Playoffs may get good Divisional Weekend, but not so here. Granted, these two teams played a great one a few weeks back, but that was probably the best case scenario for these two teams. I'm probably being unfair here because the Vikings generally play good games - or once a month they'll get blown the fuck out.

4.) Baltimore Ravens (10-7)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)  -  Sun, 8:15 - NBC

Again, this ranking is assuming Lamar plays, but even if he does, I figure they'll be a bit rusty and the rest of the offense just is not good enough. One aspect to watch out for is the Bengals OL if Alex Cappa is out, adding to already not having Lae'l Collins (tough). That could be a factor that swings things, with the Ravens defense having gone basically three months playing super well.

3.) Dallas Cowboys (12-5)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)  -  Mon, 8:15 - ESPN

I'm already debating whether its important enough to my mental sanity to watch this game. This was basically assured for weeks but the Cowboys have hit a rut, and while the Buccaneers have shown nothing other than an ability to torch a street cornerback from the Panthers, this is just the matchup for the Buccaneers to win in some bullshit way. If not for there being a Manning-cast broadcast, I wouldn't watch it.

2.) Miami Dolphins (9-8)  @  Buffalo Bills (13-3)  -  Sun, 1:00 - CBS

If Tua plays, we get the third matchup of what was two great games. The first the Dolphins 21-19 escape in a heat wave, adn then the Bills 32-29 escape in a snowstorm. If Tua plays, these just play great games. I have a sneaking suspicion he isn't playing which could really put a damper in things, especially with Raheem Mostert almost assuredly out. The history of these two teams is the ranking here.

1.) Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)  -  Sat, 8:15 - NBC

I can't believe they chose this one for the Saturday Night game. Definitely Saturday Night is less of a prime slot than it used to be prior to the playoff expansion (which created SNF and now MNF playoff games), but I'm still surprised they're trusting Herbert vs. Lawrence. And they should. Likely the winner loses next week no matter what, but this is just a fascinating matchup with the two QBs. I'm surprised that the Chargers opened up as a favorite. But either way, Duval will be rocking.

Top-10 Sports Moments of 2022

It didn't hit me for a while, but 2022 was one of my favorite sports years to date. There have been arguably better ones - 2016 was a brilliant one with Manning winning his second Super Bowl, that incredible Villamova v UNC title game, the Cavs beating the 73-9 Warriors. Just like that year, 2022 mixed some of my favorites winning titles and incredible moments and games for teams that I wasn't really invested in one way or the other. Let's get to the quick year in review.

10.) Rafael Nadal wins the 2022 French Open

Nadal's win in Paris was not as routine as most prior wins. First needing five sets to beat Felix Auger Aliassime. Four sets to beat Novak Djokovic. Three hours to take a set and head to a tiebreak against Alexander Zverev before Zverev broke his ankle. But then the skies cleared, the roof was opened, and he turned away Casper Ruud easily in the final and won his 14th. The number is symbolic. When Nadal started his career, 14 was the total everyone was gunning for, the 14 slams that Sampras won. The full target shifted as Federer got his 15th in 2009, but nothing better encapsulates the sheer lunacy of Nadal on clay then him getting to what used to be the old career target at just the French Open. The only reason this isn't higher up is the weird undercurrent of injury flare-ups and the like but for that one beautiful sunny Sunday, it was all perfect.

9.) The Astros sweep the Yankees

Splitting this one up into two as the Astros sweep of the Yankees and all it did in New York, was just incredibly fun. The series itself was closer than a sweep would indicate - in only one game did the Astros really win easily. But man did the difference between the two teams look so stark. The Astros were confident. Chas McCormick and Jeremy Pena hit huge home runs as Aaron Judge got himself mired in a slump. A spunky pitcher named Christian Javier and a few flamethrowing bullpenners 1-hit the Yankees for eight innings in Game 3. Even in Game 4 as the Yankees raced out to an early lead, the Astros calmly reeled them back in. Watchign this series living in New York was a treat to see WFAN repeatedly freak out at how mentally overmatched the Yankees were. It took a long time, but the Astros earned their stripes of being an AL team by quickly becoming, as best said by Pedro himself, the Yankees Daddy.

8.) Georgia wins the National Championship

I'm not a huge college football fan, but like any sensible American, I'm of course anti-Alabama and anti-all other big schools. Of course, Georgia is a big school and as I write this on the doorstep of a 2nd straight title that will quickly enough get people to think of them as we do now of Alabama. If we go back to the start of this year, watching Georgia hold their nerve against a game Alabama team and slowly take control was incredible to watch. Their amazing defense did to Alabama what so few can in just overwhelm them with their inevitable quality. Of course, the final capper of the pick-6 was just mesmerizingly beautiful of a moment for a school that for so long, including the heartbreaking 2017 Title Loss, stood in their shadow.

7.) The Roger Federer Retirement Soiree

Roger Federer's retirement tour was fun for every reason but tennis, as Federer announced it after a prolonged absence. Federer's final gala at the Laver Cup was a perfect send-off that created so many indelible images. None better than that shot of Federer and Nadal seated, bawling their eyes out, with Federer reaching out to put an arm on Nadal's knee. The rivalry those two created and then developed into an incredible friendship was so beautiful to watch play out. Federer meant to much to the game, and the fact that he chose his last moment on court to be with his biggest rival said more about his character than anything. The other Federer moment I'll remember is his surprise appearance at Wimbledon when they did the parade of Champions to celebrate 100 years of Center Court, and the image of him appearing into the stadium, greeted to by far the loudest cheers, was something to behold. It wasn't about the tennis this year, but the moments.

6.) Bill Self gets his 2nd Title

Bill Self has had better Kansas teams before this year's that all lost in the tournament. Hell, he had ones that were quite significantly better. But this year's team was perfect for showcasing Bill Self. No truly high profile recruits, just a mix of great 2-3 star players, an outright star that was developed in the program in Agbaji, and a lot of ballers. They weren't a dominant team, but man did they have dominant stretches. Their 2nd half against Miami to win the Elite Eight (the most common Bill Self tripping point) was brutal and relentless. The entirety of their Final Four win over Villanova was terrifying. And while they played awfully in the first half against North Carolina, the stretch to take the lead midway through the 2nd half was mesmerizing. Of course, North Carolina showed a mental toughness to get back in it, and the back and forth ending was great basketball. In the end, Self got his 2nd ring that had eluded him for so long, and in a way that was earned, not given, in every way.

5.) The World Cup Final

I'm not a Messi fan, but even I couldn't deny just how special that moment was for him, but what it made it all better is that the match was about as bonkers of a soccer game that I've ever seen. The World Cup Final is rarely a great match (even the ones in say 2010 and 2014 that went extra time). This was fairly boring for 70 minutes as Argentina dominated a listless France team, but France was given half a chance and Mbappe exploded to life. The twist and turns. The goal to put Argentina in front, only ended with another Mbappe penalty. The amazing save by Emi Martinez that stopped France at the brink. The fact it was the defending champs vs the old great trying to win for the first time. The storylines were great, the game was better.

4.) The Avalanche vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Final

We so rarely get the two best teams in a Stanley Cup Final. Generally the hockey playoffs are about a cinderella, and while the cinderella almost never wins the final, it ruins these potential incredible matchups. The further out storylines, with the Lightning going for a threepeat (something that hasn't happened in hockey since the 1980's Islanders), and the Avalanche being the on paper best team, very much what the Lightning used to be. While Game 1 was an Avalanche route, the other five games were close, immensely well played, with drama of a couiple OTs, great goaltending performances, and overall the aged, tired Lightning finally relinquishing their grab of the Cup to a more than worthy challenger. Things line up so rarely like this in the NHL, but when it was given the chance, it was beautiful.

3.) The 2022 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round through Super Bowl

The NFL playoffs are always a great time, and even years where the games are generally one side (say 2020 season) have some moments of brilliance. But what we got from the Divisional Round through the Super Bowl was just impossibly amazing. By the numbers, across those seven games, six were decided by exactly 3 points. Of those six, four of them were ended with Field Goals on the last play (the first three divisional round games, and the AFC Championship game). Oh by the way, the seventh game that wasn't decided by three points? It was a walkoff TD in overtime to end arguably the best non-Super Bowl playoff game in decades with the Chiefs beating the Bills 42-36. Football honestly had never been better. The worst of these games was either a 19-16 win by the plucky Bengals in Tennessee, or the Rams holding on for dear life against Tampa. It all ended with a well played Super Bowl ending with Aaron Donald ruining the Bengals chance at a comeback. It was beautiful, football reached a level of brilliance it never had before.

2.) The Astros win the 2022 World Series

Ever since the Astros scandal broke following the 2019 World Series, it both tarnished a bit my memories of 2017, but also made me more itchy than ever for them to win another, a clean one. I know it wasn't going to make people suddenly forgive 2017, but it would make me at peace. And seeing them do it was everything I could have wanted. From Yordan's home run to steal Game 1 against Seattle, to his majestic homer to take the lead in Game 6 against Philadelphia. All of it was great. The rise of Jeremy Pena, the brilliance of Framber Valdez's looping curveball. The incredible, dependable bullpen. The Astros title was also built off as many young players as veterans. The future is bright, but the present, and enjoying that World Series win, was every bit as great as it needed to be.

1.) Rafael Nadal wins the 2022 Australian Open

I woke up the day of the Final pretty sure Nadal was going to lose. He had played well, but lost sets in four different matches. Medvedev was playing great. As Nadal lost the first set 2-6, it seemed obvious he was about to suffer a 5th Australian Open final loss. As Nadal lost his lead in the second and then lost the tiebreak, it seemed all but assured. But then a weird thing happened - Nadal just kept fighting. He broke early in the 3rd and carried the set without too much fuss. Then same repeated in the 4th. And suddenly he was there serving for the match - before losing his nerve. More than this being the slam that would give him the career record, it would also be his 2nd Australian Open. Long awaited, having lost the final in 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2019 - with a break lead in the 5th set in both 2012 and 2017. This was his boogeyman, and he did it the most dramatic way, not even just the coming back from 0-2 down, but after being broken trying to serve out the match, he broke Medvedev right back. That final game he served out brilliantly. Nadal used to drop on his back in tears/joy when winning titles. This time he just dropped his racket, and covered his face with a giant grin. I did the same - all Nadal fans did. This was 17 years of fandom in the making. 10 years in the making in Australia. As I wrote at the time, Djokovic may easily end his career (hell, maybe end 2023) with more titles, but the torch of most slams that went from Emerson to Sampras to Federer to Nadal. And that was worth it all.