Tier I - The "Just Draft Bryce Young Already" Uno
As their slide into a truly memorably bad season is just sad. In reality, by point differential they are just a run of the mill bad team, but at least by point differential, the league is fairly close together. They are just awfully bad, but you know what's a nice bit of fun news: Their biggest hole is at QB, and there is a great one in the draft. I've fallen for QB prospects before, from the good (big time Burrow guy) to the bad (Jake Locker - yeah that was a weird time). Well, I'm all in on Bryce Young.
Tier II - The "A Lost Year" Trio
31.) Los Angeles Rams = 3-9 (201-280)
30.) Chicago Bears = 3-10 (270-333)
29.) Indianapolis Colts = 4-8-1 (209-298)
For the Rams, they are almost certainly going to have the worst year for any defending Champion ever. They already have tied the 2003 Buccaneers in losses, so its inevitable. What I don't want to do is pan their roster building approach. Yes we can quibble it was high risk, high reward, but we can't then quibble when the "reward" side of that hits. Also it seems like they've intentionally been careful with Kupp, Stafford and Donald. This team is far better on paper than record when looking ahead. For the Bears, maybe we can see the same, but the Fields experience has died down a bit. The defense still has so many holes to fill. They have to hope that Eberflus, much like say Robert Saleh, has the defensive impact more show up in Year 2. For the Colts, this is rock bottom, but the funny thing again is through three quarters they were hanging with the Cowboys in Dallas, two weeks after nearly beating the Eagles. But that 4th Quarter just quitting cannot be simply overlooked.
Tier III - The "Sad Sack Spoilers" Quadro
28.) Carolina Panthers = 4-8 (230-266)
27.) Denver Broncos = 3-9 (166-204)
26.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 5-7 (213-277)
25.) Arizona Cardinals = 4-8 (264-321)
As I've reached the point where I have no real use for these teams. Yes, there are little bits of fun hidden in each. The Panthers with their defense and players like Brian Burns, who is just fantastic. For the Broncos, it is seeing how good can their defense be and still win 5-6 games. Its beyond fun to chuck dirt at them for the Wilson trade, and now I've gotten to the point where I'm straight up annoyed that they've wasted this great defensive performance. For the Steelers, the only bit of fun is seeing if they can keep Tomlin's >.500 streak alive. It will require a 4-1 finish (or more funnily, a 3-1-1 finish). It's very unlikely, but let's give credit even if he coaches this disaster up to 7-10. For teh Cardinals, they are probably highest in the list in terms of schaudenfreude in watching them, but it pains me to see Nuke Hopkins, and the last vestiges of the great JJ Watt, play for this mindless franchise.
Tier IV - The "Just Not Good Enough" Duo
24.) Atlanta Falcons = 5-8 (288-312)
23.) Green Bay Packers = 5-8 (263-302)
The league gave the Falcons and Packers everything; every chance. But it just isn't enough is it. For the Falcons, they've gotten a terrible division, with a team just so ready to let it slip, but they can't stop themselves from scoring <20 points against the Commanders and Steelers. It isn't surprising that their smoke-and-mirrors performance had a natural ceiling, but sad all the same. For the Packers, Rodgers's latest nightmare for Bears fans is not enough really to get them back in this in a conference where their two closest wild card contenders just tied themselves. What a disgrace.
Tier V - The "Semi-Live Spoilers" Trio
22.) New Orleans Saints = 4-9 (265-297)
21.) Cleveland Browns = 5-7 (290-300)
21.) Cleveland Browns = 5-7 (290-300)
20.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 4-8 (258-272)
The Saints are not a good team, but they're also one that doesn't help themselves. Dumb plays like Ingram stepping out of bounds right before the 1st down line. Dumb punts and FGs on short yardage when you specifically have Taysom Hill to do that stuff. This was a winnable division. They lost it. For the Browns, what a world we live in when all the takes work here. We can absolutely point otu that Watson played hilariously badly given the team he was playing. But the Browns still won due to three non-offensive TDs. of course that sucks, but then let's remember this is one more step in basically cementing that the Texans will get the #1 pick. For the Jaguars, they finally have a negative point differential! That game to me was more about the Lions, but to continue my aimless comparison of this Jags team to the 2016 Eagles (Pederson's first year there), on the exact same day (Dec 4th) they lost 32-14 to a mediocre Bengals team!
Tier VI - The "Not So Muddled Mess of the League" Quadro
19.) Detroit Lions = 5-7 (315-324)
18.) Las Vegas Raiders = 5-7 (292-296)
18.) Las Vegas Raiders = 5-7 (292-296)
17.) Los Angeles Chargers = 6-6 (272-309)
16.) New England Patriots = 6-6 (249-229)
What came up when doing these rankings is how little I care about any of the bottom 13 teams in my rankings, but starting with #19, and onwards, I'm kind of bought into all of them. They all have something at least approaching playoff potential. For the Lions and Raiders, it will require a truly great finish, but that 7th seed is not unreachable. The Lions offense has stabilized again. The Raiders defense is the unit that has come alive, with more well timed blitzes in recent weeks. For the Chargers, they have to just stop getting behind in every game. Also they need a new playcaller, a new something. At some point, the production has to match the talent. But then again - Holy Shit that talent. And for the Patriots, I guess you can say that they generally keep things semi-interesting against good teams and will blow out any team less than good (that weird Bears game excepted). And I can't believe I'm saying this, but my one wish with them is that they end up with a better record than the Buccaneers.
Tier VII - The "Soft Underbelly of the NFC" Quadro
15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 6-6 (217-219)
14.) New York Giants = 7-4-1 (245-252)
13.) Seattle Seahawks = 7-5 (318-304)
12.) Washington Commanders = 7-5-1 (253-256)
12.) Washington Commanders = 7-5-1 (253-256)
For the Bucs, they escaped another loss that gives them a 1.5 game lead in the division, but in reality they could've lost that game and still slepwalked to the division. All that really matters now is can they beat the Cowboys on Wild Card Weekend, a game that seems completely inevitable at this point. Miss me though with the Brady hosannas when he needs to fire late TD passes to beat 4-9 and 3-9 teams by scoring 17 points. The Giants are just so well coached. They have issues at receiver that are just glaring, and a super high variance (in a bad way this time) OL but continuously put up decent points. The tie is so much better than a loss for them. For the Seahawks, that was a testy win, and yes we should see them more easily beat a bad Rams team, but Geno continues to just be great with Lockett and Metcalf and they have a clear path to a Wild Card given the infighting the NFC East is going to be doing with each other the next five weeks. For the Commanders, tough tie, as it puts them now outside the playoff picture with a bunch more NFC East games as well, but the defensive continues to play well and players like Dotson showing up more and helpful. They should sneak in.
Tier VIII - The "Equally Soft Underbelly of the AFC" Duo
11.) Tennessee Titans = 7-5 (219-240)
10.) New York Jets = 7-5 (252-223)
10.) New York Jets = 7-5 (252-223)
I guess you can argue that with the Vikings, Eagles and 49ers beating their AFC foes yesterday that the NFC flexed its muscles, but it also should be said all those AFC teams went on the road. Anyway, the Titans got smacked around, but Philly just does that right now. What was stunning was to watch the Eagles passing offense go off. For the Jets, that was a close loss on the road, showing the Mike White offense has some staying power right now. The defense continues to play well, and they're likely three wins away from locking up a playoff spot again.
Tier IX - The "Who Knows Anymore" Duo
9.) Baltimore Ravens = 8-4 (285-236)
8.) Miami Dolphins = 8-4 (299-289)
John Harbaugh's exclamation that while Lamar's injury is not season-ending, but is "days or weeks" isn't too reassuring. They have a fairly soft schedule, but what makes that schedule a lot less soft is Huntley and not Lamar. Huge win though to at least win that game. For the Dolphins, they have to come back from their worst offensive game of the season, but when their "worst" game is 400 yards on the road against the league's best defense, it is clear what level they are normally at. Both teams have a huge range of outcomes, though that variance is in particular injury related for the Ravens and Lamar.
Tier X - The "It Wasn't Supposed to be This Way" Duo
7.) San Francisco 49ers = 8-4 (282-190)
6.) Minnesota Vikings = 10-2 (289-279)
6.) Minnesota Vikings = 10-2 (289-279)
As it burns me to rank the Vikings ahead of the 49ers, but the 49ers incredible defense, and great season is all but doomed with the loss of Garoppolo. Major credit for them beating a good Miami team basically without him for the entire game. For the Vikings, yes it's ludicrous how many 1-score wins they have, but at some point, beating the Patriots and Jets and Bills over hte course of a month, means something. Their top players are generally very good. Yes, this is all set-up for them to lose miserably at home in teh playoffs (in a way that could easily resemble the way they lost to Dallas. For the 49ers, Purdy was fine, and for years we've heard that Kyle Shanahan can scheme up anyone. Well, then here is his chance.
Tier XI - The "Elevation Incoming" Duo
5.) Cincinnati Bengals = 8-4 (312-255)
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-3 (333-206)
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-3 (333-206)
The Bengals win over Kansas City can be seen as many things, but to me it was just a sign that they are just a good team. They played within themselves, even made a few mistakes (the 4th down mishap in the 1st half, two long drives that ended in field goals) but still beat the heretofore best team in the AFC. Because they are nearly as good as them. It's strange to think the team that made the Super Bowl with a terrible OL and then spent a lot to invest smartly in upgrading it is now better! For the Cowboys, it's hard to read too much from that game, given they were letting a bad Colts team hang aroud and then did the 2021-22 Cowboys Greatest Hits in micro-speed in the 4th quarter. They are a great team but almost assuredly going to be a Wild Card. A tough life, but fun in a way where you can almost immediatley start prepping for Cowboys @ Buccaneers in Wild Card Weekend. And right now there is absolutely no reason to favor the Buccaneers in that game.
Tier XII - The "Tippy Top of the League" Trio
3.) Kansas City Chiefs = 9-3 (350-270)
2.) Buffalo Bills = 9-3 (333-209)
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 11-1 (338-226)
2.) Buffalo Bills = 9-3 (333-209)
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 11-1 (338-226)
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Buffalo Bills = 13-4
2.) Kansas City Chiefs = 13-4
3.) Cincinnati Bengals = 11-6
4.) Tennessee Titans = 10-7
5.) Miami Dolphins = 12-5
4.) Tennessee Titans = 10-7
5.) Miami Dolphins = 12-5
6.) Baltimore Ravens = 11-6
7.) New York Jets = 10-7
NFC
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 14-3
2.) Minnesota Vikings = 13-4
3.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-6
2.) Minnesota Vikings = 13-4
3.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-6
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9-8
5.) Dallas Cowboys = 13-4
6.) Washington Commanders = 10-6-1
7.) Seattle Seahawks = 10-7
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Schedule
Byes (Last ones!!): Atlanta Falcons (5-7), Chicago Bears (3-10), Green Bay Packers (5-8), Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1), New Orleans Saints (4-9), Washington Commanders (7-5-1)
13.) Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-9) (TNF - Prime)
I call it "Amazon, How you like me now!?" Thursday, as Amazon just gets a beautiful game this late into their first season. Al Michaels has already made some comments on how meh the TNF slate remains - and did you guys at Amazon really think otherwise? You knew what you were signing up for bro. Granted TNF gets Seahawks @ 49ers next week so it isn't all bad.
12.) Houston Texans (1-11-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (9-3) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) New England Patriots (6-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-8) (MNF - ESPN)
10.) Cleveland Browns (5-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) @ Denver Broncos (3-9) (4:05 - CBS)
11.) New England Patriots (6-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-8) (MNF - ESPN)
10.) Cleveland Browns (5-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) @ Denver Broncos (3-9) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Bad vs. Good" Sunday and Monday, as we get a 4-spot of games with a bad team playing a good one. Granted I guess I'm stretching by calling the Patriots "good", but hte Cardinals are just a chore to watch most days and they have the exact type of offense that the Patriots in recent years tears apart limb from limb. Speaking of, man that Cowboys/Texans game may get ugly. I put the Chiefs @ Broncos highest because oddly I feel highest about the potential of an upset there. The Broncos defense remains good and at some point Wilson has to have a decent game, right?
8.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) @ Tennessee Titans (7-5) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Carolina Panthers (4-8) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-5) (4:25 - FOX)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (10-2) @ Detroit Lions (5-7) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (10-2) @ Detroit Lions (5-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Oddly Interesting?? I'm a Weirdo" Thursday as we get three games that I like for various reasons. For hte first, I just have a soft spot for this Jags team - maybe it stems from spending a lot of time over hte last month in Jacksonville. For the Panthers, it will be fun to watch their defense try to stop the Seahawks offense, and they definitely have the personnel to do it. The Vikings are clearly not 10-2 good, and the Lions are arguably not 5-7 bad, and their late season rise has been really fun to watch. I can absolutely see them being able to beat the Vikings.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (8-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Nostalgia Baby!" as we get the first Ravens / Steelers game in the post Ben era, which sadly won't include Lamar in all likelihood. Of coure, because Lamar isn't playing, the game is more appealing as it's likely to be closer. Anyway, call me a person whose love of football crested from 2006-2010 - these Ravens vs. Steelers games will never not be enticing.
4.) Miami Dolphins (8-4) @ Los Angeles Chargers (6-6) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Are we flying too close to the sun?" Sunday, as we get the Dolphins and Chargers FLEXED INTO SNF! Now granted, reportedly NBC wanted Jets @ Bills (again, that is weird too!), but CBS blocked it. In the end, the get an entertaining one. The Chargers are maddening but generally still high scoring and entertaining. The Dolphins are mostly the same and you know will come out strong after being undressed a bit by the 49ers. Should be a fun one, even if Miami fans will outnumber Chargers fans 3:1.
3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-4) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Of course Brady gets the 49ers right after Jimmy G goes out" Sunday, as what was a super appetizing matchup (in a perverse way) is now far less so. Granted, I think the 49ers are more than good enough to keep it close, and the Bucs have lost to worse teams than the Purdy-led 49ers. But it's just amazing that in the worst season in two decades for a Brady team, they're gifted with the worst division and games like this.
2.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) @ New York Giants (7-4-1) (1:00 - FOX)
1.) New York Jets (7-5) @ Buffalo Bills (9-3) (1:00 - CBS)
1.) New York Jets (7-5) @ Buffalo Bills (9-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "New York, New York" as we get the most fun version of two New York rivalries. First the best Eagles/Giants game in bascially a decade (since maybe the DeSean punt return TD game?). The Eagles have to be favored, but the Giants have an ability to play these games close - see their Thanksgiving loss in Dallas. For the Jets and Bills, there's a reason why CBS protected this one. Granted, there is a chance the Bills blow them out, partially because they're better than the Jets, and partially to avenge their loss a few weeks back. But still, whether it's NY State or NYC, New York is in prime position this week.
