NFL 2022: Week 16 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the AFC

Tier A-I - The "Just Three More Weeks" Uno

16.) Houston Texans  =  1-12-1  (235-344)

The Texans are really perfecting the "play close so our fans have at least something to watch, but still lose". They aren't guaranteed the #1 pick, but are pretty close to it at this point. Also I have no idea what they were trying to do with the whole two quarterbacks thing. It's all cute anyway since this will be Bryce Young's team come next September.

Tier A-II - The "Maybe try a young QB for once" Duo

15.) Indianapolis Colts  =  4-9-1  (245-337)

14.) Denver Broncos  =  4-10  (218-253)

The Colts are finding new ways to be embarrassing but you can still say that they've been much better with Saturday, beating the Raiders (who aside from the Colts gave have played fairly well recently), nearly beating the Eagles, playing the Cowboys close for three quarters, and then taking a 33-0 lead on the Vikings. Yes, that is an extremely rose-colored-glasses way of looking at things. For the Broncos, they just aren't good, though and with Wilson now out a bit it truly is one of the msot barren, lost seasons we've ever seen. The Broncos over/under before the season was 10.5, and they'll be lucky to get to half of that.

Tier A-III - The "Setting up for 2023" Trio

13.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  6-8  (251-309)
12.) Cleveland Browns  =  6-8  (313-326)

11.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-8  (338-337)

It's almost impossible for any of these teams to jump all four of the ones above to get a playoff spot, so we can talk about them a bit more nakedly. The Steelers approaching .500 again is just a true testament to how good Tomlin is, but I just wonder how much more Tomlin would want to do this with a team with a protracted rebuild. He would be a hot candidate anywhere. The Browns got their first win with Deshaun, but have yet to put up 20 points of offense with him. It's probably anyway about seeing where he could be come 2023. Finally with the Raiders, that bizarre, hilarious win was fun (and great karmic retribution for The Tuck Rule, in some ways). The only real intrigue for me is that if McDaniels wants to sign up for another year with Carr. It's clear at this point McDaniels has done enough to warrant a second season, but his relationship and opinion of Carr is a lot less clear.

Tier A-IV - The "Four Teams Enter, One Team Wins (Probably)" Quadro

10.) Tennessee Titans  =  7-7  (255-293)
9.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  8-6  (312-340)
8.) New England Patriots  =  7-7  (300-269)

7.) New York Jets  =  7-7  (281-263)

It seems pretty inevitable that the Titans and Jags will play in Week 18 for the division title. Their season was built on too much smoke and mirrors and it all broke down at the same time. I guess they could still sneak through, much like the potential winner of the NFC South as well, but what's really hurt them is the pass rush falling off in recent weeks. The Chargers got the win over the Titans, but their inability to put that game out of reach said more about their coaching issues on offense more than anything else. For the Pats, that loss coupled with a tough schedule really hurts. BB has to questioned about his choices on the offensive coaching staff. Mac Jones going 13-31 against arguably the worst pass defense in the league is a harrowing sign. For the Jets, tough, close loss, a game that they arguably would've won had Mike White been starting. The defense is clearly good enough even without Quinnen Williams playing. What Saleh has done in two years is magic.

Tier A-V - The "My 2016 Eagles Thing is really coming true" Uno

6.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  6-8  (334-328)

This whole year I've talked about comparisons to the 2016 Eagles (Pederson's first year), but in reality this could end up better. The Jags have a clear path at the division. Trevor Lawrence is playing like a future star, even with middling talent at the skill positions. The defense is starting to play more high risk which has gotten some turnvoers. They aren't a good team, but by word they are the best team in the AFC South. With Lawrence playing like this, that might be true for a while.

Tier A-VI - The "Holding On for Dear Life" Duo

5.) Baltimore Ravens  =  9-5  (304-263)
4.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-6  (345-344)

The Ravens truly need Lamar back. It is clear how dependent they are on his brilliance with the lack of receiving talent. Their defensive improvement has definitely sustained though, adn they are effectively one win away from the playoffs with Lamar probably coming back by at minimum Week 17. For the Dolphins, three straight losses have definitely soured things. They don't have the toughest schedule left needing probably two wins to be safe. The offense showed a lot against Buffalo, dominating parts of that game and if they can improve protection at all for Tua they should be fine.

Tier A-VII - The "If One of us 3 aren't in the Super Bowl, it's March Madness" Trio

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-3  (414-322)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  10-4  (369-288)
1.) Buffalo Bills  =  11-3  (385-250)

These three have really separated themselves. The only questions are the Chiefs tendency to play down to competition, and the Bills injuries like Von Miller maybe making their defense a little worse than it needs to be. If anything, the Bengals might be the most "complete" team of the lot right now. The Chiefs offense is still excellent, but points have trailed their performance for a bit now which is a problem that can rear itself. For the Bengals, there's a lot to like right now, but I do worry if they're over-leaning on Joe Mixon as they had a good routine with Perrine. For the Bills, the offense is locked in but I do worry about their defense a bit. The pass rush has generally still stayed really good, but against better teams you do worry. McDermott is a creative blitzer when needed but it does expose them a bit, as the Dolphins were able to take advantage of a few times.

Ranking the NFC

Tier N-I - The "Thinking about 2023" Trio

16.) Chicago Bears  =  3-11  (290-358)

15.) Los Angeles Rams  =  4-10  (230-320)

14.) Arizona Cardinals  =  4-10  (292-372)

The Bears are doing a good Texans impression in losing close to good teams to maintain interest. For Fields's sake I hope he can leave this season unscathed in terms of injuries adn the Bears can invest in better weapons for him. What more to say about the Rams. They are just awful, but injuries have ravaged them, to the point that when pointing to the "stars & scrubs" almost misses the point. You can't predict for all of your good players bar Ramsey to get hurt for long stretches. Even if you have great depth you can't overcome that. The Cardinals are a mess, though at least they're ripping the band-aid. Their fall from a fairly "even good by the numbers" 9-2 team last year to this, with a QB with an ACL tear, a roster devoid of young talent, a GM basically on the outs and a coach who will likely join the GM soon, is stark to say the least. It could be an attractive job to play with Kyler, but there are rough times ahead for the Cardinals.

Tier N-II - The "You Guys really are gonna let Tom get away with this?" Trio

13.) Atlanta Falcons  =  5-9  (306-333)

12.) New Orleans Saints  =  5-9  (286-315)
11.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-9  (276-314)

Man the NFC South is truly just gifting a bad Bucs team a division title. Ironically, these three all have better point differentials than the Bucs but you can't see any of them pulling it off (it would take the Cardinals shocking Tampa on Sunday). The Falcons are basically waving the white flag putting in what seems like a way too green Desmond Ridder in there. In the Falcons defense, at 5-8 you shouldn't be "in the mix." For teh Saints, they're still the best of these three on paper and if they just didn't make any one of like ten mistakes two weeks back in New Orleans, they would have the division lead right now. For the Panthers, this is all nice and touching, but games like losing at home to Pittsburgh will utltimately do them in, though technically they do have the division in their control given they can sweep the Bucs and make up the game difference.

Tier N-IV - The "Kind of in it?" Uno

10.) Green Bay Packers  =  6-8  (287-314)

They're in it, and it isn't inconceivable for make the playoffs. It all really comes down to next Sunday's game against Miami. If they can beat them, they have two winnable games at home, first up against a Vikings team that would be playing for really just the difference between #2 and #3 seeds, and the Lions at home. That may be a win and your in game. The offense is more or less fine now with Watson healthy and performing well. Rodgers is settled down nicely. The defense is surprisingly a mess, but it kind of is in sight.

Tier N-IV - The "Depressing potential playoff teams" Duo

9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  6-8  (247-288)

8.) Seattle Seahawks  =  7-7  (355-355)

The Bucs are just bad. It was hilarious that a lot of people (most notably, Tony Romo) were saying "You can't forget about the Bucs going up 17-0". You know what? You can. Good for the Bucs, they scored nearly a season high with their 23 points, but needed garbage time TD to get there. Anyway, the Seahawks seem to have hit the end of their road. Their rush defense is just too porous adn teams have learned to just commit to the run. The offense is still good - one bad performance against the league's best defense doesn't change that, but this loss puts them in precarious position in terms of the wild card, but a potential 8-9 type season is still a massive success.

Tier N-V - The "Probably safe, and one Hopeful" Trio

7.) Washington Commanders  =  7-6-1  (265-276)

6.) New York Giants  =  8-5-1  (287-312)
5.) Detroit Lions  =  7-7  (369-364)

The Commanders are in a tough spot with that loss, which absolutely was aided by some brutal refereeing. I think what these last few games have shown is that they need something different at QB. Heinecke is better than Wentz, but he's far from good in an offense that is still fairly good aside from that position. For teh Giants, big win and what was really promising was their offensive fluidity for much of it. Saquon was graet, but Jones looked confident and finally a bit at peace with his random set of receivers. For the Lions, it is amazing what they have become in recent weeks. Goff is playing every bit as good as he did in 2018 with the Rams. The defense has reached a level of competence too that gives them a chance in basically every game.

Tier N-VI - The "Just Who Effing Knows" Uno

4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  11-3  (351-349)

I have no idea at this point what to say about this team. Obviously, it's never a good thing to be down 0-33 in the first place, but so much of that was driven by special taems and fumble luck and non-repeatable stuff. If anything, this was the best performance by the Vikings defense in a long, long time. The offense played well once it settled. This is a good team, but that record is so flattering.

Tier N-VII - The "Lesser NFC Prime Contenders" Duo

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  10-4  (394-269)

2.) San Francisco 49ers  =  10-4  (338-210)

The Cowboys have now won a game they almost lost, and lost a game they should've won, so they're basically back where they should be. They're getting probably an out with Hurts likely missing the Eagles game but are more or less locked into the 5 seed. If I were them, I would start scouting for the Buccaneers now. The biggest risk I see is Prescott turning it over - down to down they're way better than the Bucs. So re the 49ers, who continue to prove that the offense is no worse, if not just outright better, with Purdy at the helm. It may not matter with the level the defense is playing and for now a healthy McCaffrey and Kittle. If Deebo comes back, they really do have a shot here.

Tier N-VIII - The "Maybe quietest potential 1/2-loss team ever" Uno

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  13-1  (411-268)

They're the best team in the league, and have the great credit of winning all the close games (their one loss ironically wasn't all that close). Now they have to survive without Hurts but unlike 2017 (granted, it ended in a Super Bowl win) he should be back. Everything is set up for them. They've done well to capitalize on an easy schedule, and set themselves up with needing one win over three games to lock in the top seed. It all should work. Rust, and the coin flip that has come up their way four or so times this year not working for them, is the only real risk they have until an NFC Title Game.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Buffalo Bills  =  14-3
2.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  14-3
3.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  12-5

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  8-9

5.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-6

6.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  10-7
7.) Miami Dolphins  =  10-7

NFC

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  15-2
2.) San Francisco 49ers  =  13-4

3.) Minnesota Vikings  =  13-4

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  8-9
5.) Dallas Cowboys  =  12-5

6.) New York Giants  =  10-6-1
7.) Detroit Lions  =  10-7

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Denver Broncos (4-10)  @  Los Angeles Rams (4-10)  (Christmas - CBS)

15.) New Orleans Saints (5-9)  @  Cleveland Brown (6-8)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8)  (8:15 - NFLN)

I call it "Bad Team vs. Bad Team" Saturday and Sunday, as we get three games between non-playoff teams (technically the Raiders, Steelers and Browns are alive, but not really - same with teh Siants I guess, but I'm boycotting the NFC South). None of these games have much interest other than just to point and laugh that on Christmas we'll get a 4-10 Broncos team without Russell Wilson playing a 4-10 Rams team without Matthew Stafford and there's a good chance it will outdraw the NBA game(s) at the time.

13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-10)  (Christmas - NBC)

I call it "I told you I'm boycotting the NFC South" as yeah, I'm boycotting it. Other than I'll say given Tom Brady is involved this crap game will absolutely get better ratings than the NBA at the time.

12.) Buffalo Bills (11-3)  @  Chicago Bears (3-11)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Los Angeles Charges (8-6)  @  Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)  (MNF - ESPN)

10.) Atlanta Falcons (5-9)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-5)  (1:00 - FOX) 

9.) Houston Texans (1-12-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (7-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad Team vs. Good Team" Saturday and Monday, as we get four games where playoff bound (or hopeful, in Tenessee's and LAs case) teams try to avoid getting spoiled. Ranked in no particular order really. I do fund it funny we get one last Colts primetime game. Man Matt Ryan on the Colts had a lot of us fooled - me included.

8.) Washington Commanders (7-6-1)  @  San Francisco 49ers (10-4)  (4:05 - CBS)
7.) Detroit Lions (7-7)  @  Carolina Panthers (5-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

6.) Green Bay Packers (6-8)  @  Miami Dolphins (8-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Make or Break Saturday" as we get three games with road teams that need wins to keep their playoff hopes survive. Technically the Coimmanders, and to some degree the Lions, are OK with losses - mostly given the other may lose also. For the Lions and Panthers, it really kind of is an elimination game. For the Packers, this is really their playoff eliminator, with two winnable home games following.

5.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-4)  @  New England Patriots (7-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "We're on to Cincinnati" Sunday, as the Bengals can get their long wanted revenge on teh Patriots for the On to Cincinnati business from eight years back. That was followed by two other blowouts in the series. For the Bengals, basically the entire roster has turned over since 2019, but they can still make a statement for the franchise - basically knock New England out of the playoffs and set their longest win streak in modern times.

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (6-8)  @  New York Jets (7-7)  (TNF - Prime)

I call it "Oddly, Al gets a free win" Thursday, as we get a strangely good Thursday Night matchup, one that I'm sure Al Michaels hated from the start of season. The Jags don't technically need this game, so if anything this migth be bigger for the Jets. Of course, the reason the Jags don't is they probbaly can count on the Titans dropping a game. 

3.) Seattle Seahawks (7-7)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

2.) New York Giants (8-5-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (11-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Spoiler Alert" Saturday, as we get two games where playoff wild card hopefuls need wins and their superior opponents truly don't. I ranked them in order of likelihood of upset, but the Seahawks are basically out with a loss. If anything, the Bengals might be the big winner if the Seahawks can pull the upset - putting their #1 seed in their control (spoiler alert - the #1 game next week is definitely Bengals @ Bills). 

1.) Philadelphia Eagles (13-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (10-4)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Man, this game is good but looked better before" Saturday, as the Cowboys and Eagles don't really have all that much to play for, especially in light of the Eagles losing Hurts. Assuming the Eagles win one of their last three games, this game is almost meaningless - the Eagles will get the #1 seed and the Cowboys the #5. I just feel bad dropping it when a couple weeks back we were salivating over this.