Tier I - The "That's the Best Type of Loss" Uno
The Texans are in no real jeopardy of losing the #1 pick at this point. They've got it fully locked down. But even then, why take a chance. The Texans though for once gave their fans a nice little game, came remarkably close to beating a far better team. I don't know if this solves anything other than just proves that benching Davis Mills was one of the most meaningless QB decisions ever. Anyway, the real fun begins with if they'll fire a coach again, and if they pick Bryce Young and who gets to coach him up/
Tier II - The "Just Playing out the String" Quadro
31.) Chicago Bears = 3-10 (270-333)
30.) Los Angeles Rams = 4-9 (218-296)
29.) Denver Broncos = 3-10 (194-238)
28.) Indianapolis Colts = 4-8-1 (209-298)
There's little pockets of interest for all of these teams, from the Bears with Fields to see if they can continue to grow on some of the momentum they were having before his injury hit, to the Rams to seeing if the Mayfield experience can subsist even longer. The Broncos finally got some sign of life from Russell Wilson, so even though this is a completely lost season, it will be worth watching if it can continue past the one week and maybe give the Broncos something to build on for into next season. For the Colts, I guess it is just seeing if Saturday can have any staying power as head coach (let's all hope the answer is no to that one)
Tier III - The "Sad, Miserable" Quadro
27.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 5-8 (227-293)
26.) XXXXXXXXXX
25.) Cleveland Browns = 5-8 (300-323)
24.) Las Vegas Raiders = 5-8 (308-313)
I'll give the Steelers this, they are good enough to play bad teams (or good teams down to a backup, if not 3rd string QB) close. Pickett to Pickens shows some signs of life every week. XXXXXXXXXX. The Browns already are looking ahead to next year when they get Watson for the entire season. They have to hope that Watson with a little playing time and a full offseason looks better than he does so far, with a total of 1 offensive TD over two games. Of course, outside of Browns fans, no one in the world wants to see that improvement. The Raiders ridiculous loss to the Rams starting a QB who just got there, probably slams the door shut on any potential wild card chance they may have thought they had.
Tier IV - The "NFC South" Quadro (yes, this is slightly gimmicky)
23.) New Orleans Saints = 4-9 (265-297)
22.) Atlanta Falcons = 5-8 (288-312)
21.) Carolina Panthers = 5-8 (260-290)
20.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 6-7 (224-254)
Yes, this is a bit gimmicky. The worst of these four probably belongs in the group above, and hte best in the group below, but to be real, I think its deserved to clump these teams, and if not for say Mark Ingram stupidly going out of bounds a yard short of the sticks, all four teams would be 5-8. The Saints are just a coaching mess - interesting to hear some reports that it might be a Payton reunion? The Falcons may live to regret the haste move to change to Desmond Ritter, as they have some semblance of a chance still. Both they and the Panthers get the Bucs one more time. For the Panthers, every week it becomes a bit more true that they're gamble to not burn it down, and hold onto all their non-CMC best players, is fully paying off. Finally for the Bucs, it turns out that two drives against a bad coached team who is choking, to win a game 17-16 against said same bad team that is now 4-9, does not suddenly mean everything is fixed. They're just a bad team right now.
Tier V - The "Live Spoilers" Duo
19.) Green Bay Packers = 5-8 (263-302)
18.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 5-8 (294-294)
18.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 5-8 (294-294)
I guess the Jags have an outside shot of winning the division, especially with a Week 18 matchup against Tennessee, but I think the Jags are too high variance to be comfortable there. The Packers offense has been good for about a month now when Rodgers is in there, and enough so to the point the rumblings of Love wanting a trade have started. For the Jags, they're back at an even point differential, and the great prophecy of mine of them being the 2016 Eagles, is looking as true as ever. Lawrence has really settled down over the past five weeks, and while the defense needs a lot of improvement, if Lawrence continues to improve and be a true starting QB, it enables the Jags to invest most of their draft capital on the defensive side.
Tier VI - The "Soft Middle" Quinto
17.) Los Angeles Chargers = 7-6 (295-326)
16.) New York Giants = 7-5-1 (267-300)
15.) Tennessee Titans = 7-6 (241-276)
14.) Detroit Lions = 6-7 (349-347)
13.) Seattle Seahawks = 7-6 (342-334)
16.) New York Giants = 7-5-1 (267-300)
15.) Tennessee Titans = 7-6 (241-276)
14.) Detroit Lions = 6-7 (349-347)
13.) Seattle Seahawks = 7-6 (342-334)
The Chargers got a big win yesterday, but their fundamentals, from their bad point differential, and porous defense (yesterday excluded) still have me a bit worried about their staying power. Herbert quieted a bunch of skeptics with his play, but the offense is still just not dynamic enough. For the Giants, they have a huge game this week to right the ship, but the lack of weapons for Jones is increasingly more nad more rearing itself as a problem they can't overcome. For the Titans, its basically the same as the Giants, but in their case they have enough of a cushion to very likely hold onto the division anyway. Tannehill's interceptions are becoming a real problem. For the Lions, they have a pretty clear path to the playoffs, but the defense has to play better. Minnesota self-inflicted wounds handed that game to Detroit. They'll need a couple more like that. Jameson Williams being back was a huge boost. For the Seahawks, there's a bit of a sense that the clock is striking midnight, but even through the loss and the interceptions, Geno is still playing really well. Carroll just has to get that team playing the run better, as all their recent losses share that underlying theme of them getting overwhelmed on the ground.
Tier VII - The "Great AFC East Race" Trio
12.) XXXXXX
11.) New York Jets = 7-6 (264-243)
10.) Miami Dolphins = 8-5 (316-312)
XXXXXXXX. The Jets defense is truly excellent, but are there enough easy games for the Mike White (if not Joe Flacco) offense to score enough to clinb back into the playoffs? Even if ultimately they find themselves outside the playoffs, this has been a great year to establish Saleh's place as a trusted head coach for them. For the Dolphins, we've all lauded priase of Mike McDaniel, and for good reason, but now he gets his first real test. His offense looked fallow two straight weeks, including against a bad Chargers defense. Can he pivot back? Can Tua settle down if things are going perfectly per the script? These challenges always come to you eventually in the NFL.
Tier VIII - The "Quasi-Contenders" Trio
9) Washington Commanders = 7-5-1 (253-256)
8.) Minnesota Vikings = 10-3 (312-313)
8.) Minnesota Vikings = 10-3 (312-313)
7.) Baltimore Ravens = 9-4 (301-250)
The Commanders defense surging, and skill position players all healthy, and a relatively light schedule gives me a lot of confidence in them. Win this week hosting the Giants and they're basically locked into the playoffs. For the Vikings, oddly I leave that game feeling ok about them. Their offense was as good as ever. Justin Jefferson is an absurdity as always. The OL looked better. That defense is way too dependent on turnovers though. For the Ravens, they're basically locked into a playoff spot so they really shouldn't rush Lamar. That said, if they're now down to the 3rd string guy, retaining the division could be a real challenge. They have to do 1-game better than Cincinnati ahead of their Week 18 game in the Jungle. Without Huntley, and truly even with him, that could be a problem. The Ravens are very fortunate that their schedule is so soft.
Tier IX - The "I Still have Some Question" Trio
6.) San Francisco 49ers = 9-4 (317-197)
5.) Cincinnati Bengals = 9-4 (335-265)
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 10-3 (360-229)
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 10-3 (360-229)
The 49ers are just a machine right now, and Purdy gives them an element of verticality that they didn't have with Jimmy. Losing Deebo for a bit will hurt, but that's also part of the reason you got McCaffrey, to still function if there were further injuries. For the Bengals, the defense has shorn up well in recent weeks, and while there's a revolving door at wideout in terms of health, Burrow has reached just a stable level, and their system with going all-in on shotgun has given them a very high floor to subside while Higgins and Boyd heal themselves up. For the Cowboys, I'm always ok giving a team a bit of a pass when in the long stretch of a season they play an unexpectedly poor game. In their case, they still won. The division is still probably not going to happen, but the Cowboys also face a bit of a challenge right now with the OL injuries and losing Steele for the season.
Tier X - The "I Will Not Be Taking Any Questions" Trio
3.) Kansas City Chiefs = 10-3 (384-298)
2.) Buffalo Bills = 10-3 (353-221)
2.) Buffalo Bills = 10-3 (353-221)
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 12-1 (386-248)
For the Chiefs and Bills, these weren't the cleanest of games. The Chiefs looked amazing in going up 27-0, but far less so when they let the dormant Broncos offense wake up. Some of this is just taking the foot off the gas, more so on defense. This should scare the Chiefs a bit as it was a common occurrence say in 2020, when they went 14-2 but had a poor point differential for that gaudy a record. The Bills offense is in a low period, and Allen needs to get more from Gabriel, McKenzie and Knox. Especially against teams that, like the Jets, can single up a good corner to slow Diggs. The defense however has done tremendously well building a pass rush even without Von. For the Eagles, there's really no real questions right now except posing hypothetical scenarios, your "well, how's it going to look when they're down 14-0 against a good team" types of discourse. They survived their own low period a couple weeks back and are back to hammering teams, with an offense that is getting more impressive each week.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Buffalo Bills = 14-3
2.) Kansas City Chiefs = 14-3
3.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-5
4.) Tennessee Titans = 9-8
5.) Baltimore Ravens = 11-6
6.) Miami Dolphins = 11-6
6.) Miami Dolphins = 11-6
7.) New York Jets = 10-7
NFC
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 15-2
2.) San Francisco 49ers = 12-5
3.) Minnesota Vikings = 12-5
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9-8
5.) Dallas Cowboys = 13-4
6.) Washington Commanders = 10-6-1
7.) Detroit Lions = 9-8
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Arizona Cardinals (X-X) @ Denver Broncos (3-10) (4:05 - FOX)
15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) @ Carolina Panthers (5-8) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Los Angeles Rams (3-10) @ Green Bay Packers (5-8) (MNF - ESPN)
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) @ Chicago Bears (3-10) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) @ Houston Texans (1-11-1) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) @ Houston Texans (1-11-1) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Baltimore Ravens (9-4) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8) (Sat, 4:30 - NFLN)
10.) Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-3) (Sat, 1:00 - NFLN)
9.) New England Patriots (X-X) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-8) (4:05 - FOX)
9.) New England Patriots (X-X) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-8) (4:05 - FOX)
8.) Atlanta Falcons (5-8) @ New Orleans Saints (4-9) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) (4:25 - CBS)
6.) Dallas Cowboys (10-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (6-7) (1:00 - FOX)
5.) San Francisco 49ers (9-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-6) (TNF - Prime)
4.) Tennessee Titans (7-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-6) (4:25 - CBS)
3.) Detroit Lions (6-7) @ New York Jets (7-6) (1:00 - CBS)
2.) Miami Dolphins (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (10-3) (Sat, 8:15 - NFLN)
1.) New York Giants (7-5-1) @ Washington Commanders (7-5-1) (SNF - NBC)
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) (4:25 - CBS)
6.) Dallas Cowboys (10-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (6-7) (1:00 - FOX)
5.) San Francisco 49ers (9-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-6) (TNF - Prime)
4.) Tennessee Titans (7-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-6) (4:25 - CBS)
3.) Detroit Lions (6-7) @ New York Jets (7-6) (1:00 - CBS)
2.) Miami Dolphins (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (10-3) (Sat, 8:15 - NFLN)
1.) New York Giants (7-5-1) @ Washington Commanders (7-5-1) (SNF - NBC)
