NFL 2022: Week 13 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Bryce Young Combatant" Uno

32.) Houston Texans  =  1-9-1  (174-260)

The Texans are now solidly the worst team in the NFL. I do love the symmetry of the Texans having the #1 overall pick in their inaugaral draft of course, but then getting it again in almost equal 10-year increments, doing it again after 2013 and now very likely in 2022. They need a lot more than a QB, but at least the one big win for them this time vs. 2013, and I guess looking back 2002, is there is a blue-chip QB prospect awaiting them at #1.

Tier II - The "You Laugh to Not Cry" Duo

31.) Los Angeles Rams  =  3-8  (178-253)
30.) Denver Broncos  =  3-8  (157-194)

Look, at the end of the day the Rams got a Super Bowl out of all their 1st round pick wheeling and dealing, so money well spent you would say. But it is funny how right now the teams that would have the 3rd and 4th picks in the draft would be trading them away for their currently injured (Stafford) or just plain bad (Wilson) QBs. At some point, the Wilson thing has to hit a breaking point. He's been outright bad this season and this is year one of a multi-year deal. They're wasting one of the best defenses in the league as well.

Tier III - The "Potential Spoilers...." Quinto

29.) Chicago Bears  =  3-9  (251-305)

28.) Indianapolis Colts  =  4-7-1  (190-244)
27.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  4-7  (194-261)

26.) New Orleans Saints  =  4-8  (249-280)

25.) Green Bay Packers  =  4-8  (235-283)

The Bears run of fun seems to be over. Maybe it returns if and when Justin Fields gets back, but with Peterman, they're just a useless, terrible defensive team with nothing really going for them. The Colts defense is still trying, but that offense is back to being largely unwatchable. It is shocking how bad the OL has gotten. For the Steelers, they're talent deficient but I do like using Pickens more in the passing game, and even Harris is starting to be better used. I still see clear ceiling with Pickett, but there is something there. The Saints offense with Dalton is just so bad. I truly don't understand why they are resisting going back to Winston, who in his brief run did way better than what Dalton has done. The defense has remained average at worst but with that offense there isn't anything better they can do. The Packers ranking here is built off of the understanding Rodgers is either hampered or just out. While Love was interesting for a couple drives, that defense coupled with an erratic Love, can't be counted on to do much.

Tier IV - The "Way More Live Spoilers" Trio

24.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-8  (230-266)
23.) Arizona Cardinals  =  4-8  (264-321)
22.) Cleveland Browns  =  4-7  (263-286)

The Panthers took a risk in not fully trading their good players, deciding to keep Burns and Moore and the rest, and its paid off handsomely. Their musical chairs at QB effectively means they have no real in-house long term option, but there's a lot to like there. For the Cardinals, on top-end talent alone they'll remain competitive most weeks, but that was a tough loss. Their team played well for 58 minutes but the secondary just disappeared on that last drive. The Browns get a certain someone back, and probably a couple weeks too late, with them being three games back of both the division or a Wild Card spot.

Tier V - The "Livest of Live Spoilers" Trio

21.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  4-7  (265-276)
20.) Detroit Lions  =  4-7  (275-310)

19.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  4-7  (244-232)

I may like to hate on McDaniels, but the offense has finally started playing well. Now granted they've shown very little week to week consistency so far this season, but that side of the ball keeps them in games with an ability to run clock as well. The Lions are similar to the Raiders, able to hide an even worse defense fairly well through their offensive ability. The Jaguars still ahve a positive point differential. All of their wins seem like "turning points" for Trevor Lawrence, but his performance on the TD drive to win the game was stellar. Good ability to feel the pocket, great accuracy, everything you want to see from Lawrence. The 2016 Eagles comparisons are working perfectly so far with Pederson's new team.

Tier VI - The "Midpoint of Life" Duo

18.) Atlanta Falcons  =  5-7  (272-293)
17.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  6-5  (252-282)

So what to make of these two. They are similar to me while also being somewhat opposites, with Atlanta's manic run game and the Chargers passing game, neither as good as you would think, but good enough to always be competitive. The Chargers are miles behind in the division, but the Falcons at least have a decent shot of hanging around the Bucs, especially with a head to head in Atlanta still to play. At the end of the day, if any two teams are going to end up around .500, to me it would be these two.

Tier VII - The "Let's Not Talk About It" Duo

16.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  5-6  (200-203)

15.) New England Patriots  =  6-5  (239-202)

In year three of the great divorce, we're finally seeing that Belichick can do some things without Tommy. Granted, they're coming off of a loss, but the Patriots are just straight up better than the Bucs so far this year. Their defense is so capable of ruining anything other than good offenses, reducing them to nothing. But that offense is just not good enough to be competitive AFC-wide. Of course, those last two sentences could easily be written about Tampa as well. Both have fairly soft schedules here on out, but I guess the biggest separator is you can trust Belichick with a soft schedule - you can't trust a Bucs team that has lost to the Steelers, Panthers, Packers and Browns to do too much.

Tier VIII - The "Upper Middle Cass" Quinto

14.) Washington Commanders  =  7-5  (233-236)

13.) New York Giants  =  7-4  (225-232)
12.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-5  (291-281)

11.) Tennessee Titans  =  7-4  (209-205)

10.) New York Jets  =  7-4  (230-196)

It took a while to get here, but we have a solid set of above average teams that are all solidly over .500. Granted, the Commanders and Giants have negative point differentials, but have largely won the games they should win. The Commanders defense is set to improve with Chase Young expectyed back in a week or two. For the Giants, they're finally getting some week to week consistency with their skill position players. The Seahawks defense regressed mightily in that game but the offense is far past the point of needing to prove that it is "real". The Titans lost a close game but remain one of the league's best coached teams able to take every edge possible and squeeze out wins. The Jets are a 11-win type team even if they get averaging QBing from Mike White. If they can anything close to what he showed this week, they could be even better.

Tier IX - The "What Are They?" Uno

9.) Minnesota Vikings  =  9-2  (262-257)

The '+5' point differential is going to be a sticking point, largely driven by the 37 point loss to Dallas. The Vikings are a team with a lot of upside but they're a team that you can generally figure out if they're mentally engaged in a game within two drives or so. Against the Patriots, they had a perfect first drive and it was clear at least on offense they were on the mark. The Jefferson, Thielen, Cook, combination will win them 11-12 games - it is just the fear of a Cowboys type performance lurking around every corner.

Tier X - The "Great AFC North Race" Duo

8.) Baltimore Ravens  =  7-4  (275-227)
7.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  7-4  (285-231)

These two have kind of meandered back towards each other. The Bengals win streak, especially without Chase who should be back soon, is very impressive. For the Bengals, its a sudden view that they might just be better than the Ravens, with their OL having held up extremely well over the past four games. For the Ravens, offensively they have to start integrating DeSean Jackson more, and the defense has to ensure that the performance against the Jags was a 1-week blip on what has otherwise been a very upward trajectory in recent weeks. They are still getting all their pieces back, and rosterwise they are strong. The consistency of their pressure has to improve.

Tier XI - The "Lower Upper Class" Trio

6.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-3  (282-256)

5.) San Francisco 49ers  =  7-4  (249-173)
4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  8-3  (279-187)

People will criticize the lack of great teams or whatever this year, but I feel really good about these top six teams. The Dolphins got a bit of a taste of what really putting teams away will be, but the offense continues to hum. A few pass protection problems in that Texans game though that could be lurking. The 49ers defense is in my mind the league's best (or maybe the team at #4), and they just have such talent at each level. This recipe is a better version of the team that nearly made the Super Bowl last year. For the Cowboys, they won a game playing their 'B-' game against the Giants, with talent that just wins out. The defensive scheme is too tough at this point. Prescott's interceptions are a bit worrying I guess, but that's picking nits a bit.

Tier XII - The "Uppest of Classes" Trio

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  9-2  (326-243)
2.) Buffalo Bills  =  8-3  (309-199)

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  10-1  (303-216)

The Chiefs should be forgiven for sleepwalking through that win against the Rams backup. It is funny to watch this team completely mail in a game they wouild win by 16 and easily could have won by more. Their defense is really humming right now. The Bills escaped a game Lions team. I do worry about their pass ruhs without Von Miller for the next few games. While they ahve incredible depth at the DL, Miller was their closer that would give them more ability to not give up late TDs to make games closer. The Eagles won that wild one. It is worrying how turnover reliant they are defense, but that offense is just incredible right now. Their OL has been just so dominant.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  14-3
2.) Buffalo Bills  =  13-4

3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  12-5

4.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-7
5.) Miami Dolphins  =  12-5

6.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  11-6

7.) New York Jets  =  10-7

NFC

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  14-3

2.) Minnesota Vikings  =  13-4

3.) San Francisco 49ers  =  12-5

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  9-8

5.) Dallas Cowboys  =  12-5

6.) New York Giants  =  10-7

7.) Washington Commanders  =  10-7

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Schedule

Byes: Arizona Cardinals (4-8),  Carolina Panthers (4-8)

15.) Cleveland Browns (4-7)  @  Houston Texans (1-9-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "The Return of the... Oh Wait, No Wait, We're Not Kidding" Sunday, as Deshaun Watson makes his ill-fated return, somehow against the team that got rid of him (and maybe enabled him....). If the whole story wasn't so awful, and both teams weren't so bad, maybe this would be interesting. But to me, this game is disgusting both off and on the field.

14.) Green Bay Packers (4-7)  @  Chicago Bears (3-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

13.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-8)  @  Atlanta Falcons (5-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday, as we get two games with teams that are outside of the playoff picture. Granted, I guess the Falcons are alive for the NFC South, but given how Tom Brady lives to ruin lives, I'm not going to give any credence to the Falcons actually catching them. The one level of intrigue here is I guess if Jordan Love starts for hte Packers - but even that would've been more fun if it were Love vs. Fields. 

12.) Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (8-3)  (SNF - NBC) 

11.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5)  @  Los Angeles Rams (3-9)  (4:05 - FOX)

10.) Denver Broncos (3-8)  @  Baltimore Ravens (7-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad vs. Good" Sunday, as we get three games with dead and buried teams (DEN, IND, LAR) against three playoff teams (or hopefuls, in Seattle's case). I guess they're ranked by level of upset potential, but maybe also in ranking of schaudenfreude the world is getting at their failures. The Colts didn't ahve as high expectations of the other two, but with the Saturday of it all people are still taking their shots.

9.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7)  @  Detroit Lions (4-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "The best game with two teams 3 games under .500" Sunday, as truly we get an exciting 4-7 vs. 4-7 game. Both the Jags and Lions are coming off of games that went down to the wire against good teams (one won, one lost), and have played gernally exciting games for much of the year. I still have a crush on the Jags (for some reason), and the Lions have a chance to go 4-1 over a five game stretch for the first time since 2016 - granted they went 8-1 over 9 games that year.

8.) New Orleans Saints (4-8)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)  (MNF - ESPN)

7.) Los Angeles Chargers (6-5)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Desperation Day" Sunday and Monday, as we get to see if the Saints and Raiders have any life left. Wins here can keep their playoff hopes somewhat alive (granted, I'm stretching with the Raiders, even at 5-7 are likeley done). The Saints try to win in Tampa for a 3rd straight year, and on Monday Night, which is a recurring trend as the first two wins in Tampa were on Sunday Night. For the Chargers and Raiders, this is also a rematch in teh same location of that bonkers Week 18 capper last year. A lot has changed in 11 months.

6.) Washington Commanders (7-5)  @  New York Giants (7-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
5.) New York Jets (7-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (9-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Somehow these aren't Close to the Best Games" Sunday, as we finally get a week with a bunch of >.500 vs. >.500 matchups. These two are the lesser in the sense that the teams in the final four games are all better (with maybe one exception). Commanders vs. Giants is interesting because the Giants are at way more risk to me of falling out of the playoffs, with the head-to-head loss to Seattle and them getting more injured while Washington gets healthier. Jets vs. Vikings is a nice appetizer to a series of good inter-conference matchups as well. I think there's a perception the AFC is stronger than the NFC, which will get tested.

4.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Mahomes Tries to Avoid a First" Sunday, as Mahomes tries to avoid losing three straight games to the same team for the first time - given the Bengals won in Week 17 last year and then memorably in the AFC Title Game. The Chiefs easy schedule also means this might be the only game they might drop from here on out. For the Bengals side, getting Jamarr Chase back is huge given how well he torched the Chiefs in the regular season matchup last year. The Bengals actually have the same record as the team last year did at this point, but are perceived to be a better team. If they are, or want to be, this is a game they either win or play the Chiefs tough.

3.) Tennessee Titans (7-4)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
2.) Miami Dolphins (8-3)  @  San Francisco 49ers (7-4)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "Cool AFC vs. NFC Fun" Sunday, as we get the main course and dessert of the inter-conference matchups. The NFC Teams should be rightfully favored, but if the NFC Teams struggle than it could be a big warning sign about the strenght of the conferences. For the Eagles, this will be a tough matchup as the Titans can hit their biggest weakness (rush defense), and the Titans own rush defense is stronger than most prior Eagles' opponents. For the Dolphins, their incredibly efficient offense gets its biggest test against the best defense in the NFL right now. Also a juicy under-plot of McDaniel facing the 49ers team he left. I would say its very annoying the Dolphins game isn't the primary late-window game, but the one that is I have at #4, so NFL schedulers did well this week.

1.) Buffalo Bills (8-3)  @  New England Patriots (6-5)  (TNF - Prime)

I call it "Belichick's Revenge / Encore" Thursday, as we get the first matchup between these two since the 47-17 Bills thrashing of New England in the Wild Card round - a game that was defintiely the worst defensive performance by a Belichick team in his time in New England. Of course, even the two regular season games were memorable, first for the Patriots win in the wind-bowl, throwing just three times, and then the Bills regular season win that locked in the division where they also didn't punt (though turned it over twice). Rare do we get a good TNF game, and not only do we get one, but since both teams played on Thanksgiving, each has a normal week of rest. Good stuff here to start the week.