NFL 2021: Week 9 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Suck for... What?" Quadro

32.) Houston Texans  =  1-7  (119-241)

31.) Detroit Lions  =  0-8  (134-244)
30.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-6  (123-203)
29.) Miami Dolphins  =  1-7  (138-233)

All four of these teams have been good at some point in the near past, or at least in my lifetime watching football. All four probably wish for eras slighted at the time, particularly say the Bill O'Brien 9-7-ness in Houston or the Jack Del Rio & Jim Schwartz eras in Jacksonville & Detroit respectively. Out of these teams, I have no idea even who I would pick to be the best team five years from now. I guess Jacksonville because of me still being a believer in Trevor Lawrence. Of course I am the opposite of believing in Urban Meyer. The other three teams all have QB issues, in a draft without a truly great QB. Great timing.

Tier II - The "Relatively bad spoilers" Duo

28.) Washington Football Team  =  2-6  (156-227)

27.) New York Jets  =  2-5  (114-206)

The Football Team alternates close losses and getting blown out badly. They have mastered this art of losing games on average by 10 points, not bad enough to thrust them into the spotlight, but never good enough to really challenge good teams. The defense has finally started playing better just as Heinecke's offense has gone dry the last three weeks, scoring 13-10-10 points. For the Jets, they are unlike the Football Team, alternating from depressingly bad to good enough to win close games against teams that otherwise have lost just htree games. Hard to believe this team that lost their two games against New England by a combined 79-19 have also beaten the Bengals and Titans. Also can I quickly mention hat despite me overall liking Robert Saleh as a coach, his waffling around whether he has a QB controversy is just dumb.

Tier III - The "Slightly less bad Spoilers" Quadro

26.) Chicago Bears  =  3-5  (123-195)

25.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-4  (148-195)
24.) New York Giants  =  2-6  (156-200)

23.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-5  (203-191)

22.) Seattle Seahawks  =  3-5  (181-169)

Man, the NFC non-playoff teams is a jumbled mess. All five of these teams can win a game or two (in fact, they have!). the Bears and Falcons just to me have the lowest ceilings given their challenges on offense. The Giants and Seahawks play nearly every game close but just have enough limitations on offense to get behind them too much. Injuries have played a factor, with Daniel Jones down four of his best weapons yesterday, and the Seahawks needing to tread water until Russell Wilson gets back. For the Eagles, it says a lot more about the Lions when they beat them 38-0 than it does Philadelphia. 

Tier IV - The "Jumbled mess of defense-first teams" Quadro

21.) Denver Broncos  =  4-4  (157-137)

20.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-4  (165-159)

19.) New England Patriots  =  4-4  (206-164)
18.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  4-3  (132-142)

It's interesting that despite the NFL is very much in lockstep with its ever increasing offensive efficiency, in areas like total points, yards, passing stats, that there is this nice little cushy middle tier of teams that are all defense first. All of these offense are just so limited to really think they have the ability to go on a run. Due to coaching and ultimatley slightly more confidence in their defense I do think New England and Pittsburgh are more likely, but ultimately this Matt Cassel impression from Mac Jones, and whatever the Steelers offense is trying, will have its limits in 2021. For the Broncos and Panthers, both finally got another win, in much the same way they did in Weeks 1-3. But they might be close to reverting to teams from weeks 4-7, especially with the Broncos trading away Von Miller and realizing the Fangio era may have a clear expiry.

Tier V - The "Very alive .500 and worse" Quadro

17.) Minnesota Vikings  =  3-4  (163-157)

16.) San Francisco 49ers  =  3-4  (168-171)

15.) Cleveland Browns  =  4-4  (183-180)

14.) Indianapolis Colts  =  3-5  (200-183)

Honestly, you can order these four and the prior four in many ways - but personally I just feel these four have a bit more potential to go on a run. The Vikings still have a lot of strong underlying indicators - except for scoring. Their discrepancy between yards (7th) and points (18th) should level out at some point. For the 49ers, getting Garoppolo back helps, as will Kittle, and the schedule gets a lot easier the back half of the season - aside from back-to-back home games against Arizona and the Rams. For the Browns, as long as Mayfield stays healthy that team has a potential to go on a run, but he certainly doesn't look too healthy. For the Colts, DVOA has them as a Top-10 team, and I agree. They lost close games against a Wilson-led Seahawks and Rams team to start, then further close losses to Baltimore & Tennessee it OT. Out of any 3+ loss team no team has more impressive losses than teh Colts. Hard to write home too much there, but their schedule is not super tough down the stretch, assuming they can steal at least one win against Tampa, Buffalo or Arizona.

Tier VI - The "Pour one out!" Uno

13.) New Orleans Saints  =  5-2  (176-128)

Just really depressing to write about the Saints this week. I honeslty think they had a shot at the division had Jameis stayed healthy. He was notably awful in their Week 2 loss to Carolina but was doing fine, if not good, otherwise, and that defense is great. Just great at all levels, especially the way the secondary is playing, with such good coordination. Speaking of, Sean Payton has done a great job for years now dealing with QB changes. Aside from his weird love of Taysom Hill, his work with Bridgewater or Jameis and now even Siemian is just so commendable.

Tier VII - The "Jumbled Mess of the AFC" Quinto

12.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  4-4  (208-220)

11.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  5-3  (220-162)
10.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-3  (172-177)

9.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-2  (180-166)

8.) Tennessee Titans  =  6-2  (227-195)

There's a lot being written about how messy the AFC is - and likely so. I don't think we've had a conference so quickly get to a point where all teams had at least two losses - which actually happened a week ago when Baltimore lost. Still, I do think there are two better teams followed by this jumble. For KC, its on reputation alone. The defense quietly has been better last three weeks, but the offense just seems lost right now - specifically Travis Kelce and any ability to make big plays. For the Bengals, Chargers and Raiders, it is just so hard to trust them consistently. Their losses are ugly, but they have some of the better wins as well. To me for each if their OL can hold up they have a real shot. For the Titans, losing Henry hurts but I think the Tannehill to Brown/Julio connection is good enough to keep their offense at a level that they'll win that division. If Henry can come back for the palyoffs, especially with a bit lighter workload than normal this might work out for them if anything.

Tier VIII - The "Let's put over someone else" Trio

7.) Baltimore Ravens  =  5-2  (187-164)

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  6-2  (260-183)

5.) Green Bay Packers  =  7-1  (192-167)

Any of these three can win the Super Bowl, I just really prefer if one of the next four (yes, including Dallas which is to come) do so. I'm ok if Baltimore does, actually would be happy in that case given what it means for Lamar. Their defense needs to consistently play well and not having these secondary breakdowns like they had against both Indy and Cincy but i believe in them long term. For the Bucs, they have to cut down on penalties and for the Packers, they just have to get guys off the COVID list. The defense has proven itself for a half a year now, but I do wish they traded for some additional pass rushing support.

Tier IX - The "Winning ugly is still winning" Duo

4.) Buffalo Bills  =  5-2  (229-109)

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  6-1  (225-162)

Both of these two have great wins, have explainable losses (Bills in Week 1, then a game they came a QB sneak away from winning on the road in primetime, for the Dallas a loss at the gun on Opening night). Both now have also wins that didn;t seem great but are wins. For the Bills, a 17-point win against a bad team is already in 'disappointing' status which says more about their play to date. The pass rush returning was a nice plus. For the Cowboys, their 4-point win in Minnesota was a bit more well reputed given it came with teh backup QB, but still for them to win on the road in primetime against a good team while falling behind with their bacup speaks really well for the Cowboys. It's ironic given how he's viewed, but Mike McCarthy has often fared pretty well with backups, from teh Matt Flynn moments in 2010-11, to even now.

Tier X - The "NFC West is NFC Best, just in a different way!" Duo

2.) Los Angeles Rams  =  7-1  (245-168)
1.) Arizona Cardinals  =  7-1  (246-138)

Two years ago, the NFC West had two of the best team in the NFL. They played a memorable Week 17 game, the regular season finale, that was played to the gun to decide the division, with the winenr getting the #1 seed adn the loser a strong 11-5 wild card. Two years later, two of the best teams are still in the NFC West - except its the two other teams. The NFC West has been a machine since Harbaugh vs. Carroll, but this is the one combination we never had. We had 49ers and Seahawks (2012-2014, 2019), we had Rams and Seahawks (2017-2018, 2020), we had Seahawks and Cardinals (2015), but we never had Rams and Cardinals. We're getting it now. Sadly their second game is not Week 18. I'm keeping Arizona at #1 because I walked away from their great game against Green Bay feeling they were better and got unlucky, but really, the top of the NFL is close, even outside these two NFC West beasts.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2), Washington Football Team (2-6), Seattle Seahawks (3-5), Detroit Lions (0-8)

14.) Houston Texans (1-7)  @  Miami Dolphins (1-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) New York Jets (2-6)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-5)  (TNF - NFLN)
12.) Buffalo Bills (6-2)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Las Vegas Raiders (5-2)  @  New York Giants (2-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Arizona Cardinals (7-1)  @  San Francisco 49ers (3-4)  (4:25 - FOX)
8.) MInnesota Vikings (3-4)  @  Baltimore Ravens (5-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

7.) Chicago Bears (3-5)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

6.) Denver Broncos (4-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Atlanta Falcons (3-4)  @  New Orleans Saints (5-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
4.) New England Patriots (4-4)  @  Carolina Panthers (4-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

3.) Cleveland Browns (4-4)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

2.) Green Bay Packers (7-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)  (4:25 - FOX)
1.) Tennessee Titans (6-2)  @  Los Angeles Rams (7-1)  (SNF - NBC)