Lounging Pass: NFL 2021: Week 13 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Yes, they've won a game or two, but they still suck" Trio

32.) Houston Texans = 2-9 (164-292)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 2-9 (173-283)

30.) New York Jets = 3-8 (199-334)

I realize all these teams have at least two wins, and there is a winless team to come, but let's realize that overall week to week performance is a better indicator of how good these teams are than just how many times they've lucked into a win. Anyway, more on Detroit in a minute. The Texans and Jaguars probably both got their lone random win two and three weeks ago. The Jets have now won three games but have the worst point differential in the NFL. None of these three teams are any good - I guess the only plus for the Jaguars and Jets is they have a rookie QB who is getting some experience. Of course given how bad both have been, maybe it's better to be Texas to be that bad without having anything to root for at QB.

Tier II - The "Best winless team ever" Uno

29.) Detroit Lions = 0-10-1 (174-289)

The Lions may steer into truly being a terrible team, but for large stretches of this season they have been just plain bad instead of awful. They've lost now three times on last second field goals, one being a 66-yarder. They've had leads late in games. They've come really close to winning a few games. I actually like Dan Campbell and hope he gets more time to prove himself here. There's just so little talent to play up, with so much needed on both lines, at the skill positions and maybe QB.

Tier III - The "Yeah, they're just bad" Trio

28.) Atlanta Falcons = 5-6 (199-302)

27.) Chicago Bears = 4-7 (179-254)

26.) Seattle Seahawks = 3-8 (209-226)

The Falcons are shockingly in the playoff race with their five wins, and looking at their schedule getting to 8 may be a possibility, but my word is that not a playoff ready team. The defense is crumbling, Matt Ryan has a combination of mediocre targets (aside from Kyle Pitts) and poor protection. They would be one of the worst playoff teams ever. The Bears are probably too far from the playoffs and just playing out a string before inevitably firing Matt Nagy, and maybe Ryan Pace. The interesting one here is Seattle. By point differential they are mediocre, rather than bad, but by all accounts they are just bad with Wilson still spraying passes since comign back from his injury, the defense having a high-variance set of results that normally errs to the bad side. The question is are Pete Carroll's days numbered or do they give him a mulligan for his first truly bad season there since 2011.

Tier IV - The "Almost dead spoilers" Trio

25.) New Orleans Saints = 5-6 (257-249)

24.) Carolina Panthers = 5-7 (236-253)
23.) Miami Dolphins = 5-7 (234-279)

I feel bad for the Saints - had Jameis Winston not torn his ACL they are very likely a playoff team, if not maybe still alive for the division given their head-to-head win over Tampa. Instead Trevor Siemian is lost, and still somehow a better option than throwing Taysom Hill and his millions out there. The Panthers renaissance lasted a week before Newton looked like a guy who was sitting out for ten weeks and now McCaffrey is out for the year. The Dolphins suddenly are 3-1 in their last four games, and Tua looks far better despite still having such issues with protection. The Dolphins are still nowhere near good enough to win against good teams (random 40 zero-blitzing aside), but it is somewhat nice they're a bit alive.

Tier V - The "In theory alive, but not" Quadro

22.) New York Giants = 4-7 (202-253)

21.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 5-5-1 (224-267)

20.) Washington Football Team = 5-6 (229-282)

19.) Philadelphia Eagles = 5-7 (304-273)

I don't think these four teams are really in it - despite the Football Team being your current #7 seed in the NFC, and the Steelers being half a game back of a playoff spot. The Giants are still good enough to play most teams close, and their defense finally having a great game like they used to from 2020 was a nice plus. I don't see it with Pittsburgh at this point, particularly with their secondary and defense really struggling last few weeks. The Football Team is intriguing becuase they've settled into a fairly nice offensive rhythm with Heinicke but 'nice offensive rhythm' still put up just 17 points against Seattle. Finally the Eagles probably have too many losses at this point, but much like the 2016 Eagles strong 7-9 season gave way to a great 2017 season, we could be seeing something similar here.

Tier VI - The "Middle mess of the AFC" Quadro

18.) Las Vegas Raiders = 6-5 (259-295)

17.) Cleveland Browns = 6-6 (254-267)

16.) Denver Broncos = 6-5 (228-196)
15.) Los Angeles Chargers = 6-5 (273-293)

The AFC is a jumbled mess in terms of the wild card, as so happens when the bottom of the conference is so bad to stuff up the middle. I don't think any of these four teams are any good, and there is a decent chance none of them make the playoffs. The Raiders offense has valiantly stayed decent after losing both Gruden and Ruggs, but the defense is still a mess. The Browns offense is equally a mess - at some point we have to see if Mayfield can play in a non rollout/McVay type offense, because he's just so limited in it. The Broncos and Chargers are both teams that should be better than their record. It is worrying how much Herbert seems to have plateaued. Granted, this is year-2 for him, but he's becoming more susceptible to pressure as the season has gone on.

Tier VII - The "Is it time to revisit Stafford trade?" Uno

14.) Los Angeles Rams = 7-4 (299-263)

We all so happily proclaimed the genius of Sean McVay and the Stafford trade through their 7-1 start, especially with their earlier win over the Buccaneers. But ever since they had the falling out with DeSean Jackson, this team just hasn't shown up. The Packers loss was not really any closer than the losses to the 49ers and Titans before it. The offense cannot make room for Kupp without defenses having to worry about Jackson's speed and Robert Wood's brilliance. More worrying honestly is a defense that hasn't integrated Von Miller one bit. Donald is his normally great self but the pass rush that he unleashed on the edges is sorely missing.

Tier VIII - The "Better than their record" Trio

13.) Minnesota Vikings = 5-6 (281-276)
12.) Indianapolis Colts = 6-6 (340-283)
11.) San Francisco 49ers = 6-5 (280-248)

The Vikings and 49ers played a nice close game of two teams that looked, and have played, a lot better than their records entering the game (5-5 vs. 5-5). The Vikings offense has a lower floor than it should, but generally has succeeded at protecting Cousins. The 49ers offense is humming with Garoppolo, and while the defense is more high variance than it used to be with Salah, there is enough talent there to lock down most teams. The Colts are an interesting one. They're one of the higehst scoring teams in teh NFL. Wentz has played well. They from a down-to-down perspective outplayed Tampa, a week after killing the Bills. They have little to no margin for error in terms of making the playoffs, but they might be the best non-division winner (AFC East excluded).

Tier IX - The "Worse than their record, probably..." Duo

10.) Cincinnati Bengals = 7-4 (309-226)

9.) Tennessee Titans = 8-4 (304-290)

It might be unfair to say that either team is worse than their record. The Bengals have a few blowout wins on their ledger, and a +83 point differential through 11 games is right on track with a very good team. Of course they have some really bad losses as well. The Titans point differential is bad, but they also gave New England a decent game for three quarters missing basically half their above average starters. The Titans bye comes at the right time as they need Brown and Jones back immediately to pose any real threat. Luckily for them the Bucs beat Indianapolis, or that division would look somewhat tempting. The Bengals have a very tough schedule to close this out, though with four remaining home games. They have to hope I'm wrong in my assessment or a 10-7 or 9-8 record is very viable.

Tier X - The "Good, but I have questions" Duo

8.) Dallas Cowboys = 7-4 (326-250)

7.) New England Patriots = 8-4 (336-190)

The Cowboys are an excellent team, but I do wonder if the defense is a bit too injured (and too dependent on a rookie in Micah Parsons who may hit a wall?), and the offense too dependent on players currently out to make a real long term run. That division is theirs but there is value in being a #2 seed, somethikng they need to probably close out no worse than 5-1 to manage. For the Patriots, the six-game win streak has been impressive - especially a defense that is resembling the 2019 unit that ruled the NFL for a half season. Before I really crown them I do want to note how limiting their offense is, how little trust Belichick seems to have in it (punting on 4th and manageable more than any other team), and how spotty their record is against the few good teams they've played to date. This week against Buffalo is a huge test.

Tier XI - The "Is a rematch silently inevitable?" Duo

6.) Kansas City Chiefs = 7-4 (281-250)
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 8-3 (347-253)

There's a lot of talk this week about the prospect of a Patriots vs. Buccaneers Super Bowl - a truly mind-numbing prospect indeed - one where I would root for New England. What I do wonder however is while that seems tempting, more distressingly is the prospect of a rematch. The Chiefs are now just a game back of the #'1 seed (granted with a head to head loss to Baltimore). The defense has quietly been very good for a month now, especially after just moving Chris Jones inside. Mahomes is still nowhere near as explosive as usual but he's learning to be more patient with the 8-12 yard games. The Chiefs are rounding into form at the right time, much like maybe the 2020 Bucs did. As for the 2021 unit, the offense has been a bit underwhelming a few weeks in a row now (yes, this is true even after scoring 38 points), but that defense is starting to get a more consistent pass rush. That is needed given the secondary issues they've had this year.

Tier XII - The "Class? of the AFC?" Duo

4.) Baltimore Ravens = 8-3 (263-240)
3.) Buffalo Bills = 7-4 (326-182)

In theory these are the two best teams in the AFC. I'll still give Buffalo a nod over the Patriots but obviously that trust will be put to the test this upcomign Monday. I just find their body of work a bit more sustainable. The Ravens body of work is bizarre, the current #1 seed despite just a +23 point differential. Lamar didn't seem 100% but that defense has been able to recover from that thrashing the Bengals put on them. The continued integratoin of Perriman into the offense will help alleviate some of the pressure on Brown and Andrews as well.

Tier XIII - The "Class of the NFC!" Duo

2.) Green Bay Packers = 9-3 (283-242)
1.) Arizona Cardinals = 9-2 (310-202)

The Packers point differential will always be harmed by their week 1 abberation - and giving up late garbage TDs to the Rams and the like. But that defense has been quite good for most of the season, with Rashaan Gary really coming into his own. The secondary has played well despite having to integrate new players. The defense is better than the unit from last year. The offense isn't as good as last year's unit, but Rodgers's connection with non-Adams receivers continues to improve week over week. For the Cardinals, I feel like it's been a while since we really saw them - and of course its been over a month since we have with Kyler. We should be set to see them take off with Kyler, Nuke back and a defense that is doing some great work under Vance Joseph. They have a very 2015 Panthers or 2017 Eagles vibe where at some point the team that got off to the super hot start is just really that good.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Green Bay Packers (9-3), Tennessee Titans (8-4), Carolina Panthers (5-7), Cleveland Browns (6-6)

14.) New York Giants (4-7) @ Miami Dolphins (5-7) (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Bad vs Bad" Sunday,

13.) Minnesota Vikings (5-6) @ Detroit Lions (0-10-1) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) @ New York Jets (3-8) (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-4) (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "Bad vs Mediocre" Sunday,

10.) Indianapolis Colts (6-6) @ Houston Texans (2-9) (1:00 - CBS)

9.) Washington Football Team (5-6) @ Las Vegas Raiders (6-5) (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "I just don't care" Sunday,

8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-6) (1:00 - FOX)

7.) Arizona Cardinals (9-2) @ Chicago Bears (4-7) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Dallas Cowboys (7-4) @ New Orleans Saints (5-6) (TNF - NFLN)