Lounging Pass: NFL 2021: Week 5 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the 0-4 Teams

Tier 1a: The "Yeah, no surprise here!" Duo

2.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 0-4 (74-115)

1.) Detroit Lions = 0-4 (81-119)

The Jaguars may have a bright future with Trevor Lawrence. I think he'll be special, this is a team devoid of talent and he's kept them somewhat competitive. What doesn't help is Urban Meyer is well on the side of the 'can't do it when you're team isn't more talented' ledger at the moment in terms of college coaches trying to cut it in the NFL. It already seems obvious he's a goner. Less obvious is the Lions being bad again. I do think there is enough talent to win a few games, and the defense generally plays hard, but for seemingly the twentieth straight year the Lions are just lacking in talent. One day, fifty years from now, maybe having the Jags and Lions at the bottom of the league will seem surprising, but we are so far away from taht at the moment.

Ranking the 1-3 Teams

Tier 2a: The "QBs are important, I guess" Trio

10.) Miami Dolphins = 1-3 (62-109)

9.) Houston Texans = 1-3 (67-116)

8.) New York Jets = 1-3 (47-94)

The Dolphins were one win against the Bills B team to making the playoffs last year. That seems miles away right now. Granted, Tua hasn't played, but nothing on that offense makes me think they'll magically get better. The Dolphins were masquerading last year with a bunch of return TDs and the like. Those are gone. The Texans are also missing their starting QB, who has silently just disappeared I guess. The team is just a mess. It's hard to think we're in year 20 of the Texans franchise and this is where they're at. Somehow, the Jets at least maybe have a QB. It was one game, and Wilson still had some bad throws but he also had some incredible throws mixed in. The defense is playing like a Robert Salah defense. There may be something here - but it is still a bit early to know.

Tier 2b: The "I guess some older QBs age?" Duo

7.) Atlanta Falcons = 1-3 (78-128)

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 1-3 (67-93)

You know how Tom Brady is not aging, despite this being a sport that basically everyone does, with him doing things no one even three years younger have done? Yeah, well he's still unique because both of these guys are. Yes, Matt Ryan was great last week but he really can't throw the deep ball too well. Ben Roethlisberger can't throw it all! Watching Roethlisberger throw quick outs and check downs on fourth down is just bizarre. It's wasting what is geniunely still a good defense. The Falcons don't have a defense at all, that was an embarrassing loss.

Tier 2c

5.) New England Patriots = 1-3 (70-71)

4.) Indianapolis Colts = 1-3 (83-97)

3.) Philadelphia Eagles = 1-3 (94-106)

All of these teams need to overcome QB weaknesses - it's just odd the Colts weak QB is a former #2 overall pick. Wentz has probably been both well better than last year and disappointing. For the Patriots, they're basically running the early-Brady offense but in a very different league. Mac Jones has the accuracy to make it work, but that team is a lot like a Pennington-era Jets team at the moment - some of those were 10-win teams. The Eagles are just not above average in any real respect, and while they have crafted an offense for Hurts's skills I don't see their OL or targets being good enough to get them above average.

Tier 2d

2.) New York Giants = 1-3 (83-95)

1.) Minnesota Vikings = 1-3 (94-92)

The Giants have played three close games and won one of them. They're not a bad team, as even their point differential wouild attest. The offense needs to be better, but defensively they're once again solid. Saquon finally seems to have a spring back. The division is probably too far gone unless they pull an upset this Sunday in Dallas, and likely a wild card is too, but I do see some positives. For the Vikings, it's hard to say. That was just a disaster. Kirk Cousins is maddening - so good the week before when they throttle Seattle and then a 7-point pathetic display.

Ranking the 2-2 Teams

Tier 3a

7.) Chicago Bears = 2-2 (64-91)

6.) Washington Football Team = 2-2 (101-122)

Every year there's a few teams that start 2-2 that just feel they should be way worse, that you're surprised they managed to win two games. It's these two this year. I have no idea how the Bears have done it, and even less idea how Washington has, winning two games by scores of 30-29 and 34-30 for what was supposed to be a top defense. The Bears still have a messy coaching situation and the WFT needs to rediscover something resembling their pass rush from 2020. I doubt either happens and we start to see them with records that fit more with what we would expect.

Tier 3b

5.) Tennessee Titans = 2-2 (95-111)

4.) San Francisco 49ers = 2-2 (107-102)

These are your teams that will look incredible impressive for games, but sometimes just for halves. The Titans are just bizarre at this point, losing to the Jets, suddenly forgetting how to protect Tannehill. The division is bad enough that 9-7 likely wins it (if not by multiple games) but the 49ers get no such benefit. I'll be interested to see how Trey Lance plays if he has to start for a few weeks as he was awful aside from the busted coverage TD. What is more worrying for me, to be honest, is how variable that 49ers pass rush is. It was at its 2019 (if not 2011-2013) best in the first half but then went silent - similar happened in the Green Bay game. I guess this is what happened when you have to pick and choose which super talented D-lineman to keep.

Tier 3c

3.) New Orleans Saints = 2-2 (94-69)

2.) Seattle Seahawks = 2-2 (103-100)

I want these two to play each other. I'm not sure why, but I feel like they're similar. Both are good teams with good talent, but one that will just disappear at times. The Seahawks offense has such a low floor, but given what we've seen against Carolina, as does the Saints offense. The other units have super high floors. It's simplistic to say, but if the Seahawks coverage is anythign better than garbage (as it was against say Minnesota) or Jameis is not throwing two picks, both teams are among the better ones in the league.

Tier 3d

1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 2-2 (134-125)

The defense is very much a problem. Their pass rush has to resort to blitzing (not that Spags needs much invitation), and with that their secondary is just exposed. I guess it's a high-risk strategy that can result in some takeaways every now and then, but mostly it makes their offense needs to score 30+ points. Well? It turns out when they don't turn the ball over four times they're almost a lock to score 30, if not 40. Mahomes is still the scariest QB in the NFL, but this has a recipe of a very 12-4 2004 Colts Peyton type team.

Ranking the 3-1 Teams

Tier 4a: The "Even if this isn't real, it's important" Uno

12.) Cincinnati Bengals = 3-1 (92-75)

It probably won't last, but the Bengals are building something. 17 years after Carson Palmer's first season, Joe Burrow is doing a nice imitation, including having his own version of Chad Johnson in Jamarr Chase. Burrow wasn't great in that game but that type of comeback, in a home primetime game, even against a terrible Jags team, is a momentum builder. The Bengals likely fade but this team has a bright, bright future, because I truly believe that Joe Burrow is a future star.

Tier 4b: The "Maybe it was just bad offense the first three weeks" Duo

11.) Denver Broncos = 3-1 (83-49)

10.) Carolina Panthers = 3-1 (97-66)

The Broncos and Panthers both started 3-0 on the back of great defenses, incredible ones really. Well, when your defense was being great against Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Daniel Jones, Zack Wilson again, Jameis Winston and finally David Mills. Yeah, that's going to do it. When it comes to then facing Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott? It wasn't as good. I still think both teams are generally good, and as week's go on the Sam Darnold-led offense seems more and more sustainable. But the fact remains that some times an easy schedule is just an easy schedule.

Tier 4c: The "I know the NFL varies week to week, but come on!" Duo

9.) Las Vegas Raiders = 3-1 (104-100)

8.) Cleveland Browns = 3-1 (100-67)

The Raiders do this evey year seemingly with Gruden. Last year it was after the Chiefs win. This year it was their 3-0 start, and then they just disappeared for a half. Last year they did the same, thought for a full game, losing 45-3 or something to Atlanta. The Raiders are a decent team, I truly believe that, and even in that game they cut it to 7 with the ball in Chargers territory before the sack & missed field goal. For the Browns, they also seem to go through these stretches where the offense just goes away. Mayfield should not be having games where he's running out of the pocket at the first moment of concern and throwing less than 50% completions in year 4. The defense is legitimately superb but this was a pretty poor showing. Last year the Browns had a 4-5 week stretch like this but most of those games were at home in wind or snow or rain, this was an offensive disaster (admittedly in a win) in a dome.

Tier 4d: The "It's not surprising they played a 20-17 game" Duo

7.) Los Angeles Chargers = 3-1 (95-74)

6.) Dallas Cowboys = 3-1 (126-97)

These two played a really interesting game with more offensive than you would think. In that game both teams come out looking well, with the Cowboys running on the Chargers far better than any other team, and the Chargers limiting the Cowboys on offense to 20 points, way below others. That is impressive. Of course both teams have been relatively impressive in their other games, with the Cowboys only loss being a last-second field goal by the Bucs in Tampa, and the Chargers of course being 3-0 in other games. I do have a sense their ceilings are a bit lower than those I'm ranking above them, but that might be just delaying me trusting them.

Tier 4e

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 3-1 (122-105)

4.) Green Bay Packers = 3-1 (95-100)

3.) Baltimore Ravens = 3-1 (105-92)

2.) Los Angeles Rams = 3-1 (115-99)

The Bucs escaped that game, and the injuries in their secondary are a problem. They were remarkably healthy last year, and that is certainly not the case. What is the case is their suddenly resurgent run game which can pick up some of the slack. For the Pcakers, more and more I'm getting impressed by the defense. Yes, the steelers offense is a nightmare by this point, but the Packers pass rush is working well even without one of the Smith's. Speaking of pass rush, the Ravens were great. Actually the most impressive part of the Ravens to me so far is their passing game. Lamar is throwing more, and throwing better, from the pocket. If not for a few drops against the Lions we would be probably talking a lot more about this. He was great against a heretofore excellent Broncos defense. And finally for the Rams, everyone gets a bad game - their resume was strong enough the first three weeks to give a mulligan.

Tier 4f: The "Once again, NEVER overreact to Week 1" Uno

1.) Buffalo Bills = 3-1 (134-44)

The Bills were controlling their Week 1 tilt against the Steelers until a blocked-punt TD gave the Steelers the lead they wouldn't relinquish. Even in that 'bad' game they gave up just 13 real points. Their defense which got a lot better over the second half of last season continued to show. Well? Since then they've shutout two teams and strafed Washington in the middle there. The Bills won't outscore opponents 4:1 all season long, but this is very likely the best team in the NFL at the moment, with Josh Allen not really regressing and the defense looking far more like the 2019 version that was a Top-5 defense. That is a terrifying combination.

Ranking the 4-0 Teams

Tier 5a" The "You know what? I'm sold" Uno

1.) Arizona Cardinals = 4-0 (140-85)

I was a bit of a Cards denier. To me, their win over Tennessee was more about Tennessee playing surprisingly poor. Their win over the Vikings was a bit lucky in a coin flip game. Their win over the Jags was the Jags! But then they went out and just smacked a good Rams team, controlling that game from teh second they got the interception on Stafford. Honestly, it's the defense that has impressed me more than teh offense. The secondary has really improved, they can limit passing attacks. Their offense finally started rushing the ball. This is a really good team, period.

Looking Ahead to Next Week

16.) New York Jets (1-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-3) (London - NFLN)

15.) Detroit Lions (0-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3) (1:00 - FOX)

14.) Tennessee Titans (2-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) (1:00 - CBS)

13.) New England Patriots (1-3) @ Houston Texans (1-3) (1:00 - CBS)

12.) Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Denver Broncos (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) (1:00 - CBS)

10.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) @ Carolina Panthers (3-1) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Indianapolis Colts (1-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1) (MNF - ESPN)

8.) Chicago Bears (2-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (X-X) (4:05 - CBS)

7.) New York Giants (1-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-1) (4:25 - FOX)

6.) New Orleans Saints (2-2) @ Washington Football Team (2-2) (1:00 - CBS)

5.) San Francisco 49ers (2-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-0) (4:25 - FOX)

4.) Cleveland Browns (3-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers (X-X) (4:05 - CBS)