Lounging Pass: NFL 2021: Week 4 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the 0-3 Teams:

Tier 1a - The "Here we go again" Trio

5.) New York Jets = 0-3 (20-70)

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 0-3 (53-91)

3.) Detroit Lions = 0-3 (67-95)

None of these are surprising, though I do feel bad lumping the Lions in with the Jets and Jaguars. For the Jets, I like the hiring of Robert Saleh, I think long term they may be building something, but Zach Wilson is so bad. I don't know if Lawrence will be bad, but he has been god awful so far, throwing late, terrible interceptions. Some of that may be playcalling that could work in college (like that ridiculous flea-flicker pick). For the Lions, they were outplayed for most of that game, but still needed a miracle to lose. They were spirited in Week 1 late, and led the Packers at halftime just a week ago. This is not a bad team, and Dan Campbell has them playing hard. That all said, the talent just isn't there.

Tier 1b - The "Wha... What... What happened!?" Uno

2.) Indianapolis Colts = 0-3 (56-80)

The Colts were never going to be great, but they should be better. If you look at the games individually, they were very competitive against both Seattle and the Rams (two good teams - in fact they played the Rams closer than anyone). Wentz has not been anything above merely above average, but they're 0-3 without seeming out of place. The defense has been decent. There's just nothing better than good about this team and a tough early schedule gives you an 0-3 start.

Tier 1c - The "Seriously guys, we're not this bad!" Uno

1.) New York Giants = 0-3 (56-74)

The Giants are 0-3 and two of their losses were to teams who otherwise have no wins (Washington, Atlanta). I probably am overrating them as the best 0-3 team, but that's because I think out of this group of five teams, they have the best single unit in their defense. They also lost both of their last two games with the other team hitting the game winning field goal at the gun. Yes, those are bad teams they lost to, but the Giants have been largely competitive, and even that Denver loss looks a bit better now than it did at the time. This is another lost season and it may prove to be that Daniel Jones just isn't going to cut it, but they have still been the best 0-3 team.

Ranking the 1-2 Teams:

Tier 2a - The "Thank god we got that win!" Trio

11.) Houston Texans = 1-2 (67-76)

10.) Chicago Bears = 1-2 (40-77)
9.) Atlanta Falcons = 1-2 (48-94)

The Texans are to me this year's version of the 2020 Jaguars, who won in week 1 then never won again. I doubt the Texans go 1-16 but if they're forced into playing David Mills for an extended stretch it won't be too much better. The Bears still have a decent defense but that offense was a nightmare. First, it looked like they were basically playing the same game plan with Fields in for Dalton. The O-Line is a disaster, the scheme gets no one open. How Matt Nagy is in the same coaching tree as so many good coaches is beyond me. They need to blow it up. The Falcons are already seemingly committed to that idea but still employ Matt Ryan. That division is already a lost cause for them and I'm not sure what their longer term plan can be as long as they have to keep trotting out an aging, expensive Matt Ryan.

Tier 2b - The "Offense shouldn't be hard in 2021" Quadro

8.) Miami Dolphins = 1-2 (45-82)

7.) Washington Football Team = 1-2 (67-92)

6.) New England Patriots = 1-2 (54-51)

5.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 1-2 (50-66)

Through three weeks offense is slightly down - from 24.8 ppg and 359.0 ypg to 23.4 ppg and 352.1 ypg. These aren't huge shifts, and is right in line with what the league was at in 2018 (2019 was relatively down). Here are some of the culprits (thought more of them were in the earlier grouping and the 0-3 teams). The Dolphins have an excuse that they're playing a backup, but Brissett and that offense was just inept for three quarters before some miracle non-repeatable stuff brought them to OT. Washington should be better given the pieces they have, but it's very clear Tyler Heinecke is very much a stop-gap. the Patriots and Steelers though: I just don't know what the answers are. The Patriots have to hope Mac Jones gets better but they also have no real skill position players to help him get there. It all seems too tough, in a way it never was for even Jimmy G or Cassel. For the Steelers, I'm just glad that one of the older QBs is aging in a normal way. Ben Roethlisberger is playing like a 39-year old that got hurt a lot. What's staggering is how less efficient even this version of the offense is compared to last year's that was passable. They really need one of the receivers to turn into a better possession threat.

Tier 2c - The "We should be better!" Duo

4.) Philadelphia Eagles = 1-2 (64-64)

3.) Seattle Seahawks = 1-2 (75-79)

Ok, I realize saying the Eagles should be better after they got undressed all night on Monday Night Football might be a stretch, but let's remember they were dominant in Week 1 and hung with San Francisco most of week 2. First primetime game in Dallas was always going to be a tough spot for them, and Hurts looked lost. I still like the team overall. The otehr aspect here is most of the 1-2 teams are teams we expect to be bad - the same situation will come up when I rank Dallas. As for the Seahawks, well I have no idea how they lost by so much. They really should not have blown the game against Tennessee. Russell Wilson is doing his usual thing of having a 130 paser rating early in teh season. The defense is more of a mess than usual but the offense is still tremendous, up until Carroll tightens the reins inevitably in Week 10.

Tier 2d - The "We are better" Duo

2.) Minnesota Vikings = 1-2 (87-78)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 1-2 (92-95)

Both these two teams could be 3-0 right now (granted, the Vikings were trailing for most of the Week 1 game). The Vikings lost in OT, then lost that nail-biter to the Cardinals. The Chiefs were winning by 11 points at the start of the 4th quarter against Baltimore and then nearly beat teh Chargers despite the three early TDs. Both teams have flaws, namely defense for both, and their margin of error isn't huge. This isn't surprising for Minnesota, a team destined for 9-8 with an outside shot of something better (man, Justin Jefferson is incredible). The Chiefs just have to stop turning the ball over - there's a little bit too much late Andy Reid-era Eagles in the Chiefs right now with the turnovers and lack of attention to detail. Not overreacting yet, look there's a lot of Brady-era Patriots seasons with 1-2 or 2-2 starts that work out just fine.

Ranking the 2-1 Teams:

Tier 3a - The "How did this happen!" Trio

11.) Cincinnati Bengals = 2-1 (68-54)

10.) New Orleans Saints = 2-1 (73-42)
9.) Tennessee Titans = 2-1 (71-84)

These aren't all surprising, especially Tennessee was a trendy sleeper pick, but after that disastrous performance in Week 1 it is nice to see them rebound at 2-1, and even nicer to see a bit of a pulse from Julio Jones in this past game. The Bengals are 2-1 and deservedly so. Really impressed with their defense so far, and of course the Burrow to Chase connection looks as good as we could have hoped. Their protection has to improve long term but so good so far there. Finally the Saints - it is just odd to see Jameis winning games throwing for 120 yards - of course mixing in a classic ridiculously dumb throw for a TD in the mix. The defense is every bit as good as it was last season. If they can unlock something resembling the good parts of the Bucs Jameis they could be a really good.

Tier 3b - The "We're really good... if everything goes well" Trio

8.) San Francisco 49ers = 2-1 (86-74)

7.) Cleveland Browns = 2-1 (86-60)

Both these teams can be really good, when the situations are right. I'm still not sure either can win a game when coming from behind (granted, the 49ers almost did). Both QBs can be great but need good pockets and rhythm to do so. Both defenses have d-lines capable of absolutely taking over games, but they can go silent for long stretches - with the 49ers its particularly mysterious how quiet their pass rush can be at times. I expect both teams to challenge for wild card (if not division) spots, but I don't think either has the maximum ceiling the six I have ranked ahead of them. Much like the 1-2 teams, I don't think there are many surprises in teh 2-1 set (Bengals aside...). So even the 7th best 2-1 in team is in a way the 12th best overall (the 2-1 teams + the five 3-0 teams).

Tier 3c - The "Just plain good teams" Duo

6.) Los Angeles Chargers = 2-1 (67-60)

5.) Dallas Cowboys = 2-1 (90-69)

4.) Green Bay Packers = 2-1 (68-83)

The Chargers easily could be 3-0, they could be 1-2. What they have though is a great, young QB, a defensive coach that is scheming up that team already, and a team that is healthy, for now. You never know how long health lasts with them but for now they have something building. It is kind of funny that they beat the Chiefs, have all this positive momentum, but are still as of this moment in 3rd place in their own division. For the Cowboys, they're just really solid, but more than the offense still being dynamic with Dak, it's the defense playing surprisingly well - particularly in the secondary - that has me really high on them. Diggs has been immense, but the whole secondary has been solid (aside from covering Tight Ends....). The Packers are just good and that week one game just seems like an aberration. Most impressive part to me of the Packers is the state of their defense these last two games. They hounded Garappolo all game, despite not having Zadarius Smith. The secondary play was great as well in a tough environment where basically everything was getting called for pass interference.

Tier 3d - The "Our reputation precedes us" Duo

3.) Baltimore Ravens = 2-1 (82-85)
2.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 2-1 (103-88)

The Ravens were coming off a really emotional win on the road against a bad team and sleepwalked and still won. Granted, they should have lost, but they also controlled the line of scrimmage all game, and if not for some Hollywood Brown drops would have won rather easily. Lamar looked great as a passer in teh game. They have to hope the defensive guys in teh secondary come back healthy. Speaking of needing defensive players to return from injury, the Bucs defense has been sorely lacking so far. Even in their first two wins they were undressed at points. The offense is still great (I hate admiting this...) but the one hidden story of the Bucs run last year was how healthy they were. That's already being put to the test.

Tier 3e - The "Week 1 was a long time ago..." Uno

1.) Buffalo Bills = 2-1 (94-44)

Every year there's some strange week 1 outcome that immediately makes us question pre-existing beliefs, and every year there's a few of those that are just that = week 1 overreactions. This is one of those. The Bills didn't even play that badly against Pittsburgh and probably win if not for the blocked punt TD. They have now undressed two teams, including one on the road with Miami. Allen looked great including throwing to people not named Stefon Diggs. Their run game is still very average but the rest of the team is playing great right now.

Ranking the 3-0 Teams:

Tier 4a - The "Insanely Fun" Duo

5.) Las Vegas Raiders = 3-0 (90-72)

4.) Arizona Cardinals = 3-0 (103-65)

I may be underrating both of these teams, especially Arizona. The Raiders easily could have lost two of the games but also controlled Miami for 95% of that matchup. The defense has been a revelation with their pass rush but you have to think that falls off against better competition. The Cardinals defense has some way to go against better offenses (as seen by their performance against the Vikings) and the offense is still a but boom or bust, but that team is still running strong at 3-0. I don't think either team is long for the undefeated (read: maybe this week) but I do think both are playoff team caliber, especially in a 14-team playoff field. All I do know are both teams are really fun to watch and it would be incredibly entertaining if they played each other (they don't....).

Tier 4b - The "Is it good defense or bad offense...." Duo

3.) Carolina Panthers = 3-0 (69-30)
2.) Denver Broncos = 3-0 (76-26)

How do you rate a defense when both teams have played the Jets? How do you rate it further when Denver's other games are against the Giants and Jaguars (yes, the Broncos are 3-0 against three 0-3 teams), and for the Panthers it was bad Jameis and David Mills? I have no idea. Both defenses have fronts that have been insanely fast and have the talent that they should back that up for most of the season. The offenses should reliably score 20 points. The quality of opponent will increase greatly but the Panthers and Broncos have done what they're supposed to do: easily beat bad teams.

Tier 4c - The "I guess he was right about Stafford..." Uno

1.) Los Angeles Rams = 3-0 (95-62)

I'll admit, I was somewhat skeptical of the idea that Matt Stafford would get unleashed in LA and be a viably different, better version of the Detroit Stafford. We'll see long term but through three weeks he's been everything the Rams could have wanted. More than that though is their OL returning to a high level of play - their pass protection against the Bucs was stunningly good. The defense also has remained quite good without Brandon Staley. Yes, they depend heavily on top talents, but they have those top talents for now and right now they are to me the best team in the league. They get another chance to show it this week against Arizona.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Indianapolis Colts (0-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2) (1:00 - CBS)

15.) Detroit Lions (0-3) @ Chicago Bears (1-2) (1:00 - FOX)

14.) Tennessee Titans (2-1) @ New York Jets (0-3) (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Washington Football Team (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2) (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Really, already so many bad games!" Sunday,

12.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) (TNF - NFLN)

11.) New York Giants (0-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-1) (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Can Burrow or Jameis really go 3-1?" Thursday and Sunday,

10.) Houston Texans (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1) (1:00 - CBS)

9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) @ New England Patriots (1-2) (SNF - NBC)

8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1) (4:25 - CBS)