Tier I - The "Tank for..... who, exactly?" Duo
31.) Detroit Lions = 0-6 (109-172)
Around this time of season I start looking at what the truly worst teams may be in line for in the draft. Well, both of these teams are very well in track for a top pick, but maybe in the worst QB draft in a while seemingly. The Texans I guess do have a QB - but it is shocking how little we hear of Deshaun Watson these days... For the Lions, we hear to much of Jared Goff at the moment, he of the guy living up to everyone's worst opinions of him. What is nice at least is both of these teams have first year head coaches who should get a second season and I actually think have done a reasonable job.
Tier II - The "Ships passing in the night!" Trio
30.) New York Jets = 1-4 (67-121)
29.) Miami Dolphins = 1-5 (99-177)
28.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 1-5 (116-172)
The Dolphins selected Tua #5 overall in 2020. Even after a really poor rookie season at times, the Dolphins went 10-6. They threw away the playoffs but still seemed a team on the rise. The Jets picked Zack Wilson #2 this year, with Trevor Lawrence going #1. The Dolphins are shockingly in as bad shape as the Jets and Jaguars despite having a few years head start. I truly wonder what exactly Brian Flores thinks he's building there. For the Jaguars, they are building around having their Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, but need to get rid of hte useless head coach like those guys were saddled with originally. For the Jets, I still like Wilson, and like Salah, but yes the Jets of it all is still a significant barrier to overcome. Salah really needs an offensive whiz to help out for a bit.
Tier III - The "Dregs of the NFC" Quadro
27.) New York Giants = 1-5 (114-177)
26.) Atlanta Falcons = 2-3 (105-148)
25.) Washington Football Team = 2-4 (136-186)
24.) Philadelphia Eagles = 2-4 (137-152)
25.) Washington Football Team = 2-4 (136-186)
24.) Philadelphia Eagles = 2-4 (137-152)
Putting aside the Lions, the AFC has a lot of the worst teams. The NFC just has a bunch of these fairly middling ones that have a proclivity to getting blown out every now and then. The Giants regression these last two weeks has been disappointing to watch. Jones had been a bright spot until that disaster against the Rams. The Falcons were off but still look like the slightly worse NFC version of the Steelers, putting off the inevitable full tear down. For Washington and Philadelphia, neither is a bad team and both have had tough schedules, but neither does anything too well. Both have fairly easy schedules so a late-season #7 charge could be viable but they'll need more consistency from the surprisingly bad WFT defense, and unsurprisingly highly variable Eagles offense.
Tier IV - The "Good, Bad teams" Quadro
23.) Chicago Bears = 3-3 (98-124)
22.) New England Patriots = 2-4 (125-127)
22.) New England Patriots = 2-4 (125-127)
21.) Seattle Seahawks = 2-4 (140-149)
20.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 3-3 (117-132)
These four have mastered the ability to not get blown out, have enough high-level talent (be it players or coaching) to play good teams tough half the time, and generally mill about towards a 7-10 or 8-9 record. The Bears defense is still legitimately well coached and good but that offense is not sustainable for Fields both running for his life and throwing so poorly on the move so far. The Patriots are bizarrely playing up or down to the level of the competition. The Seahawks are in for a really tough stretch ahead, especially if their defense continues a league worst level of play. The Steelers are the same, with their offense continuing to be a mess. After watching Manning in 2015, I really shouldn't be so surprised at watching Roethlisberger this year. The parallels go even further back, with Roethlisberger's Steelers being among the league's best through ~10-12 games the year prior, just like Manning's Broncos were great through a similar stretch in 2014 before it all came crashing down.
Tier V - The "September was so long ago...." Trio
19.) Denver Broncos = 3-3 (126-110)
18.) San Francisco 49ers = 2-3 (117-119)
17.) Carolina Panthers = 3-3 (145-121)
The Broncos started 3-0, admittedly against a series of teams that were at the time 0-3. The 49ers started 2-0, with wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. The Panthers beat two of the league's worst teams in their start. I don't think either team is as bad as they've shown recently. We still have two of them with a positive point differential, with the 49ers right behind them at '-2'. For the Broncos, the real issue is Bridgewater just does have a ceiling in that offense. Similar with Darnold, but in a different way in his too risky tendencies are coming out in full force the last few weeks. For the 49ers, it is still hard to know. I'll credit Shanahan from buying himself more time even if they finish 7-10 as he tries to build up Trey Lance - that said the defense is only losing players and getting slightly worse at this point.
Tier VI - The "Bad, Good teams" Duo
16.) Minnesota Vikings = 3-3 (147-137)
15.) Indianapolis Colts = 2-4 (139-131)
15.) Indianapolis Colts = 2-4 (139-131)
The NFC Wild Card race is a gauntlet. The Colts path to winning the AFC South isn't nearly too difficult but they're still behind the curve there - the Titans miracle yesterday helps. I honestly think these are both good teams with a combination of 'normal high-variance play' (Minnesota) and 'tough schedule' (Colts). The Vikings easily could've beaten Arizona, the only team that played them that close. The Colts lost a close game to the Rams and Ravens, two of the series of really good teams this year. I truly think these teams in a vacuum are 10-7 good but are going to find it tough to get there (that said a 7-4 finish for the VIkings doesn't seem to tough.
Tier VII - The "I have no idea?" Duo
14.) Cleveland Browns = 3-3 (156-151)
13.) Tennessee Titans = 4-2 (166-161)
They have nearly identical points scored and points allowed. They both have looked great at times and brutal at others. The Browns defense went from holding the Vikings to 7 in Minnesota to getting demolished back to back weeks - they have really poor pass rush if Myles Garrett is anything but awesome. The Titans of course just beat Buffalo, some luck helped but their offense consistently moved it against the league's best defense so far. Of course, their offense found the Jets a lot tougher to deal with a couple weeks back. Teams like these come around every year, that have a baseline around .500 but can surprise good to great teams and lose to bad ones (granted, Cleveland hasn't lost to a 'bad' team), and these two are prime examples of that.
Tier VIII - The "I really have no idea?!" Trio
12.) Las Vegas Raiders = 4-2 (147-144)
11.) New Orleans Saints = 3-2 (127-91)
11.) New Orleans Saints = 3-2 (127-91)
10.) Cincinnati Bengals = 4-2 (148-111)
I'll say this, the Raiders looked like the good team from weeks 1-3 without Jon Gruden. They also seemed a lot more dynamic, but that may be just the staid performances in the last two games with Gruden. I have no idea how long this bump will last for, but the talent exists there to still win ten games. For the Saints, their defense has to carry them as Winston has not really adjusted to playing in a Payton system. That said, in my mind he would've been a far better fit in the Payton systems from 2006-2012 or so, where the deep ball was still a common element. For the Bengals, more on them in my 'Game of the Week', but this is a good team. If not for some hilariously stupid field goal issues they would be 5-1. Of course, if not for some good field goal luck they would be 2-4 or something. All I do know is Joe Burrow has so much Carson Palmer in him, Chase can be his Ocho Cinco, and the defense is better than expected. Also Zak Taylor may just be a better coach than we thought - weird OT safe play calling aside.
Tier IX - The "Maybe the AFC West Isn't over..." Duo
9.) Kansas City Chiefs = 3-3 (185-176)
8.) Los Angeles Chargers = 4-2 (148-150)
It's weird how quickly a gap in a division can get reduced. The Chargers get hammered, but still have a lot of the look of a great team - including in a win in Kansas City, and yet I don't think anyone would honestly pick them to hold off the Chiefs at this point. The Chiefs remind me of a cross between a late-era Manning team (unstoppable offense, terrible defense) and a late-Patriots-era Brady team (slow start and catches up with some upstart by midseason). For now I'll keep the Chargers ahead, but mostly because I really don't know the Chiefs solution on the defensive side. Really without a trade I don't know what the route there is.
Tier X - The "Just slightly below great" Duo
7.) Dallas Cowboys = 5-1 (205-146)
6.) Los Angeles Rams = 5-1 (179-127)
I have no idea how to rank these two and the next two. I went into the season very worried that the NFC would be a cake-walk for a certain Mr. Brady. Instead, we could see four really nice divisional winners. Admittedly, the Cardinals lead the NFC West, but putting them aside, a divisional around featuring these two and the next two seems exciting. Both these teams are good, with the Rams a higher ceiling defense and the Cowboys a higher ceiling offense. Both have some flaws, be it coaching on the Cowboys side (mostly abhorrent clock management) and average O-Line play (Rams). I like both teams and they've shown an ability to beat good teams and hammer bad ones. I just do worry of how much better they can get to what they are now.
Tier XI - The "Aging I guess isn't a thing...." Duo
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 5-1 (195-144)
4.) Green Bay Packers = 5-1 (144-136)
Both teams are great and what not. The Packers defense is far better than expected, especially while missing one of the Smiths. The Bucs defense has had two decent games while missing like half their secondary. But honestly, let's not bury the lede. In any other sport, if guys like Brady and Rodgers were playing this good in their careers - notably getting way better after a few fallow years (for Rodgers, 2017-2019, and for Brady 2018-19 - and yes, 2018 a Super Bowl season was honestly not that good for Tom), we would start thinking they're on something. It's amazing how little scrutiny these two, or even Brees or Rivers or Peyton, got.
Tier XII - The "America's Teams" Trio
3.) Buffalo Bills = 4-2 (203-98)
2.) Baltimore Ravens = 5-1 (170-123)
1.) Arizona Cardinals = 6-0 (194-109)
Screw it, I still think the Bills are among the league's best, despite dropping that game. I personally felt they controlled that game from start to finish. It was a bit disheartening to see their pass rush held at bay against a very good OL, but I somewhat chalk that up to having to play two straight road primetime games. The fact that they won easily in one of them and came a Josh Allen slip from winning the other says a lot. For the Ravens and Cardinals, the fact they won their games so easly against two good teams (that also played each other the week prior) also says a lot. Both of these two are just humming at the moment and are so well rounded they can overcome mistakes like Lamara's interception. I do worry slightly on the Ravens defense inconsistency, but the offense is super consistent so far, and the Cardinals offense is doing a great 2019 Ravens impression. That would be a fascinating Super Bowl, as would Bills vs. Cardinals. And one last point on me putting the 2-loss Bills here - they have a bye coming up but look at the schedule ahead of that - there some blowouts a coming.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Buffalo Bills (4-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3), Dallas Cowboys (5-1), Minnesota Vikings (3-3), Los Angeles Chargers (4-2), Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)
13.) Atlanta Falcons (2-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-5) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) New York Jets (1-5) @ New England Patriots (2-4) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Houston Texans (1-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-0) (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Detroit Lions (0-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (5-1) (4:05 - FOX)
9.) Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ New York Giants (1-5) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-2) (4:05 - FOX)
9.) Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ New York Giants (1-5) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-2) (4:05 - FOX)
7.) Chicago Bears (3-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) (4:25 - CBS)
6.) New Orleans Saints (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-4) @ (MNF - ESPN)
5.) Washington Football Team (2-4) @ Green Bay Packers (5-1) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Denver Broncos (3-3) @ Cleveland Browns (3-3) (TNF - NFLN)
3.) Indianapolis Colts (2-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-3) (SNF - NBC)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) @ Tennessee Titans (4-2) (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-1) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) New Orleans Saints (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-4) @ (MNF - ESPN)
5.) Washington Football Team (2-4) @ Green Bay Packers (5-1) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Denver Broncos (3-3) @ Cleveland Browns (3-3) (TNF - NFLN)
3.) Indianapolis Colts (2-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-3) (SNF - NBC)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) @ Tennessee Titans (4-2) (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-1) (1:00 - CBS)
