Lounging Pass: NFL 2020: Week 11 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Dreaming of Trevor" Duo

32.) New York Jets = 0-9 (121-268)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 1-8 (199-271)

Neither of these two teams is any good, and both nicely lost close games in their last time out. Both are squarely in the tanking for Trevor Lawrence mode at the moment - with the Jets able to do it right before needing to pick up a 5th year option for Sam Darnold that will be not picked up at the soonest possible moment. For the Jaguars too, Minshew-Mania was cute and all, but they need a real QB to have a chance. Fr both teams, the chance to have a real top-flight QB would be franchise-altering - but you have to worry the few times either team dipped their toe in the top of the 1st round pool it went off the rails quick (Sanchez, Darnold for the Jets; Bortles for the Jags)

Tier II - The "Well, we're settled at QB, right?" Trio

30.) Cincinnati Bengals = 2-6-1 (204-250)
29.) Dallas Cowboys = 2-7 (204-290)

28.) Houston Texans = 2-7 (200-252)

None of these three teams are outright awful (assuming the Cowboys under Garrett Gilbert are somewhat able to hold their form) - at least compared to the two below them. The Bengals mainly need an OL and a rebuilt defense, but I trust in a future of Joe Burrow. The Cowboys still have the question around Dak, but this is shaping up as a repeat of 2015 - a 4-12 season that sandwhiched 12-4 and 13-3 seasons. Of course that isn't the case if they let Dak go. For the Texans this too is a right off. What is really threatening for them is the potential usurption of the franchise under the control of Jack Easterby, someone too loony for Belichick but is Baby Billying his way to control in Houston apparently. With Watson there still is a whole lot of potential but they have a chance to get out of the mess the O'Brien era left them in, and they are not starting on teh right path for that.

Tier III - The "Well, we're not settled at QB, right?" Duo

27.) Washington Football Team = 2-7 (180-218)

26.) Denver Broncos = 3-6 (186-254)

So these two teams probably have QB decisions to make. Drew Lock is just in year 2 (as is Dwayne Haskins, I guess) but was so bad last week against the Raiders it begs the question if he will never truly get better. Certainly both teams have to look hard at QB decisions this offseason - weather it is taking risks on a Darnold resurrection, or the draft. For the Football Team though, there is still a chance at the playoffs so they could argue they have bigger things to worry about but that seems so far away at this point.

Tier IV - The "Half Alive Sleepers" Quadro

25.) New York Giants = 3-7 (195-236)
24.) Carolina Panthers = 3-7 (233-272)
23.) San Francisco 49ers = 4-6 (238-234)

22.) Los Angeles Chargers = 2-7 (226-245)

Again other than the Giants, with their NFC East benefit, none of these teams are playoff contenders but are all alive enough to play a close games. The Giants are a few turns away from actually being quite a bit better - close loses to the Steelers, Bears and Buccaneers - all three games turning on Daniel Jones turnovers. If he can solve that issue, the rest of the team is actually fairly decent around him. For the Panthers, their defense has really regressed as the season has gone on, and needs a lot of investment to bring it back. The 49ers are still having an unfortunate season from hell - the real decisions are anyway this offseason around their QB spot. For the Chargers, they may be having the most optimistic, fun 5-11 season ever. This season is terrible in terms of outcome, but Herbert looks like a solid long term starter, there is still talent across this lineup, and they'll end up with a good pick out of it.

Tier V - The "Soft underbelly of the NFC" Trio

21.) Philadelphia Eagles = 3-5-1 (203-232)
20.) Atlanta Falcons = 3-6 (243-251)
19.) Detroit Lions = 4-5 (227-267)

The NFC has a lot of middling teams - these three define that. All three are good enough to pull of random wins (and again, the Eagles could still host a playoff game). The Falcons offense has still had great games - easily they could be the decider in who wins the NFC South between the Bucs and Saints. The Lions are not a good team, but they've already beaten the Cardinals and can pick off a top team again. All three have questions on the QB. For teh Falcons and Lions there is enough rumbling you expect one of the two to leave their respective long term homes. For the Eagles, you get the feeling they woudl look to do that with Wentz if they could - though I still reamain firm it is amazing how little the Eagles have given Wentz to work with - somewhat due to poor injury luck - since 2018.

Tier VI - The "Ships passing in the night" Quadro

18.) Chicago Bears = 5-5 (191-209)
17.) Cleveland Browns = 6-3 (216-244)

16.) Minnesota Vikings = 4-5 (236-247)
15.) New England Patriots = 4-5 (189-211)

The Bears and Browns started fast (technically, the Browns still are a fast-starter). But injuries and reduction in play of defenses adn running games are starting to expose issues at the QB position. On the other side, the Vikings and Patriots started slow but the rest of the team is starting to play better. For teh Vikings, it is their defense that was atrocious at the start slowly working in their new secondary players, coupled with a pass rush that is getting more aggressive as it gets more trusting of its DBs. For the Patriots, it is an OL coming together, and the growth of Jacoby Meyers as Newton's favorite target. Both might be too far off the pace in a normal season, but with three wild cards, both have reasonable shots of sneaking in if they can pull off a few wins against the weaker parts of their schedules.

Tier VII - The "Maybe they're real!?" Trio

14.) Tennessee Titans = 6-3 (249-235)
13.) Las Vegas Raiders = 6-3 (255-241)
12.) Miami Dolphins = 6-3 (251-182)

The AFC is a bizarre conference, with a 9-0 team, an 8-1 team, and then six different 3-loss teams. These are teh ones to me that I can foresee one of the two completely dropping off, one going 11-5 or so, and then one going about 9-7 or so and squeaking into the playoffs. Hard to predict which will be which. The Dolphins have a shockingly good point differential, though thats largely based on unsustainable defensive and special teams returns. The Raiders defense is still atrocious, but their offense is good enough at ball control to shorten games. For the Titans, it defintiely seems like their 5-0 honeymoon is over - a lot of that due to injures and a smoke and mirrors defense getting old, but Tannehill and Henry are good enough. If I guess, the Titans fall off, the Dolphins go 9-7 or so, and the Raiders ride an easy schedule to 11-5.

Tier VIII - The "Great NFC West Battle... for 2nd place?" Duo

11.) Seattle Seahawks = 6-3 (290-266)

10.) Arizona Cardinals = 6-3 (266-210)

They play this Thursday (quick preview of the next section - the primetime games are GREAT this week), and man if it is anything like the last game they played we are in for something beautiful. That game was the turning point of the season for Russell Wilson, who's doing a great Drew Brees circa 2012 impression these last few weeks (or Phil Rivers). For the Seahawks, it isn't just Wilson, but a defense that is not getting any better, that I can't get over with them ahead of the Cardinals who have shown an ability to win games they play poorly in, with an offense that is a bit more multi-dimensional than 'have Wilson do some shit.'

Tier IX - The "Let's just hang on!" Duo

9.) Buffalo Bills = 7-3 (272-265)
8.) New Orleans Saints = 7-2 (271-213)

Both of these teams are in turbulent times. Obviously the Saints have it a bit more acutely with Brees out for some amoutn of games. Winston is a decent backuip but he gives the Saints risks in the one place Brees hasn't for a long time - turnovers. Last year they excelled when Brees was out but that was with a perfect QB when trying to play low-risk football and let a talented roster take over. For the Bills, it is a defense that still hasn't risen up to close to their level last year. The oddest failing is the sudden drop-off in pass rush, something that Sean McDermott has rarely faced. You trust him to be able to manage it over time but ten weeks is a decent sample size. It is so weird to be at this stage and have full trust in their offense and Josh Allen but little on the otehr side. How quickly things change.

Tier X - The "Just solid teams" Trio

7.) Los Angeles Rams = 6-3 (216-168)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 7-3 (296-226)

5.) Indianapolis Colts = 6-3 (242-177)

The top-end of the league this season just has a lot of very good teams this year. These three are all solid on offense and defense, and are showing signs of 12-4 potential. The Rams are still a little unpredictable given how much of their early success was getting the four NFC East teams. That said, their defense is fairly undeniable at this point, and Goff with leads is fine. The Bucs are so tough to read since I don't know if any team has mixed so many poor performances with great ones. The defense still hasn't been great since Vea went down - one half against the Panthers doesn't change that. For the Colts, they've been a steady good so far, and I think there is the most confidence - but that confidence is a mix of a high floor with probably the lowest ceiling of the three.

Tier XI - The "Let's not overreact!" Uno

4.) Baltimore Ravens = 6-3 (244-165)

Do you know who the Ravens remind me of? So many teams in the last 15 years or so that had great regular seasons one year, lost early in the playoffs, came back and had "middling" seasons and then in the end were fine. Be it the 2005 Steelers, 2006 Colts, 2012 Ravens, or even the 2019 Chiefs. People are overreacting, dissecting an offense that isn't a world-beater but still fairly good, and a defense that has remained great. They still have an efficient offense. My worry is the injuries on offense - particularly to the OL and now top blockign TE, hamper them. That said, this is the script so many have faced - and a 'down' year still looks to be 11-5 with a 433-293 point differential.

Tier XII - The "Flawed but Great" Duo

3.) Green Bay Packers = 7-2 (277-224)

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 9-0 (271-171)

Aside from my team at #1, to me these two have the highest ceiling of any team (maybe you can argue the Cubs). The Packers have it with the highest ceiling offense. Aside from that windy disaster against Jacksonville and the dreadful game against Tampa, this has been one of the most efficient, consistent offenses in a while - maybe second or third in Rodgers career behind 2011 and 2014. They are finally healthy and have such high upside. For the Steelers, it is the defense, with an offense that can score 30 fairly easily. What could hurt them at some point is their abject inability to run the ball, but Roethlisberger's quick offense has picked it up as a quasi-run game anyway.

Tier XIII - The "Are we sleeping on the Champs?" Uno

1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 8-1 (286-183)

They are still the best - but somehow under the radar. Mahomes isn't, he of the 25 TDs and 1 INT. Aside from teh low INT number he actually has been no better than either of the past two seasons, but that still leaves him as the best QB in football in an offense perfect for him. What is more under the radar is the strength and consistency of the defense. It doesn't always show in the numbers as Spagnuolo has a proclivity to get blitz happy which gives up some big plays, but they're also coasting to some degree. Starting this week with teh revenge game against the Raiders, the Chiefs have the chance to have a pretty special 2020 season.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Buffalo Bills (7-3), Chicago Bears (5-5), New York Giants (3-7), San Francisco 49ers (4-6)

14.) New York Jets (0-9) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-7) (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) @ Washington Football Team (2-7) (1:00 - CBS)

12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) (4:05 - CBS)

11.) Dallas Cowboys (2-7) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-5) (4:25 - FOX)

10.) Miami Dolphins (2-7) @ Denver Broncos (3-6) (4:05 - CBS)

9.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) @ Cleveland Browns (6-3) (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Detroit Lions (4-5) @ Carolina Panthers (3-7) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) New England Patriots (4-5) @ Houston Texans (2-7) (1:00 - CBS)

6.) Atlanta Falcons (3-6) @ New Orleans Saints (7-2) (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Tennessee Titans (6-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-3) (1:00 - CBS)

4.) Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders (6-3) (SNF - NBC)