Tier I - The "Tanking for Trevor" Trio
31.) Dallas Cowboys = 2-7 (204-290)
30.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 1-7 (179-247)
I'm throwing the Cowboys into the Tank for Trevor category because with Dak an impending Free Agent, I can easily see Jones go ga-ga for Trevor Lawrence (or Justin Fields), especially as the Cowboys look so headed for 3-13. The Jags seemingly are better than their record, but it is funny the team we all that was closest to tanking before the season went out and won their first game and then lost all their next games. The Jets are so laughably bad that their close loss to New England says a lot more about New England. Gase is defintiely DOA - I'm starting to think Darnold is too more for his durability concerns than play at this point.
Tier II - The"Just Hang In There" Quinto
29.) Denver Broncos = 3-5 (174-217)
28.) Cincinnati Bengals = 2-5-1 (194-214)
27.) Washington Football Team = 2-6 (153-188)
26.) Houston Texans = 2-6 (193-242)
25.) New York Giants = 2-7 (168-219)
Ok, there's a lot of below-mediocre but not purely bad teams (and yes, I'm including the Giants in this - a team whose only wins came against one of the other teams in the group). The Broncos haven't really gotten any better with Drew Lock returning but I still somewhat believe in him long term and that defense is still fairly talented. The Bengals, I definitely believe in Joe Burrow, who just needs help. Some of the younger weapons are decent around him but the OL is a mess. The Football Team needs a QB, but the defense also needs to be more consistent game to game. The Texans still have some talent but man they need some solidarity in their leadership. The Giants have lost a slew of close games. Daniel Jones's turnovers are a problem but aside from that I do think they are building a decent core. OL is a problem there as well. To be honest OL concerns is the common theme across all these teams.
Tier III - The "Is it Time to Cut Bait" Duo
24.) Detroit Lions = 3-5 (197-240)
23.) Atlanta Falcons = 3-6 (243-251)
The Lions drafted Matthew Stafford in 2009. The Falcons drafted Matt Ryan in 2008. Somehow Stafford is three years younger than Ryan, but both Matts have been there for a decade-plus now. Both are fine QBs, capable of winning a reasonable amount of games with drek around them, and even 10-11 games with good talent around them. The Lions and Falcons are far away from having good talent around them. At some point both teams need to rebuild, and I'm curious if either pull the trigger this offseason. It will take a lot of mental fortitude to do so, and may incur a big cap penalty, but 13 or 12 years is a long time to have let this run.
Tier IV - The "Honestly, it's Sad" Uno
22.) New England Patriots = 3-5 (166-194)
Yeah, them being excited for beating an 0-8 and laughably bad Jets team with a 51-yard field goal at the gun is not what I expected 2020 Patriots to be about. The Patriots are going through such a turn now with injuries, and opt-outs. Cam is fighting for his life with less to throw to than Brady had last year. The defense has fallen off a complete cliff which I have to admit is a bit shocking. Unless we get SuperCam this team is done and the playoff streak is over easily.
Tier V - The "Man, 2021 could be Fun" Trio
21.) Los Angeles Chargers = 2-6 (205-216)
20.) Carolina Panthers = 3-6 (210-216)
19.) San Francisco 49ers = 4-5 (225-207)
20.) Carolina Panthers = 3-6 (210-216)
19.) San Francisco 49ers = 4-5 (225-207)
All three teams are likely not playoff bound in 2020, the Chargers and Panthers having lost a lot of razor close games, and the 49ers having lost just everyone on their team. That said, both teams are still well positioned for next season. Specifically hte Chargers - assuming Herbert maintains this level of play going forward. Herbert has been great, and the team has been good, but they've somehow managed to blow game after game. What it really reminds me of in a way is the 2016 Eagles, a very talented team that lost a slew of close games but put it together in Year 2. For the Panthers and 49ers, there are larger question marks given the long-term viability questions around Bridgewater and Garoppolo, but the rest of those teams are talented and still fairly young. If there are any teams worth following despite their sub-500 record and completely blocked playoff prospects, these are the three.
Tier VI - The "The Ceiling is the Floor" Duo
17.) Cleveland Browns = 5-3 (206-237)
In a normal season, I doubt these two are normal playoff competitors. However, with the presence of an extra Wild Card spot, and because of how up-and-down this season seems like, they both have a chance. The Bears need their defense to overplay itself to have a chance now that Nick Foles is no longer overcoming the woeful OL. For the Browns, it isn't the OL, it is a combination of Mayfield needing to be more consistent, and their offense fidning ways to stay ahead without Odell Beckham, Jr. The defense's talent is woefully underperforming as well aside from Myles Garrett. That team being on pace to give up 474 points - even counting this being an abnormal scoring year - is shocking.
Tier VII - The "Maybe it's not Too Late" Duo
15.) Minnesota Vikings = 3-5 (217-234)
I probably shouldn't have the Eagles in this spot as they are the likely NFC East winner at this point. Then again, have you seen their schedule? They get to at least 5 wins just playing out the NFC East string, but if they win the division at 5-10-1 I actually do think we get reform on division winners being at lesat guaranteed a home game. The Vikings are likely not playoff competitors, but their schedule gets notably easier the second half of the seaosn. A 9-7 finish is not out of the question at all for a team whose defense is getting better game after game. A team starting 1-5 and making the playoffs isn't even that notable - with the Colts doing it just two years ago. Chances are each team is what it is - the Vikings destined for 8-8, and the Eagles destined to be the most laughable division winner ever.
Tier VIII - The "Fun, Flawed Contenders" Quadro
14.) Miami Dolphins = 5-3 (222-161)
13.) Arizona Cardinals = 5-3 (234-180)
12.) Las Vegas Raiders = 5-3 (218-229)
11.) Tennessee Titans = 6-2 (232-201)
13.) Arizona Cardinals = 5-3 (234-180)
12.) Las Vegas Raiders = 5-3 (218-229)
11.) Tennessee Titans = 6-2 (232-201)
There's a lot of teams with two or three losses - in my memory it seems like there are more than normal (have no idea if that is true). These four to me are all combinations of high-variance, potential great games but also potential blowouts too. The Dolphins point differential is surprisingly good but its being weighted up by that weird 49ers blowout and a slew of return TDs. The Raiders probably have the highest floor of these teams because their offense is basically 'high-floor' in a bottom and can shorten games enough for the defensive deficiencies to not matter as much. The Titans have the highest ceiling but their smoke and mirrors defense is largely getting exposed this year with their glaring lack of pass rush when they don't blitz.
Tier IX - The "Fun, Less Flawed Contenders" Quadro
10.) Seattle Seahawks = 6-2 (274-243)
9.) Los Angeles Rams = 5-3 (193-152)
8.) Buffalo Bills = 7-2 (242-233)
7.) Green Bay Packers = 6-2 (253-204)
Here we have two high ceiling teams in Seattle and Green Bay, who've shown they can be blown out (and I would call Seattle's loss to the Bills a blowout), and two high-floor teams in the Rams and Bills, both of whom have been picked off by worse teams on their down days. All four teams should make the playoffs at this point - though with the rams the fact they are 1-3 outside the NFC does scare me. The defense that Brandon Staley has built is quite commendable however. The Packers defense getting this much worse is a bit mysterious, espeically with a good unit on paper. The Seahawks are just a disaster on that side of the ball, and they'll need to improve their turnover rate to keep this up. The Wilson offense alone however should get them to 10 wins anyway. The Bills are an interesting team on how quickly they've flipped to an offense first juggernaut. Their dropoff on defense is even stranger than the Patriots. There's games like last week where they did a great job on one of the best offenses for 30 minutes, but those runs of great play are too short and too infrequent.
Tier X - The "Old Man QB, Pt. 1" Duo
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 6-3 (250-203)
5.) Indianapolis Colts = 5-3 (208-160)
My next four teams had QBs drafted in 2000, 2004, 2004 and 2001. Yeah, I don't get it either (let's remember in that last batch was a guy drafted in 2005). They're at all various levels of success. The Bucs have had good play but Brady's play under pressure is still incredibly worrisome, especially if their OL is the way it was the last two games. Their defense hasn't been the same against the run since Vita Vea went out. For the Colts, Rivers stats were mostly fine until that awful game against the Ravens. Their defense is stout, and consistent but the offense needs some jump - especially if TY Hilton doesn't come back to life. The Colts and Bucs are both defense first teams with good upside on offense - if anything I think the Colts floor is higher, mainyl because their OL is better,
Tier XI - The "Old Man QB, Pt. 2" Duo
4.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 8-0 (235-161)
3.) New Orleans Saints = 6-2 (244-200)
And now we get the other two old QBs, who personally I think are playing better. There's been a lot of talk about Roethlisberger not throwing deep, but to me that's a factor of him throwing quick. They've made a concerted effort to throw quick and it has mostly worked. The defense is still very good. Yes, it is troubling they've had challenges putting away bad teams (be it even the Giants all the way back in Week 1) but 8-0 without playing their best in many games says a lot. For the Saints, this isn't so much about trusting Brees has effectively come back to life, but rather their defense has. With Davenport back and Marcus Williams and Marshon Lattimore playing at level again, that defense can be the unit that was so good last year. Their offense isn't really any worse than it was in 2019 - their defense just needed to catch up to that level.
Tier XII - The "Back in the Saddle Again" Duo
2.) Baltimore Ravens = 6-2 (227-142)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 8-1 (286-183)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 8-1 (286-183)
Yeah, I still think these are the two best teams - even if the Ravens are very much behind the curve for even winning their division. The Ravens have a great point differential, with a great defense, despite their offense not nearly being as good this year. I don't think there is anything structurally wrong with them aside from a higher than normal turnover rate - see their game against the Steelers which they easily should have won until their turnovers. For the Chiefs, well what is to say. They played a 'C' game against a decent team and won. Mahomes is quietly having a stupid good season. The defense has remained strong throughout even with a few injuires starting to arise. The Chiefs are the league's best team, and truly in my mind it isn't really that close at the moment.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: New York Jets (0-9), Dallas Cowboys (2-7), Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)., Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
14.) Washington Football Team (2-6) @ Detroit Lions (3-5) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Houston Texans (2-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-3) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) @ Green Bay Packers (6-2) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0) (4:25 - FOX)
10.) Minnesota Vikings (3-6) @ Chicago Bears (5-4) (MNF - ESPN)
9.) Baltimore Ravens (6-2) @ New England Patriots (3-5) (SNF - NBC)
9.) Baltimore Ravens (6-2) @ New England Patriots (3-5) (SNF - NBC)
8.) Los Angeles Chargers (2-6) @ Miami Dolphins (5-3) (4:05 - CBS)
7.) Denver Broncos (3-5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-3) (4:05 - CBS)
6.) San Francisco 49ers (4-5) @ New Orleans Saints (6-2) (4:25 - FOX)
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) @ Carolina Panthers (3-6) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) @ New York Giants (2-7) (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Buffalo Bills (7-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-3) (4:05 - CBS)
6.) San Francisco 49ers (4-5) @ New Orleans Saints (6-2) (4:25 - FOX)
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) @ Carolina Panthers (3-6) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) @ New York Giants (2-7) (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Buffalo Bills (7-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-3) (4:05 - CBS)
2.) Seattle Seahawks (6-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (5-3) (4:25 - FOX)
1.) Indianapolis Colts (5-3) @ Tennessee Titans (6-2) (TNF - FOX)
1.) Indianapolis Colts (5-3) @ Tennessee Titans (6-2) (TNF - FOX)
