My Top-20 TV Shows of 2020, #10-6

 10.) Schitt's Creek, S6 (NETFLIX)

I remember watching a few episodes of Schitt's Creek Season 1 years ago and found it fairly routine at the time. Then after all the plaudits it got this year, and having a lot more time on my hands, I picked it up and binged it over the course of a couple months. While the show was great for years, it was something special in its final season, centered around David's wedding. For a show that never really focused on significant plot (not a criticism), it deftly focused on a lot of plot here - the expanding of Rosebud Motel and with it turning Stevie into a businesswoman was well done. Alex's emotional end with Ted was far more emotional than I ever would have guessed given where they came from. And of course the wedding, and ultimately David's decision to stay in the town, was just a beautiful way for it to end. The show remained funny through all of this - the interplay between basically every combination of characters was so finely tuned by this point - but I was stunned how well this show, which strayed so often into the absurd (again, in no way a criticism), was able to bring it all together.

9.) The Queen's Gambit

The last scripted NETFLIX show that seemed to have this type of sudden buzz was arguably Stranger Things, though I easily could be missing something in between. Anyway, The Queen's Gambit got a whole lot of hype and way more often than not it fully, fully delivered on that. Ana Taylor-Joy was brilliant as Beth, more believable as a 15-year old than you would think, and certainly amazing as an adult Beth. The chess world was littered well with great characters from her competing rivals, Townes the reporter, and even the Soviets who played large roles in teh series end. At its heart, it was a coming-of-age story mixed with one trying to analyze the complex minds of prodigies and geniuses. The story got far more introspective than you would think given its light and fun tone throughout. My only real quibble is the story gave a bit of a short shrift to child Beth's life in the orphanage aside from her relationship with Mr. Sheibel, but even then the series and story came to full life when she gets adopted and lives her fullest life. Just a great series and one that while I'm sure NETFLIX will not be able to avoid bringing it back, its life as a mini-series was fairly close to perfect.

8.) Better Call Saul, S5 (AMC)

In some ways, the latest season of Better Call Saul finally ripped the band-aid off and brought the two halves of the show - the "Saul" half and the "Mike" half - together, especially with their escapade in the desert. In other ways, the more interesting parts of the season was things happening outside of our central two 'leads'. Seeing Kim repeatedly be unable to detach herself from Saul, from a life spiraling towards insanity, was a surprising turn but such a brilliant one - especially with her outcome being the largest question mark on how this ties into the Breaking Bad story. Then everything with Lalo was just so much fun - including his escape from the Cartel bosses home towards the end of the season, realizing Nacho (and his friends in USA) had set him up, leads to a fantastic potential scenario in the series end game. I've always been a little down on the show compared to general consensus since I found it has slightly less heart and emotional pull as Breaking Bad - while still retaining all technical brilliance - but this season came closest, and definitely sets up a great end game. The acting, directing, photography is all still close to peerless, with Vince Gilligan showing again and again he is a technical master of the medium. What they were able to show this season was from an emotional, captivating perspective, he can still throw it 100 as well.

7.) Babylon Berlin, S3 (NETFLIX)

This was my #2 show in 2018, and while a drop of five spots can be put up to real areas I think this season was slightly worse, it also shows just how good the cocktail of acting, directing, writing and plot is that in what was certainly a bridge season (there will be a S4), as it largely sets up a Season 4 that will dive even more head on to the rise of the Nationalist movement as a truly open political force with the backdrop of the Great Depression. The central plot of the season, figuring out the string of murders of starlets, was interesting and kept the show focused, but shows like these are always more interesting on some of their side plots. The co-winners for me this season were everything involving Edgar as an underwold boss, and then Nyssen's activities trying to convince anyone to buy into his scheme that the world economy was a house of cards. The show was able to also turn the page easily from losing Benda as a central figure, replacing him admirably by Wendt as a bigger, more politically powerful big bad - again someone who should have a central role in the series next installment. The show was more overly plot driven, and focused on pushing forward this time around, but the few moments the show took a step back to enjoy the amazing setting it finds itself in (Weimer-era Germany is a fascinating place) are still every bit as fun as before - even if there was no Mokta Efti equivalent of a setting. Still, this is an incredibly well made show that I'm glad gets enough publicity outside of the US to keep on making it.

6.) Bojack Horseman, S6.2 (NETFLIX)

Unsurprisingly, the final season of Bojack Horseman leaned almost fully into the drama side of this dramedy (a word that sullies Bojack, but explains its makeup well). Not that it wasn't funny - the general conceit of the show coupled with the creators desperate attention to detail in creating their world means there's a baseline of comedy that will never leave. The show did well in its final season givng each character and each story arc a conclusion that just made sense - all across the board, be it Todd finally growing up and confronting his parents, Diane's emotional journey and growth, Princess Carolyn's finding peace, and Bojack finally re-accepting that he has a negative impact on people's lives. Yes, it all seems a bit depressing, but ultimately the show's throughline is how tough and troubled the world is even for people you think have it all. Admittedly, this is a bit of a legacy pick to have it this high up. Bojack Horseman ended its run at the perfect time, still at its apex, and I think it still retains its spot as the best fully-streaming original series. It went from being the funniest show on TV (probably Season 3-4), to one of the most emotional and interesting (S5-6), without ever losing its charm, focus and identity. What a run.

My Top 20 TV Shows of 2020: #15-11

 15.) Curb Your Enthusiasm, S11 (HBO)

After sitting in mothballs since 2011, Curb was resurrected in 2017 for a season that felt a bit aimless. At that point I didn't really want it to come back, but Larry did, and he brought with him a spite store and spite for all the people that felt he was over it. The Spite Store concept was brilliant from the beginning, at culminated so brilliantly at the end with the fire - it was Curb on all levels from a season long arc perspective. Some of the individual stories fell flat, but there were enough classified Curb bangers to deserve coming back, be it the carnival weight guesser, the whole idea of an ugly section, any interaction with Ted, and even digging back Kaitlin Olson as Cheryl's sister after all these years. Apparently we aren't done with Curb, and if this past season is an indication, David is still a fount of ideas and comedic brilliance.

14.) How To with Jon Wilson, S1 (HBO)

Nathan Fielder is an executive producer, and while he plays no part in the show itself it is so obvious how much of a 'Nathan For You' hyper-realism vibe this has. The best parts are when we hear John Wilson say something totally inane and they find the perfect shot of a New York City street to back up his perverse world view. The show at times gets a bit too inane, but I love the concept of just letting the story take you every which way, going from a story of 'how to protect your furniture' to somehow winding up talking to people at a 'Mandela Effect' conference. Of course, we do have to talk about that finale, where his search to cook risotto for his landlord ended up being a weird look at Wilson's attempts to quit smoking, and then a weird turn into the impact on coronavirus happening during the show's run, with the mindlessly unnerving scene of him trying to find the end of the line in a NY grocery store, and of course her potential death that comes at the end to only have her return and get that risotto. There's a promising show here and much like Nathan For You before it, I can't wait to see how they look to improve it over time.

13.) Fargo, S4 (FX)

In a vacuum, I found Fargo S4 an improvement over S3, with a tighter story, far better tone, and more memorable characters. However the one thing this season of Fargo did not have as much of as S3 was exciting plot. It was a staid story, but one that was feverishly well told and crafted. 1950s Kansas City was a far more complete, colorfol tapestry than I expected, with the Nurse, the whole Cannon clan, Tim Olyphant's brilliant marshal (stunt casting of the best kind). It balanced a classic mob story with just enough Fargo-esque flair, from the slight hints of mysticism, the two hilariously fun lesbian ex-cons, to the entire black-and-white story. The show was its largest in terms of cast and most complex - not sure these are great things for Fargo to aspire to - but it still managed to tell its story in a uniquely Fargo way.

12.) What We Do in the Shadows, S2 (FX)

The show started dropping new episodes in the heart of the lockdown and was such a bright spot at times, developing a more robust story, a more commanding tone, in its second season. The show about four vampires living in normal life was funny enough, but building the world, with more people slowly getting in on the secret, more history to explore (the various old vampires), more time with the familiars, and with the Craig Robinson, the boredom vampire. Finally, the show's crazy last few episode full of Jackie Daytona's and the return of Nick Kroll's vampire posse showed how deep the show can go even when it goes full bore into comedy. Much like other shows of its ilk, there probably is a diminishing return at some point, but for right now, Laszlo, Nadja and Nandor are so far away from that point.

11.) The Flight Attendant, S1 (HBOMax)

I'll admit, as a frequent flyer I kind of wish this series focused a bit more on the flying aspect. Ok, that's not true - though it is funny how quickly the show gets away from anything to do with flight attendants until brining it back in the finale. Anyway, this Kaley Cuoco vehicle was so damn entertaining. It isn't the tightest story (a lot of it seems thrown together at the end) but the fresh tone, the whip-smart dialogue. It was something of a Veronica Mars like model, combined with a strangely poignant look at addiction, loss and depression. The finale also deftly closed a story, but set the seeds for a few more interesting ones, revealing one of the flight attendants to be a CIA undercover agent and the potential for Cassie to find herself in that role as well. On pure entertainment, combined with an extremely well crafted and engaging plot, The Flight Attendant really surprised me on how great I found it, a show that ended up being effective at its most plot heavy and plot light moments.

My Top-20 TV Shows of 2020: #20-16

Before we start the list - as always a quick run down of those that didn't make it in 2020 - sadly this time a lot due to not airing in 2020.

Didn't Air in 2020 - show ended/was a mini-series:

#20 - Big Little Lies (series ended... one would hope)

#14 - Surviving R. Kelly (mini-series)

#12 - Veronica Mars (series ended... one would think)

#11 - When They See Us (mini-series)

#10 - Mindhunter (series ended)

#9 - The Deuce (series ended)

#8 - Veep (series ended)

#3 - Watchmen (mini-series)

#2 - The Loudest Voice (mini-series)

#1 - Chernobyl (mini-series)

Didn't Air in 2020 - production slowed due to COVID-19

#19 - Alternatino

#16 - The Righteous Gemstones

#13 - It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

#7 - Stranger Things (probably wasn't airing in 2020 anyway)

#6 - Pose

#4 - Succession

Wasn't as good in 2020

#18 - The Good Place

#15 - Big Mouth (to be fair, didn't finish it)

If you're playing along, thats a full 18 of our shows from 2019 that won't show up in 2020. The two that do were ranked #17 and #5 last year. That said, there are a few returnees from earlier years that didn't air in 2019, ranked #20, #15, #13, #8, #7 and #5, along with a couple shows that started before 2020 but I didn't watch or have ranked before. Basically, this isn't just a list full of shows that have only aired in 2020 - though I will say despite the pandemic there was a lot of very good TV this year.

20.) Narcos: Mexico, S2 (NETFLIX)

I don't know if this was the last season of Narcos - be it in Mexico or otherwise. It provided closure on an important story, with teh break-up of the Guadalajara Cartel only leading to far more cartel violence. What the show still had was excellent cinematography, and great set pieces being able to showcase incredibly tesnse moments. What it didn't have - or at least at the same level as the Colombia seasons - was the joy and verve. Diego Luna was fantastic, as was a whole cadre of Latin actors, but in the end it was hard for them to elevate a staid story beyond anything but very good.

19.) The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)

I've rarely given these daily news shows a spotlight, but I think with these shows having to hard pivot to remote working, changing up so much of what make them fun, none of them did it with the perfect tenor of joy and meaning as Trevor Noah's Daily Show. They leaned heavy into being in that setting, with more visual cut jokes, and the type of stuff that it is so much harder to do in a studio. What also helped was his ability to talk to the racial and social unrest that enveloped the middle of the year. Noah did so well to speak truth to power, but still do so in a way that balanced levity and introspection. Ive long felt Noah is better at the show than people give him credit for, but the setting of 2020 allowed Noah a larger spotlight and a strangely perfect opportunity to shine.

18.) The Mandalorian, S2 (Disney+)

I get it, there's gonna be a lot of people who would have this way further up their respective lists. And yes, I'll admit even I was turned mad by the sight of de-aged Luke Skywalker showing up in the finale. The show though to me is still not perfectly finding its place between fan service and actionable plot. The characters they've created are mostly great, but one issue I often find myself having is loving the action scenes from a technical brilliance perspective, but not as much from a captivating one. The show will remain a must watch just because every few episodes they are able to turn over a rock and provide something absolutely brilliant

17.) I May Destroy You (HBO)

In terms of shining a light on such a serious topic, I don't know if I've ever seen a show as creative as I May Destroy You. Michaela Coel's show was so good at attacking sexual assault head-on, both from the everlasting trauma, the ways people cope, to the atual act - especially the episode around Coel realizing that her partner that took off his condom without her consent did too rape her. The show was fairly optimistic through it all, and was able to mix a story of female empowerment with such a great dose of life. The show was far funnier that it really had any right to be, and while I didn't pick up all the British-isms (ultimately what hurts the ranking, in my mind), it was so clear this was a show with such clarity and precision.

16.) Perry Mason, S1 (HBO)

I wish this show was better. Now, it was very, very good. Something of a true prequel / origin story for Perry Mason, seeing this bloated, hyper PI turn into something of a trail lawyer, all while fighting 1920s organized religion and crime, was a sight. There is a show with similar inputs in a different language well up the list, but Perry Mason for itself showed itself well. Michael Rhys is just a fantastic actor, and the Lithgow was great as his mentor/boss. The tone was appropriately dark for a more adult look at Perry Mason, and while the show can easily overstay its welcome, I am excited to see where a Season 2 would take it. Not going case of the week style was interesting, but I like the idea of a season being a full novel a whole lot better.

NFL 2020: Week 16 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier A-I - The "Tanking for Trevor" Duo

16.) New York Jets  =  1-13  (206-413)

15.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-13  (275-423)

The Jets ridiculous victory is such an awful moment for that franchise. On the one hand - it's nice for them to avoid the infamy of an 0-16 season, but not when it means you don't get the #1 picks. Especially when by absolutely every metric the Jets still are the worst team in the league. They are still being outscored by 2x - still by far the worst offense while also being a bad defense. One victory does not in any way change that. Now, for the Jags, their run to a 15-loss season has an interesting parallel with the 2001 Panthers, the last team to do such a thing. Of course, because it was an expansion season in 2002 those Panthers didn't get the #1 pick. These Jags, the Panthers 1995 expansion teammate, will be likely doing so this time. Just have to hope Lawrence turns the franchise around for them much like Julius Peppers - the Panthers pick in 2002 - did for them.

Tier A-II - The "Next year can't come fast enough!" Quadro

14.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-11-1  (XXX-XXX)

13.) Denver Broncos  =  5-9  (276-395)
12.) Houston Texans  =  4-10  (315-386)
11.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  5-9  (327-389)

All four of these teams have some element of optimism in store for 2021. For three of them, it is their QBs - be it the return of Joe Burrow (who's play looks better week by week when we realize how far they've fallen since he got hurt), and the continuation of Herbert  (rebounded nicely from the Pats disaster) and Watson (still a top-5 QB this year, in reality). For the Broncos, I still have no idea if Drew Lock is a long term solution, but I definitely now getting Von Miller and a few of the other defenders back should give them a bit more defensive foundation to allow Lock to really be evaluated against.

Tier A-III - The "Thanks for Playing" Duo

10.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  7-7  (377-421)
9.) New England Patriots  =  6-8  (289-301)

Two weeks ago, both of these two were deep in the playoff mix, and now they're both essentially eliminated (fully so, in the Pats sense). For the Raiders, in the end the porous defense was just too far to escape. I do hope Carr stays on as the QB - he's certainly earned it but you never know with Gruden. They need to seriously upskill that defense, but that offense should get another year at it. The Patriots on the other hand have a lot more question marks, even when you go outside the QB decision of whether they stick with Newton. The offense is thin everywhere and the defense is a mix of old and questionable talent. It is definitely time to ask the qeustion if this is truly the end of the Patriots run of relevance.

Tier A-IV - The "If only they sneak in!" Duo

8.) Miami Dolphins  =  9-5  (352-257)

7.) Cleveland Browns  =  10-4  (368-374)

These two are a study in opposites. The Dolphins clinging to a playoff spot but a solid +95 in point differential and a top defense by a decent amount of metrics. For the Browns, they are still a -6, but if you take out two awful games they are fine (of course, true of everyone) and their offense has really come on these last few games, adjusting to the loss of Beckham with aplomb. I don't think either of these teams are serious contenders but one, if not both, are likely making the playoffs. They both have holes to fill and draft capital to do so. Suddenly the AFC is looking very, very crowded. If anything, it is already as we are about to have at least one ten win team not make the playoffs despite adding a seventh playoff team.

Tier A-V - The "Prime Wild Card Round contenders" Trio

6.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-4  (436-361)

5.) Baltimore Ravens  =  9-5  (403-287)
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  10-4  (399-320)

Now, I'll preface this by saying there is a good chance one of these three teams doesn't make the playoffs - even if they all end 11-5 (that's right, we might have an 11-5 team miss the playoffs in a 7-team playoff format!). For the sake of teh top three, there's probably a lot of hope that it is the Ravens that miss out. Their seemingly rolling, but a paper-thin schedule may hide still issues in their passing game. For the Titans and Colts, they're opposites in construction but near equal overall abilities. We can't deny the Titans offense at this point, nor the Colts defense. There is a chance we see a Round 3 between those two in Wild Card Weekend which would be spectacular.

Tier A-VI - The "Ships passing in the night" Duo

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  11-3  (366-264)
2.) Buffalo Bills  =  11-3  (407-340)

I'll leave the Steelers in this group for one more week, but more because of the nice dichotomy between these two. For the beginning of the season they were both strong but had clear strong units (Steelers defense, Bills offense), with underachieving ones on teh other side. Sadly for the Steelers, the offense has remained underachieving (if not getting outright worse), and the defense is falling - primarily due to injuries. They've given up a track at a #2 seed, but in this year anyway it wouldn't really matter with the bye being gone. For the Bills, it's been the opposite, with their defense slowly improving and their offense remaining a great unit. At this point, Allen is to be trusted and Diggs is a monster. Sadly for the Bills, the #7 seed seems to be a real live wild card but it's amazing to think how far they've come, and more uniquely how far the Steelers have fallen.

Tier A-VII - The "Why can't they just blow teams out" Uno

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  13-1  (435-310)

The Chiefs will likely finish 15-1 or 14-2. They likely will have one of the lesser point differentials of a team which such a record. The last team at that record that had something approaching the Chiefs +125 (or even the plus +145 or so they're on pace for), was probably the 2009 Colts, who ended at +107, but even they were at +146 after fourteen games. The Chiefs have a habit of giving up a late score to make a multi-score game into a one-score game (see their last four wins), but while this can be seen as an annoying trend, it is also defintieyl worrisome that this great team, a defending champ having the best season of any team in the league, continues to skate by more than they should be.

Ranking the NFC Teams

Tier N-I - The "In any other year we wouldn't be this bad" Trio

16.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-10  (323-356)

15.) Dallas Cowboys  =  5-9  (339-433)

14.) Detroit Lions  =  5-9  (335-435)

The AFC is very stratified, with two teams staring 1-15 in the face, and one looking at 15-1. For the NFC, there is none of that, and while there are a decent amount of teams that will end up with 10+ wins, its amazing that so few are in the path of a poor record. The Panthers are not even that bad of a team, but they alternate week to week which one of their units plays bad enough to lose the game. The firing of Marty Hurney is interesting, though I assume Matt Rhule is safe. For the Cowboys, you have to worry if these little offensive outbursts will give them the very wrong idea that they are fine without Dak. And for the Lions, its a bid sad watching what is almost inevitably the end of the Stafford era. In a way though, it gives everyone a chance for a win-win - the Lions needing a housecleaning, and Stafford being a potential skeleton key for a team.

Tier N-II - The "Man, the bottom of the NFC is a mess" Quadro

13.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  4-9-1  (303-361)
12.) New York Giants  =  5-9  (244-311)

11.) Atlanta Falcons  =  4-10  (355-353)

10.) San Francisco 49ers  =  5-9  (333-352)

Again, because we live in the world of the 2020 NFC East, two of these teams are alive for the playoffs, but one Washington win essentially ends all that. For the Eagles, nothing really matters this point aside from what happens in the offseason with Wentz and Hurts. My guess is there is a very open competition in next year's camp that ultimately Hurts wins and they try to trade Wentz. For the Giants, I still like where this team is going long term, but I will worry about Daniel Jones until he stops turning the ball over so much. For the Falcons and 49ers, they are talented teams but need a lot of direction (Falcons) and health (49ers). For the Falcons, I'll be interested where they go for head coach, and for the 49ers what they do with QB, as no matter how low a ceiling you think Garoppolo has, it is somewhat clear that he's better than Mullens.

Tier N-III - The "NFC North Cycle of Mediocrity" Duo

9.) Minnesota Vikings  =  6-8  (360-388)

8.) Chicago Bears  =  7-7  (315-318)

The Bears have a shot at nabbing the final playoff spot. I don't care. What's more worrying - or intriguing, if we're being optimistic - is what happens with this team around Trubisky. They are 5-2 when he starts, and while he had some poor games early on he's been more than fine these last two weeks that have helped to save the Bears' season. On the other side, the Vikings offense has been decent enough to think they'll remain with Cousins. The problem for both is fighting for a wild cards seem to be the ceiling of either of these teams even next year. That's a problem, and given how much they've invested on non-QB positions, on guys that are somewhat aging, this will be a longer term problem. The only real path forward for the Bears is if somehow Trubisky post-benching had a light turned on. For the Vikings? Well, I'm not quite sure.

Tier N-IV - The "Just happy to be there playoff teams" Duo

7.) Washington Football Team  =  6-8  (302-295)
6.) Arizona Cardinals  =  8-6  (391-329)

The Football Team needs just one win to basically wrap up the NFC East - probably putting Ron Rivera in line for coach of the year. The defense is real, the offense is sloppy and conservative - a truly terrible combination. They'll host a playoff game and likely lose - and then it will be off to see what they do about QB longer term. For the Cards, they in theory have their QB, but slowly I'm starting to wonder how much they have a coach. Kingsbury's offense is awfully hit or miss, and their surprisingly good pass rush has kept them above board. Neither team is likely to go anywhere in the playoffs, but for both there will be interesting questions to answer, with trajectories of each steadily moving upwards.

Tier N-V - The "More than happy to be there" Trio

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  9-5  (401-321)

4.) Seattle Seahawks =  10-4  (413-339)
3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  9-5  (345-269)

Tampa's stirring comeback against Atlanta to me says more about just how absurdly bad Atlanta is at holding leads than the Bucs - what's a bit worrying is how often for long stretches the Bucs can look completely lost. They have an easy two games to end the season and have a clear shot at the #5 seed and that coveted trip to the NFC East team. Why do they have that clear shot? Because the Seahawks and Rams play each other this week - the winner with the clear inside track to the #3 seed (or even #2 if the Saints continue to slip) while the loser either has a 6th loss (Rams) or would lose a tiebreaker with the Bucs (Seattle). For those two teams, its a classic high variance team (Seattle - who's been on the low end for a bit) with a team that seemingly plays a 24-20 game every week. For weeks I was worried about the Rams inability to turn yards and production into points and it came to bite them really badly in this last game. I still trust them long term - one bad game is just a bad game - bit its annoying how much the Rams tend to play up or down to the level of the team.

Tier N-VI - The "2020 version of the 2015 Broncos?" Uno

2.) New Orleans Saints  =  10-4  (397-297)

Throughout that Chiefs v Saints game, I kept thinking that I'd seen this before. I'd seen a great defense (and right now I would absolutely classify the Saints as such) try to keep pace with a great offense with their own offense giving them next to nothing aside from a handful of big plays. I have seen it before - and I saw it win a Super Bowl. Now, the 2015 Broncos defense is better than this Saints unit - but the Saints offense is probably better than that Broncos team. Brees even as he played on Sunday is better in that offense than the deteriorated Manning was in 2015. If Brees can hit a couple deep shots and Kamara can make a few plays (and whatever Taysom Hill can give) they can score the 20-24 points they'll need to win games (Broncos scoring in 2015 playoffs: 23, 20, 24). Now, those Broncos had the ability to play at a raucous home crowd, and the Saints will not get such a luxury, but there are some similarities here - the big question will be do the similarities end now, or continue to Brees riding off into the sunset with a 2nd ring like Manning did.

Tier N-VII - The "Let's stop underrating them please!" Uno

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  11-3  (434-339)

I think a lot of people saw last year's mirage of a 13-3 team and expected the Packers to fall off. The expectation was they wouldn't do so well in 1-score games - and they haven't going just 3-2 in them. What's changed is the Packers stopped playing many one-score games (including the disaster loss to TB). Rodgers is playing well enough I think he may steal the MVP - and you know what? Give it to him. So many people counted him out after the Packers drafted a QB and didn't give him more weapons. What people missed is the young receivers they did draft recently might just get better, the OL is still great, its year two of a new offense, and, of course, Rodgers is one of the most defensive MFers who is very likely to take the drafting of Jordan Love very, very personally. The defense still needs to get better, as past all-Rodgers led teams met their matches in the playoffs - but even that side of the ball is slowly approaching its 2019 form.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  15-1

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  12-4

3.) Indianapolis Colts  =  12-4

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  12-4

6.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-5

7.) Cleveland Browns  =  11-5

5.) Tennessee Titans  = 10-6

NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  13-3

2.) New Orleans Saints  =  12-4

3.) Seattle Seahawks  =  12-4

4.) Washington Football Team  =  7-9

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  11-5

6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  10-6

7.) Arizona Cardinals  =  9-7

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1)  @  Houston Texans (4-10)  (1:00 - FOX)

15.) Denver Broncos (5-9)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)  (4:05 - CBS)

14.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (5-9)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Bad v Bad" Sunday, as these are the only three games with zero playoff implications (yes, in theory the Eagles @ Cowboys game has playoff implications but I'm ignoring that). It will be interesting to see if the Bengals can keep up their defensive success, and then for the other two I feel the loser is going to have to start answering tough questions immedaitely, while the winner is on path to getting 'sleeper in 2021' talk. God forbid if that 'sleeper' is the Cowboys, the least sleeper-y team ever.

13.) Chicago Bears (7-7)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)  (1:00 - CBS)

12.) Cleveland Browns (10-4)  @  New York Jets (1-13)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) New York Giants (5-9)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-5)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "less exciting trap/upset specials" Sunday, as we get three thrown=in 1pm Sunday games that probably pose little challenge to playoff hopefuls. For the Bears and Ravens, they need to hold serve here to realistically have a chance to make the playoffs. For the Ravens, they can still make it with a loss but then need the Dolphins to lose out. For the Bears, a loss all but ends things. I can't see any of the three favorites here losing but man it will throw a lot of cold water on Week 17 if it happens in any of these - especially for the Browns who have a potential NFC North Title Game in Week 17 with Pittsburgh.

10.) Carolina Panthers (4-10)  @  Washington Football Team (6-8)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Rivera's Revenge" Sunday as the Football Team can all but clinch the NFC East (and can clinch it if the Giants lose to Baltimore at 1pm) against the team that let Ron Rivera go. I do understand why the Panthers moved on from Rivera but it would be some sweet poetry for him to lead Washington to a division title against the team that fired him - a team that for better or worse has the worst record in the NFC. I have no idea if the future is bright for Washington, but one year in we know who won the Pnathers/Rivera divorce.

9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)  @  Detroit Lions (5-9)  (SAT - NFLN)

8.) San Francisco 49ers (5-9)  @  Arizona Cardinals (8-6)  (SAT - Amazon!)

7.) Miami Dolphins (9-5)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)  (SAT - NFLN)

I call it "Spoilerific Saturday" as we get a tripleheader that doesn't have any clear good games but has three live spoilers (49ers, Raiders and Lions - admittedly they're a stretch). I have to think, or rather hope, at least one of the spoilers pull the upset here. The most likely bet is probably hte 49ers who have a habit of randomly putting it together. Also it would be nice to have a close game on the first one ever to be exclusively online only (Amazon Prime). For the Raiders, they're out of it but have a chance to ruin another team's season. For the Lions, the same, but also potentially Stafford's last game in Detroit - the end of an era that will remain both susprisinly competent and underwhelming at the same time.

6.) Minnesota Vikings (6-8)  @  New Orleans Saints (10-4)  (FRI - FOX)

5.) Buffalo Bills (11-3)  @  New England Patriots (6-8)  (MNF - ESPN)

4.) Atlanta Falcons (4-10)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "nice tests for playoff locks" Weekend, as we get three games where the better team is locked into a playoff spot, but there are some good questions to answer. For the Saints, can Brees start playing better against a porous defense. For the Bills, can they put the hammer down on New England and also show how they can play against a decent/good team for a second time. For the Chiefs, can their defense tamp down Atlanta, and also can they just blow out a team for once.

3.) Tennessee Titans (10-4)  @  Green Bay Packers (11-3)  (SNF - NBC)

2.) Indianapolis Colts (10-4)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "the great AFC South race" Sunday, as we get the Colts and Titans jockeying for that spot. Both have to go on the road to play 11-3 teams, but suddenly the Colts game seems like an easy play while Tennesee will need the most of Tannehill/Henry to keep up with the Packers. For Green Bay, they get a chance to clince the #1 seed, while the Steelers get a shot at clinching the division and avoiding a game for the division next week against the Browns. The Colts at 11-5 aren't playoff locks so this will be a huge game for them as well.

1.) Los Angeles Rams (9-5)  @  Seattle Seahawks (10-4)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "The Great NFC West Race" Sunday, as this game will be for the division (assuming the Rams, if they win, don't trip up in Week 17). The Rams would be in a much nicer position had they not blown that Jets game. They are still essentially playoff locks but now are staritng a more challenging Wild Card trip with a loss. Of course, with a win they're right back on track. For the Seahawks, this is a great test for their suddenly extremely-shaky offense. The Rams defense, even including last week, is one of hte stronger units and won the matchup battle easily last time around. Week 17 lines up to be fairly interesting, and that will more or less start here for a game that will likely decide the NFC West.

NFL 2020: Week 15 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "True Tankers" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-13  (183-393)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-12  (261-383)

It's fun that these two teams have been the worst two teams basically since Week 4 or so when we realized the Jaguars Week 1 win was something of a mirage. The Jets at this point probably need to go 0-16 to get that #1 seed as the Jags are going to make a great run at 1-15. For the Jets, my biggest curiosity is to see what they get for Sam Darnold in a trade. Can they get a team to give up a 2nd, or is he seen as so broken its just a 4th or so. For the Jags, my offseason wonder is who they can convince to be their head coach if they don't hve the #1 pick. For both teams, these last three weeks are completely meaningless, and given that we've seen two other 0-16 teams in the last twelve years, not even especially notable.

Tier II - The "Almost as bad" Uno

30.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-10-1  (244-338)

The Bengals are better than he Jets or Jaguars, but the Bengals without Joe Burrow might be worse (at least worse than the Jaguars). I think it says a lot about the potential for Joe Burrow that the Bengals seemed somewhat competent when he was the starter. Protection to me still is the biggest need they'll have, as defensively they are average and the weapons are still OK. If they can protect Burrow - especially as he returns from his ACL tear - they could be a darkhorse next year. The other big question will be do you cut bait on Zak Taylor, knowing that Burrow is enough of a sure thing you can probably get a lot of coaches willing to take it on - especially his old college coordinator in Joe Brady (now the Panthers OC).

Tier III - The "Probably too bad to be Spoilers" Trio

29.) Dallas Cowboys  =  4-9  (298-400)

28.) Houston Texans  =  4-9  (295-359)

27.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-9  (307-332)

Around these last three games, you get a decent amount of teams that will just fold up shop. I don't think all three are guaranteed for 4-12 - certainly Watson as a player, and the Panthers as a team, are more talented than that. Still, it's all about 2021 for these three. Primarily around what to do with Prescott for the Cowboys, what to do with everything aside from Watson for the Texans, and just finding a QB of the future type for the Panthers. All three are daunting tasks, especailly as the Cowboys likely flirt with doing the stupid thing and not re-signing Prescott.

Tier IV - The "Reasonable spoilers" Trio

26.) Denver Broncos  =  5-8  (257-347)
25.) Detroit Lions  =  5-8  (310-389)
23.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-9  (297-362)

The Broncos have three games to continue to evaluate Drew Lock who has done enough good in parts of two years to probably warrant more time. For the Lions, it is probably three games to drive up Matt Stafford's trade value as they look to hit reset (at least that's what I would focus on). For the Chargers, it is evaluating Anthony Lynn, whom the organization seems to like. All three nicely incentivize winning (arguable in the Lions case though with five wins they aren't in line for a top pick) which makes them a bit more live than the three in teh group worse than them. For the Chargers, I really hope they don't fire Lynn. Aside from that fluke 45-0 loss, they are just -20 in point differential with many close losses. This team still has a lot of pieces from the 12-4 unit of 2018 and Lynn should get another shot. They do need someone better to manage their offense however.

Tier V - The "Mess of the NFC East, Pt. 1" Duo

23.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  4-8-1  (277-328)
22.) New York Giants  =  5-8  (238-291)

The NFC East is becoming stratified now with the Cowboys largely out of it, the Redskins at 6-7 with a positive point differential, and these two in the midle of it. The Eagles are three wins away from perfectly pulling a 2014 Carolina Panthers (won the division at 7-8-1 after a 3-8-1 start), but I do wonder if the Hurts offense gets exposed in a way similar to what they just did to the Taysom Hill offense. It helps that the Eagles defense has quietly been very good all year long, keeping them in games even at the nadir of Wentz's performances. For the Giants, Daniel Jones's fumbling is really worrying at this point. It isn't irredeemable - Tom Brady had notably high fumbles early in his career - but he is ruining what could be a 7-9 division winner with the turnovers.

Tier VI - The "True spoiler" Quadro

21.) Atlanta Falcons  =  4-9  (328-322)
20.) San Francicso 49ers  =  5-8  (300-311)
19.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  7-6  (350-391)

18.) New England Patriots  =  6-7  (277-279)

I'm keeping a 4-9 team here because by any underlying way of looking at them they are more like a 6-7 team, and because they have zero incentive to lose here, with an interim coach coaching for a potential job (I do think a 6-10 finish at least makes the Falcon ask the question on Raheem Morris). For the 49ers, same - and they're way too proud to go away, and way to deep and skilled to fold. For the Raiders and Patriots at this point it is seriously unlikely either team makes the playoffs, but both are good enough for 1-2 more wins just in different ways. The Patriots run game and defense can grind out another win or two, and the Raiders offense can probably pull off another win or two. I do wonder though if either is better off just losing out and giving them the clarity to ask serious questions - particularly Oakland who has to realize how gutted they made their defense and how long a road it still has to travel back to mediocrity.

Tier VII - The "Amazing Race for the #7 spot - oh and the Football Team!" Quadro

17.) Chicago Bears  =  6-7  (282-291)

16.) Washington Football Team  =  6-7  (287-275)

15.) Minnesota Vikings  =  6-7  (333-355)

14.) Arizona Cardinals  =  7-6  (358-303)

In the first year of a 7-team playoff format, it looks like we're going to get a 9-7 or even 8-8 Wild Card team in the NFC. This isn't unprecedented, the NFC had an 8-8 Wild Card in a 6-team format in both 2004 and 2006, and 9-7 Wild Cards are commonplace. Secondly, in the AFC it is reasonably likely a 10-win team misses the playoffs. Anyway, the Bears and Vikings are both similar teams in their high-variance play. They play each other this week with the loser being basically out of it. The Cardinals defense has really picked it up as their offense has become more reliant on Murray breaking plays and Nuke doing Nuke things - it is odd how poorly designed that offense seems at times. For the Football team, we have to admit at this point that defense is really good, particularly up front. The Smith offense is not good, but so far hasn't turned it over very often which is generally enough to eke out another win - probably all they need.

Tier VIII - The "Bottom Tier Contenders" 

13.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-5  (330-245)

12.) Cleveland Browns  =  9-4  (348-368)
11.) Seattle Seahawks  =  9-4  (393-324)

The Dolphins almost did their usual turnover and smoke & mirrors BS into beating the Chiefs. I'm more curious how much of this lasts to next year, but for right now they are doing a great lesser-era Pats imitation - sadly for them this is a very different league than allowed a similar profile 2001 Pats team win a Super Bowl. For the Seahawks, it's amazing how no one is giving even two seconds to a 40-3 win over the Jets. Few teams beat the Jets so absolutely - the defense has continued to play well since getting Dunlap and now Adams back. For the Browns, that was an amazing game but a tough loss. They are not 9-4 good, but they aren't -20 point differntial bad. The offense has looked spectacular the last few weeks, and Mayfield has really improved his pocket presence. To not get sacked yesterday was a real feat given how consistent the Ravens got a rush all around him. The defense struggling that much against the run was surprising but what is good is the Browns have very obvious clear needs that are needs that can get fixed in a draft.

Tier IX - The "Middle Tier Contenders" Trio

10.) Tennessee Titans  =  9-4  (390-336)
9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  8-5  (370-294)

8.) Baltimore Ravens  =  8-5  (363-273)

The Titans rebounded nicely - the Jags really help in that regard. Henry is having another ridiculous season. I do find it a bit concerning how little they've shown they can do if Henry does not have a dominant game - not so much that they haven't performed in those situations, but that those situations haven't come up so often. For the Bucs, it was a nice, clean performance, but Dan Bailey's struggles will make it seem like a much stronger win than it was. The Vikings moved the ball all day aside from strange red zone protection issues. The problems aren't fixed there, and having Atlanta twice down the stretch will give their defense - especially up and down top corner Carlton Davis - a couple nice last tests. For the Ravens, that was a much needed win, and offensively the closest to the 2019 Ravens that we've seen. The passing offense is still way off but at least in this game they got guys open consistently - just drops and bad accuracy from Jackson did them in. The Ravens are still to me the most dangerous Wild Card team in their max potential.

Tier X - The "Just damn good Teams!" Trio

7.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-4  (372-300)

6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  9-4  (325-246)
5.) Buffalo Bills  =  10-3  (359-321)

The Colts can definitely point to the Titans loss as a covid-related fluke, having so many key players miss that game and that game only. They've returned to being a really good team on both sides of the ball thereafter. The rediscovery of TY Hilton has added so much to the offense. For the Rams, its clear their defense is a top-5 defense in the league - what has really impressed me is the level of their pass coverage this year. The offense never scores as much as they should, but if any team can bank on winning 24-20 cnsistently it's them (or the Colts, to be honest). For the Bills, that was such an impressive performance to not panic when nothing went theri way early. The OL stabilized late in the first half, they kept attacking that Diggs matchup, and Allen was able to remain in the pocket throughout. Their defense continued its strong recent play, and if they can replicate that type of performance they are definitely dangerous (and in line to potentially steal the #2 seed).

Tier XI - The "Do we panic?" Duo

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  11-2  (349-237)

3.) New Orleans Saints  =  10-3  (368-265)

Both these two teams suddenly ahve a lot of justifiable questions on their offenses. For the Saints, it is when is Brees going to be ready. Hill ended up with nice stats but that overstates a pretty messy performance. They will need a Brees-led offense to go anywhere in the playoffs. For the Steelers, they have to know at this point they can't rely on this hyper-quick passing game. They don't really need to either unless they have such little faith in Roethlisberger - and while his deep passing has fallen off, his strength and placement on intermediate throws have been fine. Both offenses have potential, and don't need to be anything too special, but more is needed than how they've currently played.

Tier XII - The "Great MVP Race of 2020" Duo

2.) Green Bay Packers  =  10-3  (410-323)
1.) Kansas City  =  12-1  (403-281)

With Mahomes shockingly spotty performance the MVP race is, at least to me, a race. Mahomes is still having a better season, and I would ultimately lean his way, but Rodgers has now passed him on many more known stats (passer rating, TDs, y/a), and has closed teh gap by most advanced numbers. Rodgers is having a special year and while his targets are better in practice than in name (particularly the non-Adams guys) Rodgers has reverted back to his 2012-2014 type brilliance. As far as these two as teams, it's still worrying how often the Chiefs play close games, but at least this time there were reasons (turnovers). Their defense is still very good, but its jarring how bad they are in some forms of situational football (most glaringly short-yardage situations). For the Packers, their pass rush has started to pick up but they'll need more from the Smiths and Clark if they want to make a real run.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  14-2

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  13-3

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  13-3

4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  12-4

5.) Tennessee Titans  =  11-5

6.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-5

7.) Cleveland Browns  =  11-5

NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  13-3

2.) New Orleans Saints  =  12-4
3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  11-5

4.) Washington Football Team  =  7-9

5.) Seattle Seahawks  =  11-5

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  10-6

7.) Arizona Cardinals  =  9-7

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) San Francisco 49ers (5-8)  @  Dallas Cowboys (4-9)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad v Bad" Sunday, 

15.) New York Jets (0-13)  @ Los Angeles Rams (9-4)  (4:05 - FOX)

14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-12)  @  Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

13.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Bad v Good, with little change for the Bad" Sunday & Monday

12.) Carolina Panthers (4-9)  @  Green Bay Packers (10-3)  (SAT - NFLN)

11.) Buffalo Bills (10-3)  @  Denver Broncos (5-8)  (SAT - NFLN)

I call it "This is the best they could do?" Saturday

10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (4-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Detroit Lions (5-8)  @  Tennessee Titans (9-4)  (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers (4-9)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)  (TNF - FOX)

4.) Houston Texans (5-8)  @  Indianapolis Colts (9-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad v. Good with a decent chance for the Bad" Thursday & Sunday,

6.) Cleveland Browns (9-4)  @  New York Giants (5-8)  (SNF - NBC)
5.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1)  @  Arizona Cardinals (7-6)  (4:05 - FOX)

4.) Seattle Seahawks (9-4)  @  Washington Football Team  (6-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Oh yeah, NFC East Fever!" Sunday, 

3.) New England Patriots (6-7)  @  Miami Dolphins (8-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Belichick's Last Stand" Sunday, 

2.) Chicago Bears (6-7)  @  Minnesota Vikings (6-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "The first Loser Leaves Town" Sunday, 

1.) Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)  @  New Orleans Saints (10-3)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Brees, come back Please" Sunday, 

NFL 2020: Week 14 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Tank for Trevor: Back on T(r)an(c)k" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-12  (180-353)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-11  (251-352)

Just a bizarre day from trying to understand if the fact the Jets should have won and the Jaguars nearly won were positive or negative developments for these two teams. It's clear they'll end up picking #1-2 in the draft barring some unforeseen improvements. There is more than just Trevor Lawrence in this draft from a QB perspective, be it Justin Fields or even Trey Lance who is Wentz-ing his way into the top of the draft. They'll both get a QB and long term whoever gets the better QB will be better off. No idea why that will be though.

Tier II - The "It's Just Sad" Trio

30.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-9-1  (237-308)
29.) Dallas Cowboys  =  3-9  (268-393)

28.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-8-1  (253-307)

Surprisingly - at least to me - the Cowboys are teh team with the second worst point differential in the NFL, sitting nicely halfway between the Jags and the Jets. What's odd is I don't see their biggest issue being the QB play - at the very least in the games Dalton has played in. That sentiment is very much not the case with teh Eagles, who have had a really nice season defensively but seen their scatter-shot, shattered QB throw it away well too much. For the Bengals, they too, shall we say have QB issues. In theory they have the 'brightest' outlook with a settled QB situation going into next year. I think that more than anything shows the issue with these teams, that the one with a bad roster and a QB rehabbing a serious injury is probably the best in terms of least drama and intrigue.

Tier III - The "Very much barely alive Spoilers" Quadro

27.) Houston Texans  =  4-8  (288-323)

26.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-8  (280-300)

25.) Denver Broncos  =  4-8  (225-320)

24.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  3-9  (277-345)

The NFL has shockingly little 'middle class' teams with just three teams at 6-6 through twelve games. For these four, you can make arguments at their best they've been decent. The Texans are definitely more talented - especially at QB. The Panthers have had great games. The Broncos just played the Chiefs closely and have been ravaged by injuries. The Chargers until last week were only losing in ridiculous ways in close games. There is a chance they can all pull another upset or two. For their future outlook, I would separate out the Texans who have the best QB of the bunch, but taking them aside I would rank them in this order. The Panthers need an option at QB that is more stable than Bridgewater. The Broncos maybe do as well but their also missing a lot of talent that should return. For the Chargers, we'll see how Herbert can rebound from that performance.

Tier IV - The "Lets just start over!" Trio

23.) Chicago Bears  =  5-7  (246-284)
22.) Detroit Lions  =  5-7  (286-358)
21.) Atlanta Falcons  =  4-8  (311-302)

Remember when the Bears were 5-1? Remember when the Lions had so much hype in preseason? Remember when some people believed in the Falcons for the umpteenth year? Ok, that last one might be a bit of a stretch. For the Lions, it is funny that their big issue this year was the same one so many people glossed over when heaping preseason expectations on them - Matt Patricia was a disaster. Bevell had a nice first game but eneeded some luck. For the Lions and Falcons, their biggest decisions will remain what they end up doing with their long-time QBs. I guess you can say that too for the Bears, but they are in a much tougher spot. There is still talent in the short term (QB aside) but Trubisky gives a ceiling to this team and they don't have the cap room nor raft capital to try to raise that ceiling higher in the short term. For the Falcons, the fact they'll likely end up 6-10 or so with a close to even point differential only means they'll get a lot of 'this team was way better than its record' love heading into next season. Often that is actually a sign of improvement potential, but one 43-6 win does skew things a bit.

Tier V - The "Better luck next year" Uno

20.) San Francisco 49ers  =  5-7  (285-288)

So injured but still so reasonably good. Their defense was torn apart by Josh Allen but to me that says a lot more about Josh Allen than it does the 49ers who have lost their pass rush center when Bosa went down. The amount of injuries the 49ers have had to try to overcome this year is shocking; and it is tough for any team to do so well to be treading water point differential wise. They clearly have such good talent and coaching that you can picture it all working next year. And I do hopethat is the case, but I wonder if they missed out having so many players miss a season at their various peaks (Bosa, Kittle, etc.). Also, they have a decision at QB - maybe a landing spot for a Matt Ryan if they want to go for a splurge (admittedly have no idea if they have the cap space for it).

Tier VI - The "NFC East on the Rise?" Duo

19.) Washington Football Team  =  5-7  (264-260)

18.) New York Giants  =  5-7  (231-265)

A lot of people are starting to give the NFC East kudos - well these two teams at least. And for good reason. The Football Team has a positive point differential for the year and just knocked off the Steelers on the road. The Giants have an OK point differential, have won four straight, and gone 5-3 in their last eight with three close losses (by 3, 1 and 2 points). Both are defense first teams and while the Football Team is more conventional in their defensive strength, getting to watch Patrick Graham turn a bunch of randos into a decent defense has been a sight. Gun to my head, I think the Giants take the division, but either way I think the 5-4 Wild Card game is not going to be a total write-off.

Tier VII - The "Soft underbelly of the NFL" Quadro

17.) Arizona Cardinals  =  6-6  (332-296)

16.) Minnesota Vikings  =  6-6  (319-329)

15.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  7-5  (323-347)
14.) New England Patriots  =  6-6  (274-255)

As I said, there are just three 6-6 teams this year. Haven't checked but I figure that is an NFL record-low. Add to that group the Raiders - spiritually a 6-6 team - and you get these medium level of the league. The Cardinals are 1-4 in their last five, while the Vikings are 5-1 in their last six. The Patriots are 4-2 in their last six the Raiders being 3-4 in their last seven. None have particularly easy schedules left, but the Cards and Vikings - I truly believe the worst two teams in this set - have a good shot of getting the #7 seed. They are a study in opposites - the Vikings reaching a fairly high ceiling with a defense getting more experienced and Thielen being back. The Cardinals a higher ceiling with Murray and Hopkins able to dominate games. For the Raidrs and Patriots, neither team is great but I don't think there is as much of a gap between these two and the AFC teams in the next group.

Tier VIII - The "Below market Contenders" Quadro

13.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-4  (303-212)
12.) Cleveland Browns  =  9-3  (306-321)
11.) Seattle Seahawks  =  8-4  (353-321)

10.) Tennessee Titans  =  8-4  (359-326)

Speaking of - a limited set of 6-6 teams (and quietly just three 7-5 teams) leaves a whole lot of teams at the 8-4 or better mark. The Dolphins still have a ridiculous +91 point differential that hasn't fallen off even when they're not getting 1+ return TDs a game. The defense is genuinely good, though admittedly a weak schedule has helped. For the Browns, they're the reverse Dolphins - while their point differential is embarrassing for a team on a 12-win pace, in two games they were outscored by +63 points, and in the other 10 are a +78. They'll get a chance to avenge those two embarrassments as well. The Seahawks and Titans are high variance teams that are strikingly similar in point differential ad performance. They have poor defenses needing to rely on gimmicks to get pressure. They have QBs who have such a high peak. The running games are different, fine, but overall they are similar high ceiling, low floor teams in a year where that level may win out.

Tier IX - The "Correctly Rated Contenders" Quadro

9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  7-5  (344-280)
8.) Baltimore Ravens  2=  7-5  (316-231)

7.) Indianapolis Colts  =  8-4  (328-273)

6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  8-4  (301-243)

I truly think that any of these four teams could win the Super Bowl. I don't really beleive that about any in the group above (even the Seahawks). I hte the fact I'll admit this about teh Bucs but they have a high enough ceiling. For the other three, it's more about their lower floors. The Ravens have an easy schedule to close the season and can be going right into 'year after you lose as a #1 seed you get hot at the right time' mode, though I still feel their OL injuries will doom them. For the Colts, with their defense back healthy they are back to doing what they've done all season. The offense still hasn't hit a great game - they have for a few halves. TY Hilton is slowly regaining form which will be huge. For the Rams, they're just  really good team but my only real worry is the difficulty they have translating yards into points - case in point having a ridiculous edge in yards and first downs against teh Cards early but barely leading at the half.

Tier X - The "Almost great: Duo

5.) Buffalo Bills  =  9-3  (333-306)

4.) Green Bay Packers  =  9-3  (379-299)

Neither team is infallible - obviously the record as much as says that. Both have had bad losses - be it the Bills undressing in Nashville or the Packers similar disaster in Tampa Bay. But at their peak both teams are potential Super Bowl contenders. Both teams ceilings are dependent on their defenses playing at their optimal level. The Bills have stabilized slightly the last month, but that is mostly due to the secondary raising its play. They need their pass rush to return close to 2019 form - as do the Packers. These are smaller nits to pick, however, as both offenses are very good. It is time to stop doubing Josh Allen has reached a new level of competency. Rodgers clearly has returned to that as well. The offenses are schemed so well, operate as such a high level. Both teams have tremendus upside, with significant downside as well. To me the likely outcome is 1-2 great playoff games and then a clunker when they meet one of the teams in the group above.

Tier XI - The "Does Brees Matter?" Uno

3.) New Orleans Saints  =  10-2  (347-241)

The Saints are now 8-0 in the last two years when Drew Brees does not play. I should admit they are also 15-5 when Brees does play so it isn't like he's truly an inhibitor to their success. But I do wonder as we scan outwards for the Saints how much we should take from that knowledge. The defense is good when Brees plays, but consistently reaches higher levels when he's out - it is clear defensive performance led them to the 5-0 record last year and 3-0 this time around - slowly becoming the leagues best defense these past two months. They may be forced to keep that up over the regular season if/when Brees returns, mainly because Brees himself hasn't played at even the level of last year.

Tier XII - The "Is this the best you have?" Duo

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  11-1  (334-211)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-1  (370-254)

I'm not going to overreact to the Steelers loss, mainly because they still have a good shot at the #1 seed, and then because it was a while coming. The Steelers were never 16-0 good - so if anything it may help them to avoid 16-0 questions (felt the same way about teh 2009 Colts, granted they went about it in maybe the worst possible way). The Steelers need to shift their offense - I'm not sure what is driving this hyper-quick passing game approach but it has stopped working. For the Chiefs, it would be nice for them to go out and beat a team 45-17 for once. It's been a while since they ever just destroyed a team. It would put a lot of silent doubters to rest, at least for a while, if we can just get a doninant game again from this group.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  15-1

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  14-2

3.) Buffalo Bills  =  12-4

4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  11-5

5.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-5

6.) Cleveland Browns  =  11-5

7.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-6

NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  13-3

2.) New Orleans Saints  =  13-3

3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  12-4

4.) New York Giants  =  7-9

5.) Seattle Seahawks  =  11-5

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  10-6

7.) Minnesota Vikings  =  8-8

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Dalas Cowboys (3-9)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

15.) Denver Broncos (4-8)  @  Carolina Panthers (4-8)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) Houston Texans (4-8)  @  Chicago Bears (5-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Atlanta Falcons (5-7)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (3-9)  (4:25 - FOX)

12.) New Orleans Saints (10-2)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1)  (4:25 - FOX)
11.) New York Jets (0-12)  @  Seattle Seahawks (8-4)  (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Tennessee Titans (8-4)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11)  (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Green Bay Packers (9-3)  @  Detroit Lions (5-7)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Bad v Bad" Sunday,

8.) Washington Football Team (5-7)  @  San Francisco 49ers (5-7)  (4:25 - FOX)

7.) Arizona Cardinals (6-6)  @  New York Giants (5-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Bad v Good" Sunday

6.) New England Patriots (6-6)  @  Los Angeles Rams (8-4)  (TNF - FOX)

5.) Minnesota Vikings (6-6)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "The Brady & Belichick Pendulum Swings Again!" Thursday and Sunday, 

4.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)  @  Miami Dolphins (8-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

3.) Baltimore Ravens (7-5)  @  Cleveland Browns (9-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Reality Check?" Sunday and Monday,

2.) Indianapolis Colts (8-4)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Battle of the AFC Wild Card Stars" Sunday, 

1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)  @  Buffalo Bills (9-3)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Suddenly this is interesting...." Sunday,

NFL 2020: Week 13 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Tank for Trevor" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-11  (152-322)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-10  (227-325)

Oh the fun race of 2020, forget the fight for the AFCs top seed or NFCs top seed (though admittedly with only the #1 getting a bye those are more meaningful), seeing if the Jets can manage to hold off the Jags. That said, the gap between these two teams in actual performance is giant. The Jaguars have been far better than the Jets, including a few close losses the past few weeks. Both need a QB, and by all accounts there are other good players aside from Trevor Lawrence, so that takes some of the heat off. By the way, how in the world did David Caldwell manage to last nearly eight seasons in charge with just one season with anything approaching success. A career record of 37-86 is bonkers mostly because you never get the chance to do the job for that long when the track record is so bad.

Tier II - The "Slightly less tanking for not Trevor" Trio

30.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-8-1  (230-289)
29.) Dallas Cowboys  =  3-8  (251-359)

28.) Detroit Lions  =  4-7  (252-328)

In theory none of these teams need to have challenges at QB. The Bengals just drafted Joe Burrow and while he had a terrible injury, enough players have returned from it to play well (forget Wentz, let's talk about Watson). They should be set, and they have far more problems elsewhere to fix - most notably an OL. For the Cowboys, they could just do the smart thing and re-sign Dak. They are a bad 3-8, and while they were bad by W-L with Prescott those were close games they lost at the gun, not shellacking at the hands of a wounded Washington team. For the Lion, well now that Quinn and Patricia are gone, the next big decision is Stafford. They could keep him, but he could be a valuable trade asset. The Lions may silently have a lot of talent as its hard to know just how much the mismanagement and bad coaching cost them, but enough regimes haven't figured out Stafford that I don't know if the next Detroit brain trust does so.

Tier III - The "We have to talk about that" Uno

27.) Denver Broncos  =  4-7  (209-298)

The biggest unanswered question I have about the Broncos ridiculous situation was why didn't they just postpone the game a few days to see if any of hte Broncos QBs could play. In the end, all three of the guys got cleared after a few days. If I'm the Broncos, I'm furious - but if I'm any team challenging with the Saints I would too. What I will say is the Broncos continued ability to play well defensively is a massive credit to Fangio. What really hurts is not having the ability to truly grade Lock this year.

Tier IV - The "It's still comical" Trio

26.) New York Giants  =  4-7  (214-253)

25.) Washington Football Team  =  4-7  (241-243)

24.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-7-1  (237-277)

I still don't understand how this division could possibly still be this bad. And it only gets worse. The Giants had a nice few weeks winning three out of four, and then Daniel Jones gets hurt. The Football Team has a shockingly good point differential but I have serious questions still on their offense and their upcoming schedule is just brutal. I still think the Eagles are the most talented team, but they have the worst OL I've seen in a long time, a QB that has been ruined by said OL, and a brutal schedule as well. Still have no clue who will win the division - all I know is that team is guaranteed to win its opening playoff game, just like the 2010 Seahawks. What I know more absolutely, though, is unlike the NFC West in 2010, the NFC East will not be the best division in the sport in three year's time.

Tier V - The "Lesser Tier Spoilers" Trio

23.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-8  (280-300)

22.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  3-8  (277-300)

21.) Chicago Bears  =  5-6  (216-250)

These three teams have had their moments, be it the Chargers nearly winning three or so more games than they've won, or the Bears starting 5-1 (yes, that happened). These three are all good enough to pick off another game or two even against good competition, like the Panthers with Green Bay and the Saints (doubt they win either, but if they do it could easily decide the #1 seed in the NFC). The Chargers have both the Patriots and Raiders, two teams fighting for their wild card lives. The Bears in theory are just a game back of the Bucs since they have a head-to-head win, and an easy schedule ahead. I have no idea if Trubisky is good enough to make a run, but in reality the path is there. If nothing else, their game against the Vikings could decide who has a shot of unseating the Bucs.

Tier VI - The "Upper Tier Spoilers" Trio

20.) Houston Texans  = 4-7  (268-297)
19.) Atlanta Falcons  =  4-7  (295-281)

18.) New England Patriots  =  5-6  (229-255)

The Patriots have some glimmer of hope of the playoffs but it will be really tight, sitting two losses behind the 7-4 Colts that currently hold the #7 seed (to say nothing of the 6-4 Ravens and 6-5 Raiders - granted the Pats beat both those two teams). For the Falcons and Texans, both are way out of it mainly because they entered the season with fairly dead-end coaching situations and let it fly for no reason. Both teams have become a lot better since the coaches were fired, and the Falcons right now are downright scary - as a spoiler. Specifically for Tampa, having both their games against the Falcons still to play is not an ideal position. For the Texans, everything is about DeShaun Watson. Losing Fuller will hurt - might have helped if they had a certain Nuke Hopkins still around - but he is good enough to win a couple games on his own. If anything, he's quietly having a great year and if they can get the right coach around him, the Texans can jump up very quickly next year.

Tier VII - The "Ships passing through the night?" Trio

17.) Minnesota Vikings  =  5-6  (292-305)
16.) San Francisco 49ers  =  5-6  (261-254)

15.) Arizona Cardinals  =  6-5  (304-258)

The Cardinals are flailing a bit as teams are getting slightly better at playing the Murray offense and it will be interesting if more teams do what the Patriots did and just outright double Nuke Hopkins. For them, they are holding onto that #7 spot but it will be tough heading out the season given the schedule ahead for them. For the Vikings and 49ers both are right there - the Vikings with a great chance in the next two weeks with the Jags at home and then a big wild-card game at Tampa in two weeks. For the 49ers likely they can't get there but I haven't seen a team be able to adjust so well to losing great players like this in a long, long time. It is clear they are still one of the best teams in teh NFC had they been healthy. Somehow they may sneak in anyway.

Tier VIII - The "What's going on here?" trio

14.) Cleveland Browns  =  8-3  (265-286)
13.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-5  (292-319)

12.) Miami Dolphins  =  7-4  (284-205)

A week ago, the Browns were 7-3 with a bad point differential. Now they're 8-3 with barely a better one. I have no idea how this has happened. Given they have the Giants, Jets and maybe a backup-filled Steelers team in Week 17, it is likely they win 10+ games, and might easily end the season with a negative point differential. Still don't know how this is happening. For the Raiders, I believe they are a better team than last year's vintage that was similarly 6-4 through 10 games before a 1-5 finish. That team was bad by most metrics through ten games. This team was decent before being absolutely hammered. Maybe it was a weird week, an early East-Coast game. Who knows. They have a reasonably easy schedule down the stretch but have so little margin for error. For the Dolphins - well they have a point differential befitting a 7-4 team. I still don't buy all of it as so much is strained by return TDs and turnovers and the like, but sometimes that stuff just lasts a full season. 

Tier IX - The "It's not their year, man" Trio

11.) Indianapolis Colts  =  7-4  (302-253)
10.) Baltimore Ravens  =  6-5  (282-214)

9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  7-5  (344-280)

I'm keeping the Ravens here out of respect because they got screwed over by COVID. Now, it was their own strength & conditioning coach seemingly as patient zero in their facility, but still it is amazing how many high profile Ravens had to sit out. If Lamar can come back on next Tuesday, they do have an easy enough schedule to still make a run but a lot is now against them. What does help is their head to head win over the Colts giving them a nice tiebreaker edge. The Colts as a team also got bit by the COVID last week with Buckner being out, but more worryingly was the offense after Costanzo left the game. The team is still good, with an easy schedule upcoming, but they've given themselves no margin for error. For the Bucs, they too have less margin for error than it may seem, given their losses to the Rams and Bears (potential Wild Card contenders), and a game against hte Vikings left. That said, the schedule sets up nicely for a 4-0 finish and everyone hopping back on the bandwagon ignoring Brady is nearly incapable against pressure and their defense can give up a lot of yards if they aren't getting pressure.

Tier X - The "Good, not great' Trio

8.) Tennessee Titans  =  8-3  (324-289)

7.) Los Angeles Rams  =  7-4  (263-215)

6.) Buffalo Bills  =  8-3  (299-282)

These three teams are all good, if not very good. They all have high ceilings and relatively high floors. Problem for me is they hit the floor far more often than the ceiling. I'll say this, the Titans offense and Rams defense have been two of my favorite units this year. The Titans  offense has been fantastic to watch for a full year now, especially since they've finally found a real weapon on the outside in AJ Brown and are feeding him like so. With the Rams, obviously Donald and Ramsey are brilliant but what surprises me is the consistency of their pass coverage. They are so often right there with a receiver even on contested catches. For the Bills, Allen is very good and so is Diggs. Quietly the defense has been better the last few weeks, and if they can even get close to approaching their 2019 play this could be a sleeper AFC team.

Tier XI - The "Great, not amazing" Trio

5.) Seattle Seahawks  =  8-3  (341-304)

4.) Green Bay Packers  =  8-3  (349-283)
3.) New Orleans Saints  =  9-2  (326-225)

To me these three teams all can win the Super Bowl without too much needing to go their way. For the Seahawks and Packers, they just need their QB to get hot for four games, which is definitely doable. We may think the Packers are overly susceptible given games like their disaster in Tampa, but so, it seems, is Tampa. The receivers around him are healthy now. For the Seahawks, their defense has really improved ever since Dunlap showed up. Might be a factor of opponents but the defense had to improve from 'historically bad.' For the Saints, so much is going to be if Brees can come back and be healthy. There has to be skepticism given you have to figure rib injuries will be tough to come back from at 100%. The Hill offense is not going to work against real teams (read: teams that can play a QB), but that defense, much like Seattle, has improved so drastically from the start of the season.

Tier XII - The "... And now for the Amazings" Duo

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  11-0  (317-188)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  10-1  (348-238)

The Steelers have two big games left on their schedule, the Bills on the road in two weeks (a great game, to be honest, on Sunday Night) and then the Colts at home two weeks later. 16-0 is definitely a possibility at this point, but let's remember aside from our friends the 2007 Patriots, all the teams that reached the 11-0 point ended up losing to teams you wouldn't expect, be it the 2011 Chiefs (maybe the weirdest), the 2015 Falcons, the 2009 Jets and Cowboys (admittedly, a good team), or 1997 Broncos. Anyway, that defense remains spectacular but we'll have to see the Dupree injury and the impact there. For the Chiefs, they are the best team in my eyes, but its worrying how often they've let teams back into games. A 110 point differential through eleven games isn't bad, but it isn't truly great either. Mahomes and that offense is incredible, but even in the Bucs games, a fumble, poor red zone play and a bevy of holding penalties gave them only 27 points. But we're clearly picking at nits here.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Carolina Panthers (4-8),  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)

15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10)  @  Minnesota Vikings (5-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)  @  New York Jets (0-11)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1)  @  Miami Dolphins (7-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

12.) Detroit Lions (4-7)  @  Chicago Bears (5-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Dallas Cowboys (3-8)  @  Baltimore Ravens (6-5)  (TNF - FOX)

10.) Denver Broncos (4-7)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)  (SNF - NBC)

9.) Washington Football Team (4-7)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-0)  (MNF - TBD) 
8.) New York Giants (4-7)  @  Seattle Seahawks (8-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

7.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1)  @  Green Bay Packers (8-3)  (4:25 - CBS)

6.) Indianapolis Colts (7-4)  @  Houston Texans (4-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

5.) New England Patriots (5-6)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (3-8)  (4:25 - CBS)
4.) New Orleans Saints (9-2)  @  Atlanta Falcons (4-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Buffalo Bills (8-3)  @  San Francisco 49ers (5-6)  (MNF - ESPN)

2.) Los Angeles Rams (7-4)  @  Arizona Cardinals (6-5)  (4:05 - FOX)
1.) Cleveland Browns (8-3)  @  Tennessee Titans (8-3)  (1:00 - CBS)