Wednesday, October 14, 2015

NFL 2015: Week 6 Power Rankings & The Rest

The "Man, the AFC South is garbage" Duo

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (1-4  =  93-145)
31.) Houston Texans  (1-4  =  97-135)

For years I used to get upset when people said the AFC South is a weak division. It most certainly was not for much of the time Peyton Manning was a QB in Indianapolis. But now? Yeah, it is awful. The last team not QBed by Luck (or Hasselbeck) that was any good was the 2012 Texans, whose successes lasted one year. Of these two, I have Jacksonville ranked lower, but they at least have some optimism in the form of their QB. The Texans don't even have that - but do have JJ Watt, who at least is fun to watch.


The "Teams that will put up one good game out of three" Trio

30.) Detroit Lions  (0-5  =  83-138)
29.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (2-3  =  110-148)
28.) Kansas City Chiefs  (1-4  =  117-143)

There are very few truly bad teams that are good bets to be uncompetitive every week. Those first two apply, but these three will put up a fight. The Lions may be winless, but they probably should have beaten Seattle in Seattle. The Buccaneers have been blown out a few times, but they have two wins! The Chiefs may have four losses, but three of them came to teams that are currently 15-0. All three have pieces that could gel in a given game and give a team a challenge, but with a seemingly aging Calvin Johnson (sad), a seemingly extremely erratic Jameis Winston (not surprising) and a now-injured Jamaal Charles (very sad), the likelihood of that is not great.


The "Remember when people liked us, that was fun!" Trio

27.) Miami Dolphins  (1-3  =  65-101)
26.) New Orleans Saints  (1-4  =  103-143)
25.) San Francisco 49ers  (1-4  =  75-140)

At various points, all three of these teams were liked. The Dolphins had major preseason buzz with signing Ndamukong Suh and the hopeful-to-continue improvement of Tannehill. The Saints had buzz in the sense that someone had to win the NFC South, so why not New Orleans? The 49ers had a lot of buzz after Week 1 where they won in a fashion that would make Jim Harbaugh proud. Yeah, turns out none of that matters. The Dolphins may get a temporary lift with Joe Philbin gone, and the Saints still technically have Drew Brees, and the 49ers did play well in a close loss to the Giants, but all three have really peaked in terms of their prospects this season, and are more or less playing out the string. You can argue that the Dolphins still have a chance if they turn their shit around quick, but there are so many teams I would rather see win a wild card spot.


The "Mediocre Trinity" Trio

24.) Cleveland Browns  (2-3  =  118-132)
23.) Dallas Cowboys  (2-3  =  101-131)
22.) Baltimore Ravens  (1-4  =  123-137)

None of these teams is good, but all have the ability to be good. Obviously with Dallas they probably would be good had Bryant and more importantly Romo not gotten hurt. Imagine a Romo and Bryant Cowboys team with the defensive prowess they showed against New England? For the Ravens they were good for a half of week 1 before Suggs got hurt. His injury was followed by another half dozen, and now they're throwing out a team that would make the 2013 blush. The Browns are just mediocre. Their offense is good enough to break out for 500 yards one week, but also bad enough to lose at home to Oakland.


The "Sleepers and Giant Killers" Quadro

21.) Tennessee Titans  (1-3  =  102-91)
20.) Washington Redskins  (2-3  =  97-104)
19.) Chicago Bears  (2-3  =  86-142)
18.) Philadelphia Eagles  (2-3  =  117-103)

These are the four friskiest teams that probably have little chance of making the playoffs. You could probably get decent action on thinking the Redskins or Eagles may steal the NFC East, but let's not be fooled with a team that starts Kirk Cousins, or a team that outside of playing probably the worst defense in teh NFL, has struggled on offense all year long. That said, for those NFC East teams, they have good defenses; somewhat surprising in the case of Washington, and more expected with the talent they've accumulated for Philadelphia. The Titans will be dangerous because they have a rookie who can play well and a decent defense. The Bears with Cutler are far exceeded what I thought they'd be, and at this point we should all realize that no matter what Cutler is, he's ludicrously better than Jimmy Clausen.


The "Fight for 2nd in the AFC West Rivalry" Duo

17.) Oakland Raiders  (2-3  =  107-124)
16.) San Diego Chargers  (2-3  =  116-134)

After the Chargers stunning loss I had to drop them, as it looks like Phil Rivers is facing too many issues right now. The Chargers can't lose games like that, especially to teams that are right there with them in the AFC playoff picture. Anyway, let's talk about Oakland. Obviously, that was a slightly disheartening loss, but their defense is playing well, their young guys are looking good, and David Carr, though still needing refinement, is a future franchise-QB. The real question for Carr is whether his level peaks at a Joe Flacco, or can he be a Philip Rivers.


The "Maybe We can be the 2011 Giants or 2008 Cardinals!?" Quadro

15.) Indianapolis Colts  (3-2  =  99-113)
14.) St. Louis Rams  (2-3  =  84-113)
13.) Buffalo Bills  (3-2  =  124-105)
12.) Minnesota Vikings  (2-2  =  80-73)

All four of these teams have the ability to make the playoffs. Tough schedules may hurt the Rams and Vikings chances, but along with Carolina and maybe Seattle, someone has to get those last two Wild Card spots. Both teams have potentially suffocating defenses that really need more consistency. Speaking of which, so do their offenses, which are too reliant on spectacular talent surrounding at times inneffective play by their QBs. The Bills are basically the AFC version of the Rams or Vikings, but are luckily in the weaker, less deep conference. The Colts are essentially getting a bye to the playoffs, though danger certainly awaits them this week.


The "How Long can Pedigree Take You?" Duo

11.) Seattle Seahawks  (2-3  = 111-98)
10.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (3-2  =  120-95)

As these teams should be worse than they are. The Seahawks should be 1-4, including a loss at home. They played well for 40 minutes, but god awful the last 20 to blow a 17-point 4th quarter lead. Do you know how rare that is? The last team to do that was the Giants in 2010 - the DeSean Jackson punt return game. The Steelers probably should be 2-3, and are somehow competitive with Michael Vick? I'm not really sure what is going on there, but that win was huge. They are alive in that division, though the schedule is rather tough. Getting Roethlisberger back quickly is a must. For the Seahawks, getting any ability to pass block is as well, as the one thing that would really kill their chances is a Wilson injury.


The "New York, New York!" Duo

9.) New York Jets  (3-1  =  95-55)
8.) New York Giants  (3-2  =  132-109)

The last time both New York teams made the playoffs in the same year was 2006, a year when they also got knocked out of the playoffs on the same day. Every year from 2007-2011, one of the two made it, and now we've gone three straight without. Enter 2014, where both teams are exceeding expectations. The Jets are good. They're defense is a Top-3 defense. They're schedule is easy. The AFC is a mess. They really should have no excuse not to get one of the two Wild Cards. The Giants also get luxury of playing against that disaster of a division, and had their biggest rival more or less eliminated with Romo's injury. They can really make an early statement with a win in Philadelphia next week. They may have different styles, but both New York teams are confident and assured in what they do, and so far that has lead to some really positive results.


The "Tell me again how they are Undefeated?" Trio

7.) Carolina Panthers  (4-0  =  108-71)
6.) Atlanta Falcons  (5-0  =  162-112)
5.) Denver Broncos  (5-0  =  113-79)

There are a ridiculous six undefeated teams through Week 5, the most in a long, long time. Last year, no team was undefeated through Week 5. They also have basically been split in their performances so far this year. These three have had a few close calls. The Panthers were never in serious trouble, but have played teams that I currently have ranked #32, #31, #29 and #26. The Falcons needed OT to beat the Redskins at home - and that was their second scare at home already. The Broncos... well we know all about the Broncos really. These are the three likeliest to drop out of the ranks of the undefeated, some as soon as this week.


The "What will the NFL do if we are the one's playing in Super Bowl 50?" Duo

4.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-1  =  190-90)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals  (5-0  =  148-101)

Really, what would the NFL do. These are two fantastic teams. The Cardinals have a historic point differential through five games and are a few self-inflicted wounds from a 5-0 start. The Bengals are indeed 5-0, showing incredible guts winning against Seattle from 24-7 down, and doing it with relative ease. Both teams are built similarly: offenses that throw deep, dynamic running game, better-than-expected O-Lines, defenses with a ton of d-backs, good interior pass rush. They would make for an entertaining Super Bowl.


The "Does it seem like the NFL is rigging this season for this to be Super Bowl 50?" Duo

2.) Green Bay Packers  (5-0  =  137-81)
1.) New England Patriots  (4-0  =  149-76)

The Packers have shown in the last two weeks that losing Jordy Nelson does impact them somewhat. Specificially in the Rams game, they weren't afraid of getting beat over the top. Teams can play the Packers a little bit differently. That said, they've also shown all season that this is probably the best Packers defense since 2010. And for New England, the Champs are #1 till they get beaten, but they probably, begrudgingly, deserve it too.


Projecting the Playoff Teams

AFC

1.) New England Patriots  =  14-2
2.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  13-3
3.) Denver Broncos  =  12-4
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-7
5.) New York Jets  =  11-5
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  10-6


NFC

1.) Arizona Cardinals  =  13-3
2.) Green Bay Packers  =  13-3
3.) Atlanta Falcons  =  12-4

4.) New York Giants  =  10-6
5.) Carolina Panthers  =  11-5
6.) St. Louis Rams  =  10-6



Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Dallas Cowboys (2-3), Oakland Raiders (2-3), St, Louis Rams (2-3), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)


14.) Houston Texans (1-4)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Miami Dolphins (1-3)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Chicago Bears (2-3)  @  Detroit Lions (0-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (2-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "The 1:00 Disaster" Quatro, as I feel so bad for the markets that get saddled with these games. None of them seem good. Of course, knowing the NFL, one of these will be the game of the day, but even then other than the Vikings all these teams are basically irrelevant as it comes to their chances in the playoffs. The Chiefs will be without Jamaal Charles, the Lions have to play at home right away after last week's disaster, and then we get four bottom-tier AFC teams squaring off. At least none of these were the Thursday Night game this week.


10.) Denver Broncos (5-0)  @  Cleveland Browns (2-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Washington Redskins (2-3)  @  New York Jets (3-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
8.) San Diego Chargers (2-3)  @  Green Bay Packers (6-0)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Mismatch Alert or Upset Alert" Sunday, as all three teams feature one team that is a class above the other - and yes, I am willing to go on record saying the Jets are a class above the Redskins. The Broncos finish their pre-bye schedule with their second straight road game against a team that so far has been better on the road. The Packers get another home game, against a Chargers team that is beyond reeling on a short week. One of these three games will be close, and it is probably most likely to be Washington @ Jets, but I wouldn't be shocked if one is a complete blowout, one is a good win, and the other is an upset.


7.) Baltimore Ravens (1-4)  @  San Francisco 49ers (1-4)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "February, 2013, was a long, long time ago..." Sunday, as the two teams who last met in Super Bowl XLVII face off with both at 1-4. The 49ers seem in more dire straits given the retirements and injuries and whatever has happened to Colin Kaepernick, and their Harbaugh jetting away. But the Ravens are in bad shape also. They need to have a plan for a future without Terrell Suggs, and they need to start getting good young WRs, and stop losing games at home. Other than when Oakland traveled to Tampa Bay in 2004 (both teams went 5-11), I don't remember a less exciting Super Bowl rematch.


6.) Atlanta Falcons (5-0)  @  New Orleans Saints (1-4)  (TNF - NFLN)
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-0)  @  Buffalo Bills (3-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Games that should have been better" Thursday and Sunday, as the Falcons go to New Orleans to play a team that is basically such a shell of its formal self. This was a good rivalry as recent as Week 1 last year, when the Falcons beat New Orleans in the Superdome in OT. A year+ later, and the Saints Brees/Payton era seems to be over. For the Bengals and Bills, this should have been a good game, but the news of Tyrod Taylor likely being out and EJ Manuel depressingly back in pushses it back a bit.


4.) New England Patriots (4-0)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-2)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Revenge" Sunday, as for some there is no line high enough to not take New England. Already New England has persistent structural and schematic advantages against this Colts team, and now they're out for blood after Deflategate. I'm assuming Luck plays, but even then the Colts really have no chance.


3.) Carolina Panthers (4-0)  @  Seattle Seahawks (2-3)  (4:05 - FOX)
2.) Arizona Cardinals (4-1)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Just two plain ol' good games" Sunday as the Panthers go to Seattle to renew a nice little rivalry that has built up over the past few years - this time with Luke Kuechly, and the Cardinals go to play the Steelers in a game that, and I'm assuming Roethlisberger is playing, pits two of the most exciting offenses in the league against each other. Nothing more to say, these are just two nice games.


1.) New York Giants (3-2)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "The rare NFC East game I want to see" Monday, as the Giants go to Philadelphia to play an Eagles team that is suddenly getting love again. Let's remember how bad the Saints are on defense before we pump up the Eagles chances too much now, but then again the Eagles may have found something out. A win here and they're tied for the division lead through 6 games. A win for the Giants, and with the Cowboys on a bye and the Redskins likely losing to the Jets, and their 1.5-2 games up through 6. A lot at stake here.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.