Week 3: 9-7
Year-to-date: 25-22-1
Partly because the games are so bad this weekend, and partly because I'm starting something else here, doing these rather quickly.
Baltimore Ravens (0-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) (BAL -3)
If the Ravens can't beat Pittsburgh QBed by Michael Vick in a truly must-win game, then I have serious questions both about the Ravens future, and my own belief that this team should have been really good. That all said, they really should win. They have a ton of matchup edges as I can't believe Michael Vick will actually be able to pass the ball well.
Ravens 27 Steelers 17 (BAL -3)
New York Jets (2-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2) (NYJ -2)
Does this line think the game is in Miami? Like why is this line so low? The Jets have a defense that can dominate most teams, especially a Dolphins team that already has issues with the run and moving the ball against lesser defenses. I don't know how many points the Jets will score - this will likely be another ugly game in London. I would say the Dolphins are desperate, but at this point they may be more desparate for a coaching change.
Jets 20 Dolphins 16 (NYJ -2)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2) (IND -9)
Not picking this game until we know what happens with Luck.
Oakland Raiders (2-1) @ Chicago Bears (0-3) (OAK -3)
I'm liking a lot of favorites this week, which is not great. I do like the Raiders here as well. Yes, there is something that just seems off about picking Oakland to win a 2nd consecutive road game at 1PM EST, and do it as a favorite no less. That said, it is Jimmy Clausen, who has never, ever been good, and a team that is fire-saling their defense big time.
Raiders 27 Bears 16 (OAK -3)
Carolina Panthers (3-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) (CAR -3.5)
The Panthers are a machine running on diesel gas instead of regular right now with Charles Johnson out being somewhat replaced by Jared Allen, and Luke Kuechly still out of action. Even despite that, you get the feeling the Ron Rivera can coax and coach his way to a good defensive performance from his guys. On the other side, this is the best I've seen Cam Newton play, as his teammates are the worst. The Panthers may lose, but I can't really pick them to.
Panthers 23 Buccaneers 13 (CAR -3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) (CIN -4)
Hey, another favorite I like. There are a few reasons not to pick Cincinnati, including the Chiefs being slightly desperate to hold steady with Denver, and the Bengals maybe looking ahead to next Sunday's game against Cincinnati, but that all seems factored into this line. The Chiefs corners are a mess right now, which is trouble against the Bengals and their healthy set of receivers.
Chiefs 20 Bengals 28 (CIN -4)
New York Giants (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1) (BUF -5)
Finally, I am going to take an underdog. The Giants are really close to 3-0, and that would include basically beating the best version of the Cowboys, and beating the Falcons. The Bills are really good, but just like after their Week 1 win, they may be riding a bit high. Victor Cruz won't be back, but I still like the Giants to cover.
Giants 20 Bills 23 (NYG +5)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) @ Washington Redskins (1-2) (PHI -2.5)
When are we going to stop buying the Eagles. Let's not pretend like they looked 'good' in their win. If anything, it was Bradford's worst game of the year. The Redskins defense is good, though inconsistent, but so far all defenses are good against Philadelphia. Maybe they break out here, but I'm not seeing it, and this is a weird line given the Redskins were a trendy NFC East pick just 10 days ago.
Eagles 17 Redskins 21 (WAS +2.5)
Houston Texans (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0) (ATL -5.5)
I don't get this line at all. The Texans one win was against a bad Tampa Bay team, won more because the Buccaneers missed three field goals and an extra point. Their offense still looks deplorable. The Falcons have been toeing the line, but they've played three teams that, even with Weeden at QB, are better than the current Texans. Personally, I think this is a disrespectful line.
Texans 17 Falcons 26 (ATL -5.5)
Cleveland Browns (1-2) @ San Diego Chargers (1-2) (SD -7.5)
I don't have a good feel for this game at all. I think the Chargers should come out a little desperate after their bad showings the last two weeks. The Browns are still starting McCown, but have a defense that should get some pressure on Rivers and co. I really have no idea, so I'll take the Browns to cover a high line.
Browns 20 Chargers 27 (CLE +7.5)
Green Bay Packers (3-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2) (GB -8.5)
I'm of two minds of this game. The 49ers have generally been able to play the Packers offense well, but those matchups were all in 2012-13, about 7 or 8 defensive starters ago. But the scheme is still the same, and while they couldn't do anything against Pittsburgh or Arizona, maybe their better on the road? I'm not believing any of this, but I do believe two things. First, the 49ers offense can't be as bad as its looked the last game, and that I think this line is a little high.
Packers 30 49ers 24 (SF +8.5)
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Denver Broncos (3-0) (DEN -6.5)
This is a tough game. The Vikings pass rush really dialed up the last two weeks, and the Broncos have had issues with that so far. Of course, those issues have lessened as they've moved to more shotgun, but the Vikings can tee off against a pitiful run game. That said, on the other side, unless Adrian Peterson goes off against a good rush defense, the Vikings passing game may be woefully outmatched. I don't think the Broncos have to score too much to cover this.
Vikings 13 Broncos 27 (DEN -6.5)
St. Louis Rams (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0) (ARZ -7.5)
This is another high line. I can easily see the Rams getting blown off the field, not able to score at all much like what happened against the Redskins. But the Rams have generally played really tough in division over the years, and their pass rush could do well against the Cardinals and their deep-passing game. I'm taking the Rams to cover, but I'm not really confident. I guess Vegas knows what its doing, huh?
Rams 13 Cardinals 20 (STL +7.5)
Dallas Cowboys (2-1) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0) (NO -3)
Drew Brees is looking likely to play. Brandon Weeden definitely is playing. The Saints have always been good at night at home. Their home-game losing streak has to end sometime, right? This seems easier than it is.
Cowboys 20 Saints 27 (NO -3)
Detroit Lions (1-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-0) (SEA -10.5)
The Seahawks have been brilliant at home, particularly in prime-time, but I like some of the matchups here. I generally think the Lions defense is better than most and their still good d-line rotation can control Lynch. On the other end, though, the Lions may struggle to score. I hate picking against both the Packers and Seahawks to cover, but I'm doing just that.
Lions 17 Seahawks 23 (DET +10.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
Year-to-date: 25-22-1
Partly because the games are so bad this weekend, and partly because I'm starting something else here, doing these rather quickly.
Baltimore Ravens (0-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) (BAL -3)
If the Ravens can't beat Pittsburgh QBed by Michael Vick in a truly must-win game, then I have serious questions both about the Ravens future, and my own belief that this team should have been really good. That all said, they really should win. They have a ton of matchup edges as I can't believe Michael Vick will actually be able to pass the ball well.
Ravens 27 Steelers 17 (BAL -3)
New York Jets (2-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2) (NYJ -2)
Does this line think the game is in Miami? Like why is this line so low? The Jets have a defense that can dominate most teams, especially a Dolphins team that already has issues with the run and moving the ball against lesser defenses. I don't know how many points the Jets will score - this will likely be another ugly game in London. I would say the Dolphins are desperate, but at this point they may be more desparate for a coaching change.
Jets 20 Dolphins 16 (NYJ -2)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2) (IND -9)
Not picking this game until we know what happens with Luck.
Oakland Raiders (2-1) @ Chicago Bears (0-3) (OAK -3)
I'm liking a lot of favorites this week, which is not great. I do like the Raiders here as well. Yes, there is something that just seems off about picking Oakland to win a 2nd consecutive road game at 1PM EST, and do it as a favorite no less. That said, it is Jimmy Clausen, who has never, ever been good, and a team that is fire-saling their defense big time.
Raiders 27 Bears 16 (OAK -3)
Carolina Panthers (3-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) (CAR -3.5)
The Panthers are a machine running on diesel gas instead of regular right now with Charles Johnson out being somewhat replaced by Jared Allen, and Luke Kuechly still out of action. Even despite that, you get the feeling the Ron Rivera can coax and coach his way to a good defensive performance from his guys. On the other side, this is the best I've seen Cam Newton play, as his teammates are the worst. The Panthers may lose, but I can't really pick them to.
Panthers 23 Buccaneers 13 (CAR -3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) (CIN -4)
Hey, another favorite I like. There are a few reasons not to pick Cincinnati, including the Chiefs being slightly desperate to hold steady with Denver, and the Bengals maybe looking ahead to next Sunday's game against Cincinnati, but that all seems factored into this line. The Chiefs corners are a mess right now, which is trouble against the Bengals and their healthy set of receivers.
Chiefs 20 Bengals 28 (CIN -4)
New York Giants (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1) (BUF -5)
Finally, I am going to take an underdog. The Giants are really close to 3-0, and that would include basically beating the best version of the Cowboys, and beating the Falcons. The Bills are really good, but just like after their Week 1 win, they may be riding a bit high. Victor Cruz won't be back, but I still like the Giants to cover.
Giants 20 Bills 23 (NYG +5)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) @ Washington Redskins (1-2) (PHI -2.5)
When are we going to stop buying the Eagles. Let's not pretend like they looked 'good' in their win. If anything, it was Bradford's worst game of the year. The Redskins defense is good, though inconsistent, but so far all defenses are good against Philadelphia. Maybe they break out here, but I'm not seeing it, and this is a weird line given the Redskins were a trendy NFC East pick just 10 days ago.
Eagles 17 Redskins 21 (WAS +2.5)
Houston Texans (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0) (ATL -5.5)
I don't get this line at all. The Texans one win was against a bad Tampa Bay team, won more because the Buccaneers missed three field goals and an extra point. Their offense still looks deplorable. The Falcons have been toeing the line, but they've played three teams that, even with Weeden at QB, are better than the current Texans. Personally, I think this is a disrespectful line.
Texans 17 Falcons 26 (ATL -5.5)
Cleveland Browns (1-2) @ San Diego Chargers (1-2) (SD -7.5)
I don't have a good feel for this game at all. I think the Chargers should come out a little desperate after their bad showings the last two weeks. The Browns are still starting McCown, but have a defense that should get some pressure on Rivers and co. I really have no idea, so I'll take the Browns to cover a high line.
Browns 20 Chargers 27 (CLE +7.5)
Green Bay Packers (3-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2) (GB -8.5)
I'm of two minds of this game. The 49ers have generally been able to play the Packers offense well, but those matchups were all in 2012-13, about 7 or 8 defensive starters ago. But the scheme is still the same, and while they couldn't do anything against Pittsburgh or Arizona, maybe their better on the road? I'm not believing any of this, but I do believe two things. First, the 49ers offense can't be as bad as its looked the last game, and that I think this line is a little high.
Packers 30 49ers 24 (SF +8.5)
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Denver Broncos (3-0) (DEN -6.5)
This is a tough game. The Vikings pass rush really dialed up the last two weeks, and the Broncos have had issues with that so far. Of course, those issues have lessened as they've moved to more shotgun, but the Vikings can tee off against a pitiful run game. That said, on the other side, unless Adrian Peterson goes off against a good rush defense, the Vikings passing game may be woefully outmatched. I don't think the Broncos have to score too much to cover this.
Vikings 13 Broncos 27 (DEN -6.5)
St. Louis Rams (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0) (ARZ -7.5)
This is another high line. I can easily see the Rams getting blown off the field, not able to score at all much like what happened against the Redskins. But the Rams have generally played really tough in division over the years, and their pass rush could do well against the Cardinals and their deep-passing game. I'm taking the Rams to cover, but I'm not really confident. I guess Vegas knows what its doing, huh?
Rams 13 Cardinals 20 (STL +7.5)
Dallas Cowboys (2-1) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0) (NO -3)
Drew Brees is looking likely to play. Brandon Weeden definitely is playing. The Saints have always been good at night at home. Their home-game losing streak has to end sometime, right? This seems easier than it is.
Cowboys 20 Saints 27 (NO -3)
Detroit Lions (1-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-0) (SEA -10.5)
The Seahawks have been brilliant at home, particularly in prime-time, but I like some of the matchups here. I generally think the Lions defense is better than most and their still good d-line rotation can control Lynch. On the other end, though, the Lions may struggle to score. I hate picking against both the Packers and Seahawks to cover, but I'm doing just that.
Lions 17 Seahawks 23 (DET +10.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
