Quick picks this week...
Week 4: 10-3-2
Year-to-Date:
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ Houston Texans (1-3) (HOU -5.5)
I realize Andrew LUck is missing the game, but I truthfuly believes the COlts with Matt Hasselbeck are better and more talented than the Texans with Ryan Mallet. At least enough so to keep this game within 5. This is an embarrassing line really. I'm rarely this confident in a line pick, but I can see the Colts really playing it up in this game and taking it outright.
Colts 23 Texans 17 (IND +5.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaners (1-3) (TB -3)
What a dreadful game. The Buccaneers have hit higher highs this year, beating the Saints in the Superdome, and not getting blown ut 51-17. The Jaguars have lost a lot of luster over the past two weeks, as has their win against the Dolphins. This line too seems a bit low. I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole, but I think this is reasonable value for the Buccaneers. Betting on rooie Jameis is scary though.
Jaguars 16 Buccaneers 21 (TB -3)
Cleveland Browns (1-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-3) (BAL -7)
The Browns have had a habit of palying the Ravens tough once a year, and often it has been the game in Baltimore - but the Ravens end up winning and more often than not end up covering. The Browns have been competitive in their losses, but competitive also meant a 7-point loss to Oakland at home. The Ravens found something last weekend with their run game finally hitting its mark, and I think that continues against what has been, so far, a bad rush defense.
Browns 17 Ravens 27 (BAL -7)
Chicago Bears (1-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) (KC -9.5)
High line, right? I wonder is a 1-3 team has ever been favored by this much before. That is a really odd bit of confidence in a team that has not looked good this year. The Chiefs have potential, but even in their dominant Week 1 win in Houston they couldn't beat a team by double digits. The Bears showed a pulse last week against the Raiders and while I think they lose, this is a really high line for a team that really hasn't stopped the pass yet.
Bears 20 Chiefs 26 (CHI +9.5)
Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-2) (BUF -1)
Are the Bills good? To me, they still are, but the better question should be why the Bills defense isn't better. The Bills were a borderline Top-5 defense each of the past two years when they were led by good Defensive Coordinators in Gregg Williams and Jim Schwartz, but they've somehow taken a step back with Rex. Some of that is schedule - the Patriots and Giants are two good teams. Some of it may be age. But they should have more sacks. If Rex Ryan's defense is going to break out, it should happen here against a rookie.
Bills 24 Titans 13 (BUF -1)
Washington Redskins (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-0) (ATL -7)
The Falcons are 4-0, just had a 42-0 lead in their last game, and have been great at home for years. The Redskins were really close to losing to Philadelphia, and the last time we saw them on the road they were ably handled in New York. Also, Kyle Shanahan would probably love to stick it to the Redskins. I can see this being another big Falcons blowout.
Redskins 17 Falcons 34 (ATL -7)
New Orleans Saints (1-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) (PHI -5.5)
The Eagles should not be giving this much points to anyone. I don't think the Saints are very good, but theoretically Brees should be a little bit healthier this week. The Eagles defense is simple enough right now that I think even Rob Ryan should be able to figure it out. I can't see this going well if the Eagles fall behind early. Something is seriously wrong in Philadelphia right now.
Saints 27 Eagles 20 (NO +5.5)
St. Louis Rams (2-2) @ Green Bay Packers (4-0) (GB -9)
The Rams had a huge win in Week 1, then went out East on the road and fell on their face. I can see something similar happening. They do often play up to their opponent, and they have the d-line to trouble the Packers, but I don't know if the Rams will score enough points against a better than expected Packers defense to cover even if their own defense holds the Packers at bay. In Lambeau, there's only so much you can do on defense.
Rams 16 Packers 27 (GB -9)
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-0) (CIN -3)
The Seahawks are missing Marshawn Lynch, they have no o-line, they basically need Russell Wilson to pull a houdini act on every play to do anything of note. The Bengals are balanced, can basically do everything well, and have the best o-line in football in pass protection to hold the Seahawks d-line at bay. Yes, I realize Andy Dalton... but Andy Dalton has been able to lead a team that has beaten the Packers, Patriots and Broncos at home in the past two seasons.
Seahawks 17 Bengals 24 (CIN -3)
Denver Broncos (4-0) @ Oakland Raiders (2-2) (DEN -4.5)
Again, this is so little respect for the Broncos defense - forgot that their offense has basically been league average the past three weeks. The Raiders performances against two bad teams is clouding people right now. The Raiders can have a bright future and still be a few rungs below the Broncos. The Broncos defense can put Carr under pressure which he hasn't handled well yet, and can cover his few receiving options. They don't even have to score that much to win and cover.
Broncos 30 Raiders 13 (DEN -4.5)
New England Patriots (3-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-2) (NE -9)
I don't even want to talk about this game, as it should have been so much more than this.
Patriots 38 Cowboys 17 (NE -9)
Arizona Cardinals (3-1) @ Detroit Lions (0-4) (ARZ -3)
I can see the Cardinals stumbling here, and that seems to be factored into this line, but if we peel back, the Cardinals could and probably should have won that game. They killed themselves, and are, in my opinion, too well coached. I'm liking a lot of favorites this week, and it is just one of those weeks. My hope is that they go .500, and the I picked the right underdogs to cover. The Cardinals defense matches up well against a Lions team that can't run and has very few receiving options. I also worry about an emotional letdown for Detroit after that awful loss.
Cardinals 27 Lions 17 (ARZ -3)
San Francisco 49ers (1-3) @ New York Giants (2-2) (NYG -7)
Suddenly a lot of faith in the Giants, huh? The Giants are a good team, they should be at least 3-1. The 49ers have lost their last three games 28-107 and there's no real end in sight. The Giants defense is athletic, which should work well against on offense where all they really have to do is contain Kaepernick's running. Again, I fear taking so many favorites, and I would recommend buying half a point, but the Giants should be able to get their third straight.
49ers 14 Giants 27 (NYG -7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) @ San Diego Chargers (2-2) (SD -3)
Another game I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. The Chargers are so injured everywhere, but have Philip Rivers (and Antonio Gates back). The Steelers are healthy and playing better than expected on defense, but don't have their all-pro QB. The Chargers should win, and I'm screwing myself by taking so many favorites, but here goes.
Steelers 23 Chargers 27 (SD -3)
Enjoy the Games!!
Week 4: 10-3-2
Year-to-Date:
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ Houston Texans (1-3) (HOU -5.5)
I realize Andrew LUck is missing the game, but I truthfuly believes the COlts with Matt Hasselbeck are better and more talented than the Texans with Ryan Mallet. At least enough so to keep this game within 5. This is an embarrassing line really. I'm rarely this confident in a line pick, but I can see the Colts really playing it up in this game and taking it outright.
Colts 23 Texans 17 (IND +5.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaners (1-3) (TB -3)
What a dreadful game. The Buccaneers have hit higher highs this year, beating the Saints in the Superdome, and not getting blown ut 51-17. The Jaguars have lost a lot of luster over the past two weeks, as has their win against the Dolphins. This line too seems a bit low. I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole, but I think this is reasonable value for the Buccaneers. Betting on rooie Jameis is scary though.
Jaguars 16 Buccaneers 21 (TB -3)
Cleveland Browns (1-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-3) (BAL -7)
The Browns have had a habit of palying the Ravens tough once a year, and often it has been the game in Baltimore - but the Ravens end up winning and more often than not end up covering. The Browns have been competitive in their losses, but competitive also meant a 7-point loss to Oakland at home. The Ravens found something last weekend with their run game finally hitting its mark, and I think that continues against what has been, so far, a bad rush defense.
Browns 17 Ravens 27 (BAL -7)
Chicago Bears (1-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) (KC -9.5)
High line, right? I wonder is a 1-3 team has ever been favored by this much before. That is a really odd bit of confidence in a team that has not looked good this year. The Chiefs have potential, but even in their dominant Week 1 win in Houston they couldn't beat a team by double digits. The Bears showed a pulse last week against the Raiders and while I think they lose, this is a really high line for a team that really hasn't stopped the pass yet.
Bears 20 Chiefs 26 (CHI +9.5)
Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-2) (BUF -1)
Are the Bills good? To me, they still are, but the better question should be why the Bills defense isn't better. The Bills were a borderline Top-5 defense each of the past two years when they were led by good Defensive Coordinators in Gregg Williams and Jim Schwartz, but they've somehow taken a step back with Rex. Some of that is schedule - the Patriots and Giants are two good teams. Some of it may be age. But they should have more sacks. If Rex Ryan's defense is going to break out, it should happen here against a rookie.
Bills 24 Titans 13 (BUF -1)
Washington Redskins (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-0) (ATL -7)
The Falcons are 4-0, just had a 42-0 lead in their last game, and have been great at home for years. The Redskins were really close to losing to Philadelphia, and the last time we saw them on the road they were ably handled in New York. Also, Kyle Shanahan would probably love to stick it to the Redskins. I can see this being another big Falcons blowout.
Redskins 17 Falcons 34 (ATL -7)
New Orleans Saints (1-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) (PHI -5.5)
The Eagles should not be giving this much points to anyone. I don't think the Saints are very good, but theoretically Brees should be a little bit healthier this week. The Eagles defense is simple enough right now that I think even Rob Ryan should be able to figure it out. I can't see this going well if the Eagles fall behind early. Something is seriously wrong in Philadelphia right now.
Saints 27 Eagles 20 (NO +5.5)
St. Louis Rams (2-2) @ Green Bay Packers (4-0) (GB -9)
The Rams had a huge win in Week 1, then went out East on the road and fell on their face. I can see something similar happening. They do often play up to their opponent, and they have the d-line to trouble the Packers, but I don't know if the Rams will score enough points against a better than expected Packers defense to cover even if their own defense holds the Packers at bay. In Lambeau, there's only so much you can do on defense.
Rams 16 Packers 27 (GB -9)
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-0) (CIN -3)
The Seahawks are missing Marshawn Lynch, they have no o-line, they basically need Russell Wilson to pull a houdini act on every play to do anything of note. The Bengals are balanced, can basically do everything well, and have the best o-line in football in pass protection to hold the Seahawks d-line at bay. Yes, I realize Andy Dalton... but Andy Dalton has been able to lead a team that has beaten the Packers, Patriots and Broncos at home in the past two seasons.
Seahawks 17 Bengals 24 (CIN -3)
Denver Broncos (4-0) @ Oakland Raiders (2-2) (DEN -4.5)
Again, this is so little respect for the Broncos defense - forgot that their offense has basically been league average the past three weeks. The Raiders performances against two bad teams is clouding people right now. The Raiders can have a bright future and still be a few rungs below the Broncos. The Broncos defense can put Carr under pressure which he hasn't handled well yet, and can cover his few receiving options. They don't even have to score that much to win and cover.
Broncos 30 Raiders 13 (DEN -4.5)
New England Patriots (3-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-2) (NE -9)
I don't even want to talk about this game, as it should have been so much more than this.
Patriots 38 Cowboys 17 (NE -9)
Arizona Cardinals (3-1) @ Detroit Lions (0-4) (ARZ -3)
I can see the Cardinals stumbling here, and that seems to be factored into this line, but if we peel back, the Cardinals could and probably should have won that game. They killed themselves, and are, in my opinion, too well coached. I'm liking a lot of favorites this week, and it is just one of those weeks. My hope is that they go .500, and the I picked the right underdogs to cover. The Cardinals defense matches up well against a Lions team that can't run and has very few receiving options. I also worry about an emotional letdown for Detroit after that awful loss.
Cardinals 27 Lions 17 (ARZ -3)
San Francisco 49ers (1-3) @ New York Giants (2-2) (NYG -7)
Suddenly a lot of faith in the Giants, huh? The Giants are a good team, they should be at least 3-1. The 49ers have lost their last three games 28-107 and there's no real end in sight. The Giants defense is athletic, which should work well against on offense where all they really have to do is contain Kaepernick's running. Again, I fear taking so many favorites, and I would recommend buying half a point, but the Giants should be able to get their third straight.
49ers 14 Giants 27 (NYG -7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) @ San Diego Chargers (2-2) (SD -3)
Another game I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. The Chargers are so injured everywhere, but have Philip Rivers (and Antonio Gates back). The Steelers are healthy and playing better than expected on defense, but don't have their all-pro QB. The Chargers should win, and I'm screwing myself by taking so many favorites, but here goes.
Steelers 23 Chargers 27 (SD -3)
Enjoy the Games!!
