Week 5: 8-5-1
Year-to-Date:
Atlanta Falcons (5-0) @ New Orleans Saints (1-4) (ATL -3.5)
I'm a little worried about the Falcons in this spot. Thursday Night games are anyway tough to pick, and historically they've not done too well in the Superdome over the years. The Saints are desperate, and after last week I'm not totally sold on how good the Falcons are. That all said, I'll still pick the Falcons because the line has all those issues built in. Something is just wrong in New Orleans right now.
Falcons 31 Saints 24 (ATL -3.5)
Houston Texans (1-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) (JAX -1.5)
I have no idea, and to be perfectly honest I don't honestly care one iota about this game. Like what is the point of even having these teams. I'll take the Texans because I don't like the idea of the Jaguars being favorites ever.
Texans 20 Jaguars 17 (HOU +1.5)
Chicago Bears (2-3) @ Detroit Lions (0-5) (DET -3)
Very surprised that the Lions, off of that abhorrent game at home, are favored here, but I kind of understand it. The Lions are not as bad as the team that gave no effort to Arizona; whether they are closer to the team that should have beaten Seattle in Seattle, I'm not sure. However, I think we all may be underrating the Bears. With Jay Cutler healthy for a full game, they are 2-1, with a close loss to Green Bay. The Bears may just be decent - I guess John Fox can coach.
Bears 23 Lions 21 (CHI +3)
Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Tennessee Titans (1-3) (TEN -1)
I love that this line is almost a pick-em (somehow, I bet on Bills -1 last week and pushed!!!), because there are reasons to like Miami. Very often, the first few games with an interim coach the team gets a boost. They are coming off of their bye. The Titans may not be all that good. They really blew that game to Buffalo. The Titans have a good young QB, someone may pass over Ryan Tannehill in the middle of the night as the next hope for the future of the AFC in the late 2010's. I like the Titans here with such a low line as I feel that we are all just off on the Dolphins.
Dolphins 17 Titans 23 (TEN -1)
Washington Redskins (2-3) @ New York Jets (3-1) (NYJ -7)
This is a really high line, but for a good reason: the Jets are very, very good at what they do well. Their defense is awesome, right up there with Denver as the league's best through the first five weeks. The last time we saw them the mercilessly blitzed an erratic Ryan Tannehill, and if not for a few pass interference penalties could have shut them out. The Redskins QB in Kirk Cousins may be one of the QBs who handles pressure worse than Tannehill. The other side of the ball favors the defense, but a little less with a team missing players in the secondary. I like a lot of favorites this week - partially because the lines are across-the-board lower this week than normal, and I feel like this could very easily be wrong given the overall points scored, but I'll take the Jets to cover.
Redskins 13 Jets 23 (NYJ -7)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (2-2) (MIN -3.5)
The Vikings are a good home team. They beat the Lions in a game not as close as the score, and then routed the Chargers 34-7 in a game probably slightly closer than the score. The Chiefs are at an all-time low right now, having lost Jamaal Charles and also lost a 17-3 lead at home against a bad Chicago team. Unless they rally for some unforseen reason, I have to like the Vikings to cover a low line. I really like way too many favorites this week.
Chiefs 16 Vikings 21 (MIN -3.5)
Arizona Cardinals (4-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) (ARZ -4)
The Cardinals clearly have no qualms playing on the road. They drummed Chicago, especially against their hopeless backup QB, and then routed Detroit even worse. Pittsburgh is better than those teams, but the Cardinals blitz happy, athletic defense is a really bad matchup for this odd Michael Vick led offense. The Cardinals deep passing game should also work nicely against the Steelers. The Steelers really just need to tread water for a week or two before Roethlisberger comes back to still be in pretty nice shape, and even with a loss here that should still be very attainable.
Cardinals 27 Steelers 13 (ARZ -4)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) @ Buffalo Bills (3-2) (CIN -3)
The Bengals are good - and I think them not flinching for a second while down 24-7 to the Seahawks proves that. The Bills may or may not be good, but with EJ Manuel starting their chances are lower than before. The Bengals are a really solid team one that I don't think is appreciably worse on the road (certainly weren't in Oakland or Baltimore). This is a low enough line, one that could easily push I guess, but I like Cincinnati to continue their winning ways against a backup QB.
Bengals 24 Bills 13 (CIN -3)
Denver Broncos (5-0) @ Cleveland Browns (2-3) (DEN -4)
Another Top-6 team going on the road to play an average at best team, and another favorite that I like (I have a problem). The Broncos are an unbelievable defense right now, and even without Demarcus Ware they have matchup advantages everywhere on that side of the ball. The Broncos offense needs to get better, but the Browns defense, which has not been that good, provides a good opportunity, especially without Joe Haden and Tashaun Gibson. At some point they're going to have a break-out game.
Broncos 30 Browns 13 (DEN -4)
San Diego Chargers (2-3) @ Green Bay Packers (5-0) (GB -10.5)
I've picked favorites for way too many games, so here goes... I'll pick an underdog. No reason really, I guess the Chargers have this Rivers guy that is always capable of playing a shootout, and there is good backdoor cover chances here.
Chargers 24 Packers 31 (SD +10.5)
Baltimore Ravens (1-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-4) (BAL -2)
Hey, did you know these two teams played in Super Bowl XLVII? That was only three years ago!? Amazing, right?! Well, three years is a long time. I'm somewhat surprised the Ravens are favorites, a team that was rarely great on the road. The Ravens pass rush has gone to waste since Suggs left, and that is the best way to basically bottle up the 49ers offense. The 49ers defense is still oompetent unless their opponent has a ton of receiving options - which the Ravens do not. I like the 49ers getting points at home here.
Ravens 20 49ers 23 (SF +2)
Carolina Panthers (4-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-3) (SEA -7)
The last four times these teams played, all games with superior Seahawks teams than this one, the scores were 16-12, 12-7, 13-9 and 31-17. The 31-17 was 14-10 through three quarters. The Seahawks have serious issues on offense, and the Panthers are one of the most solid defenses in the NFL. My issue is that through two games in Seattle, no opposing offense has scored a TD (Calvin Johnson came three-inches away). That all said, I think the Seahawks pull it out (I can't imagine a 2-4 Seattle team), but for what has been a competitive series at the Seahawks best, I feel this line is too high.
Panthers 17 Seahawks 20 (CAR +7)
New England Patriots (4-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-2) (NE -9.5)
Why isn't this line -19.5?
Patriots 41 Colts 17 (NE -9.5)
New York Giants (3-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) (NYG +5)
I realize the Giants have had issues with health on defense, and I realize the Eagles gained all the yards last Sunday. I also realize how pathetic the Saints defense, and that any team with a competent defensive coaching staff and players has basically throttled this Eagles offense. The Giants defensive staff is competent, their run defense is good, and their offense matches up really well with the Eagles defense (they can handle pass rush well and take advantage against some suspect corners). The Giants are a good team, the Eagles are a bad team that had a good game - there is a difference.
Giants 27 Eagles 23 (NYG +5)
Enjoy the Games!!
Year-to-Date:
Atlanta Falcons (5-0) @ New Orleans Saints (1-4) (ATL -3.5)
I'm a little worried about the Falcons in this spot. Thursday Night games are anyway tough to pick, and historically they've not done too well in the Superdome over the years. The Saints are desperate, and after last week I'm not totally sold on how good the Falcons are. That all said, I'll still pick the Falcons because the line has all those issues built in. Something is just wrong in New Orleans right now.
Falcons 31 Saints 24 (ATL -3.5)
Houston Texans (1-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) (JAX -1.5)
I have no idea, and to be perfectly honest I don't honestly care one iota about this game. Like what is the point of even having these teams. I'll take the Texans because I don't like the idea of the Jaguars being favorites ever.
Texans 20 Jaguars 17 (HOU +1.5)
Chicago Bears (2-3) @ Detroit Lions (0-5) (DET -3)
Very surprised that the Lions, off of that abhorrent game at home, are favored here, but I kind of understand it. The Lions are not as bad as the team that gave no effort to Arizona; whether they are closer to the team that should have beaten Seattle in Seattle, I'm not sure. However, I think we all may be underrating the Bears. With Jay Cutler healthy for a full game, they are 2-1, with a close loss to Green Bay. The Bears may just be decent - I guess John Fox can coach.
Bears 23 Lions 21 (CHI +3)
Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Tennessee Titans (1-3) (TEN -1)
I love that this line is almost a pick-em (somehow, I bet on Bills -1 last week and pushed!!!), because there are reasons to like Miami. Very often, the first few games with an interim coach the team gets a boost. They are coming off of their bye. The Titans may not be all that good. They really blew that game to Buffalo. The Titans have a good young QB, someone may pass over Ryan Tannehill in the middle of the night as the next hope for the future of the AFC in the late 2010's. I like the Titans here with such a low line as I feel that we are all just off on the Dolphins.
Dolphins 17 Titans 23 (TEN -1)
Washington Redskins (2-3) @ New York Jets (3-1) (NYJ -7)
This is a really high line, but for a good reason: the Jets are very, very good at what they do well. Their defense is awesome, right up there with Denver as the league's best through the first five weeks. The last time we saw them the mercilessly blitzed an erratic Ryan Tannehill, and if not for a few pass interference penalties could have shut them out. The Redskins QB in Kirk Cousins may be one of the QBs who handles pressure worse than Tannehill. The other side of the ball favors the defense, but a little less with a team missing players in the secondary. I like a lot of favorites this week - partially because the lines are across-the-board lower this week than normal, and I feel like this could very easily be wrong given the overall points scored, but I'll take the Jets to cover.
Redskins 13 Jets 23 (NYJ -7)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (2-2) (MIN -3.5)
The Vikings are a good home team. They beat the Lions in a game not as close as the score, and then routed the Chargers 34-7 in a game probably slightly closer than the score. The Chiefs are at an all-time low right now, having lost Jamaal Charles and also lost a 17-3 lead at home against a bad Chicago team. Unless they rally for some unforseen reason, I have to like the Vikings to cover a low line. I really like way too many favorites this week.
Chiefs 16 Vikings 21 (MIN -3.5)
Arizona Cardinals (4-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) (ARZ -4)
The Cardinals clearly have no qualms playing on the road. They drummed Chicago, especially against their hopeless backup QB, and then routed Detroit even worse. Pittsburgh is better than those teams, but the Cardinals blitz happy, athletic defense is a really bad matchup for this odd Michael Vick led offense. The Cardinals deep passing game should also work nicely against the Steelers. The Steelers really just need to tread water for a week or two before Roethlisberger comes back to still be in pretty nice shape, and even with a loss here that should still be very attainable.
Cardinals 27 Steelers 13 (ARZ -4)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) @ Buffalo Bills (3-2) (CIN -3)
The Bengals are good - and I think them not flinching for a second while down 24-7 to the Seahawks proves that. The Bills may or may not be good, but with EJ Manuel starting their chances are lower than before. The Bengals are a really solid team one that I don't think is appreciably worse on the road (certainly weren't in Oakland or Baltimore). This is a low enough line, one that could easily push I guess, but I like Cincinnati to continue their winning ways against a backup QB.
Bengals 24 Bills 13 (CIN -3)
Denver Broncos (5-0) @ Cleveland Browns (2-3) (DEN -4)
Another Top-6 team going on the road to play an average at best team, and another favorite that I like (I have a problem). The Broncos are an unbelievable defense right now, and even without Demarcus Ware they have matchup advantages everywhere on that side of the ball. The Broncos offense needs to get better, but the Browns defense, which has not been that good, provides a good opportunity, especially without Joe Haden and Tashaun Gibson. At some point they're going to have a break-out game.
Broncos 30 Browns 13 (DEN -4)
San Diego Chargers (2-3) @ Green Bay Packers (5-0) (GB -10.5)
I've picked favorites for way too many games, so here goes... I'll pick an underdog. No reason really, I guess the Chargers have this Rivers guy that is always capable of playing a shootout, and there is good backdoor cover chances here.
Chargers 24 Packers 31 (SD +10.5)
Baltimore Ravens (1-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-4) (BAL -2)
Hey, did you know these two teams played in Super Bowl XLVII? That was only three years ago!? Amazing, right?! Well, three years is a long time. I'm somewhat surprised the Ravens are favorites, a team that was rarely great on the road. The Ravens pass rush has gone to waste since Suggs left, and that is the best way to basically bottle up the 49ers offense. The 49ers defense is still oompetent unless their opponent has a ton of receiving options - which the Ravens do not. I like the 49ers getting points at home here.
Ravens 20 49ers 23 (SF +2)
Carolina Panthers (4-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-3) (SEA -7)
The last four times these teams played, all games with superior Seahawks teams than this one, the scores were 16-12, 12-7, 13-9 and 31-17. The 31-17 was 14-10 through three quarters. The Seahawks have serious issues on offense, and the Panthers are one of the most solid defenses in the NFL. My issue is that through two games in Seattle, no opposing offense has scored a TD (Calvin Johnson came three-inches away). That all said, I think the Seahawks pull it out (I can't imagine a 2-4 Seattle team), but for what has been a competitive series at the Seahawks best, I feel this line is too high.
Panthers 17 Seahawks 20 (CAR +7)
New England Patriots (4-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-2) (NE -9.5)
Why isn't this line -19.5?
Patriots 41 Colts 17 (NE -9.5)
New York Giants (3-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) (NYG +5)
I realize the Giants have had issues with health on defense, and I realize the Eagles gained all the yards last Sunday. I also realize how pathetic the Saints defense, and that any team with a competent defensive coaching staff and players has basically throttled this Eagles offense. The Giants defensive staff is competent, their run defense is good, and their offense matches up really well with the Eagles defense (they can handle pass rush well and take advantage against some suspect corners). The Giants are a good team, the Eagles are a bad team that had a good game - there is a difference.
Giants 27 Eagles 23 (NYG +5)
Enjoy the Games!!
