NFL 2013: Week 11 Power Rankings

Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

VIKINGS (+1.5)  over  Redskins  (CORRECT  =  1-0)
Jaguars (+13)  over  TITANS  (CORRECT  =  2-0)
PACKERS (-1.5)  over  Eagles  (WRONG  =  2-1)
Bills (+3)  over  STEELERS  (WRONG  =  2-2)
Seahawks (-4.5)  over  FALCONS  (CORRECT  =  3-2)
GIANTS (-7.5)  over  Raiders  (WRONG  =  3-3)
Rams (+9.5)  over  COLTS  (CORRECT  =  4-3)
Bengals (-1.5)  over  RAVENS  (WRONG  =  4-4)
Lions (-1)  over  BEARS  (CORRECT  =  5-4)
CARDINALS (-3)  over  Texans  (PUSH  =  5-4-1)
Panthers (+6.5)  over  49ERS  (CORRECT  =  6-4-1)
Broncos (-7)  over  CHARGERS  (CORRECT  =  7-4-1)
SAINTS (-7)  over  Cowboys  (CORRECT  =  8-4-1)
BUCCANEERS (+2.5)  over  Dolphins  (CORRECT  =  9-4-1)

Week 10: 9-4-1

Year-to-Date: 84-61-2


Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (1-8  =  111-295)

I'm happy they got a win, no team deserves to go 0-16. It worked out OK for the Lions, who three years later were in the playoffs and five years later are in great position to win their division, but who knows if Teddy Bridgewater is a Matthew Stafford type player. Anyway, the Jaguars got their win. Now they can go back to being a historically bad team.


31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (1-8  =  146-209)

I'm happy they got a win, no team deserves to go 0-16. Of course, it didn't work out OK for the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who wouldn't make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for another 20 years. Also, the Buccaneers will probably still fire their coach and start all over again. However, they should go out and hire Lovie Smith, and do what the Chiefs are doing this year in 2014.


30.) Atlanta Falcons  (2-7  =  186-251)

The Falcons were 9-0 through nine games last year. Now they're 2-7. I hate to do this, but what would the reaction be if the same fate happens to the Chiefs next year? Would it be shock? Surprise? I don't think it would be as surprising as what has happened to Atlanta. Julio Jones meant a lot to that team, but so did so many of their pieces on defense. Matt Ryan deserves better than this, but chances are this is a one-year lag, not a long-term swim in mediocrity, like what could easily happen in Pittsburgh.


29.) Oakland Raiders  (3-6  =  166-223)

Ever since I, and so many other people, gave Terrelle Pryor so much love after a good game against Pittsburgh, with the Raiders at 3-4, Pryor has been bad, and the Raiders worse. Now, their defense played a lot better last week than it did against Philadelphia, but the offense isn't good enough yet. The future is bright with Oakland, as Pryor is still developing and Reggie McKenzie has a solid plan, but this is still a team devoid of a lot of talent.


28.) Minnesota Vikings  (2-7  =  220-279)

That was a good win for Minnesota. They didn't blink when falling down 27-10, scoring the last 24 points of the game. Ponder is expected to play in Seattle, and that is great news, because he's actually been very competent since regaining the starting job against Green Bay three weeks ago. The Vikings have intriguing pieces on offense (I won't lie, I forgot they had Greg Jennings). The defense is still terrible, but they can play a huge role in deciding the fate of the NFC North.


27.) Washington Redskins  (3-6  =  230-287)

As good as a win as that was for Minnesota, it was that bad a loss for Washington. They could have been tied in the loss column with the Eagles and Cowboys. Instead, they are tied with the Giants. Many people will point to the Redskins being 3-6 last year through 10 games and coming back to win the division, but winning 7 straight games to end a season from 3-6 is pretty much unprecedented. They won't need to go 10-6 to win the division, but even a 6-1 finish seems really unlikely with games against all of their NFC East foes still to come, and games against the 49ers and Chiefs.


26.) Houston Texans  (2-7  =  170-248)

The Falcons are shocking, but the Texans being 2-7, especially after a 2-0 start, is equally, if not more, shocking. The weird part is the team is actually playing pretty well. Andre Johnson is having another stellar year. The defense is playing decently well, and JJ Watt has staved off natural regression better than anyone could imagine. What is different? They've been extremely unlucky in giving up defensive TDs, and their kicking has been awful. They could be a massive late season spoiler.


25.) Tennessee Titans  (4-5  =  200-196)

The Titans will rue that loss. They have tiebreak wins over the Jets and Chargers, but that might not matter. Their schedule is tough coming up (Colts twice, Broncos still to come), and they can't just give away games to one of the worst teams ever. I feel bad for Jake Locker. At this point, he's basically proven injury-prone. I wish I could see him play a full season, but that may not ever happen. Still, I think he's easily the best of the three overdrafted QBs from the 2011 draft (Locker, Gabbert, Ponder).


24.) Buffalo Bills  (3-7  =  199-259)

That was a terrible performance in Pittsburgh. I get it, Dick LeBeau's defense has been amazing against rookies. But this is the worst Dick LeBeau defense in eons. The Bills had a chance to stay somewhat relevant in the Wild Card race and just blew it with a lifeless performance. They have spoiler potential coming up, but I can't imagine them doing too much with games like that. I still like the Doug Marrone hiring long term, but this might be a bad finish to an otherwise good season.


23.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (3-6  =  179-218)

The Steelers might fall into the trap of focusing on their good games and forgetting about the bad ones. Who are the real Steelers? The team that beat the Jets in New York 19-6, and beat the Bills 23-10, or the team that lost to a Matt Cassel-led Vikings team in London and were waxed by New England 55-31? I honestly think they're closer to the latter. The Steelers just don't have good enough personnel on defense, and I think that won't change until the leadership does. One thing I do know is that the answer is not trading away Ben Roethlisberger. This isn't baseball. One Great QB is worth more than two 1st-round picks.


22.) Miami Dolphins  (4-5  =  193-209)

I'll credit the Dolphins for coming back after starting out miserably against Tampa Bay. That showed some ability to look past the ridiculous stuff going on in Miami right now. I don't want to comment on that situation, and because no one cares what I would say, I won't. The Dolphins, as a team, are still built well, but their O-Line is so bad, and Ryan Tannehill's pocket presence so equally bad, that it won't matter. They are still in the Wild Card hunt, but they need to turn this around, now.


21.) Cleveland Browns  (4-5  =  172-197)

The Browns are somehow just a game back in the wild card race. I still can't imagine them getting there just because of their remaining schedule (4 road games, all against decent teams, if not better, home game against Chicago), but the Browns are definitely in the race. I don't know what this team is long term, because they still don't have a QB, and it never worked for Mike Lombardi before, but I'll give the man some credit. They've played well.


20.) Baltimore Ravens  (4-5  =  188-189)

They overcame the Hail Mary going against them, and that takes a lot. They basically produced their only offensive drive of note since the 1st quarter in OT to steal the win. I really wanted them to lose just so Ravens' fans can come close to realizing what pain it was for Denver (and Manning) fans when the Ravens got their Hail Mary last year in the playoffs. That Ravens defense is really good, and if they do sneak into the playoffs, well, we've seen it before.


19.) St. Louis Rams  (4-6  =  224-234)

Well, that was surprising. That was just shocking. That was the ideal Jeff Fisher game. Get some huge plays, play solid defense, not have to do too much on offense in terms of consistent drives, and just stop teams drive after drive. Jeff Fisher didn't get many chances to do that to the Colts in his tenure in Tennessee, but he took it all out on them. Nice to see Tavon Austin have a breakout game. He can be special, but they have to find ways to consistently get him the ball outside of playing the Colts defense.


18.) Dallas Cowboys  (5-5  =  274-258)

The Cowboys just had one of the most embarrassing performances I have ever seen. Their defense was so unrepetently bad it goes beyond words. I can't imagine that defense holding up, with the ridiculous amount of injuries, but here they are, tied for 1st place in the division, with their 2nd game against the Eagles in Dallas. They have to throw Dez the ball more than twice. It honestly seemed like they just gave up.


17.) New York Giants  (3-6  =  165-243)

Somehow, the Giants have a legitimate top-10 defense right now. The points allowed total doesn't match, mainly because of early season results, and special teams, and Eli pick-sixes, but the defense itself has been really good for a while now. The D-Line is slowly getting back to form, and the secondary has been really good for most of the season. Prince Amukamara is having a really nice season, and Antrel Rolle continues to quietly be one of the league's best safeties.


16.) Green Bay Packers  (5-4  =  245-212)

This ranking is still going off the idea that Aaron Rodgers is not coming back until after the Thanksgiving Game in Detroit. Honestly, I'm more pessimistic than before, because unless the backup is going to be a long term good player, backups generally play well in their first start and then become worse as teams get more tape on those teams. The Packers didn't look that great against Philadelphia, and while their schedule is still easy coming up, they can't really afford to lose two more games, as they lose the tiebreaker to San Francisco (the current #6 seed).


15.) San Diego Chargers  (4-5  =  212-202)

Well, the Chargers are still in it because no one is running away with that #6 seed, but they might have to win two of their remaining three games against the Chiefs and Broncos, which will be really hard. They have a chance to get a tiebreaker over Miami this week, but losses like Washington and Tennessee will keep this team out of the playoffs just like strange losses kept them out in 2010 and almost did in 2008, despite similarly good seasons by Philip Rivers.


14.) Philadelphia Eagles  (5-5  =  252-244)

It's almost like the Eagles are somehow under the radar now. After they put up 10 points combined in two home game losses, people just assumed they were dead. Well, they are now tied for first place, with an easier schedule ahead than Dallas. Their division record is worse (as in 2-2 vs. 3-0), but all they really have to do is start being able to win home games. One last quibble, Nick Foles might be the Greatest QB EVARR!!, but he was terrible in the two-thirds of the game he played against Dallas.


13.) New York Jets  (5-4  =  169-231)

That must have been a nice bye week for the Jets, who in not playing, gained sole possession of the #6 seed in the AFC. It is in their hands. It is right there for the taking. The Titans, who have a tiebreaker over them, lost. The Chargers lost. They have a chance to effectively end this themselves, since they have 5-loss Baltimore, Cleveland and Miami (twice) still on the schedule.


12.) Arizona Cardinals  (5-4  =  187-198)

I said this three weeks ago, that the Cardinals have a quietly cushy schedule ahead of them, and could make a silent playoff push. They probably won't get there, since playing both Seattle and San Francisco in Weeks 16-17 is not a good recipe to make it, but how much fun would a Week 17 game between the 49ers and Cardinals in Arizona for the #6 seed. I really want that to happen. I'll give the Cardinals fans never-ending credit for continuing to be a really good home fanbase after the Warner era ended.


11.) Chicago Bears  (5-4  =  259-247)

Tough loss in what was a really good game. Yes, Jay Cutler looked rusty, but I think it is unfair to criticize Marc Trestman for bringing him back too soon. First, it is totally hypocritical to do this since Cutler caught a stupid amount of shit for not coming back too soon in the NFC Championship Game three years ago. But mostly, because his new injury is a different one. They weren't related. And while he wasn't playing well, he wasn't exactly playing badly either. They just lost a hard-fought game to a good team. It happens.


10.) Indianapolis Colts  (6-3  =  222-193)

Well, that was a disaster. If they lose on Thursday, this could be the real first time Irsay/Grigson/Pagano are questioned since the start of last season. I don't think they will, but the Colts had a shot at a bye, and they still do, but they can't fail to show up this often. Usually, they are able to keep it close enough and figure it out, but that never happened. I'm not afraid to say it: Andrew Luck is being overrated. He's a very good player. He's the 3rd best QB in the AFC based purely on play in 2013, but that says a lot more about the state of the AFC than it does about Luck. I'm fearful of Colts fans who I respect starting to use the same defenses Patriots fans used to use for Brady in defending and praising Luck. Luck will be great. I believe he could be a Top-3 QB legitimately by 2015. He's not there yet, and the team around him isn't good enough to make up for when he plays badly.


9.) Kansas City Chiefs  (9-0  =  215-111)

Ryan Fitzpatrick. Terrelle Pryor. Case Keenum. Jason Campbell. Jeff Tuel. Those were the last five QBs the Kansas City Chiefs have faced. They won those games by 9, 17, 1, 6, 10. That period is over. The rest of the QBs go: Manning, Rivers, Manning, Griffin, Pryor, Luck, Rivers. Only one less than good QB in that bunch, and four elite ones. I think the Chiefs get slightly exposed. They're not a bad team, but they're not a 9-0 team either.


8.) Cincinnati Bengals  (6-4  =  234-186)

Before people start freaking out about the Bengals, the last two losses were both against decent, desperate teams on the road and both in OT. The Bengals are still a good team, clearly the best in the AFC North when you look at their larger performance metrics. They should still win that division, and a win this weekend in Cleveland goes a long way to ending it. The Bengals problem, oddly, wasn't on defense without Atkins, but offense, but that offense plays well at home, and if they win all their remaining home games, they'll be fine. If the Patriots fall back a bit, they still have an outside shot at the #2 seed with the head-to-head win.


7.) San Francisco 49ers  (6-3  =  227-155)

I don't want to make too much of one game, but Kaepernick looks totally lost. I never thought he was the most accurate thrower in coverage, and with a scheme that has been somewhat figured out, reducing confusion, and receivers who don't get separation as much, he has to throw in traffic. It isn't working. He's only crossed 200 yards once since his 412 yard performance in Week 1. That's unconscionable. The 49eres are starting to get their guys back, so there still could be life, but to me, they seem a little but like the Chiefs of the NFC, but a team with a more realistic record.


6.) Detroit Lions  (6-3  =  238-216)

Big win. Huge win. Season defining win. It should be all of those things, and if the Lions play as well as they should, it will be all of those things. They have the league's easiest schedule going forward, with their toughest remaining game by record being at home, on a short week, against a team that could easily be starting its backup QB. The Lions, in all seriousness, could easily get the #1 seed. What has come of this world?


5.) New England Patriots  (7-2  =  234-175)

The Patriots never looked good early. Were one first down away from losing to Buffalo in Week 1, and one stupid offensive series by New Orleans away from losing to the Saints, and while those bad performance might be a sign of a team that is worse than its record, it could also be a sign to the NFL that people should have taken advantage when they could. The most interesting thing for New England will be to see if their offense can carry on what they did against Pittsburgh, or was that a one-game mirage in a lifeless season, like their 59-0 thumping of Tennessee was in 2009.


4.) Carolina Panthers  (6-3  =  214-115)

No matter what happens the rest of the season, Ron Rivera should be the long term coach for this team. He's got a team that is playing better defense than anyone else in the NFL, and that is with a still average secondary. He's learned from his 4th-down mistakes and is now as aggressive as anyone in the NFL. They have another statement game coming up, this time at home. It can really go one of two ways. It can be like an infamous Patriots MNF game around this time of the year in 2009, when the Saints had their National Coronation in a 38-17 win, or it can be like what happened to Houston in what was supposed to be their National coming out party in last year on MNF in Foxboro. I have a bad feeling the Panthers might be a little too pumped in this game at home.


3.) New Orleans Saints  (7-2  =  265-163)

Drew Brees had put up great stats in their home games so far, but that was the first time the Saints offense really resembled what they were at home in 2011, when they average 40+ points and nearly 450 yards in their home games. 60 first downs is absurd. 242 yards rushing when you also throw for 380 is absurd. The defense holding Dallas, in that same game, to under 200 yards is more absurd. That might have been the single best performance this year. The problem for New Orleans is they haven't been nearly as good on the road, and they'll most likely have to win a certain game on the road to avoid having to win games on the road in the playoffs.


2.) Seattle Seahawks  (9-1  =  265-159)

The Seahawks finally came out and put the hammer down after a few questionable performances against St. Louis and Tampa Bay. In a way, why was anyone surprised? Despite Atlanta's record and position this year, that was a revenge game for Seattle after they lost in Atlanta in the playoffs last year. The Seahawks are getting Sidney Rice back, and I think there are two big goals for them in the rest of the regular season: 1 - lock down home field; 2 - get Sidney Rice acclimated to this offense.


1.) Denver Broncos  (8-1  =  371-238)

These three weeks will define the Broncos season (unless Peyton Manning wants to win a Super Bowl in the most un-Manning way and win some road playoff games), so of course this is when Manning's health will be at its most questionable. I honestly think Manning is overplaying this. He won't tell the media that he's getting an MRI if it was serious. He looked fine against San Diego, and if not for some drops, they tack on some more points in the 2nd half. His deep throws also looked like they had more life against San Diego than they did before. The best news for Denver, though, was that their defense continues to get better each week and resemble the dynamic unit they had last year. Quietly, Shaun Phillips has replaced Elvis Dumervil rather well.



Playoff Projections

AFC
1.) Denver Broncos  (14-2)
2.) New England Patriots  (12-4)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals  (11-5)
4.) Indianapolis Colts  (11-5)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs  (12-4)
6.) New York Jets  (9-7)


NFC

1.) Seattle Seahawks  (13-3)
2.) Carolina Panthers  (12-4)
3.) Detroit Lions  (12-4)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles  (9-7)
5.) San Francisco 49ers  (12-4)
6.) New Orleans Saints  (11-5)


Looking Forward to Next Weeks Games

Byes: Dallas (5-5), St. louis (4-6)

14.) Atlanta Falcons (2-7)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Arizona Cardinals (5-4)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Oakland Raiders (3-6)  @  Houston Texans (2-7)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Minnesota Vikings (2-7)  @  Seattle Seahawks (9-1)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it the "There's still some bad games in a good weekend" Sunday, as these four games are the ones every can just look past. Luckily, none of them will be broadcast in the NYC & Philly TV markets, which makes me happy. None of them have any real storylines, unless the Cardinals/Jaguars game gets close, as the Cardinals are the only real bubble-team in this mix.


10.) Green Bay Packers (5-4)  @  New York Giants (3-6)  (4:25 - FOX)
9.) Detroit Lions (6-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Can My Preseason Black Marks Make Me Happy" Sunday, as the 3-6 Giants and 3-6 Steelers, two teams I predicted to go 12-4 before the season, try to continue to claw out of their early season terribleness and save their seasons. The Steelers are only two games back of the Jets (and they beat the Jets), and the Giants are only one game back in the loss column of Philly and Dallas. The Packers will also try to keep pace with the Lions, or maybe tie them up if the Lions lose early.


8.) New York Jets (5-4)  @  Buffalo Bills (3-7)  (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Washington Redskins (3-6)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Indianapolis Colts (6-3)  @  Tennessee Titans (4-5)  (TNF - NFLN)
5.) Cleveland Browns (4-5)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "The Underrated Division Rivalry" Sunday, as these are four division games that all have some interesting playoff implications, but are overshadowed by the four go come. The most interesting is Browns @ Bengals, as the Browns can essentially take the lead on Cincinnati with a win (season sweep). The Titans can also close the game. The Redskins can also tie the Eagles in the loss column, but let's be real, I hate that NFC East race, and finally, the Jets can basically eliminate the Bills and can get a huge win to stay in pole position for the #6 seed.


4.) San Diego Chargers (4-5)  @  Miami Dolphins (4-5)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Bubble-Watch" Sunday, as the Chargers and Dolphins, both with five losses, get to fight to claim the spot as the likeliest team to overtake the Jets. The Chargers need this game more, considering the Dolphins still get to play the Jets twice head-to-head. This is also the Dolphins first home game after all that madness started in full.


3.) San Francisco 49ers (6-3)  @  New Orleans Saints (7-2)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Can Anyone Kill the Saints at Home Myth?" Sunday, as the 49ers return to the place of Colin Kaepernick's first real triumph (locking down the starting job in a 31-21 win over New Orleans last year), and his lowest moment (Super Bowl loss). The Saints have been untouchable at home (ironically, the Falcons are the only team that came close to beating them there), but the 49ers are a team good enough to give the Saints a load of problems at home.


2.) New England Patriots (7-2)  @  Carolina Panthers (6-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Finally a Good MNF Game" Monday, as ESPN gets their money's worth. Actually, ESPN is getting their money's worth for most of the rest of the season, but it starts here. After Tirico & Gruden having to pump up shitty games, they get a great one. The #2 team in the AFC vs. the hottest team in the NFL. Can it get better?


1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)  @  Denver Broncos (8-1)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Big Game, but the Game 2 Weeks Fromm Now is Bigger" Sunday, and yes, this is better. The Chiefs get their first real test since early in the season. The Broncos get a chance to make up for their SNF loss to the Colts and regain control of the division. Of course, everyone should remember that the return leg in Arrowhead is in just two weeks, and whoever wins this game could give their edge right back in two weeks.

NFL 2013: Week 10 Picks

Washington Redskins (3-5)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-7)  (WAS -1.5)

In my Excel-starring projection of the 2nd Half of the NFL season, I had the Vikings winning this game, and I still think they do. Home teams cover on Thursday Night two out of three times. It is just a massive advantage, especially when there is a considerable distance that the road team has to travel. I really don't have much in a way of a breakdown, but I like what I saw in the Vikings last week with Ponder. I think he's a stablizing presence after they dealt with Cassel and Freeman.

Redskins 20  Vikings 27  (MIN +1.5)


Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8)  @  Tennessee Titans (4-4)  (TEN -13)

Like most Jaguars games this year, the spread is high enough to make it against any trend to bet against the Jaguars. Of course, they're 1-7 ATS (the win being the 26.5 point line against Denver). I'll continue to back the trend, but more and more evidence is showing that the 2013 Jaguars are one of the worst teams ever.

Jaguars 17  Titans 27  (JAX +13)


Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)  @  Green Bay Packers (5-3)  (PHI -1.5)

For most of the week, the line was off the board as Vegas had to figure out how to react to Rodgers injury. Well, what do you know? Everyone's overreacting to the injury. The Packers are still the home team. I mean, how many points is Rodgers worth? What would the line have been if Rodgers was healthy? I think this is an overreaction, and I can see the Packers team (who is getting Matthews and Jones back) rallying around Seneca Wallace for at least one week at home.

Eagles 23  Packers 27  (GB -1.5)


Buffalo Bills (3-6)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)  (PIT -3)
It's pretty amazing that the Steelers have the worse record coming into this game. Obviously, since I picked them to go 12-4, I'm pretty stunned. I honestly bought into the Steelers mystique and overlooked that there are major, systemic problems with that organization right now. The Bills have a plan, I don't know if the Steelers do. I can see that crowd being a little slow in this game, leading to the healthy EJ Manuel being calm and not flustered. I've done a 180 on the Steelers, and while i picked them in my 2nd Half projections, I'm going against that now and picking the Bills to cover and win outright.

Bills 26  @  Steelers 23  (BUF +3)


Seattle Seahawks (8-1)  @  Atlanta Falcons (2-6)  (SEA -4.5)

This should have been an exciting game, a rematch of a thrilling divisional round game from a year ago, a litmus test for the Seahawks on the road. Instead, it is still a litmus test, but for the opposite reason. Despite winning four straight, there are concerns about the Seahawks, and those are founded. I just don't think the Falcons are a team that can take advantage of them. The Falcons can't run the ball and have a tough time getting pressure on the passer, the two easiest ways to control this Seattle team. Despite Roddy White returning, I just don't see the Falcons of having a good shot of covering this game.

Seahawks 27  Falcons 16  (SEA -4.5)


Oakland Raiders (3-5)  @  New York Giants (2-6)  (NYG -7.5)

This is a high line for the Giants, but let's remember what the Raiders are right now. They won't have McFadden, and their defense was putrid last week. It can't be that bad again on that side of the ball, but it doesn't need to be. The Giants had a week off, and the Raiders have to fly cross-country. It is a high line, and trusting a 2-6 team with that line isn't easy, but I think this is as safe a situation as that could ever be.

Raiders 21  Giants 31  (NYG -7.5)


St. Louis Rams (3-6)  @  Indianapolis Colts (6-2)  (IND -9.5)
This line, though, is way too high. The Colts haven't been able to blow out anyone but Jacksonville. Their last two games against less-than-great competition they've started slow and either lost or not covered. Kellen Clemens looks competent in the Rams offense, adn Zack Stacy should have a good game against a bad Colts rush defense. The Colts are good enough to still win the game despite all of these issues, but the Colts have a habit of playing down to their competition, and I can see that happening here.

Rams 19  Colts 27  (STL +9.5)


Cincinnati Bengals (6-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (3-5)  (CIN -1.5)

Can the Ravens really lose four in a row? Can they really lose two straight road games? Can the Bengals throw the hammer down and eliminate the Ravens from the AFC North race? I'm happy the line is low, because it should be. This is a tough game for the Bengals. The Ravens defense has played well at home, and you have to figure that their run game might finally have a good game without needing to block for Geno Atkins. Still, I think the Bengals are just better and are good enough to win this game. Since covering allows a win by even less than a field goal, that is a safe cover bet.

Bengals 20  Ravens 16  (CIN -1.5)


Detroit Lions (5-3)  @  Chicago Bears (5-3)  (DET -1)

A lot of what I wrote about the Bengals @ Ravens game applies here, but the Bears are a lot better than the Ravens. Honestly, I don't know why the Lions are favored here. One advantage the Lions have here is they're playing off of a bye against a team coming off a MNF game. I don't know off hand, but that has to be an edge for Detroit. The Bears get Cutler back, but he may not be 100%, and this is the type of game where Bad Jay Cutler might show up. I hate picking so many road favorites to cover (this is the 3rd one), but I'll just hope for 2 out of 3.

Lions 27  Bears 24  (DET -1)


Houston Texans (2-6)  @  Arizona Cardinals (5-4)  (ARZ -3)

This line seems really low, as it implies that the Texans and Cardinals are even, and that cannot be true. The Cardinals are 2.5 games better, they are really good at home, their defense should dominate the Texans offense. The only problem is the Texans defense could do the same to the Cardinals offense, but all I need is a field goal win to cover. It makes sense that they should win this game. They are just better and the three points is great, great value.

Texans 13  Cardinals 23  (ARZ -3)


Carolina Panthers (5-3)  @  San Francisco 49ers (6-2)  (SF -6.5)

This might be the strangest line of the week. There is no way if this game was played today in Carolina the 49ers should be favored, as this line suggests. The Panthers defense is better than San Francisco's, even with Aldon Smith coming back. The 49ers O-Line hasn't been as dominant this year, and this is the first time since the first Seahawks game that the 49ers will have to throw the ball to win. I don;t think they will be able to. The greatest bit of pause I have is the 49ers are coming off of a bye, but in the Harbaugh era, the 49ers have mustered a soulless 20-10 win over Cleveland in 2011 and the tie against St. Louis after their byes.

Panthers 23  49ers 20  (CAR +6.5)


Denver Broncos (7-1)  @  San Diego Chargers (4-4)  (DEN -7)

The Broncos are coming off of a bye, where Peyton Manning should be more healed from his ankle injury (not that it effected him much against Washington), and the defensive guys that were back at half-mast against Washington (Woodyard, Ayers), should be back in full. The Broncos needed that break and I think they'll make good use of it. The Chargers are a good team, but they're coming off of a demoralizing OT loss, and that passing game has lost some of its effectiveness since the early part of this season. I like the Broncos chances to start a big 2nd half run now.

Broncos 34  Chargers 21  (DEN -7)


Dallas Cowboys (5-4)  @  New Orleans Saints (6-2)  (NO -7)

The line might be a little high, but what is going for Dallas here? Their defense has alternated between mediocre and awful. The Saints offense has been amazing at home, and they've won and covered their last 12 home games, which is kind of ridiculous. The Cowboys scored a big win in New Orleans in 2009, but that was a far better defensive Cowboys team. This Cowboys team just doesn't have the horses to do that.

Cowboys 23  Saints 35  (NO -7)


Miami Dolphins (4-4)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)  (MIA -2.5)

I have nothing to say about this game. Both teams have issues. Both teams are breaking down before our eyes. I have no desire to watch this game, and barely any desire to pick it.

Dolphins 17  Buccaneers 20  (TB +2.5)


Enjoy the Games!!

NFL 2013: Midseason Review, Pt. 2 - Projecting the Second Half

Each year when the schedule comes out, I create an excel spreadsheet here I put in each teams schedule and try to choose a simple winner/loser for each game and see how teams stack up. Now, I'm rarely right (the closest I came was in 2010, picking 9 or the 12 playoff teams correctly preseason), but it is a fun exercise. So, I'm going to do that again, and put my guesses here as my predictions for how the 2nd half goes.

A few notes:

• I'm assuming Aaron Rodgers misses four games (vs.PHI, @NYG, vs.MIN, @DET)
• These won't impact my Weekly picks. They probably will align this week, but either way I'm picking ATS.
• Yeah, that's it.

Now the Division-by-Division

AFC East

New England Patriots: 11-5 (4); Despite their big win, I don't consider the Patriots a great team, anything close to their recent ones. They have a tough finishing schedule, with more road games than home ones. It's probably a bad choice to have them losing two straight off a bye, but I don't think they're a great team.

New York Jets: 10-6 (6); I think the Jets finally win two in a row, and actually do that three times. They have an easy schedule. The key for the Jets was to be in striking distance heading into their bye. Not only are they in striking distance, they're the front-runner for this sixth seed.

Miami Dolphins: 7-9; I don't think the Dolphins have a good home field advantage, so picking them to lose a bunch of home games isn't that ridiculous. They have a touch finishing schedule. What I'm not confident at all is picking them to get swept by the Jets. I'm sure the Chargers hope I'm wrong there.

Buffalo Bills: 5-11; The Bills schedule is just too tough. Of course, I'm pessimistic on them, picking them to lose to the Falcons, Steelers and Buccaneers, but hey, those teams have to win games sooner or later.


AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals: 12-4 (2); The Bengals are in the envious position of being able to hold tiebreakers over both the Patriots and Colts, their two most likely competitors for the #2 seed (assuming the AFC West winner gets the #1, or at least a bye). Having the Colts game at home is huge. They have just three road games left, and if they go 2-1 in those games, I don't see how they don't win the division.

Baltimore Ravens: 7-9; I foresee a very strange second half for the Ravens. First, they lose two more games to finish off a five game losing streak, dropping to 3-7, then they'll win four in a row, including a huge win in Detroit (I picked few true upsets, but that is one of them), before dropping their last two. In my scenario, they could win Week 17, as if everything goes according to my plan, that is a meaningless game for the Bengals.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-11; The Steelers are 2-6, and their schedule actually gets tougher, with games against Detroit, Cincinnati and Green Bay, when Rodgers is probably back, left. Now, some of these tough ones are at home, but the Steelers aren't going to suddenly get better.

Cleveland Browns: 5-11; Predicting them to go just 1-6 to finish the season might be extreme, but four are on the road (they're only road win is against Minnesota), and the schedule just gets tougher. Outside of Pittsburgh, none of those non-Jaguars games have the Browns as the better team.


AFC South

Indianapolis Colts: 11-5 (3); The Colts are winning this division. That enough is obvious. The key question is can they nab a first round bye. The Colts right now are behind New England even if Colts win next week and level at 7-2 with the Patriots. This is due to their loss to Miami. Most of their common games are left. The way I worked this out, they're eve, with each team sweeping Houston, New England splitting with Miami (to Indy's loss), and both losing to Cincinnati. Where does Indy get the #3 seed, their win over Denver.

Tennessee Titans: 8-8; The Titans were one of the major surprises, and possibly could still be had Jake Locker not gotten hurt. I think the Titans are what they are. They'll beat teams worse than them, they'll lose to those better than them. I won't be surprised if they split with Tennessee.

Houston Texans: 5-11; What a complete disaster of a season for Houston. I think they'll win a few games, mainly because they still have two against Jacksonville. Picking them to lose every other game they play miht not be smart, but how could I pick them at this point.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 0-16; They have the worst DVOA ever through 9 weeks (since 1989). They lost their best offensive player. They're schedule isn't even that easy. The have a shot in that three-game homestand to pull a win, but it would be wrong to pick them.


AFC West

Denver Broncos: 15-1 (1); I think the Broncos win out. They're just better than the Chiefs, and the only game I think is a toss-up is their visit to New England, but Manning rarely loses at night (especially to the Pats, all his wins against New England in recent years have come in primetime). They might sit that Week 17 game, so I guess they could lose there.

Kansas City Chiefs; 12-4 (5); The Chiefs are 9-0, and recent results indicate to me that they are one of the worst 9-0 teams ever, barely worse than the 2006 Colts. I think they'll get a rude awakening, with five games left against the three best AFC QBs this year. I think they beat Indy because I don't know if Indy is ready to win a road game like that. They'll have nothing to play for in Week 17, but I might pick the Chargers even if they did.

San Diego Chargers: 9-7; The Chargers will rue that loss to Washington, as that, to me, will keep them out of the playoffs. I have them going 1-3 against the Chiefs and Broncos, and winning everything else, but that only gives them 9 wins. That could easily be enough, but I have them just outside.

Oakland Raiders: 4-12; Even though I think the Raiders go just 1-7 the rest of the way (note, the 'W' for te vs PHI game is a misprint, but the record counter is correct at 3-5), they'll be one of the more entertaining 4-12 teams in recent memory, a more entertaining and hopeful 4-12 than the Raiders were in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2012.


NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (4); This division is so damn hard to forceast. I don't think the Cowboys are going to win any road games apparently (probably went overboard on that one), but for once, the Cowboys get the potential win-and-your-in Week 17 game in their building, and that's the edge I give the Cowboys.

New York Giants: 7-9; From 0-6 to 7-9 is pretty good work. I actually think what will kill them is those road games. The Lions and Chargers are both, to me, better teams, and the Giants seem to have yearly problems with beating the Seahawks. I would love to be right to see the Giants beat both Green Bay and Seattle, but still not accomplish their miracle run to the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9; There might not be a better Jekyll & Hyde team all decade. What are teh Eagles. The team that scored 10 points in two games, or 49 in 3.25 quarters? Anyway, I'm going with the whole "they'll beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones" routine, except for a loss in Minnesota.

Washington Redskins: 6-10; That win over the Chargers overscores the larger problem with the Redskins. I think they lose on Thursday, and keep losing. I did give them the biggest perceived upset win of the second half, in beating the 49ers.


NFC North

Detroit Lions: 12-4 (2); The Lions are the team that will benefit the most from Rodgers injury, in my opinion. It seems likely that they won't have to face Rodgers on Thanksgiving, and although it would be very Lion-ish for them to lose that game, I can't see it. The rest of their schedule is easy. If they don't lose games they shouldn't this team should win the division.

Green Bay Packers: 10-6; That Aaron Rodgers injury ruins that team. I actually have them going 1-2 in the three games people through Rodgers would miss. I assumed Rodgers was missing the Thanksgiving game as well. If they don't lose to Dallas, they have a chance, but that could easily be Rodgers first game back.

Chicago Bears: 10-6; Having two 10-win teams not make the playoffs in the same conference is not unheard of. In fact, it happened in the NFC just three years ago (in 2010, both Tampa and the Giants went 10-6 and missed the playoffs). The Bears have an easy schedule, but a whole bunch of road games. I can't see them going 4-0 in road games, even if they're the better team on paper in all of them.

Minnesota Vikings: 2-14; That 10-6 season is going to look like more and more of a mirage. I probably could have thrown them a bone and given them a win against Philly at home, but the real issue is that that is not an easy schedule. It's slightly easier since Rodgers won't be there in the Packers game, but they'll have a tough time beating the Packers even without him.


NFC South

Carolina Panthers: 12-4 (3); Yup, I think this is happening. They have a hard schedule, but they're also really, really good. Is it likely that they week @SF/vs.NE? I'm sure most won't pick it, but I think it happens. The Panthers are just a really, really good team.

New Orleans Saints: 11-5 (6); I thought they were playing with fire the whole season with that defense and they are just so bad against the run. That is not a good recipe when you have to play the 49ers, Seahawks and Panthers twice in the remainder of the schedule. The Saints won't fall out of the playoff picture, but at 5-0 and 20 seconds away from beating New England, the #1 seed wasn't out of the question.

Atlanta Falcons: 4-12; They might steal some of these games I predicted them to lose (Green Bay, if Rodgers is still out), but that is a tough schedule and they look so lost without so many of their players. Because they're already out of it, people won't mention them as being as injured as New England or Green Bay, but they are.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2-14; They are better than a normal 0-8 team, but looking at that schedule, who are they beating? They're home games are against tough teams, and their road games are against three teams that are definitely better, and a Rams team that probably is.


NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: 13-3 (1); Ever since they escaped in Week 1 with a win in Carolina, they've been a team of destiny for that #1 seed. They probably should be no better than 6-3 right now, but they are better. That schedule only gets easier these next two weeks. They only have one 10AM PST game left. They should fly to that 1st overall seed.

San Franscisco 49ers: 12-4 (5); We might have the best set of #5 seeds since realignment, with the Chiefs/Broncos and 49ers. I think they're 2nd half will eerily resemble the first half. They start 1-2, with beating one high powered offensive team, and then win five in a row to finish it.

Arizona Cardinals: 9-7; The Cardinals schedule really is easy. The upcoming six games are all winnable. Now, I can't see them winning all six, because after all, they are still the Cardinals, but there is a chance they are 10-4 heading into those last two games. They might even have a shot of beating the 49ers at home.

St. Louis Rams: 5-11; With Sam Bradford playing, this time might have approached .500 again, but probably they would have a similar record, just more close losses. That is a tough schedule. I still like the Rams long term, but this is as tough a division as advertised.

NFL 2013: Midseason Review, Pt. 1

Most of my preseason italicized predictions are all wrong, so I'm not even going to go back over those.

Instead, I'm going to do the following for my Midseason Review

1.) Award Races
2.) 1st-Half All-Pros
3.) Predicting Each game of the 2nd Half and the Division Races (2nd post)


Handicapping the Award Races

MVP

1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
2.) Drew Brees (QB - NO)
3.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
4.) Muhammad Wilkerson (DT - NYJ)
5.) Andrew Luck (QB - IND)

Hon. Mention: Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)


With Rodgers essentially injuring himself out of the race (if he misses three games, he's basically done), there's really no good argument for anyone other than Peyton Manning. Calvin has a shot, but historically, WRs never get any MVP love (the only recent name I can think of was Steve Smith in 2005). Rodgers was basically the only one who's stats were in Manning's stratosphere and had to deal with injuries to skill position players. Lost in what has been just great play instead of best-of-all-time play, Peyton Manning is still on pace for 5,800 yards and 58 TDs. Even if he ends up with 5,100 yards and 51 TDs, he's getting the MVP. He deserved it last year, and he deserves it more this year.


Offensive Player of the Year

1.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR-DET)
3.) Jimmy Graham (TE-NO)
4.) Philip Rivers (QB-SD)
5.) Drew Brees (QB-NO)

Peyton Manning deserves this for the same reason he deserves the MVP. He's having a season that no one has approached in terms of volume. His efficiency has now dropped below his '04 season, as well as Brady's '07, but as a player who could easily break both the yardage and TD record, that should be enough to win this award. Calvin Johnon's pace is slightly less than last year, but he's having another ridiculous season and getting better by the week. Graham is on pace to break some of Gronk's numbers from 2011. Rivers and Brees are having the 2nd and 3rd best seasons of any QB statistically, not counting the injured Rodgers.


Defensive Player of the Year

1.) JJ Watt (DE-HOU)
2.) Muhammad Wilkerson (DT-NYJ)
3.) Justin Houston (DE-KC)
4.) Robert Mathis (OLB-IND)
5.) Richard Sherman (CB-SEA)

Watt probably won't win the award, because he's not having the season he was last year, numbers-wise, but he's been about as disruptive overall, and is still the best defensive player in the NFL. I have Wilkerson ranked ahead of Houston because he's been better against the run and doesn't have pro bowlers all around him on defense. Wilkerson is making that defense run. Houston is playing great on his own, but being on the same defense as Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe will make him seem less important. Robert Mathis has slowed down in recent games, but he's still the leader in sacks and could easily end up with 17-19 sacks. Sherman has been the best secondary player this season, to me, so I give him his notional award, but it a Front-7 league on defense.


Offensive Rookie of the Year

1.) Eddie Lacy (RB-GB)
2.) Keenan Allen (WR-SD)
3.) DeAndre Hopkins (WR-HOU)

Geno Smith will probably win the award if the Jets make the playoffs, but while I think he has a bright future, I don't this his play really warrants it. Eddie Lacy has been great in Green Bay, providing them the one thing they were missing on offense (also, with Rodgers out 3-4 games, Lacy has a chance to lock this up). Keenan Allen has quietly had a great year, showing up greatly for the Chargers as they've missed their #1-2 receivers from 2013. Hopkins has shown that he could finally be the #2 in Houston opposite Andre Johnson.


Defensive Rookie of the Year

1.) Kiko Alonso (OLB-BUF)
2.) Sheldon Richardson (DT-NYJ)
3.) Tyrann Mathieu (CB-ARZ)

Really strong crop this year, which is nice after Luke Kuechly ran away with the award, fleeing past no real competitor. Kiko Alonso is having a very good year, slotting in really nicely in that Bills defense, playing great Linebacker so far. Richardson, though, is really close. There is a case for him. Sure, the Jets have a bunch of other talented players on defense (including Wilkerson, who is a best), but Richardson has been a really tough Nose Tackle, already necessitating double blocks. Tyrann Mathieu has been actually better as a corner than Peterson was as a rookie. I don't know if he'll match the improvements Peterson has made as a sophomore player, but Tyrann Mathieu was a great 3rd round pick.


Coach of the Year

1.) Andy Reid (KC)
2.) Mike McCoy (SD)
3.) Sean Payton (NO)

Andy Reid is the obvious answer. Even if the Chiefs finish 2-5, he'll deservedly run away with the award. He's taken a team that was 2-14 last season to a 9-0 start. No matter how many backup QBs they face, that is wildly impressive. Picking McCoy over Payton may be odd, but many predicted this from Payton's return to New Orleans, and what's really made the Saints 6-2 is their defense, not the improvement from the offense. Mike McCoy inherited a mess of a situation, and despite losing key players on both sides of the ball, he's coached Philip Rivers back into a pro-bowl QB. They may not make the playoffs, but there is a bright future in San Diego, and Mike McCoy is part of that.


1st Half All-Pro Team

*-This is purely for the 1st half. Rodgers went get it, but unlike me excluding Rodgers from MVP, he was #2 in my 1st-Half All-Pro QB


QB - Peyton Manning

Just read what is above regarding Manning in the MVP area. This is pretty obvious.


WR - Calvin Johnson (DET)
WR - AJ Green (CIN)
WR - Andre Johnson (HOU)

The first two are obvious. Calvin Johnson, despite missing a game, is 3rd in the league in receiving yards (and the guys at #1-2 haven't had their bye yet). His numbers are below what they were last year, but he is still every bit as good. AJ Green is rounding into form as a dominant receiver, and he might got more opportunities if Marvin Jones continues to play well and teams can't triple team Green. Andre Johnson is basically the NFL WR equivalent of Albert Pujols, quietly putting up monster numbers year after year. He's 4th in the league in yards per game (and two of those ahead of them are either suspended for the year or broke their foot four weeks ago).


RB - Jamaal Charles (KC)
TE - Jimmy Graham (NO)

Jimmy Graham is obvious, having a year that might have contended for All-Pro even if he was a WR. He's on pace to break many of his records from 2011, and break Gronk's TD record for a TE also. Graham vs. LeSean McCoy was a close call, but I'm going with the guy who plays in an offense that is harder to get rushing lanes (just look at the y/c numbers for running backs in Michael Vick offenses), and Charles has done more in the passing game (not by too much, though). Charles has gotten some MVP love, which is absurd, but he's having another great season.


T - Duane Brown (HOU)
T - Joe Staley (SF)
G - Marshal Yanda (BAL)
G - Mike Iupati (SF)
C - Nick Mangold (NYJ)

As I have said and will always so, I have no idea how to judge O-Lineman in the NFL. These to me are all having good years. The Jets run game is back, and some of that has to do with Mangold having his best year since his dominant 2010 campaign. Iupati and Staley lead the league's best O-Line, who've opened wholes for the best running attack in the NFL. Brown has been great in Houston, and Yanda has been the only stable O-Lineman for the Ravens.


DL - JJ Watt (HOU)
DL - Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ)
DL - Robert Quinn (STL)
DL - Mario Williams (BUF)

I'm going with a 4-4-4 defense. Yes, that's wrong, but screw it. I've combined these two positions because they should be in All-Pro voting, so we don't get a situation like last year where JJ Watt was named an All-Pro at DT and DE. Watt is still the best defensive player in football, and Wilkerson has been nearly as good. Robert Quinn has been an absolutely dominant edge rusher, the best 4-3 DE in football so far, and Mario Williams has done a lot to earn the sick amount of money he's getting paid.


OLB - Robert Mathis (IND)
OLB - Justin Houston (KC)

Robert Mathis has been incredible so far this season, just abusing the lineman that try to block him. He's still on pace to break Strahan's sack record. He won't get there, but he's been the best 3-4 OLB so far this season, and basically single-handidly making the Colts an above-average pass rush team.


ILB - NaVarro Bowman (SF)
ILB - Sean Lee (DAL)

NaVarro Bowman has been great, even with Patrick Willis next to him for some of them, still as good against both the pass and rush as he's ever been. He might be given the Lance Briggs treatment in terms of the way he's eventually viewed, where Willis (to Briggs' Urlacher), the more famous player, goes into the HOF, while Bowman, about 95% as good, doesn't. Sean Lee has perfectly meshed with the Tampa-2, regaining his spot as the best coverage linebacker in the NFL (though Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis have done great work in Carolina).


CB - Richard Sherman (SEA)
CB - Alterraun Verner (TEN)

Richard Sherman is obviously having a great season, with 4 interceptions, and lockdown coverage against basically everyone he's played. I had a tough time picking a 2nd player, but Verner is a good choice. He's had a great season, picking his play up to make that whole Titans defense better. Verner a few years ago was a top notch slot corner, but now he's gone outside and become even more effective.


S - Earl Thomas (SEA)
S - Glover Quin (DET)

Earl Thomas was an easy selection, for all of the reasons that Sherman was at corner. Thomas has raised his game, making up for surprisingly middling play by Kam Chancellor. The second safety was a tough choice. Glover Quin is having a really good year in Detroit, stabilizing a secondary that had been anything but in recent seasons.

NFL 2013: Week 10 Power Rankings

Lot of Midseason Review stuff this week, so this will be (slightly) shorter than normal.


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

DOLPHINS (+3)  over  Bengals  (CORRECT  =  1-0)
Vikings (+10.5)  over  COWBOYS  (CORRECT  =  2-0)
Titans (-3)  over  RAMS  (CORRECT  =  3-0)
Chargers (-0.5)  over  REDSKINS  (WRONG  =  3-1)
PANTHERS (-7.5)  over  Falcons  (CORRECT  =  4-1)
Chiefs (-4)  over  BILLS  (CORRECT  =  5-1)
JETS (+7)  over  Saints  (CORRECT  =  6-1)
RAIDERS (-2.5)  over  Eagles  (WRONG  =  6-2)
Buccaneers (+16)  over  SEAHAWKS  (CORRECT  =  7-2)
Ravens (-2.5)  over  BROWNS  (WRONG  =  7-3)
Steelers (+7)  over  PATRIOTS  (WRONG  =  7-4)
TEXANS (+3)  over  Colts  (PUSH  =  7-4-1)
Bears (+11)  over  PACKERS  (CORRECT  =  8-4-1)

Week 9: 8-4-1

Year-to-Date: 75-57-1



32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (0-8  =  86-264)

What's to Like: Well, getting the #1 overall pick is never a bad thing for your future.

What's to Hate: Well, being arguably the worst team ever and then losing your best offensive player because he can't smoking the wacky is about the worst thing that could've happened to Jacksonville on their bye.


31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (0-8  =  124-190)

What's to Like: They played really hard in that game, and Mike Glennon might have a future in the NFL, at least more than Josh Freeman will.

What's to Hate: Well, Schiano is still going to get fired at the end of the season, and the Bucs will have to start this process over again. Good thing for them they are the most likely team to be the Chiefs of 2014.


30.) Minnesota Vikings  (1-7  =  186-252)

What's to Like: Adrian Peterson looked like Adrian Peterson for the first time since his 76-yard run to open the season.

What's to Hate: The team is too far gone to make any noise this season, and isn't bad enough to hope for a new regime change. There are problems in that organization that only getting rid of Rick Spielman can fix.


29.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (2-6  =  156-208)

What's to Like: Ben Roethlisberger is still an awfully good QB, and they have decent skill position players.

What's to Hate: Everything else. The management and coaching team has stopped being able to draft and develop to anything near the level of the 2004-2010 Steelers. There are massive systematic problems in Pittsburgh right now.


28.) Buffalo Bills  (3-6  =  189-236)

What's to Like: The offense seems to be able to move the ball with any of three different QBs, and they're still an awfully young team with defensive playmakers.

What's to Hate: That describes basically the 2006-2012 Bills also.


27.) Atlanta Falcons  (2-6  =  176-218)

What's to Like: This is still a talented team having a terrible year injury wise, something like the 2003 Steelers, who went 6-10 in between going 10-5-1 and 15-1.

What's to Hate: That Steelers team had their 6-10 season under the QB-ship of Tommy Maddox, and then they drafted Ben Roethlisberger. This team has their Ben Roethlisberger.


26.) St. Louis Rams  (3-6  =  186-226)

What's to Like: The offense may have found a RB in Zak Stacy, and they are so young and still talented. The Rams have a bright future.

What's to Hate: The only way for them to have an even brighter future is to get a reliable QB, which they may or may not have, and that decision will have to made with Bradford coming off of an ACL injury.


25.) Houston Texans  (2-6  =  146-221)

What's to Like: They Texans still employ JJ Watt, who is, once again, having the best season of any defensive player in the NFL. Anytime you have a Hall of Fame-type player, that is a good thing.

What's to Hate: Gary Kubiak is literally breaking down. I wish him the best, and it is good that he seems OK, but that was a scary, scary sight, which hopefully will remind these Texans fans that football isn't as big as it seems overall.


24.) Oakland Raiders  (3-5  =  146-199)

What's to Like: Terrelly Pryor is still a good, surprisingly competent QB, and he seems like someone who wants to get better, who wants to improve.

What's to Hate: That spare-part constructed defense that had been so impressive this season; yeah, that wasn't there last year.


23.) Washington Redskins  (3-5  =  203-253)

What's to Like: The Redskins are just 1.5 games back in the division, with them still to host Dallas later this season, and the running game is approaching the levels it was at in 2012.

What's to Hate: The defense is on pace to give up 500 points, and unless you are the 2000 Rams, you can't do anything giving up nearly that many points.


22.) New York Giants  (2-6  =  141-223)

What's to Like: The Giants are just 2.5 games out of first place, with them still to host Dallas later this season, and their defense is approaching the levels it was in 2011-12 (regular season, for 2012).

What's to Hate: Those defenses weren't good enough, and the Giants got to 9-7 because they were good on offense, which this Giants team is not.


21.) Cleveland Browns  (4-5  =  172-197)

What's to Like: They could finish 2nd in the division for the first time since their miracle 10-6 season in 2007, and the only other time was their more miracle 2002 season, which was their only playoff season as the new-Browns.

What's to Hate: This time, 2nd place in the division probably means a 7-9 record, not a playoff appearance or a 10-win season.


20.) Baltimore Ravens  (3-5  =  168-172)

What's to Like: The defense is still good, and they've replaced aging players with younger ones to little drop-off. The Ravens can still win games 23-17.

What's to Hate: Can their offense score 17? Everything wrong with the modern NFL way of making anyone who can put together 4-good games in the playoffs as elite has come back to bite the Ravens. That Flacco contract will screw them.


19.) Philadelphia Eagles  (4-5  =  225-231)

What's to Like: Nick Foles! He's been good in his limited appearances earlier, and was amazing last weekend. He doesn't qualify yet, but he's basically 1st place in every passing statistic.

What's to Hate: Foles will probably get hurt soon, and I doubt that was anything more than One Shining Moment, rather than the start of something great.


18.) Miami Dolphins  (4-4  =  174-187)

What's to Like: The Dolphins got a huge win, and find themselves tied in the loss column for the #6 seed (with both games against the current #6 seed Jets still to come). Cameron Wake is back. My, my, is he back.

What's to Hate: For the Dolphins to actually make the playoffs, their offense has to get better. There's so little explosion in that offense, despite the presence of Mike Wallace.


17.) Tennessee Titans  (4-4  =  173-167)

What's to Hate: They can't keep squeaking by teams, as sooner or later that will fail. The offense needs some explosiveness outside.

What's to Like: The 1999-era Titans are back! As Jake Locker did his best McNair impression, and Chris Johnson did a decent Eddie George impression, and the defense did a good defense impression.


16.) Dallas Cowboys  (5-4  =  257-209)

What's to Hate: The Cowboys could have thrown away another game, could have brought them right back to the dregs of the bottom of the division, have thrown away a game against a bad team at home.

What's to Like: They didn't. If they make the playoffs, it is because of that game.


15.) San Diego Chargers  (4-4  =  192-174)

What's to Hate: With two games against the Chiefs, two games against the Broncos, and a game against Cincinnati still to come, the Chargers threw away a golden opportunity with that loss. Seeing them end up with a better record than a bunch of the other 4-loss teams with easier schedules is hard to see.

What's to Like: Philip Rivers is a QB they can keep and build around. They didn't lose that game because of him. They lost because the wide receivers are injured, and the defense stinks.


14.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-4  =  160-174)

What's to Hate: The Cardinals offense hasn't reached the level it should have with a better QB, and I still believe Carson Palmer is a better QB than he's played and far better than Skelton/Kolb.

What's to Love: Watching that team play defense, especially at home, is one of my favorite random sights of the 2013 NFL Season.


13.) New York Jets  (5-4  =  169-231)

What's to Hate: The Jets haven't been able to win two games in a row all season, and Geno Smith wasn't great last weekend against New Orleans.

What's to Like: They've rediscovered their 2009 formula, with the up-and-down offense, and the very good defense with one exceptional player (Muhammad Wilkerson). Of course, before I go too far down that path, they've given up more points this season so far than all 16 games of 2009.


12.) Detroit Lions  (5-3  =  217-197)

What's to Hate: The Lions still haven't been able to put up one dominant performance all year long. The talent is there, everywhere, even more than in 2011. They have an easy schedule and a chance of the division with the Packers game in Detroit still to come, but can they take advantage?

What's to Like: The talent on this team is still ridiculous. They're a good team masquerading as an up-and-down one, but if they do make the playoffs, as long as they avoid New Orleans, they can make damage.


11.) Chicago Bears  (5-3  =  240-226)

What's to Hate: The Bears have a serious problem stopping the run. Now, injuries are the reason, as they're missing their starting NT and backup NT. They couldn't even stop the Packers run game consistently despite not having to really worry about a passing game.

What's to Like: That offense is really fun to watch. Marc Trestman has done an excellent job. Honestly, watching Josh McCown play that well was amazing. The most ridiculous part was seeing Josh McCown have a lot of time to throw. The Bears offense is good enough to keep them in this race for a while.



10.) Kansas City Chiefs  (9-0  =  215-111)

What's to Hate: They haven't really played well in a game since their win over Tennessee. They've been able to skirt by against bad teams starting 3rd string QBs, and now that ends, with five of their last seven against Manning, Rivers and Luck.

What's to Love: Just say they lose all five of those games, as long as they beat RGIII and Terrelle Pryor, they're going 11-5 and getting into the playoffs.


9.) Green Bay Packers  (5-3  =  232-185)

What's to Hate: Well, it is obvious, right. Aaron Rodgers is missing at least three games by all indication. Now, those three games come against a reasonably light schedule (Eagles, Giants, Vikings), but if three stretches to four, then Rodgers is missing the ciritical Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit. Without Rodgers, this team is going nowhere.

What's to Like: Eddie Lacy is no fluke. That guy is a really physical runner, who is patient and explosive. Just a great pick. He's so much better than Alabama teammate Trent Richardson it is hilarious.


8.) New Orleans Saints  (6-2  =  216-146)

What's to Hate: The Saints aren't exactly a good team on the road. I feel like they need the #1 seed to win the NFC, and they'll probably have to beat Seattle in Seattle to get there.

What's to Love: Jimmy Graham is still really good, and that offense continues to get pressure and cover receivers really well.


7.) Carolina Panthers  (5-3  =  204-106)

What's to Hate: The Panthers still haven't beaten anyone good, and they still have just one dependable receiver, and they're still starting Oakland punch-line Mike Mitchell at safety.

What's to Love: They've been amazing recently, and if they can get out of the 49ers-Patriots back-to-back at 6-4, the Saints will still be in striking distance in that division. Plus, I just love watching that Front-7 play defense.


6.) Indianapolis Colts  (6-2  =  214-155)

What's to Hate: The Colts are going to have a tough time consistetly scoring without Reggie Wayne. TY Hilton won't have 3-TDs every game, but Fleener and DHB will drop passes every game.

What's to Love: Honestly, there are problems with every AFC contender, and they held pace with New England for that #2 seed. Plus, the Colts are still a year ahead of schedule.


5.) New England Patriots  (7-2  =  234-175)

What's to Hate: The defense is slowly getting worse, mostly due to injuries, and that will a problem against better teams than Pittsburgh. Also, Ninkovich and Gregory both left that game with semi-serious injuries.

What's to Love: That was the first time all year we've seen something resembling the Patriots offense from 2010-2012. I don't know if it will last (the Patriots have always matched up well with the Steelers defense, even when they were good), but for one Sunday it looked awesome.


4.) Cincinnati Bengals  (6-3  =  217-166)

What's to Hate: The loss of Geno Atkins is huge. He was their most consistent pass rusher. The Bengals are really deep up front, but you don't just replace one of the best interior players in the NFL without some dropoff.

What's to Love: That division sucks, and they have a tiebreaker over the Patriots and can get one over the Colts. Assuming the Patriots don't win out, a bye is in the Bengals hands.


3.) San Francisco 49ers  ( 218-145)

What's to Hate: The passing offense still is underwhelming, and, I don't know, maybe they lost some momentum on their bye.

What's to Love: Everything else. With the Seahawks looking like dogshit recently, people are starting to think the 49ers can get that division after all. Dates with Carolina and New Orleans will tell us a better picture.


2.) Seattle Seahawks  (8-1  =  232-149)

What's to Hate: They haven't played a great game in a while, and probably should have lost each of the last two games. The offense just doesn't look right, and while the Tackles are coming back, Sidney Rice isn't.

What's to Love: They're still winning. All the Seahawks need to do is get that #1 seed, and I find it hard for them not to make the Super Bowl. Winning ugly games is what makes that happen.


1.) Denver Broncos  (7-1  =  343-218)

What's to Hate: The defense has played exactly one good game, and they've had to come back from down at least 14 three times this season (and only twice did it successfully).

What's to Love: They can rest up at the bye, and while they're comically still 2nd in their division, no team has more comfortable wins than them. By resume, they are the best team in the NFL.


Playoff Projections

AFC
1.) Denver Broncos  =  14-2
2.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  12-4
3.) New England Patriots  =  12-4
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  12-4
5.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  13-3
6.) New York Jets  =  10-6


NFC

1.) Seattle Seahawks  =  13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints  =  12-4
3.) Detroit Lions  =  11-5
4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  9-7
5.) San Francisco 49ers  =  12-4
6.) Carolina Panthers  =  11-5


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: New England (7-2), New York Jets (5-4), Kansas City (9-0), Cleveland (4-5)

14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8)  @  Tennessee Titans (4-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Oakland Raiders (3-5)  @  New York Giants (2-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Buffalo Bills (3-6)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "That 2-Week Stretch of Terrible Games isn't Totally Gone" Sunday, as we get three pretty awful early CBS games. None of these games seems the least bit appealing. Bills @ Steelers has some potential, but it could be a pretty lifeless crowd in Pittsburgh, and it could get ugly if the Steelers play badly again.


11.) St. Louis Rams (3-6)  @  Indianapolis Colts (6-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Seattle Seahawks (8-1)  @  Atlanta Falcons (2-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Miami Dolphins (4-4)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "The Good Old 'One Good Team, One Bad Team'" Sunday, as we get three games where good-to-great teams (Dolphins < Colts < Seahawks) play bad teams. The Dolphins @ Buccaneers game is another treasure for ESPN. I find it hard Tirico won't explode at some point having to sit through that game just a month after dealing with Vikings @ Giants. Seattle and Atlanta is the saddest version of a great playoff game rematch. The Rams match up decently well with the Colts offense, but the Colts should pound away at that game.


8.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (3-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Put the Nail in the Coffin" Sunday, as the Bengals can essentially lock up their division (to some degree) and knock out the Ravens, all in one week, all in Baltimore. The Ravens rarely lose at home, but they lost their last home game. The crowd in Baltimore should be fired up. If the Bengals are a true Super Bowl contender, they take care of business right here.


7.) Washington Redskins (3-5)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-7)  (TNF - NFLN)
6.) Houston Texans (2-6)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-4)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Sometimes, I just find games Interesting" Sunday (and Thursday), as the NFLN gets a game that looked a lot worse a week ago (before a Redskins win and the Vikings nearly beating Dallas). The Texans take their new-found offense to a place where the Cardinals defense plays really well. There could be some big plays and highlights from Keenum throwing up lobs to Johnson and Hopkins, covered by Peterson and Mathieu.


5.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)  @  Green Bay Packers (5-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

I cal it "Who knows, who knows" Sunday, as I can imagine anything happening in this game. The Eagles could score 42, they could score 10, the Packers could score 35, they could score 14. Who knows what will happen? It should be interesting to watch, though.


4.) Denver Broncos (7-1)  @  San Diego Chargers (4-4)  (4:25 - CBS)
2.) Dallas Cowboys (5-4)  @  New Orleans Saints (6-2)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "This is the Modern NFL" Sunday, as both these games seem like safe bets to hit the over. The Cowboys and Saints played an extremely entertaining game last year in Dallas, and the previous two meetings were also notable. One was on a Thanksgiving Night in 2010, with Romo injured and Orton playing well. The other was the Cowboys ending the 13-0 Saints run at perfection in 2009 in New Orleans. The Broncos return to the site where the Manning era started in earnest, when they beat the Chargers 35-24 after being down 24-0 at halftime. Both games should be hell of a lot of fun.


2.) Detroit Lions (5-3)  @  Chicago Bears (5-3)  (1:00 - FOX)
1.) Carolina Panthers (5-3)  @  San Francisco 49ers (6-2)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "NFC, take Center Stage" Sunday, as both of my top-2 games (and, now that I look up, all of my Top-3) are NFC ones. With Cutler slated to return, and Rodgers not in Green Bay for hte time-being, this game is arguably for 1st Place in the division for the year. This could be the biggest game of the season in hte NFC North (other than the Thanksgiving Game, where the Lions could kill the Packers chances if things go badly with Seneca Wallace). Then we get what should just be an awesome, defensive game between two similar teams. Both have sturdy defenses built off of a dominant Front-7. Both have mobile QBs without a ton of dependable weapons. Should be a great, great game.

NFL 2013: Week 9 Picks

Year-to-Date: 67-53

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)  @  Miami Dolphins (3-4)  (CIN -3)

The Bengals are entering having won their last four games. The Dolphins are entering having lost their last four games. Of course, it only seems logical that I like the Dolphins to cover and win. The Dolphins play well at night home games, the only games where they really get any sort of Home Field advantage. The Bengals are getting a little overhyped right now, and historically, teams coming off giant wins like the Bengals 49-9 win over the Jets fail to cover the next week. Since the line is this low, not covering essentially means losing.

Bengals 17  Dolphins 24  (MIA +3)

Minnesota Vikings (1-6)  @  Dallas Cowboys (4-4)  (DAL -10.5)

This is a classic case where I think the line is too high, but the favorite plays like the favorite should and they blow they lid off the underdog. I can totally see the Cowboys destroying Minnesota's awful defense, with Dez Bryant having a 'fuck you' game and getting like 175 yards and two TDs. Of course, I could see Adrian Peterson having the same stat line, and Ponder wasn't awful last week. In the end, I'll go with my head and go against 10 point favorites (especially ones as mediocre as the Cowboys), but my gut is really disagreeing with this.

Vikings 20  Cowboys 28  (MIN +10.5)

Tennessee Titans (3-4)  @  St. Louis Rams (3-5)  (TEN -3)

Jeff Fisher's first game against the Rams isn't getting any attention, nor should it. Instead of the Rams being the plucky underdog, it is the Titans, who were emulating everything great about vintage-era Fisher teams in their 3-1 start. Jake Locker should be better off the bye than he was two weeks ago. I'm surprised the Titans are favored by three, though, in St. Louis. I realize the Titans have a better resume, but the Rams showed a lot on Monday Night. I had a theory that they left it all out on the field on MNF, and might be emotionally spent this week, against a non-conference opponent. With the low line, there's good value in picking Tennessee, and I'll do it. The Titans beat Jeff Fisher. 

Titans 20  Rams 13  (TEN -3)

San Diego Chargers (4-3)  @  Washington Redskins (2-5)  (SD -0.5)

I'm stunned the Chargers aren't bigger favorites in this game. They've shown twice this year that they can travel East and play well (win in Philadelphia, should-have-been-win in Tennessee). The Redskins defense showed that it still isn't any good last week, and their offense had no control against Denver. They might get some lift by playing at home, but the Chargers are just a better team, off of their bye. They can't afford to lose any games with all four of their Denver/KC games coming up (they host Denver next week). I don't think they will.

Chargers 34  Redskins 24  (SD -0.5)

Atlanta Falcons (2-5)  @  Carolina Panthers (4-3)  (CAR -7.5)

High line, as Vegas is starting to really respect the Panthers, who've blown out the four teams they played that were clearly worse than them (the Bills aren't clearly worse). At home, they've been great (2 wins and 1 close loss to Seattle). The Falcons, even if Roddy White plays, are clearly worse than the Panthers are right now. I thought the Panthers were better than a healthy Atlanta team. The Panthers are just playing really well right now (I already envision picking them to beat New England two Monday's from now). They can abuse that makeshift O-Line of Atlanta, shutting down any semblance of a run game, and tee off on Ryan just like Arizona did. It is amazing the Falcons, who started 10-0 last season, are in this bad shape but life changes quickly in the NFL.

Falcons 17  Panthers 30  (CAR -7.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)  @  Buffalo Bills (3-5)  (KC -4)

If Thad Lewis was definitely starting, I would pick Buffalo to win. They have the type of offense that could give Kansas City trouble, they have a good D-Line that can get to Alex Smith, and an array of coverage linebackers that can stop the Chiefs' screen game. Alas, Thad Lewis is doubtful, and I don't trust Jeff Tuel at all. It is amazing the Chiefs get to play a 3rd straight 3rd-string QB (Keenum, Campbell). Sometimes the breaks just happen all year long. They're in for a rude awakening, with five of the last seven games featuring Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck, the three best QBs in the AFC this season.

If Thad Lewis Somehow Starts: Chiefs 17  Bills 20  (BUF +4)

If Jeff Tuel starts: Chiefs 23  Bills 13  (KC -4)

New Orleans Saints (6-1)  @  New York Jets (4-4)  (NO -7)

I love this game for the Jets. First, the reverse of the Bengals high-win theory applies here, as teams that lose games by a ton generally cover the next week. The Jets have played well at home, and the Saints are still nowhere near as dynamic offensively outside of the Dome. The Jets can get to Brees (many teams have, actually) with their line having good matchups against an overrated O-Line for New Orleans. Rex will know Rob's defense, and I can see the Saints defense struggling against the Jets offense. The problem is against a defense like Rob Ryan's, Geno could have a 3-4 turnover game, but I can't see him having another one. 

Saints 23  Jets 27  (NYJ +7)

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-4)  (OAK -2.5)

The Raiders are favored for the 2nd time this year, and they covered the first time. Of course, that was against the Jaguars. It is hard to believe the Raiders have a greater than 50% chance of being 4-4 at the halfway point. No one would have expected that. No one could have imagined their band-of-castoffs defense playing this well. That defense gets to play against an offense similar to their own, against a potentially rusty Nick Foles. The less-than-a-field goal line gives great value in picking the Raiders. I'm ready for my mind to be blown, for the AFC West to have all four teams above .500 halfway through.

Eagles 20  Raiders 26  (OAK -2.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)  @  Seattle Seahawks (7-1)  (SEA -16)

This is a high line. The Seahawks have had a few, covering easily against Jacksonville and not coming close to covering against the Rams. There are some easy logic in picking against Seattle. First, their offense is in disarray, and not only is Percy Harvin not back yet, but Sidney Rice is gone, and their two tackles are still not back. The Bucs still have a really talented defense, and Revis looked like Revis last TNF. Secondly, teams cover at a ridiculous percentage the week after they play on TNF. The Buccaneers mutiny of a season likely reached its nadir last week as well. This is the time to bet on Tampa Bay to cover. As a rule, I would always pick an underdog by more than 15, but those are reasons why that pick is more sensible than just blindly following a trend. Of course, this could easily be wrong when it is 34-3 in the 3rd quarter.

Buccaneers 13  Seahawks 27  (TB +16)

Baltimore Ravens (3-4)  @  Cleveland Browns (3-5)  (BAL -2.5)

Jason Campbell's starting again, which could be a good thing. He played rather well last weekend, against the league's best defense. The Ravens defense isn't as good, but it isn't that far away. They also play more conservative coverage defensively, which could lead to scores of Jason Campbell checkdowns. The Ravens offense, I would hope, would be a little better off of their bye. Their run game has to get going sooner or later. The line is low (as are many this weekend), and I just can't pick the Ravens to go two games under .500. They also have dominated the Browns in recent years (in win-loss more than actual games), and I think that continues.

Ravens 23  Browns 13  (BAL -2.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5)  @  New England Patriots (6-2)  (NE -7)

I feel strongly about this game. I would feel more strongly had Shaun Shuisam not (mis)kicked away last weeks game in Oakland, but I think the talent level here is closer than people would think. First, despite records, Ben Roethlisberger's having a better season than Tom Brady. The Patriots run game is better. The defense for Ne England is better, but with current injuries they're probably about equal. Of course, those judgements are biased, as I'm the same person who picked the Steelers to go 12-4 in the preseason. Looking past that, I think the Steelers keep this close. I wish the line was a little higher, but even Vegas has seemingly softened on New England. I wouldn't be shocked if the Steelers win, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots cover in a win, but I doubt it is a blowout and I think the most likely outcome is another sluggish, semi-ugly Patriots win.

Steelers 21  Patriots 24  (PIT +7)

Indianapolis Colts (5-2)  @  Houston Texans (2-5)  (IND -3)

This game terrifies me as a Colts fan. Actually, the only thing that terrifies me is the loss of Reggie Wayne. My worst fear is Andrew Luck struggling early without Wayne and Pep Hamilton becoming more insular and determined in pushing his run-first offense. The Texans still have a good defense, and JJ Watt could, and more likely will, be as dominant as he ever and always is. The Colts defense matches up reasonably well with the Texans offense, but the Colts struggle against the run, the one thing that could keep an underdog Houston in the game. Also, just like in the San Diego game three weeks ago, the Colts don't have much to play for (even with a loss, they'll be at least 1.5 games up in the division), while the Texans are playing for their season. I hate doing this, but I think it is the right pick.

Colts 20  Texans 24  (HOU +3)

Chicago Bears (4-3)  @  Green Bay Packers (5-2)  (GB -11)

So many conflicting ideas in picking this game. The Bears are much better prepared to absorb the loss of Cutler this year than they were two years ago when it was Caleb Hanie replaced him (not only is McCown better than Hanie, but the outside players in Chicago are far better than two years ago), and I still don't trust the Packers defense. There's also the double digit line. The Packers, though, have a long history of just dominating divisional rivals when they're down (35-7 over a Hanie-led Bears team in 2011, last week, Detroit in 2008-09). The Bears defense just isn't very good right now, and the Packers offense is still humming with a running game picking up the missing offense of Cobb and Finley. In the end, I'll go with the double digit line, as it works over the long haul. Not confident about either the Buccaneers or Bears covering the double digits, but hopefully at least one does.

Bears 24  Packers 34  (CHI +11)

Enjoy the games!!

/Sure, it is a bad slate of games, but better days are ahead)