I've picked playoff games in the 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons. I've only gone 4-0 once, the divisional round in 2009. That was probably as tough as this past week, but I won my great upset pick, putting up the Jets to beat the 13-3 Chargers as 9.5-point underdogs.
Wild Card Picks:
Cardinals 10 @ Panthers 23 (CAR -6) (CORRECT)
Ravens 23 @ Steelers 20 (BAL +3) (CORRECT)
Bengals 16 @ Colts 27 (IND -3.5) (CORRECT)
Lions 20 @ Cowboys 24 (DET +7.5) (CORRECT)
Week: 4-0
Not only did I get all the picks right, I got the exact score right with Lions @ Cowboys. I got the score for the Arizona @ Carolina game in the Cincy @ Indy game, and nearly did the reverse (10-26 instead of 10-23 what I picked).
Player of the Week - Luke Kuechly (MLB - CAR)
This wasn't the best set of Wild Card Games, but there were some standout performances, none better than Luke Kuechly's to me. He was a deserving Defensive Player of the Year last year, and while he wasn't quite as good, he's been as good the last few games. I realize the Cardinals offense stinks, but he still played out of his mind, ruining screens and deep passes, brilliantly reading Lindley on that huge interception to hold the 27-14 lead, and generally being a monster. If the Panthers have any chance, he will have to do the same in Seattle, if not more.
Runner-Up: Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
Luck was my choice last year, and by all accounts he was better this year. Now, the Bengals lack of pass rush and injuries did not provide much resistance, but Andrew Luck somehow managed to be better than his stats of 31-44 for 376 yards. He had multiple drops on deep throws, and a TD taken away by a holding penalty. Those things do happen, I guess. Luck continues to get better, and showed amazing restraint by checking down to Boom Herron far more than even the Luck from three weeks ago would have.
Goat of the Week - Drew Butler (P - ARZ)
The two teams that lost badly were just not as good, and both the Steelers and Lions had no obvious worst player, so I'm going to give it to the player that was probably obejctively the worst player last week. When you have a performance like Drew Butler did, it goes beyond reason. He was bad during the season, but didn't approach that. Butler was lucky to get 35 yards on a punt, hitting three less than 30. Only one of those was altered by an unlucky negative bounce, too. The Panthers were better, but getting to start on the 40 each drive really helped. Butler didn't lose that game, but considering what field position would have done, he definitely helped.
Runner-Up: Pete Morelli's Crew
Doing a quick look down, this is the only award I am giving to anyone in this game, which is sad given it was by far the best game from the weekend, and due to the picked-up flag it becomes more memorable than it should be. Pete Morelli probably cost himself a shot at the Super Bowl (which many had intimated he was in line for) by being way too hasty to announce the penalty. His own crew botched the call, missing two obvious penalties and debating the third obvious one, adn then not flagging Dez Bryant. The Cowboys may win anyway, but that was a trainwreck.
Surprise of the Week - The Ravens Secondary
It was odd that the loss of Rashaan Melvin meant anything, but when he got banged up, Ravens' backers got nervous. That alone indicates how banged up, nameless, and pedestrian the Ravens secondary was this year. That said, they played reasonably well, and for them, reasonably well is about their limit. None were great, but they were able to hang with one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Antonio Brown had a few big plays, but was held in relative check. Markus Wheaton was invisible, and Martavis Bryant had limited impact. The best player to me was Darian Stewart, who played quite nicely as the deep safety. I was expecting the Ravens front to dominate, but for the back end to relatively hold up was a great bonus.
Runner-Up: The Panthers Other Receivers
We all know about Kelvin Benjamin, the talented youngster who makes some highlight catches and makes some awful drops, but on the whole is just a nice player. what we didn't know about was the others. Philly Brown had a really nice game before leaving for injury. Jerrico Cotchery was not targeted much, but did well when he was. Finally, Fozzy Whittaker had the play of the game. Without natural talent aside from Benjamin and Olsen, the Panthers have to turn to these types of players on offense to really move the ball, and it worked once again.
Disappointment of the Week - The Steelers Creativity
I'm not a huge Todd Haley fan and I think he neutered Roethlisberger's best qualities in 2012 and 2013. I can't say his offense didn't work this year, it was amazing it times. However, without Leveon Bell, Haley gave up on the run and decided to rotate three running backs that he was never planning on using anyway. The Steelers tried to use screens, but they could have used Brown as a runner, or tried more intermediate throws. The Steelers just didn't have much creativity to their offense after having a year where that really didn't happen.
Runner-Up: Us for expecting anything different from Arizona and Cincinnati
It's confusing, but I was disappointed at myself at being disappointed at Arizona and Cincinnati. Let's pity the Cardinals, a team that manufactured a 9-1 start behind two competent QBs (and one good QB in Palmer) and a defense that made plays. They were a deep bomb offense that played balls to the wall, and won some close games. That team is gone and let's give them a moment of silence. For the Bengals, let's not get upset and ask questions on why this team can't win a playoff game. This wasn't losing to TJ Yates like they did in 2011, or losing to the 9-7 Chargers last year after going 8-0 at home, and losing 10-27. This Bengals team was flawed, injured and had a terrible matchup. It's sad, but not angry, and not worth thinking too much about.
Team Performance of the Week - The Panthers Defense
Once again, it is easy to dismiss what Carolina did because it was Arizona, and it was Ryan Lindley, but they held a team in the playoffs to under 100 yards. They gave up 50 yards net passing for the entire game. Their pass rush dominated, their linebackers dominated. Their secondary played well again. They never gave the Cardinals a real chance, despite Arizona lucking into 14 points. The Panthers defense resembled the unit that was so dominant in 2013, a team that was so good in the front seven there was literally no room to throw. Awesome job by one of my favorite pet units.
Runner-Up: The Ravens Offense
The Baltimore Ravens were one of the only teams to rank in the Top-8 in Points for and against. They are a good offense. In a tough environment, with their two normal starting OTs down, the Ravens were great. From that first long TD drive built on the run, to Flacco seamlessly playing the Kubiak offense, to Steve Smith continuing to be the ballsiest, toughest dude in the NFL, the Ravens played an A game on the road in a Wild Card game. Considering the Steelers were probably the best home team, the performance of the Ravens was just great.
Team Laydown of the Week - The Bengals Pass Defense
The Bengals have a bad rush defense. They had a bad offense due to personnel injuries. Yet, through that, they had a good, deep secondary. They could cover. They were still a Top-10 pass defense. That pass defense was just bad. Now, there were injuries to Rey Maualuga (their top cover linebacker), and Dre Kirkpatrick, but they even let Hakeem Nicks beat them. If there is one area of the Bengals to really criticize, it isn't Marvin or Andy Dalton, it is that pass defense.
Runner-Up: The Lions 2nd Half
I wanted to touch on that game one more time, so I'm putting the whole Lions here. I'm still not totally sure how the Lions went from 17-7 up, with just one bad play, to losing. I actually put it up mostly to coaching conservatism that took over that team in the 2nd half. They ran the ball to no real success. They didn't throw deep at all. They punted on 4th and 1 when another first down takes two minutes off and likely puts them in field goal range, and, maybe most crucially, they stopped blitzing on defense. Their blitz packages were working brilliantly in the 1st half and it mostly disappeared, and now the Lions have.
Storyline that will be Beat into the Ground - It's the Ice Bowl!, and did you know Peyton played for the Colts?
This may be the most easily hype-able Divisional Round ever, especially on Sunday. Packers @ Cowboys is probably one of the most hype-able Divisional Round games since Romo and the Cowboys last played in this round, travelling to Minnesota to play Brett Favre. Then again, the Colts and Broncos is about as easy as it gets as well. Manning against the Colts is one of the easiest sells ever. Why I think this is overrated is that I don't think these are two games close on paper. The Cowboys don't match up well with Green Bay, given their defensive deficiencies against a higher-powered offense. Also, unless Manning is truly hurt, or Andrew Luck decides to play like Aaron Rodgers circa 2011, Indy really doesn't match up well.
Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground - This Should be a Fun Two Days, not just One
That said, those are nice games and good storylines, but so are the two games on Saturday, and those are nice as well. Ravens @ Patriots is an easy sell, given the recent history between those two teams. Some of the punch is gone with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis gone, but there are some good additions, like Steve Smith. The Ravens do match up reasonably well, just because the they are good at everything. Along with their historical edges, the Ravens are just a good team. In the night, Carolina is not a good team, but has played like one over the last few weeks. The last time they've played the Seahawks, they've lost 12-16, 7-12 and 9-13. Yes, they lost all three and yes, those were all in Carolina, but I think the Panthers can keep this close.
More to Come This Week.
Wild Card Picks:
Cardinals 10 @ Panthers 23 (CAR -6) (CORRECT)
Ravens 23 @ Steelers 20 (BAL +3) (CORRECT)
Bengals 16 @ Colts 27 (IND -3.5) (CORRECT)
Lions 20 @ Cowboys 24 (DET +7.5) (CORRECT)
Week: 4-0
Not only did I get all the picks right, I got the exact score right with Lions @ Cowboys. I got the score for the Arizona @ Carolina game in the Cincy @ Indy game, and nearly did the reverse (10-26 instead of 10-23 what I picked).
Player of the Week - Luke Kuechly (MLB - CAR)
This wasn't the best set of Wild Card Games, but there were some standout performances, none better than Luke Kuechly's to me. He was a deserving Defensive Player of the Year last year, and while he wasn't quite as good, he's been as good the last few games. I realize the Cardinals offense stinks, but he still played out of his mind, ruining screens and deep passes, brilliantly reading Lindley on that huge interception to hold the 27-14 lead, and generally being a monster. If the Panthers have any chance, he will have to do the same in Seattle, if not more.
Runner-Up: Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
Luck was my choice last year, and by all accounts he was better this year. Now, the Bengals lack of pass rush and injuries did not provide much resistance, but Andrew Luck somehow managed to be better than his stats of 31-44 for 376 yards. He had multiple drops on deep throws, and a TD taken away by a holding penalty. Those things do happen, I guess. Luck continues to get better, and showed amazing restraint by checking down to Boom Herron far more than even the Luck from three weeks ago would have.
Goat of the Week - Drew Butler (P - ARZ)
The two teams that lost badly were just not as good, and both the Steelers and Lions had no obvious worst player, so I'm going to give it to the player that was probably obejctively the worst player last week. When you have a performance like Drew Butler did, it goes beyond reason. He was bad during the season, but didn't approach that. Butler was lucky to get 35 yards on a punt, hitting three less than 30. Only one of those was altered by an unlucky negative bounce, too. The Panthers were better, but getting to start on the 40 each drive really helped. Butler didn't lose that game, but considering what field position would have done, he definitely helped.
Runner-Up: Pete Morelli's Crew
Doing a quick look down, this is the only award I am giving to anyone in this game, which is sad given it was by far the best game from the weekend, and due to the picked-up flag it becomes more memorable than it should be. Pete Morelli probably cost himself a shot at the Super Bowl (which many had intimated he was in line for) by being way too hasty to announce the penalty. His own crew botched the call, missing two obvious penalties and debating the third obvious one, adn then not flagging Dez Bryant. The Cowboys may win anyway, but that was a trainwreck.
Surprise of the Week - The Ravens Secondary
It was odd that the loss of Rashaan Melvin meant anything, but when he got banged up, Ravens' backers got nervous. That alone indicates how banged up, nameless, and pedestrian the Ravens secondary was this year. That said, they played reasonably well, and for them, reasonably well is about their limit. None were great, but they were able to hang with one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Antonio Brown had a few big plays, but was held in relative check. Markus Wheaton was invisible, and Martavis Bryant had limited impact. The best player to me was Darian Stewart, who played quite nicely as the deep safety. I was expecting the Ravens front to dominate, but for the back end to relatively hold up was a great bonus.
Runner-Up: The Panthers Other Receivers
We all know about Kelvin Benjamin, the talented youngster who makes some highlight catches and makes some awful drops, but on the whole is just a nice player. what we didn't know about was the others. Philly Brown had a really nice game before leaving for injury. Jerrico Cotchery was not targeted much, but did well when he was. Finally, Fozzy Whittaker had the play of the game. Without natural talent aside from Benjamin and Olsen, the Panthers have to turn to these types of players on offense to really move the ball, and it worked once again.
Disappointment of the Week - The Steelers Creativity
I'm not a huge Todd Haley fan and I think he neutered Roethlisberger's best qualities in 2012 and 2013. I can't say his offense didn't work this year, it was amazing it times. However, without Leveon Bell, Haley gave up on the run and decided to rotate three running backs that he was never planning on using anyway. The Steelers tried to use screens, but they could have used Brown as a runner, or tried more intermediate throws. The Steelers just didn't have much creativity to their offense after having a year where that really didn't happen.
Runner-Up: Us for expecting anything different from Arizona and Cincinnati
It's confusing, but I was disappointed at myself at being disappointed at Arizona and Cincinnati. Let's pity the Cardinals, a team that manufactured a 9-1 start behind two competent QBs (and one good QB in Palmer) and a defense that made plays. They were a deep bomb offense that played balls to the wall, and won some close games. That team is gone and let's give them a moment of silence. For the Bengals, let's not get upset and ask questions on why this team can't win a playoff game. This wasn't losing to TJ Yates like they did in 2011, or losing to the 9-7 Chargers last year after going 8-0 at home, and losing 10-27. This Bengals team was flawed, injured and had a terrible matchup. It's sad, but not angry, and not worth thinking too much about.
Team Performance of the Week - The Panthers Defense
Once again, it is easy to dismiss what Carolina did because it was Arizona, and it was Ryan Lindley, but they held a team in the playoffs to under 100 yards. They gave up 50 yards net passing for the entire game. Their pass rush dominated, their linebackers dominated. Their secondary played well again. They never gave the Cardinals a real chance, despite Arizona lucking into 14 points. The Panthers defense resembled the unit that was so dominant in 2013, a team that was so good in the front seven there was literally no room to throw. Awesome job by one of my favorite pet units.
Runner-Up: The Ravens Offense
The Baltimore Ravens were one of the only teams to rank in the Top-8 in Points for and against. They are a good offense. In a tough environment, with their two normal starting OTs down, the Ravens were great. From that first long TD drive built on the run, to Flacco seamlessly playing the Kubiak offense, to Steve Smith continuing to be the ballsiest, toughest dude in the NFL, the Ravens played an A game on the road in a Wild Card game. Considering the Steelers were probably the best home team, the performance of the Ravens was just great.
Team Laydown of the Week - The Bengals Pass Defense
The Bengals have a bad rush defense. They had a bad offense due to personnel injuries. Yet, through that, they had a good, deep secondary. They could cover. They were still a Top-10 pass defense. That pass defense was just bad. Now, there were injuries to Rey Maualuga (their top cover linebacker), and Dre Kirkpatrick, but they even let Hakeem Nicks beat them. If there is one area of the Bengals to really criticize, it isn't Marvin or Andy Dalton, it is that pass defense.
Runner-Up: The Lions 2nd Half
I wanted to touch on that game one more time, so I'm putting the whole Lions here. I'm still not totally sure how the Lions went from 17-7 up, with just one bad play, to losing. I actually put it up mostly to coaching conservatism that took over that team in the 2nd half. They ran the ball to no real success. They didn't throw deep at all. They punted on 4th and 1 when another first down takes two minutes off and likely puts them in field goal range, and, maybe most crucially, they stopped blitzing on defense. Their blitz packages were working brilliantly in the 1st half and it mostly disappeared, and now the Lions have.
Storyline that will be Beat into the Ground - It's the Ice Bowl!, and did you know Peyton played for the Colts?
This may be the most easily hype-able Divisional Round ever, especially on Sunday. Packers @ Cowboys is probably one of the most hype-able Divisional Round games since Romo and the Cowboys last played in this round, travelling to Minnesota to play Brett Favre. Then again, the Colts and Broncos is about as easy as it gets as well. Manning against the Colts is one of the easiest sells ever. Why I think this is overrated is that I don't think these are two games close on paper. The Cowboys don't match up well with Green Bay, given their defensive deficiencies against a higher-powered offense. Also, unless Manning is truly hurt, or Andrew Luck decides to play like Aaron Rodgers circa 2011, Indy really doesn't match up well.
Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground - This Should be a Fun Two Days, not just One
That said, those are nice games and good storylines, but so are the two games on Saturday, and those are nice as well. Ravens @ Patriots is an easy sell, given the recent history between those two teams. Some of the punch is gone with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis gone, but there are some good additions, like Steve Smith. The Ravens do match up reasonably well, just because the they are good at everything. Along with their historical edges, the Ravens are just a good team. In the night, Carolina is not a good team, but has played like one over the last few weeks. The last time they've played the Seahawks, they've lost 12-16, 7-12 and 9-13. Yes, they lost all three and yes, those were all in Carolina, but I think the Panthers can keep this close.
More to Come This Week.
