The best weekend of the year, guys. It is here, Divisional Weekend. Four good games, three networks, 5 Super Bowl winning QBs, and the guy who will win at least one. They're all here on Saturday and Sunday Night!!
(A6) Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ (A1) New England Patriots (12-4)
Sat. 4:35 - NBC | Patriots -7
State of the Teams: The Ravens have had some good success against the Patriots in recent years, don't you know? They have done some good work in this matchup, winning two of the three playoff games and close in every regular season game, apart form last year's 41-7 disaster. The Ravens also enter healthier than they've been in a while. They should get Eugene Monroe back, which should shore up their one large weakness on offense (LT). Their secondary is still injury riddled, but those riddles happened a while ago now, and they've settled on Rashaan Melvin on one side and Lardarius Webb, who's looking better each week, on the other. They've found a formula that somewhat works behind that great front. The Patriots have absolutely no injury concerns at all, though. Barely anyone's even 'questionable', and they usually put up half their lineup on the injury report. Edelman returns after missing his last two games with a concussion (and then rest). The defense is fully healthy. We are all healthy, living in Bill Belichick's world. Quietly, their offense struggled at times down the stretch, having 6 bad halves of their last 7 that they tried. The one expection was a scary 15-minute stretch against Miami to turn a 14-13 halftime score into a 41-13 laugher, but they struggled against San Diego, the Jets and the one half that the 1st-team was in there against Buffalo. They're not exactly entering the playoffs stronger than the team up in Denver everyone is picking apart.
The Matchup: We have evidence the Ravens match up well against the Patriots, or at least did from 2009-2012. They have a d-line that has won individual matchups against all members of the Patriots o-line, and a linebacker/safety grouping that can flood the middle and do a great job of anticipating the Patriots bread-and-butter routes. They also have an offense that can, when they play well, run and pass with equal efficiency and attack the Patriots deep. The difference this time is the Patriots of 2014 are not the Patriots of 2009-2012. They have a defense that matches up well with the Ravens. I don't think the Patriots are an inherently better team than the 2011-12 teams (DVOA would say they are not), but they are a different team. Their offense still does not mesh well with the Ravens. The Patriots can't really pass deep, and the Ravens are the #3 by DVOA defense on passes shorter than 15 yards (basically 90% of the Patriots passing offense), and the Patriots interior line struggles, and the Ravens can throw 8 different guys that are all good to very good (including Ngata, Suggs, who are noted Patriots beaters). The edges for the Patriots are on the other side. The Patriots struggle against other WRs and TEs. While Owen Daniels has played well in that scheme, he's not going to win many individual matchups, and the Ravens have no 3rd option. Torrey Smith and Steve Smith are not going to be nearly as good against that corner duo. I would like this matchup so much so even one year ago, but bringing in Browner and Revis can win them this game.
The Pick: I would love to pick the Ravens here. I'm not for a few reasons. First, they're a really public underdog, and the Patriots can get up for these types of games. The Ravens are seemingly being tabbed to win this game far more than they were in teh 2012 AFC Championship Game, and the Patriots already showed them up once last year in the 41-7 win (honestly, it was 27-7 before two NE defensive TDs against Tyrod Taylor at QB). The Patriots are better, healthier and have matchup edges. Sadly, I think they'll go to yet another AFC Championship Game.
Ravens 16 Patriots 24 (NE -7)
(N4) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) @ (N1) Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Sat. 8:15 - FOX | Seahawks -10.5
State of the Teams: The big injury actually happened in the week between games. It was the practice foot injury to Star Loutulelei, the massive, active and vitally important DT for the Panthers. His up and down play really mirrored the Panthers defense. He's not the best (or 2nd, or 3rd) best player on that defense, but against a historically good running team like Seattle, he may be the most important. He was really coming on lately, including a giant game against Atlanta in the division clincher, and it may be easy to state that any hopes the Panthers had just went out the window. They may actually have Philly Brown, and the Cam injury watch quieted as the week went on, but this team will miss Loutulelei dearly. The Seahwks are essentially really health and well set for this game. They enter the playoffs #1 in DVOA for the 3rd straight season, and even #1 in wDVOA (which counts more recent games more) for the 3rd year in a row. They are really good, really hungry, and gave up just 39 points in the last six games. Yes, those are against some pretty bad teams (49ersx2, Cardsx2, Rams, Eagles w/ Sanchez), but 39 points is kind of scary.
The Matchup: The last three times these teams played, the Seahawks won all three, but they won 16-12, 12-7 and 13-9 in the past three years. They trailed all three of those games in the 2nd half, and needed either a DeAngelo Williams fumble in the red zone (2013) and a Russell Wilson scramble-led drive (2014) to win. There are two caveats for all those games. First is they were all in Carolina, which is a large difference. The second, though, is more important: the Seahawks won all three! The Panthers played them tough each time in their own building, but they lost all of them. Now, the 2014 game was definitely a draw, but they were outplayed for a while in the 2013 game. The other issue is the Seahawks are just a better version of the Ravens. Their pass rush is about as good, especially without Loutulelei, and their LBs are about as good, but their secondary is far better. The Seahawks also have a good rushing QB, but they have a far better rushing QB right now (some of that is injuries), and they have more weapons and an overall better offense. The Panthers don't have a clear matchup other than I don't expect the Seahawks to run away mainly because I don't think they can score enough. The Seahawks are better everywhere, but there is something to those close games. It really means we have to quantify how much those games were close because they were in Carolina, or how much the loss of Loutulelei will impact the Seahawks easiest path to win (running).
The Pick: The game that screams out as similar to me is the last game the Seahawks just played, their Week 17 win against the Rams. That Rams team controlled the line of scrimmage (possible that Carolina does that), they had a 6-0 lead at the half, but their overall inability to move the ball and turnovers ruined the game for them. The Seahawks won comfortably, but it wasn't a blowout. I can see the same happening here, but I think the Panthers the way they are currently playing, are better than that Rams team, better enough to cover one of the higher lines we've seen in the playoffs in a while.
The Matchup: The last three times these teams played, the Seahawks won all three, but they won 16-12, 12-7 and 13-9 in the past three years. They trailed all three of those games in the 2nd half, and needed either a DeAngelo Williams fumble in the red zone (2013) and a Russell Wilson scramble-led drive (2014) to win. There are two caveats for all those games. First is they were all in Carolina, which is a large difference. The second, though, is more important: the Seahawks won all three! The Panthers played them tough each time in their own building, but they lost all of them. Now, the 2014 game was definitely a draw, but they were outplayed for a while in the 2013 game. The other issue is the Seahawks are just a better version of the Ravens. Their pass rush is about as good, especially without Loutulelei, and their LBs are about as good, but their secondary is far better. The Seahawks also have a good rushing QB, but they have a far better rushing QB right now (some of that is injuries), and they have more weapons and an overall better offense. The Panthers don't have a clear matchup other than I don't expect the Seahawks to run away mainly because I don't think they can score enough. The Seahawks are better everywhere, but there is something to those close games. It really means we have to quantify how much those games were close because they were in Carolina, or how much the loss of Loutulelei will impact the Seahawks easiest path to win (running).
The Pick: The game that screams out as similar to me is the last game the Seahawks just played, their Week 17 win against the Rams. That Rams team controlled the line of scrimmage (possible that Carolina does that), they had a 6-0 lead at the half, but their overall inability to move the ball and turnovers ruined the game for them. The Seahawks won comfortably, but it wasn't a blowout. I can see the same happening here, but I think the Panthers the way they are currently playing, are better than that Rams team, better enough to cover one of the higher lines we've seen in the playoffs in a while.
Panthers 13 Seahawks 20 (CAR +10.5)
(N3) Dallas Cowboys (12-4) @ (N2) Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Sun. 1:05 - FOX | Packers -6.5
The State of the Teams: The big question coming into this one is how much Aaron Rodgers' calf injury will impact him. We haven't really dealt with a clear and readily apparent QB injury before a playoff game in a while. Rodgers looked severely limited when he came back in the game against the Lions. He was still effective throwing, but he basically only stayed in the pocket. Against a team that doesn't rush all that well in Dallas that may not be a huge issue, but it changes the dynamism of the Packers offense. The Packers otherwise are healthy, but when their best player is in question, that changes everything. The Packers defense has really stabilized, and while it looked awful in the first 20 minutes against the Lions, in general they've done well in their Tampa-2 scheme. They are coached well, and while there are seemingly no great players, they did quietly rank #2 in the NFL in takeaways, and are consistent in getting them. The Cowboys o-line was awful, but that will most likely be an outlier rather than the new status quo. The only real injury to worry about is Rolando McClain, who left with an 'illness' (concussion). Nothing really defines the astounding nature of the Cowboys defense than Rolando McClain being a key cog.
The Matchup: To me, the key to this matchup is can the Cowboys offense absolutely win their matchup against the Packers to the point that it neutralizes Green Bay's offense. There is a recipe for them to do it. They have a great running game matching up against a not-so-good Packers rush defense. They are certainly in a more advantageous spot here than against the Lions and their historically good rush defense. Their o-line is bad against blitzes, but they'll likely be more prepared for that against a team that likes to blitz. Dez Bryant can win his matchup against anyone, and the Packers really struggle against TEs. The Cowboys offense can win that matchup; they really should win that matchup. The key is can they win in terms of scoring 7 instead of 3, and putting up 35 minutes. The key to hiding that Cowboys defense is literally hiding them, in terms of keeping them on the sidelines. Obviously, the other matchup comes down to Rodgers effectiveness. If he's close to 100%, the Packers will likely roll. If he's not, and he's likely not, they might struggle at times. That red zone offense hasn't been great this year and may be worse with a gimpy Rodgers removing his running threat.
The Pick: I have to pick an upset, and while I'm not confident of how easy this looks, given Rodgers' injury situation, this is my pick. The Cowboys offense is their defense, and their offense is good enough to win that individual matchup and dominate TOP. They are definitely better suited to do it here than against the Lions. They match up better here, where their running game can win the matchups, where Romo can get protection, and their offense can hide a defense that, in a limited time on field, can play well against a potentially injured Romo.
The Matchup: To me, the key to this matchup is can the Cowboys offense absolutely win their matchup against the Packers to the point that it neutralizes Green Bay's offense. There is a recipe for them to do it. They have a great running game matching up against a not-so-good Packers rush defense. They are certainly in a more advantageous spot here than against the Lions and their historically good rush defense. Their o-line is bad against blitzes, but they'll likely be more prepared for that against a team that likes to blitz. Dez Bryant can win his matchup against anyone, and the Packers really struggle against TEs. The Cowboys offense can win that matchup; they really should win that matchup. The key is can they win in terms of scoring 7 instead of 3, and putting up 35 minutes. The key to hiding that Cowboys defense is literally hiding them, in terms of keeping them on the sidelines. Obviously, the other matchup comes down to Rodgers effectiveness. If he's close to 100%, the Packers will likely roll. If he's not, and he's likely not, they might struggle at times. That red zone offense hasn't been great this year and may be worse with a gimpy Rodgers removing his running threat.
The Pick: I have to pick an upset, and while I'm not confident of how easy this looks, given Rodgers' injury situation, this is my pick. The Cowboys offense is their defense, and their offense is good enough to win that individual matchup and dominate TOP. They are definitely better suited to do it here than against the Lions. They match up better here, where their running game can win the matchups, where Romo can get protection, and their offense can hide a defense that, in a limited time on field, can play well against a potentially injured Romo.
Cowboys 27 Packers 24 (DAL +6.5)
(A4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ (A2) Denver Broncos (12-4)
Sun. 4:45 - CBS | Broncos -7
The State of the Teams: The Broncos last had a week off in Week 4, the week after their 'This is the Super Bowl Preview!' OT loss against the Seahawks. They had to live through Sanders having a concussion, Welker doing nothing, Julius Thomas getting hurt, and the O-Line shuffling around, but are now healthy. No real contributor is hurt in any way, other than for the people that think Manning is hurt (which I do not think is true). The Broncos are as healthy as they can be, and I'm hoping that week off gave Manning time to rest tat thigh. The Colts, on the other hand, have slowly back-sled into the team they were in 2012-13. The once decent o-line has become injury-riddled and bad. Their WRs are hurting with Hilton still nursing an injury and Wayne being marginalized. The defense is better than it has been in the past few years, but the offense can't really be counted on. Their running game is awful, as the only guy that can run also fumbles and is bad in pass protection. The Colts were a good team for a lot of this season, but injuries, for the umpteenth year in Indianapolis, have ruined this team.
The Mathcup: The Colts one kryptonite on offense is a good pass rush. Luck struggles against pass rush when he can't escape, and the Broncos are good at that. They generally do a great job of rushing while keeping their integrity and not letting mobile QBs get off. The Broncos defense on paper is great, by conventional stats and advanced. They give up bad 3rd downs, and that can definitely be an issue against a team that likes to throw deep, but the Broncos are one of the best defenses against deep balls. The Broncos defense will also shut down any hope of a running game. The more interesting question is the other side. Despite giving up 33 points, they did a great job against Denver last year, and did an average job this year (gave up 31), but it is hard to think they'll do it again. Over the year, the Colts have shown no ability to rush the passer against a good offense. Hell, they haven't shown any ability to do anything against a good offense. The Colts will likely put Vontae on Demaryius. The key here will be if Julius Thomas is finally healthy. If he is, then he can have a huge game against the bad team against TEs. The Colts do have one real advantage, though. They are quite good on Special Teams, while the Broncos, like every Manning team ever, is awful.
The Pick: This is the least competitive on paper. The Colts in Week 5 had a decent shot, but the Colts in Week 19 have a far less shot unless one of two things happen. First, if Manning is truly hurt, which I don't think he is and I'm not factoring in here, and second, if Andrew Luck has just a inhuman game, but I don't see either as likely. The Broncos are a better team, and what is odd is I haven't even mentioned the biggest name in Denver: CJ Anderson. The running game should work well against the Colts, and do well to perpetuate the 'Manning is hurt' myth.
Colts 20 Broncos 34 (DEN -7)
