It's that great time of year... NFL PLAYOFF TIME. And to get us started, here's my yearly Playoff Primer, the one 40,000 word document guaranteed to be fully wrong within 14 days. As a preview each team capsule has the following information:
Stat Breakdown giving their points and yards for and against, and then their Football Outsiders DVOA numbers overall, and for offense, defense and Special Teams.
The capsule also includes write-ups on their offense and defense, QB and coaching staffs, with a concluding ranking of 1-6, compared to their NFC (and AFC, for the next post) playoff comrades.
Finally, for teams seeded 6-3, I'll give a brief look a which of the Top-2 seeds I think they can beat over the other.
As a note, I utilize Football Outsiders' stats a lot, including their overall DVOA figures, DVOA and DYAR figures for players, O-Line and D-Line stats, and their drive stats. All of these are readily available at FootballOutsiders.com, a site that should be a must-visit for any real NFL fan in the 21st Century. I have not used any stats that are for their paid Premium members (of which I am), but they reveal almost too much great information.
Here We Go...
6.) Detroit Lions (11-5 = 321-282)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 321 ptf (22nd), 282 pta (3rd), +39 ptd (13th), 5,452 ydf (19th), 4815 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: +4.4% team (14th), -3.7% off (19th), -13.8% def (3rd), -5.7% st (31st)
Offense: This was so much harder to rank in the AFC, where all the offenses are between league average to Top-5 in the NFL. The NFC is far more dichotic. The Lions start off as a team that is basically the exact opposite of the last Lions team to make the playoffs. That team scored 474 points, averaged nearly 400 yards per game, and Matthew Stafford had a 97.2 passer rating with 41 TDs. This year's team scored 150 fewer points, gained 900 fewer yards, and Stafford's rating fell to 85.7. Now, Calvin Johnson was injured for part of the year, and the TEs of the Lions offense cratered, but there is no good reason why the Lions offense is this bad. But it is. We have 16 games of evidence to show that the Lions are at best an average offense. There is nothing the Lions are really bad in, but they are just average at seemingly everything apart from not turning the ball over. They are between 15-20 in DVOA in the following: passing, rushing, pass protection, run blocking, yards/drive, points/drive, and red zone offense. If Calvin is healthy they can potentially be dangerous as they've been able to integrate Golden Tate into the offense well, but it is hard to really count on any of that happening. If only they could have combined the 2011 Lions Offense with this year's team. Rank: 5th
Defense: The Lions were the #1 defense by DVOA for the first 10-12 weeks or so. They were never historically good by DVOA, but were consistently excellent. Then, the Bills overtook them for a few weeks, bouyed by Buffalo beating down the Packers. Finally, the Seahawks took over the top spot, but the Lions still do something better than any team, and something historically good: stop the run. Now, that was much more useful when the Ravens did it in 2000 (that's the only rush defense with a higher DVOA), but the Lions being able to essentially rule out the run game with their front is important. The Lions secondary is a lot better this year with the improvements from their corners, and Deandre Levy has been arguably a Top-5 coverage linebacker. The Lions defense is solid at all levels. They have fits where they don't get enough pressure, which can allow teams to throw underneath to reasonable success, but they tackle well. The Lions are surprisingly average in the red zone, but are top-10 in all the other drive stats, including forcing takeaways, something not true of even the better Jim Schwartz-led defenses With Suh un-suspended, and Nick Fairley potentially returning, this is a great defense that would rank #1 in the AFC. Unortunately, they are in the NFC, but Suh and Co., are still good enough to allow for a middling offense to be good enough to win games.. Rank: 2nd
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford is between the 15th and 10th best QB in the NFL. He was closer to Top-5 in 2011, but that seems to have been his peak season unless something changes. Stafford is still just 27, but he seems to really plateaued mentally as a QB. Stafford himself ranked 15th in DYAR, but just 20th in DVOA. Some of that can be explained away by injuries to the o-line and a gimpy/injured Megatron, but that is not what you expect given the bevy of the rest of the weapons at Stafford's disposal. His one playoff performance was a decent game, but his team was overmatched. He should have the confidence this time that the Lions won't allow the most yards ever in a playoff game. Rank: 5th
Coaching: Jim Caldwell flew under the radar as a 1st-year coach to lead his team to success. He inherited a talented-but-flawed team that went 11-21 in the past two seasons. His team played sharper, more determined and less reckless. If he were anyone other than the man last seen failing in Indianapolis and calling random timeouts in playoff games, people would care. I don't think Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi has done anything to make me trust him, though. Defensive Coordinator Terryl Austin is the opposite though. I would love to rank them higher, but the NFC is loaded with good coaching staffs. Rank: 6th.
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Packers: I don't think the Lions can beat either, but I think they have a better shot to beat the Packers. That would require winning in Lambeau, a place where that franchise hasn't won since the pre-Favre days. Still, their defense knows the rhythms of that Packers passing offense reasonably well right now, generally holding them under 30. Their offense has struggled all year, but if you need them to break out and score 27 points, it is far more likely they do that against the Packers than Seahawks.
5.) Arizona Cardinals (11-5 = 310-299)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 310 ptf (24th), 299 pta (5th), +11 ptd (16th), 5,116 ydf (24th), 5,891 yda (24th)
= Outsiders: -6.0% team (22nd), -9.3% off (23rd), -5.5% def (7th), -2.2% st (21st)
Offense: Despite giving no plaudits to the Lions offense, they aren't close to the worst offense in the NFC Playoffs. That is the Lindley, or at best Stanton-led, Cardinals. In some ways, they are like the Lions but worse in everything. They too don't really turn the ball over, but that's because while Carson Palmer was safe with the ball, Ryan Lindley is almost too inaccurate to be intercepted. They are 20th or worse in all those categories the Lions were between 15-20, apart from a slight ability to pass protect. With Ellington hurt even the run game is completely ineffective. With Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and a relatively re-born Michael Floyd, they have some interesting weapons, but unless Stanton comes back they are basically completely hopeless. Let's just move on, I'm so depressed. Rank: 6th.
Defense: The general trend through the season was the Cardinals defense was playing really well despite their injuries and the pressure put on a team to never allow an opponent to score 20 points. That is mostly true even today, but the injuries that appeared early in the season are rueing themselves today with the depth pressed more than previously. The Cardinals still do a few things really well. They are the best team in the NFL at forcing runs of zero or negative yards, allowing them to get ahead of the downs a ton. Their rush defense overall has fallen off (100+ yards in 5 of last 6, 200+ in last two) but that is more teams getting huge chunks when breaking the line of scrimmage. The Cardinals also cover well. They are incredible against slot and 3rd WRs, showing their depth, and are great against RBs. They limit the opponents production to only #1 and #2 receivers. The issue with the Cardinals is that they aren't great at getting pressure without blitzing. Their big-safety look (3 or 4 safeties) allows them to blitz and cover well, but when you basically have to blitz to get pass rush, that is not a great place to be in. They are still good enough in the run game to rate where they do, but the current iteration of the Cardinals defense is nowhere near the teams #3-1, especially the #1 and #2 teams. That wasn't the case through October. Rank: 4th.
Quarterback: The NFC is a bit boring, where I'm probably going to rank the QBs the same way as the offenses, but that is the case more often than not in the modern NFL. This is an easy pick, however. Ryan Lindley or Drew Stanton is the worst QB in the playoffs this year. Stanton actually had a modest year in the advanced metrics, with a positive DVOA and DYAR, but Lindley was below in both. He's just not a good QB. I'm happy for him that Lindley threw a TD pass finally, but he is the biggest liability any one team in the playoffs. Rank: 6th
Coaching: Bruce Arians is a God, going 21-11 in is first two seasons in Arizona, the best two-year run the franchise has ever had since the Sid Gillman days. Still, the bloom came off the rose a bit with his inability to adjust the offense to something even competent with Lindley at QB. Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles is starting to get a little too aggressive in his defensive calling, which can hurt as well. The coaching staff is still good, but cracks have appeared against conditions no one should face. Rank: 4th.
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Packers: The Cardinals really can't beat anyone. They might be the most obvious team to lose a Wild Card game since the Vikings with Joe Webb from two years ago (or the Matt Cassel Chiefs in 2010). If they are going to put up a miracle upset, it would be over the Packers, against a defense that would more likely allow a few long bombs to the receivers. The blitz package won't likely work against either, but I think their defense would fare better against a less explosive running game.
4.) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1 = 339-374)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 339 ptf (19th), 374 pta (21st), -35 ptd (23rd), 5,547 ydf (16th), 5,437 yda (10th)
= Outsiders: -8.9% team (25th), -5.0% off (20th), -1.6% def (15th), -5.5% st (30th)
Offense: For the Panthers, we really have to separate their post-bye performance (4-1, with the loss in a game where they basically played the Vikings even but lost due to two blocked punts for TDs) from the pre-bye. Pre-bye was among the worst offenses in the NFL. Cam Newton had no time, was hobbling around when he did have time, and his receivers alternated amazing catches and ten drops. The Panthers offense was terrible. Post-bye, the offense is still not good, but it resembles the unit that finished 2013 as a Top-10 offense. The Panthers all year were reasonably good at sustaning drives and avoiding 3-and-outs, and holding onto the ball. That helps supplement their defense. Cam Newton has grown more comfortable oddly after his car crash, as he's back to running 5-10 times a game, even on designed runs. An active Cam Newton is a dangerous one. With Jonathan Stewart looking healthy they have a full run game now. Kelvin Benjamin drops way too many passes, but he remains a good downfield target for Cam. The Panthers offense is also back to its cool scheming ways that work to score ~20 points a game. That's good enough in the NFC for at least one round. Rank: 4th.
Defense: Over 16 games, the Panthers defense looks average, ranking 15th in DVOA. They are, however, 7th in weighted DVOA, an adjustment that weighs recent games more. Of course, over the most recent set of games, they're even better. The Panthers haven't allowed 20 points on defense since their embarrassing loss on Monday Night to Philadelphia. They haven't allowed 400 yards since their tie. Some of those were due to starters resting late, but the Panthers defense has been trending upwards for a while now. Their rushing defense has become strong once again, and their pass rush improved from one of the worst in the league to a Top-10 unit in the 2nd half as everyone gets used to their Greg Hardy-less roles. Due to employing Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly, they are great against TEs and RBs, but struggle at times outside. That has gotten better when the coaching staff replaced aging, useless vets with Tre Boston and Bene Benwikere. Those guys aren't great, but they're doing what the Drayton Florence and Captain Munnerlyn types did last year. The Panthers were surprisingly below average in the red zone, but that is another area where they've improved. The 2013 Panthers were basically 90% as good as last year's Seahawks team. This year's Panthers are probably 80% as good as last year's Panthers team, but trends say they're close to their best right now.. Rank: 3rd
Quarterback: Cam Newton is far better than those numbers. He had nothing to work with most of the year. The Panthers o-line was awful, his main targets kept switching and his receivers dropped basically all the passes. Newton stayed engaged and stayed as good. One of the keys of their turnaround was stability in the o-line, which stabilized Cam Newton. The Cam Newton of the past four weeks was the same guy that led a 12-4 team last year. Rank: 4th.
Coaching: It's weird to lob some praise for a team that went 7-8-1, but let's look at the team that went 4-1 and the coaching staff that took them there. Ron Rivera basically controls that defense, and his personnel changes keyed the defensive resurgence, like removing Thomas Decoud in favor of Tre Boston and inserting Bene Benwikere. The offense itself schemes well and gets their limited players into space and allows them to make plays. I like this staff more than most, and I like Ron Rivera's go-for-it mentality. Rank: 2nd.
Top-2 Seed That They Could Beat = Seahawks: The Seahawks and Panthers have played two extremely close games in the last two seasons. The Seahawks won 12-7 and 13-9, both times scoring late TD drives to win the game. The Panthers defense can do well against that running game, and stop the TEs and RBs that Wilson uses a lot, and have the defensive speed to track Russell Wilson. On offense, I'm not sure how they would score, but I like their chances against a team they've barely lost to than the team they trailed 35-3 against (Green Bay).
3.) Dallas Cowboys (12-4 = 467-352)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 467 ptf (5th), 352 pta (15th), +115 ptd (5th), 6,122 ydf (7th), 5,681 yda (19th)
= Outsiders: +13.8% team (6th), +17.0% off (4th), +4.1% def (22nd), +0.9% st (12th)
Offense: I don't know if they're better on offense than they were in 2007, but they are definitely more efficient. They turn the ball over less, move the ball more, and are basically an ultra-efficient 1990's offense playing in the 2010s. It is horrifying that Demarco Murray was given nearly 400 carries, especially when primary backup Lance Dunbarr averaged nearly 7 yards per carry. The offense stayed healthy and their top players played well. Tony Romo was #2 in DVOA this season, and #5 in DYAR despite missing two games. Jason Witten had his best season in years. Dez Bryant stayed healthy and focused and scored 16 TDs on just 85 catches. Finally, that o-line is sturdy, is the best run-blocking line in the NFL and keeps Romo upright. They've built a throw-back offense that works so well. They are great in most of the per-drive stats, ranking Top-5 in Yards/drive, points/drive (2nd), and red zone efficiency (3rd). They do everything well, and even though they are doing it in a way that is feels more a home in 1994 than 2014, doesn't mean the Cowboys are bad. In fact, if they go deep, or continue this efficiency in 2015, it may be an interesting case study and example that running and building a great o-line is the new market inefficiency in the NFL. Rank: 2nd.
Defense: The Cowboys defense was a laughing stock coming into 2014. They followed up a franchise-worst defense in 2012 (Hello, Rob Ryan!) with an ever more absurd 2013 group. Well, despite losing Sean Lee and letting Demarcus Ware walk, they improved to below average, which is nice. They rank 22nd in total defensive DVOA, 22nd against the pass and 23rd against the run. They are top half against #3+ WRs, RBs and TEs, but their main corners struggle a lot against top weapons. Their pass rush sorely misses Demarcus Ware, ranking poorly in hits and sacks. There are a couple areas where the Cowboys (relatively) excel in, and they both align with what a good Tampa-2 defense should do. They are the top team in the NFL in forcing turnovers per drive. They also force more field goals than all but two teams. Giving up scores of yards is mititaged when you force a ton of fumbles and force teams to kick field goals. That won't save them overall, as turnovers dry up in the playoffs, but that is a pretty noticeable area to rank really well in. Better that than the alternative of being average to worse in everything. Rank: 6th
Quarterback: I'm not a proponent of 'QB Playoff Winzz' so I do believe that Tony Romo is better than Russell Wilson. You can make some argument he was better than Rodgers this year. I won't personally, but the argument is there. Romo was amazingly accurate this season, with a completion percentage close to 70%, and above 72% over the past 8 games. Romo was the most efficient QB in the NFL this season, and the one knock is he didn't have to throw as much as others. He still did more in fewer throws than most. Rank: 2nd.
Coaching: I had a hard time placing the Cowboys coaching staff. Jason Garrett owns that offense that suceeded all year long as arguably the most ruthlessly efficient and consistent offense in the league at both running and passing. There is some blame to go around for the decision to give Demarco 400 carries, but that is a bigger problem for 2015. The defense improved and played above its talent level with Rod Marinelli involved, which is nice. Overall, their time management and game management issues hurt them in my eyes, but that is a good staff overall. Rank: 5th.
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Seahawks: Because, well, we've seen it. The Cowboys haven't beaten the Packers since that Favre TNF game in 2007. They even lost to a Matt Flynn led team last year after leading by a bunch. As for Seattle, they went into Seattle and smacked them. The game was close because the Seahawks scored 17 points on drives that went less than 30 yards. The Cowboys physically mauled them up front and outgained Seattle 2-1. That won't happen again, but the same matchup edges exist.
2.) Green Bay Packers (12-4 = 484-348)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 486 ptf (1st), 348 pta (13th), +138 ptd (3rd), 6,178 ydf (6th), 5,542 (15th)
= Outsiders: +23.3% team (3rd), +24.6% off (1st), -1.0% def (16th), -2.3% st (22nd)
Offense: It starts and ends with Aaron Rodgers, the best QB in the NFL. Rodgers finished 1st in DVOA, and slightly behind Roethlisberger, who threw the ball ~50 more times. Rodgers' 38-5 TD/INT is just sickeningly good. You have to adjust for era a lot, but statistically he's the modern day Steve Young, someone who has mastered the things that make you good by QB rating. He may be somewhat limited in the playoffs if that calf injury reaggravates, but the Packers looked decent using Rodgers exclusively as a pocket passer on Sunday. Cobb and Nelson were both Top-7 in both DYAR/DVOA for WRs, being the best and most perfectly meshed, WR duo in the NFL. Rodgers is even more comfortable using Richard Rodgers as a TE this year. They score more points than anyone per drive, score more TDs than anyone, and go three-and-out less than all but two teams. They are the best offense in the NFL, and with Eddie Lacy healthy and good for the past 10 games they can beat you running the ball as well (they ended up #6 in rushing DVOA; that is bumped up by Rodgers himself). The Packers had some notable struggles on the road against good defenses (Seattle, Detroit, Buffalo), but it isn't like many teams dominated those defenses on the road. What sets this Packers offense apart from their other recent teams aside from 2011 (when they were unhuman) is their o-line gives Rodgers plenty of time this season; scary, scary stuff. Rank: 1st.
Defense: The Packers defense is probably better than you think but also worse than you think at the same time. They have mitigated some of the problems that faced their defenses from 2011-2013, but they do also excel in the areas those teams excel in. They rarely give up big gains on the ground. They are Top-5 in creating takeaways, something the Packers have seemingly done well throughout the Rodgers era. The Packers defense is better against the pass, but their corners are tasked with playing a lot of man coverage which doesn't always work. The Packers are perfectly slightly above average across the board in pass defense, ranking between 9-16 against #1/#2/#3+/TEs/RBs in DVOA. It's not great to not have any area where you excel, but its also good to have no true weakness to attack. The Packers won't win because of this defense, but they have enough athletes, and a scheme that can create enough mismatches, to make the 3-4 stops necessary to win games. Rank: 5th
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers is great. He's the best QB in the NFL right now. He's the best quantitatively (highest passer rating, best DVOA, best DYAR if you include rushing, etc., etc.), or qualitatively (he can do things no one else can dream of). Rodgers may be effected by that calf injury, but with a full two weeks off (Packers play the Sunday early window in the Divisional Round), I'm more worried about a re-aggravation than the current one hampering him. Rodgers is incredibly quick with his delivery, can fire them on the run (when perfectly healthy) to his right or to his left, and with a better o-line, his sack issue is even lessened. Rank: 1st.
Coaching: We tend to focus too much on what a coach does on Game Day. We criticize the 4th down calls, the punts, the use of timeouts. However, what happens the other 165 hours that are not game day is far more important. That is where McCarthy excels, building game plans that utilize each member of the Packers offensive skill players. Dom Capers defense played well this year and showed more flexibility than in years past. Rank: 3rd.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (12-4 = 394-254)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 394 ptf (10th), 254 pta (1st), +140 23ptd (2nd), 6,012 (9th), 4,274 yda ((1st)
= Outsiders: +31.3% team (1st), +16.7% off (5th), -16.3% def (1st), -1.7% st (19th)
Offense: The Seahawks offense generally looks better by advanced metrics since they never turn it over and throw deep more often than most teams. That said, I still think the numbers from Outsiders overrates the Seahawks offense. They are the best rushing attack in the NFL, mainly because Russell Wilson had probably the best rushing season by a QB since Michael Vick's Atlanta days, or at least Cam Newton in his rookie season. The Seahawks are a middling red zone offense, and very average in passing the ball. Quietly, Russell Wilson got worse as a passer in 2014. Some of that could be injuries to o-line and weapons, but he was less accurate. Wilson ended up 16th in DYAR and DVOA. Not great. The passing attack has no one great weapon, but Paul Richardson played well as the season went along. Still, this is all about the running game. Marshawn Lynch had another fantastic season, placing 3rd in rushing DVOA and DYAR. Even backups Christian Michel and Michael Turbin played. I don't know if it is really an improvement in run blocking, or Lynch and Russell Wilson turning disaster into 20 yard gains, but the Seahawks can grind clock as good as any team. They just better hope they don't fall behind by more than 7 late, because I don't know if the 2014 Seahawks passing offense can bring them back. Rank: 3rd.
Rank: The 2013 Seahawks definitely cratered in teh middle of the season, when Bobby Wagner got hurt, and Red Bryant went on IR. Bryant is obviously not coming back, but Wagner did and the Seahawks went on a 2000 Ravens type run of stopping teams. Against average opponents (Cardsx2, 49ersx2, Eagles, Rams), the Seahawks gave up just 33 points, not giving up a TD on four occasions, and giving up no more than 245 yards. Speaking of yards, they gave up ~550 fewer yards than any other team, and ever since following their loss to Dallas, gave up over 300 yards just once (their win over the Giants). All in all, they gave up fewer yards than the 2013 Seahawks did. Still, before people think this team is that team, there are some areas of concern. Their pass rush improved from awful to league average, but it is still league average. They finished #3 in passing defense DVOA, and had a weakness against TEs that last year's team did not. Overall they were the 2nd worse #1 defensive DVOA in Football Outsiders history. They are awful in the red zone, ranking 3rd worst in giving up points per red zone trip. They are just league average at forcing takeaways. There are some negatives there. Of course, they're still the best defense in the NFL, suffocating opponents all year since Dallas overpowered them.. Rank: 1st
Quarterback: I thought about putting Cam Newton ahead of Russell, but then I came to my senses and left that haterade behind. Still, Wilson definitely regressed at a QBs main job, which is passing effectively. He finished 14th in DYAR and 15th in DVOA, which is probably around right. There were fewer weapons for him this year, but not too far worse than last year or the year before. Wilson got worse as a passer. Luckily for him and Seattle, he's the best running QB in the NFL since Michael Vick's prime. Rank: 3rd.
Coaching: Pete Carroll's defense took the challenge of increased scrutiny on contact and holding and responded by playing basically the same anyway. Carroll gets that team motivated like few others and his scheme has turned the Seahawks into a monster once again on defense. Bevell's offense has adjusted to more run heavy than in year's past, which showed good ability to respond to personnel and strength changes. This Seahawks coaching staff is on a roll right now. Rank: 1st.
Stat Breakdown giving their points and yards for and against, and then their Football Outsiders DVOA numbers overall, and for offense, defense and Special Teams.
The capsule also includes write-ups on their offense and defense, QB and coaching staffs, with a concluding ranking of 1-6, compared to their NFC (and AFC, for the next post) playoff comrades.
Finally, for teams seeded 6-3, I'll give a brief look a which of the Top-2 seeds I think they can beat over the other.
As a note, I utilize Football Outsiders' stats a lot, including their overall DVOA figures, DVOA and DYAR figures for players, O-Line and D-Line stats, and their drive stats. All of these are readily available at FootballOutsiders.com, a site that should be a must-visit for any real NFL fan in the 21st Century. I have not used any stats that are for their paid Premium members (of which I am), but they reveal almost too much great information.
Here We Go...
6.) Detroit Lions (11-5 = 321-282)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 321 ptf (22nd), 282 pta (3rd), +39 ptd (13th), 5,452 ydf (19th), 4815 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: +4.4% team (14th), -3.7% off (19th), -13.8% def (3rd), -5.7% st (31st)
Offense: This was so much harder to rank in the AFC, where all the offenses are between league average to Top-5 in the NFL. The NFC is far more dichotic. The Lions start off as a team that is basically the exact opposite of the last Lions team to make the playoffs. That team scored 474 points, averaged nearly 400 yards per game, and Matthew Stafford had a 97.2 passer rating with 41 TDs. This year's team scored 150 fewer points, gained 900 fewer yards, and Stafford's rating fell to 85.7. Now, Calvin Johnson was injured for part of the year, and the TEs of the Lions offense cratered, but there is no good reason why the Lions offense is this bad. But it is. We have 16 games of evidence to show that the Lions are at best an average offense. There is nothing the Lions are really bad in, but they are just average at seemingly everything apart from not turning the ball over. They are between 15-20 in DVOA in the following: passing, rushing, pass protection, run blocking, yards/drive, points/drive, and red zone offense. If Calvin is healthy they can potentially be dangerous as they've been able to integrate Golden Tate into the offense well, but it is hard to really count on any of that happening. If only they could have combined the 2011 Lions Offense with this year's team. Rank: 5th
Defense: The Lions were the #1 defense by DVOA for the first 10-12 weeks or so. They were never historically good by DVOA, but were consistently excellent. Then, the Bills overtook them for a few weeks, bouyed by Buffalo beating down the Packers. Finally, the Seahawks took over the top spot, but the Lions still do something better than any team, and something historically good: stop the run. Now, that was much more useful when the Ravens did it in 2000 (that's the only rush defense with a higher DVOA), but the Lions being able to essentially rule out the run game with their front is important. The Lions secondary is a lot better this year with the improvements from their corners, and Deandre Levy has been arguably a Top-5 coverage linebacker. The Lions defense is solid at all levels. They have fits where they don't get enough pressure, which can allow teams to throw underneath to reasonable success, but they tackle well. The Lions are surprisingly average in the red zone, but are top-10 in all the other drive stats, including forcing takeaways, something not true of even the better Jim Schwartz-led defenses With Suh un-suspended, and Nick Fairley potentially returning, this is a great defense that would rank #1 in the AFC. Unortunately, they are in the NFC, but Suh and Co., are still good enough to allow for a middling offense to be good enough to win games.. Rank: 2nd
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford is between the 15th and 10th best QB in the NFL. He was closer to Top-5 in 2011, but that seems to have been his peak season unless something changes. Stafford is still just 27, but he seems to really plateaued mentally as a QB. Stafford himself ranked 15th in DYAR, but just 20th in DVOA. Some of that can be explained away by injuries to the o-line and a gimpy/injured Megatron, but that is not what you expect given the bevy of the rest of the weapons at Stafford's disposal. His one playoff performance was a decent game, but his team was overmatched. He should have the confidence this time that the Lions won't allow the most yards ever in a playoff game. Rank: 5th
Coaching: Jim Caldwell flew under the radar as a 1st-year coach to lead his team to success. He inherited a talented-but-flawed team that went 11-21 in the past two seasons. His team played sharper, more determined and less reckless. If he were anyone other than the man last seen failing in Indianapolis and calling random timeouts in playoff games, people would care. I don't think Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi has done anything to make me trust him, though. Defensive Coordinator Terryl Austin is the opposite though. I would love to rank them higher, but the NFC is loaded with good coaching staffs. Rank: 6th.
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Packers: I don't think the Lions can beat either, but I think they have a better shot to beat the Packers. That would require winning in Lambeau, a place where that franchise hasn't won since the pre-Favre days. Still, their defense knows the rhythms of that Packers passing offense reasonably well right now, generally holding them under 30. Their offense has struggled all year, but if you need them to break out and score 27 points, it is far more likely they do that against the Packers than Seahawks.
5.) Arizona Cardinals (11-5 = 310-299)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 310 ptf (24th), 299 pta (5th), +11 ptd (16th), 5,116 ydf (24th), 5,891 yda (24th)
= Outsiders: -6.0% team (22nd), -9.3% off (23rd), -5.5% def (7th), -2.2% st (21st)
Offense: Despite giving no plaudits to the Lions offense, they aren't close to the worst offense in the NFC Playoffs. That is the Lindley, or at best Stanton-led, Cardinals. In some ways, they are like the Lions but worse in everything. They too don't really turn the ball over, but that's because while Carson Palmer was safe with the ball, Ryan Lindley is almost too inaccurate to be intercepted. They are 20th or worse in all those categories the Lions were between 15-20, apart from a slight ability to pass protect. With Ellington hurt even the run game is completely ineffective. With Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and a relatively re-born Michael Floyd, they have some interesting weapons, but unless Stanton comes back they are basically completely hopeless. Let's just move on, I'm so depressed. Rank: 6th.
Defense: The general trend through the season was the Cardinals defense was playing really well despite their injuries and the pressure put on a team to never allow an opponent to score 20 points. That is mostly true even today, but the injuries that appeared early in the season are rueing themselves today with the depth pressed more than previously. The Cardinals still do a few things really well. They are the best team in the NFL at forcing runs of zero or negative yards, allowing them to get ahead of the downs a ton. Their rush defense overall has fallen off (100+ yards in 5 of last 6, 200+ in last two) but that is more teams getting huge chunks when breaking the line of scrimmage. The Cardinals also cover well. They are incredible against slot and 3rd WRs, showing their depth, and are great against RBs. They limit the opponents production to only #1 and #2 receivers. The issue with the Cardinals is that they aren't great at getting pressure without blitzing. Their big-safety look (3 or 4 safeties) allows them to blitz and cover well, but when you basically have to blitz to get pass rush, that is not a great place to be in. They are still good enough in the run game to rate where they do, but the current iteration of the Cardinals defense is nowhere near the teams #3-1, especially the #1 and #2 teams. That wasn't the case through October. Rank: 4th.
Quarterback: The NFC is a bit boring, where I'm probably going to rank the QBs the same way as the offenses, but that is the case more often than not in the modern NFL. This is an easy pick, however. Ryan Lindley or Drew Stanton is the worst QB in the playoffs this year. Stanton actually had a modest year in the advanced metrics, with a positive DVOA and DYAR, but Lindley was below in both. He's just not a good QB. I'm happy for him that Lindley threw a TD pass finally, but he is the biggest liability any one team in the playoffs. Rank: 6th
Coaching: Bruce Arians is a God, going 21-11 in is first two seasons in Arizona, the best two-year run the franchise has ever had since the Sid Gillman days. Still, the bloom came off the rose a bit with his inability to adjust the offense to something even competent with Lindley at QB. Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles is starting to get a little too aggressive in his defensive calling, which can hurt as well. The coaching staff is still good, but cracks have appeared against conditions no one should face. Rank: 4th.
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Packers: The Cardinals really can't beat anyone. They might be the most obvious team to lose a Wild Card game since the Vikings with Joe Webb from two years ago (or the Matt Cassel Chiefs in 2010). If they are going to put up a miracle upset, it would be over the Packers, against a defense that would more likely allow a few long bombs to the receivers. The blitz package won't likely work against either, but I think their defense would fare better against a less explosive running game.
4.) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1 = 339-374)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 339 ptf (19th), 374 pta (21st), -35 ptd (23rd), 5,547 ydf (16th), 5,437 yda (10th)
= Outsiders: -8.9% team (25th), -5.0% off (20th), -1.6% def (15th), -5.5% st (30th)
Offense: For the Panthers, we really have to separate their post-bye performance (4-1, with the loss in a game where they basically played the Vikings even but lost due to two blocked punts for TDs) from the pre-bye. Pre-bye was among the worst offenses in the NFL. Cam Newton had no time, was hobbling around when he did have time, and his receivers alternated amazing catches and ten drops. The Panthers offense was terrible. Post-bye, the offense is still not good, but it resembles the unit that finished 2013 as a Top-10 offense. The Panthers all year were reasonably good at sustaning drives and avoiding 3-and-outs, and holding onto the ball. That helps supplement their defense. Cam Newton has grown more comfortable oddly after his car crash, as he's back to running 5-10 times a game, even on designed runs. An active Cam Newton is a dangerous one. With Jonathan Stewart looking healthy they have a full run game now. Kelvin Benjamin drops way too many passes, but he remains a good downfield target for Cam. The Panthers offense is also back to its cool scheming ways that work to score ~20 points a game. That's good enough in the NFC for at least one round. Rank: 4th.
Defense: Over 16 games, the Panthers defense looks average, ranking 15th in DVOA. They are, however, 7th in weighted DVOA, an adjustment that weighs recent games more. Of course, over the most recent set of games, they're even better. The Panthers haven't allowed 20 points on defense since their embarrassing loss on Monday Night to Philadelphia. They haven't allowed 400 yards since their tie. Some of those were due to starters resting late, but the Panthers defense has been trending upwards for a while now. Their rushing defense has become strong once again, and their pass rush improved from one of the worst in the league to a Top-10 unit in the 2nd half as everyone gets used to their Greg Hardy-less roles. Due to employing Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly, they are great against TEs and RBs, but struggle at times outside. That has gotten better when the coaching staff replaced aging, useless vets with Tre Boston and Bene Benwikere. Those guys aren't great, but they're doing what the Drayton Florence and Captain Munnerlyn types did last year. The Panthers were surprisingly below average in the red zone, but that is another area where they've improved. The 2013 Panthers were basically 90% as good as last year's Seahawks team. This year's Panthers are probably 80% as good as last year's Panthers team, but trends say they're close to their best right now.. Rank: 3rd
Quarterback: Cam Newton is far better than those numbers. He had nothing to work with most of the year. The Panthers o-line was awful, his main targets kept switching and his receivers dropped basically all the passes. Newton stayed engaged and stayed as good. One of the keys of their turnaround was stability in the o-line, which stabilized Cam Newton. The Cam Newton of the past four weeks was the same guy that led a 12-4 team last year. Rank: 4th.
Coaching: It's weird to lob some praise for a team that went 7-8-1, but let's look at the team that went 4-1 and the coaching staff that took them there. Ron Rivera basically controls that defense, and his personnel changes keyed the defensive resurgence, like removing Thomas Decoud in favor of Tre Boston and inserting Bene Benwikere. The offense itself schemes well and gets their limited players into space and allows them to make plays. I like this staff more than most, and I like Ron Rivera's go-for-it mentality. Rank: 2nd.
Top-2 Seed That They Could Beat = Seahawks: The Seahawks and Panthers have played two extremely close games in the last two seasons. The Seahawks won 12-7 and 13-9, both times scoring late TD drives to win the game. The Panthers defense can do well against that running game, and stop the TEs and RBs that Wilson uses a lot, and have the defensive speed to track Russell Wilson. On offense, I'm not sure how they would score, but I like their chances against a team they've barely lost to than the team they trailed 35-3 against (Green Bay).
3.) Dallas Cowboys (12-4 = 467-352)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 467 ptf (5th), 352 pta (15th), +115 ptd (5th), 6,122 ydf (7th), 5,681 yda (19th)
= Outsiders: +13.8% team (6th), +17.0% off (4th), +4.1% def (22nd), +0.9% st (12th)
Offense: I don't know if they're better on offense than they were in 2007, but they are definitely more efficient. They turn the ball over less, move the ball more, and are basically an ultra-efficient 1990's offense playing in the 2010s. It is horrifying that Demarco Murray was given nearly 400 carries, especially when primary backup Lance Dunbarr averaged nearly 7 yards per carry. The offense stayed healthy and their top players played well. Tony Romo was #2 in DVOA this season, and #5 in DYAR despite missing two games. Jason Witten had his best season in years. Dez Bryant stayed healthy and focused and scored 16 TDs on just 85 catches. Finally, that o-line is sturdy, is the best run-blocking line in the NFL and keeps Romo upright. They've built a throw-back offense that works so well. They are great in most of the per-drive stats, ranking Top-5 in Yards/drive, points/drive (2nd), and red zone efficiency (3rd). They do everything well, and even though they are doing it in a way that is feels more a home in 1994 than 2014, doesn't mean the Cowboys are bad. In fact, if they go deep, or continue this efficiency in 2015, it may be an interesting case study and example that running and building a great o-line is the new market inefficiency in the NFL. Rank: 2nd.
Defense: The Cowboys defense was a laughing stock coming into 2014. They followed up a franchise-worst defense in 2012 (Hello, Rob Ryan!) with an ever more absurd 2013 group. Well, despite losing Sean Lee and letting Demarcus Ware walk, they improved to below average, which is nice. They rank 22nd in total defensive DVOA, 22nd against the pass and 23rd against the run. They are top half against #3+ WRs, RBs and TEs, but their main corners struggle a lot against top weapons. Their pass rush sorely misses Demarcus Ware, ranking poorly in hits and sacks. There are a couple areas where the Cowboys (relatively) excel in, and they both align with what a good Tampa-2 defense should do. They are the top team in the NFL in forcing turnovers per drive. They also force more field goals than all but two teams. Giving up scores of yards is mititaged when you force a ton of fumbles and force teams to kick field goals. That won't save them overall, as turnovers dry up in the playoffs, but that is a pretty noticeable area to rank really well in. Better that than the alternative of being average to worse in everything. Rank: 6th
Quarterback: I'm not a proponent of 'QB Playoff Winzz' so I do believe that Tony Romo is better than Russell Wilson. You can make some argument he was better than Rodgers this year. I won't personally, but the argument is there. Romo was amazingly accurate this season, with a completion percentage close to 70%, and above 72% over the past 8 games. Romo was the most efficient QB in the NFL this season, and the one knock is he didn't have to throw as much as others. He still did more in fewer throws than most. Rank: 2nd.
Coaching: I had a hard time placing the Cowboys coaching staff. Jason Garrett owns that offense that suceeded all year long as arguably the most ruthlessly efficient and consistent offense in the league at both running and passing. There is some blame to go around for the decision to give Demarco 400 carries, but that is a bigger problem for 2015. The defense improved and played above its talent level with Rod Marinelli involved, which is nice. Overall, their time management and game management issues hurt them in my eyes, but that is a good staff overall. Rank: 5th.
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Seahawks: Because, well, we've seen it. The Cowboys haven't beaten the Packers since that Favre TNF game in 2007. They even lost to a Matt Flynn led team last year after leading by a bunch. As for Seattle, they went into Seattle and smacked them. The game was close because the Seahawks scored 17 points on drives that went less than 30 yards. The Cowboys physically mauled them up front and outgained Seattle 2-1. That won't happen again, but the same matchup edges exist.
2.) Green Bay Packers (12-4 = 484-348)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 486 ptf (1st), 348 pta (13th), +138 ptd (3rd), 6,178 ydf (6th), 5,542 (15th)
= Outsiders: +23.3% team (3rd), +24.6% off (1st), -1.0% def (16th), -2.3% st (22nd)
Offense: It starts and ends with Aaron Rodgers, the best QB in the NFL. Rodgers finished 1st in DVOA, and slightly behind Roethlisberger, who threw the ball ~50 more times. Rodgers' 38-5 TD/INT is just sickeningly good. You have to adjust for era a lot, but statistically he's the modern day Steve Young, someone who has mastered the things that make you good by QB rating. He may be somewhat limited in the playoffs if that calf injury reaggravates, but the Packers looked decent using Rodgers exclusively as a pocket passer on Sunday. Cobb and Nelson were both Top-7 in both DYAR/DVOA for WRs, being the best and most perfectly meshed, WR duo in the NFL. Rodgers is even more comfortable using Richard Rodgers as a TE this year. They score more points than anyone per drive, score more TDs than anyone, and go three-and-out less than all but two teams. They are the best offense in the NFL, and with Eddie Lacy healthy and good for the past 10 games they can beat you running the ball as well (they ended up #6 in rushing DVOA; that is bumped up by Rodgers himself). The Packers had some notable struggles on the road against good defenses (Seattle, Detroit, Buffalo), but it isn't like many teams dominated those defenses on the road. What sets this Packers offense apart from their other recent teams aside from 2011 (when they were unhuman) is their o-line gives Rodgers plenty of time this season; scary, scary stuff. Rank: 1st.
Defense: The Packers defense is probably better than you think but also worse than you think at the same time. They have mitigated some of the problems that faced their defenses from 2011-2013, but they do also excel in the areas those teams excel in. They rarely give up big gains on the ground. They are Top-5 in creating takeaways, something the Packers have seemingly done well throughout the Rodgers era. The Packers defense is better against the pass, but their corners are tasked with playing a lot of man coverage which doesn't always work. The Packers are perfectly slightly above average across the board in pass defense, ranking between 9-16 against #1/#2/#3+/TEs/RBs in DVOA. It's not great to not have any area where you excel, but its also good to have no true weakness to attack. The Packers won't win because of this defense, but they have enough athletes, and a scheme that can create enough mismatches, to make the 3-4 stops necessary to win games. Rank: 5th
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers is great. He's the best QB in the NFL right now. He's the best quantitatively (highest passer rating, best DVOA, best DYAR if you include rushing, etc., etc.), or qualitatively (he can do things no one else can dream of). Rodgers may be effected by that calf injury, but with a full two weeks off (Packers play the Sunday early window in the Divisional Round), I'm more worried about a re-aggravation than the current one hampering him. Rodgers is incredibly quick with his delivery, can fire them on the run (when perfectly healthy) to his right or to his left, and with a better o-line, his sack issue is even lessened. Rank: 1st.
Coaching: We tend to focus too much on what a coach does on Game Day. We criticize the 4th down calls, the punts, the use of timeouts. However, what happens the other 165 hours that are not game day is far more important. That is where McCarthy excels, building game plans that utilize each member of the Packers offensive skill players. Dom Capers defense played well this year and showed more flexibility than in years past. Rank: 3rd.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (12-4 = 394-254)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 394 ptf (10th), 254 pta (1st), +140 23ptd (2nd), 6,012 (9th), 4,274 yda ((1st)
= Outsiders: +31.3% team (1st), +16.7% off (5th), -16.3% def (1st), -1.7% st (19th)
Offense: The Seahawks offense generally looks better by advanced metrics since they never turn it over and throw deep more often than most teams. That said, I still think the numbers from Outsiders overrates the Seahawks offense. They are the best rushing attack in the NFL, mainly because Russell Wilson had probably the best rushing season by a QB since Michael Vick's Atlanta days, or at least Cam Newton in his rookie season. The Seahawks are a middling red zone offense, and very average in passing the ball. Quietly, Russell Wilson got worse as a passer in 2014. Some of that could be injuries to o-line and weapons, but he was less accurate. Wilson ended up 16th in DYAR and DVOA. Not great. The passing attack has no one great weapon, but Paul Richardson played well as the season went along. Still, this is all about the running game. Marshawn Lynch had another fantastic season, placing 3rd in rushing DVOA and DYAR. Even backups Christian Michel and Michael Turbin played. I don't know if it is really an improvement in run blocking, or Lynch and Russell Wilson turning disaster into 20 yard gains, but the Seahawks can grind clock as good as any team. They just better hope they don't fall behind by more than 7 late, because I don't know if the 2014 Seahawks passing offense can bring them back. Rank: 3rd.
Rank: The 2013 Seahawks definitely cratered in teh middle of the season, when Bobby Wagner got hurt, and Red Bryant went on IR. Bryant is obviously not coming back, but Wagner did and the Seahawks went on a 2000 Ravens type run of stopping teams. Against average opponents (Cardsx2, 49ersx2, Eagles, Rams), the Seahawks gave up just 33 points, not giving up a TD on four occasions, and giving up no more than 245 yards. Speaking of yards, they gave up ~550 fewer yards than any other team, and ever since following their loss to Dallas, gave up over 300 yards just once (their win over the Giants). All in all, they gave up fewer yards than the 2013 Seahawks did. Still, before people think this team is that team, there are some areas of concern. Their pass rush improved from awful to league average, but it is still league average. They finished #3 in passing defense DVOA, and had a weakness against TEs that last year's team did not. Overall they were the 2nd worse #1 defensive DVOA in Football Outsiders history. They are awful in the red zone, ranking 3rd worst in giving up points per red zone trip. They are just league average at forcing takeaways. There are some negatives there. Of course, they're still the best defense in the NFL, suffocating opponents all year since Dallas overpowered them.. Rank: 1st
Quarterback: I thought about putting Cam Newton ahead of Russell, but then I came to my senses and left that haterade behind. Still, Wilson definitely regressed at a QBs main job, which is passing effectively. He finished 14th in DYAR and 15th in DVOA, which is probably around right. There were fewer weapons for him this year, but not too far worse than last year or the year before. Wilson got worse as a passer. Luckily for him and Seattle, he's the best running QB in the NFL since Michael Vick's prime. Rank: 3rd.
Coaching: Pete Carroll's defense took the challenge of increased scrutiny on contact and holding and responded by playing basically the same anyway. Carroll gets that team motivated like few others and his scheme has turned the Seahawks into a monster once again on defense. Bevell's offense has adjusted to more run heavy than in year's past, which showed good ability to respond to personnel and strength changes. This Seahawks coaching staff is on a roll right now. Rank: 1st.
